Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Super Tuesdays - Corruption Is Now A Top Voting Issue: That’s Bad News For Trump & Republicans
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: 14 days away from the 2026 midterm elections.
- 0:10Speaker 2: He is Chuck Todd. I am Chris Lizzie. You are listening,
- 0:13Speaker 2: watching Super Tuesdays. Like, subscribe, comment on all your podcast platforms.
- 0:19Speaker 3: Chuck, we're almost there, man. You know, it's going to
- 0:24Speaker 3: be a long week. How are you feeling? How's your health?
- 0:25Speaker 3: How's your mental health? How's your physical health? Yeah, it's
- 0:27Speaker 3: pretty good. I tell you, though, I got to go
- 0:30Speaker 3: get my flu shot. I'm like paranoid about that. It's
- 0:33Speaker 3: like the one thing I have been traveling on a bunch.
- 0:37Speaker 3: I was like, you got to get that flu shot.
- 0:39Speaker 3: What does it takes about? Three days to take, I think.
- 0:42Speaker 2: Do you do the, do you, Chuck and I are
- 0:44Speaker 2: of an age at this point, let's just leave it
- 0:46Speaker 2: at that, that like, do you do the pneumonia and
- 0:49Speaker 2: like the RSV shot too?
- 0:50Speaker 3: I haven't done those, but I'm 50 just this year.
- 0:54Speaker 3: Not to my knowledge. Okay. I don't do any of
- 0:57Speaker 3: the extra. Don't screw up the shing, with the laying
- 1:00Speaker 3: that shingles back. You do the shingle shot. Cause shingles
- 1:03Speaker 3: is a night. Shingles is, shingles is like adult chicken pox, right?
- 1:08Speaker 3: So yes. So the person I, You haven't had it,
- 1:12Speaker 3: have you? I've never had it, but... Okay, I've heard
- 1:14Speaker 3: it's terrible. But, look, I had a colleague about 15
- 1:18Speaker 3: years ago who got it. And it just, it took
- 1:21Speaker 3: him down, man. It took him down. And it was... Yeah,
- 1:24Speaker 3: I got to do that. You know what?
- 1:26Speaker 2: I'm going to take a note that I need to
- 1:27Speaker 2: get my flu and shingles shot. Can I get that at, like,
- 1:29Speaker 2: CBS or wherever? This is, I'm sure, what people tuned
- 1:32Speaker 2: in for.
- 1:32Speaker 3: Exactly. You know, I'm not 100% on the shingles. I mean,
- 1:36Speaker 3: I just... I'll be honest, like... One time I got
- 1:41Speaker 3: a shot at CBS and boy, was my arm sore
- 1:44Speaker 3: for a couple of weeks. Boy, is my arm tired.
- 1:47Speaker 3: When I go to my doctor. The actual doctor. I
- 1:49Speaker 3: have that issue. I love my friends at CBS. Don't
- 1:52Speaker 3: get me wrong. Yeah, I'll probably just.
- 1:54Speaker 2: Well, my doctor is like two minutes from me, so
- 1:56Speaker 2: I just need to be not lazy. Hey, before we
- 1:59Speaker 2: get into the meat of this, I want to shout
- 2:01Speaker 2: out a sad shout out. But our friend Ann Hornaday,
- 2:05Speaker 2: the longtime film critic at The Washington Post, passed away
- 2:08Speaker 2: far too early. on Monday or Sunday from glioblastoma, which,
- 2:13Speaker 2: you know, Chuck and I were texting about, you know, look,
- 2:16Speaker 2: just among politicians, John McCain, Beau Biden, uh, and, uh,
- 2:21Speaker 2: Teddy Kennedy, all died of glioblastoma and, uh, Was 66
- 2:26Speaker 2: years old, like Chuck and I are regular on the
- 2:28Speaker 2: Tony Kornheiser podcast.
- 2:30Speaker 3: Just awful. I didn't know she was sick. I guess
- 2:32Speaker 3: she went into hospice last week. Yeah. But just a
- 2:36Speaker 3: really good, kind person. And it moves really, really fast.
- 2:40Speaker 3: And 66 is way too early. Yeah. No, I she
- 2:46Speaker 3: was a guest in my podcast. We we'd done when
- 2:49Speaker 3: I would be promoting the various documentary film festivals in D.C.
- 2:53Speaker 3: She was always a big part of them. As well,
- 2:57Speaker 3: I've done a lot of Q & As for him.
- 2:58Speaker 3: She'd do, of course, a ton of Q & As.
- 3:05Speaker 3: That is the worst. I had a neighbor. He went
- 3:08Speaker 3: from mowing the lawn- to death in like four weeks.
- 3:12Speaker 3: I mean, it's just, you know. It moves very, very quickly.
- 3:15Speaker 3: The minute there's a symptom, it's already too late. I
- 3:18Speaker 3: said it's the pancreatic cancer of brain cancer in that
- 3:21Speaker 3: they usually find it too late. We're doing better on
- 3:25Speaker 3: pancreatic cancer. Pancreatic cancer. I know. I saw that. Well,
- 3:28Speaker 3: let's hope, man. But it's just sad. She's great, hilarious,
- 3:33Speaker 3: good writer, good talker. Anyway, if you have not read
- 3:36Speaker 3: the obit in the Washington Post, you should. All right.
- 3:39Speaker 3: Let's talk about what people want to hear from us on. So, Chuck,
- 3:43Speaker 3: 14 days out, Trump is in the midst.
- 3:47Speaker 2: He started on Monday night in Wichita, Kansas, which says something.
- 3:52Speaker 2: But I believe he's now doing, they've added two Texas stops. So,
- 3:57Speaker 2: it was seven states in seven days. I think he's
- 4:00Speaker 2: now in eight days doing nine stops.
- 4:02Speaker 3: But he's going to South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Michigan.
- 4:12Speaker 3: As I said, he was in Kansas. Is this.
- 4:16Speaker 2: Is Donald Trump out there stumping in these states a good,
- 4:21Speaker 2: a bad or a neutral thing for the Republicans in
- 4:25Speaker 2: these states? Because we can you know, I'm interested where
- 4:28Speaker 2: you land on that, because we know. Look, let me
- 4:30Speaker 2: just say we know why he's doing it. He's for
- 4:32Speaker 2: two reasons. One, he loves spotlight, too. They're trying to
- 4:35Speaker 2: rally the Republican base. Right. Which is being somewhat unenthusiastic.
- 4:39Speaker 2: But there's another side to it. Where do you land on?
- 4:41Speaker 3: Like, is this net positive, net neutral or net negative?
- 4:46Speaker 3: I think it's more net negative than net positive, but
- 4:48Speaker 3: I understand the strategy, right? Yeah. Midterm election is about
- 4:51Speaker 3: base turnout. We know this is about base turnout. And
- 4:54Speaker 3: I look at it– his schedule looks more like triage
- 4:57Speaker 3: to me, right? It is a little bit like a
- 5:00Speaker 3: mash unit. Let's just– all right, Kansas. Let's see what
- 5:04Speaker 3: can be done there. Obviously, Texas. And look, there are certain–
- 5:11Speaker 3: I would argue that Texas is probably the be-all, end-all
- 5:15Speaker 3: if you're really looking at what I'm starting to think,
- 5:19Speaker 3: especially if Collins pulls off, is able to hold on.
- 5:22Speaker 3: Texas might be the majority. The pivot, yeah. Could be
- 5:27Speaker 3: the tipping point state on that front. I mean, I
- 5:30Speaker 3: view Kansas as sort of the fifth or sixth seat, right?
- 5:34Speaker 2: Certainly, I think Kansas goes after Texas. It's just a
- 5:37Speaker 2: very heavy left.
- 5:39Speaker 3: It does. But I'm not sure– I think the– I
- 5:48Speaker 3: saw Marshall performing at the rally. It's just– put it
- 5:53Speaker 3: this way. If you're Adam Hamilton, you're just fine with it.
- 5:58Speaker 3: It doesn't make you nervous. It reinforces certainly your closing
- 6:02Speaker 3: argument if you want to be a bit more independent, right?
- 6:06Speaker 3: Who's the senator serving that sort of– business. So I
- 6:09Speaker 3: think for the most part, it's a net negative. I
- 6:13Speaker 3: understand the strategy in it. I could see that it
- 6:16Speaker 3: could have some benefits. But I keep coming back to
- 6:21Speaker 3: this uncomfortable truth from 2024. If Donald Trump is so
- 6:26Speaker 3: helpful at winning Senate seats, then why did Democrats win
- 6:30Speaker 3: Senate seats in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin? I totally agree.
- 6:35Speaker 3: It is the data point that sort of actually makes
- 6:41Speaker 3: the case that maybe, huh, I don't know if he
- 6:45Speaker 3: brings a benefit. His voters haven't voted for Republican Senate
- 6:48Speaker 3: candidates before. Why do they think it's going to be
- 6:50Speaker 3: different this time?
- 6:52Speaker 2: It's so funny you mention that because I still remember
- 6:55Speaker 2: after 2024, like right after a couple of days, a
- 6:57Speaker 2: day after night of I was like, you know, they
- 7:01Speaker 2: call Michigan for Trump. And then Slotkin Rogers is super close.
- 7:06Speaker 2: And I just I may have said this to you.
- 7:08Speaker 3: Not publicly, but like, well, I mean, I just assume
- 7:11Speaker 3: Rogers will win because Trump has won Michigan by two
- 7:14Speaker 3: or three. Like, how the hell do you very rare
- 7:17Speaker 3: just for people to very rarely does that happen?
- 7:20Speaker 1: Right.
- 7:20Speaker 3: The president went nowadays. The president wins and then slot
- 7:24Speaker 3: can want. And I was like, wait, what? I mean,
- 7:25Speaker 3: I do think that is useful because it's also not
- 7:27Speaker 3: a ball. It's not a cop from 25 years ago.
- 7:29Speaker 2: Right.
- 7:32Speaker 3: I mean, like it's a recent.
- 7:34Speaker 1: It is.
- 7:34Speaker 3: He does. They, you know, I call them shotgun Trump voters.
- 7:37Speaker 3: I do think there are people that care about him,
- 7:40Speaker 3: but they only care about him. I mean, they're in
- 7:42Speaker 3: some ways they're, they're, they truly are him, right? He
- 7:46Speaker 3: only cares about himself. Well, there are voters that only
- 7:48Speaker 3: care about Trump and don't really care about the rest
- 7:51Speaker 3: of the Republican party. And that, you know, that slice
- 7:54Speaker 3: of voter is, is who they need to show up.
- 7:57Speaker 3: But the other part of it is, And look, it's
- 8:00Speaker 3: all anecdotal, but I will tell you the importance of
- 8:05Speaker 3: corruption popping now as the number two issue, number three issue,
- 8:11Speaker 3: and you're starting to hear it circulate. Let me tell
- 8:13Speaker 3: you why that should scare the bejesus out of Republicans.
- 8:19Speaker 3: So for instance, and this is an anecdote, but I
- 8:21Speaker 3: had somebody come up to me at the airport on
- 8:23Speaker 3: Monday and say to me, tell me. Look, I'm a conservative.
- 8:28Speaker 3: Told me the county they were from in Texas. I've
- 8:32Speaker 3: never voted for Democrats, all this stuff. And he goes,
- 8:35Speaker 3: I just think the party needs a reboot and they're
- 8:38Speaker 3: not going to listen until they listen. And I was like, interesting.
- 8:42Speaker 3: That is interesting. Look, it's an anecdote. Of course. It's
- 8:47Speaker 3: one person.
- 8:48Speaker 2: But the polling suggests it is rising as an issue.
- 8:52Speaker 3: So, for instance, you're a voter. You're conservative. But you're
- 8:57Speaker 3: you don't like what you're seeing with Trump corruption. If
- 9:03Speaker 3: your rationale for voting against Republicans is corruption, that is
- 9:08Speaker 3: a way to say, hey, look, I'm still a conservative.
