Latest / Yaron Brook Show / Iran War: Cease Fire, Straits, Hezbollah, Arabs; Tariffs; Orbán | Yaron Brook Show

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Iran War: Cease Fire, Straits, Hezbollah, Arabs; Tariffs; Orbán | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

0:00
Speaker 1: H a lot of the metal principles of.
0:08
Speaker 2: Actually self interest and individual wats. This is the show.
0:21
Speaker 2: Oh hey, everybody, welcome to you on book show.
0:23
Speaker 3: On this.
0:25
Speaker 1: Saturday, April eleven. It's gonna be a quick show today.
0:31
Speaker 2: I am on the I am off to catch an
0:35
Speaker 2: airplane flying to Europe this afternoons, so I forgot to
0:41
Speaker 2: do something quick, Uh just to give you an update
0:44
Speaker 2: on what is happening in the world. And uh yeah,
0:54
Speaker 2: So we'll talk about Ivan, the negotiations, other stuff going on,
1:00
Speaker 2: streets of Homo's all of that, and then we'll talk
1:04
Speaker 2: a little bit. Some new data came out about the
1:06
Speaker 2: effective tariffs and prices. We'll talk a little bit about that.
1:10
Speaker 2: And finally tomorrow is I think tomorrow it's the elections
1:19
Speaker 2: in Hungary, So major elections in Europe with ramifications I
1:25
Speaker 2: think globally and certainly for the United States, but I
1:31
Speaker 2: think across across Europe. Ukraine is watching this very carefully,
1:36
Speaker 2: and of course more carefully than anybody is putin who
1:40
Speaker 2: has a huge vested interest in the outcome of this election.
1:43
Speaker 2: So we talk about the election in Hungary and aubonn
1:47
Speaker 2: and all of that.
1:49
Speaker 1: So that is where we are.
1:55
Speaker 2: So let's.
1:57
Speaker 1: Now.
1:58
Speaker 2: In terms of shows next week, I really don't know.
2:01
Speaker 2: So there won't be a show tomorrow. I'll be flying
2:03
Speaker 2: all day. I guess there's a chance when I get
2:07
Speaker 2: to the hotel late at night tomorrow, if something's happening,
2:11
Speaker 2: I will do a show tomorrow. Is that tomorrow, Yeah,
2:14
Speaker 2: that's Sunday night. There is a chance, but generally it's
2:18
Speaker 2: gonna be touch and go all week. We'll see what happens.
2:21
Speaker 2: We'll see both happens in my schedule. If there's big
2:24
Speaker 2: important news.
2:28
Speaker 1: You know, we will.
2:31
Speaker 2: I will try to get on and give you an update,
2:35
Speaker 2: and that'd be great. On next weekend is the conference
2:39
Speaker 2: at Porto. It's the Island Ironland Conference in Porto, Portugo.
2:47
Speaker 2: I will be there, I see he If that Catherine
2:49
Speaker 2: will be there as well, excellent, and hopefully more of
2:54
Speaker 2: you will be there. If you are there, please come
2:55
Speaker 2: up and introduce yourselves, Please say hello.
2:58
Speaker 1: And that'll be great.
3:00
Speaker 3: Uh.
3:01
Speaker 2: And I'm looking forward to spending some time a couple
3:04
Speaker 2: of days in Porto. It's gonna be quick in and
3:06
Speaker 2: out as always, but I'm looking forward to that.
3:10
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about Ion.
3:14
Speaker 2: So the Iranian delegation, including speak of the House of
3:20
Speaker 2: the Iranian Parliament, who seems to be uh, you know,
3:27
Speaker 2: one of the main leaders in Yuan right now together
3:31
Speaker 2: with the with the head of the of the i
3:34
Speaker 2: uh g C of course to speak of the House
3:37
Speaker 2: is not some moderate politician.
3:39
Speaker 1: This this guy used to be part of the IRGC
3:42
Speaker 1: and is and is a.
3:49
Speaker 2: UH and as part of the leadership team. The leadership
3:53
Speaker 2: team is probably comprised right now of of him, the
3:57
Speaker 2: head of the IRGC, and and probably number of other
4:02
Speaker 2: uh you know, major uh, major ILGC figures.
4:08
Speaker 3: Uh.
4:09
Speaker 2: Anyway, they arrived in Pakistan, they've already gone into meetings
4:12
Speaker 2: and had meetings with the Pakistani delegation, that is, the
4:17
Speaker 2: the Prime Minister Pakistan and the head of the Pakistani
4:20
Speaker 2: Army field Marshal or something something who is really probably
4:25
Speaker 2: really the guy in control of Pakistan right now. It's
4:29
Speaker 2: probably Pakistan is governed by a by the military.
4:38
Speaker 1: Let me block Nate.
4:42
Speaker 2: Uh. He's just gonna come back with another I use
4:46
Speaker 2: it from this channel. I should do it. He'll come
4:50
Speaker 2: back with another thing. I'd like to block him again.
4:52
Speaker 2: All right. Anyway, they arrived, they negotiated, they they've gone
4:57
Speaker 2: into talk to the Pakistani's uh UH Vice President JD.
5:03
Speaker 2: Vans together with Witcoff and Kushna also there. They have
5:12
Speaker 2: met with the Pakistanis. Supposedly there is you know, there's
5:20
Speaker 2: actually discussions, direct discussions between the Iranians and the United States. Now,
5:27
Speaker 2: I think you all know my view of this, and
5:30
Speaker 2: I'll just state it again. Negotiating with evil is always wrong,
5:36
Speaker 2: always a mistake, always.
5:40
Speaker 1: Catastrophic. That is, there's.
5:42
Speaker 2: Nothing for the good to gain from evil. There's everything
5:46
Speaker 2: for evil to gain from good. So negotiations are ongoing
5:53
Speaker 2: and it's unclear what exactly the outcome is going to be.
6:02
Speaker 2: Supposedly the talks have moved past the principal stages and
6:06
Speaker 2: into tactical discussions. The Iranians are demanded before any negotiations
6:12
Speaker 2: start two things. One, a cease fire between Israel and
6:16
Speaker 2: Grizbela that is not being achieved. They did not get
6:20
Speaker 2: a cease fire. They did not get a cease fire.
6:24
Speaker 2: So that's a good sign. I guess that that maybe
6:31
Speaker 2: the United States is not completely capitulating to the Iranians.
6:37
Speaker 2: And then the second thing they demanded before there's any
6:40
Speaker 2: negotiations is that the United States unfreeze Iranian assets.
6:49
Speaker 1: I think I talked about this yesterday.
6:52
Speaker 2: Multiple billions of dollars that are held in places like
6:56
Speaker 2: Ue and other places, and that conflicting evidence about. So
7:09
Speaker 2: this morning I woke up and I opened up the
7:12
Speaker 2: news and Reuters was saying that as a gesture of goodwill,
7:18
Speaker 2: the United States has unfreezed Iranian assets. I thought, God,
7:24
Speaker 2: that is like, if that's true, then this administration is
7:29
Speaker 2: even more pathetic than I thought it was. And this
7:32
Speaker 2: basically gives this basically makes you on when they get
7:36
Speaker 2: billions of dollars to rebuild their military even before and
7:39
Speaker 2: the negotiations even start, this is insane. Within minutes, CBS
7:44
Speaker 2: reports that Retrompe administration is denying that claim and saying, no,
7:50
Speaker 2: we have an unfreezed assets.
7:52
Speaker 1: So who knows? Who knows what is actually going on.
7:57
Speaker 2: Israel and Chris Ballau will be meeting on Tuesday, already
8:00
Speaker 2: had a preliminary meeting, but w meeting formerly on Tuesday
8:04
Speaker 2: to discuss the ceasefire and the long term relationship between
8:08
Speaker 2: Israel and Lebanon. So those are going to be substantial negotiations.
8:13
Speaker 2: Maybe there was enough for the Iranians to to accept
8:20
Speaker 2: given that. So at this point we're just waiting to
8:25
Speaker 2: see what happens in these negotiations. According to Uranian State TV,
8:30
Speaker 2: there are four requirements for you know, for them to
8:35
Speaker 2: I guess to.
8:40
Speaker 1: You know, not to destroy America, not to win the war.
8:43
Speaker 1: I don't know.
8:44
Speaker 2: I don't know what position of strength the Iranians actually
8:47
Speaker 2: have vis a VI vis a V this. We'll get
8:50
Speaker 2: to the Straits of Homares in a minute. I suppose
8:53
Speaker 2: to Irana submitted it's four red lions, one authority of
8:59
Speaker 2: the streets of Homo. I mean, it would again, as
9:07
Speaker 2: bad as this administration is, it would take an act
9:10
Speaker 2: of a unique stupidity and cowardice for them to give
9:14
Speaker 2: the Iranians authority of the states of Hoemoes. And this would,
9:20
Speaker 2: you know, just destroy the Gulf States, the Yoe and
9:29
Speaker 2: the Saudis and the rest of them. I mean, they
9:32
Speaker 2: would so object to this. Unlikely that the United States
9:37
Speaker 2: would give give them US payment of war reparations. Really,
9:43
Speaker 2: the United States and maybe Israel should write a check
9:46
Speaker 2: to the Saudis to rebuild everything that's been destroyed.
