Latest / The Dutch Investors / #57 | Palantir decoded | AI king or selling smoke? w/ Type-F Capital

Transcript

#57 | Palantir decoded | AI king or selling smoke? w/ Type-F Capital · The Dutch Investors

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back to the Dutch Investors Podcast.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'm your host, Simon, and today I'm talking to Amir, the mind behind Type F capital.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: If you're on Substack and into quality research, we recommend you checking him out.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: He's a unique guy, mostly sitting in his office and reading annual reports and looking at his Excel sheets, which makes him even more interesting to talk to.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: He's also very deep and knowledgeable about companies like Tesla, Robinhood, PayPal, SP Global, and of course Palantir.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Now we'll be honest, we've been on the fence with Palantir.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: It's one of those companies that is both extremely interesting and at the same time it feels like it's priced for perfection.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: So we wanted to sit down with someone who's looked at Palantir inside out from the technology behind it, the business model, and ask what exactly does Palantir do?
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Why is it so hard to understand?
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Is the growth justified?
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: Can it sustain this level of valuation?
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: What's their secret?
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: And so much more.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Please enjoy today's episode with Amir.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Is that how I pronounce your name?
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's probably correct.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: My parents are from Bosnia, but I'm born and raised in Sweden, so I don't actually know myself, but probably around some something like that.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: Amir?
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I'll just say uh Amir for now.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for uh taking the time to uh come on this show.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, building AI and software companies is difficult, but putting a toddler to bet, that that's probably a real challenge.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, very unpredictable, you know.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: No large language model can solve that consistently, so we'll see.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: But now we're here, ready, ready to go, ready to record.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: Awesome, awesome.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I asked you specifically, because you're pretty deep into technology companies, especially uh Palantir.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, look at the hat.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's the Palantir hat, right?
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, yes, Palantir Merch sold out.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it's uh it's uh quite funny, you know.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: I've been wearing Palantir Merch ever since I got it, like in every YouTube video on my channel.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: But still, when I do, we have this uh Palantir Weekly show.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you're familiar with it, over on Amit Kukrija's channel.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: If you know uh Amit, he's a very big content creator, and I'm called like the biggest Palantir Bear.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: Even though I like have the merch, I post about the company all the time.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: You know, uh I analyze it constantly, but everyone just calls me like the biggest Palantir bear.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: So it's quite an interesting dynamic.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, interesting.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I'd love to hear more about that later.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Palantir is a special company, it it seems like there are two camps with Palantir.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: The first camp absolutely loves the company, what they do, and they see its potential and the the future.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: And the other camp is just baffled by the valuation.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, 100 times revenue, 600 times earnings.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: So are you in one of these camps or are you somewhere in between?
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Do you own any Palantir?
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I've had Palantir probably a bit after DPO.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: I thought it was overvalued at DPO, but uh shortly after, you know, it uh went up to like around 40 and then it dropped to around 10th.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_01: And that's when I thought that it would make sense to actually invest in the company at the time.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: So, since probably the tenths, like a year or so after it went public, I've held the shares ever since.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, definitely Palantir is one of those very polarizing stocks, you know, even management is very, very polarizing.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you've caught any Alex Carp interviews, which is a CEO, but uh the fan base is very much like uh the CEO, like very, very um polarizing and and out there.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm not in a specific camp, uh, which is why I said some people call me a bear because I'm very rooted in um numbers.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_01: I don't you know dream away different kinds of scenarios.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_01: I like to have a narrative for the stock, which is very important when you value businesses, as I'm very focused on doing, you know, intrinsic valuation.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: So you have to have a narrative, but that narrative also has to result in some kind of number, some kind of output.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: So when you're valuing a business, you might think like when Elon goes out and says, like, yeah, as soon as we solve autonomy, it's gonna be 30 trillion.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: I'm like, dude, how do you reach that?
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it it has to be anchored, it has to be rooted in something.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: So uh I'm I'm in that camp that sees the narrative, I see where the company is going, I've been seeing it, but I still I'm very cautious about you know letting myself dream away some really unrealistic scenarios, which some investors might do uh from time to time.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, that's the camp I'm in.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: What whatever, whichever one that is in between the two, I guess.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I guess so.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: So when Palantir IPO'd, DPO, yeah.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I I oh okay.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: I remember a lot of people investing in it, a lot of my friends, but also many people asking us what the company is actually doing, and I I think it it's a fascinating company, but at the same time it's pretty difficult to really grasp what they do, I guess.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's a very secretive company.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: So if you had to explain it to someone that just started out or to like uh maybe even a child, what Palantir does, how would you describe that?
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: You know, at the time when they DPO'd, it was very limited the amount of information that was out there to the public.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: They were primarily, you know, uh government contractors, they had some very large commercial clients, you know, Airbus is one of those BP, but they weren't really focused on, you know, the commercial side of the business.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_01: So it was very, very hidden to the public what their different products actually did.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: But since then, I mean they've been very open.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: They held uh different conventions first for the foundry product, and now since they launched the AIP, which is their AI platform, that's literally what AIP stands for.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: They've had multiple, like I think they're up to five, six AIP cons where clients actually come up on stage, they're not paid to do it, they're happy to do it, and they show, like, okay, this is how we use Palantir, this is how we get value out of the product, this is why we pay for Palantir.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: So, for those that are very curious, I mean, there are many examples out there publicly where you can just see, like, okay.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: And the thing that makes it very difficult for people to actually grasp, like put it into one single category, is that the platforms themselves can be used for so many different kinds of use cases.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I remember when I first invested in Palantir, they dropped like a 30-second uh ad on on YouTube.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_01: It's still up there if you search on YouTube, Palantir redacted, it's a 30-second clip, and there's like this military kind of um advertisement, and at the end they say we're operational across so many different sectors, and then they list them.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_01: They're like healthcare, logistics, like manufacturing, like they list all of these sectors.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'm like, how can one product be operational across like 50 different sectors and industries?
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: And that was what actually fascinated me about the company.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_01: But in short, they have different products, so it's not like they only do one thing, but they provide uh a suite of products, mainly as the Palantir employees themselves say, they provide a way for you to extract value from your business.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: So you might say it's a data analytics company, but more importantly, they allow you to connect uh the data inside your business to actually make decisions based on that.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: So it's different for every company that uses Palantir.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: It's not like there's a one solution, like when you buy um, let's say Salesforce, for example, it's not like you have this standardized product and everyone does the same.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: Like, like, no, they have different solutions built on top of Palantir's platforms, which is why it's difficult to just narrow it down to one single thing.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_01: And that's why I think people have a really difficult time grasping exactly what Palantir does.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: There's just so many different kinds of solutions out there, and they're solving so many different kinds of business use cases across so many different sectors.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: It's not like one single thing, but they, in short, provide a platform which uses your data, your business data, which then allows you to, for the most part, for most use cases that I've seen, it allows you to monitor and be it logistics.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: For example, uh, one of the earliest commercial customers, as I mentioned, was Airbus.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: So, uh Airbus, for those that don't know, is an airplane manufacturer.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_01: One use case there was they did the preventive maintenance.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_01: So they monitor each part on the plane, and as you might imagine, there's like thousands of bolts and nuts and different engines and a lot of different different stuff, a lot of different suppliers to get those parts.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: It's not like it's sourced for from only one part.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: There's logistics to getting that part to the plane.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: So what they did was they can, before anything actually goes wrong with the plane, the software actually flagged it.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: Like you should probably replace this part now before it actually causes an issue.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: Which is why if you've been following the news, Airbus, I don't think has had a single accident.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: Meanwhile, Boeing that doesn't use Palantir has not been looking too hot lately.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: So that's like one of the use cases.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_01: There's just so many.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: If someone is interested, you can just go and look at AIP cons on YouTube where different people from different industries actually present the product like, okay, here's how we use Palantir.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: Now, as a viewer or as an analyst, of course, you don't know what the like let's say uh a hospital is presenting their use case.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, you you you don't know all the KPIs associated with healthcare, or maybe a biotech company presents how they use Palantir.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, you're not gonna be familiar, but one thing that everyone can understand, no matter what background you have, is when someone tells you this used to take 10 people nine months to do with Palantir, we can do it in five seconds.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone can understand the language of time and efficiency.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_01: So that's really what, as an analyst or potential investor in the company, that's what you should focus on.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_01: You will never like grasp every single use case because there's just so many.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they're up to soon 900 customers.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone uses it differently.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_01: You're never gonna understand each use case.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: But when someone tells you how they're extracting value, how much time they're saving, that's really what you should focus on when you try to look into Palantir.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: So, what makes a Palantir different from, say, uh a Snowflake or maybe even Microsoft offering certain um solutions?
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: And do you think other big tech companies with the amount of capital they have could do a similar thing if they really invested in uh capital and time into it, or will that be difficult?
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's never impossible to have competitors, but it's very difficult to compete with a product that has taken like uh 20 years to reach where they are now, and it's highly uh the the thing that differentiates Palantir from different product offerings, Snowflake, for example, is basically uh a data lake where like uh 60% of the company is just salespeople, like it doesn't have the capabilities at all.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: Now, Microsoft you know has a large suite of products, they do a lot of different things.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_01: I'm guessing you're talking about the fabric, the the platform.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's not comparable.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_01: The thing that sets Palantir apart and makes it very difficult to replicate is the thing that they call an ontology.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: So you the way to think about the ontology, which is often mentioned by the CEO Alex Carp, you know, earnings calls when he does conventions, conferences, he always mentions the ontology.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_01: And to my understanding, the ontology is a way to have a representation of data with it inside your company, but it has multiple properties.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_01: So, for example, let's say that you have an image file, like a JPEG.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_01: It will have the image, it might have some you know metadata inside that JPEG file, but that's it.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_01: That that's all it does.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: Now, in the ontology, a single object can have like so many different types of data, like it can tell you these sort of suppliers.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: Let's say it's a simple bolt, like the Airbus, because we talked about it.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: It might inside that single representation of data, it might say the supplier of the bolt, uh, how long it takes to ship, it constantly might uh keep track of the logistics to get that bolt.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_01: It might also represent the type of metal, it might represent how many are needed inside that airplane.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: Like this single piece of representation of data can have so many different properties, and that's what they use mainly to get the advantage.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_01: And that's why they say that when you use Palantir platform with different LLMs, that the LLM gets the whole context of your business.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: They they often say that like LLMs are a commodity, it doesn't matter which model you use, why not use all models at the same time, which you can do with Palantir, by the way, because the LLM actually has the whole context of your business from the ontology.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I don't know if you've ever used an LLM.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: I've I've I've tried some coding, it's very difficult to have it um to have the different models keep track of your whole code base, you know, across different files, the whole file structures, what you're trying to build.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: It often loses context, it might break some part when it implements a new part.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_01: There's there's a lot of problems with context.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: You don't get that with Palantir because of the ontology.