- 9:11Speaker 3: I'm still you know, I don't really want this Democratic
- 9:15Speaker 3: governance anymore. But the only way I'm going to get
- 9:18Speaker 3: a conservative party that's trustworthy again or that I feel
- 9:21Speaker 3: comfortable with is essentially to punish him now, which is
- 9:25Speaker 3: what midterm– what is it? Do you need 3% of
- 9:30Speaker 3: the vote that does that? If you're on the Democratic side, 5%
- 9:33Speaker 3: of the vote. And they don't all vote Democratic. Some
- 9:38Speaker 3: of them may vote Libertarian. Some of them may skip races. Yeah.
- 9:43Speaker 3: This is why the corruption message, I think, is so
- 9:46Speaker 3: dangerous for Republican incumbents, because corruption is an easier permission
- 9:51Speaker 3: slip to vote against the party than admitting you were
- 9:57Speaker 3: wrong the whole time. And that's always been our thing.
- 9:59Speaker 3: is like it's very hard if you've been waiting in
- 10:01Speaker 3: a line for 10 years it's hard to get out
- 10:03Speaker 3: of the line right you got a lot of sunk
- 10:05Speaker 3: cost and waiting in line republic many republican based voters
- 10:09Speaker 3: yeah look you know i was for the policies he
- 10:12Speaker 3: was talking about totally i wasn't for this corruption yep
- 10:15Speaker 3: and it's gotten in the way of what i want
- 10:18Speaker 3: um I'm not going to change who I am. He changed.
- 10:21Speaker 2: Right.
- 10:22Speaker 1: It is.
- 10:22Speaker 3: Look, we all go through you go through various sort
- 10:26Speaker 3: of stages on this stuff. And I just think corruption,
- 10:33Speaker 3: if you're a Republican operative, you should be having panic
- 10:36Speaker 3: attacks that corruption is now. popping as sort of the...
- 10:41Speaker 3: We know it's not the top issue, but it's the
- 10:43Speaker 3: rationalizing issue. And then there's this. And that's why I'm out.
- 10:47Speaker 3: It's the quota. We....
- 10:54Speaker 2: I think since we've been doing this, we've been talking about–
- 10:57Speaker 2: certainly since 2025, we said, what is 2026?
- 11:01Speaker 3: What's the best comparison?
- 11:03Speaker 2: When you were talking, I was just thinking– we've mentioned
- 11:05Speaker 2: this before, but think about 06.
- 11:09Speaker 3: We knew 06 was going to be a bad-ish election
- 11:12Speaker 3: for Republicans, but September 2006, the Mark Foley-Page scandal breaks,
- 11:18Speaker 3: and it's like– it's the– Whatever the opposite of the
- 11:22Speaker 3: cherry on top is. You know, a cherry on top
- 11:24Speaker 3: is good. You know, the bad cherry on top. It's not.
- 11:27Speaker 3: The hot sauce on the sundae. Correct.
- 11:30Speaker 2: Exactly.
- 11:30Speaker 3: Yeah. Like put the mayonnaise on top. Whatever you want
- 11:33Speaker 3: to pick.
- 11:34Speaker 2: Like.
- 11:34Speaker 1: I know.
- 11:34Speaker 3: Mayonnaise is good on anything. It's kind of bad.
- 11:38Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 11:38Speaker 3: Mayonnaise is good on anything. No.
- 11:39Speaker 2: See, that's where we differ. That's why we can't run
- 11:42Speaker 2: for president. Because I hate mayonnaise and you love mayonnaise.
- 11:45Speaker 2: It's just not going to work for us.
- 11:47Speaker 3: I may or may not have been raised on peanut
- 11:49Speaker 3: butter and mayonnaise sandwiches. Oh, my. I just heard someone
- 11:53Speaker 3: loves peanut butter, mayonnaise, and tomato sandwiches. And I was like,
- 11:58Speaker 3: that sounds more disgusting than anything I've ever had. But
- 12:01Speaker 3: you had peanut butter and mayonnaise? Oh, yeah, man.
- 12:05Speaker 2: Oh, yeah.
- 12:05Speaker 3: Florida's a whole different place, folks. I mean, let's be honest. But,
- 12:09Speaker 3: I mean, that's the deal, right? It's like, it's the.
- 12:13Speaker 2: the the push it's either the push over the edge
- 12:16Speaker 2: that voters need or and i think you're you're more
- 12:19Speaker 2: right is the permission slip to.
- 12:23Speaker 3: Vote it's like look i just we we gotta reboot
- 12:27Speaker 3: we gotta like the guy said we gotta reboot we
- 12:29Speaker 3: gotta reset we gotta you know like real conservative with
- 12:33Speaker 3: me i agreed with this guy i mean because i
- 12:35Speaker 3: believe this and you know it's like you know, um,
- 12:38Speaker 3: I could argue the democratic party needs a reboot. Yeah,
- 12:41Speaker 3: I totally agree. Um, I think a lot of democratic
- 12:43Speaker 3: party voters would agree with that. Right. And, and which
- 12:46Speaker 3: is why you have so many candidates running away from
- 12:49Speaker 3: the party. Yeah. Um, and have it looking like they're
- 12:52Speaker 3: having some success doing that, at least if you're in
- 12:54Speaker 3: a Kansas or in Iowa. Um, but yeah, it's, it's, that's,
- 13:00Speaker 3: and then, you know, I mean, Trump is almost, you know, he's, he's, uh,
- 13:06Speaker 3: He's just such a cliche about some things, right? I mean,
- 13:10Speaker 3: the obsession of the golf course. Really? Right now. East Potomac.
- 13:14Speaker 3: Just what everybody cares about. Yeah. I mean, we're really–
- 13:16Speaker 3: we're two weeks in a day when he was doing
- 13:18Speaker 3: it and he's just obsessing over a golf course. Yeah. It's–
- 13:22Speaker 3: The golf course is the new ballroom. Do you know
- 13:26Speaker 3: what I mean? To your point, we love ad impact.
- 13:30Speaker 2: I wasn't actually thinking of this, but I just pulled
- 13:32Speaker 2: it up while you were talking because I think this
- 13:34Speaker 2: is really interesting.
- 13:35Speaker 3: Ad impact tracks what's out there. Chuck, look at this.
- 13:39Speaker 2: This is weekly broadcast airings.
- 13:41Speaker 3: So TV ads mentioning President Trump. Look at....
- 13:46Speaker 2: So, you know, August 8-2 to 8-16 is kind of
- 13:49Speaker 2: the end, really, effectively, of the primary season. So, the
- 13:52Speaker 2: red line is Republican ads mentioning Donald Trump. The blue
- 13:55Speaker 2: line is Democratic ads mentioning Donald Trump. I mean, literally,
- 13:58Speaker 2: as soon as primary season ends, it collapses for Republicans.
- 14:01Speaker 3: Like, look at that.
- 14:02Speaker 2: I mean, if you need any, and if you can't see,
- 14:05Speaker 2: it says, in May, President Trump was mentioned 47% of
- 14:08Speaker 2: GOP broadcast ad airings. So far in October, that figure
- 14:11Speaker 2: has fallen to just 1%. So, I mean, to me,
- 14:16Speaker 2: it's like you need to understand you need to understand
- 14:18Speaker 2: about Donald Trump in the election and to our start
- 14:20Speaker 2: where we started. Is he a good thing or a
- 14:22Speaker 2: bad thing? Look at what they're talking about or not
- 14:25Speaker 2: talking about.
- 14:26Speaker 3: Right. Like, right. It's pretty remarkable. I saw that chart.
- 14:29Speaker 3: I was like, yeah, it's like pretty telling. Democrats will
- 14:33Speaker 3: pay for his for his travel schedule.
- 14:35Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 14:37Speaker 2: We don't talk about this that much, but Trump has
- 14:40Speaker 2: talked about it more and more, and I just want
- 14:41Speaker 2: to raise it.
- 14:42Speaker 3: I'm not sure we can answer it, but before he
- 14:46Speaker 3: flew to Kansas on Monday, he was asked about the
- 14:49Speaker 3: polling that shows Republicans losing, and he says, well, it's
- 14:51Speaker 3: all rigged.
- 14:55Speaker 2: It's the question I get more than any other. I'm
- 14:57Speaker 2: assuming it's probably the question you get more than any other, too,
- 14:59Speaker 2: which is, How concerned are you? We kind of know
- 15:04Speaker 2: that this should be a good election for Democrats based
- 15:07Speaker 2: on all the atmospherics. But how concerned are you about
- 15:12Speaker 2: what Trump will say and more importantly, will do, if anything?
- 15:18Speaker 3: Post election.
- 15:19Speaker 2: And by that, I mean, any time after the ballot, the, the,
- 15:22Speaker 2: the election, you know, they, they.
- 15:24Speaker 3: Close the polls. Let's create the two categories. There's what
- 15:27Speaker 3: he says. Yes. One very dangerous, one less dangerous. Right.
- 15:31Speaker 3: We know what he's going to say. We already know
- 15:33Speaker 3: what he's going to say.
- 15:34Speaker 2: Yes.
- 15:34Speaker 3: You know, they, they, you know, he's going to talk
- 15:37Speaker 3: about 2020, right. He can't stop talking about 2020. Nope.
- 15:40Speaker 3: You know, so it's, it, he's going to say all
- 15:42Speaker 3: sorts of things. Um, The question is, is he willing
- 15:47Speaker 3: to do something about it? Donald Trump is not going
- 15:51Speaker 3: to lift– if Donald Trump didn't have the guts to
- 15:55Speaker 3: finish the job on January 6th, just remember, he didn't–
- 15:59Speaker 3: I've always said the question he's never been asked and
- 16:02Speaker 3: that he has yet to respond to is why did
- 16:03Speaker 3: you choke? Why did you fail to fire the attorney general?
- 16:06Speaker 3: Why did you fail to fire the defense secretary? You
- 16:09Speaker 3: could have done all these things and you chose not
- 16:11Speaker 3: to and it was for himself. So why do you
- 16:14Speaker 3: think he's going to do this on behalf of somebody else?
- 16:17Speaker 3: So I, I, that's, it's not as if I don't
- 16:21Speaker 3: think there's a danger. I'm not going to sit here
- 16:23Speaker 3: and say that we're somehow in this incredibly, but I'm
- 16:26Speaker 3: saying is that he is not going to go and, um,
- 16:32Speaker 3: out on a limb for somebody else's election. And he's,
- 16:36Speaker 3: you know, he looked what he was willing to do
- 16:38Speaker 3: for himself, but even there, there were certain things that
- 16:41Speaker 3: have the guts to do. Um, I do think the
- 16:44Speaker 3: closer the election is, the more concerned I would be
- 16:48Speaker 3: about shenanigans and about attempts to mess around with things.
- 16:54Speaker 3: But I don't– I think he's more likely to rhetorically
- 17:00Speaker 3: obviously create all sorts of bad– certainly– I don't want
- 17:06Speaker 3: to minimize that rhetoric doesn't do damage. No, it absolutely does.
- 17:10Speaker 3: It does. But it is dangerous, but less dangerous than
- 17:13Speaker 3: him acting.
- 17:15Speaker 2: Acting.
- 17:15Speaker 3: Right. The question is, is he willing to to commit
- 17:17Speaker 3: an act? And I think it look, he they haven't
- 17:23Speaker 3: done the pre-election work to make their acts feasible. So
- 17:28Speaker 3: that's why I'm also less good. They just haven't done.
- 17:31Speaker 3: You know, you haven't. You know, there's talk about some
- 17:35Speaker 3: of the things that they could do, but they've not
- 17:37Speaker 3: actually started to do those things. So I'm I'm I
- 17:43Speaker 3: am I continue to say I'm vigilant. I'm not an alarmist.
- 17:47Speaker 3: And I think that's and it's continue to be where
- 17:50Speaker 3: where my head is. That's exactly where I am.