9:50
Speaker 1: Again.
9:51
Speaker 2: It would be horrific. And my guess is that this
9:53
Speaker 2: one will be couched as we're not going to pay
9:59
Speaker 2: your reparation. Bit by taking away all the sanctions and
10:05
Speaker 2: unfreezing your financial assets, you'll.
10:08
Speaker 1: Have enough money to build up.
10:10
Speaker 2: So that would be how I think the United States
10:13
Speaker 2: would get would sitestep that one. But payment of war
10:17
Speaker 2: reparations three unfreezing of all blocked Ranian financial assets.
10:22
Speaker 1: I expect that to happen.
10:24
Speaker 2: If there's really a deal for securing a comprehensive regional
10:27
Speaker 2: cease fire that has to do with Lebanon, it's probably
10:30
Speaker 2: in the process of happening in one way or the other. Anyway,
10:35
Speaker 2: probably not an Uranian terms. I don't think Israel will
10:38
Speaker 2: accept any kind of deal with Lebanon that does not
10:40
Speaker 2: include a complete disarmament of Krisbela. But again, we will
10:45
Speaker 2: see now nothing here about any of the American demands
10:50
Speaker 2: missiles nuclear, And it's good that none of the red
10:54
Speaker 2: lines have to do with nuclear. That is, there's no
10:56
Speaker 2: red line here that says we have a right to
11:00
Speaker 2: to postss uranium. There's nothing here that says we have
11:05
Speaker 2: a right to a missile defense system or miss out
11:08
Speaker 2: offensive system, none of that. So who knows, maybe they've
11:13
Speaker 2: realized that that is something they're going to have to
11:14
Speaker 2: give the Americans. But you see, it's worth it to
11:17
Speaker 2: them to pretend, at least to give it to the
11:19
Speaker 2: Americans if they can get control over the Straits of Homos.
11:24
Speaker 1: So let's see.
11:29
Speaker 2: I mean, Trump has indicated that maybe the Uranian can
11:33
Speaker 2: have control over the Straits of Homos, but he wants
11:36
Speaker 2: half of the two million dollar fee to cross the straits.
11:40
Speaker 2: Now again, this will unbelievably piss off the Saudis and
11:46
Speaker 2: other allies the United States has in the Gulf. So
11:49
Speaker 2: I don't see how Trump can accept that. I guess
11:52
Speaker 2: he can. Trump can do anything, and he's dumb enough
11:55
Speaker 2: to do it. But you'd think that the Saudis and
11:58
Speaker 2: everybody else would be a pretty upset. But here's the thing.
12:05
Speaker 2: The Saudis have red lions, I mean the southdist The
12:09
Speaker 2: Iranians have red lines. How can the Ranians have read lines?
12:13
Speaker 2: I mean they have nothing on America. They have no leverage, nothing,
12:20
Speaker 2: not a zip except the Straits of Foremoes, which the
12:25
Speaker 2: United States could open by force if they chose to
12:28
Speaker 2: do so. So the position of the Americans should be,
12:35
Speaker 2: you guys have lost the war. If you continue, We're
12:38
Speaker 2: going to completely dismantle you, including whatever control you think
12:43
Speaker 2: you have the almost straits. Here are other conditions of
12:47
Speaker 2: your surrender. That should be the American stance. I mean,
12:53
Speaker 2: it's l likely that that will actually be the American stance,
12:58
Speaker 2: but that should be the American stance. What else is
13:05
Speaker 2: going on? Here's the thing about cease fires. Right as
13:12
Speaker 2: I said, the only real beneficiary cease fire are the
13:15
Speaker 2: Ranians because they were they were being demolished, They were
13:19
Speaker 2: being taken apart by the Israeli and Americans, and they
13:23
Speaker 2: couldn't resupply, they couldn't get the missile launchers out of
13:28
Speaker 2: the caves because they kept getting bombed. They were being
13:33
Speaker 2: they were literally being dismantled. So in America, on the
13:40
Speaker 2: other hand, could bring in troops while this is going on,
13:43
Speaker 2: could bring in another carrier group which is heading in
13:46
Speaker 2: that direction from through the Atlantic. The United States could reinforce,
13:50
Speaker 2: could could redeploy while everything is going on. Because the
13:54
Speaker 2: country of the United States is not under attack, and
13:57
Speaker 2: none of their roots.
13:58
Speaker 1: Into the United States are under attack. This is fire.
14:05
Speaker 2: The beneficiary of this is fire is clearly clearly Iran. So,
14:12
Speaker 2: for example, according to CNN this morning, I use intelligence
14:18
Speaker 2: indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense
14:22
Speaker 2: systems to the Uranians within the next few weeks. I
14:25
Speaker 2: don't know why it takes weeks, might be days. It
14:28
Speaker 2: might have already happen. I mean, I've seen reports that
14:33
Speaker 2: Chinese airplanes already landing in Tehran, cargo planes with supplies.
14:40
Speaker 2: Why couldn't it be these air defense systems on the
14:42
Speaker 2: air defense systems that descending are not big air defense
14:46
Speaker 2: systems are not like the SAMI defense systems to knock
14:49
Speaker 2: down fighter planes way up in the sky. These are
14:52
Speaker 2: defense systems that are shoulder fired anti air missile systems
14:58
Speaker 2: called man pads. These are very good and a real
15:04
Speaker 2: threat to low flying aircraft like the A ten helicopters,
15:10
Speaker 2: and even Step fifteen was hit probably by one of
15:13
Speaker 2: these when it was flying low. Very difficult to deal
15:19
Speaker 2: with because the airplane is flying low. This is being
15:22
Speaker 2: dispatched from a soldier on a shoulder. You know, it's
15:28
Speaker 2: taught to destroy the launcher or the missiles because it's
15:36
Speaker 2: just an individual. It's not some installation that can be eradicated.
15:41
Speaker 2: These are really bad and this China couldn't have done
15:48
Speaker 2: this without a cease fire, right, what else in terms
15:57
Speaker 2: of cease fire, you know that those tunnels that the
16:02
Speaker 2: Uranians are built inside mountains, well, the missiles and the
16:08
Speaker 2: missile launches that in those tunnels are still intact. Well,
16:11
Speaker 2: the ceasefire gives them time to go in there and
16:14
Speaker 2: start excavating and opening up you know, the the the
16:20
Speaker 2: entrances that have been blocked through the bombing. They can
16:23
Speaker 2: now open us up, which means they can access the
16:25
Speaker 2: launches and the missiles. And when the ceasefire ends in
16:28
Speaker 2: two weeks, and let's say we restart the war, well,
16:32
Speaker 2: Ivan suddenly has access to hundreds, maybe thousands of missiles
16:37
Speaker 2: and lots of launchers that still exist inside those tunnels. Again,
16:41
Speaker 2: they couldn't have excavated while the war was going on
16:44
Speaker 2: because it would have been bombed while excavating. So it
16:54
Speaker 2: just again it doesn't make any sense. It's true that
16:57
Speaker 2: the Earth is also increasing the ploy into the Middle East.
17:01
Speaker 2: Another fifteen to two thousand troops and the eighty two
17:04
Speaker 2: Airborne are being deployed. The USS George Bush carry a
17:09
Speaker 2: strike group is coming in from the Atlantic and from
17:13
Speaker 2: the Pacific. The USS Boxer and the eleventh Marine exdiciary
17:19
Speaker 2: unit are steaming towards Iran, should be there any day.
17:23
Speaker 2: So the US is beefing up its forces. But the
17:27
Speaker 2: US could have beefed up its forces even without a ceasefire.
17:33
Speaker 2: So the reality is that the ceasefire is a huge
17:39
Speaker 2: advantage for the Ranians. It lets them regroup, lets them
17:44
Speaker 2: re establish communications, re establish command of control, lets them
17:48
Speaker 2: re establish their missile units.
17:57
Speaker 1: And it's.
18:06
Speaker 2: Look, it's really, really, it's really I don't get it.
18:12
Speaker 2: I get it. Trump panicked, but I don't get it.
18:19
Speaker 2: I don't get anybody could defend us.
18:20
Speaker 1: It's clearly.
18:23
Speaker 2: A massive hit to US interests. It's clearly a massive
18:26
Speaker 2: hit to any progress that was made during this war.
18:30
Speaker 2: During this war, all right, reminded to ask questions. Reminder,
18:37
Speaker 2: we've got a goal to reach two hundred and fifty hour.
