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Stock market has a chance to do something unprecedented in 2025 · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: by Veterans Development Corporation. This is the Financial Exchange with
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Speaker 1: Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong.
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Speaker 2: Kicking off the second hour. Here, it's Chuck, Mike, and
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Speaker 2: Tucker with you. And we got stock selling off modestly today,
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Speaker 2: not a not a huge downward move, but downward move nonetheless.
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Speaker 2: Dow is off eighty nine points, about a little less
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Speaker 2: than a quarter percent. SP's down thirty one, about half
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Speaker 2: a percent, the Nasdak down one.
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Speaker 3: Thirty four to three.
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Speaker 2: Uh, but three quarters of a percent downward move on
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Speaker 2: the on the Nasdaq, and so all three major US
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Speaker 2: indices are drifting somewhat negatively. Again, nothing huge, but some
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Speaker 2: downward movement here. Tenure US Treasury selling off a little
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Speaker 2: bit as well, up three point three basis points to
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Speaker 2: four point one to eighty six.
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Speaker 3: Still in a little bit of a.
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Speaker 2: Downtrend, but uh, joe, maybe a little bit of firmness
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Speaker 2: in the mid mid teens there for.
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Speaker 3: The ten year US treasury.
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Speaker 2: We've got oil up a dollar forty seven to sixty
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Speaker 2: eight sixty seven a barrel right now, that largely on
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Speaker 2: the back of China throwing some more stimulus at their
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Speaker 2: economic problems.
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Speaker 3: Tripa national average four.
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Speaker 2: Gas prices flat overnight at three oh one and eight tenths,
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Speaker 2: So we still can't get below that three dollars mark nationally.
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Speaker 2: We are just knocking on the door right now. We
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Speaker 2: need just a little bit of help to get there,
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Speaker 2: but we're getting close. We're getting close. Pennsylvania not helping
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Speaker 2: us out there. Gas prices actually have moved up a
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Speaker 2: touch over the last week. I don't know exactly why.
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Speaker 2: It can be any one of like sixty three million
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Speaker 2: factors technically, but Pennsylvania is what's holding us back right now.
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Speaker 2: So get those prices down Pennsylvania, and then we've got
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Speaker 2: gold today moving up just a bit as well, up
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Speaker 2: thirty one thirty ouns to twenty six ninety and ninety.
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Speaker 2: Since there's a piece in the Wall Street Journal here,
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Speaker 2: it's titled can stocks pull off a third consecutive year
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Speaker 2: of big gains?
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Speaker 3: What do they say? Can it? Can?
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Speaker 1: They?
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Speaker 3: Yeah? Can them? Can them? Can? Can? Can? Us can? Can?
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Speaker 3: And y'all can can ye? Probably not a great way
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Speaker 3: to look at you or even ask the question. I
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Speaker 3: suppose you could pull a statistical analysis of how many
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Speaker 3: years have generated what did twenty three do in terms
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Speaker 3: of total return? On the s and P twenty plus percent, right,
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Speaker 3: give me a second, Give me just one second. I
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Speaker 3: gotta pull it up by year you want.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, So twenty twenty three total return was twenty
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Speaker 2: six point twenty nine. This year thus far as twenty
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Speaker 2: nine point three four.
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Speaker 3: So you know, you could certainly run a statistical analysis
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Speaker 3: on how many years have generated three years in a
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Speaker 3: row of twenty plus percent returns. I'm sure it's some,
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Speaker 3: you know, very small fraction of them, but it doesn't
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Speaker 3: really tell you much of anything, and I do think
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Speaker 3: that this article tells you really much of anything other
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Speaker 3: than it'll probably be a challenge because it's probably pretty
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Speaker 3: ready for it to happen. I think a more useful
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Speaker 3: question perhaps if you are I'm trying to think of
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Speaker 3: who might be reading an article like this and trying
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Speaker 3: to do something with it. Maybe you have recently come
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Speaker 3: into money that you need to invest, or you are
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Speaker 3: trying to get educated on markets and investing for your
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Speaker 3: first time. I think maybe a more interesting and more
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Speaker 3: informative piece would be how have equity markets fared historically
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Speaker 3: when they've been relatively expensive as they are now? Rather
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Speaker 3: than hey, can they pull off a third consecutive year
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Speaker 3: of big gains again. Yeah, Like markets have pulled off
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Speaker 3: three consecutive years of great gains in the past when
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Speaker 3: they've been coming from really low starting points, it's been
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Speaker 3: a great time to invest. Even after they've done so,
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Speaker 3: there have been other points where Yeah, late nineties, for example,
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Speaker 3: you get three years of fantastic returns in a row
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Speaker 3: prior to one of the biggest selloffs in all times.
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Speaker 3: Cont ten years a fantastic year returns to row five
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Speaker 3: of twenty plus percent returns.
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Speaker 2: One of them was not like nineteen nine, so you
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Speaker 2: didn't quite get there, but uh sure again, so here's
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Speaker 2: what you saw in the nineties, just as an example. Actually, no,
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Speaker 2: it was five of twenty plus for total return. I
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Speaker 2: was just looking at price return. Price return ninety five
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Speaker 2: was thirty seven, ninety six, twenty two, ninety seven, thirty three,
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Speaker 2: ninety eight, twenty eight, ninety nine, twenty great stat from
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Speaker 2: Bank of America. Is surprised that this Wall Street Journal
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Speaker 2: piece didn't include this in it because Bank of America
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Speaker 2: published this like three weeks ago in November. But the
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Speaker 2: S and P five hundred has been up greater than
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Speaker 2: twenty percent for two years four times in the past
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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty years. This even like predates the official
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Speaker 2: S and P. Five hundred, it's going back to Like
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Speaker 2: his predecessors, the first one any guesses is to win.