- 17:52Speaker 2: I always say to people, Donald Trump's fundamental selfishness is
- 17:58Speaker 2: the reason that I'm. Sanguine is not the right word,
- 18:02Speaker 2: but not alarm. Because to your point, we've talked about
- 18:05Speaker 2: this so many times. He doesn't really care about anything
- 18:09Speaker 2: other than himself.
- 18:10Speaker 3: He's too lazy to be the worst version that some
- 18:16Speaker 3: people think he's capable of being.
- 18:18Speaker 2: It's just he just he cares about himself. And, yeah,
- 18:21Speaker 2: this election matters to matters about him sort of. But
- 18:24Speaker 2: it's not his name on the ballot. Like he's just
- 18:27Speaker 2: rely on his fundamental selfishness. Well, just to overwhelm everything.
- 18:32Speaker 2: Look what we went through last week. Right.
- 18:34Speaker 3: He's going to vacillate between. The system is rigged. Democrats
- 18:39Speaker 3: rigged in this. Yes. To John Thune sucks. He didn't
- 18:42Speaker 3: pass the SAVE Act. Yes. Karl Rove. They should have
- 18:47Speaker 3: listened to me more. Right. You know, John. Yes. You know,
- 18:50Speaker 3: they hate the Republican Party. They love me. You know,
- 18:53Speaker 3: why is it when I'm on the ballot, the party
- 18:55Speaker 3: does well. When I'm not, they don't. Right. So, you know,
- 18:58Speaker 3: he's going to self-soothe, which will be a combination of
- 19:01Speaker 3: blaming other people in the party, you know, You know,
- 19:05Speaker 3: he'll blame his consultants if he has to. Sure. He'll
- 19:08Speaker 3: throw anybody else on. You know, it is never going
- 19:11Speaker 3: to be him. It is never going to be. That
- 19:13Speaker 3: is the prediction. We both. You can take that 100
- 19:16Speaker 3: percent to the bank. Right. Every rational person in the
- 19:19Speaker 3: Republican Party knows exactly why they're in the situation. Yeah.
- 19:23Speaker 3: And it's all due to decisions Donald Trump made and
- 19:26Speaker 3: what he does and says on a given day. Yeah.
- 19:28Speaker 3: That is why the Republican Party is on the brink here.
- 19:32Speaker 3: It's all because of him. So. Yeah. I mean, I
- 19:36Speaker 3: guess at this point, well, you dug the hole. You
- 19:39Speaker 3: get us out of the hole.
- 19:40Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 19:40Speaker 3: Right. So sure. Rally. Try it. If you've got a
- 19:43Speaker 3: theory of the case, let's see it. And, of course,
- 19:55Speaker 3: his theory of.
- 19:56Speaker 2: The case in Kansas on Monday night at least partly
- 20:00Speaker 2: included his retelling for the thousandth time of him acing
- 20:03Speaker 2: a cognitive test where they say, like, bear, eagle, giraffe.
- 20:07Speaker 3: Which one is the giraffe? I'm like, this is the
- 20:11Speaker 3: East Potomac Park. This is the ballroom. Like, he's incapable of.
- 20:15Speaker 3: He wasn't smitten with Roger Marshall. No, he was not
- 20:18Speaker 3: smitten with Roger Marshall. By the way, quick sidebar on that.
- 20:20Speaker 3: Did you see? I thought this was smart.
- 20:22Speaker 2: You see, Adam Hamilton went up with a TV ad
- 20:25Speaker 2: welcoming Trump to the state and saying, I just want
- 20:27Speaker 2: you to know if if you voted for Donald Trump,
- 20:29Speaker 2: you have a home in my campaign. Like it speaks
- 20:32Speaker 2: to both his savvy, but also the challenge, which is
- 20:35Speaker 2: you got to get a whole lot of Republicans to
- 20:38Speaker 2: vote for you if you want to win.
- 20:39Speaker 3: That's you know. That's right.
- 20:41Speaker 2: We've talked Texas. I want to take a quick sidebar
- 20:43Speaker 2: into Texas. So as folks know, Kalshi is supporting and
- 20:48Speaker 2: sponsoring this podcast through the election. We are thankful for
- 20:53Speaker 2: people who are willing to support our independent journalism.
- 20:57Speaker 3: I want to pull something up and Chuck flagged this
- 20:59Speaker 3: for me.
- 21:00Speaker 2: On Monday night, because this is a really interesting one.
- 21:03Speaker 3: So Chuck, let's talk about this. So this is, let
- 21:06Speaker 3: me pull up Kalshi here. All right. This is Governor
- 21:10Speaker 3: and let me get slightly bigger here. This is governor
- 21:13Speaker 3: and Senate.
- 21:14Speaker 2: So you can you can get into the prediction market
- 21:16Speaker 2: for both the governor's race and the Senate race. We've
- 21:21Speaker 2: talked a lot about both of these races. So the
- 21:25Speaker 2: green here that you see, this is. Sort of a
- 21:28Speaker 2: split decision. The most likely probability is Greg Abbott wins
- 21:32Speaker 2: the governor's race. James Tallarico wins the Senate race. So
- 21:37Speaker 2: a Republican governor, a Democratic senator, a Republican sweep. Paxton
- 21:42Speaker 2: Abbott is second. And then a Democratic sweep is second. Third, now,
- 21:49Speaker 2: I don't see odds on Gina Hinojosa winning. I thought
- 21:52Speaker 2: there was one. It's probably down here.
- 21:55Speaker 3: Yeah, less than one. Gina Hinojosa, it does not merit
- 21:57Speaker 3: a line on the graph, which would be a Democrat
- 22:00Speaker 3: wins governor and Paxson wins Senate. What's your take on that, Chuck?
- 22:05Speaker 2: Let me ask you first, do these races move in
- 22:10Speaker 2: unison or are they separate entities? First of all, I
- 22:13Speaker 2: guess that'll inform kind of what interests you in this chart.
- 22:18Speaker 3: Well, I think there are part, you know, what's interesting
- 22:20Speaker 3: here is that they basically move together. But so, for instance,
- 22:28Speaker 3: you know, you know, so does there are, you know,
- 22:31Speaker 3: Paxton voters, right? She's got a group of of essentially
- 22:37Speaker 3: mega moms who can't stand what Abbott has done to
- 22:41Speaker 3: school funding, the cuts he's done that have impacted, you know,
- 22:46Speaker 3: you know, impacted particularly rural schools in particular, look, the
- 22:51Speaker 3: voucher program is very divisive. You know, again, you know,
- 22:54Speaker 3: if you've got access to multiple schools, school choice feels
- 22:58Speaker 3: like a viable thing. If you live in a community
- 23:01Speaker 3: where there just are not a lot of choices. Instead,
- 23:04Speaker 3: all you've done is the state has gutted your local school,
- 23:07Speaker 3: which you. And that is an issue of partisanship. This
- 23:11Speaker 3: is what. Look, this is how Republicans screwed up Kansas.
- 23:15Speaker 3: This is how Republicans opened the door for Democrats in Iowa.
- 23:18Speaker 3: And they're doing it here because it is. I think
- 23:23Speaker 3: the fundamental mistake that lawmakers on the right make about
- 23:28Speaker 3: people's anger about the school system is they want it
- 23:32Speaker 3: to work. They don't want the response to be, great,
- 23:38Speaker 3: leave the system. They actually want the schools fixed. They
- 23:42Speaker 3: don't want it eliminated. And essentially, their conservative response has
- 23:47Speaker 3: simply been to eliminate the public schools in their own way.
- 23:51Speaker 3: Kansas is such a great example.
- 23:52Speaker 2: What Sam Brownback did to schools in Kansas.
- 23:55Speaker 3: Yeah. And this is an issue that just creates cross-currents.
- 23:59Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 24:00Speaker 3: The irony is there really is. I mean, I look,
- 24:04Speaker 3: I am. I think the most interesting campaign in the
- 24:07Speaker 3: country is Jeannie Hose's campaign. Oh, interesting. What just the
- 24:10Speaker 3: different because she's trying to meet voters where they are. She's,
- 24:14Speaker 3: you know, leaning in in different ways. I just think she's.
- 24:17Speaker 3: Running a really smart race. By the way, I cannot
- 24:19Speaker 3: believe Andy Beshear is not still not funding it. Andy Beshear,
- 24:24Speaker 3: the governor of Kentucky, is the head of the Democratic
- 24:26Speaker 3: Governors Association. I mean, he's facing huge amounts.
- 24:29Speaker 2: Of heat from the Latino community nationwide for not giving
- 24:32Speaker 2: more money to, you know.
- 24:34Speaker 3: Guess what he just did. He just gave a half
- 24:36Speaker 3: a million to Oklahoma. What? The Oklahoma governor's race. I
- 24:40Speaker 3: was unaware there was an Oklahoma. No, I mean, I
- 24:42Speaker 3: knew there was a governor's race, but I just assumed
- 24:45Speaker 3: that Mike Mazzei was going to win. Yeah, well, he's
- 24:48Speaker 3: the favorite, but it's been a single digit race. Look,
- 24:51Speaker 3: we saw this in 2018, right? It's a cheaper date.
- 24:54Speaker 3: I mean, his justification would be it's so expensive. A
- 24:57Speaker 3: million dollars there doesn't do it. It does a lot.
- 25:00Speaker 3: A million dollars in Texas does nothing. But still. you take, you,
- 25:03Speaker 3: you put Texas in the purple category and you've just
- 25:07Speaker 3: upended the chess board, right? We've talked about it. If
- 25:09Speaker 3: you win the governorship in Oklahoma, if you win the
- 25:12Speaker 3: governorship in Oklahoma, you know what you've done? You've won
- 25:15Speaker 3: the governorship in Oklahoma. Correct.
- 25:17Speaker 2: All right. I mean, we're really not talking much about
- 25:19Speaker 2: Brad Henry anymore. And he was a two term democratic
- 25:21Speaker 2: governor of Oklahoma.
- 25:22Speaker 3: So, um, look, so I just think that she's run
- 25:27Speaker 3: a really unique race. And, you know, for instance, she's
- 25:29Speaker 3: got this woman, Lynn Davenport, who's, Who has an endorsement
- 25:34Speaker 3: ad where she says I was at the January 6th rally.
- 25:37Speaker 3: And this is why I support Abbott. So I do.
- 25:39Speaker 3: The irony here is what to go back to what
- 25:41Speaker 3: I was starting is there are I really believe there
- 25:44Speaker 3: actually are, you know, Paxton voters who are, you know.
- 25:48Speaker 3: When it comes to Washington, it's Jersey color, right? That's
- 25:52Speaker 3: what I want in Washington. But Abbott has screwed this up,
- 25:56Speaker 3: and it's time for him to go. And look, she
- 25:59Speaker 3: also is saying, I'm not going to relitigate culture wars.
- 26:02Speaker 3: We're not going to do that. I'm here. If I
- 26:04Speaker 3: get elected, I know why I've gotten elected. So that's
- 26:08Speaker 3: the pledge she's been making. So I do think she's
- 26:11Speaker 3: just run, just like what you were pointing out with
- 26:15Speaker 3: Adam Hamilton, Yeah. With what you know, hey, there's a
- 26:18Speaker 3: home for you here. It's the totally thing that she's
- 26:21Speaker 3: been doing. So the point is, is that I do
- 26:23Speaker 3: believe in obvious. But there's obviously more. There's no doubt
- 26:27Speaker 3: there are more sort of business, your Chamber of Commerce
- 26:30Speaker 3: Republican in Texas who's been. who lives in suburban Dallas,
- 26:34Speaker 3: suburban Houston, they're fine with Abbott. He's been good for them.
- 26:39Speaker 3: The school choice issue there hasn't been as impactful because
- 26:43Speaker 3: you have a lot more choice. It hasn't been as
- 26:49Speaker 3: perhaps that hasn't been the constituency that has been open
- 26:52Speaker 3: to the OSA campaign. Look, I agree with the general
- 26:57Speaker 3: sort of groupings of the sort of and where percentage-wise
- 27:02Speaker 3: these sit. But I will tell you, it is a
- 27:09Speaker 3: better way to get into the– it is an interesting
- 27:14Speaker 3: way to get into the market if you're looking to
- 27:15Speaker 3: get into the Texas market, which is either you– It's
- 27:23Speaker 3: right now. You've got to spend a lot of money.