18:40
Speaker 2: Let's try to make the five hundred goal today for
18:44
Speaker 2: over an hour. Will probably go an hour and a
18:46
Speaker 2: half today, so five hundred dollars would be good. Again,
18:50
Speaker 2: probably won't be many shows this coming week, So if
18:54
Speaker 2: you have a budget for the run book show, today
18:56
Speaker 2: is the day to spend it. Jeffy says, let's raise
19:02
Speaker 2: money to buy you on a cat. I mean, let's
19:07
Speaker 2: raise money. I doubt that the money will ever go
19:10
Speaker 2: to buying me a cat. No cat, no cat, I'm
19:15
Speaker 2: not interested in. My wife would kill me. So the
19:17
Speaker 2: combination is just is just not going to happen. All right,
19:22
Speaker 2: What else did I want to say here? Yeah? One
19:26
Speaker 2: interesting thing is when you look at targeting. So we
19:30
Speaker 2: now have charts and maps of all the senior officials
19:36
Speaker 2: that the Israelis and the Americans have killed during this war,
19:40
Speaker 2: and it is it is really interesting. If you put
19:44
Speaker 2: down all the all the senior officials in the IRGC,
19:48
Speaker 2: and he put together all the senior officials in political positions,
19:52
Speaker 2: and then senior officials in the army, what you find
19:57
Speaker 2: is that almost all the targeted assassinations focused on all
20:01
Speaker 2: IRGC leadership.
20:04
Speaker 1: I mean at the very top echelon. They're almost all gone.
20:08
Speaker 2: Right over the June war and today's war, they're almost
20:13
Speaker 2: all gone. In some positions, we were in a third
20:16
Speaker 2: generation of of you know, replacements, because Israel's killed so many.
20:22
Speaker 2: In one case here, you know, in terms of the
20:25
Speaker 2: intelligence commander, all three generations are gone. They killed him,
20:30
Speaker 2: replaced killed him, replaced killed him, and they haven't had.
20:33
Speaker 2: There is no new intelligence commander, so intel commanders obviously
20:38
Speaker 2: were a big factor. But if you look at the
20:39
Speaker 2: senior command, the chief of Staff the Armed Forces is gone,
20:43
Speaker 2: and then chiefs of Staff, and then his replacement was gone,
20:46
Speaker 2: and then the you know, the the deputy of the
20:50
Speaker 2: Armed Forces was.
20:50
Speaker 1: Gone, and then the uh, you know, the.
20:53
Speaker 2: The ops deputy, the intel deputy, the ops deputy.
20:56
Speaker 1: They're all gone.
20:57
Speaker 2: There's one guy in the in the top of the
20:59
Speaker 2: armed force that is still around. That's the Combined of
21:02
Speaker 2: Forces IGC plus the army. And if you look at
21:06
Speaker 2: il GC, you've got the ILGC commander gone, his replacement gone,
21:11
Speaker 2: his replacement not gone yet hopefully soon. Navy commander gone,
21:17
Speaker 2: Security commander gone, Security command of replacement gone. Third guy
21:22
Speaker 2: still around, Besiege commander gone. Until we said all of
21:28
Speaker 2: them are gone, COULDS Force Commander is there's a big
21:34
Speaker 2: question mark about where he is, but pretty much all
21:37
Speaker 2: the other COULDS Force generals are gone. KULDS is the
21:41
Speaker 2: special unit that functions outside of iran of the IRGC,
21:46
Speaker 2: Aerospace commander gone, his replacements still around. Ballistic Missile chief gone,
21:51
Speaker 2: Defense chief gone, Ballistic missile chief gone. The next level
21:56
Speaker 2: down is still around. But what's interesting is huge damage
22:01
Speaker 2: to IOGC. If you look at the army, not a
22:04
Speaker 2: single army commander except that very top bachelon which rules
22:08
Speaker 2: over both IRGC and the army. Not a single army
22:12
Speaker 2: officer from the army commander to the deputy commanders to
22:17
Speaker 2: their army, to the navy, to the air force.
22:20
Speaker 1: This is army, not IRGC.
22:22
Speaker 2: These are two parallel military forces within Iran Army is
22:26
Speaker 2: kept whole, IRGC eviscerated, and clearly the goal here is
22:33
Speaker 2: an aim by the Israelis and Americans, is the hope
22:37
Speaker 2: that the army, which is less ideological, more connected to
22:43
Speaker 2: the Uranian people, the average person, less connected to the Mullahs,
22:49
Speaker 2: to the to the ideologues, to their religious fanatics. I
22:53
Speaker 2: think the hope on the in the US and Israel
22:57
Speaker 2: is that the army ultimately takes control of the country,
23:01
Speaker 2: that the army sides with the people against the ILGC,
23:07
Speaker 2: and that the army is its replacement. Hasn't happened yet,
23:11
Speaker 2: and of course it needs to happen. But by weakening
23:15
Speaker 2: the ILOGC and the besiege, which what Israel and in
23:19
Speaker 2: the United States, have done, it's too bad. They didn't
23:21
Speaker 2: have more time to do more of this. They have
23:28
Speaker 2: created opportunity for the army to fill in.
23:31
Speaker 1: The gap, if you know, if.
23:36
Speaker 2: If that's possible, if they're so inclined, it really is
23:40
Speaker 2: hard to tell what's actually happening inside Iran. We'll see
23:44
Speaker 2: in what's happening in the thoughts of the army General's.
23:47
Speaker 2: My guess is the Masada and the CIA have communications
23:50
Speaker 2: with them, and they're looking for the right opportunity. I hope,
23:55
Speaker 2: I hope, I guess we will see.
23:57
Speaker 1: The CITISFI is not helping, not helping anyway.
24:02
Speaker 2: Some good news, some good news. And here let me
24:10
Speaker 2: start with with Donald Trump tweeting today about trying to
24:15
Speaker 2: defend his position. Right, here's what he says. The fake
24:18
Speaker 2: news media has lost credibility, has lost total credibility, not
24:24
Speaker 2: that they had any to begin with, because of their
24:27
Speaker 2: massive Trump to arrangement syndrome, because sometimes referred to as TDS,
24:31
Speaker 2: they love saying that Iran is winning when in fact
24:34
Speaker 2: everyone knows they are losing. Everyone knows this, and losing big.
24:38
Speaker 2: The Navy is gone, the air force is gone, the
24:40
Speaker 2: anti aircraft apparatus is non existent, Radar is dead, their
24:44
Speaker 2: missile and drone factories have been largely obliterated, along with
24:47
Speaker 2: miss Alan drones themselves, and most importantly, their.
24:50
Speaker 1: Longtime leaders are no longer with us.
24:53
Speaker 2: Praise be Allah to Allah. Now all of that is true.
24:57
Speaker 2: This is why the United States should be winning. This
24:59
Speaker 2: is why ceasefire makes no sense. The only thing they
25:03
Speaker 2: have going is the threat that a ship may bunk
25:07
Speaker 2: into one of their sea mines, which, by the way,
25:11
Speaker 2: all twenty eight of their mind dropping boats also lying
25:14
Speaker 2: at the bottom of the sea. That's probably not correct,
25:17
Speaker 2: but because you could drop their minds from pretty small vessels.
25:23
Speaker 2: We're now starting the process of clearing out the streates
25:26
Speaker 2: of homoes as a favor, so this is important. We're
25:30
Speaker 2: now starting the process of clearing out the states of
25:33
Speaker 2: homoes as a favor to countries all over the world,
25:35
Speaker 2: including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, and many others. Incredibly,
25:40
Speaker 2: they don't have the courage or will.
25:42
Speaker 1: To do this work themselves.
25:44
Speaker 2: Very interestingly, however, empty all carrying ships from many nations,
25:48
Speaker 2: all heading to the United States of America, the load
25:50
Speaker 2: up with oil. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
25:54
Speaker 2: The only really important point here is we are now
26:00
Speaker 2: studying the process of clearing out the straits of Ullmores.
26:02
Speaker 1: Now what does that mean?
26:04
Speaker 2: Well, it turns out it turns out that several US
26:09
Speaker 2: Navy ships have crossed the Straits of Hoemores today and uh,
26:15
Speaker 2: starting with mind clearing operations. That is, the US doesn't
26:22
Speaker 2: have traditional mind sweepers, but it has new modern I guess,
26:30
Speaker 2: unmanned mind clearing equipment that it's not really been tested
26:34
Speaker 2: and this will be its test.
26:37
Speaker 1: So you know, so.
26:41
Speaker 2: We're we're they're going in to supposely to clear the minds.
26:46
Speaker 1: I mean, I hope this story is true.
26:48
Speaker 2: Again, fog of war and all of that, but this
26:50
Speaker 2: seems to be seems to be the case. While the
26:54
Speaker 2: negotiations are going on, you've got the Americans sweeping Uh.
27:01
Speaker 2: Now this is uh you know, Uh, let's see the
27:06
Speaker 2: USS Michael Murphy was one of the vessels to transit
27:12
Speaker 2: and uh, Iranian media is claiming that the vessels turned
27:16
Speaker 2: back uh and and didn't actually cross and are not
27:21
Speaker 2: engaging mine mind clearing operations. Uh. So the Ranians are
27:25
Speaker 2: saying they turned back, they turned back. Uh, but it
27:29
Speaker 2: does look like they are going through without asking any
27:33
Speaker 2: permission from the Ranians. I mean, I hope that's true.
27:38
Speaker 2: That would be a huge positive move. Uh, you know
27:42
Speaker 2: if if they did that, Yeah, I mean what happened
27:47
Speaker 2: was what the Iranians are claiming happened, at least these
27:51
Speaker 2: stories are seen, is that they have lost track of
27:54
Speaker 2: where the mines are. They are claiming that they have
27:59
Speaker 2: dropped a number of mines, but that they don't know
28:02
Speaker 2: where they are anymore. And you know that as a consequence,
28:11
Speaker 2: they can't open the straits as they promised to because
28:15
Speaker 2: they're not sure where the mines are.