• 14:17
  SPEAKER_01: And to my understanding, that is the kind of moat that Palantir Software has, what they often refer to as the ontology.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: Now, keep in mind that I am not the technical guy, so I can only this this is what I can grasp as an analyst of what the ontology is.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_01: There are a lot of Palantir employees on X lately that try to break these technical things down in simple terms for you to understand.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: So for those that are really curious about the ontology, there is a lot of information available directly from Palantir employees, basically trying to educate everyone, trying to say we're not a black box.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: News media might portray us as like a black box, but that's not really the case.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: Here's what we actually do.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_01: Um, all of that is available for the curious mind.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think it has helped Palantir to be a little bit more open about this.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: I found one uh thread on X um a couple couple months ago where he explained the ontology, uh the layer, and he basically said, think about a very messy room, uh, and you've got stuff everywhere: Lego in a drawer, school papers, um, a bed, your bed with uh socks and a video game on the floor, and it basically just keeps track of where everything is, um, and it just has like this map.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: And if you just ask where is my science homework from last week, it it knows where it is and where you put it.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: And it was a very simple I'm I'm not a technical guy either, so it was a really simple way of just having a little bit of a sense of what it does, right?
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, and I had another very simple, basic um explanation from a community member that really makes like his whole mission.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_01: Basically, it's a Korean guy on X, his whole mission is to spread Palantir to like the Korean investor community.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: And he made like a such a simple example that is easy to grasp.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: So you are looking at me right now, I have a Palantir hat on.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: When you're looking at me, you can see I have a hat, it is white, and there's a Palantir logo.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: That's like all you can see.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: But within the ontology, you know the price, you you know how much it costs to manufacture, you know the material, you know the what the in inside is like you get all of these properties.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like what you can observe is just a white hat with a Palantir logo, and that that I'm wearing it.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_01: But within the ontology, you get so many different properties attached to it that is not like visible to the naked eye.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_01: And that's the way I view the uh the way I understand how the ontology works.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: So I remember when Palantir came to the public markets, most of its revenue came from um like military intelligence governments revenue.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I mean, we've seen reports about them helping with things like drone strikes.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_00: I I saw a couple interviews with um a CEO uh that basically said, Yeah, sometimes our software kills, basically, is what he said.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_00: Defense contracts, usually from uh like an ethical standpoint, this keeps a lot of investors away, but for some reason it doesn't really for Palantir.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: I know this can be a sensitive topic, but I'm just curious how you think about all of this from like an ethical standpoint.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: And I know they're kind of moving away from it a little bit, but they're still helping military intelligence uh governments with uh with their software.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: So uh what is your view or or opinion on that?
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it's not true.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it was about a 50% split.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, the earliest quarter that we actually have data for from the S1 is Q3 of 2019, which is before uh the DPO.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_01: And at that point, uh it was about a 50-50 split, and then you know it rocks back and forward, you know, depending on the quarter.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_01: But basically, half the business was uh government, and actually today it is more government than it was in 2019.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: Now it's 55-45 splits, so you know it goes back and forward.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but you have to keep in mind Palantir's whole mission, whole mission statement is to um empower the West.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_01: And that uh entails being heavily within the um how how how would we say it?
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like the the Western ideology?
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I mean people always try to put it like in a compartment, but basically they're they're trying to empower the West.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: They believe that the West is superior, they they say it outright.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: They say that they believe that uh oppressive regimes in the East are wrong, they they go about it the wrong way.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: So they value Western values basically, and that's what they're trying to protect.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: And common use case for that is the Department of Defense.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: And yes, they are active in Ukraine, in Israel, because they believe that they are protecting the West by doing so.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, even inside Ukraine when the conflict with Russia started, they offered the software for free.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they didn't even charge Ukraine for using it.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_01: And that entails like, okay, but what do they exactly do?
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, we can't know that, but uh famously they are uh quoted or or speculated to have uh helped find Osama bin Laden, for example.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: So there are many statements by the CEO.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: Like, if you guys only knew how many potential how many terror attacks we stopped before they actually happened, like you would be shocked.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, he's talking specifically about Europe and even like uh in the US.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_01: Like they are doing a lot of stuff in the background, which is just not public for obvious reasons.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_01: And when you invest in Palantir, you have to understand that yes, this company will be very active across the Department of Defense, they will do what they believe is right for Western values, they will protect the West, and um yeah, they they will oppose anything that goes against that.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: So, in terms of ethics, I think uh there's a big misconception.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we've been seeing like, oh, they're using they're building a database to surveil Americans.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they've publicly turned down governments in the West, allies to the US have asked for this historically.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they are on record saying this, like allies, you know, large Western nations have wanted to build databases to surveil uh their own citizens, which they have said no to because they do have ethics, they do have standards, they are not trying to you know oppress people.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_01: Like that that is completely against what they do.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_01: So, as a person that believes in the West, that lives in the West, I'm very happy knowing that Palantir exists to protect me and my values.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't see any ethical issues.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, there are always two sides to the conflict, no one wants to see civilians die.
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm sure Palantir all agree with that.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: Actually, using Palantir, you're probably minimizing the amount of civilian casualties in these conflicts because you have superior targeting and stuff like that.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: So, actually, if you believe in ethics and you believe in the West, you want Palantir to be there because they will minimize civilian casualties, they will hopefully bring conflicts to an end quicker.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it's a very deep rabbit hole, it is very political.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: Some people say that because Peter Thiel is a co founder, that they are obviously a very right wing company now, like now on under Trump, they are thriving.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: But the the truth is that Alex Carp, the CEO, is actually left and he has donated to the Biden campaign, for example.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, both co founders, two of the Co-founders, Peter Thiel, is very right openly.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: Alex Carp the CEO is very left.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not like a political spectrum to them.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_01: They're just like single mission, protect the West and uh uh empower the West.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_01: They they want the West to win no matter what.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: That kind of builds up perfectly towards uh the question I I have.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: You said they want to empower the West.
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds great.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: So, how how how does that work?
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: Can they sell their solutions to multiple countries and governments?
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_00: Let's say both Canada, the UK, Europe, the United States all want Palantir solutions.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: Apparently they're they're the very best.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_00: They're all Western areas, so I don't see a problem there.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: But imagine Europe and the United States going to war.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: How does that and they both leverage Palantir's software, for example?
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_00: Do you have any idea how that would play out or software-wise?
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: No.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_01: No.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_01: I have never speculated about such a scenario where Europe goes to West to the US.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: I can tell you this much.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_01: If you are an investor in at all, Palantir or any other country, the least of your concern when these two countries go to war as an investor is like will Palantir stock go down because they they lose a client.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: That's gonna be the least of your worries.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_01: I can tell you that much.
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_01: So, no, I've never hypothesized this scenario where Europe goes to West with the US.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_01: And I truly hope for all of our sakes that that is never the case at all.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_01: And actually, they themselves believe that by showing strength and power and having extreme superiority, that that is the way to sustainable peace.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_01: Basically, he says it publicly.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm referring to the CEO Alex Carp.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_01: He says that the the best way, the pet the best path to peace is to just make everyone else so scared of you that they don't even think twice about going to war with you.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_01: So that's that's their philosophy on uh what they're trying to do.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_01: Referring to China and Russia and so forth, yeah.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think that's a great way of putting it.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_00: That kind of puts it in perspective, and yeah, that would be the the least of your worries, then uh suppose.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's like if people are like, well, if Russia starts a nuclear war, uh, which stocks should you own?
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_01: I'm like, dude, it's gonna be the least of your worries which stocks you're in if a nuclear, global nuclear war breaks out, which stocks you own is probably gonna be the least of your worries.
• 24:23
  SPEAKER_00: You want a nuclear shelter, that's what you want.
• 24:26
  SPEAKER_00: So you you spoke a little bit about the uh AIP, the uh AI platform.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: I've heard a lot of buzz about it.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: Is that just like their solutions enhanced by AI?
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: Is that basically it?
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_00: Or I've seen a couple like real Palantir bulls, but some also some investors that are really deep into Palantir that this might drive their revenue growth even further, like even harder now.
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_00: What is that kind of what what does it do?
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: So basically, in simple terms, it is the the interface of interacting with LLMs basically.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_01: So they do have different platforms, and then within those platforms, you can use AIP.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: So Foundry is the platform that is used on the commercial side, and then they have Gotham, which is used on the government side.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_01: So they have two separate platforms depending on if it's uh civilian use or uh not not civilian, uh commercial use or government use, and then AIP is basically the interface of interacting and leveraging models, so that could be through chat.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: Uh sometimes the the solution doesn't even need a chat interface, like it just like has functions that queries LLMs and stuff like that.
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_01: So it's basically just an interface, but the launch of AIP signaled the biggest turning turning point in the commercial story for Palantir because prior to the launch of AIP, they didn't really have a way to sell the product.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_01: Now, if uh someone has looked at uh Palantir's uh revenue, uh the quarter they unveiled AIP, they had gone from uh basically a peak of 57% year-over-year growth in Q1 of 2020, steadily dwindling down all the way to 13%.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: So it had been going down quarter after quarter after quarter, all the way down to 13%.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: And and by that point, a lot of people had like given up hope on Palantir.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_01: Those that really didn't understand the dynamic of uh the software, the mission, and what the company is trying to do.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: So during that quarter, um first half of 2023, they launched AIP, and with that, they solved all of their problems.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_01: So the biggest problem they had is that they didn't have anyone to sell the product, and when you don't sell the product, it's kind of hard to grow.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, second, they didn't have a way to really scale their products within current customers.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_01: So let's say that you are paying for foundry, you might pay a lot, like they didn't have a lot of customers, but they like the the cost for the software was incredibly high.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_01: So, sure, you're getting a lot of revenue from that one customer, but like the customer isn't really increasing their spending, there's not a reason for them to do that.
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_01: So they had two big pro problems, which was scaling and actually selling the product, because the CEO was actually calling up and doing like one-on-one meetings trying to sell the product, no one wanted to talk to Palantir.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_01: Palantir, while they have been active for like 20 years, um they weren't really known.
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_01: Like, still, I still believe that they're not really known across like a wider space.
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_01: If if you go to any um tech guy, IT guy or software engineer, or and you ask, do you know what Palantir is?
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: Still to this day, probably most would not know.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_01: If you go back two years, surely like 90% had no idea what Palantir was.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_01: Now, because the stock went up, they they got a um better reputation, it is more obvious, and and a lot more people know them.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: But they had that big issue, like, okay, no one is selling the software, revenue growth is slowing down, and we have no way to scale current customers.
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_01: With the launch of AIP, they did something genius because as they've always been saying, like, okay, we have the best software in the world, like they've been saying that for the longest time.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: The thing is, those are just empty words unless you can actually show it to someone.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: And no one wants to sit down and have you show them the product, especially since there's only one guy selling it, the CEO.
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: So they had they had a big problem.
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_01: With the launch of AIP, they also launched a new go-to-market strategy called boot camps.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_01: So, what they do is they gather one to six customers on average, is like what we understand.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: And then during a one to three day period, those customers actually build solutions using AIP, which immediately provide value to their business.
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_01: It's not like you they have a PowerPoint tech, like, okay, if you do this, it will gonna it's gonna take a few months of implementation, and then maybe you can get some business results, maybe you can increase this KPI.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: Like, it's not like no, you sit down, you build something right then and there that is actually valuable, and the conversion rate of that has been really, really high.
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_01: Like a lot of people, like when they actually sit down and see the product, that's when you really started to grow the customer count on the commercial side.
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_01: That was really concentrated in the US, so that's why US commercial revenue growth has been exploding ever since the launch of AIP.
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: It's been accelerating basically every quarter since then.
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_01: So they sold a way to actually show people their their product.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: So still, they they don't have a sales force, they just invite companies to sit down, like, okay, let's build something, and then that product sells itself because they're able to show you right then and there, like why this is the best software in in the world.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_01: And no other company does this.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_01: I know that um Snowflake has tried to start doing some boot camps, for example, as as of late, trying to imitate the the Palantir model, but like Palantir is just so versatile that no matter what kind of business you have, if you're in healthcare, if you're in logistics, if you're like oil and gas, no matter where you are, you can build something of value within those one to three days.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_01: And that's really, really powerful.