- 27:25Speaker 3: If you just think Tallarico is going to win. Absolutely.
- 27:28Speaker 3: I mean, he's a favorite. He's certainly the favorite in
- 27:30Speaker 3: these markets. Both of these cases, you get to have
- 27:34Speaker 3: a little bit of Tallarico exposure, but, um, but the
- 27:39Speaker 3: share price is affordable, right? Oh, I think this, I mean, look,
- 27:43Speaker 3: I'm looking at this 24%.
- 27:45Speaker 2: Look, I think today, Tallarico is favored. Now, that doesn't
- 27:51Speaker 2: mean he's going to win. It's very close, right? I mean,
- 27:53Speaker 2: but I think Tallarico is favored. So if you think Tallarico.
- 27:56Speaker 3: Is going to win, this at 24% for a Democratic sweep.
- 28:01Speaker 3: But Chris, look, the point is, is that, you know,
- 28:05Speaker 3: you can essentially... Put yourself in positive territory if you
- 28:12Speaker 3: split your money accordingly. Totally. A little bit on Tallarico Abbott,
- 28:16Speaker 3: a little bit on Tallarico Hinojosa. It's just an interesting thing.
- 28:21Speaker 3: And I would say, and.
- 28:24Speaker 2: I'm 99.9% sure you agree with this, Tallarico wins. You
- 28:30Speaker 2: can see a Tallarico Abbott victory far easier than you
- 28:35Speaker 2: could see Hinojosa Paxton.
- 28:39Speaker 3: Right.
- 28:39Speaker 2: Like Tallerico wins way before Hinojosa wins.
- 28:43Speaker 3: Right. The point I'm saying is, is if you wanted
- 28:46Speaker 3: to look, if you want a Tallerico exposure without having
- 28:49Speaker 3: to pay 65 cents. And that's what it is. Sixty
- 28:52Speaker 3: five cents. Sixty four. Sixty five. Right. Instead, you're under
- 28:56Speaker 3: 50 cents for either Tallerico or Tallerico, you know. So
- 29:01Speaker 3: it's a it's probably a more efficient way to have
- 29:04Speaker 3: exposure to the Texas races. So that's Kelsey. We are
- 29:08Speaker 3: supportive of anyone who supports us. Right. In that regard,
- 29:12Speaker 3: we we always urge people. Chuck and I do this. Look,
- 29:16Speaker 3: this is for adults only. This is this. You know,
- 29:18Speaker 3: this is do. Chuck always says this thing is important.
- 29:22Speaker 3: Do your research. This is real money. It's not it's
- 29:24Speaker 3: not fake money. This is real money. So do your research.
- 29:28Speaker 3: You may use it as a data point. Yeah.
- 29:30Speaker 2: And so you, you know, if that's something that floats
- 29:33Speaker 2: your boat, but don't go into this thinking that you're
- 29:36Speaker 2: playing with monopoly money because you're not.
- 29:38Speaker 3: Right. Well said. We have not talked about because I
- 29:44Speaker 3: think amazingly, the new White House press secretary both started
- 29:49Speaker 3: and was fired in between our weekly episode, which says
- 29:55Speaker 3: everything you need to know about that. Look, I am.
- 29:59Speaker 3: I'm very much a sequential thinker, okay? I'm a linear thinker. Okay.
- 30:05Speaker 3: And it's very important to me, though, that we officially
- 30:08Speaker 3: designate a Zachariah is five and a half days. Yes.
- 30:13Speaker 3: Not five days. Yes. Because we need it to be
- 30:16Speaker 3: exactly one half of a Scaramucci. Half a Scaramucci. You're
- 30:19Speaker 3: a linear thinker. Nothing wrong with that. Two Zachariahs equal
- 30:22Speaker 3: one Scaramucci. Yes. And I think that's important. Yes. Two
- 30:26Speaker 3: Z equals one S. There you go. Okay, so it
- 30:31Speaker 3: is easy, and I think, you know, I have engaged
- 30:34Speaker 3: in a lot of, like, what in the hell, like,
- 30:36Speaker 3: eye roll laughing. She clearly was not up to this,
- 30:40Speaker 3: and not just because of the first press briefing, but
- 30:43Speaker 3: because of these subsequent interviews on, like, very friendly territory, Hannity,
- 30:47Speaker 3: Fox & Friends, and, you know.
- 30:50Speaker 2: So, I want to focus less on her, because we
- 30:53Speaker 2: will literally never hear from her again, and more on
- 30:59Speaker 2: The processes that get someone like that a very high
- 31:04Speaker 2: profile job.
- 31:06Speaker 3: Processes. I love that you think there was a process.
- 31:08Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 31:09Speaker 2: Well, I may be over... I was almost going to add,
- 31:11Speaker 2: I may be overstating it.
- 31:13Speaker 1: I mean.
- 31:14Speaker 3: We've talked about and we don't need to go into
- 31:17Speaker 3: Hegseth at Pete Hegseth again. But like I am always reminded,
- 31:20Speaker 3: I know you and I have talked about Jack Reed,
- 31:23Speaker 3: not a partisan, the senator. I mean, he's a Democratic
- 31:26Speaker 3: senator from Rhode Island, but not like a flamethrower. He's
- 31:28Speaker 3: not trying to run for president. He's not trying to
- 31:29Speaker 3: score points in Pete Hegseth. Hearing said, I would not
- 31:32Speaker 3: only not vote for you to be the secretary of defense,
- 31:35Speaker 3: I would not vote for you to be the press
- 31:37Speaker 3: secretary at the secretary of defense. And I was like, well, OK.
- 31:41Speaker 3: This is seems to me in line with people who
- 31:44Speaker 3: are simply, whether you agree with their policies, they are
- 31:48Speaker 3: simply not qualified to do these jobs. And yet they
- 31:54Speaker 3: are being put into these jobs, obviously for Katie Zachariah briefly.
- 31:58Speaker 3: Is there a lesson, a bigger lesson beyond, wow, she
- 32:02Speaker 3: imploded to be learned here, Chuck? Well, here's what it
- 32:05Speaker 3: tells me a little bit is that, um, There's something
- 32:12Speaker 3: happening inside that West Wing because he did it without
- 32:17Speaker 3: Susie Wiles. Right. He did it on his own. He
- 32:20Speaker 3: made this higher on his own. It wasn't whatever process
- 32:24Speaker 3: had been in place was ignored for this. He just
- 32:27Speaker 3: sort of did it. He made it happen. And, you know,
- 32:32Speaker 3: it was it was the most first term Trump. staffing
- 32:37Speaker 3: thing we had seen yet. Very true.
- 32:39Speaker 2: And by the way, it came out right when the
- 32:40Speaker 2: Susie Wiles news came out, right? That like maybe he
- 32:43Speaker 2: was replacing her. It was like right at the same time,
- 32:45Speaker 2: those two stories were intertwining.
- 32:46Speaker 3: And they, and they, you know, and it's interesting how
- 32:50Speaker 3: quickly he has given a vote of confidence to her,
- 32:56Speaker 3: to Susie on this one. But it is, look, and
- 33:02Speaker 3: there's a lot of stories I've heard on this where,
- 33:05Speaker 3: it's growing more and more people don't want to give
- 33:07Speaker 3: him bad news. So they just sort of stay away
- 33:10Speaker 3: from him. And, you know, he's, you know, he spends it,
- 33:14Speaker 3: they do what he can to schedule him up. So
- 33:16Speaker 3: he's got rallies, you know, maybe there's a bunch, there's
- 33:19Speaker 3: a couple of CEOs that they can sort of distract
- 33:21Speaker 3: them with a three hour meeting. You know what he
- 33:23Speaker 3: loves to do? Literally any CEOs that come to town,
- 33:26Speaker 3: you know, they feel like they've got, you know, it's,
- 33:29Speaker 3: Their government relations people will say, hey, if you can
- 33:32Speaker 3: get into the Oval, do it.
- 33:34Speaker 2: Sure.
- 33:34Speaker 3: They will. And then what does he do? He gives them–
- 33:39Speaker 3: I mean, I can't tell you how often I've heard
- 33:41Speaker 3: a version of this story. He gives them a tour
- 33:44Speaker 3: of the ballroom. He gives them a tour of the helipad.
- 33:46Speaker 3: He gives them a tour of the wall of fame
- 33:50Speaker 3: and all the gold. And Joe Biden, this is the
- 33:52Speaker 3: auto pen. And he just spends half a day. He
- 33:57Speaker 3: doesn't really do anything because nobody wants him doing anything, right?
- 34:01Speaker 3: The actual staff of the White House tries to essentially
- 34:05Speaker 3: load up his schedule with distraction busy work, right? which
- 34:09Speaker 3: is meet with developers, meet with CEOs, meet with the
- 34:13Speaker 3: Fazio family to design the East Potomac Golf Links course,
- 34:17Speaker 3: you know, or as our friend Doug High called it, Bushwood, D.C. Bushwood? Bushwood?
- 34:24Speaker 3: I mean, we can only hope. Trump is Ted Knight.
- 34:29Speaker 3: Or Rodney Dangerfield. I'm not sure which, you know. By
- 34:32Speaker 3: that hat, you get a free bowl of soup. Is
- 34:34Speaker 3: he Shmales or is he like in some ways Trump's both?
- 34:37Speaker 3: Al Chervik. Yeah. It is a good point, though, because
- 34:43Speaker 3: there's something happening in the West Wing. The fact that
- 34:46Speaker 3: this happened without.
- 34:48Speaker 2: Right.
- 34:49Speaker 3: And it was more of the it shows you. And look,
- 34:53Speaker 3: I'd heard he was. Where's all my defenders? Nobody's defending
- 34:56Speaker 3: me on TV. He was getting frustrated that they hadn't
- 34:59Speaker 3: found somebody. So he was going to take matters into
- 35:02Speaker 3: his own hands. And it just sort of reinforces that
- 35:06Speaker 3: this other stuff I'd been hearing, which is, yeah, do
- 35:08Speaker 3: what you can to fill up a schedule. Keep them busy.
- 35:12Speaker 3: Don't let them essentially sit idle. You know, it's sort
- 35:16Speaker 3: of like totally the kid that can't be can't be
- 35:18Speaker 3: sitting idle because he gets on social. He'll start saying
- 35:22Speaker 3: crazy stuff on true. So we need to change New
- 35:24Speaker 3: Mexico's name. I mean, that's it.
- 35:26Speaker 2: And by the way, to go back to where we started,
- 35:28Speaker 2: that's also, I think, why. whether it's a good, bad,
- 35:32Speaker 2: or indifferent thing, they've got him out on the campaign
- 35:35Speaker 2: trail constantly. He likes doing that, right?
- 35:38Speaker 3: It keeps him busy. It distracts him. He likes hearing
- 35:40Speaker 3: people cheer for him. He likes performing. The less likely
- 35:45Speaker 3: he's telling Natalie to post something crazy on Truth Social. Right. Yep.
- 35:49Speaker 2: And he's getting also what he wants to, which is adoration, right? Like,
- 35:54Speaker 2: people love me. People are chanting my name. We've got
- 35:57Speaker 2: packed houses everywhere.
- 35:58Speaker 3: Right. Chuck and I do speeches from time to time
- 36:03Speaker 3: around the country, and one of the questions, Chuck, I
- 36:05Speaker 3: assume you get too, I get all the time, especially now, is, okay, well,
- 36:09Speaker 3: what happens, what does it all look like? on December
- 36:14Speaker 3: 1st or January 15th?
- 36:16Speaker 2: If, let's just say, Democrats do take, I was looking
- 36:19Speaker 2: at Decision Desk HQ, our friend's odds, and they have
- 36:23Speaker 2: a Democratic sweep at 56% or 57%.