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Speaker 2: The first time this happened was nineteen nineteen, nineteen twenty seven,
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Speaker 2: and twenty eight. The bad news nineteen twenty nine came after. Yeah,
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Speaker 2: remember that one, tough one, and then nineteen thirty came
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Speaker 2: after the market lost twelve percent and twenty nine and
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Speaker 2: twenty eight percent in nineteen.
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Speaker 3: Thirty and kicked off the great depression. Not great.
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Speaker 2: Next one nineteen thirty five thirty six, made forty two
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Speaker 2: and twenty eight percent. What did it do the next
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Speaker 2: two years? Lost thirty nine and then made twenty five Okay, okay,
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Speaker 2: So didn't get it on that one. Next one nineteen
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Speaker 2: forty five and nineteen fifty five, I remember it like
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Speaker 2: it was yesterday, up forty five percent and fifty four,
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Speaker 2: up fifty twenty six percent and fifty five squeaked out
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Speaker 2: a three percent gain in fifty six before being down
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Speaker 2: fourteen and fifty seven.
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Speaker 3: So I think the key here is in these historical examples,
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Speaker 3: not every single one of them leads to devastation in markets.
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Speaker 2: No, the only one where you saw the follow through
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Speaker 2: was in uh ninety five ninety six. And in that case,
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Speaker 2: like you did see you know, positive movement actually, so
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Speaker 2: okay great, Like there in ninety seven you saw you know,
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Speaker 2: thirty one percent, ninety eight you saw twenty seven.
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Speaker 3: Uh.
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Speaker 2: And so the question is, hey, what do we get
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Speaker 2: in twenty five and twenty six. Ultimately, Hey, this is
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Speaker 2: such a small sample size. It doesn't mean anything. Nothing
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Speaker 2: means nothing.
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Speaker 3: A sample size of four.
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Speaker 2: Imagine flipping a coin four times and it comes up
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Speaker 2: heads all four and you go to your buddy and
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Speaker 2: you're like, hey, Jimmy.
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Speaker 3: Got a magic coin. I got a magic coin. We
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Speaker 3: gotta go play the ponies. Yeah, yeah, that's stupid.
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Speaker 2: Like that's basically what you're doing with a sample size
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Speaker 2: of four.
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Speaker 3: So again I think useful analysis might be you know,
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Speaker 3: some bigger sample sizes. You have some decent number of
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Speaker 3: sample sizes when you talk about equity markets with valuations
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Speaker 3: you know, PE ratios over eighteen nineteen twenty for example,
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Speaker 3: and then looking at how markets are fared for decades
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Speaker 3: after that again tells you nothing about the just through
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Speaker 3: my pens. So all fired up here tells you nothing
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Speaker 3: about the short term timing of markets, but might indicate
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Speaker 3: to you what your long term perspective should be of
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Speaker 3: how things might fare over a decade. But reading into
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Speaker 3: what happened the last two years and then what's going
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Speaker 3: to happen in the third year, I don't know, Like
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Speaker 3: Chuck said, flip a.
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Speaker 2: Coin and like, yeah you have, you have no idea,
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Speaker 2: Like just just admit you don't know based on past
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Speaker 2: It's printed in every single disclosure that any financial institution
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Speaker 2: that invests in puts out past performance is not indicative
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Speaker 2: of future results. Like staplet on your forehead. Don't don't
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Speaker 2: actually do that that that would hurt. Use like a
8:31
Speaker 2: nice light tape, like a masking tape or something like
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Speaker 2: that comes off easily.
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Speaker 3: It comes off too easily for a post it note.
8:37
Speaker 3: You want something that sticks.
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Speaker 4: Painter's tape, m not sticky enough, not enough stick, not
8:43
Speaker 4: enough stick, masking tape.
8:45
Speaker 2: I'm thinking masking tape, which I wonder what like the
8:47
Speaker 2: key differences between that and painter's tape, because they seem
8:50
Speaker 2: like cousins.
8:51
Speaker 3: I would just go with whatever they use at waxing
8:53
Speaker 3: salons and see what happens. I've never been to a
8:56
Speaker 3: waxing salon nor a vibe, but I've seen for year
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Speaker 3: old virgin. No, that's funny. Let's take a quick break
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Speaker 3: when we come back trivia right after this.
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Speaker 4: All right, time for trivia Here on the Financial Exchange.
9:44
Speaker 4: On Saturday, at an auction in Dallas, Texas, Judy Garlands
9:48
Speaker 4: ruby slippers worn in the Wizard of Oz sold for
9:51
Speaker 4: a record twenty eight million dollars. According to the auction
9:55
Speaker 4: house who sold the slippers, the twenty eight million dollar
9:58
Speaker 4: price tag is the highest ever for a piece of
10:01
Speaker 4: entertainment memorabilia. I doubt the ruby slippers worn by Dorothy
10:05
Speaker 4: in the nineteen seventy eight remake We'll go for that
10:08
Speaker 4: much trivia question today. Who played Dorothy in the nineteen
10:13
Speaker 4: seventy eight movie The Whiz?
10:14
Speaker 3: Once again?
10:15
Speaker 4: Who played Dorothy in the nineteen seventy eight.
10:18
Speaker 3: Movie The Whiz.
