Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / 2023 Crop Tour Day 1

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2023 Crop Tour Day 1 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get started.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: Today is August 7th, and we are on our first day of the crop tour here.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: We got wrapped up.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Corey and Jace with us here today for our 2023 crop tour.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: So what did we see today, Corey, and kind of talk us through where we went.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we started the day off, and we started by going to Sioux County, Iowa.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Next, we went over to Nebraska to Cedar County.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: After that, we made our way through Nebraska towards York County.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: And then we went back into Iowa towards Trennor, Iowa.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: And basically the overall, we just zigzagged back and forth between Iowa and Nebraska.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: And at the end, we made our way down to Missouri.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: And this is where we're going to be staying for the night.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: And we're going to be ready to hit it hard tomorrow morning.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: So tonight, since we wrapped up our Nebraska stops, uh, just a quick couple stops there.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh through the eastern side of Nebraska, kind of western side of Iowa, we can gather up what kind of yield estimate we're going to have for Nebraska.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: So we're going to release that now.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: We came in with like a 178 Nebraska yield, so not quite as high as what some of the other previous people had released.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: And uh when we started looking at Nebraska for the state overall, we realized as we got into northeast Nebraska that most of the dryness and stress was to the south of them.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: That area had been a little bit of a garden spot, just reaching some nice rains here real recently to help them out, just get them along.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: The pivots hadn't been going very long.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: They haven't been stressed too hard for most of the crop year here, which was a surprise compared to the last couple years.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: The last couple years have been pretty rough for their crops, so it's been nice to see a better, more consistent crop through most of Nebraska.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_01: But as we started working south through Nebraska, uh we did see a little bit more variability, I would call it, but it was a little bit deceiving too, don't you guys think, between um seeing a crop that had started off really dry, and now over the last week we've pretty much received two inches of rain all the way across uh you know this eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, all the way up basically.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: So it it was a little bit deceiving based upon it started off dry and now it's getting covered up.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: Things look green pretty much a whole way.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: There wasn't any spot that uh for a large majority of time besides a couple pockets that you saw extreme stress.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: I mean the soybean stress was there like normal on the hills that you see, but nothing for an entire uh large area, huge counties, anything like that that you saw that were just wiped out, kind of like the last few years we've seen.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: So Nebraska for the most part is making a decent recovery.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_01: I I still think that it was a little deceiving based upon we didn't see the yields that we wanted to out of our samples.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_01: So that's maybe why I think we could hold the Nebraska back on yields a little bit more at that 178 than what some of the other people have released, is just based upon what we found in the fields.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: It was a little bit deceiving.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: You drive by, it looks perfect from the road or very close to it, uh very green, ditches are uh uh green, everything looked pretty consistent for the most part, you know, as expected anyways, uh tempered expectations.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: And once you got in the field, it just wasn't quite as good as what maybe I expected.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: And maybe not so much for Nebraska.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think uh their expectations were for a pretty good crop out of Nebraska this year, especially in the northeastern side of the state, where had the they had been uh a little bit more out of the dryness concerns.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: Southern part, we'll see how much that early dryness had held back that crop on their top end.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: And that's gonna be pretty difficult to see here, especially as we fill this crop out later on in the growing season with those nice rains that we talked about uh going forward.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: Really nice forecast, could finish out pretty well.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, so it'll be interesting to watch what that Nebraska corn yield finally does do.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: But for the western part of Iowa, too, I would say that southwestern Iowa, it's always a little bit deceiving.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: It always looks pretty decent for the most part that we found.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: Last year stumped us a little bit on the yield there, uh, a little bit worse than what our expectations were with the way it finished out.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see if uh this year could maybe do a little bit better than what we saw for results last year after some disease problems and whatnot.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm uh looking forward to seeing what our uh Nebraska yield can do here this year, and then seeing what the western half of Iowa uh can really finish out with here too.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: And for Iowa, Sioux County, and then uh kind of the western side of the state, I I have no real problem with anywhere in the western side of the state for the most part.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: It's a big improvement for northwest Iowa, especially compared to last year.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: But uh I have no real concerns, no real problems.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: It it's maybe not the record or anything to really brag about for a lot of the areas, but uh no real major signs of stress, inconsistency, anything like that.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: So the western part of Iowa is isn't gonna be the problem.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_01: I still think it's the eastern side of the state.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um is it gonna make up for the eastern side of the state?
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: That part we obviously don't know yet.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: We'll experience that more on day four and five.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: But I would say uh at this point it it might be really difficult for the western side of the state to completely blow it out of the water to try to offset the east just before kind of diving into it.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see what the next couple days bring us.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: But uh, we're excited to have this journey once again this year, another uh four just shy of 500 miles today, and uh we'll come up and see you guys tomorrow as we travel through uh kind of Missouri east towards uh more of the I states here as we get towards hopefully some better and better corn.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, guys, and thank you to all our listeners.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: Please reach out to us at professionaleggmarketing.com.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_01: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Egg Marketing.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: It's released every Friday.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: See you next time.