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Aileen + Nicole Ban Aaron Gunn | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 2: It's Thursday, October 29th, 2026, and this is Political Capital Daily.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us this morning. I'm Aileen Machel, a
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  Speaker 2: communications strategy consultant and former longtime NDP staffer. Rob Shaw
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  Speaker 2: is off today because elections can really take a lot
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  Speaker 2: out of a person, whether you're running a campaign, volunteering,
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  Speaker 2: reporting on it, or just watching from afar. So rest up, Rob,
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  Speaker 2: and get back at it soon. But I am delighted
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  Speaker 2: to be joined today by Nicole Broussard, longtime federal liberal strategist.
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  Speaker 2: Good morning, Nicole.
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  Speaker 3: Good morning.
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  Speaker 2: Very early morning.
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  Speaker 3: But this train keeps pulling out of the station. This
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  Speaker 3: is not slowing down for any of us. So Rob's
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  Speaker 3: got to like drink some tea, get back on it,
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  Speaker 3: because this is not slowing down for any of us
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  Speaker 3: anytime soon.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, honey and tea for sure. Well, I think this
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  Speaker 2: is the first time we've been on a show together.
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  Speaker 2: So that is super exciting.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, or even on a panel, which is shocking for
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  Speaker 3: the two of us, given how much we yell at
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  Speaker 3: the sky about this stuff. So I'm excited for this
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  Speaker 3: this morning.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm stoked for it. Okay, so what's the big
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  Speaker 2: thing you're hearing about right now?
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  Speaker 3: So definitely when it comes to the NDP transition, I
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  Speaker 3: think that's kind of where we want to kick off today,
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  Speaker 3: because even though there's that postmortem to come and everyone's
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  Speaker 3: still thinking about what the future looks like for this government,
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  Speaker 3: there is still a lot of, I think, like wounds
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  Speaker 3: to lick when it comes to that NDP camp and
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  Speaker 3: really who's going to be taking over that, that interim role.
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  Speaker 3: It's been funny to see the NDP kind of try
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  Speaker 3: to poke holes in like this interim leader with our premier,
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  Speaker 3: but now they're going through it themselves. So they're going
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  Speaker 3: to be a little bit busy picking who's going to
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  Speaker 3: lead the ship for the next little bit. And having
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  Speaker 3: been a federal liberal for a long time, I've seen
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  Speaker 3: my share of interim leaders. I was around 2011 and
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  Speaker 3: 2015 where we had many, many of them as, So
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  Speaker 3: I've got definitely a perspective on what makes a good
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  Speaker 3: interim leader.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, I want to pick your brain on this for sure.
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  Speaker 2: So what do you think is important with an interim leader?
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  Speaker 3: I think it's steady hand. You just need somebody who
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  Speaker 3: knows where all the bodies are buried, has a really
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  Speaker 3: good relationship with the party apparatus as well, has a
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  Speaker 3: really good understanding of the Constitution and has been around
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  Speaker 3: for a really long time who can be kind of
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  Speaker 3: a steady hand to guide people through this and doesn't
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  Speaker 3: want the job. That's the most important thing. They cannot
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  Speaker 3: want the job and have to make that very clear
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  Speaker 3: from the outset because there's always that conversation that takes
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  Speaker 3: place like, oh, well, maybe they could just stick around.
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  Speaker 3: And that creates a lot of confusion for folks. And
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  Speaker 3: so you want to make that choice of somebody who's
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  Speaker 3: really clear that they're happy to take a step to
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  Speaker 3: the side once that new leader is appointed.
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  Speaker 2: Totally. It's a temporary thing to sort of stabilize. Well,
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  Speaker 2: we will see after today, one of the topics that
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  Speaker 2: they're going to be discussing is the interim leader. Does
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  Speaker 2: that mean we will know today who the interim is?
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  Speaker 2: I'm not actually sure about that because it's still early days,
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  Speaker 2: but I am seeing a lot of online and hearing
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  Speaker 2: a lot about it when I talk to new Democrats.
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  Speaker 2: There was one post that I just wanted to talk
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  Speaker 2: about a little bit because it stood out to me.
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  Speaker 2: It's from this longtime activist, former staffer. He currently works
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  Speaker 2: for a private sector union and his name is Josh Marais.
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  Speaker 2: He's the kind of guy who he's been around for
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  Speaker 2: a long time and a lot of people respect him.
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  Speaker 2: So when he posts these thoughtful long form posts on Facebook.
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  Speaker 2: People in the party will pay attention and they'll read them.