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_01: So, with that, they solved a way to get people to see their product, they they sold their sales, and the most important part, AIP, is priced based on usage.
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_01: So, similarly to a lot of LLMs out there, uh, if you use an LLM a lot, you're gonna need a lot of tokens, you're gonna need to pay a lot, right?
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_01: Similarly, with with AIP, if you just use it to solve one use case within your business, you know, uh you might pay a little bit, but as soon as you start like, okay, it really works for this use case, let's start to implement it across our whole business.
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, from some reports that we got from a Wall Street um equity research piece back in December of last year, so about half a year ago, uh a bit more, we saw that some customers said that they 2 to 3x'd how much they pay Palantir on an annual basis just from implementing AIP because they're seeing so much value from it, they're implementing it to solve a lot more use cases than they originally did.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_01: So they maybe try small, Palantir doesn't see a lot of revenue, but over time, as people start to believe in the product, they implement it for more and more use cases, and that's what's really been driving the revenue growth.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_01: Because I I don't know if you've seen this, Palantir grew 48% in Q2 this year, which is you know um very, very strong to have a 48% year-over-year revenue growth.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: But the most important part here is that 28 of that 48, so a majority, can came from existing clients, not new ones.
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_01: It's not like they're they're selling to new ones, no.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_01: 28%, almost 30% growth year over year is just from existing clients paying Palantir more and more and more for each passing quarter because they're implementing AIP more and more and more across their business.
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: So they sold a way to sell the product and they sold a way to actually scale the product, which is has been really, really powerful for the business ever since that you know Q2 quarter in 2023.
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_01: AIP has been really what Palantir needed.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_00: As a shareholder for Palantir, what do you look for in Palantir to see whether you should get rid of it or hold it or buy even more potentially?
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: What metrics do you personally track if you had to like push it down to like a maximum of three KPIs?
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_00: What would you track?
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_01: Me personally, as an investor, I only care about intrinsic value.
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_01: I I don't care.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_01: I don't track any pricing metrics like P or price sales.
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_01: I only care about intrinsic value value.
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_00: No, I don't I don't mean I don't mean evaluation metrics, I mean more like uh fundamental metrics.
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_00: Do you mostly track like revenue per employee or do you track revenue growth or what's important to to see the the health of the business, you mean?
• 33:24
  SPEAKER_01: Like okay, the the okay, if I had to narrow it down to three key, I made this on an ex post a while ago.
• 33:30
  SPEAKER_01: I kind of forgot what I wrote.
• 33:31
  SPEAKER_01: But on on the top of my head, the the cohort growth or net dollar retention, which shows you how much are existing clients spending.
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_01: Because when we talk about revenue growth, a large question is like, okay, they're growing 48% today, but what about a year from now, two years from now, three years from now?
• 33:52
  SPEAKER_01: And why net dollar retention or like the cohort growth, like how much existing clients are growing?
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_01: That really serves as like a sustainability check.
• 34:02
  SPEAKER_01: Like, okay, how sustainable is the revenue growth?
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_01: And when you have a majority of the revenue growth coming from existing clients, that gives you a lot of confidence that the uh revenue growth that you are seeing is really sustainable.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_01: So the first one is net dollar retention, very, very important.
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_01: The next one, I would say, is the rule of 40, which basically tells you the quality of growth that the company has.
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_01: So, do you do you want me to explain the rule of 40 for the listeners?
• 34:31
  SPEAKER_00: Or do we it's something where uh profitability and growth has to be above 40, right?
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_00: Something like that.
• 34:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so uh for uh SaaS companies, uh typically you measure the quality of growth using rule of 40.
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_01: It is not a gap metric, so they kind of freely define it.
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_01: But in essence, when you combine uh growth with profitability, those two together should equal 40 or above to tell you that okay, this is sustainable, this is high quality.
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_01: So, for example, uh you might have a company that is growing 50% year over year, but there might be like negative 30% margins.
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_01: So that gives you like a score of 20.
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_01: So 50% growth uh minus 30 um uh profitability, it gives you a score of 20.
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_01: That's kind of low quality growth because anyone can like go and MA like uh 10 companies and have a lot of growth, but it it doesn't show you that it's like high quality growth.
• 35:35
  SPEAKER_01: So um when you combine profitability with growth, it should equal 40 or above.
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_01: And when when we're talking about Palantir, in the SaaS space, they're really in a class of their own.
• 35:47
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they're recorded a score of 94 the past quarter, which we which is up from 84, which is already crazy.
• 35:54
  SPEAKER_01: And then uh the quarter before that was 81.
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_01: So we're talking like a highly uh profitable company, also increasing like their revenue growth rate, and it's increasing like quarter per quarter per quarter.
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_01: So that's really important way to track like okay, they might be growing a lot, but is it like high quality growth?
• 36:14
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, they are increasing their margins as they're growing, which typically a company often focuses like, okay, are we in growth mode or are we in profitability mode?
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_01: Seldomly do you see both exploding at the same time.
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_01: Typically, you have to sacrifice one for the other, but for Palantir, I mean they are off the charts in both growth and profitability.
• 36:37
  SPEAKER_01: So the rule of 40 would be the second one, and then the third one, just to uh add to the first one I mentioned is just the customer count growth.
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_01: Because as we know, a majority of the growth is coming from existing clients, which makes it very important to keep growing that uh client count.
• 36:57
  SPEAKER_01: So those three KPIs are the ones that I would say is the most important, but of course, as with any investment, you should track the whole business basically.
• 37:08
  SPEAKER_01: Like, don't judge it just you know laser focus on on one or two metrics, like you should look at the company as a whole.
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_00: Since going public, I mean Parent's stock price has increased by 1800% since the pullback in October 2020, since its lows, uh to a 420 billion dollar market cap, roughly.
• 37:30
  SPEAKER_00: You just said you only care about intrinsic value.
• 37:33
  SPEAKER_00: What do you mean by that?
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_00: How do how do you personally approach like a valuation for Palantir?
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the way uh okay, so this might come off very strange to your listeners, but looking at a PE ratio or price to sales, it is not valuation, it is pricing.
• 37:51
  SPEAKER_01: Now, of course, even Wall Street themselves, and when you tune into CNBC, they will often mention PE ratios or price to sales ratios in relation to the valuation of the company.
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_01: But it is not nothing to do with the value, it has to do with the pricing.
• 38:07
  SPEAKER_01: Because what you're doing is you're anchoring current or near-term uh financial results to the stock price, and that's how you get the ratio.
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_01: And then you compare it to other companies to get a sense of is it expensive or is it cheap?
• 38:21
  SPEAKER_01: So that's what pricing tells you.
• 38:23
  SPEAKER_01: PE and price to sales, it can tell you is the company cheap or expensive because it is relative to other businesses.
• 38:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um when we're talking overvalued or undervalued, you have to actually value the business, and uh that is done as it has been done for hundreds of years.
• 38:41
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, uh Venetian glassmakers back in the 1500s used cash flows, growth, and risk to value businesses that they would purchase or sell, and similarly, that is still used today.
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: So, a way, common way to do that is by using discounted cash flow models.
• 38:58
  SPEAKER_01: There are many different ways to actually get an intrinsic value.
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_01: DCF is the most common one, so that's one that I adopt and I am comfortable with.
• 39:08
  SPEAKER_01: If you have a different way to assess uh, you know, growth, cash flows, and risk, then feel feel free to do that.
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, DCF is the way I used to reach intrinsic value for every company that I invest in and analyze.
• 39:23
  SPEAKER_00: I understand, and uh that that makes sense.
• 39:26
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, uh lots of different investors value things differently, but what what would make you eventually like I think Palantir is a great company.
• 39:35
  SPEAKER_00: I'm diving deeper into the business the the coming weeks because I'm just fascinated by the company, but uh just looking at even considering some of the growth being very, you know, even giving them the benefit of the doubt.
• 39:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, it is pretty large for a company that generates three billion in revenue.
• 39:57
  SPEAKER_00: So, what would be a reason of selling Palantir eventually?
• 40:01
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I'm not a good seller of uh businesses, you know.
• 40:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's rare enough to which is a great that that's a great comp that's a good comp that's a compliment, that's a great feature, but sometimes you have to pull the trigger.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, yes, yes.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_01: So I can tell you a bit of a personal story with Palantir.
• 40:16
  SPEAKER_01: So when when Palantir was trading in the single digits, I valued both sides of the business for Palantir, so the commercial and the government side.
• 40:25
  SPEAKER_01: And I realized when when it was trading at seven, eight dollars, no one wanted the stock, everyone hated Palantir.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it had very bad public image, it still does to a large degree, as you alluded to earlier, you know, about the war-related stuff.
• 40:41
  SPEAKER_01: And I realized I am only paying for the government side of the business, I'm getting commercial for free.
• 40:48
  SPEAKER_01: So when you do um when when I valued it and I did a sum of the parts valuation, I was like, dude, at seven, eight dollars, I'm only paying for the government business.
• 40:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'm getting commercial for free.
• 41:00
  SPEAKER_01: At that point, I I sold every stock in my portfolio.
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_01: I went all in Palantir, and that it might seem very risky unless you actually understand, like, in order to value a business, you have to understand it because your inputs are only going to be as accurate as your understanding of the business.
• 41:18
  SPEAKER_01: So I had a lot of confidence, so I slept very well.
• 41:21
  SPEAKER_01: People like, how are you able to sleep 100% of your portfolio in one stock?
• 41:25
  SPEAKER_01: I was like, dude, this is so asymmetrical, it is so rare in the stock market to see an opportunity like this that I felt like very confident.
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, it took some time, a couple of months, but then it more than doubled.
• 41:38
  SPEAKER_01: At the time, I valued Palantir's business in relation to like value per share, fair intrinsic value per share.
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_01: It was worth maybe$18 when I bought it at seven.
• 41:49
  SPEAKER_01: It went to like$25.
• 41:51
  SPEAKER_01: So that was like, okay, I'm not comfortable being 100% Palantir anymore.
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_01: So I sold up a portion of the stock, uh, then it raised to like above this, and my new intrinsic value for the company was like 20.
• 42:03
  SPEAKER_01: Then it raised to like 60, and then it was worth about like 35 to me.
• 42:08
  SPEAKER_01: So I trimmed a bit more.
• 42:09
  SPEAKER_01: So I've I've been trimming along the way, I'm not that heavily concentrated anymore.
• 42:14
  SPEAKER_01: But I still believe today that you can make a reasonable assumption for Palantir that it is not overvalued, even right now.
• 42:22
  SPEAKER_01: Like as you mentioned, pricing-wise, PE price of sales, it is super expensive, the most expensive stock on the market.
• 42:29
  SPEAKER_01: From a value perspective, it might not even be overvalued.
• 42:32
  SPEAKER_01: So if you understand Palantir, and especially if you listen to the latest earnings call, the CEO said, Yeah, we're going to XRUS-based revenue.
• 42:44
  SPEAKER_01: So that gives you like a very solid foundation for expected growth for the the next five years.
• 42:50
  SPEAKER_01: I do a typically a 10 forecasting year period DCF, but let's assume that you know close to 30% of their growth comes from existing customers.
