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Cliff Notes: THE NEXT BEAR MARKET · Earn Your Leisure

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  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
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  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
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  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
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  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
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  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
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  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
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  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
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  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
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  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
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  Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly
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  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
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  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
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  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: This is something that I've always been concerned about. Bear
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  Speaker 3: markets usually and correct me if I'm wrong. Usually last
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  Speaker 3: I mean bull markets usually last seven years, and then
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  Speaker 3: bear markets last like eighteen months on average, I believe
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  Speaker 3: around that time. So we were in a twelve year
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  Speaker 3: bull market, which, like you said, like the longest in history,
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  Speaker 3: and then we had the shortest bear market in history
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  Speaker 3: last year, which is only a few months. And now
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  Speaker 3: we're back in a bull market. So obviously that was
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  Speaker 3: a lot due to the government just printing money at
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  Speaker 3: unprecedented rate and pumped a lot of money into the economy,
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  Speaker 3: which made us go back into it helped us go
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  Speaker 3: back into a bull market. But it's one of these
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  Speaker 3: things where at some point in my brain we have
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  Speaker 3: to go back into a prolonged bear market, or is
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  Speaker 3: that no longer the case where it's like, okay, bear
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  Speaker 3: markets might not happen anymore like how they used to happen.
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  Speaker 2: Great question. Our good buddy, My good buddy.
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  Speaker 4: JC Peretz likes to say, there's always a bear market somewhere.
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  Speaker 4: So we're in if you look around the market, and
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  Speaker 4: it's a global market, and it's a market of stocks. Right,
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  Speaker 4: there's the stock market, but we always talk about the Dow,
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  Speaker 4: the SMP, the Russell, but then there's the global market
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  Speaker 4: of stocks. And if you look around the Hangsang fell
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  Speaker 4: ten percent last week. That's a technical correction. You look
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  Speaker 4: at the MEME stocks, AMC and game Stop, even though
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  Speaker 4: they're up whatever fourteen hundred, twelve hundred percent, they're down
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  Speaker 4: forty five fifty percent from their highs. Crypto is in
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  Speaker 4: a technical bear market. There's always a bear market happening.
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  Speaker 4: It just depends on the asset class you're looking at
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  Speaker 4: or where you're looking around the world.
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  Speaker 2: So there's that.
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  Speaker 4: Are we going to have a bear market in the
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  Speaker 4: United States and the S and P five hundred of
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  Speaker 4: the Dow, Yeah, we are going to have one. The
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  Speaker 4: fact is, though, and you mentioned it, that was the
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  Speaker 4: cutest little bear market in history.
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  Speaker 2: It hurt that thirty five percent oft, but it was cute.
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  Speaker 4: It lasted five minutes. Right again, we had the support.
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  Speaker 4: But there's also this, and this is important. There are
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  Speaker 4: so many passive investors in the stock market right now,
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  Speaker 4: passively investing through their four to oh one K, through
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  Speaker 4: their roth IRA, through their own brokerage accounts. They're just
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  Speaker 4: setting in forgetting it through the robo advisors. There's just
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  Speaker 4: a ton of money sitting there in the vanguards and
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  Speaker 4: the Fidelity index funds of the world. Right It's heavy.
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  Speaker 4: It's like a big heavy ship. It takes a lot
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  Speaker 4: to move that whole ship down and get passive investors
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  Speaker 4: to sell. Everybody's got a threshold, but for passive investors,
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  Speaker 4: this household across the United States and across the world
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  Speaker 4: sitting on all of this stock income, people have a
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  Speaker 4: very deep threshold before they're ready to.
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  Speaker 2: Throw in their hands. So we'll get a bear market.
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  Speaker 4: It may come soon, right this is the worst two
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  Speaker 4: months of the stock market right now, August and September.
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  Speaker 2: We may get a correction here.
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  Speaker 4: We may fall into a bear I doubt it, But
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  Speaker 4: in general, I just think the market is so heavy
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  Speaker 4: that we're going to get these things, but they're not
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  Speaker 4: going to last long. And the government now has this
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  Speaker 4: moral hazard where they're just not letting things fall that far.
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  Speaker 4: They're not letting the capital markets fall apart because they
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  Speaker 4: don't want a two thousand and eight two thousand and
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  Speaker 4: nine situation again.
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  Speaker 5: And if they did that, I think in twenty twenty last.
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  Speaker 2: Year, we were crashed.
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  Speaker 5: Through the fifty percent of the doubt. And what people
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  Speaker 5: are not remembering in nineteen seventy nineteen eighty, there wasn't
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  Speaker 5: as much quantitative easing, but as you mentioned, Caleb, the
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  Speaker 5: amount of people that are buying automatically, and then the
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  Speaker 5: preaching of index funds was not present those two factors,
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  Speaker 5: Like nineteen twenty nine, everyone was not automatically invested into
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  Speaker 5: four one case or mutual fund plan, so those levers
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  Speaker 5: are dramatically different. And then but the quantitative easing thing,
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  Speaker 5: because I know, for Shot is a pessimist like Rashat
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  Speaker 5: would make me prove your case to him, and the
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  Speaker 5: thing is like we the quantitative easing part is tough
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  Speaker 5: because now you're building a house of cards. But they,
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  Speaker 5: as Cayler mentioned, you can't stop the quantitative easing because
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  Speaker 5: if we do in the floor falls underneath it, it'll
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  Speaker 5: be disastrous for many industries, many people, and many jobs
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  Speaker 5: will go away. So now it's this thing that you
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  Speaker 5: have to kind of keep in place and probably for
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  Speaker 5: the next twenty something years that would have to be
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  Speaker 5: in place until we reach your point in a return.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Caleb.