28:23
Speaker 1: We it's hard to.
28:25
Speaker 2: I mean, I believe them that they're an incompetent. Remember,
28:30
Speaker 2: they probably threw out the mines off of small boats
28:33
Speaker 2: and got out of there as quickly as possible because
28:35
Speaker 2: otherwise they would have been destroyed by the US, by
28:39
Speaker 2: the US Air Force. So they are mines in the straits,
28:43
Speaker 2: and you know the US Navy is in there clearing it.
28:51
Speaker 2: But at least that's my hope. You know, there's no
28:58
Speaker 2: It really is hard to tell, you know, if this
29:01
Speaker 2: is how accurate any of this is, because of the
29:09
Speaker 2: because of the fog of war, because you get conflicting
29:12
Speaker 2: reports constantly. Supposedly there are some tankers leaving the Straits,
29:18
Speaker 2: but they're all going through Iranian waters, they're all going
29:23
Speaker 2: through the Iranian toll. We still don't have a free
29:28
Speaker 2: movement of ships through the Straits, and the excuse for
29:31
Speaker 2: that is right now, it's mined and we don't know
29:34
Speaker 2: where the mines are.
29:35
Speaker 1: Hopefully the US is.
29:41
Speaker 2: Solving that problem by getting rid of those mines and
29:43
Speaker 2: maybe also entering into the gulf so that they can
29:46
Speaker 2: escort ships out of the gulf, you know, just in case,
29:54
Speaker 2: just in case things resume hostilities, who resume?
30:01
Speaker 1: All right, that'll be I think a really really really important.
30:07
Speaker 2: Uh thing to watch is whether the Iranians are actually
30:15
Speaker 2: freeing up their minds or not. That that I think
30:17
Speaker 2: is going to be to lodge very very much key
30:21
Speaker 2: uh to what to what happens in the negotiations, and
30:24
Speaker 2: to what happens in the days to come. Uh. All right,
30:35
Speaker 2: let's see, all right, you know, there's a lot of
30:39
Speaker 2: talk about Krisbella, a lot of talk about the Iranians
30:42
Speaker 2: wanting us.
30:43
Speaker 1: He's firing Lebanon.
30:44
Speaker 2: I want to I want to walk you through a
30:46
Speaker 2: little bit about Chrisbella, who they are the connection to Ran,
30:50
Speaker 2: because I think this is obscured by much of the media.
30:54
Speaker 2: Why this is so important to Ran and and and
30:58
Speaker 2: all of that. I mean, it's important that chrismoel I
31:02
Speaker 2: was really created in the very early nineteen eighties, right
31:07
Speaker 2: after the Iranian Revolution, as a kind of as a
31:13
Speaker 2: vanguard as outside of Iran force that the Iranian regime
31:19
Speaker 2: could use to export jihad, to basically use to bring
31:28
Speaker 2: countries under their boots, but also to attack the West,
31:33
Speaker 2: to attack the West, and with the idea remember Hominy,
31:38
Speaker 2: and certainly early on in the Islamic Revolution, the idea
31:42
Speaker 2: was Iran, the Islamic Revolution was going to be the
31:45
Speaker 2: base from which they were going to bring the world
31:53
Speaker 2: to heal and they were going to start the domination
31:57
Speaker 2: of Islam over the entire world. And Rismola was the tool.
32:04
Speaker 2: And Rismola was originally primarily targeted at other Arab regimes
32:11
Speaker 2: and at the Americans and the West. You know, Rismola
32:20
Speaker 2: was in order to really establish Lisbella. In June of
32:25
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty two, the ILGC deployed about eight hundred to
32:30
Speaker 2: fifteen hundred revolutionary guards to Lebanon to Baka Valley. This
32:34
Speaker 2: is the east part of Lebanon and the border was Syria.
32:40
Speaker 2: The mission there was to recruit, train, and create a
32:45
Speaker 2: Shia remember the Ranians, a Shia, a Shia militia that
32:51
Speaker 2: would basically function under the Uraniangyme.
32:56
Speaker 1: They were already militant Shia groups.
32:59
Speaker 2: The civil war in Lebanon had been going since the
33:04
Speaker 2: early nineteen seventies and the Shia has had militias. That
33:08
Speaker 2: he was to unify these militians under one entity to
33:11
Speaker 2: be governed by the Ranians, and that organization became Krisbela.
33:18
Speaker 2: It's been around since really nineteen eighty two. In nineteen
33:23
Speaker 2: eighty five it formalized the creation with the Charter, and
33:28
Speaker 2: that charter pledged allegiance to Iran, not to Lebanon. Had
33:33
Speaker 2: no interest in Lebanon. It described in the charter the
33:36
Speaker 2: Ranian regime as the vanguard of a global Islamist state
33:42
Speaker 2: and the purpose of Grisbela was to establish a global
33:49
Speaker 2: Islamic state. Now, at the time no Risbela was going,
33:59
Speaker 2: Israel had occupy much of leban It is well that
34:02
Speaker 2: occupied much of Lebanon. Or to get the PLO out
34:04
Speaker 2: of Lebanon. The PLO had been attacking Israel's northern front
34:09
Speaker 2: for years and Israel had had enough and basically coming
34:13
Speaker 2: to Lebanon to get rid of the PLO.
34:17
Speaker 1: But initially, well I was not that interested in Israel.
34:20
Speaker 2: Of all the attacks early on, there's only one major
34:23
Speaker 2: attack on the Israelis that was in I think so
34:26
Speaker 2: in the south of southern Lebanon, on an Israeli headquarters.
34:31
Speaker 1: It was a suicide, a truck bomb.
34:35
Speaker 2: But if you but really the early on, the major
34:40
Speaker 2: early attacks that isbel I was engaged on were attacks
34:44
Speaker 2: on the Americans, the American embassy, then the American Marines
34:49
Speaker 2: barracks were two hundred and forty four marines, two and
34:51
Speaker 2: forty one Marines were killed. You know.
34:56
Speaker 1: It was also.
35:00
Speaker 3: So what's going on here?
35:03
Speaker 2: But it was also involved in things like trying to
35:11
Speaker 2: assassinate the the EMU of Kwait in nineteen eighty five,
35:20
Speaker 2: and you know, it was focused on trying to undermine
35:26
Speaker 2: anybody who was helping the Iraqis in the Iraq Iran
35:30
Speaker 2: War during the nineteen eighties, there was this massive Iran
35:34
Speaker 2: Iraq war that lasted like in nine years. A million
35:37
Speaker 2: Iranians I think were killed in that war, and the
35:41
Speaker 2: Iranians were trying to distract, trying to undermine any help
35:46
Speaker 2: that might be provided.
35:49
Speaker 1: Might be provided to it.
35:50
Speaker 2: It's only it's only later, around nineteen ninety two that
35:55
Speaker 2: his well recognize the state of Lebanon, because before it
35:59
Speaker 2: was funking as we're for global Caliphon recognize the state
36:05
Speaker 2: of Israel of Lebanon and repositioned itself from a marketing
36:10
Speaker 2: perspective to liberate Lebanon from Israel. What happened generally is
36:18
Speaker 2: that the Iranians discovered I think in the early nineteen
36:24
Speaker 2: nineties the biggest leverage internationally was to position themselves as
36:32
Speaker 2: the great defenders of the Palestinian people and is the
36:35
Speaker 2: biggest enemy of Israel. I don't think that was in
36:40
Speaker 2: the origins. I don't think that was in the origin
36:43
Speaker 2: of the Islamic Republic. I think they viewed it as
36:45
Speaker 2: this is the best kind of the best tool we have,
36:55
Speaker 2: the best tool we have for rallying our people and
37:03
Speaker 2: getting the Arab world. Remember, Uranians are not Arabs the Persians.
37:08
Speaker 2: There are all kinds of the Persians, you know, like
37:12
Speaker 2: thirty percent of them Aretooks. In terms of the tribes,
37:15
Speaker 2: the ethnic origins. They're not Arabs. The Arab bold has
37:20
Speaker 2: always looked at Persians. There's always been, for a very
37:23
Speaker 2: long time, there's been a conflict between the Arabs and
37:25
Speaker 2: the Persians. One way to get the Arabs on board
37:29
Speaker 2: was to position these Uranian Persians as defenders of Arab Palestinians,
37:35
Speaker 2: all under the guys of Islam, the guys of creating
37:40
Speaker 2: a Khaliphod. And indeed, so they became big on liberating Israel,
37:47
Speaker 2: and they Isbela became the primary agent in attacking Israel
37:55
Speaker 2: and of course in committing terrorist attacks across the world.