- 36:26Speaker 3: Probability right now. What does that look like? And I
- 36:29Speaker 3: think the assumption, at least among a lot of Democrats,
- 36:31Speaker 3: like not Democrats elected officials, but Democrats who are asking
- 36:34Speaker 3: me this question is, well, man, nothing's going to get
- 36:37Speaker 3: done and Trump and them are going to fight. And
- 36:39Speaker 3: I'm like, ah, I honestly don't know, but what does
- 36:42Speaker 3: it look like? Because if they lose the House and Senate,
- 36:46Speaker 3: if he is now really a lame duck, but also
- 36:50Speaker 3: really legacy focused, like he is a dealmaker, not a
- 36:54Speaker 3: partisan really at heart. What do you... Let's just go
- 36:58Speaker 3: down the hypothetical. They lose the House and the Senate.
- 37:01Speaker 3: So you now have a Democratic House, a Democratic Senate,
- 37:04Speaker 3: and obviously Donald Trump is still the president of the
- 37:05Speaker 3: United States.
- 37:07Speaker 2: What's the vibe? What are you thinking of? And I'm
- 37:11Speaker 2: not saying on November 8th or something. I'm talking about
- 37:13Speaker 2: the next three months. Well, first, you've got to see,
- 37:19Speaker 2: are we going to have a government shutdown or not?
- 37:21Speaker 3: And I think that that is... potentially dependent on what
- 37:27Speaker 3: is the attitude of Republicans coming into this, right? How
- 37:34Speaker 3: angry are they? If it's a wipeout, how big is
- 37:39Speaker 3: the wipeout? Is there real bitterness, et cetera? So I
- 37:43Speaker 3: think we'll get at least a hint at How do
- 37:46Speaker 3: Republicans that aren't named Trump handle this situation? And that'll
- 37:51Speaker 3: be litigated in the lame doc for people who don't.
- 37:53Speaker 3: And that gets litigated in that sort of three-week period,
- 37:55Speaker 3: particularly between Thanksgiving and Christmas. But I have said– I
- 38:02Speaker 3: continue to– I fully admit that this is the hardest
- 38:06Speaker 3: question there is to answer because there's so many moving
- 38:09Speaker 3: parts here, right? Yeah. Let's start with the Democratic Party.
- 38:13Speaker 3: If they get the clean sweep, it's going to be
- 38:15Speaker 3: because a whole bunch of people got elected that aren't
- 38:18Speaker 3: base Democrats. A whole bunch of people got elected by saying,
- 38:22Speaker 3: I'm a different kind of Democrat. Totally. All right. Then
- 38:25Speaker 3: you've got a whole bunch of Democrats who won some
- 38:29Speaker 3: very blue primaries. Now, they came in ready to say,
- 38:33Speaker 3: we're going to hold this guy accountable and we're going
- 38:35Speaker 3: to make sure that we're going to get them for
- 38:37Speaker 3: breaking the law on immigration and breaking the law and
- 38:39Speaker 3: all these things. So you've got this. And there's certainly
- 38:43Speaker 3: going to be a unified party in doing accountability on
- 38:47Speaker 3: the administration. So I think there'll certainly be a shared
- 38:52Speaker 3: belief that that needs to be done. There may be
- 38:55Speaker 3: a disagreement on who should be targeted first. What should
- 38:59Speaker 3: they be focused on first, right? So there's that. And
- 39:12Speaker 3: then the tactics, too, is impeachment. Do you leap to impeachment?
- 39:16Speaker 3: Do you try to impeach Pete Hegseth? Do you try
- 39:17Speaker 3: to impeach Donald Trump? And again, size of the midterm matters.
- 39:20Speaker 3: If it's 235 to 245 House seats, Akeem Jeffries can
- 39:21Speaker 3: manage the social. Okay. The socialists are the Freedom Caucus
- 39:33Speaker 3: of the left and are mostly manageable. And they're the
- 39:37Speaker 3: Freedom Caucus circa 20, you know, maybe 2014, 2016. Right.
- 39:42Speaker 3: Annoyingly vintage. But manageable. Yeah. But if you're looking at
- 39:49Speaker 3: a very small, if you're looking at a House margin
- 39:53Speaker 3: under 230 for Democrats, where they're basically right around 10
- 39:58Speaker 3: seats or single digit, well, that's an entirely different ballgame.
- 40:01Speaker 3: And that's an entirely more insular Democratic majority that is, frankly,
- 40:08Speaker 3: a Democratic majority in name only. Just like we've seen
- 40:11Speaker 3: with the Republican. Republicans have the majority in the House,
- 40:15Speaker 3: but they don't have control of the House. Right. That's
- 40:18Speaker 3: been that's a great way to put it. And I
- 40:20Speaker 3: think that that would be a similar situation. But let
- 40:23Speaker 3: me introduce a few other things. Like, I agree with
- 40:25Speaker 3: you on Trump. You got which Trump's going to be there.
- 40:28Speaker 3: Is it Donald Trump that likes to hang out with
- 40:30Speaker 3: Mamdani and wants to sideline? Praising AOC. That's right. But
- 40:36Speaker 3: then you're going to have a Democratic presidential primary campaign
- 40:38Speaker 3: that is going to have gotten started, plus a Republican
- 40:41Speaker 3: presidential primary campaign that's gotten started. Well, those are going
- 40:44Speaker 3: to be very base focused campaigns. campaign messages, campaign rhetoric.
- 40:50Speaker 3: And if there's a group of Democrats that want to
- 40:53Speaker 3: do a deal with the White House, how's that going
- 40:55Speaker 3: to play in the campaign trail? Are they going to
- 40:57Speaker 3: spin up the base? The base spins up the party
- 41:00Speaker 3: and there's all sorts of infighting about, are you there
- 41:04Speaker 3: to govern? Are you enabling Trump? One person's enablers, another
- 41:09Speaker 3: person's Hey, I'm just here to get stuff done.
- 41:12Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 41:12Speaker 3: Bipartisan compromiser.
- 41:14Speaker 1: Right.
- 41:14Speaker 3: Exactly. So I just think that and look in Schumer
- 41:19Speaker 3: and Jeffries. But let's particularly Jeffries. I think ultimately he
- 41:27Speaker 3: wants to be above this a little bit and try
- 41:30Speaker 3: to try to manage this. But his own backyard is,
- 41:35Speaker 3: you know. the socialists are, are, are right there in
- 41:39Speaker 3: his rear view mirror that, that I would not take
- 41:42Speaker 3: comfort in the sign that says objects in your mirror
- 41:44Speaker 3: may be closer, you know, they're closer than they are.
- 41:49Speaker 3: They're right there.
- 41:50Speaker 2: He has to worry a little bit or maybe a
- 41:52Speaker 2: lot bit about his own primary.
- 41:55Speaker 3: Yeah. And so that is going to be its own
- 41:57Speaker 3: form of check on him in ways that I think can,
- 42:02Speaker 3: and can cause the point is, is, is, um, I
- 42:07Speaker 3: think anybody that is definitive about how the first six
- 42:11Speaker 3: months go in Washington, it is a lot easier to
- 42:15Speaker 3: bet on paralysis. And I'm betting on paralysis, not between
- 42:19Speaker 3: the D's and the R's. I'm betting on paralysis inside
- 42:21Speaker 3: of both parties that just prevent us from ever getting
- 42:24Speaker 3: to the point where you might even see anything beyond
- 42:30Speaker 3: the minimum of getting, you know, of getting just making
- 42:34Speaker 3: sure the lights are on. And I'm intrigued by Trump
- 42:38Speaker 3: and kind of what he does because it's just– again,
- 42:42Speaker 3: I think people misread him, particularly on the left, as
- 42:47Speaker 3: kind of like just a rank partisan. He's really not.
- 42:50Speaker 3: I mean he's just like a– I don't even think
- 42:54Speaker 3: he really has a politics to him really like ultimately.
- 42:58Speaker 3: Here's how I– here's sort of my– it's a hypothetical,
- 43:02Speaker 3: but I think the exercise– gets it to the point
- 43:06Speaker 3: i want to make is um would you do a
- 43:09Speaker 3: deal with donald trump for dc statehood if his demand
- 43:13Speaker 3: was to name the state after himself yep and you
- 43:18Speaker 3: know people i throw that hypothetical at people and they
- 43:20Speaker 3: and they sort of roll their eyes and i'm like
- 43:22Speaker 3: no i'm serious And I sit there and say, are
- 43:25Speaker 3: you how much a clear win for Democrats? I mean, D.C. statehood.
- 43:30Speaker 3: But and the reason, you know, I'm not saying that
- 43:32Speaker 3: exact deal will be on the table. It's deals like
- 43:35Speaker 3: that where you might be able to get something that
- 43:38Speaker 3: you couldn't get another Republican. Right. Right. Not a million years. Right.
- 43:44Speaker 3: But you're going to have to do stuff with him
- 43:47Speaker 3: that you would never have thought you'd be willing to do.
- 43:50Speaker 1: Right.
- 43:51Speaker 3: Right. Are you willing to go down that road? And
- 43:56Speaker 3: here's the other divide inside the party among Democrats. Well,
- 44:00Speaker 3: and this goes to Republicans, is the Democrats who give
- 44:07Speaker 3: the party the majority are not base Democrats. No. They're
- 44:12Speaker 3: like the Adam Hamiltons of the world if it happens.
- 44:14Speaker 3: Are they going to have a real seat at the table? Right. Now,
- 44:17Speaker 3: let me flip the script. What Republicans are going to
- 44:20Speaker 3: be left? Hardcore. Are you wiping out all of the workables?
- 44:23Speaker 3: Trump plus 15 plus districts. Or are they all going
- 44:26Speaker 3: to be the Trumpiest of all? Yeah. And does that
- 44:28Speaker 3: create a binary comparison that sort of also impacts dealmaking?
- 44:36Speaker 3: I'll add to that, Chuck. I think there's a lot
- 44:39Speaker 3: more uncertainty to this question. Huge.
- 44:42Speaker 2: Than folks appreciate. I would just add one more piece
- 44:45Speaker 2: of uncertainty. We talked about the Democratic Party, the Republican Party.
- 44:48Speaker 2: We focus on Trump for sure. I mean, he's a president.
- 44:50Speaker 2: What he does will matter and how.
- 44:51Speaker 3: He acts will matter. But look. We have been debating
- 44:55Speaker 3: for the last decade when when and if and whether
- 44:59Speaker 3: the Republican Party will at some point writ large say, wait,
- 45:03Speaker 3: what the hell are we doing with this guy again?
- 45:04Speaker 3: And if Republicans lose, certainly in the House, I think
- 45:09Speaker 3: probably is likely gone. But the Senate as well. Is
- 45:12Speaker 3: there a. reckoning even within.
- 45:15Speaker 2: A 15 of the republican party that says what the
- 45:19Speaker 2: hell are we doing who leads it how does he
- 45:22Speaker 2: react like a.
- 45:23Speaker 3: Friend of mine noted this they're like donald trump you
- 45:28Speaker 3: know let's say let's say uh democrats sweep texas right
- 45:33Speaker 3: yeah until i go in yeah a friend of mine
- 45:36Speaker 3: compared it to Boy, this is just like Donald Trump's
- 45:40Speaker 3: business career. He took his father's inheritance and ended up
- 45:42Speaker 3: bankrupting the company. It's like he inherited the Republican Party,
- 45:46Speaker 3: and in 10 years, he lost Texas. Pretty remarkable. Right?
- 45:50Speaker 3: And it is sort of the person compared it to
- 45:55Speaker 3: Trump essentially bankrupting Fred's company. The arc. Right. It's sort
- 46:00Speaker 3: of a similar, and it made me laugh. I think
- 46:04Speaker 3: that that's– the other thing, too, is like, At some point,
- 46:11Speaker 3: you mentioned this in passing, but at some point here,
- 46:13Speaker 3: the race to replace him, it would.
- 46:15Speaker 2: Have already begun under anyone other than Donald Trump. But he,
- 46:18Speaker 2: you know, he don't let anybody steal a spotlight. But
- 46:20Speaker 2: at some point, the race to replace him will start.