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  Speaker 2: So he had previously posted about the campaign. I think
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  Speaker 2: he called it malpractice. He had a lot of critiques
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  Speaker 2: about it. But the one that I saw early yesterday
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  Speaker 2: was focused more on the interim leader choice. And he
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  Speaker 2: had made some of the same points as you. He
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  Speaker 2: called for an elder states person who could command respect,
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  Speaker 2: make room for disagreement, give the next generation space to emerge.
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  Speaker 2: And he also said that, you know, the party needed
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  Speaker 2: someone whose relationships reach beyond the people who already have
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  Speaker 2: a seat at the table. He talked a lot about regents.
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  Speaker 2: So he mentioned the losses in Surrey and Burnaby and
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  Speaker 2: how that should weigh heavily in the decision by the
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  Speaker 2: caucus and by the party for the interim leader. Of course,
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  Speaker 2: because there are really important representatives who have been weakened.
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  Speaker 2: So anyways, he goes on to argue for Raj Chauhan.
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  Speaker 2: And I had not seen that name before. So it
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  Speaker 2: was an interesting post, but a lot of thought that
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  Speaker 2: went into it. And I think a lot of eyeballs
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  Speaker 2: on it. There are a ton of names being tossed
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  Speaker 2: around right now in terms of like elder statesmen. So
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  Speaker 2: you've got Mike Farnworth, for example, who has been a
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  Speaker 2: longtime House leader. Adrian Dix, who has been a leader
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  Speaker 2: before for the NDP in opposition. who also led the
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  Speaker 2: province through COVID-19 with Dr. Bonnie Henry. I've also heard
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  Speaker 2: the name Bowen Ma, who's been in MLA since 2017,
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  Speaker 2: has a lot of energy, intellect. And so there's like
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  Speaker 2: a lot of really strong talent, I think, to choose
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  Speaker 2: from when it comes to interim leaders. And have you
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  Speaker 2: heard any names being tossed around?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I've heard those three names as well. I like
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  Speaker 3: that elder statesman kind of example. I don't know of
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  Speaker 3: having representation from like Surrey or Burnaby or Richmond really
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  Speaker 3: makes a difference when you've got an interim leader I
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  Speaker 3: think the party can do that itself and build up
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  Speaker 3: those EDAs in a way that helps revitalize maybe the
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  Speaker 3: base in those regions so I don't know if I
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  Speaker 3: necessarily agree with this take but um I know the
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  Speaker 3: caucus is meeting today for the first time and I
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  Speaker 3: think while the interim leader will be a focus of
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  Speaker 3: that caucus I think a lot of it will be
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  Speaker 3: uh everybody kind of having a bit of a cry
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  Speaker 3: together as well about what actually happened in the last
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  Speaker 3: 30 days because it's It's really going to be tough
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  Speaker 3: to move on without that time to grieve.
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  Speaker 2: And it is important for them to be able to
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  Speaker 2: come together and experience what has happened, right? Like the
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  Speaker 2: NDP was in government a month and a half ago,
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  Speaker 2: and then they've gone through a challenging election, and now
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  Speaker 2: they are going to be reorienting themselves into official opposition
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  Speaker 2: and working to hold the government to account. So there's
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  Speaker 2: a lot going on there, and I wish them well
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  Speaker 2: in their first election. caucus meeting today. So that's the NDP.
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  Speaker 2: But then there is the new incoming government, the BC Conservatives.
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  Speaker 2: They are in transition. To me, it's been a little
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  Speaker 2: bit of a black box. But what have you heard?
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  Speaker 2: What's happening behind the scenes from your perspective?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so a lot of movement very, very quickly. I
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  Speaker 3: think this BC Conservative team is incredibly motivated to deliver
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  Speaker 3: on the platform that they put together. And so you've
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  Speaker 3: seen Kim Henderson be appointed as the kind of lead
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  Speaker 3: for that transition team. It's a small transition team that
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  Speaker 3: will be taking care of kind of this period. And
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  Speaker 3: I think we'll also see some senior staff being announced
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  Speaker 3: pretty soon. We've got until November 18th when the Ritz
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  Speaker 3: will be returned. And so there's a lot of whiteboarding
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  Speaker 3: and negotiation around who should be in cabinet and out
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  Speaker 3: and parliamentary secretaries and secretaries of state or whatever that
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  Speaker 3: looks like. So we've got a little bit of time
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  Speaker 3: for that. But also given that the premier elect has
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  Speaker 3: mentioned maybe a fall session a couple weeks, they don't
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  Speaker 3: have a ton of time for that. They have to
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  Speaker 3: get together very, very quickly after November 18th to do
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  Speaker 3: the swearing in of all these folks, bring everybody together
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  Speaker 3: and then have maybe one or two weeks of a
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  Speaker 3: session just to capitalize on some of the promises that
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  Speaker 3: they had made and want to introduce some of that
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  Speaker 3: legislation early on. that Premier-elect Lauren Dixon had talked about.