37:59
Speaker 2: Isbela said operations in Latin America, it blew up, It
38:04
Speaker 2: was responsible for cor bombs in Argentina, in Buenos Aires,
38:13
Speaker 2: you know. And they established themselves while all the other
38:18
Speaker 2: factions in the early nineteen nineties, all the other factions
38:21
Speaker 2: of the civil war in Lebanon disarmed themselves, gave up
38:27
Speaker 2: their weapons, Risbelin never did. And indeed they established themselves
38:33
Speaker 2: as the most significant military force within Lebanon. And because
38:37
Speaker 2: of the Uranian support, even you know, even larger than
38:44
Speaker 2: the Iranian government itself. And during the nineteen nineties they
38:49
Speaker 2: started regularly attacking Israeli troops that were still in Israel
38:54
Speaker 2: in Lebanon. Sorry, in two thousand, Israel withdrew completely from Lebanon,
38:58
Speaker 2: unilaterally left Lebanon completely. The Yuan brought in to supposedly
39:06
Speaker 2: control Chrisbella. That was hopeless and useless. They also in
39:12
Speaker 2: the two thousands started working with the Syrian regime and
39:17
Speaker 2: then later with the Iranian with the Iraqi regime to
39:20
Speaker 2: create Iranian control from Iran through Baghdad to Damascus to Lebanon,
39:28
Speaker 2: and Chrisbella was involved in all of that. Chrismaalao were
39:32
Speaker 2: the people who trained the Iraqi, trained the Iraqi shi
39:40
Speaker 2: had militias, terrorist groups. They're the ones who trained the Huties.
39:46
Speaker 2: They are the ones who became the primary exporta of
39:53
Speaker 2: Iranian ideology, of Iranian force, of Iranian.
39:57
Speaker 1: Power all over the Middle and really all over the globe.
40:01
Speaker 2: Again, they were the ones who bombed the embassy and
40:04
Speaker 2: the Israeli Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, killing you know,
40:09
Speaker 2: hundreds of people, and everybody knows Iwon was behind that.
40:15
Speaker 2: I mean, I suppose that Iran bribed the Argentinian government
40:20
Speaker 2: to not mention that, and the attorney who found the
40:25
Speaker 2: connection between the Kurtzeners and the rulers of Argentina and
40:31
Speaker 2: the Iranian regime and Risbella. His name was Alberto Nisman
40:37
Speaker 2: was ultimately killed. So suppose he committed suicide, but killed
40:41
Speaker 2: in order to keep him silent about the whole thing.
40:45
Speaker 2: So Risbella is part and partle of the Iranian revolution.
40:52
Speaker 2: It is the first organization that Iwan builds outside of
40:57
Speaker 2: ivon itself. It is an integral part of the Iranian
41:03
Speaker 2: goal of Islamic world domination. You can't separate Iran from Chrisbella.
41:10
Speaker 1: It is.
41:12
Speaker 2: They really are a joint one and the same. And
41:21
Speaker 2: you know, this explains the importance, the importance for the
41:30
Speaker 2: you know, the importance for the for the Ranians, Chrisbela
41:35
Speaker 2: is a big part of that, and they will fight
41:38
Speaker 2: for them. And it's going to be interesting whether the
41:41
Speaker 2: Ranians ultimately abandoned Risbela in order to save themselves. So
41:45
Speaker 2: the fact that negotiations are starting in spite of the
41:47
Speaker 2: fact that there's no cease fire, maybe this is a
41:49
Speaker 2: sign of abandoning Chrisbela. Israel is dedicated dismand disbanding it completely,
41:56
Speaker 2: demilitarizing it. The Lebanese government has with Isbela. They want
42:02
Speaker 2: to disband it. They just don't have the tools to
42:04
Speaker 2: do it. I think left its own devices. The Lebanese
42:10
Speaker 2: government would love to sign a peace deal with Israel.
42:14
Speaker 2: It would love to get rid of that and to
42:18
Speaker 2: get Israeli resources, Israeli trade, Israeli technology, and maybe bring
42:24
Speaker 2: back Lebanon to being in the Switzerland of the Middle East,
42:29
Speaker 2: you know, Beirut, to be the Paris of the Middle East.
42:31
Speaker 2: They would love to return to those days, and I
42:33
Speaker 2: think they see the path of returning to those days
42:36
Speaker 2: is a peace deal with Israel and basically Israeli Lebanese
42:42
Speaker 2: corporation in taking apart Isabelah. Isbela is a state within
42:47
Speaker 2: a state. It is in constant opposition to the Lebanese government,
42:52
Speaker 2: and of course because it is constantly attacking Israel, it
42:56
Speaker 2: places the Lebanese people constantly are being threatened by Israeli
43:02
Speaker 2: bombing and by Israeli occupation right now of the whole
43:06
Speaker 2: of the south of Lebanon. So you know, we will
43:13
Speaker 2: see I mean it. The Iranians are insisting in the
43:17
Speaker 2: negotiation that part of the deal isri Isbela survives it
43:24
Speaker 2: ultimately probably will not be up to them.
43:26
Speaker 1: No matter what is agreed.
43:28
Speaker 2: We're probably talking about the Lebanese and israelis making that decision. Remember,
43:33
Speaker 2: right now, south of Lebanon is completely unconnected to the north.
43:40
Speaker 2: Israel's destroyed all the bridges as occupying most of the
43:44
Speaker 2: south of Lebanon. Israel doesn't want that, doesn't need that.
43:48
Speaker 2: It is not ambitious with regard to territory. It's a
43:54
Speaker 2: security zone to prevent something like October seventh happening from
43:59
Speaker 2: leban and from Risbella. As long as Krisbela exists, Israel
44:05
Speaker 2: is going to be in that kind of posture. Risbela
44:08
Speaker 2: has to be disbanded and the Iranians are going to
44:12
Speaker 2: fight that. All right, Just a little bit of background
44:17
Speaker 2: on Krisbela. One more aspect on Juan I want to
44:20
Speaker 2: talk about, and that is the attitude of the Arabs
44:22
Speaker 2: right now towards Ran. That's a pretty pissed Gulf States,
44:28
Speaker 2: upset they've been attacked by Run directly. The Golf Arabs,
44:35
Speaker 2: particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia Bahrain, have been moving
44:40
Speaker 2: towards some form of westernization for a while, not too much,
44:45
Speaker 2: not too fast, but they've been moving in that direction.
44:49
Speaker 2: Their main allies are Western allies. They you know, Dubai
44:53
Speaker 2: has become a major financial center. Many of the people
44:57
Speaker 2: living in Dubai a Westerners and they have no interest
45:06
Speaker 2: have lost interests. Put it that way, in kind of
45:09
Speaker 2: global ji hut. They have elements within their peoples who
45:13
Speaker 2: are still committed to that, and they carefully manage that.
45:17
Speaker 2: For example, they have banned the Muslim Brotherhood with exception
45:21
Speaker 2: of Kato. They banned the Muslim Motherhood from their soil
45:24
Speaker 2: because they don't want that Jihadi view of Islam to dominate.
45:33
Speaker 2: And they are being opposed to youon for years now. Indeed,
45:38
Speaker 2: in many respects, I think the Gulf States or many
45:41
Speaker 2: of the Arab states view Ian as the real enemy,
45:45
Speaker 2: not Israel so much. Indeed, Yui signed a peace deal
45:49
Speaker 2: with Israel, and Saudi Arabia came very close to doing that,
45:55
Speaker 2: So the Arabs are actually quite opposed to stand in
46:02
Speaker 2: opposition to the Iranian regime. If anything, the more adam
46:09
Speaker 2: out about the United States finishing the job than are Americans,
46:16
Speaker 2: because they are the biggest beneficiaries if there is regime
46:20
Speaker 2: change in Iran or Israel's the biggest beneficiary they would
46:24
Speaker 2: be the secondary beneficiary and they are the biggest you know,
46:29
Speaker 2: sufferers if the regime is not completely changed. Their world
46:36
Speaker 2: is having real debate right now. On the one hand,
46:39
Speaker 2: Iran is a fellow Muslim country. On the other hand
46:42
Speaker 2: is that it is a real phone in their sight.
46:45
Speaker 2: Ne'd like to see it gone. And it's really interesting
46:49
Speaker 2: to see some of the debates.
46:53
Speaker 1: That are going on within the our world.
46:55
Speaker 2: And some of the commentary are Iranian intellectuals. I mean,
47:00
Speaker 2: Sunday's commentary is far better coming out of the world
47:04
Speaker 2: than it is within the United States or suddenly among Europeans. So,
47:12
Speaker 2: for example, with this idea of Iran has won, the
47:17
Speaker 2: regimas survived. This is one Arab intellectual or what he writes,
47:23
Speaker 2: what he says. The reg he may have survived, but
47:26
Speaker 2: it is hollow, rodded, penetrated, decrepit, and now it will
47:31
Speaker 2: face its own people face to face after this truce
47:34
Speaker 2: in a week, two weeks, a month, two months, a year,
47:37
Speaker 2: two years, with enormous challenges. Let us assume the opposite,
47:44
Speaker 2: if the Iranian regime had managed to assassinate n'ataielle, the
47:48
Speaker 2: defense minister, the head of intelligence, the head of the Mossad.
47:52
Speaker 1: What would they.