10:20
Speaker 4: Be the fourth person today to text us at six
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Speaker 4: one seven three six two thirteen eighty five with the
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10:42
Speaker 2: Piece in the Wall Street Journal, Dividend stocks are primed
10:47
Speaker 2: for a comeback in twenty twenty five.
10:50
Speaker 3: Sometimes Tuger just pokes the bear here First the startinly
10:54
Speaker 3: saw this one. It was just like Sunday morning. Toss
10:57
Speaker 3: it in there.
10:57
Speaker 4: I saw it in my Sunday morning coffee stir.
10:59
Speaker 3: So the first ridiculous story we covered. Can stocks pull
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Speaker 3: off a third consecutive year of big gains? Next we
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Speaker 3: get dividend stocks are primed for it comeback in twenty
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Speaker 3: twenty five? Chuck, how many times have you seen this
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Speaker 3: exact article written about either dividend stocks, European stocks, or
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Speaker 3: small caps uh, don't forget emerging markets and emerging markets. Yeah,
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Speaker 3: basically every year for the last fifteen Yes, yeah, yeah,
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Speaker 3: about all four of them. Frank.
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Speaker 2: Not only has it been written, I've gone to conferences
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Speaker 2: in January where this is the year for them. That's
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Speaker 2: the voice they use when pitching it.
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Speaker 3: So again, past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Speaker 3: Maybe it is the year for dividend stocks coming back.
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Speaker 3: But if it is and somebody's telling you, so, ask
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Speaker 3: them how many times they predicted that was going to
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Speaker 3: be the case for the last fifteen years first, because
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Speaker 3: then you can at least get it somebody's value judgment.
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Speaker 2: Well, and if someone is like if you're interviewing someone
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Speaker 2: about this, because they they did interview an investment manager
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Speaker 2: in here, Chris o'kiefho's a portfolio manager at Logan Capital Management,
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Speaker 2: And the question is, okay, like, why are you if
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Speaker 2: this is the case you make your money based on
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Speaker 2: having good performance, which means that you need to be
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Speaker 2: there first, why are you talking about how good of
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Speaker 2: a year it's going to be. I guess he's already
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Speaker 2: there first, So like, let's acknowledge the inherent potential conflict
12:29
Speaker 2: of interest, Hey, everybody buy my book. And this is
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Speaker 2: not to say that this is or is not going
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Speaker 2: to play out. I have no idea. I say this
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Speaker 2: over and over again. I don't know what stocks are
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Speaker 2: gonna do next year, But neither do the headline writers
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Speaker 2: of the Wall Street Journal. If they did, they wouldn't
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Speaker 2: be writing headlines for lot lines. Actually, I take that back,
12:54
Speaker 2: my ultimate. I have a buddy of mine who he
12:57
Speaker 2: writes headlines for the New York Post, and man, what
13:02
Speaker 2: a job that must be.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, but if you could be making fifty million dollars
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Speaker 3: a year running a private equity fund, do you think
13:07
Speaker 3: you would take that instead? Well, money talks, Chuck. Maybe
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Speaker 3: where I.
13:15
Speaker 2: Was going with this is I often say that my
13:17
Speaker 2: ideal retirement job would be like serving soft serve at
13:20
Speaker 2: dairy Queen. It might be writing headlines for the New
13:24
Speaker 2: York Post because you could certainly do a lot. The
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Speaker 2: Post gives you a little bit of creative latitude. Oh yeah,
13:31
Speaker 2: more than the Journal, you know.
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Speaker 3: So I don't know.
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Speaker 2: That's all I know is, Hey, no one knows what
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Speaker 2: dividend stocks are going to do next year, and the
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Speaker 2: people who do, they're not publishing it in the Wall Street.
13:44
Speaker 3: Journal potentially newsworthy of breaking news. According to CNBC, a
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Speaker 3: man who is being questioned in Pennsylvania regarding the United
13:53
Speaker 3: Healthcare CEO slaying. We'll see what comes of it.
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Speaker 2: Yea Apple topping the list of best managed companies of
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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. Who do they interview for the best
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Speaker 2: managed companies? Is it the managers? So here here's the thing.
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Speaker 2: This is the man I'm going to quote here from
14:14
Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal because it kind of answers. This
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Speaker 2: the management top two fifty rankings. So this is the
14:18
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal's list compares companies using the late management
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Speaker 2: guru Peter Drucker's principles to identify the most effectively managed businesses.
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Speaker 2: This year, eight hundred and forty two companies were graded
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Speaker 2: in five categories customer satisfaction, innovation, social responsibility, employee engagement
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Speaker 2: and development, and financial strength based on thirty five indicators supplied.
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Speaker 3: By third party data providers.
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Speaker 2: So they're not interviewing anyone, they're not except kind of
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Speaker 2: with employee engagement in development and customer satisfaction.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, but they're not doing the interviewing, correct, They're grabbing
14:49
Speaker 3: somebody else's data. So a couple.
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Speaker 2: Interesting things here on this because again I don't know
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Speaker 2: how one simply doesn't It almost seem kind of lazy
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Speaker 2: that Apple gets to win this.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, where's the cut? Like you'd like to see some
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Speaker 3: company that nobody's ever heard of at least making somewhere
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Speaker 3: in the ranking, and not just that.
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Speaker 2: Apple not only named the number one NAB the number
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Speaker 2: one spot on the list, but also managed to emerge
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Speaker 2: is the only all star in this year's ranking.
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Speaker 3: You're telling me that there's not some eight person company
15:24
Speaker 3: about based in Boise that's running things a little bit
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Speaker 3: better than Apple, Right, there.