- 46:23Speaker 3: And, you know, obviously, Vance, we know. But, you know,
- 46:26Speaker 3: like the Ted Cruz's and the, you know, like, look,
- 46:29Speaker 3: what is the camp? I mean, right. Brian Kemp is
- 46:32Speaker 3: a great example. Yeah. As a candidate, you know, he's boy,
- 46:37Speaker 3: he's leaving off me. 70 approval rating very popular for
- 46:42Speaker 3: a two-term governor of anything some of this is just
- 46:46Speaker 3: uh a whole bunch of people who would never vote
- 46:48Speaker 3: for but we're like man the guy's not trump thank
- 46:50Speaker 3: god right and they're just he's a republican but he's
- 46:52Speaker 3: not trump right and and they're sort of he gets
- 46:54Speaker 3: rewarded by certain independents and democrats i think for not
- 46:57Speaker 3: being for for basically standing up to trump yep um
- 47:02Speaker 3: what kind of appetite is that is there for the
- 47:04Speaker 3: part you know and and Look, do I think that
- 47:07Speaker 3: if Republicans nominated Brian Kemp, they would it would be.
- 47:12Speaker 3: to me, proof that they've all gotten their sanity back.
- 47:16Speaker 3: They realized Trump was a disaster. You know, I just
- 47:19Speaker 3: don't picture that happening as easily as, you know, do
- 47:24Speaker 3: I think it's just like, do I think Democrats ought
- 47:26Speaker 3: to go into a lab and just say, Hey, let's
- 47:28Speaker 3: do Kelly and Warnock and be done with this. Pastor
- 47:32Speaker 3: populism by Chuck Todd. The pastor and the astronaut. Just
- 47:37Speaker 3: like if you're the Republicans, Jesus, just do Brian Kemp.
- 47:40Speaker 3: And you know, um, Ashley Hinson, go, you know, like that.
- 47:46Speaker 3: Or Katie Britt and Brian Kemp. That's the thing.
- 47:48Speaker 2: They never do what they should do, which is what
- 47:50Speaker 2: makes it interesting. But yes. And I just I think
- 47:54Speaker 2: I'm so glad that you said that kind of like
- 47:56Speaker 2: how hard it is to decipher, because I just think
- 47:59Speaker 2: assuming that the next two years would go like the
- 48:03Speaker 2: last two years, the thing we know most about Trump
- 48:07Speaker 2: is not only is he deeply unpredictable, he revels in
- 48:11Speaker 2: kind of upsetting expectation.
- 48:14Speaker 3: So it's like, you know, I don't know how the
- 48:16Speaker 3: hell he's going.
- 48:16Speaker 2: To, we know the election was rigged and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
- 48:20Speaker 2: But I don't know how he's going to react in,
- 48:23Speaker 2: in March, 2027.
- 48:24Speaker 3: He doesn't respect people that have no power. So if
- 48:29Speaker 3: the Republican party in Congress has no power, he's not
- 48:32Speaker 3: going to care about them. And he's going to, in
- 48:35Speaker 3: his own way, say, you did this to yourself, even
- 48:37Speaker 3: though we all know Donald Trump did this to them.
- 48:40Speaker 3: But that's not how Donald Trump's going to behave. He's
- 48:43Speaker 3: going to behave like, well, this is your fault for
- 48:45Speaker 3: not passing the SAVE Act. This is your fault for
- 48:47Speaker 3: not getting rid of the filibuster. It's Karl Rowe's fault
- 48:50Speaker 3: for not funding Ken Paxton. So he's going to self-soothe.
- 48:55Speaker 3: And in his weird self-soothing period, it is going to
- 49:01Speaker 3: make him a legislative wildcard. But I go back to
- 49:07Speaker 3: how much are Democrats willing to work with him and
- 49:10Speaker 3: go down that road? Because it is a scorpion and
- 49:12Speaker 3: frog moment. He's going to sting you. 100 is the
- 49:15Speaker 3: sting worth it right is the is the ride you
- 49:19Speaker 3: need to get across the the river whatever it is
- 49:22Speaker 3: yeah is it worth it i don't know.
- 49:24Speaker 2: And two other quick things on that. One, he does
- 49:27Speaker 2: remember he does have pre-existing relationships prior to being president
- 49:32Speaker 2: with both Akeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer because of New York.
- 49:35Speaker 3: Closer with Schumer, but he does have relationships with both
- 49:38Speaker 3: of them. And we talked about Jeffries and his peril,
- 49:41Speaker 3: but look at Schumer. I mean, does Schumer, has Schumer
- 49:44Speaker 3: made up his mind that he's going to retire and
- 49:47Speaker 3: therefore he's going to go legacy, some kind of big
- 49:50Speaker 3: deal with Trump? Or does he want to try to
- 49:53Speaker 3: run again and keep AOC off of him? Can I
- 49:56Speaker 3: give him advice that he'll never take and no one ever? Sure,
- 49:59Speaker 3: that's the business we're in. Isn't that the business we're in? Yeah,
- 50:02Speaker 3: that's what we do. Advice no one takes. Right. You know,
- 50:06Speaker 3: the minute Patello gets called for the Senate, let's say
- 50:09Speaker 3: I'm trying to think of what's the You know, Alaska,
- 50:13Speaker 3: we won't know on election night because of rank choice voting.
- 50:15Speaker 3: Rank choice. So, you know, as soon as Abdul El-Sayed
- 50:18Speaker 3: finally gets called, right, say, you know, I assume that
- 50:25Speaker 3: we're actually going to be waiting on Michigan, technically. It
- 50:27Speaker 3: counts so slow. You know, well, it'll be just. And
- 50:31Speaker 3: it'll be close. Right. You know, one of the weird
- 50:33Speaker 3: aspects of election night is Democrats could have a huge night,
- 50:36Speaker 3: but we won't know it between the hours of 8
- 50:38Speaker 3: and 11. Because it's not like if they have a
- 50:41Speaker 3: huge night, it means they win a lot of close
- 50:44Speaker 3: races in places they've never won or they haven't won
- 50:47Speaker 3: in a long time.
- 50:48Speaker 2: I'm depending on your home state because Florida counts super close.
- 50:51Speaker 2: So if Andrew Nixon comes anywhere close to Ashley Moody,
- 50:54Speaker 2: I'm assuming it's going to.
- 50:55Speaker 3: Be a good night for them.
- 50:56Speaker 1: Right.
- 50:56Speaker 3: No, I think that Florida might be a tea leaf reader.
- 50:59Speaker 3: And we've got, you know, I. Shoot, the state of Virginia,
- 51:03Speaker 3: I have said, has small, medium and large. Virginia two,
- 51:06Speaker 3: Virginia one, Virginia five.
- 51:08Speaker 1: Right.
- 51:08Speaker 3: That's right. Tom Perriello. Tom Perriello wins. Coming to Congress.
- 51:11Speaker 3: Watch out. Democrats are winning the House by a lot.
- 51:14Speaker 3: That's right.
- 51:15Speaker 1: So.
- 51:18Speaker 2: But you're right. It is possible. It's like Pete Buttigieg
- 51:21Speaker 2: winning the Iowa caucus.
- 51:22Speaker 3: Right. Like four days later, you figured out. But the
- 51:25Speaker 3: point being is, as soon as it's clear, if Democrats
- 51:29Speaker 3: win the Senate majority, as soon as it's clear. if
- 51:32Speaker 3: Chuck Schumer announces I'm not running for leader, you know,
- 51:37Speaker 3: I said I was going to bring, I'm not running
- 51:39Speaker 3: for leader. I am, you know, handing, you know, I,
- 51:45Speaker 3: I'm going to step down. This is, you know, I
- 51:47Speaker 3: worked really hard for this and now I want to
- 51:49Speaker 3: set up the party. Yeah. Crowning achievement.
- 51:52Speaker 1: Right.
- 51:52Speaker 3: He would, it would sort of diffuse all of this stuff.
- 51:55Speaker 3: It would give everybody a chance. It was sort of
- 51:58Speaker 3: allow for a reset and a reboot, but, Politicians don't
- 52:01Speaker 3: ever walk away from new power. Nobody willingly gives up power, man.
- 52:05Speaker 3: That's right. They just don't. If he gets a chance
- 52:07Speaker 3: to be Senate Majority Leader again- He's not going to
- 52:10Speaker 3: be able to walk away from it, even though I
- 52:12Speaker 3: think being Senate majority leader while Trump's president isn't that great.
- 52:16Speaker 3: And I think it.
- 52:17Speaker 2: Sets you up for particularly when you're up in that cycle.
- 52:21Speaker 3: You have AOC.
- 52:22Speaker 2: Sitting out there like. But yeah, nobody willingly gives up power.
- 52:25Speaker 2: It's like when people are like, I can't believe Biden's
- 52:27Speaker 2: running again. I was like, of course, Biden's running again.
- 52:30Speaker 2: I don't think folks realize Schumer's vulnerable position.
- 52:33Speaker 3: To any Democrat. I think that's right. Anyone from his left.
- 52:37Speaker 3: She is she would beat him, but he's vulnerable from
- 52:40Speaker 3: anyone from his left. I think I don't even think
- 52:42Speaker 3: it's just from the left. You're just anyone. I think
- 52:45Speaker 3: anybody 25 years younger.
- 52:46Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 52:47Speaker 3: You know, no, I just think he's vulnerable. I mean,
- 52:49Speaker 3: his numbers are not good in the state among Democrats. Like,
- 52:52Speaker 3: let's say AOC said no. And Letitia James said yes.
- 52:55Speaker 3: who would you bet on? Letitia James or Chuck Schumer?
- 52:58Speaker 3: It would be hard. I think it's hard for him.
- 53:00Speaker 2: I think it's, I think he's in a very, and
- 53:03Speaker 2: it's a, it's a close to unfixable problem. Cause I
- 53:06Speaker 2: don't know that the left is going to be like, Oh,
- 53:08Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer won us the Senate.
- 53:09Speaker 3: Correct. You know, he's not, there's nobody, you know, Bernie
- 53:14Speaker 3: Sanders is the only person in his eighties that isn't that,
- 53:18Speaker 3: that isn't at being asked to leave the stage. Right.
- 53:22Speaker 3: And like if Richie Torres announced against Schumer, that would
- 53:26Speaker 3: be a problem. It would be. Yeah. But I can
- 53:28Speaker 3: come up with seven different. I know. Challengers. This is
- 53:31Speaker 3: not just about AOC. Yeah. Right. That's a good point.
- 53:34Speaker 3: And the thing is, again, if you care about the
- 53:37Speaker 3: future of the Democratic Party, taking himself out, taking his
- 53:42Speaker 3: chess piece just simply off the board.
- 53:44Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 53:45Speaker 3: Really does diffuse the left here a little bit. Diffuse,
- 53:48Speaker 3: defangs them a little bit and allows for the younger,
- 53:53Speaker 3: quote unquote, establishment, your Alyssa Slotkins, your Brian Schatz, to
- 53:59Speaker 3: sort of, to define themselves. No, to let a thousand
- 54:05Speaker 3: flowers bloom. Right, to not be defined. The problem for
- 54:08Speaker 3: a Slotkin and a Schatz right now, this next generation
- 54:11Speaker 3: of sort of mainstream Democratic leaders, is that they're, They're
- 54:15Speaker 3: going to be defined by Schumer's politics when really they
- 54:18Speaker 3: need to be establishing their own and having him step
- 54:21Speaker 3: away certainly clears that field a little bit. You know,
- 54:27Speaker 3: we'll see. Like I said, like you said, people don't
- 54:30Speaker 3: willingly do power. No, they just can't. But it would
- 54:34Speaker 3: be the ultimate leadership moment for him. And it would
- 54:39Speaker 3: dovetail with the what is the Democratic Party really debate
- 54:44Speaker 3: that will happen at the.
- 54:45Speaker 2: Presidential race to be a real moment. Well, he would
- 54:49Speaker 2: do something that Joe Biden didn't have the guts to do.