47:53
Speaker 2: Say then, that Iran, that Iran was defeated. When reaches
48:00
Speaker 2: this level of political decay, in political delirium, we should
48:04
Speaker 2: not chase the argument of mad men. We're not going
48:08
Speaker 2: to sit and talk about self evident truths with them
48:11
Speaker 2: to convince the pro Iranians or the Mula regime that
48:14
Speaker 2: it has been defeated. I was not going to convince
48:18
Speaker 2: him because he is not like a man afflicted with
48:21
Speaker 2: color blindness, or he is like a man inflicted by
48:24
Speaker 2: calib blindness.
48:25
Speaker 1: He sees green as red, and.
48:27
Speaker 2: No matter how hard you try to convince him that
48:30
Speaker 2: what he sees is green is actually read, he will
48:33
Speaker 2: not believe you. So the Ranians, you can't reason with him.
48:38
Speaker 2: In other words, anyway, yes, so you know they have
48:53
Speaker 2: a better grasp of what is going on. This regime.
48:57
Speaker 2: The Iranian regime is unbelievably weak. If only Trump understood that,
49:04
Speaker 2: if only Trump understood that. M all right, yeah, I
49:31
Speaker 2: mean he goes this guy goes on to Texas ballah
49:35
Speaker 2: uh and uh and and and and everything else. I mean,
49:40
Speaker 2: really good analysis coming out of the other world about this,
49:44
Speaker 2: and our world generally is is far more realistic as
49:49
Speaker 2: formal opposed now to Iran than probably at any other point,
49:55
Speaker 2: at any other point. Yeah, and indeed they kind of
50:03
Speaker 2: shocked at it, kind of shocked at the weakness displayed
50:08
Speaker 2: by the West. It's clearly they know what's in the
50:14
Speaker 2: west interests and they don't understand why the West is
50:19
Speaker 2: acting against its own interest. Somebody says, as well as
50:29
Speaker 2: political and military wing, Yes they do. They have a
50:32
Speaker 2: political and military wing, started in the early nineteen nineties
50:36
Speaker 2: when they decided to get involved in Lebanese politics. Before that,
50:40
Speaker 2: they weren't interested. And they've developed a political wing. But
50:45
Speaker 2: the only purpose of the political wing is to basically
50:50
Speaker 2: protect the military wing and to project itself into Lebanese
50:57
Speaker 2: politics so that they have.
51:00
Speaker 1: Say in what is happening in Lebanon.
51:02
Speaker 2: And of course the political wing would have very little
51:06
Speaker 2: power if not for the fact that they can back
51:10
Speaker 2: up what they demands in politics with the full force
51:16
Speaker 2: of their military wing, again more powerful than the Lebanese
51:20
Speaker 2: military itself. All right, let's see quickly just about the
51:37
Speaker 2: tariffs and UH inflation. Now I don't like this way
51:41
Speaker 2: of using inflation, but tariffs and price hikes which are
51:46
Speaker 2: captured by CPI by the Consumer Price Index by inflation.
51:50
Speaker 2: It you know, we now have data and we now
51:53
Speaker 2: can see how tariffs have impacted the increasing in prices.
51:59
Speaker 2: CPI I came into three point three percent according to
52:06
Speaker 2: according to the new study, they just came out. TALIS
52:09
Speaker 2: through November raised col good prices by three point one percent.
52:15
Speaker 2: That explains all the excess call good inflation above pre
52:19
Speaker 2: pandemic trends. So any any tariffs that were incurred by
52:26
Speaker 2: retailers were passed on to consumers one to one within
52:32
Speaker 2: seven months. That is, it took some time. They increased
52:35
Speaker 2: prices slowly.
52:38
Speaker 1: But it was all passed.
52:39
Speaker 2: On basically core PC the Producer producer index. Sorry, purchasing consumption.
52:57
Speaker 1: God, what am I doing?
52:59
Speaker 2: Ondnesad piece blanked out personal consumption expenditures. Okay, perch some
53:05
Speaker 2: consumption expenditures. They're w K three point one percent over
53:09
Speaker 2: the last year. Well a big chunk of that zero
53:12
Speaker 2: point eight percent of that was a result can be
53:16
Speaker 2: directly attributed to prices going up as a result of
53:19
Speaker 2: a tariff. Uh you know, you know, pro tariff commentators say, look,
53:28
Speaker 2: we impost TAIS and there's been no fundamental change in inflation.
53:31
Speaker 1: Trend line, well, there has been. There has been.
53:34
Speaker 2: If you look at the trend line properly, clearly inflation
53:39
Speaker 2: is up again as measured by CPI. So some of
53:43
Speaker 2: you don't like that inflation number, that's fine. As captured
53:46
Speaker 2: by the CPI, prices are higher. Now, as I've told you,
53:51
Speaker 2: taffs are not inflationary in the sense that they don't
53:55
Speaker 2: raise prices across the board. They raise some prices and
53:59
Speaker 2: other prices adjust, but in the short run they make
54:05
Speaker 2: things more expensive. And if our basket of goods that
54:09
Speaker 2: is measured by the CPI has a lot of goods
54:12
Speaker 2: that are tariffed, it will be reflected. Now, now it's
54:17
Speaker 2: a one time shock, right, Prices go up and then
54:20
Speaker 2: they stay up. The taft don't keep going up. It's
54:24
Speaker 2: it's a one time shock and prices stay at that level.
54:28
Speaker 2: So you know, inflation might come down as measured by CPI.
54:33
Speaker 2: And now that the dollar of tariff has now been
54:40
Speaker 2: embedded in a dollar of price. Uh so yep. So
54:50
Speaker 2: according to the study, we estimate that the TAFT changes
54:52
Speaker 2: in table want increase personal consumption expenditure prices by point
54:59
Speaker 2: eight percent through February of twenty twenty six, and that passed.
55:02
Speaker 1: Through is effectively complete.
55:04
Speaker 2: Given that the entire effect quantified above is driven by
55:08
Speaker 2: tariff effects on core goods PCE prices, and co goods
55:12
Speaker 2: represent about a quarter of over wall co pcee, our
55:16
Speaker 2: tariff effect can equivalently be stated as boosting core good
55:21
Speaker 2: PC prices through February twenty twenty six by three point
55:24
Speaker 2: one percent. And so it's a huge factor. And uh,
55:37
Speaker 2: there is a costa tariffs. As I told you, the
55:40
Speaker 2: data is coming in. The data is coming in, all
55:45
Speaker 2: right quickly on Victor Oban just to say, just you know, tomorrow.
55:53
Speaker 1: There's a big election. It's the election in Hungary.
55:58
Speaker 2: That would given a Victor open another term as as
56:03
Speaker 2: prime minister.
56:06
Speaker 1: You know Oban, let me.
56:08
Speaker 3: Just get rid of this, all right, let's see.
56:22
Speaker 2: All right. Oban has had kind of two periods of
56:29
Speaker 2: being prime minister. He was first prime minister in nineteen
56:32
Speaker 2: ninety eight to two thousand and two, where he led
56:36
Speaker 2: the Fides Party to victory and he governed for four years.
56:43
Speaker 2: At that time, he governed as kind of a center
56:46
Speaker 2: right generally pro free market, I mean relatively speaking, and
56:52
Speaker 2: you know of a former getting rid of kind of leftist,
56:57
Speaker 2: statist policies. But he lost in two thousand and two,
57:03
Speaker 2: and its conclusion from the loss is and from what
57:08
Speaker 2: he was seeing in the world, was that it was
57:10
Speaker 2: time to abandon the center right and to go much
57:14
Speaker 2: more in a nationalist direction, in an explicitly uncompromising nationalist direction.
57:24
Speaker 1: In twenty ten, he returned as Prime minister, this time.
57:28
Speaker 2: In the election his political party won two thirds, which
57:32
Speaker 2: is a massive majority in a parliamentary system. That super
57:38
Speaker 2: your majority allowed him to reshape the Hungarian political system
57:45
Speaker 2: in kind of lasting ways. He packed the Supreme Court,
57:49
Speaker 2: he adopted a new constitution, rewrote many institutions and election
57:56
Speaker 2: rules tell to him in a way that favored political party.
58:02
Speaker 1: He also allowed.
58:06
Speaker 2: For the takeover of all basically media, all the significant
58:10
Speaker 2: media in Hungary to be taken over by his friends
58:17
Speaker 2: during the period of the twenty tents the twenty twenties.
58:21
Speaker 2: Over the last sixteen years, Auburn has built what he
58:25
Speaker 2: openly called an illiberal political model, strong national sovereignty, hostility
58:32
Speaker 2: to mass migration, emphasis on Christianity and family policy. Hungry
58:36
Speaker 2: is one of these countries that pays you to have
58:38
Speaker 2: more kids. Shockingly, people still don't have more kids and
58:44
Speaker 2: a very comfortational style towards the EU.
58:47
Speaker 1: He has also been from.
58:49
Speaker 2: The beginning a huge ally of Vladimir Putin and since
58:55
Speaker 2: the Ukraine War an antagonist of the Ukrainians and Zelensky Right.