15:29
Speaker 2: Has to be some guy who's written the Excel code
15:32
Speaker 2: that powers the Pentagon that's getting paid a boatload because
15:37
Speaker 2: he just like is the only person in the world
15:39
Speaker 2: that can do it. Who's a little bit more, you know.
15:42
Speaker 2: But I get what they're doing.
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Speaker 3: I hear he's not terribly socially responsible though, Chuck.
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Speaker 2: The customer top ten, So this one's interesting to me.
15:49
Speaker 3: This is customer satisfaction. Yeah, I like this one number one,
15:54
Speaker 3: not Apple, Iron Mountain. Raise your hand if you don't
15:58
Speaker 3: know what we're talking about. I know both of us
16:00
Speaker 3: know what they do. Sure, shredding and like data storage
16:04
Speaker 3: and destruction company.
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Speaker 2: The number one for customer satisfaction. To be fair, you
16:10
Speaker 2: gotta be pretty bad at shredding if you have low
16:14
Speaker 2: customer satisfaction.
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Speaker 3: Okay, Like the only way that you get.
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Speaker 2: Low satisfaction as a shredder data breach. Okay, the two
16:22
Speaker 2: options one data breach. Two your customer finds like an
16:26
Speaker 2: unshredded document behind the truck as they're driving away, something
16:30
Speaker 2: like that. Number two for highest customer satisfaction. This one's
16:35
Speaker 2: really interesting to me.
16:37
Speaker 3: Intel very good to their customers, not very good at
16:41
Speaker 3: much else. Yeah.
16:44
Speaker 1: Right.
16:46
Speaker 3: The number three one ball b a LLL. Are you
16:50
Speaker 3: familiar with them? Mike? No, Tucker, are you familiar with them? Nope?
16:53
Speaker 3: Tennis ball. You ever drink beer out of a Mason jar? No?
16:57
Speaker 3: They mad?
16:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, yeah, they make Mason jars. They're also the
17:03
Speaker 2: uh naming sponsor for some NBA arena.
17:07
Speaker 3: Why are you drinking beer out of a Mason jar?
17:09
Speaker 2: Just to clarify Kenny Chesney song, Oh, I couldn't win
17:11
Speaker 2: with a pickle, drank beer out of a mason It
17:14
Speaker 2: was about the dog it Bocephus got it.
17:17
Speaker 3: He was living in the front yard. Got it. Anyways.
17:20
Speaker 2: But yeah, so Ball sponsors an NBA arena, which is
17:23
Speaker 2: like kind of the most under the radar sponsor.
17:26
Speaker 3: Hey, what do you do? We make old school Mason Jars.
17:30
Speaker 3: I'll tell you what. We've done the same thing for
17:31
Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty years.
17:33
Speaker 2: Why are you on the NBA floors as the arena sponsor. Well,
17:37
Speaker 2: we ran out of Mason Jars, we sold too many.
17:40
Speaker 2: Owen's Courting, Stela Air, uh Deer, Johnson Controls, pro Logist, Caterpillar,
17:46
Speaker 2: and Train Technologies.
17:49
Speaker 3: Just kind of a weird list, like there's no there's
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Speaker 3: no rhyme or reason. I guess it's a lot of
17:56
Speaker 3: industrial companies again B to B. It's a lot of
17:58
Speaker 3: B to B on that financial strength. They are just
18:01
Speaker 3: the largest companies out there, the most profitable companies out there.
18:03
Speaker 3: So don't pay attention to that. That's not important. And Vidia, Apple, Microsoft,
18:07
Speaker 3: great cool employee top ten. I don't know, this is
18:10
Speaker 3: somewhat interesting Texas Pacific Land. What is that? No clue?
18:16
Speaker 3: Look it up while we go in Video's number two. So,
18:19
Speaker 3: for what it's worth, people who worked at in Nvidia
18:21
Speaker 3: probably made a whole boatload of money on stock options
18:24
Speaker 3: over the last few years are probably pretty happy about
18:25
Speaker 3: where they work into IT service now Autodesk, Cadence Design Systems, Adobe, Cisco,
18:32
Speaker 3: and Conaco are actually tied for eighth and ninth, and
18:34
Speaker 3: then Microsoft and Philip Morris being tied for number ten.
18:38
Speaker 3: You ever run across a Wikipedia page that just makes
18:40
Speaker 3: you giggle? Yes, frequently.
18:42
Speaker 2: The Texas Pacific Land Corporation.
18:44
Speaker 3: It's a publicly traded.
18:45
Speaker 2: Real estate operating with an administrative office in Dallas, Texas.
18:49
Speaker 2: It owns over eight hundred and eighty thousand acres of
18:52
Speaker 2: land and twenty West Texas counties. It's among the largest
18:54
Speaker 2: private landowners in the state of Texas.
18:58
Speaker 3: TPL has two.
18:59
Speaker 2: Business lines, royalties from oil and gas and selling water.
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Speaker 3: Okay, straightforward business, but you know it's just one of
19:09
Speaker 3: those where you read it and you go, yep, I
19:11
Speaker 3: get exactly what they did. They bought up a whole.
19:13
Speaker 2: Bunch of land and now they're just selling the mineral rights.
19:15
Speaker 3: I hope they have like seventy employees and they're making
19:18
Speaker 3: the top ten list of employees at Mike ninety nine.
19:25
Speaker 3: How does the Wall Street Journal find these companies?
19:27
Speaker 2: Revenue six hundred and thirty one million dollars operating income
19:30
Speaker 2: four hundred and eighty six. Of course theyround the employee
19:32
Speaker 2: top ten. They all make five million dollars. Quick Break,
19:36
Speaker 2: Quick Break Trivia's Answers.