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  Speaker 6: Obviously at Vesikipedia is almost I mean it is a
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  Speaker 6: search engine for anybody really trying to learn about investing.
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  Speaker 6: I'm wondering what you do, right because as you see
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  Speaker 6: these the people's searching words and what type of analytics.
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  Speaker 7: all you need?
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  Speaker 2: You're using?
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  Speaker 6: And what are you seeing with those analytics? Right? Somebody
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  Speaker 6: typing in means socks? All right, this must be something
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  Speaker 6: that's going on or you hear fear and you hear
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  Speaker 6: you might see shyy typing in? What's a big market?
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  Speaker 6: What's the long What are you doing with these analytics?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah? Great question.
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  Speaker 4: And because we have a lot of people who are
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  Speaker 4: doing this twenty three odd million visitors a month, three
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  Speaker 4: million page US a day on the on order, uh,
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  Speaker 4: sometimes more, we're seeing what the questions are that people
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  Speaker 4: are asking, and in that you see their intention, not
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  Speaker 4: in a creepy way like we're seeing what you might
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  Speaker 4: see in a Google trend surch What we're seeing at
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  Speaker 4: a very what we call a taxonomy level. So we
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  Speaker 4: have our taxes, are investing taxes in our trading taxes.
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  Speaker 4: We're seeing what people are specifically looking at, and sometimes
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  Speaker 4: that is as broad and one of the more popular
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  Speaker 4: questions on the website, believe it or not, is what
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  Speaker 4: is money? I think that is people literally wondering what
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  Speaker 4: is this thing we call money? And I also think
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  Speaker 4: it's people thinking about a crypto world, like what is
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  Speaker 4: money metaphysically? So we have that, but we also have
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  Speaker 4: people asking very point of questions like how do I
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  Speaker 4: start investing with ten thousand dollars or roth ira or
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  Speaker 4: four oh one k or tdum error trade or a
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  Speaker 4: robinhood which brokers better? Or how do I buy swaps?
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  Speaker 4: Or how do I buy warrants? Or what's a spect
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  Speaker 4: So when you get all of that, you know where
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  Speaker 4: the interest is, but you also know what people are
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  Speaker 4: sort of fearing or what they're optimistic about. So when
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  Speaker 4: people are searching what is volatility, what is the VIX?
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  Speaker 4: What is a bear market? How much could I lose?
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  Speaker 4: What is a you know when you see those fear
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  Speaker 4: based terms, We've created an anxiety index, which actually peaks
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  Speaker 4: before the VIX index, because we see what you're searching
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  Speaker 4: for and think about it. When you get scared and
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: you want to learn something, You're like, what is a this?
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  Speaker 4: Before I do this? We know what the what is
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  Speaker 4: this part of that is? And we're seeing those spikes
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  Speaker 4: in fear and anxiety before they appear in the stock market,
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  Speaker 4: through the VIX, through the options market, and into the
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  Speaker 4: stock market. It's fascinating, but it also makes us go,
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: we better update that article because something big just happened.
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  Speaker 2: We had the reverse stock split with GE today.
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  Speaker 4: All of a sudden, I'm looking at Google Analytics on
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: our website and reverse stock splits spiking like a rocket ship,
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: and I'm like, what happened? I go and I find
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: the reverse stocks with with G, put that anecdote in
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  Speaker 4: the in the into the story and move on. So
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: we have to update our content to make sure that
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  Speaker 4: we're we're not chasing the news. We're just trying to
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  Speaker 4: be relevant around it. And because we have so many terms,
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  Speaker 4: we're doing this at scale by the thousands every week.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, that was that was my search engine on the
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  Speaker 6: warrant call I hit ian up and we would like
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  Speaker 6: to studying that together.
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  Speaker 3: Let's let's let's let's ask about a couple of questions
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  Speaker 3: if we can about some terms, because we very rarely
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: get a chance to do this, especially with somebody who
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  Speaker 3: does it for a living. So you talked about reverse
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  Speaker 3: stock split. A lot of people might not be familiar
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  Speaker 3: with what a reverse stock split is. What is the
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  Speaker 3: reverse stock split?
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  Speaker 4: Well, a company that issues a public company that issues
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  Speaker 4: shares may decide to split their shares traditionally. So if
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  Speaker 4: they had a thousand, or let's just say a million
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  Speaker 4: shares outstanding, they split their shares. Now they have two million,
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  Speaker 4: but at half the price, or reverse splits the other way,
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  Speaker 4: or you're splitting down from you know, you're reducing the
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: amount of shares you have on the market. We're making
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  Speaker 4: each share worth more. So if you had a million
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  Speaker 4: shares and you reverse split two for one, now you
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: have five hundred thousand shares, but those each individual shares
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  Speaker 4: worth twice that. So it's just a way of either
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: raising the value of the individual share through a reverse split,
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: or creating more shares outstanding to make more shares available
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: to the public markets if you're doing a traditional split.
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  Speaker 4: So there's a difference, but it really is what the
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: company is trying to do with its share base, and
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: companies will often split their shares to make more shares
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: available outstanding so that more people can buy. And you
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: saw some of this happening with some of the memest
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: but then you have companies that will never ever split,
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  Speaker 4: like a Berkshire Hathaway. That's why the stock price for
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares is two.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: Hundred and sixty or whatever thousand dollars apiece.
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: My graduates from my school being forced bad drop bag
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: drop Mike, drop bag drop drop.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christin Noman, the United States
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal order
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Do what's right, leave now. Under President Trump America's laws,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,