Latest / Mike Check - A College Football Podcast / BIG GAME PREVIEW: HOUSTON VS TEXAS TECH
Transcript
- Jackson: Texas Tech and Houston. A big big twelve showdown. this one obviously could have some some playoff implications. some people may believe with Houston. Line here is seven and a half. This one is it's in Lubbock. Yeah. so Houston's Davis: Friday night game. Jackson: yeah, is a Friday night game. Houston going on the road. It's gonna be it's gonna be tough to win there, but what do you guys got for this one? Davis: Yeah, I think Texas Tech has been pretty disappointing. Houston played Oregon State week one, which interesting enough, Texas Tech played Oregon State last week. So it's only week three and you have a common opponent between both teams. Houston won twenty to thirty-three, and obviously we have on the left Texas Tech 1352. Interesting, interesting margins there. Houston beat, you know, Oregon State by more. Texas Tech is a seven and a half point favorite. So take with it what you will. Matthew Nowlin: Yeah. Yeah, I and I'm I'm high on Oregon State. I think both of those lines were too big against against Houston and Texas Tech and they performed well. I think Texas Tech doesn't have the defense to lean on that they had last year. A lot of their, you know, top players on the front seven are gone. I think they've underperformed. I think everyone dubbed them the the the the Big Twelve champ before the season started and I think they're not quite ahead of everybody as they as they thought they were. and some of these other teams like Houston are catching up. So I think this is a big game. Texas Tech has a home field advantage at night on a Friday. but I think Houston has the talent defensively to stay with them and yeah Jackson: So I found a a few stats for this game that I thought were interesting. So, and I know it's a two-game sample size. They both played, I think, one not so great team, but still, for what it's worth, Houston's offense ranks second in the nation for points per drive and success rate at fifty-nine percent. Texas Tech's offense ranks sixty-fourth. in points per drives and 78 in success rate at 44%. So I mean that's kind of the key for me. Like I know Houston's playing on the road, but like their offense has been significantly better than than Texas Tex. Texas Tech has a somewhat of a quarterback issue in my opinion with Will Hammond. I know you got Castellanos on the bench be interesting to see if they if they turn to him if things go south or if they can't get anything going. Carnell Eggman's been playing well for for Houston. He threw for 305 last game against Oregon State. So I mean he's he's playing fairly well. like I said I know this game's on the road. Texas Tech's defense is not exactly like as Matthew said what we thought they were gonna be, but I I still don't think they're I wouldn't call them a bad defense by any means. They haven't been great at getting after the quarterback, so I think that could be an area that Houston could maybe exploit with Wegman's efficiency passing the ball. I think they could find some open guys and maybe move the ball on Texas Tech and who knows, maybe pull the upset. Davis: So we're in week three now. You know, when you're making picks in week one, you don't have any games to go off of and you have to rely completely on, talent and off season and and you know what the analytics say. And then each week you start to build on what they've done throughout the season. We're only in week three. I know that I have two data points. of weeks to base it off of and Texas Tech has not looked good. And just solely based on those two weeks, all indication says that Houston should cover. But I don't want to throw out, you know, all the work that was done in the off season. I'm gonna rely on what the talent evaluators said about Texas. I think that this is a more talented team. I think that they get right. I think that they cover the seven and a half. Jackson: Is that the same talent evaluators you use to evaluate Oregon, Davis? Matthew Nowlin: Yeah. Davis: Yeah, probably. Jackson: Alright. I'm gonna I'm gonna go the other way. I like Houston. Davis: I'm gonna go with Houston actually. Matthew Nowlin: Yeah. Jackson: I like Houston. I like I like Connor Wegman. I think like I said, I think they'll be able to move the ball. I think Texas Tech has been somewhat exposed, especially in that last game against Oregon State. they're not as good as advertised, in my opinion. I dunno I don't know if they whipped on some of these some of these guys that got out of the portal or some of these recruits. I think the quarterback thing is a problem. I can see it possibly going the other way with it being at home and maybe f them finally getting their feet under their belts. But I like Houston in this one. I think I don't know if they'll win. I think they'll cover the seven and a half. Matthew Nowlin: Yep, I think it's I think it'll be a good game. I think it'll be a close game. I was concerned when they brought Castellanos in, it showed me they didn't really have as much confidence in their quarterback, in Will Hammond as as maybe they they should. And that's concerning for me. I agree, I don't know if I love Houston to win the game, but I think that they have enough talent to compete and to keep it close and you have the hook at seven and a half, so I'll take Houston to to keep it within the seven and a half points.