19:38
Speaker 1: Next, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
19:44
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20:00
Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:05
Speaker 3: Trinity.
20:06
Speaker 4: Question today was who played Dorothy in the nineteen seventy
20:10
Speaker 4: eight movie The Whiz That would be Diana Ross that
20:13
Speaker 4: featured Diana Ross's Dorothy. Michael Jackson is Scarecrow and Richard
20:18
Speaker 4: Pryor as the Wiz. Even with that star power, The
20:21
Speaker 4: Whiz failed at the box office and ultimately lost the
20:25
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20:30
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20:34
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20:38
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20:41
Speaker 2: Mike, we got a piece here today. It is from
20:45
Speaker 2: Baron's 's titled Seven Seniors Tell Why They won't retire.
20:49
Speaker 2: It isn't about the money.
20:53
Speaker 3: Just to make a point about how common this is today.
20:56
Speaker 3: Either you have any guesses as to what portion of
20:59
Speaker 3: sixty five plus year olds without a disability are still
21:02
Speaker 3: working right now, So percentage wise thirty eight less seven
21:09
Speaker 3: twenty three, good guest, Tucker. The highest it's ever been
21:13
Speaker 3: was right before the COVID crisis at twenty five point
21:17
Speaker 3: two percent. Actually, I'm going to take that back because
21:19
Speaker 3: we don't have data going back any further than O eight,
21:21
Speaker 3: So I don't know where this was back in the
21:22
Speaker 3: late nineties, early two thousand, lower, But yeah, this is
21:26
Speaker 3: a growing trend that it was probably lower at any
21:30
Speaker 3: point in history, and I don't know. I'll talk about
21:33
Speaker 3: this first hand, Chuck. I would say that some of
21:36
Speaker 3: my many of my happiest clients, as like a financial
21:41
Speaker 3: investment advisor, are those that worked pretty continuously into their
21:46
Speaker 3: late sixties and early seventies in sometimes very different roles
21:51
Speaker 3: than their primary profession. When they were working, you know,
21:54
Speaker 3: earning the most that they possibly could, but quite content,
21:59
Speaker 3: very sharp, and in a way that I think many
22:03
Speaker 3: of my other clients who just you know, cut all
22:05
Speaker 3: ties and leave work at a specific point have been
22:08
Speaker 3: in their retirements.
22:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think it's something where look, each and
22:14
Speaker 2: each of us has kind of our own thoughts about
22:16
Speaker 2: what we want to be doing when we, you know,
22:20
Speaker 2: get older and into and close to retirement. And again
22:25
Speaker 2: it can simply be, hey, I do want to keep
22:28
Speaker 2: sharp and it is you know, that thing that keeps,
22:30
Speaker 2: you know, getting me out of bed every morning.
22:32
Speaker 3: It can be hey.
22:33
Speaker 2: You know, I do want to lose the stress of
22:36
Speaker 2: what I was doing, but I still want to do
22:38
Speaker 2: something and you know that still gets people, you know,
22:41
Speaker 2: to not retire.
22:42
Speaker 3: But it is It's true.
22:45
Speaker 2: It's it's not always about the money as far as
22:48
Speaker 2: why someone decides to retire or not. It can be
22:52
Speaker 2: very much you know, personality, trait driven and things along
22:57
Speaker 2: those lines as well.
22:58
Speaker 3: So I mean, I know, I just did say, hey,
23:00
Speaker 3: you know, twenty three percent of sixty five plus year
23:03
Speaker 3: olds today are working in a job, and I think
23:05
Speaker 3: it's it's very common. But one thing I will say
23:08
Speaker 3: is more common than seeing people work into their seventies,
23:11
Speaker 3: for example, is people continue to work because they just
23:15
Speaker 3: have no idea whether or not they have enough money
23:17
Speaker 3: to retire. Like I know, this article is all about Hey,
23:20
Speaker 3: it's not about the money for me. I can't tell
23:22
Speaker 3: you how many people I talked to who come in
23:24
Speaker 3: and say, I'm sixty six years old. I'm seventy years old.
23:28
Speaker 3: I've still been working. I've just had my head down.
23:30
Speaker 3: I have no clue whether or not I can actually
23:33
Speaker 3: afford to retire based on what I'm doing right now.
23:35
Speaker 3: I think I might be able to, but I don't
23:37
Speaker 3: really know. Or maybe they're sixty one and have this
23:40
Speaker 3: dream of retiring at sixty five, but I've never actually
23:43
Speaker 3: run the numbers to analyze whether or not they can
23:46
Speaker 3: effectively retire. And speaking with all of the financial advisors
23:50
Speaker 3: that work at Armstrong, I can tell you one of
23:53
Speaker 3: the most rewarding things that we do as primarily retirement
23:58
Speaker 3: planners and financial advisors is being able to tell somebody that, oh, yeah,
24:02
Speaker 3: like love that you love your job and you're gonna
24:04
Speaker 3: keep working till sixty eight years old. That's great, but
24:06
Speaker 3: just so you know, we can make this work if
24:09
Speaker 3: you wanted to retire or needed to retire at sixty six.