59:05
Speaker 2: His government continued to concentrate power, weaken judicial independence, you know,
59:13
Speaker 2: put a huge amount of pressure on media universities, changed
59:16
Speaker 2: the ownership of media and nonprofits, and basically tilted the
59:21
Speaker 2: political playing field towards in his direction. And this has
59:26
Speaker 2: led to many, many conflicts with the European Union. Hungarian
59:31
Speaker 2: economy during this period is not done particularly well, right,
59:36
Speaker 2: not done particularly well. It lives off of to large extent,
59:39
Speaker 2: off of subsidies from the European Union. During the second
59:45
Speaker 2: period he has been anti markets, anti markets, focusing on nationalism,
59:53
Speaker 2: state intervention, economic nationalism, taking in foreign investments but on
1:00:02
Speaker 2: status terms and manipulated by the state. So what he
1:00:10
Speaker 2: calls politically managed capitalism, Yeah, right, politically managed markets, so
1:00:18
Speaker 2: a real statist. As a consequence, economy's not done well.
1:00:24
Speaker 2: Whatever economic growth they have is a consequence of the
1:00:27
Speaker 2: subsidies they got. And however he made he became famous
1:00:41
Speaker 2: and became a darling of the rights. When in twenty
1:00:45
Speaker 2: fifteen he closed the Hungarian border two migrants migrants were
1:00:50
Speaker 2: coming up from the Bocans from Tokey Syria, Turkey Bocans
1:00:56
Speaker 2: Hungry and then from Hungry going to Germany. He completely
1:01:00
Speaker 2: closed the border and would not allow the Muslim migrants
1:01:03
Speaker 2: into Europe and became like he was defend in the
1:01:06
Speaker 2: name of Christianity. He was defending Europe. He made Christianity
1:01:12
Speaker 2: a big deal in those days and became kind of
1:01:16
Speaker 2: a hero of the right for having blocked the path. Now,
1:01:21
Speaker 2: the reality is none of these migrants wanted to stay
1:01:24
Speaker 2: in Hungry. They just needed to go through Hungry to
1:01:27
Speaker 2: get to Germany. Germany was giving them checks, welcoming them
1:01:30
Speaker 2: with Czechs and housing. But he presented it us as
1:01:42
Speaker 2: if he were saving Hungarian civilization for whatever that is
1:01:46
Speaker 2: on Garian culture.
1:01:47
Speaker 1: But really what he was saving was Germany.
1:01:50
Speaker 2: Anyway, became a darling and his whole illiberal the idea
1:01:54
Speaker 2: of illiberalism, the idea of religion being huge, the idea
1:01:59
Speaker 2: that Hungary had a Christian identity, the Christianity was part
1:02:04
Speaker 2: of the national purpose, that the culture was not neutral,
1:02:08
Speaker 2: that the government was not neutral, that what he wanted
1:02:10
Speaker 2: was a Christian Christian government that tilted towards Christianity. All
1:02:16
Speaker 2: of that made even a darling of the right, including
1:02:19
Speaker 2: the American right. Auban became a model for kind of
1:02:24
Speaker 2: the post liberals, the illiberal American right and global right,
1:02:29
Speaker 2: and he became a hero for them. As a consequence, JD.
1:02:32
Speaker 2: Vance just a few days ago, was in Hungary basically
1:02:36
Speaker 2: campaigning for Aubon. I mean, think about that, the Vice
1:02:40
Speaker 2: President of the United States is going to European democracy
1:02:44
Speaker 2: and campaigning for one side over the other. Now, the
1:02:51
Speaker 2: reason JD. Evans went to Hungary is because polls are
1:02:55
Speaker 2: suggesting that, uh, that Oban is going to lose big
1:03:04
Speaker 2: time to a political party on the center right that
1:03:10
Speaker 2: is much more dedicated to free markets run by Peter
1:03:14
Speaker 2: Mayaga Maggia, who is likely to be the next Fime Minister.
1:03:23
Speaker 2: And as a consequence, uh, you know, uh JD. Vance
1:03:28
Speaker 2: rushed to help his friend, his ally, his role model,
1:03:35
Speaker 2: Obon with the elections. What's funny is that since uh
1:03:46
Speaker 2: you know, since h he visited, since JD. Evan's visited,
1:03:52
Speaker 2: Oban's popularity has tanked completely.
1:03:55
Speaker 1: It's dropped off a Cliff.
1:03:58
Speaker 2: So it turned out the JD events that exact opposite
1:04:02
Speaker 2: of what we what he was supposed to do in
1:04:04
Speaker 2: terms of in terms of potentially helping Aubon.
1:04:09
Speaker 1: Uh, it really looks right now.
1:04:14
Speaker 2: Like Auban's political party is going to lose his majority,
1:04:19
Speaker 2: that Tizva, which is the opposition party sent a right
1:04:23
Speaker 2: opposition party, will have a majority in parliament and we
1:04:33
Speaker 2: will know more, I guess at the end of the
1:04:36
Speaker 2: day tomorrow. It's important to note here Auban is loved
1:04:42
Speaker 2: by Trump, JD Vance, the the the Integralists, the Catholics,
1:04:49
Speaker 2: the Maga crowd, the more intellectual Maga crowd put in
1:04:56
Speaker 2: the AfD in Europe, all the right wing.
1:04:59
Speaker 1: And yet since he.
1:05:03
Speaker 2: Came to Vound twenty ten, Hungary has fallen from the
1:05:06
Speaker 2: world's thirty first freest country to number sixty seven in
1:05:11
Speaker 2: the Cato Fraser Institute Human Freedom Index. So economic freedom
1:05:19
Speaker 2: massive decline since Obon came into power. This is the
1:05:23
Speaker 2: impact of the new Right. So the country is less free,
1:05:36
Speaker 2: less economically successful, completely crony. Public money has flowed to
1:05:45
Speaker 2: oligochs close to power, and you know, firm's close days
1:05:54
Speaker 2: political party. We're getting the government contracts, nobody else was,
1:06:00
Speaker 2: and today Hungary ranks alongside China, Cuba, and South Africa
1:06:05
Speaker 2: on this on corruption scales, it used to be relatively
1:06:07
Speaker 2: uncorrupt and it's become massively corrupt over time. So this
1:06:15
Speaker 2: is the guy, This authoritarian, statist, crony, poor and pro Russia.
1:06:31
Speaker 2: This is what JD Vance was lobbying. Four four. If
1:06:38
Speaker 2: you look at gdpeople capital of Hungary as compared to
1:06:43
Speaker 2: other Eastern European countries post communism, they were doing the
1:06:49
Speaker 2: same as everybody else for a while, like they were
1:06:54
Speaker 2: up there with Estonia and Hungary and Poland and everybody
1:06:56
Speaker 2: else inters of progress. And from twenty ten they have
1:07:02
Speaker 2: basically stagnated. And you know, I've done unbelievably poorly since then.
1:07:12
Speaker 2: And again, this is who jad Evans chose the fight for.
1:07:21
Speaker 2: This is who he chose to go campaign for. Pretty disgusting.
1:07:31
Speaker 2: All right, guys, let's move to super chat. That was
1:07:34
Speaker 2: the news for the Saturday, April eleventh. We'll go to
1:07:38
Speaker 2: the super chat. I'll remind you we need to kind
1:07:41
Speaker 2: of make out numbers, and we're farfit. We're not We're
1:07:44
Speaker 2: not even at the first hour goal. So if there's
1:07:46
Speaker 2: anybody out there who could do stickers. Stickers would be
1:07:50
Speaker 2: great because we have a time limit on questions. Fifty
1:07:55
Speaker 2: dollars stickers, twenty dollars stickers, two dollars stickers.
1:07:58
Speaker 1: Whatever you can support.
1:08:00
Speaker 2: Show, show value for value, trade with me, that would
1:08:03
Speaker 2: be amazing. So please if you can step in and
1:08:08
Speaker 2: support the show and show that you value what you
1:08:12
Speaker 2: are consuming. M Hungary and Bulgaria the most corrupt countries
1:08:19
Speaker 2: in the European Union, but huge ally of the Americans,
1:08:25
Speaker 2: even though they support Russia, which is an enemy of
1:08:27
Speaker 2: the United States. But huge, crazy, crazy crazy. All right,
1:08:34
Speaker 2: let's jump into the questions. Almosa, whoops, what did I
1:08:38
Speaker 2: do there? Alamos says, Taco Trump Trump always chickens out. Yeah,
1:08:45
Speaker 2: I mean often it's good that the chickens out. Like
1:08:48
Speaker 2: when he chickens out over tariffs and stuff, that's good.
1:08:50
Speaker 2: When he chickens out over winning a war, that's bad.
1:08:54
Speaker 2: That's bad. Michael, calling someone racist anti Semitic doesn't stop
1:08:59
Speaker 2: them in their tracks like it used to. Now people,
1:09:03
Speaker 2: uh were where it is a bad where it is
1:09:06
Speaker 2: a badge of honor. It shows the level of hatred
1:09:09
Speaker 2: and desire for destruction out there, I think absolutely right.