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  Speaker 3: And so I think that's a priority for them in
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  Speaker 3: order to show momentum. I think that's good for British
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  Speaker 3: Columbians to see too, that this government's taking it seriously.
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  Speaker 3: They want to move forward. And it does kind of
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  Speaker 3: harken back to almost like a Mark Carney-esque federal liberal
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  Speaker 3: kind of like, let's get things done movement. And we've
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  Speaker 3: heard a lot about a very similar style in terms
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  Speaker 3: of bringing in folks from the private sector in order
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  Speaker 3: to inform government. I think there'll be a lot of shifts,
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  Speaker 3: obviously on the political side, entirely wiped out, but also
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  Speaker 3: on the deputy minister, the ADM side, bringing in some
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  Speaker 3: of those more senior voices from the private sector to
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  Speaker 3: help fill those roles. because I think there is maybe
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  Speaker 3: a slight level of distrust between some of the folks
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  Speaker 3: that are coming in as brand new MLAs with not
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  Speaker 3: a lot of governing experience and the public service. So
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  Speaker 3: that's a bit of a dynamic that we're really watching
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  Speaker 3: closely about how well that public service can mirror the
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  Speaker 3: priorities that were outlined in the platform to those incoming
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  Speaker 3: MLAs to show that they're on board in order to
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  Speaker 3: keep their jobs.
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  Speaker 1: Right.
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  Speaker 2: And of course, during this period, the consulting business is
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  Speaker 2: going to be quite busy as well, trying to sort
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  Speaker 2: out how all of this is working and what's to come.
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  Speaker 2: I have actually been through two transitions before. The first
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  Speaker 2: was with David Eby when he became premier after Horgan.
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  Speaker 2: And then the second one was after the 2024 election.
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  Speaker 2: And transitions can be wild, right? There's a lot going
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  Speaker 2: on behind the scenes, a lot of tension going staff
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: unsure of what's happening and where they're going, who's going where.
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  Speaker 2: It can be a really exciting time, but it can
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  Speaker 2: also be really stressful just trying to figure out how
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  Speaker 2: to make a new government happen and plan out policy pieces.
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  Speaker 2: from the platform. And so thank you for your insights
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  Speaker 2: on this. It's going to be a really interesting time
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  Speaker 2: for all political watchers in the weeks and months ahead.
• 10:11
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  Speaker 2: back to the show. Okay, so let's take a look
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  Speaker 2: at what happened yesterday. There's not a ton of topics
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  Speaker 2: coming forward compared to what we experienced during the election campaign.
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  Speaker 2: But there was a bit of a kerfuffle around the
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  Speaker 2: North Coast tanker ban. So this came about because of
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  Speaker 2: a conservative bill in the House of Commons. It was
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  Speaker 2: a private member's bill to repeal the North Coast tanker ban.
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  Speaker 2: And we know the tanker ban is one that we've
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  Speaker 2: heard a lot about over the last couple of years
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  Speaker 2: with respect to pipeline proposals coming from Alberta. And what
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  Speaker 2: we saw yesterday was the federal liberals voting this bill down.
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  Speaker 2: So essentially keeping the North Coast tanker ban intact. It
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  Speaker 2: does seem like there was a bit of confusion around
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  Speaker 2: Lauren Dirksen's comments about it in the days leading up
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  Speaker 2: to this. And so I was trying to figure it out. Like,
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  Speaker 2: is he in favor? Is he not in favor of
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  Speaker 2: the tanker ban? Does it even matter because it's not
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  Speaker 2: provincial jurisdiction? What do you think, Nicole?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely. I think the Premier-elect has been very clear
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  Speaker 3: on this, that he will not support a North Coast, well,
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  Speaker 3: he will support a North Coast anchor ban and he
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  Speaker 3: will support the pipeline route as it's currently proposed, the
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  Speaker 3: Pacific Link pipeline. And so that's been a bit of
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  Speaker 3: a departure and an interesting kind of separation between, I think,
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  Speaker 3: this BC Conservative government incoming and the federal Conservative government too.