24:11
Speaker 3: The look of sometimes astonishment, but oftentimes just relief in knowing, Hey,
24:17
Speaker 3: I love this job, I'm gonna continue working, but if
24:20
Speaker 3: it doesn't work out the way I like it to,
24:21
Speaker 3: I've got the security and peace of mind of knowing
24:24
Speaker 3: that I can make it without this income. That's to me,
24:28
Speaker 3: the single biggest piece of retirement planning and financial planning
24:32
Speaker 3: is that check mark saying yeah, I know now that
24:36
Speaker 3: if this job doesn't work out, or it becomes too stressful,
24:39
Speaker 3: or my health deteriorates in some way, shape or form,
24:42
Speaker 3: that I can afford to retire, and maybe I can
24:44
Speaker 3: even do it a few years earlier than I thought
24:46
Speaker 3: I could. If you are thinking about that, if you
24:50
Speaker 3: have those questions in the back of your mind and
24:52
Speaker 3: are not one hundred percent confident in the answer, I
24:55
Speaker 3: just can tell you what a stress relief it has
24:57
Speaker 3: been for people that I've worked with when they know
24:59
Speaker 3: the answer to that question. If you're trying to answer
25:02
Speaker 3: it on your own and would like a little bit
25:04
Speaker 3: of help with it, please call the Armstrong Advisory Group
25:06
Speaker 3: at eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
25:09
Speaker 3: We offer free consultations to folks that are trying to
25:13
Speaker 3: answer those types of questions, and you can meet with
25:15
Speaker 3: us in person over the phone via zoom, but start
25:17
Speaker 3: off by giving us a call at eight hundred three
25:20
Speaker 3: nine three for zero zero one.
25:23
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
25:26
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
25:28
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
25:31
Speaker 1: your own financial, tax into state planning advisors before making
25:34
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
25:37
Speaker 1: advisory services.
25:39
Speaker 2: I want to talk about retail returns, Tuck. How often
25:43
Speaker 2: do you buy something either in person or online and
25:46
Speaker 2: you're like, man, it's not working, gotta return it.
25:51
Speaker 4: I mean it's more often my wife that does this
25:53
Speaker 4: because he wants to try something for the kids and
25:55
Speaker 4: then it doesn't fit. That's the whole thing.
25:58
Speaker 3: So I don't know.
26:00
Speaker 4: Forty percent of the time, thirty percent of the time, Like.
26:02
Speaker 3: How many times a month does that work out too?
26:05
Speaker 1: I don't know.
26:06
Speaker 3: I'm just asking question, man, I'm just wondering. Maybe less.
26:11
Speaker 3: I don't know, Mike, what about you? Yeah, two to
26:16
Speaker 3: four on a monthly basis.
26:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, I might have, like you know, a dozen of
26:20
Speaker 2: these years, so maybe like one, maybe two. But retail
26:25
Speaker 2: returns are expected to total eight hundred and ninety billion
26:28
Speaker 2: dollars this year seventeen percent of all goods sold.
26:33
Speaker 3: It's a giant trash heap.
26:35
Speaker 2: And look, if I'm being completely ass I have something
26:38
Speaker 2: in the backseat of my car right now that I
26:41
Speaker 2: need to return. But it's the reason I'm returning that
26:45
Speaker 2: is because it was damaged upon shipping. And so hey,
26:48
Speaker 2: if you're buying something new, like, yeah, I don't want
26:50
Speaker 2: it to be damaged like the box had a big
26:52
Speaker 2: hole punched in it when when we got it.
26:54
Speaker 3: So problematic.
26:57
Speaker 2: But when we talk about all of these returns, there's
26:59
Speaker 2: a couple different things that are problems about it. The
27:03
Speaker 2: first is, hey, you're basically paying either you or the company,
27:10
Speaker 2: like someone's paying a bunch of money just to ship
27:12
Speaker 2: stuff back and forth. So it's not efficient from that perspective.
27:17
Speaker 2: Second piece, Hey, you're also using a whole bunch of
27:22
Speaker 2: gas in order to that. There's finite resources. You got
27:25
Speaker 2: concerns about, you know, climate change and things like you say, okay,
27:28
Speaker 2: like this is not exactly what we want to be doing,
27:30
Speaker 2: just like shipping.
27:31
Speaker 3: Stuff back and forth. Right.
27:33
Speaker 2: The third piece, if you're a retailer, hey, you're having
27:38
Speaker 2: to deal with like figuring out what your inventory looks
27:40
Speaker 2: like and Hey, how much am I expecting to be returned?
27:43
Speaker 3: And this and that.
27:45
Speaker 2: I just wonder do we get to a point where
27:48
Speaker 2: this has been creeping up for years, Like last year
27:50
Speaker 2: the return rate was about fifteen percent, this year at seventeen.
27:53
Speaker 2: At what point does Amazon or wal Mart or whoever say, Hey,
28:00
Speaker 2: you're a high volume returner, we're capping your returns because
28:05
Speaker 2: you're abusing the process. And here's where it's going to be.
28:10
Speaker 2: It's gonna be where we're losing so much money on
28:14
Speaker 2: you that it's not worth it for us anymore to
28:16
Speaker 2: have your business.
28:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, that one's going to be probably tough to implement. Right.
28:23
Speaker 3: The reason that part of the reason that online shopping
28:26
Speaker 3: has been so successful is because, whether it's true or not,
28:30
Speaker 3: they at least stand behind the idea of an easy
28:33
Speaker 3: to process return and so they have entire business lines
28:35
Speaker 3: that if they start cutting out on this, it'll be challenging.