- 54:52Speaker 3: Yep. Right. You know, Joe Biden had to be shoved.
- 54:55Speaker 3: And look at the impact it's had on the Democratic Party.
- 54:57Speaker 3: And I don't know why. I mean, if Joe Biden
- 54:59Speaker 3: walked away after one term, what I would say to
- 55:01Speaker 3: Schumer is, why do you want to be shoved? I know.
- 55:04Speaker 3: Why do you want to be shoved out? You know,
- 55:07Speaker 3: be celebrated. Go out on the wrong note. Go out
- 55:09Speaker 3: on a valedictory note. But they never do. They never do.
- 55:12Speaker 3: It's like athletes. They never do. It's like one more season.
- 55:15Speaker 3: One more season. I get it. But all right. Let's
- 55:19Speaker 3: do sports because the U. Chuck's. I know. I don't
- 55:24Speaker 3: want to be number one in October, brother. It's a
- 55:26Speaker 3: burden to carry.
- 55:27Speaker 2: You've got to break the wind of everybody behind you.
- 55:32Speaker 2: But you won in a battle of the Todd family.
- 55:36Speaker 2: For people who don't know, Chuck's wife is a Florida
- 55:39Speaker 2: State alum. Florida State Miami.
- 55:42Speaker 3: At Hard Rock. It was, yeah. In at least the
- 55:46Speaker 3: first quarter, I watched and I did not know you
- 55:48Speaker 3: were there. I was like, man, anyone who was there,
- 55:50Speaker 3: this must be miserable because it was sheeting down rain.
- 55:53Speaker 3: It was just, well, it was just consistent. And it
- 55:57Speaker 3: was for the entire first half. It did sort of
- 56:00Speaker 3: let up a little bit in the second half. So
- 56:03Speaker 3: the U wins in double overtime. They get the ball
- 56:10Speaker 3: first in double overtime. They score very quickly.
- 56:14Speaker 2: And then they run a trick play where Malachi Toney,
- 56:16Speaker 2: who is absolutely incredible, incredible wide receiver, they run the
- 56:20Speaker 2: halfback option basically to him.
- 56:22Speaker 3: They throw it. He starts running. He then throws a
- 56:25Speaker 3: pass into the end zone for the two-point conversion. Florida
- 56:28Speaker 3: State comes. They have nothing going on. And the kid
- 56:31Speaker 3: bombs it in the end zone. And it looks like Florida.
- 56:34Speaker 2: State has caught it, but they have not. It has
- 56:36Speaker 2: actually been intercepted game over. Miami jumps to number one overall.
- 56:41Speaker 3: Chuck had an interesting experience there with some interesting people.
- 56:45Speaker 3: Florida State wasn't going to win that game. On that play,
- 56:49Speaker 3: the best they could do was tie. No, they would
- 56:51Speaker 3: have had to. And then we were going to go
- 56:52Speaker 3: to these ridiculous sort of– I think we had the
- 56:56Speaker 3: exchange of two-point conversions. Yes, then you just do two-point conversions,
- 57:00Speaker 3: the third OT. Right, you go back and forth. Look,
- 57:05Speaker 3: it was what it was. It's a rivalry game. And
- 57:10Speaker 3: you say yourself before the game, well, it's a rivalry game,
- 57:12Speaker 3: so I expect it to be close. But there's always
- 57:14Speaker 3: a part of you that thinks– you know, we really
- 57:16Speaker 3: should blow them out. Be nice for it to be
- 57:19Speaker 3: 41-0 at halftime. I don't want to be stressed, right?
- 57:22Speaker 3: You know, I have been to some amazing games that
- 57:25Speaker 3: Miami's been involved with, but the more amazing that they're
- 57:28Speaker 3: involved with, the less fun I have attending, right? You're
- 57:31Speaker 3: just a ball of nerves, you know, and it's just,
- 57:35Speaker 3: you're just sort of relieved at the end. But like,
- 57:39Speaker 3: it was so funny. I am so oblivious when I'm
- 57:42Speaker 3: at a game at the end of the day, I'm
- 57:44Speaker 3: just wanting to be, you know, I'm locked in. I'm
- 57:47Speaker 3: actually not the best person to go to a game
- 57:49Speaker 3: with because I really don't want to socialize. I literally like,
- 57:53Speaker 3: you know, I watch the game, right? I don't go
- 57:55Speaker 3: to a football game to socialize. I go to a
- 57:57Speaker 3: football game to watch a football game, particularly Miami football games.
- 58:01Speaker 3: Luther Campbell was sitting in front of me the whole time.
- 58:03Speaker 3: And we have exchanged, like he goes, You look familiar.
- 58:07Speaker 3: And I was like, and I didn't, you know, he
- 58:10Speaker 3: was there with his son. And then it sort of
- 58:13Speaker 3: dawned on me. That's congressional candidate Luther Campbell to you. Oh,
- 58:15Speaker 3: I know. At the end of the thing, he goes,
- 58:17Speaker 3: you know, we follow each other on Twitter. I went,
- 58:19Speaker 3: Uncle Luke. Yeah, that's Uncle Luke. That's Miami royalty. Right, exactly.
- 58:24Speaker 3: And so we had a nice little moment. And then I,
- 58:26Speaker 3: you know, I'm in. all of his videos from the
- 58:29Speaker 3: game have mostly my wife behind him more than me.
- 58:33Speaker 3: And of course, he's in her full Florida State regalia
- 58:36Speaker 3: and the videos. And, you know, one thing about Uncle
- 58:40Speaker 3: Luke's videos, man, they're always very trolly and Florida State.
- 58:45Speaker 3: And he's, you know, he loves his you. That's for sure.
- 58:59Speaker 3: You view it as a mixed blessing. We were talking
- 59:01Speaker 3: before we started.
- 59:02Speaker 2: First time since 2002, Miami has been ranked number one.
- 59:05Speaker 3: Any time in the season.
- 59:07Speaker 2: You'd rather be ranked number one at the end of
- 59:09Speaker 2: the season than in the middle.
- 59:12Speaker 3: Look, obviously, take it for what it is. If you
- 59:18Speaker 3: were to ask me, it's like, do I think we
- 59:21Speaker 3: have proven we're the best team in the country yet? No,
- 59:23Speaker 3: I do not. I can't sit here and say we have–
- 59:27Speaker 3: I think– I do think the most disrespected team in
- 59:31Speaker 3: college football is Wake Forest. I just can't– I just
- 59:35Speaker 3: think they're incredibly disrespected. Yeah, because they haven't been– they
- 59:38Speaker 3: don't have a tradition, so people don't listen to them. Well,
- 59:41Speaker 3: there's no difference to me between Kentucky and Wake Forest
- 59:44Speaker 3: except Kentucky is in the SEC and Wake Forest isn't.
- 59:47Speaker 3: And Wake Forest– I mean, that's all it is. Right.
- 59:50Speaker 3: Once in the SEC, once in the ACC. Right. And
- 59:52Speaker 3: that's the only reason. But Wake Forest is having just
- 59:55Speaker 3: as good of a season and is just as good
- 59:57Speaker 3: of a chance. And I'll throw A & M, my team,
- 59:59Speaker 3: under the bus.
- 59:59Speaker 2: The Kentucky win against A & M looks much less
- 1:00:02Speaker 2: impressive now than it did three and a half weeks ago.
- 1:00:05Speaker 3: So– but look, it is– I will tell you this, the,
- 1:00:10Speaker 3: the game that I'm, I'm big, I didn't know. I
- 1:00:13Speaker 3: wanted Notre Dame to win. I wanted Notre Dame number one.
- 1:00:15Speaker 3: I wanted it with Miami at the number two slot
- 1:00:19Speaker 3: going into South Bend. Um, but no, it looked, I,
- 1:00:24Speaker 3: this is, I'm very curious to see how crystal ball
- 1:00:27Speaker 3: and this team handles it.
- 1:00:28Speaker 2: Right.
- 1:00:28Speaker 3: Which is now everybody's the targets on our back. Yep. Um,
- 1:00:34Speaker 3: the way college football works, everybody is, we may, we
- 1:00:39Speaker 3: may have a massive advantage started a starter, but the
- 1:00:45Speaker 3: depth issue is something nobody has. Nobody has depth. Not anymore. Right.
- 1:00:49Speaker 3: You just don't have the depth you once had in these,
- 1:00:53Speaker 3: in these big time programs. So look on any, on
- 1:00:56Speaker 3: any given Saturday. I mean, that Saturday was amazing. The
- 1:01:00Speaker 3: question is, in the world of a 12-team playoff, let
- 1:01:03Speaker 3: alone a 24-team playoff, the Saturday was interesting, but not decisive.
- 1:01:09Speaker 3: In an era of a 24-team playoff, it just was
- 1:01:14Speaker 3: an interesting day of college football that really has very
- 1:01:17Speaker 3: little impact on who makes it and who doesn't. It's
- 1:01:19Speaker 3: so true. I don't know how we're going to feel
- 1:01:22Speaker 3: about that long-term.
- 1:01:24Speaker 2: You and I are of an age where If your
- 1:01:28Speaker 2: favorite team lost a game, that was it.
- 1:01:33Speaker 3: Almost it.
- 1:01:34Speaker 2: Because the national championship game was almost always two undefeated teams.
- 1:01:38Speaker 3: Or if it was a one-loss team, it was somebody
- 1:01:41Speaker 3: that lost a game in September. Right. On the road
- 1:01:45Speaker 3: to another good team. Right.
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: And now a loss is much less– It is much
- 1:01:50Speaker 2: less disqualifying to lose. Right.
- 1:01:53Speaker 3: In a 12 and certainly in a 20 to 14 playoff.
- 1:01:57Speaker 3: You know, however, coming up when you have these two
- 1:02:01Speaker 3: lost teams playing each other, I mean, LSU is in
- 1:02:03Speaker 3: a playoff game every week right now.
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: Yes.
- 1:02:05Speaker 3: Can't lose again. That's right. I know that feeling. After
- 1:02:08Speaker 3: Miami lost two games in a row last year, you
- 1:02:10Speaker 3: were like, boy, they have an outside shot as it is,
- 1:02:12Speaker 3: but they can't lose again. And oh, when they win,
- 1:02:14Speaker 3: they better win impressively. Yes. You know, you do Notre Dame.
- 1:02:18Speaker 3: I don't think they can lose another game. I don't
- 1:02:22Speaker 3: think they can lose another game. That's probably right. Their
- 1:02:24Speaker 3: schedule doesn't support their schedule. It's just they they have
- 1:02:27Speaker 3: to beat Miami. And I don't I. Is that Notre Dame, Chuck?
- 1:02:32Speaker 3: It's at Notre Dame. Yeah.
- 1:02:33Speaker 2: So that's probably like a toss up game at Notre Dame. Oh,
- 1:02:38Speaker 2: Notre Dame will be– my guess is Notre Dame. Do
- 1:02:39Speaker 2: you think they'll be favored slightly? So the look-ahead line,
- 1:02:42Speaker 2: they've been favored anywhere from six to seven.
- 1:02:45Speaker 3: Well, that's too much. So we've been about a touchdown.
- 1:02:47Speaker 3: I think that's too much because I think on a
- 1:02:49Speaker 3: neutral field, Miami will win. It's a three and a half.
- 1:02:54Speaker 3: My feeling is that means on a neutral, they're saying
- 1:02:57Speaker 3: Notre Dame by field goal, and I disagree with that.
- 1:02:59Speaker 3: I totally disagree. I think it should be three to
- 1:03:01Speaker 3: three and a half. At Notre Dame, meaning it's either
- 1:03:04Speaker 3: a pick-em or Miami slightly favored on the neutral field.