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  Speaker 3: There's been a lot of, discussion about how closely those
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  Speaker 3: parties are linked, if at all, their internal kind of strife.
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  Speaker 3: You've seen certain campaigners out here in BC called out
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  Speaker 3: by Pierre Polyev for being too left-leaning and all of
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  Speaker 3: that purity test that goes on of who's a real
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  Speaker 3: conservative or not. And obviously this BC Conservative Party is
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  Speaker 3: a bit more of a coalition than I think is
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  Speaker 3: typical across the rest of the country. And so we
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  Speaker 3: are seeing a bit of departure and a bit of
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  Speaker 3: daylight between Premier-elect and Pierre Polyev, which is really good
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  Speaker 3: to see because I think it gives people some comfort
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  Speaker 3: who have kind of recently joined that BC Conservative tent.
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  Speaker 3: It is a little bit bigger. There is room for
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  Speaker 3: that discussion and things aren't so black and white. And
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  Speaker 3: especially as Pierre Polyev is being questioned daily about his
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  Speaker 3: political future and what that looks like, it's smart for
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  Speaker 3: the Premier to create a bit of space and tie
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  Speaker 3: himself more closely to the prime minister at this point,
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  Speaker 3: because that's where the money's coming from, where the projects
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  Speaker 3: are coming from. That collaboration needs to be really, really close.
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  Speaker 3: And we've seen them posting about each other, being on
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  Speaker 3: phone calls together, which is a little bit cute, but
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  Speaker 3: just the premier elect looking at a phone on a table.
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  Speaker 3: And you assumed it was the prime minister on the
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  Speaker 3: other side, but there was a bit of that photo op.
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  Speaker 3: So that connectivity is really good to see between the
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  Speaker 3: two right now, because that does matter for British Columbians.
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  Speaker 3: And as we had talked about in the municipal elections
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  Speaker 3: all the time, you can't really get anything done on
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  Speaker 3: your own here in BC. You have to collaborate, whether
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  Speaker 3: you're municipal politics, provincial or federal, all this stuff needs
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  Speaker 3: to be worked together. And particularly with First Nations, as
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  Speaker 3: we've seen this week with First Nations sitting at that
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  Speaker 3: First Minister's table. So a lot of collaboration needed at
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  Speaker 3: this point. So yeah, it was very interesting to see.
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  Speaker 3: And even premier Lex comments yesterday on, on global BC
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: about what those priorities were going to be in the
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  Speaker 3: first hundred days or so, or even the first 60 days,
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  Speaker 3: very focused on like more of the core issues that
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: British Columbians cared about during this election was affordability and
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: taxes and getting things back on track. And that review
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: of the provinces, provinces finance as well. So yeah, not
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  Speaker 3: a lot of like real outliers when it came to
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: the policy this week. And, um, That's been slower for us,
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  Speaker 3: but still lots going on.
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  Speaker 2: Do you think the North Coast tanker ban issue has
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  Speaker 2: the potential to create a bit of a division for Dirksen, though?
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  Speaker 2: Because we saw Aaron Gunn out yesterday sort of swinging
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: against the North Coast tanker ban. And, you know, he
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  Speaker 2: seems like he's a conservative who has some weight in
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: the province. And, you know, like, Dirksen is obviously, he's
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: trying to, you know, walk this line. But do you
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: think there is a risk there that it causes a
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: bit of division in his caucus or party?
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  Speaker 3: I don't know if that's going to be the thing
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  Speaker 3: that will cause the division. I think there might be
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  Speaker 3: some other ones that will be more of a lightning
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  Speaker 3: rod than that. Aaron Gunn, I don't know. He's an
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  Speaker 3: MP from here.
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  Speaker 1: Cool.
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  Speaker 3: But, like, can I just say, like, fully on the record?
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  Speaker 2: Like, who cares?
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: You can, you absolutely can. All right.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: Okay. Let's, let's talk just a little bit about the,
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: you know, the sort of post analysis of the NDP
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: campaign because of course the election was called by NDP leader,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: David Eby. The campaign did not go the way that
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: the party had hoped and, And so now the party
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: has committed that they want to take a look at
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: everything as they do every single election. It is good
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: to take a look at the campaign, whether it's successful
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: or not successful, and take learnings from it, whether they're
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: good or they're bad. And we saw a statement out
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: from the party this week saying that they're going to
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: take a clear and honest look at the campaign and
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: then also set the timing and process for a leadership race.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: One thing that I noticed, so there's a guy in
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: the party, very well known, Ron Johnson. He's a longtime
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: communications strategist for the NDP, a bit of an NDP historian.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: And I think, you know, he founded a very prominent
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: sort of NDP aligned communications firm as well. He wrote
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: a sub stack where he really takes apart the NDP campaign.