28:38
Speaker 3: But I will say that there are businesses that have
28:41
Speaker 3: been really, really successful in conveying that you won't be
28:45
Speaker 3: able to return this. Look at Tamu and what's the
28:48
Speaker 3: other shine like, good luck returning something that you brought
28:52
Speaker 3: on either of those platforms to that retailer. It's not
28:56
Speaker 3: going to happen. Do they not have I don't know
28:58
Speaker 3: their iams. I have no idea, but it's shipping directly
29:02
Speaker 3: from China. I don't even know what the process would
29:04
Speaker 3: look like. And I assume you would pay a fair
29:05
Speaker 3: bit in order to return it. I think that there
29:09
Speaker 3: actually could be a separate business model that Amazon would
29:11
Speaker 3: have to segregate. But like, hey, the stuff here is
29:14
Speaker 3: pretty cheap, but we don't do returns. You don't like it?
29:18
Speaker 2: I think they have no I mean, think about how
29:21
Speaker 2: many other businesses when someone's abusing the privileges just boot
29:26
Speaker 2: them out, just throttle, like, think about it. And I
29:29
Speaker 2: know that like no one really likes the cable companies,
29:32
Speaker 2: but hey, if you are downloading five trillion shows a day,
29:38
Speaker 2: eventually you get to a point where they're like, no,
29:40
Speaker 2: you're not getting any more bandwidth, right.
29:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I guess that could just be a membership
29:46
Speaker 3: piece of Prime is Hey you get thirty free returns
29:51
Speaker 3: per year.
29:52
Speaker 2: You could even make tiers of Prime. Hey you pay
29:55
Speaker 2: the base rate, great, you're gonna get twenty five free returns.
29:58
Speaker 2: You want more than that? You want between I mean,
30:00
Speaker 2: you know twenty six and fifty. It's an extra twenty bucks.
30:02
Speaker 2: You want fifty plus, it's an extra one hundred bucks
30:05
Speaker 2: a year. Okay, Like that's reasonable because as someone who
30:09
Speaker 2: doesn't return a ton of stuff, you're just paying for
30:12
Speaker 2: all the rest of it. Y, I'm paying for all
30:13
Speaker 2: your returns. Man, I don't want to do that.
30:16
Speaker 3: Yeah.
30:17
Speaker 2: Now, the obviously other way that you do this is okay,
30:20
Speaker 2: go to another retailer. But this is not an Amazon
30:23
Speaker 2: only thing. This isn't every one thing right now.
30:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, the counterpoint to this would be, this is pretty
30:28
Speaker 3: much what the airlines have done is create a whole
30:32
Speaker 3: bunch of different levels of pricing and teering and ancillary fees,
30:37
Speaker 3: and people aren't terribly happy with that either, et cetera.
30:41
Speaker 3: Right now, it's all bundled, right whether you return or not,
30:43
Speaker 3: it's the same price. If you want to start unbundling it,
30:46
Speaker 3: I'm sure other people will not be terribly excited about that.
30:50
Speaker 2: I don't want to pay for their returns, Mike, here,
30:52
Speaker 2: you I just I don't need that, you know, let's
30:57
Speaker 2: take a quick break here. When we come back, let's
31:00
Speaker 2: do a little bit of stock rout.
31:01
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32:00
Speaker 3: Mike, what do you got for stack Roulette? I want
32:02
Speaker 3: to talk a bit about cash payments increasingly going digital.
32:06
Speaker 3: Many including our senior population, still relying on cash. But
32:11
Speaker 3: this is no longer just at sports venues, right. That's
32:16
Speaker 3: kind of where is there anything that occurred first before
32:20
Speaker 3: that to you, like where cash was just eliminated entirely,
32:24
Speaker 3: to me, that was the first. In other places that
32:28
Speaker 3: you just can't use cash anymore, and it's I don't
32:33
Speaker 3: think causing massive problems, But it's one thing when it's
32:36
Speaker 3: a sports venue, when you can fairly readily use the
32:39
Speaker 3: tools there to convert cash into a debit card or
32:42
Speaker 3: something else along those lines. When we're now getting to
32:45
Speaker 3: the place where it's in a lot of other locations.
32:48
Speaker 3: They talk about a hot dog vendor, they talk about
32:50
Speaker 3: plenty of other locations where I mean airplanes you can't
32:54
Speaker 3: use cash on an airplane, and many other places that
32:57
Speaker 3: it's just being bad entirely, and I guess poses a
33:02
Speaker 3: few problems. One problems for people that are just unfamiliar
33:05
Speaker 3: with the technology, which these days is few and far between. Sure,
33:10
Speaker 3: there's problems for those that are unbanked, so you don't
33:12
Speaker 3: literally don't have a bank account. How do you process
33:16
Speaker 3: things you can't. The third would be in the event
33:19
Speaker 3: of a severe disruption to power or internet, then you
33:26
Speaker 3: suddenly just have no means of processing payments, which is
33:30
Speaker 3: probably a bigger issue. If I think about potential hacking
33:33
Speaker 3: and things like that.
33:34
Speaker 2: Well, look the other thing, all those systems are inherently vulnerable.
33:38
Speaker 2: If you have all the financial information for you know,
33:41
Speaker 2: millions of people housed at one bank, that becomes a
33:45
Speaker 2: target in a way that hey, if you're just holding cash,
33:49
Speaker 2: someone asked to specifically try to find you.
33:53
Speaker 3: That said the guy selling hot dogs in Chicago who
33:57
Speaker 3: is getting robbed every you know, six months and either
34:02
Speaker 3: buy his employees or buy people at gunpoints. Taking cash
34:04
Speaker 3: out of the system. Kind of get why they want
34:06
Speaker 3: to move to electronic processing. And I bet it's cut
34:08
Speaker 3: way down on theft.
34:11
Speaker 2: So it's something where there are pros and cons on this.