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_01: So you have like this baseline that is just you know, existing customers keep on scaling more and more and more, which is very sustainable in nature.
• 43:11
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, it shows you like it gives you confidence, like it's not like uh Snowflake where 60% of the company is like salespeople getting new and new customers, like they're not uh dependent on that.
• 43:23
  SPEAKER_01: Like current customers are just seeing so much value that they want to expand their use of Palantir.
• 43:29
  SPEAKER_01: So if we assume over a 10-year period, if they can compound revenue growth at 36%, which sounds extremely high until you actually look closer at the business, I think it's a very modest assumption for Palantir.
• 43:44
  SPEAKER_01: That that would put them somewhere around uh$62 billion of revenue in 2034.
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_01: If you assume that, and then you assume 60% free cash flow to the firm margins, which is, you know, uh instead of just free cash flow that takes uh cash from operations.
• 44:00
  SPEAKER_01: Minus capex cash flow to the firm actually looks at reinvestment needs into the business.
• 44:06
  SPEAKER_01: Um if they can reach 60% margins, which I mean they are let me see where they are as of right now.
• 44:13
  SPEAKER_01: I can pull it up uh one second profitability.
• 44:17
  SPEAKER_01: So so they're currently at 50%.
• 44:19
  SPEAKER_01: Um two quarters ago they were at 58%, but given their commentary where they are uh if you look at their operating costs, they are not improving at all.
• 44:29
  SPEAKER_01: Like if you look at their RD spend, it is basically flat for like five years.
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_01: Nothing has happened to their RD costs.
• 44:36
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not like in order to put out new products, in order to grow, they are like increasing, like throwing money on engineers and RD spend.
• 44:44
  SPEAKER_01: Like they're not doing that.
• 44:45
  SPEAKER_01: GNA is up slightly, and sales and marketing is up slightly, but like their operating costs are like static almost going up slightly, but the revenue growth is exploding.
• 44:56
  SPEAKER_01: So the cost of operations are not that high.
• 44:59
  SPEAKER_01: They're basically almost at 60% free cash flow to refer margins already.
• 45:03
  SPEAKER_01: And given their new commentary where they are going to use AI agents to actually implement Palantir solutions with clients, like that was a huge cost.
• 45:13
  SPEAKER_01: Sending out engineers to understand, okay, this company is trying to solve this use case.
• 45:18
  SPEAKER_01: Let's build a solution for them.
• 45:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, that's been a huge cost.
• 45:21
  SPEAKER_01: They call it for forward-deployed engineers, basically, where you have engineers going to the like uh customers and listening to what they're trying to do and actually build something for them.
• 45:33
  SPEAKER_01: They have been experimenting with uh AI agents to do this, that's been highly effective.
• 45:39
  SPEAKER_01: And when you consider that and the margin expansion that will come from that, and they're basically already at 60%, as I mentioned, if you assume 36% growth rate compounded over this 10-year period and 60% free casual to the firm margin, the stock is worth 175 per share today, and it is trading at 177.
• 45:58
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not necessarily even overvalued, like it's just about the narrative you tell for the business.
• 46:03
  SPEAKER_01: And of course, the narrative has to be rooted in something.
• 46:07
  SPEAKER_01: I, as I just did for you now, I can tell you a path for Palantir to have 36% growth compounded.
• 46:14
  SPEAKER_01: I can tell you a path for Palantir to have those 60% free cash flow to the firm margins.
• 46:20
  SPEAKER_01: If the narrative that you're trying to tell in your valuation model uh makes sense, is probable, um then it's not really that crazy for Palantir.
• 46:31
  SPEAKER_01: Now, my personal valuation for Palantir is uh I think it's currently at 128, so a lot less.
• 46:38
  SPEAKER_01: I have uh uh a very, very detailed model.
• 46:42
  SPEAKER_01: I can't just you know uh go through it, you know, during this podcast, but it is available on my Substack.
• 46:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh very detailed model where I look at everything, and I currently, as of this quarter, reach 128.
• 46:55
  SPEAKER_01: So tying that back into like, okay, well, when are you comfortable selling Palantir?
• 47:00
  SPEAKER_01: I can tell you before this quarter, I just told you basically my fair value for Palantir today is 128.
• 47:07
  SPEAKER_01: Before this quarterly report, it was 75.
• 47:11
  SPEAKER_01: When you're having a business increase fair intrinsic value so drastically quarter to quarter, I'm not really confident in selling it just because it's 25% overvalued.
• 47:23
  SPEAKER_01: You know, like as long as the intrinsic value growth is just so exponential, so extreme.
• 47:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we're talking almost a doubling in fair intrinsic value, just one quarter to the other, because this company is just doing so much, like every single quarter we get fair intrinsic value just jumps so much.
• 47:43
  SPEAKER_01: As long as they keep doing that, um, I don't really care if it's overvalued uh by a certain percentage, like if it went to like 400 tomorrow, like of course, I can't tell you a narrative where 400 makes sense.
• 47:56
  SPEAKER_01: I can tell you a narrative where 175 makes sense, uh, but not one where like some extreme, extreme, extreme overvaluation makes sense.
• 48:04
  SPEAKER_01: But what I'm seeing from the company makes me very confident in just keep holding.
• 48:08
  SPEAKER_01: Like, no matter like who cares if the P ratio is 300, 400, 500, 600, it's it's all the same, they're all super super expensive.
• 48:16
  SPEAKER_01: So, what I always care about in businesses, I completely ignore P ratios.
• 48:21
  SPEAKER_01: I never look at charts, I only value the business.
• 48:24
  SPEAKER_01: I don't look at the chart, I don't know what the chart has been doing.
• 48:26
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if it's the RSI is 80 or the RSI is 10.
• 48:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like, I don't care about any of that.
• 48:32
  SPEAKER_01: If it trades below what my fair intrinsic value is, then I'm uh confident buying.
• 48:37
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, if it's above, uh, I evaluate okay, should should I hold this or not?
• 48:42
  SPEAKER_01: For super high quality businesses like Palantir, I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt and like try to stay in, uh, unless it's like extreme.
• 48:51
  SPEAKER_01: But still, I only buy Palantir when it is undervalued.
• 48:55
  SPEAKER_01: And for a long time now, as you mentioned, uh, we didn't really have many opportunities to buy Palantir.
• 49:00
  SPEAKER_01: But back in April, my fair value for Palantir was 70.
• 49:04
  SPEAKER_01: It traded down to 65.
• 49:06
  SPEAKER_01: From like I think it was up to like 130, it traded down to 65, which is which was below my fair intrinsic value.
• 49:12
  SPEAKER_01: So I bought more shares since then, you know, almost tripled those shares.
• 49:17
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, I'm I only buy below my fair intrinsic value.
• 49:21
  SPEAKER_01: But as for selling, it would have to be something extreme, or they would stop improving so much quarter by quarter on an intrinsic value basis.
• 49:30
  SPEAKER_01: But for now, they're executing, the stock has been going up and up and up, and I simply believe that that's because there hasn't been a negative catalyst tied to the stock.
• 49:39
  SPEAKER_01: Like typically you have something to anchor to like bears, like they can see like, well, good quarter, but this didn't really look good.
• 49:47
  SPEAKER_01: For Palantir, like you can't really find any problem with the earnings, like it's just been improving, improving constantly for like over a year now, and the stock has you know reflected that.
• 49:58
  SPEAKER_01: There is one negative aspect to the company, but that's nothing new, and that and that is Europe is not growing at all.
• 50:05
  SPEAKER_01: That revenue has been static since they went public, and ever since the first earnings call, they called that out like Europe is not growing, and we're gonna stop focusing on Europe.
• 50:17
  SPEAKER_01: And yeah, in international commercial growth has been static ever since they went public.
• 50:22
  SPEAKER_01: I listened to every earnings call, about 90% of the earnings calls, they mentioned this, like, yeah, Europe doesn't want to participate in the AI revolution.
• 50:31
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, that is not specifically a Palantir problem because if you look at the GDP growth chart, uh if you look at the US, you will you will see a country that has re recovered since COVID and is actually growing at a pretty quick pace.
• 50:46
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I think the latest quarter there was something like uh close to 3%, 2.8, something like that.
• 50:52
  SPEAKER_01: If you look at Europe, it's like 0.8, 0.8.
• 50:56
  SPEAKER_01: It's not growing at all.
• 50:58
  SPEAKER_01: So at one point, Europe will have to start participating in the AI revolution, they will have to become more friendly toward businesses, they will have to stop over-regulating on such a wide scale.
• 51:09
  SPEAKER_01: Like they have to make it easier for businesses to prosper.
• 51:13
  SPEAKER_01: And when that happens, like if Palantir can have this kind of growth without Europe, imagine when Europe also grows at a similar pace, what the numbers are gonna look like.
• 51:24
  SPEAKER_01: Sorry, I talked for a very long.
• 51:26
  SPEAKER_01: You can cut me off when you want to.
• 51:29
  SPEAKER_01: But I think I answered your question, like when would you sell?
• 51:34
  SPEAKER_01: I um I think I answered that question.
• 51:37
  SPEAKER_00: No, but sometimes you just have a lot more stuff to say, and uh you're saying some interesting bits here, and uh I agree on some of the elements you just uh spoke about.
• 51:50
  SPEAKER_00: You also talked a bit about the engineers, which I do have another question on, and you spoke.
• 51:56
  SPEAKER_00: I think what you're basically saying is that Palantir has exceptional operational leverage where the fixed costs stay pretty stable and like revenue and and profits should grow exponentially from here.
• 52:10
  SPEAKER_00: And and I can definitely see that uh happening with a company like Palantir.
• 52:15
  SPEAKER_00: But you also spoke about the need of for engineers, they need very skilled and highly motivated employees, right?
• 52:21
  SPEAKER_00: So they do this, they attract people with lots of stock-based compensation.
• 52:27
  SPEAKER_00: Some investors are worried about that dilution.
• 52:31
  SPEAKER_00: Um, well, uh one could argue that they have made the stock price insanely good returns, but at the same time, it has grown about 8% annually since 2021.
• 52:44
  SPEAKER_00: Do you consider that like a problem or do you not really worry about it?
• 52:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think I know your answer.
• 52:52
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, what's my answer, and then I will uh give it to you.
• 52:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I think I think it's necessary to attract the the best employees, the best engineers, and uh it's a trade-off you need in uh right now, I think.
• 53:05
  SPEAKER_00: And eventually this should I think stock-based compensation should should go down.
• 53:11
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so what if I told you this this is a common misconception about Palantir?
• 53:16
  SPEAKER_01: What if I told you that they are far below the average SPC you know uh compensation uh um compared to the SaaS space as a whole?
• 53:26
  SPEAKER_01: So the way to measure this like kind of equally across different companies within a sector, you can judge it by stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenues.
• 53:38
  SPEAKER_01: This is like a common way to do it when you're an analyst.
• 53:42
  SPEAKER_01: So for Palantir, they are as of the latest quarter, they are at 16% of their revenues, is like equivalent to how much they uh spent on stock-based compensation.
• 53:55
  SPEAKER_01: But the average in the SaaS space is around 23-24%, so they are far below that.
• 54:03
  SPEAKER_01: Now, of course, uh a legacy kind of business like um let's say Oracle, there are some somewhere like a three, four, four percent.
• 54:11
  SPEAKER_01: But if you look like uh at any other SaaS, they're probably all around that 20%.