- 1:03:07Speaker 3: I'm going to say something pretty arrogant. I think Miami's
- 1:03:09Speaker 3: better at every single position on offense. Well, Mensah is
- 1:03:13Speaker 3: clearly better, in my opinion, than Carr. They don't have
- 1:03:16Speaker 3: anyone as good as Malachi Toney. I mean, only Jeremiah
- 1:03:18Speaker 3: Smith is better than Malachi Toney, I think. I think
- 1:03:21Speaker 3: our backfield is better. You know more about the defense.
- 1:03:23Speaker 3: I think our receivers are better. So, no, I couldn't
- 1:03:27Speaker 3: say that on the defensive side of the ball, but
- 1:03:28Speaker 3: I am confident, and I think that that's– one thing
- 1:03:33Speaker 3: that Mensa taught me yesterday or on Saturday, I guess
- 1:03:36Speaker 3: it was now is he can handle, you know, he
- 1:03:40Speaker 3: can handle mistakes. Like you want to see what happens.
- 1:03:42Speaker 3: Of course. Arch has struggled, right? When he makes a mistake, he, he, he.
- 1:03:47Speaker 2: I would much rather have Mensa than Arch. And it's
- 1:03:49Speaker 2: not just because I hate UT. I mean, I just
- 1:03:51Speaker 2: don't think Arch has proven it. He looks the part,
- 1:03:54Speaker 2: but when he plays the actual game, I.
- 1:03:57Speaker 3: Have, I have a lot of empathy for Arch and
- 1:03:59Speaker 3: I know other people don't. I really do because nobody,
- 1:04:02Speaker 3: you know, he, He didn't choose to be a Manning. Nope. Okay.
- 1:04:06Speaker 3: So it is what it is. I'd get out of
- 1:04:09Speaker 3: that fishbowl. I mean, look, I think the mistake they
- 1:04:12Speaker 3: made was going to Texas. Yes. I think you should
- 1:04:15Speaker 3: have gone to like Ole Miss. Well. Even then, it's
- 1:04:19Speaker 3: the SEC. But that would have made sense. Yeah. Arch
- 1:04:24Speaker 3: went there. Eli went. I mean, sorry. Archie Manning went there.
- 1:04:26Speaker 3: Eli went there. Right. It is. And I think Cooper
- 1:04:30Speaker 3: went there, right? Or where did Cooper go? He may
- 1:04:33Speaker 3: have gotten Ole Miss, too, because he got hurt. I mean,
- 1:04:35Speaker 3: he did not play football. Yeah, he played briefly.
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 1:04:39Speaker 2: But, yeah, UT is such a– it's the largest NIL
- 1:04:43Speaker 2: school for football.
- 1:04:45Speaker 3: It's, you know, I mean, it's like going to Ohio State.
- 1:04:47Speaker 3: It's just a fishbowl. It's just a fishbowl. And do you–
- 1:04:51Speaker 3: you know, that's the question. There was this– Miami Twitter
- 1:04:56Speaker 3: exploded on Monday over– because some guy on, I guess,
- 1:04:59Speaker 3: CBS's football– college football show– said maybe Arch ought to
- 1:05:03Speaker 3: go to Miami. And it's like, you know, cause Miami's getting, look,
- 1:05:07Speaker 3: one thing about Miami's offensive coordinator is getting a positive
- 1:05:10Speaker 3: reputation of, of making QBs look good. And, and, and,
- 1:05:15Speaker 3: you know, there are different styles of quarterback, Cam Ward
- 1:05:17Speaker 3: to Carson Beck to Darian Mensah. So I certainly think that,
- 1:05:22Speaker 3: that Shannon Dawson has a, is developing a good reputation
- 1:05:27Speaker 3: as a guy who knows how to, how to improve
- 1:05:30Speaker 3: a quarterback's ability to perform. But I don't know if
- 1:05:36Speaker 3: I want Miami with that fishbowl either. It's just a lot.
- 1:05:38Speaker 3: That's the tough thing. for Arch. I assume he doesn't
- 1:05:43Speaker 3: leave the SEC if he transfers. I think that's right.
- 1:05:47Speaker 3: I think that's right.
- 1:05:48Speaker 2: And I think at this point, he's going to have
- 1:05:49Speaker 2: to go to school for one more year to improve
- 1:05:52Speaker 2: his draft stock.
- 1:05:54Speaker 3: I agree. I'd go to Georgia. Apparently, it was Georgia
- 1:05:56Speaker 3: and Texas, right? I think was the... And Georgia will
- 1:06:00Speaker 3: need a quarterback, right? Because what's-his-name is graduating. And I
- 1:06:03Speaker 3: just think that Kirby has a way to... You know, quarterbacks...
- 1:06:10Speaker 3: aren't aren't, you know, automatically becoming great pros out of Georgia. No,
- 1:06:16Speaker 3: it's been a while.
- 1:06:16Speaker 1: Right.
- 1:06:16Speaker 3: Stafford, Matt Stafford. Right. That's a long time ago.
- 1:06:24Speaker 2: I am intrigued at all him potentially transferring to Ole
- 1:06:27Speaker 2: Miss only because Trinidad Chambliss after 42 years in college
- 1:06:30Speaker 2: will be in a, you know, he'll have used up
- 1:06:32Speaker 2: his eligibility.
- 1:06:33Speaker 3: They'll need a quarterback. Yeah.
- 1:06:36Speaker 2: I mean, I'm sure they will make a big play
- 1:06:38Speaker 2: for that. Now, do they have the NIL budget to
- 1:06:40Speaker 2: do it? That's its own set of expectations, right? You
- 1:06:44Speaker 2: go to the school that your grandfather went to and your.
- 1:06:46Speaker 3: Uncle went to. The question is, is it Sark or
- 1:06:47Speaker 3: is it Arch?
- 1:06:49Speaker 2: Right.
- 1:06:51Speaker 3: Yeah. I think you keep Sarkeesian. None of us know
- 1:06:56Speaker 3: the answer for sure. No. But, you know, it's not
- 1:07:00Speaker 3: like Texas fans. There's certainly plenty who look at Quinn
- 1:07:05Speaker 3: Ewer's who was a five-star recruit at Arch, and start
- 1:07:09Speaker 3: to ask, is it Sark? Right. Why are we not
- 1:07:12Speaker 3: better with the talent that we have? Yeah. Well, Miami
- 1:07:15Speaker 3: University is number one. No, they are not. The University
- 1:07:19Speaker 3: of Miami. The University of Miami is number one.
- 1:07:22Speaker 2: Miami University is playing the Ohio Bearcats in the MAAC.
- 1:07:27Speaker 2: Kent State in the MAAC. By the way, alma mater
- 1:07:30Speaker 2: of my wife. The University of Miami, number one. So
- 1:07:35Speaker 2: it's a good day for Chuck Todd. Who do you
- 1:07:37Speaker 2: got currently?
- 1:07:38Speaker 3: Ray's Brewers.
- 1:07:39Speaker 2: Most boring series for people who don't really care about
- 1:07:43Speaker 2: baseball ever, but I like it.
- 1:07:46Speaker 3: Give me the race. It's a good, it's going to
- 1:07:49Speaker 3: be great baseball.
- 1:07:50Speaker 2: You're not going to know very, almost anybody other than
- 1:07:53Speaker 2: junior Caminero and Churrio probably, but right.
- 1:07:56Speaker 3: But let me, let me look, I think the Indiana
- 1:07:59Speaker 3: Oklahoma city comparison is The NBA finals, they got better
- 1:08:04Speaker 3: every game. And by game seven, everybody was engaged. Oh,
- 1:08:06Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a great series. I
- 1:08:08Speaker 3: think the Brewers-Rays have a shot at that. Now, I
- 1:08:11Speaker 3: think Brewers-Guardians might have been a slightly better series to sell.
- 1:08:16Speaker 3: It bothers me that the Rays couldn't sell out playoff games.
- 1:08:20Speaker 3: Do you think they'll sell out the World Series? They should. Yeah.
- 1:08:25Speaker 3: You know why? Because Brewers fans will travel. Yeah. Brewers
- 1:08:28Speaker 3: fans are going to sell out the Trop. Yeah, that's true.
- 1:08:31Speaker 3: If the Trop can't, if the Rays fans can't. I
- 1:08:34Speaker 3: think it's the.
- 1:08:34Speaker 2: Rare example in baseball, especially just because of the, I
- 1:08:39Speaker 2: think they are the two best teams have made the
- 1:08:43Speaker 2: World Series.
- 1:08:44Speaker 3: Shout out to Pete Seat. Pete Seat. Of course. Every year,
- 1:08:49Speaker 3: every year he goes to one World Series game. That's right.
- 1:08:51Speaker 3: Indiana's finest, Pete Seat. He's done it like twice. So
- 1:08:55Speaker 3: good news for you, Pete. the trop is a cheap ticket.
- 1:08:58Speaker 3: I was going to say, he will not bankrupt. It's
- 1:09:00Speaker 3: not Yankees, Dodgers. It's not Dodgers, Yankees, which would have
- 1:09:05Speaker 3: cost him a lot. You might be able to get
- 1:09:06Speaker 3: a really good seat for this one, Pete. Pete seat.
- 1:09:09Speaker 3: Love Pete seat.
- 1:09:10Speaker 2: Shout out to Pete. The Chuck Todd cast three times
- 1:09:13Speaker 2: a week. Follow Chuck. Dynastic, which is the.
- 1:09:18Speaker 3: Sort of athletic. Apologies that we're a little low, a
- 1:09:21Speaker 3: little late. Today, we had to tape early Tuesday rather than.
- 1:09:24Speaker 2: Yeah, we're actually taping day of. So you're getting Chuck
- 1:09:27Speaker 2: and I fresh up.
- 1:09:28Speaker 3: Early in the morning.
- 1:09:29Speaker 1: Grinding.
- 1:09:30Speaker 3: Super fresh. Yeah. You can subscribe on... Apple Podcasts, on iHeart,
- 1:09:37Speaker 3: on YouTube, on Spotify. We hope you do.
- 1:09:40Speaker 2: We've got one more show before the election, one more podcast,
- 1:09:46Speaker 2: and we are going to have a big announcement coming
- 1:09:48Speaker 2: very soon. Two more shows because we tape on Tuesdays.
- 1:09:53Speaker 3: Thank you, Chuck. I forgot about that. That's going to
- 1:09:55Speaker 3: be a weird show. I'm not going to lie.
- 1:09:56Speaker 2: The Tuesday, November 3rd show is going to be a
- 1:09:59Speaker 2: little bit weird because it's going to be, we'll.
- 1:10:00Speaker 3: Do something fun. We'll figure out something fun to do.
- 1:10:03Speaker 3: a and no i'll tell you we'll we'll yeah i
- 1:10:06Speaker 3: mean we'll we'll we'll figure out like uh maybe we'll
- 1:10:08Speaker 3: do a push you know we'll do a if you
- 1:10:12Speaker 3: had to pick on each of these races we'll do
- 1:10:15Speaker 3: something fun we'll figure out something fun to do but
- 1:10:17Speaker 3: it's gonna come out the day of the election we'll
- 1:10:19Speaker 3: pick every race and every nose yeah that'll be fun
- 1:10:22Speaker 3: um we'll even pick the railroad commissioner race in texas
- 1:10:25Speaker 3: we'll bow french hang on um And we've got an
- 1:10:29Speaker 3: announcement that will be coming in the relatively near future
- 1:10:32Speaker 3: about what Chuck and I will be doing on election night.
- 1:10:35Speaker 2: It may come out in between these two, but just
- 1:10:39Speaker 2: stay tuned. We will make you aware of it. You're
- 1:10:41Speaker 2: going to want to tune in. It's going to be awesome.
- 1:10:44Speaker 2: I'm already super excited about it. So we'll see you
- 1:10:47Speaker 2: next Tuesday. And then as Chuck, this is why Chuck
- 1:10:49Speaker 2: is here to correct me when I do dumb things.
- 1:10:51Speaker 2: We'll see you the following Tuesday.
- 1:10:54Speaker 3: While voters are voting so uh super tuesdays check it
- 1:10:57Speaker 3: out subscribe like comment thank you my friend see you
- 1:11:00Speaker 3: brother