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: And I think this one's going to get some attention
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: in NDP circles as where he critiques not just the
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: election call, but the time leading up to it, you know,
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: things that happened during the session, and also aspects of
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: the campaign, including the narrative, where he critiques them. And
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: it's not the only one, we're seeing lots of new
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: Democrats weighing in at this point, I'm sure we're going
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: to hear more about it in the days, weeks and
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  Speaker 2: months ahead. And I do think that this is important.
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  Speaker 2: And we want to we want to be able to
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: hear some of these things. But it's also important for
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: the party to also sort of reorient to What's ahead?
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: You know, what is the goal moving forward and how
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: do we get into a place to be an effective
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: official opposition and prepare to, you know, to get into
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: the next election whenever it may be, whether it's four
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: years or earlier. But I want to know what you've
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: been hearing and seeing about the NDP campaign post-mortem, what
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: you've seen, what you've heard, what you think of it.
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely haven't been reading sub stacks and Facebook posts.
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: We are deep into the weeds here. Between, I think,
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: a lot of folks, because we're just hyper-political nerds in
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: this world, too, we have been really trying to rack
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: our brains and minds around, like, why this call even
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: happened to begin with and what political math was happening
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: in that back room or pressure was being applied to
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: to make this seem like a good idea. And I
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: know you and I saw each other, I think, the
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: Monday of UBCM, like the Monday right before the writ
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: was dropped. And we were all kind of chatting about, oh,
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: I don't know if this is it. Like, this does
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: not feel like the time. And opposition feels like it's
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: maybe in too much disarray for this to work. You
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: don't need to go right now. And I think for
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: me is the most interesting part of this entire unpacking.
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: It's just who was in the room for those conversations?
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: Who was the sober second thought? Ultimately, at the end
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: of the day, whose decision was it? And it's probably
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: the Premier's decision to go. But that is a bit
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: of the doxing, I think, that is happening right now.
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: And there's a lot of conspiracy theories as well about
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: Evie maybe wanting to crash his own plane with everybody
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: on it here, with all those cabinet ministers a week
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: before they qualified for their pensions, no less. But this
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: is one of the biggest questions I think everybody has.
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: What numbers, what math were you looking at to make
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: this make sense for you? And so I don't know
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: if you have any insight into whose fault this is,
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: but that's the question everybody has.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: I've done some media over the last few days on
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: a bunch of different channels about it. And it is
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: a question that comes up, like, you know, who are
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: the advisors, all of that. And the reality is every
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: politician has advisors, right? But Ultimately, it is the leader
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: who is accountable for the decision and responsible for it.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: And he did take responsibility for it on election night.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: I'm sure that in, you know, the party's review, there
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: will be more that is looked at in terms of
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: the actual election timing. But, you know, the important lessons
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: are about, you know, what does the party take from it?
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: And how do they reorient themselves to be an official
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: opposition leader? and try to prepare for the next election
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: whenever it may come.
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: And that might be on the four-year mark every single
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: year if the BC Conservatives pass their Responsible Government Act,
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: which sounds like it's one of the first big pieces
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: of legislation they want to pass, is the inability for
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: the next premier to call a SNAP election like this.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Cost British Republicans.
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: An $ 80, $ 90 million election on a whim like this.
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: And so, like, I've been through an election before in
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: 2021 federally where we called the election. to get buy-in
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: from voters. And we basically ended up with the same result.
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: And that pissed everybody off, including the staff working that election.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: So it might be a piece of legislation that's well-received
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: by both sides of the aisle when that's introduced.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: And as we started this show, talking about how elections
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: can take a lot out of a person. I hope
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: that this coming weekend that everybody gets to catch up
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: on some rest. and start getting focused for the weeks ahead,
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: the months ahead. I'm sure it's going to be a
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: really busy time. But that's it for the show today.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: And I'm sure that we'll have no shortage of wild
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: content to dig into in the days ahead. Rob will
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: be back tomorrow on Political Capital Prime. Big thanks to you, Nicole,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: for joining us today. And thanks for listening. Make sure
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: you subscribe to keep up with all the latest in
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: BC politics here on Political Capital Daily.