• 54:17
  SPEAKER_01: I I did uh I looked at Adobe.
• 54:20
  SPEAKER_01: Uh let me let me actually get the list and I will tell you like the peer group that I looked at to see like, okay, Palantir people say that they really overcompensate, but what's actually the the truth?
• 54:32
  SPEAKER_01: And let me just check the the peer group in a second.
• 54:35
  SPEAKER_01: But also keep in mind while while we are talking about this, we're seeing Meta, for example, offering reportedly like a billion dollars to attract top talent.
• 54:45
  SPEAKER_01: And we've all heard about the hundreds of millions of dollars, like before the the billion dollar news that we got recently.
• 54:53
  SPEAKER_01: It was like, yeah, they are paying, we're offering to pay hundreds of millions of dollars just to steal top talent from different companies.
• 55:01
  SPEAKER_01: Let me just go and check the peer group just so like you you understand what I'm comparing to.
• 55:07
  SPEAKER_01: One second.
• 55:08
  SPEAKER_01: Palantir.
• 55:09
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so the peer group that I used is C C3 AI, CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, Datadog, ServiceNow, Snowflake, Salesforce, Polo Auto Networks, The Trade Desk, and Adobe.
• 55:23
  SPEAKER_01: So they're all SaaS companies, like they would be considered peers to Palantir, even though no one does exactly what Palantir does.
• 55:31
  SPEAKER_01: Within this peer group, the average SPC as a percentage of revenues is around 23, 24%.
• 55:38
  SPEAKER_01: Palantir is at 16.
• 55:40
  SPEAKER_01: They're like they are below the average.
• 55:42
  SPEAKER_01: But then the question is, okay, they are diluting, as you mentioned.
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_01: That is a concern.
• 55:48
  SPEAKER_01: You have to account for that.
• 55:49
  SPEAKER_01: And I do account for that in my intrinsic valuation.
• 55:52
  SPEAKER_01: It is very important to never ignore SPC.
• 55:55
  SPEAKER_01: You should account for that.
• 55:57
  SPEAKER_01: But the question then becomes: what is Palantir getting for the compensation?
• 56:04
  SPEAKER_01: Like, how do we measure is their employee force really worth the compensation?
• 56:09
  SPEAKER_01: So a different way to measure that is called employee efficiency.
• 56:14
  SPEAKER_01: And that is typically by looking at revenue per employee.
• 56:18
  SPEAKER_01: And Palantir is way, way above that same peer group.
• 56:23
  SPEAKER_01: No one is even close to Palantir.
• 56:25
  SPEAKER_01: Uh Palantir is somewhere around on a trailing 12-month basis.
• 56:29
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, they are closing in now on um uh one million dollars.
• 56:36
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I will I'll give you the exact amount.
• 56:38
  SPEAKER_01: Give me a second.
• 56:40
  SPEAKER_01: Let's see revenue per employee.
• 56:43
  SPEAKER_01: So they are at$826 uh thousand dollars per employee as of Q2.
• 56:48
  SPEAKER_01: The closest one is like uh 600, and the rest are like way below that, like around half a million.
• 56:54
  SPEAKER_01: So they're not even close, even though they might dilute way more than Palantir does.
• 56:58
  SPEAKER_01: Palantir makes a lot more from their employee force while diluting or compensating them less.
• 57:05
  SPEAKER_01: So it is not really true that they are overly compensating compared to the SaaS space, and while they are diluting a lot, and they are compensating a lot, they're actually getting the most out of their employees compared to any peer.
• 57:18
  SPEAKER_01: So it is not really a concern for me.
• 57:20
  SPEAKER_01: And as you mentioned, it it has been going down drastically over time.
• 57:23
  SPEAKER_01: So I think it's just a myth that SPC is like a big, big concern for Palantir when it's not really as long as as long as you account for it when you value the business.
• 57:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, exactly.
• 57:36
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 57:36
  SPEAKER_00: I think you answered my question uh with uh the last bit.
• 57:40
  SPEAKER_00: Perhaps not specifically tied to Palantir, but more on AI and uh and capex spending.
• 57:46
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 57:47
  SPEAKER_00: Right now we're seeing huge investments from big tech companies mostly like Microsoft, uh Amazon and AI.
• 57:53
  SPEAKER_00: They're spending billions on building data centers, they're buying chips from companies like Nvidia and expanding the infrastructure to support the AI workloads.
• 58:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 58:03
  SPEAKER_00: This surge in CapEx spending has been a big reason why many semiconductor and hardware companies uh have gone up so so much.
• 58:13
  SPEAKER_00: I also think some of the software stocks have gone up because of that.
• 58:17
  SPEAKER_00: It's just getting cheaper and it's getting faster.
• 58:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's not necessarily related to to Palantir, but do you expect this this wave of spending to slow down at some point?
• 58:27
  SPEAKER_00: And if that slowdown happens, yeah.
• 58:31
  SPEAKER_00: What does that mean for investors in AI hardware, AI software like Palantir, but also for other companies?
• 58:38
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so um when when we're talking about hyperscalers, we're talking uh Amazon, like the the cloud infrastructure companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft primarily the the the big three that are increasingly spending a lot more on CapEx to build out these data centers, they need to justify this to their clients.
• 58:58
  SPEAKER_01: Like they are spending so much on infrastructure, but they also need to start seeing some return on all that CapEx.
• 59:06
  SPEAKER_01: Otherwise, shareholders will not be very happy.
• 59:09
  SPEAKER_01: So, what they've been doing, actually, if you go back, all three of them are partnered with Palantir.
• 59:15
  SPEAKER_01: Microsoft specifically went out and uh called out, like made made a shout-out to Palantir because people know these hyperscalers know that in order for their customers to extract value from all of this infrastructure spending that they're doing, they need some software solutions to actually make use of the CapExpend.
• 59:35
  SPEAKER_01: So that's why these hyperscalers have actually been pushing Palantir as a company.
• 59:40
  SPEAKER_01: Like, no, you probably should be using Palantir, is like the undertone to actually get some value for your business because otherwise we have all of this infrastructure and no one is using it, we'll just burn so much money for nothing.
• 59:55
  SPEAKER_01: So there is definitely like this hand-in-hand approach that they need to have, because you know, data centers without anyone extracting value from it is just you know useless.
• 1:00:08
  SPEAKER_01: And to answer your question, yes, it it does have a ceiling because at the end of the day, Nvidia, for example, I mean, revenues have been exploding, but that has a ceiling.
• 1:00:19
  SPEAKER_01: For how many years in a row can you keep growing revenues at that pace?
• 1:00:25
  SPEAKER_01: Because at the end of the day, someone is paying for that capex spend.
• 1:00:29
  SPEAKER_01: How will Microsoft, Google, and Amazon keep justifying to their shareholders, like, yeah, we just spent uh 80 billion in 2025 on building out a data center?
• 1:00:39
  SPEAKER_01: By the way, next year we're gonna need to increase that to 120 billion, and the next year we're gonna need to increase that by 100 billion, like it won't happen.
• 1:00:45
  SPEAKER_01: It has a ceiling.
• 1:00:46
  SPEAKER_01: They need to start extracting value from like their current spending.
• 1:00:50
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't know exactly when it will happen, but this CapEx spend has a ceiling just by the nature of that someone has to pay for it.
• 1:01:00
  SPEAKER_01: So while Nvidia is very, very attractive as of right now, very, very hot, they're selling a lot of chips.
• 1:01:06
  SPEAKER_01: I do believe that that aggressive growth has a ceiling.
• 1:01:10
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know when that will be.
• 1:01:12
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but similarly to Palantir, like if your customers are not extracting value from your software, they're not gonna be um increasing their spending with you by like 30% year over year.
• 1:01:25
  SPEAKER_01: Uh they did 28% this quarter, but it's been going up.
• 1:01:29
  SPEAKER_01: Like, as long as you you get some value from what you're offering, then that can keep going.
• 1:01:34
  SPEAKER_01: I believe for the CapEx spend in particular, probably won't increase by a whole lot the coming years.
• 1:01:41
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but we we never know.
• 1:01:42
  SPEAKER_01: Like AI is new, we don't we don't know about capabilities, but I just have a hard time believing that we're gonna reach a point where each hyperscaler is spending half a batrillion on Capex every year.
• 1:01:53
  SPEAKER_01: Like you have to justify your previous spending first to your shareholders.
• 1:01:58
  SPEAKER_01: And that's an interesting dynamic with with Palantir because they were called out, they they did some public press conference, you know.
• 1:02:04
  SPEAKER_01: Alex Carpe goes to different forums, different conferences globally, talks on the world stage, and this businessman came up to him like to ask a question.
• 1:02:14
  SPEAKER_01: Carp was on stage, he's like, dude, okay, we are looking at some solutions, we're looking at SAP.
• 1:02:19
  SPEAKER_01: I don't remember the exact examples, but so making some up like, yeah, we're looking at Salesforce, we're looking at this company, and we looked at Palantir and your software is like so expensive.
• 1:02:33
  SPEAKER_01: Like, why should we go with you?
• 1:02:34
  SPEAKER_01: You're just so expensive.
• 1:02:36
  SPEAKER_01: And uh he said, like, yeah, we're expensive because we're the best.
• 1:02:40
  SPEAKER_01: And the dynamic here is that if you can make or save hundred million dollars by using Palantir, you would be happy to spend 50 million dollars to achieve that.
• 1:02:53
  SPEAKER_01: Or let's say that Palantir can increase your revenues from like half a billion to a billion, then you would be happy to pay Palantir 100 million per year to achieve that.
• 1:03:03
  SPEAKER_01: So Palantir themselves, they have no ceiling on how much they can actually scale.
• 1:03:09
  SPEAKER_01: As long as they provide more value than they're being paid, then it will be an attractive product.
• 1:03:14
  SPEAKER_01: So they they say, like, yeah, we are expensive and we're expensive for a reason because we're the best.
• 1:03:20
  SPEAKER_01: So when you have these customers going up during these AIP cons and be like, yeah, we actually saved 200 million dollars by using Palantir, I think the example is Tyson Foods.
• 1:03:30
  SPEAKER_01: If if someone wants this specific example, Tyson Foods is like, yeah, we save$200 million year over year by just implementing Palantir and becoming more efficient.
• 1:03:39
  SPEAKER_01: When you hear that as a business, aren't you like, dude, we need to get this or we're gonna be left behind?
• 1:03:44
  SPEAKER_01: And that's the narrative because if a peer of yours in your line of business starts to use Palantir, you're kind of forced to start to use it as well, especially when you hear about the rate of improvements.
• 1:03:56
  SPEAKER_01: And uh something interesting happened.
• 1:03:59
  SPEAKER_01: So they've been doing this AIP cons where customers come up and they say, like, yeah, this is what we're using uh Palantir for.
• 1:04:06
  SPEAKER_01: But as of Q2, there's a record amount of companies specifically quoting Palantir for their improved business results, like during the earnings process, like, yeah, we we partnered up with Palantir and we managed to achieve this.
• 1:04:22
  SPEAKER_01: So, what kind of dynamic does that create to like your your competitors, your peers?
• 1:04:27
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone is gonna be interested and want to also get Palantir.
• 1:04:31
  SPEAKER_01: So, as for Palantir, I don't believe there is a specific ceiling as long as they can keep providing value for the hyperscalers and for uh the hardware companies, I do believe there is a ceiling, as I explained.