34:14
Speaker 2: I'm a big believer that unless you want to guarantee
34:22
Speaker 2: people access to the banking system, which is what you
34:24
Speaker 2: need in order to get a debit card or credit card,
34:28
Speaker 2: then you need to build provisions in so that you
34:30
Speaker 2: can accept cash or accept the exchange into a card
34:34
Speaker 2: system from cash, like they do at ballparks and.
34:37
Speaker 3: Stuff like that. But whose responsibility is that, right, Because
34:39
Speaker 3: if I'm the hot dog vendor, I don't think it's
34:41
Speaker 3: my responsibility, you know. No, it's a tough one, right,
34:45
Speaker 3: Like I'm not going to put that on the small business.
34:48
Speaker 3: I don't have a good answer on it. Right. It's
34:52
Speaker 3: some governments, by the way, have said I don't think
34:54
Speaker 3: I've seen it at the state level, but I think
34:56
Speaker 3: some governments have said, now you must accept cash if
35:00
Speaker 3: you are conducting business within this city or this.
35:03
Speaker 2: I don't love forcing people like businesses to accept cash,
35:06
Speaker 2: and they don't want to no do I. So I
35:09
Speaker 2: this is one of those where I simply nod my
35:12
Speaker 2: head and say, not my problem. Yeah, I don't have
35:14
Speaker 2: a great answer to I don't have a good answer
35:16
Speaker 2: on this as to you know, how you actually go
35:19
Speaker 2: about building an enforceable fair policy.
35:25
Speaker 3: And it's just kind of messy.
35:28
Speaker 2: This piece from the Wall Street Journal, the key to
35:30
Speaker 2: an affordable to affordable living is moving in with your sibling.
35:34
Speaker 3: Interesting.
35:36
Speaker 2: What this is talking about is saying, hey, it's becoming
35:38
Speaker 2: harder to rent or buy a home, and so people
35:41
Speaker 2: are living with their siblings. It's predominantly talking about people
35:45
Speaker 2: in their twenties, which I'm not sure how that's different
35:48
Speaker 2: from a I think the term is roommate.
35:51
Speaker 3: I don't really understand why they do this. Grand expose
35:54
Speaker 3: on Grant and Dylan Detchman, who are twenty five. We're
35:58
Speaker 3: twenty five years old and renting an apartment with their
36:00
Speaker 3: twin brother twins. Right, that's not that strange.
36:05
Speaker 2: That's called being twenty five. You know, hey, who do
36:08
Speaker 2: you live with twenty you're twenty five? I don't know
36:10
Speaker 2: a bunch of random people because you're twenty five and
36:13
Speaker 2: don't have enough money anyway.
36:14
Speaker 3: Now, you know. Someone else said that they've noticed an
36:17
Speaker 3: uptick in other areas, which is different. Sherry Campbell, a
36:19
Speaker 3: certified financial planner, noticed a significant, small, but signvid rising
36:23
Speaker 3: clients managing finances while owning a home with a sibling. Mainly,
36:27
Speaker 3: they're talking about women in their fifties who are looking
36:31
Speaker 3: for some sort of support. If going through a divorce,
36:33
Speaker 3: that's different. Sure, that would be a different trend if
36:35
Speaker 3: we started to see that and I could buy that
36:37
Speaker 3: one because of the cost of housing being so utterly
36:40
Speaker 3: insane these days, that you're going through a divorce and
36:42
Speaker 3: there's not enough assets there to split up and still
36:44
Speaker 3: own a home.
36:45
Speaker 2: Sure, yeah, that makes sense. But the story about the
36:48
Speaker 2: twenty five year old twins living together, it's just called
36:52
Speaker 2: being a twenty five year old, right, it's I'll tell
36:56
Speaker 2: you this, there aren't many twenty five year olds that
36:58
Speaker 2: can afford to live on their own, No, at any
37:00
Speaker 2: time in that history. It's just, uh, it's kind of impractical.
37:05
Speaker 3: What else you got? Taylor Swift's final tallly on her
37:09
Speaker 3: eras tour, which I mean, how long did this thing last?
37:12
Speaker 1: Like?
37:13
Speaker 3: Two years? Yeah? Two years era tour twenty one months.
37:17
Speaker 3: She racked up a whopping two billion dollars and change
37:23
Speaker 3: in just ticket sales. Is that good? That is twice
37:27
Speaker 3: the closest record.
37:29
Speaker 2: Now, to be fair, this was a one hundred and
37:32
Speaker 2: forty nine stop tour, so it was also one of
37:35
Speaker 2: the longest that we've seen. But yeah, just monster numbers
37:40
Speaker 2: as far as the overall ticket sales there.
37:42
Speaker 3: I mean she she played Wembley.
37:44
Speaker 2: For eight nights and sold seven hundred and fifty three
37:47
Speaker 2: thousand tickets. That's almost a million people in a single location.
37:51
Speaker 2: I couldn't give away T shirts to a million people
37:55
Speaker 2: in eight days if I tried to, there's cause they'd
37:58
Speaker 2: be bad t shirts. There's nothing that can compare to
38:02
Speaker 2: what the economic effect of this thing has been. Taking
38:05
Speaker 2: a look at markets, the Dow is flat now, the
38:08
Speaker 2: S and p is still down twenty one points, Nasdaq
38:10
Speaker 2: down eighty so tech stocks struggling today as other ones
38:15
Speaker 2: try to hold the line.
38:17
Speaker 3: We're done for the date.
38:18
Speaker 2: We'll see tomorrow on the Financial Exchange