• 1:04:43
  SPEAKER_00: Do you think we're heading into a data center bubble, or perhaps we're all already in it, or are we more in a general AI bubble, or do you think we're in no bubble?
• 1:04:53
  SPEAKER_00: What is your gut feeling on all of what is happening in in the world right now?
• 1:04:58
  SPEAKER_01: Uh well, investor risk appetite is very, very high.
• 1:05:02
  SPEAKER_01: People are not demanding a lot of returns for investing in equity.
• 1:05:05
  SPEAKER_01: So, as I as I mentioned, I I value businesses, so a very important part of that is knowing what the implied equity risk premium is.
• 1:05:14
  SPEAKER_01: So I can explain that briefly.
• 1:05:15
  SPEAKER_01: So people know about the risk-free rate.
• 1:05:18
  SPEAKER_01: You know, uh often in the US, you use the 10-year treasury yield as a proxy for like, okay, what can I get risk-free on my money?
• 1:05:28
  SPEAKER_01: Currently, that's at 4.3%, which is historically very, very high.
• 1:05:32
  SPEAKER_01: You can get 4.3% on your money annually by just uh investing in the 10-year treasury and and collecting the yield.
• 1:05:40
  SPEAKER_01: Very attractive.
• 1:05:42
  SPEAKER_01: That typically means that stocks are less attractive.
• 1:05:46
  SPEAKER_01: So when you say, like, okay, do you want to invest in Microsoft and get uh 4.3% per year?
• 1:05:55
  SPEAKER_01: You would probably say, uh, no, Microsoft has risk.
• 1:05:58
  SPEAKER_01: I can get 4.3%.
• 1:06:00
  SPEAKER_01: Risk-free by investing in uh treasuries.
• 1:06:03
  SPEAKER_01: All makes sense.
• 1:06:04
  SPEAKER_01: So, what the equity risk premium is, is it measures how much above that 4.3% that risk-free rate are investors demanding in order to take on the risk of equities?
• 1:06:17
  SPEAKER_01: That is currently at 3.9% for the month of August.
• 1:06:22
  SPEAKER_01: So basically, that gives you a discount rate of 8.16%, which is historically very, very low.
• 1:06:29
  SPEAKER_01: It means that investor appetite, like the people want to own stocks, people want to take on a lot of risk.
• 1:06:36
  SPEAKER_01: That could be tied to could be a bubble.
• 1:06:39
  SPEAKER_01: People are taking on a lot of risk.
• 1:06:40
  SPEAKER_01: That has historically resulted in bubble territory.
• 1:06:45
  SPEAKER_01: Is AI in a bubble?
• 1:06:46
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think the expectations are in accordance with the implied results in the stocks.
• 1:06:55
  SPEAKER_01: Like Palantir is high because uh the stock price implies that Palantir will have a very bright future as a result of AI.
• 1:07:03
  SPEAKER_01: Nvidia, the same, TSMC, the same.
• 1:07:06
  SPEAKER_01: All of these stock prices are incorporating a lot of expectations from AI.
• 1:07:12
  SPEAKER_01: Now, if if that happens, then we're not in a bubble.
• 1:07:15
  SPEAKER_01: But if we're nowhere close of reaching those expectations, then yeah, it's a bubble.
• 1:07:19
  SPEAKER_01: I typically don't focus on on a larger scale.
• 1:07:23
  SPEAKER_01: I I just look at business to business as as an analyst and focus on one specific business.
• 1:07:29
  SPEAKER_01: If I had to guess, I would say that markets are probably a bit hot right now, but that doesn't mean that it's uninvestable.
• 1:07:37
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you can find the very undervalued companies still in this market.
• 1:07:41
  SPEAKER_01: But some are definitely uh stretching their value right now.
• 1:07:44
  SPEAKER_01: Let's put it that way.
• 1:07:45
  SPEAKER_00: What um if you if you had to like give two or three of like the biggest, biggest risks for Palantir?
• 1:07:53
  SPEAKER_00: The quality they offer is exceptional.
• 1:07:55
  SPEAKER_00: The value proposition they have is unmatched if you compare it to the other solutions.
• 1:08:00
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, just look at what they're saving other companies, even though they're more expensive.
• 1:08:05
  SPEAKER_00: So, what are the largest risks for Palantir to I can see them going bankrupt, but I mean they are priced not for perfection, perhaps, but they are quite expensive.
• 1:08:18
  SPEAKER_01: For a very bright future, yeah.
• 1:08:22
  SPEAKER_00: What would need to happen if uh to perhaps lose 50% of its value?
• 1:08:27
  SPEAKER_00: What are some of their risks?
• 1:08:28
  SPEAKER_01: The biggest concern when you have a company like Palantir for me is regulatory.
• 1:08:35
  SPEAKER_01: When you have like 55% of the company being within the government segment that introduces a lot of risk.
• 1:08:44
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they're operational across more than 15 different agencies.
• 1:08:47
  SPEAKER_01: We can see how volatile the US government in particular has been.
• 1:08:52
  SPEAKER_01: We've seen them, you know, being deployed in Germany where due to lobbying, excuse me, due to lobbying, they had to, you know, pull out from Germany.
• 1:09:02
  SPEAKER_01: Like even though they were active in Germany, they had to pull out.
• 1:09:06
  SPEAKER_01: So there's a lot of regulatory risk.
• 1:09:08
  SPEAKER_01: There was a lot of pushback when they were deployed in the UK and within the NHS.
• 1:09:13
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of regulatory concerns and they are kind of unpredictable, which, as an investor, every time there are unpredictable factors, it kind of scares you because you know you're like at the mercy of fate.
• 1:09:26
  SPEAKER_01: Basically, you don't know what might happen.
• 1:09:29
  SPEAKER_01: As of right now, they have proven themselves to do everything correctly.
• 1:09:33
  SPEAKER_01: They have sued the US government twice, they won both times.
• 1:09:38
  SPEAKER_01: I think they're doing a good job, they're doing things ethically, they're doing, you know, they have guardrails, they have high security clearances.
• 1:09:45
  SPEAKER_01: I don't expect it to be a problem, but regulatory concerns are real, and that is a real risk factor to the business, which could cut the value in half because more than half of the business is in the government side.
• 1:09:57
  SPEAKER_01: So that is a large risk, even though it is not a high probability risk.
• 1:10:02
  SPEAKER_01: Second one is that, as I mentioned, Europe is not growing at all.
• 1:10:07
  SPEAKER_01: For now, that is not a problem because there's just so much addressable market, specifically in the US.
• 1:10:13
  SPEAKER_01: Over time, when you keep growing at these rates, that addressable market will get smaller and smaller within the US.
• 1:10:20
  SPEAKER_01: You will have to start expanding internationally in order to keep up the expectations that are implied in the quote.
• 1:10:28
  SPEAKER_01: For now, it is fine with just the US, but over time they also need to expand in Europe, so Europe has not been growing, so that is also a concern and risk to me.
• 1:10:38
  SPEAKER_01: Third would be um, you know, they they are so prudent and with their cash spend.
• 1:10:48
  SPEAKER_01: This is not a real risk, but it is a concern.
• 1:10:50
  SPEAKER_01: So Palantir, they have no debt, which you know makes like they would have to really do something extreme to go bankrupt.
• 1:10:58
  SPEAKER_01: So bankruptcy risk is not real, but they have an ever-growing uh pile of cash, and they're not doing anything with it, they've had it parked in the treasuries for many years now, just collecting that yield.
• 1:11:10
  SPEAKER_01: That that is fine because the treasury yield has been uh extremely high, you know.
• 1:11:17
  SPEAKER_01: As I mentioned, currently 4.3%.
• 1:11:19
  SPEAKER_01: So they they are collecting interest on that cash, but it makes you wonder like, where will they deploy this cash?
• 1:11:28
  SPEAKER_01: Because the CEO has said, like, no, like we are not cash constrained for our growth.
• 1:11:32
  SPEAKER_01: Some companies they sometimes need an injection of cash, like they need to burn cash in order to increase how much they grow.
• 1:11:39
  SPEAKER_01: That is not really the case with Palantir, they're just so efficient and increasingly more efficient, and they're still growing at the pace they are.
• 1:11:46
  SPEAKER_01: But what are they going to do with the cash?
• 1:11:49
  SPEAKER_01: Historically, they have invested in other businesses.
• 1:11:52
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you are familiar, but a few years ago, they invested in a lot of specs.
• 1:11:59
  SPEAKER_01: In return for investing in specs, the specs had to become Palantir clients.
• 1:12:03
  SPEAKER_01: So it's it's it was like a net benefit plus Palantir-owned equity in these businesses.
• 1:12:10
  SPEAKER_01: And it made a lot of sense.
• 1:12:12
  SPEAKER_01: We we were in a spec bubble in 2021.
• 1:12:15
  SPEAKER_01: In 2022, most specs, a lot of them went back bankrupt.
• 1:12:20
  SPEAKER_01: Most specs crashed in price.
• 1:12:22
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we only have a few survivors, I think SoFi and a bunch of others.
• 1:12:26
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of companies went bankrupt that went the spec route in the spec bubble.
• 1:12:30
  SPEAKER_01: And the Palantir lost a lot of money that they had invested, and it took until this quarter to break even on just the contract revenue.
• 1:12:39
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, the equity became worthless.
• 1:12:41
  SPEAKER_01: When the company goes from like$20 per share to zero, uh D-Lists goes bankrupt.
• 1:12:48
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, they won't be paying you any revenues.
• 1:12:50
  SPEAKER_01: The equity you invested in is useless.
• 1:12:52
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, some survived, some have been paying them, you know, contractual revenue.
• 1:12:56
  SPEAKER_01: So they are break-even now on that.
• 1:12:57
  SPEAKER_01: But it makes me wonder like, okay, they have maybe the best investor alive, one of the best in in Peter Teal.
• 1:13:06
  SPEAKER_01: Are they looking to invest this cash?
• 1:13:08
  SPEAKER_01: Like, what are they gonna do with the cash pile?
• 1:13:10
  SPEAKER_01: They're not using it to grow, they're just farming yield.
• 1:13:12
  SPEAKER_01: What happens when treasury yields are down?
• 1:13:14
  SPEAKER_01: So it is kind of scary to wonder, like, okay, what will they do with the cash?
• 1:13:18
  SPEAKER_01: I guess it's a nice problem to have.
• 1:13:20
  SPEAKER_01: Not many companies are have just such a big cash pile that they don't really know what to do with it, but it makes you curious.
• 1:13:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, those three, I guess.
• 1:13:28
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, to be honest, the risk profile for Palantir is very low.
• 1:13:32
  SPEAKER_01: All the risk is in the stock price.
• 1:13:35
  SPEAKER_01: Like, the stock price might get a lot ahead of it itself, pricing too much expectation from the business.
• 1:13:42
  SPEAKER_01: But I mean, on the business side of things, there's not a lot of risk.
• 1:13:45
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they have been addressing that over time.
• 1:13:48
  SPEAKER_01: As you mentioned, SPC used to be a problem, it is no longer a problem.
• 1:13:52
  SPEAKER_01: They're they're below the average, they're steadily decreasing it.
• 1:13:55
  SPEAKER_01: Dilution rates are going down.
• 1:13:57
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I track a lot of metrics for the company.
• 1:14:00
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they are addressing each weak point, you know, quarter by quarter.
• 1:14:05
  SPEAKER_01: There's not any business-specific risk from the metrics that I'm really seeing.
• 1:14:09
  SPEAKER_01: It's just is the stock price expecting too much from the company?
• 1:14:13
  SPEAKER_01: That's the like the biggest risk.
• 1:14:15
  SPEAKER_01: Like stock risk, not business risk, basically.
• 1:14:19
  SPEAKER_00: I can't I can't imagine how how difficult it was before customers.
• 1:14:24
  SPEAKER_00: I I don't see a reason to switch if you're using Palantir, but I mean the switching cost should be like massive.
• 1:14:31
  SPEAKER_00: Like, who wants to switch when you're saving so much money, right?
• 1:14:34
  SPEAKER_01: But uh well, an interesting dynamic with Palantir that not a lot of people talk about is people saw this as a as a big risk for Palantir historically.
• 1:14:44
  SPEAKER_01: Uh to your point with the stickiness.
• 1:14:46
  SPEAKER_01: I'll I'll tell you a story.
• 1:14:48
  SPEAKER_01: So 20.
• 1:14:50
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I'll tell you exactly how many c customers they have.
• 1:14:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's 850-ish.
• 1:14:55
  SPEAKER_01: Total customers are currently 849, so 850.
• 1:14:59
  SPEAKER_01: Let's let's say 20 of those 850 account for 45% of revenues.
• 1:15:05
  SPEAKER_01: 20 customers out of 850 are almost half of total revenues.
• 1:15:11
  SPEAKER_01: Some people said that this is a big, big concentration risk, and uh that like if one of these large clients leave, like uh revenues would collapse because I mean they're just so concentrated into like this tiny fraction of customers, and it's like half the revenues.
• 1:15:29
  SPEAKER_01: If one leaves, this will collapse.
• 1:15:32
  SPEAKER_01: I saw it the other way around, I saw it as a safety net.
• 1:15:35
  SPEAKER_01: No matter if they struggle to like get a uh a lot of new customers on a quarterly basis, I saw it as they have this big backbone of reliable, large clients, sticky clients that are increasingly spending more and more and more with Palantir.
• 1:15:50
  SPEAKER_01: And why do I say that they are sticky?
• 1:15:53
  SPEAKER_01: Uh because if we look at uh I just said they were 45% of revenues when they went public, that was pretty pretty much the case as well.
• 1:16:04
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna tell you uh on a percentage basis uh a few years ago.
• 1:16:08
  SPEAKER_01: So when they in the 2021, it was uh okay, so 2022 it was 52%, then steadily going down, and that is while the company, you know, as as of recently has been growing like 48% year over year, they're still so heavily, heavily concentrated.
• 1:16:25
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the past year it stood steady at 45%, basically.
• 1:16:30
  SPEAKER_01: So it shows you that it is incredibly sticky, even for these clients that are paying on average um 74 million, 75 million dollars rounded annually.
• 1:16:43
  SPEAKER_01: They are increasingly spending more and more and more and more, like almost reaching that you know 100 million annual run rate.
• 1:16:50
  SPEAKER_01: This is incredibly sticky, and it's incredible, you know, a safety net for Palantir, even if their business might struggle for a quarter or two, they just have this backbone of companies that are you know so super super sticky, and it provides us such a big safety net.
• 1:17:06
  SPEAKER_01: So it is now 75 million rounded per each customer on average.
• 1:17:11
  SPEAKER_01: Last year it was 57 million, so it grew from 57 on average to 75.
• 1:17:16
  SPEAKER_01: If if these were stagnant, just you know, staying still and not increasing, that might be a concern.
• 1:17:23
  SPEAKER_01: Like, okay, the largest clients, they're not really increasing their spending.
• 1:17:27
  SPEAKER_01: What is wrong here?
• 1:17:28
  SPEAKER_01: But no, they're actually the ones that are increasing among the most, you know.
• 1:17:32
  SPEAKER_01: So incredibly sticky.
• 1:17:34
  SPEAKER_01: And yeah, I don't even want to imagine the switching costs.
• 1:17:37
  SPEAKER_01: Actually, Germany, as I mentioned, are back to using Palantir, and we had similar stories.
• 1:17:42
  SPEAKER_01: I I don't know if it was Coca-Cola or a different customer that had Palantir, stopped using it, and then returned a year or two later, like, no, we we we need Palantir.
• 1:17:51
  SPEAKER_01: Like, this is just so important and integral to our business.
• 1:17:56
  SPEAKER_01: I don't recall exactly if it was Coca-Cola or so, but the CEO himself mentioned this often.
• 1:18:02
  SPEAKER_01: And he even had a recent interview.
• 1:18:05
  SPEAKER_01: So they sat down on CNBC.
• 1:18:07
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, I think it was in relation to the Q1 quarter, and he said, like, they sat down with a new partnered client recently.
• 1:18:15
  SPEAKER_01: And he's like, the dude sitting next to me, he does he doesn't even want to buy from me.
• 1:18:19
  SPEAKER_01: He has to, he doesn't even like me.
• 1:18:21
  SPEAKER_01: Like the guy sitting next to me, like, dude, this client he hates me, but he has to buy my product because it's the best.
• 1:18:28
  SPEAKER_01: And the guy goes on, like, yeah, kind of have to use Palantir.
• 1:18:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so yeah, the dynamic with with Palantir is very interesting, very, very polarizing management, polarizing stock, polarizing fan base, uh, investor base.
• 1:18:43
  SPEAKER_01: So it's a very interesting company to track, I can tell you that much.
• 1:18:46
  SPEAKER_00: Would uh Alex Carp leaving the company be a risk or not really?
• 1:18:51
  SPEAKER_01: No, because I think I've gotten to know a few employees, and even if you what we observe in public from commentary, I know Shim Sankar, the CTO, does a lot of public appearances.
• 1:19:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh Ted Maubre, which is head of uh Europe, he does a lot of appearances.
• 1:19:11
  SPEAKER_01: You can really tell that this is company-wide.
• 1:19:15
  SPEAKER_01: This is not like one person, you know, imprinting himself and being the sole face outwards.
• 1:19:22
  SPEAKER_01: Like this company culture, it is like company wide, like everyone adopts the same culture.
• 1:19:28
  SPEAKER_01: So while I do believe Carp is a great CEO, uh I believe that the whole culture which keeps Palantir Palantir is you know inside of every employee, basically.
• 1:19:40
  SPEAKER_01: I I don't think there will be a culture change just because Alex Carp would resign or leave.
• 1:19:46
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, so it it would be bad for me, like because I like Carp as a CEO, but I don't believe a lot would change with the company because the mission statement has been the same, the company culture has stayed the same for like uh ever since they were founded.
• 1:20:00
  SPEAKER_01: So it's not a real concern from that perspective, but it is a concern because Alex Carp himself is just such a great CEO.
• 1:20:07
  SPEAKER_00: No, um, you just gave the story about the stickiness of Palantir and how um people saw the 50% revenue by the 20 customers was a risk, and I think it's important to be the independent thinker there and not just follow the crowd there or believe what others are saying.
• 1:20:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you said Europe is uh not growing, it's a risk, but you can also invert it, right?
• 1:20:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's also a massive opportunity, especially looking at what needs to change for Europe.
• 1:20:35
  SPEAKER_00: So um, my final two questions are around the opportunities and um a bit of advice.
• 1:20:43
  SPEAKER_00: So let's let's start with the first one, which relates to we get a lot of messages from investors all around the world on missed opportunities, Palantir being one of them.
• 1:20:53
  SPEAKER_00: They're asking our opinion on the valuation.
• 1:20:56
  SPEAKER_00: Can it still go on?
• 1:20:57
  SPEAKER_00: Can it keep growing?
• 1:20:59
  SPEAKER_00: What will be the next Palantir?
• 1:21:00
  SPEAKER_00: Lots of questions we can't really answer.
• 1:21:03
  SPEAKER_00: But what would you say to someone who feels like they missed this opportunity?
• 1:21:08
  SPEAKER_01: In relation to Palantir, the best way to put it is this.
• 1:21:12
  SPEAKER_01: Now you should be cautious overpaying for any investment, Palantir or Coca-Cola or whatever it might be, you should be careful for overpaying.
• 1:21:24
  SPEAKER_01: But in terms of are you too late to Palantir?
• 1:21:27
  SPEAKER_01: I just told you Palantir has 849 customers.
• 1:21:32
  SPEAKER_01: Total.
• 1:21:33
  SPEAKER_01: 849.
• 1:21:34
  SPEAKER_01: Salesforce has almost 200,000 commercial customers.
• 1:21:40
  SPEAKER_01: Just put that into perspective.
• 1:21:41
  SPEAKER_01: Do you believe that Palantir is too late or is is it a mature business that has reached saturation?
• 1:21:48
  SPEAKER_01: 850 customers, Salesforce is closing in on 200,000.
• 1:21:52
  SPEAKER_01: So that should put it into perspective of how long Palantir can keep growing and how early they are in their stories.
• 1:21:59
  SPEAKER_01: Aswata Modron, which is you know the world's most renowned valuation professor, he teaches at uh um New York uh business school.
• 1:22:09
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 1:22:09
  SPEAKER_01: So he has this saying, NYU, sorry.
• 1:22:12
  SPEAKER_01: Uh he has this saying, I'm I'm trying to remember, that's why I'm blanking.
• 1:22:15
  SPEAKER_01: So okay, okay, yes.
• 1:22:16
  SPEAKER_01: So what he typically says is that a business is on a chapter on their way, you know, um, towards the end.
• 1:22:25
  SPEAKER_01: So if if you look at it as a book, Coca-Cola, they already had their climax.
• 1:22:31
  SPEAKER_01: They're probably you know towards the end of the book, like chapter 33 of 35.
• 1:22:36
  SPEAKER_01: Not a lot of things can happen with Coca-Cola.
• 1:22:38
  SPEAKER_01: They already expanded globally, they already sold, they spun off their bottling to you know improve margins.
• 1:22:45
  SPEAKER_01: They already did all of the things that shaped the business, right?
• 1:22:48
  SPEAKER_01: They're already towards the end of their story, like it won't be like a sudden quarter where they're like, yeah, we're going to do this new venture.
• 1:22:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's like, no, Coca-Cola is Coca-Cola, it is a mature business towards the end of their story.
• 1:23:02
  SPEAKER_01: Palantir, however, is still, you know, chapter three out of a 35-chapter book, and we don't really know the path that they will take.
• 1:23:11
  SPEAKER_01: It is still so young.
• 1:23:12
  SPEAKER_01: Like, it could branch off this way, it could branch off that way.
• 1:23:16
  SPEAKER_01: We don't really know as investors, we can only speculate to the best of our ability and try to guess where they're going.
• 1:23:23
  SPEAKER_01: But this company is just so incredibly young.
• 1:23:26
  SPEAKER_01: Don't be fooled by, like, yeah, it was founded over 20 years ago.
• 1:23:30
  SPEAKER_01: Like, 20 years ago, the company was just shaping up to like, okay, what kind of business do we want to be?
• 1:23:39
  SPEAKER_01: Like, uh, yes, we want to have these western values, we we want to protect the west.
• 1:23:46
  SPEAKER_01: But like, as a business, maturity-wise, super, super young.
• 1:23:50
  SPEAKER_01: They had a few contracts, they had like one, two big clients on the commercial side.
• 1:23:54
  SPEAKER_01: It is only now that they're just beginning to actually grow.
• 1:23:58
  SPEAKER_01: Like, it is just now.
• 1:23:59
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, the Palantir story very early on 850 clients.
• 1:24:04
  SPEAKER_01: How many business clients uh are there out there in the world?
• 1:24:07
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I gave you Salesforce metrics, they don't disclose it exactly, but they state it as close to 200,000.
• 1:24:13
  SPEAKER_01: You can probably look at something like Service Now.
• 1:24:16
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's not the same kind of business, it is an IT SM uh business, but it still gives you like a perspective.
• 1:24:23
  SPEAKER_01: Like they are they are just getting started.
• 1:24:25
  SPEAKER_01: You are not too late to Palantir.
• 1:24:27
  SPEAKER_01: You might overpay for Palantir, that is a different question altogether.
• 1:24:32
  SPEAKER_01: But if you're too late for Palantir, I I don't believe so at all.
• 1:24:35
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's just like early innings for Palantir.
• 1:24:39
  SPEAKER_01: I can't hear you.
• 1:24:41
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
• 1:24:43
  SPEAKER_00: Technology is so hard for me.
• 1:24:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, yes.
• 1:24:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm only at the beginning of the technology usage for investors listening.
• 1:24:51
  SPEAKER_00: I like to end on like a like a positive note, a piece of advice, something they can start implementing altogether, perhaps tomorrow, today.
• 1:25:00
  SPEAKER_00: What would be your best piece of advice to investors?
• 1:25:04
  SPEAKER_00: It can be anything, something you wanted to know starting out, something most people don't think about or underappreciate, perhaps.
• 1:25:11
  SPEAKER_00: What would you say?
• 1:25:12
  SPEAKER_00: You could take a couple seconds to think about it.
• 1:25:14
  SPEAKER_01: That that is a deep one.
• 1:25:15
  SPEAKER_01: I'll tell you something that you probably should not do.
• 1:25:18
  SPEAKER_01: So I have a YouTube channel.
• 1:25:20
  SPEAKER_01: The listeners might not be familiar with me, but I made a live stream, and for fun, you know, not financial advice, but I made like a tier list, and I thought it would be fun to put viewer portfolios in a tier list.
• 1:25:35
  SPEAKER_01: Like, what do I personally think about your stocks in your portfolio?
• 1:25:40
  SPEAKER_01: So they would give me their stocks, I would put their portfolio like in S tier, A tier, B tier, C tier, and and so forth.
• 1:25:47
  SPEAKER_01: And I noticed I did maybe 40 portfolios, like 40.
• 1:25:54
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not kidding when I say that 38 or so, they were all the same portfolio.
• 1:26:00
  SPEAKER_01: 38 were like almost exactly the same, with like one or two stocks varying.
• 1:26:04
  SPEAKER_01: So let's say on average, like 10 to 15 stocks, like 15 of those stocks were like all the same across like a majority of the viewer base.
• 1:26:14
  SPEAKER_01: So I thought like, okay, who who likes these stocks?
• 1:26:19
  SPEAKER_01: And then I thought of you know popular uh YouTube uh finance creators like uh Jeremy LaFayve, Amit Kukrija, and basically these portfolios were just copying these two investors on on YouTube.
• 1:26:35
  SPEAKER_01: Like I was like, okay, but why do you own this company?
• 1:26:37
  SPEAKER_01: They're like, well, Jeremy has it, and then out of 40 portfolios, 38 were the same.
• 1:26:42
  SPEAKER_01: So what you probably should not do is blindly follow in and replicate what someone that you might look up to or someone that you might want to learn from just because they might be doing well.
• 1:26:56
  SPEAKER_01: If if you don't understand what you own, you probably should not own it, you probably should be very cautious, you know.
• 1:27:02
  SPEAKER_01: But I was so shocked when I saw that a majority of these portfolios were like copy-paste of each other, like no variance at all.
• 1:27:10
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, even though they are my viewers, I was kind of sad to see that no one adopted my investment approach.
• 1:27:16
  SPEAKER_01: But I guess I'm not you know a one million subscriber YouTuber that is worth copying.
• 1:27:21
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, my advice would be do not blindly copy someone that you look up to.
• 1:27:27
  SPEAKER_01: You might learn from them, you might listen to why do they own this stock, why do they like it, and have it as a base for yourself.
• 1:27:34
  SPEAKER_01: Like, okay, that kind of is intriguing.
• 1:27:37
  SPEAKER_01: Like what I said about Palantir today, that might serve as a basis for you to look into the company yourself.
• 1:27:43
  SPEAKER_01: Like, see it that way instead.
• 1:27:45
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, that that would be my advice.
• 1:27:47
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, it was a very scary experience.
• 1:27:49
  SPEAKER_01: I was kind of shocked.
• 1:27:50
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:27:51
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's actually one of the best pieces of advice we've had so far.
• 1:27:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's funny because uh I think you'll You'll you'll have the same kind of experience here.
• 1:28:03
  SPEAKER_00: It's how many investors find us, perhaps you, a couple others.
• 1:28:08
  SPEAKER_00: We we really do appreciate some of the other if influencers, but there are many finfluencers out there, many people that do this for the money, and they're surprised that we have no opinion on your companies, your holdings, we don't give advice, we're we're very contrarian, we don't like to follow what other people are buying.
• 1:28:31
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I I want to be unbiased most of the time, which is very hard.
• 1:28:35
  SPEAKER_00: And when people hear this, we're kind of kind of boring to most people.
• 1:28:39
  SPEAKER_00: People want action, people investors want to see stock prices going up while we want them going down for uh for a short while so we can, you know, get some great deals, even though most of it is pretty common knowledge nowadays, with all of the literature out there and books out there, and great podcasts, and people like you, it's still so it's still contrarian to most investors.
• 1:29:03
  SPEAKER_00: It's fascinating.
• 1:29:04
  SPEAKER_00: So I do think that's a great piece of uh advice.
• 1:29:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I I think uh most viewers out there they kind of want confirmation bias.
• 1:29:13
  SPEAKER_01: So they might buy buy into a stock and then they seek out someone that is speaking positively about it because they they want that re-affirmation, you know.
• 1:29:24
  SPEAKER_01: I personally I don't watch any YouTuber, I don't follow anyone.
• 1:29:29
  SPEAKER_01: I just sit in my own bubble and I research stocks and I I publish it as objectively as I can, you know, as an analyst on my Substack.
• 1:29:39
  SPEAKER_01: People read it, I I don't tell you to go buy, I don't tell you to go sell, I just put the research out there, and then you we can discuss it if if you disagree.
• 1:29:48
  SPEAKER_01: I like it when people disagree because it might be like, oh, you you missed this aspect of the business.
• 1:29:54
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, I kind of save myself a lot of that trouble that you mentioned because my YouTube videos, we're we're talking like 40 to 60 minutes per video of just sitting in Excel and looking at numbers.
• 1:30:08
  SPEAKER_01: Like this is the most boring thing.
• 1:30:10
  SPEAKER_01: So these viewers that want that dopamine hit, like, okay, what should I buy as to today's trade?
• 1:30:16
  SPEAKER_01: Give me give me the trade what's hot right now.
• 1:30:19
  SPEAKER_01: They don't even look at my channel, do they?
• 1:30:21
  SPEAKER_01: They see that 45-minute video, they see me booting up Excel, they're like, I'm out of here.
• 1:30:26
  SPEAKER_01: So I kind of save myself a lot of that trouble, but yeah.
• 1:30:30
  SPEAKER_01: Be be careful.
• 1:30:31
  SPEAKER_01: You know, there are a lot of ways to make money.
• 1:30:34
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying my way is the only or the best way or the correct way, but it is my way, it is what I'm comfortable with.
• 1:30:41
  SPEAKER_01: You should strive to find the way that makes you sleep well at night.
• 1:30:45
  SPEAKER_01: If if you can't sleep well at night with your holdings, then it's probably a bad idea to have that holding.
• 1:30:51
  SPEAKER_01: So you should always do the sleep test.
• 1:30:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think is a very wise approach.
• 1:30:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, two two pieces of advice, and absolutely for free.
• 1:31:00
  SPEAKER_00: So that's uh that's awesome.
• 1:31:02
  SPEAKER_00: Amir, this has been great.
• 1:31:03
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I enjoy talking to you a lot, whether people love Palantir or not, people can only appreciate your honesty, your knowledge on Palantir and the company.
• 1:31:12
  SPEAKER_00: It's definitely a company worth studying, even though you're you might buy it, you might not buy it, whatever.
• 1:31:17
  SPEAKER_00: It's definitely worth studying.
• 1:31:19
  SPEAKER_01: Very unique.
• 1:31:19
  SPEAKER_01: Very unique.
• 1:31:20
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:31:21
  SPEAKER_00: So I'd like to thank you once again for taking the time to do this.
• 1:31:24
  SPEAKER_00: Where can people find and learn more about you, Amir?
• 1:31:27
  SPEAKER_00: Just uh plug some of your channels and we'll make sure to put them in uh in the description for people.
• 1:31:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, you you can find my sub stack where I publish my research at research.typefcapital.com.
• 1:31:40
  SPEAKER_01: And then my X and YouTube are the same.
• 1:31:43
  SPEAKER_01: You can probably just link it.
• 1:31:44
  SPEAKER_01: I don't need to.
• 1:31:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's like EM013L.
• 1:31:48
  SPEAKER_01: I very I should change it.
• 1:31:49
  SPEAKER_01: It's too hard to like shout out in a podcast.
• 1:31:52
  SPEAKER_01: But if there's a link, they they will find it.
• 1:31:54
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, research.typefcapital.com if you want to access my research.
• 1:31:59
  SPEAKER_01: If you think I'm wrong about what I said about Palantir, you're very welcome to DM me on X.
• 1:32:04
  SPEAKER_01: My my my DMs are open.
• 1:32:06
  SPEAKER_01: Let's uh discuss it if you disagree.
• 1:32:08
  SPEAKER_01: Very open to that always.
• 1:32:10
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying that I'm correct, this is just my understanding of the business and the way I view it.
• 1:32:15
  SPEAKER_01: So that's what I presented today.
• 1:32:17
  SPEAKER_01: Could be wrong.
• 1:32:18
  SPEAKER_01: Prove me wrong, please, if if you believe that I am.
• 1:32:21
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much for the opportunity.
• 1:32:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's not often that I uh appear on the podcast.
• 1:32:26
  SPEAKER_01: So thank you so much for this opportunity.
• 1:32:28
  SPEAKER_01: I had uh good fun too.
• 1:32:30
  SPEAKER_01: Palantir, very interesting company, very polarizing company, and I hope it was interesting to listen to.
• 1:32:37
  SPEAKER_00: Definitely.
• 1:32:37
  SPEAKER_00: I think the people listening, still listening to this after 90 minutes, those are the dedicated listeners.
• 1:32:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:32:43
  SPEAKER_00: I know some of them will still be listening here, and those will be the people that check you out as well.
• 1:32:48
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, those are the right you attract the right audience if you're still listening here.
• 1:32:52
  SPEAKER_00: So uh yeah.
• 1:32:53
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you once again, Amir.
• 1:32:55
  SPEAKER_00: And uh hopefully we'll uh we'll meet again.
• 1:32:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'm sure we will.
• 1:32:58
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
• 1:32:59
  SPEAKER_00: See you in the next one.
• 1:32:59
  SPEAKER_00: Bye bye.