1:09:13
Speaker 2: I mean it's it's it's a really really sad and
1:09:15
Speaker 2: pathetic state state of the world that we have right now,
1:09:19
Speaker 2: where you know, both on the right fall right and
1:09:22
Speaker 2: the fall left, anti semitism and and even racism explicit
1:09:27
Speaker 2: racism is one as a badge of honor, is something
1:09:30
Speaker 2: that they that they think makes them cool. It's a
1:09:34
Speaker 2: sign of coolness among young Republicans now to be cutting edge,
1:09:39
Speaker 2: to be you know, pushing the envelope, to be radicals
1:09:43
Speaker 2: by being racist and anti Semits. It's fascinating to me
1:09:46
Speaker 2: how radicalism on the right hand, on the left, it
1:09:50
Speaker 2: really involves being a reactionary going backwards in time. So
1:09:56
Speaker 2: today young Republicans are just becoming like you know, the
1:10:00
Speaker 2: eugenesis of the early part of the twentieth century, and
1:10:04
Speaker 2: and like the you know Nazis and racists of uh
1:10:09
Speaker 2: Germany or the racists.
1:10:10
Speaker 1: Of the of the of the old South.
1:10:12
Speaker 2: On the left, the radical leftists like they think communism
1:10:17
Speaker 2: is cool again, that's old communism is like Marxists like
1:10:20
Speaker 2: old stuff. I mean, the cool new, truly radical, untried
1:10:28
Speaker 2: is rational self interest and capitalism. That's what's really cool
1:10:35
Speaker 2: and radical and counter cultural. Join us in the cultural
1:10:41
Speaker 2: cultural movement. That's pro capitalism. That's how we need to
1:10:44
Speaker 2: position ourselves. We are the true counter cultural counter cultural movement,
1:10:50
Speaker 2: the avant God.
1:10:51
Speaker 1: We are the avant God. Michael.
1:10:54
Speaker 2: People would rather blame a third party like as well
1:10:57
Speaker 2: as the Jews than decide there's something wrong with the
1:11:00
Speaker 2: faith they put in their leaders, in their leader Donald Trump. Yes,
1:11:04
Speaker 2: it's much easier to blame the other, remember Donald Trump
1:11:08
Speaker 2: one on that basis, I'm blaming the other for all
1:11:11
Speaker 2: of America's problem, the other being Chinese or immigrants or whatever. Clark, whoever,
1:11:20
Speaker 2: is only interested in tearing things down or in discrediting others,
1:11:24
Speaker 2: is not interested in anything good. Yes, I mean that's
1:11:29
Speaker 2: basically the essence of envy. And yes, you don't build
1:11:35
Speaker 2: by tearing. And now sometimes you have to down something
1:11:39
Speaker 2: to build something better. But almost all the people interested
1:11:43
Speaker 2: in tearing stuff down are only interested in tearing stuff down,
1:11:46
Speaker 2: and they have no positive agenda, no pro civilization agenda.
1:11:53
Speaker 2: They're not interested in the building, They're interested in the
1:11:56
Speaker 2: destroying liam Civilization endures through learners, not followers. Yeah, and
1:12:11
Speaker 2: a civilization shouldn't't do civilization should grow, should improve I mean,
1:12:16
Speaker 2: that's the essence of civilization is growth, growth spiritually and
1:12:20
Speaker 2: growth materially, growth in knowledge, growth in science, growth in wealth.
1:12:26
Speaker 2: But that you cannot achieve with followers. You cannot achieve
1:12:30
Speaker 2: that through secondhanded.
1:12:33
Speaker 1: Apple jack.
1:12:34
Speaker 2: If the straits told are to be paid in cryptocurrency,
1:12:39
Speaker 2: I think this could be Trump puffiteering off the lives
1:12:42
Speaker 2: of US servicemen and the greatest defense in history. Well,
1:12:48
Speaker 2: if he owns that cryptocurrency, I think that they're actually
1:12:51
Speaker 2: not doing crypto.
1:12:52
Speaker 1: What they're doing is.
1:12:55
Speaker 2: Is stable coins and stable coins a back by US treasuries.
1:13:01
Speaker 2: It's hard to make money unstable coins. But yeah, if
1:13:05
Speaker 2: if Trump somehow benefits from this, if Trump family sometimes
1:13:08
Speaker 2: benefits from this, yes, this will be master profiting over
1:13:12
Speaker 2: the lives of US soldiers, the lives and the effort
1:13:17
Speaker 2: of US soldiers. That will be unbelievably disgusting. But they
1:13:21
Speaker 2: won't change. The people who love him love him, doesn't
1:13:24
Speaker 2: They don't. Budge Katherine says, I will be in Porto
1:13:28
Speaker 2: at Okon too excellent, looking forward to it. Uh, misunderestimate
1:13:36
Speaker 2: what is the difference between the US negotiating with Iran
1:13:38
Speaker 2: with evil Iran and Israel doing the same with Lebanon
1:13:41
Speaker 2: and Ramas.
1:13:42
Speaker 1: Shouldn't both be opposed rigorously?
1:13:44
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean, well, there's a difference with Lebanon, but
1:13:48
Speaker 2: I agree with Ramas. I was always against Israel negotiating
1:13:51
Speaker 2: with Kamas, always against every negotiations, even even third party negotiation.
1:13:57
Speaker 2: Now Israel did not do face to face negotiation with Kamas.
1:14:01
Speaker 2: The United States is face to face with in Iran.
1:14:03
Speaker 2: But I don't think that matters is those should have
1:14:06
Speaker 2: never negotiated with Kamas. Ever, you don't negotiate with terrorists.
1:14:12
Speaker 2: I agree with you completely. Now Lebanon is different. Lebanon
1:14:17
Speaker 2: is a state that coross state is not, you know,
1:14:24
Speaker 2: at war with Israel, and it's not an evil regime.
1:14:28
Speaker 2: It's an impotent, incompetent regime, but it's not evil like
1:14:33
Speaker 2: ran Or Ramas. If Israel is negotiating with risbe La,
1:14:38
Speaker 2: I would condemn it completely, just like that condemned negotiating
1:14:42
Speaker 2: with Kamas. But supposedly they're not. They negotiating with Lebanon,
1:14:47
Speaker 2: the Lebanese government, and then negotiating with them the dismantle
1:14:51
Speaker 2: Chrisbella and to actually achieve peace. So there's a difference
1:14:55
Speaker 2: between Lebanon and Iran. Lebanon is not an aggressor. Iran
1:15:01
Speaker 2: is Lebanon as a government, does not have blood in
1:15:05
Speaker 2: his hands. Iran does, and do and Ramastas and and
1:15:10
Speaker 2: I don't believe in negotiating with any of those guys.
1:15:15
Speaker 2: Not you have a j algorithm. I read doctor Peakoff's
1:15:18
Speaker 2: article defending Ice. Anyway, I don't.
1:15:21
Speaker 1: I don't like to put down Leonard, so.
1:15:26
Speaker 2: He doesn't. Not you have a jogorithm doesn't like it,
1:15:32
Speaker 2: and he gives him a past because of age. You know,
1:15:35
Speaker 2: I wouldn't do that. Just you know, it's like a peacoff.
1:15:38
Speaker 2: I don't agree with that article. That's all I'm really
1:15:41
Speaker 2: going to say about it. I have no interest in
1:15:44
Speaker 2: in saying anything negative about Leonard. I owe him too much, right, uh, Catherine.
1:15:53
Speaker 2: I am raising money for the cat too. Maybe he
1:15:57
Speaker 2: changes his mind. I have female male coon cat and
1:16:03
Speaker 2: I have female Maine coon cat and she is awesome.
1:16:10
Speaker 2: So female cat.
1:16:12
Speaker 1: Which is coon? I don't know where the coon cat is?
1:16:15
Speaker 2: But anyway, Yeah, I'll never change my mind. The things
1:16:18
Speaker 2: I will never change my mind about. Some things that
1:16:20
Speaker 2: I will change my mind. Things that will never change
1:16:22
Speaker 2: my mind.
1:16:24
Speaker 1: Michael.
1:16:24
Speaker 2: Michael says, is this ceasefire just pretend to catch the
1:16:28
Speaker 2: Iranians off? God? Trump seems like a never ending harasser. Maybe,
1:16:36
Speaker 2: but I don't think he will break the ceasefire. Uh.
1:16:42
Speaker 2: Maybe it's to use the opportunity to clear the straits
1:16:45
Speaker 2: from the mines. Maybe, and it's not in the fire.
1:16:49
Speaker 2: Maybe that's possible. I don't know, but we'll see. I
1:16:53
Speaker 2: think watching the clearing on the mines is the most
1:16:56
Speaker 2: interesting part of this, Paul. How would Levin be able
1:17:01
Speaker 2: to sign a peace treaty with Israel? Since Isabelle's part
1:17:04
Speaker 2: of the government. I think ultimately is well I would
1:17:06
Speaker 2: have to be kicked out of the government. They're not
1:17:08
Speaker 2: a necessary part of the government in the sense that
1:17:10
Speaker 2: the government right now is kind of a national unity
1:17:12
Speaker 2: government that includes all the different factions. I think ultimately
1:17:17
Speaker 2: they would be kicked out. But it's going to be
1:17:20
Speaker 2: interesting to watch and see what actually happens. And m
1:17:27
Speaker 2: do you recall saying rally with the left versus Ice? No,
1:17:31
Speaker 2: I actually remember saying, try not affiliate yourself with the
1:17:36
Speaker 2: leftist knots while still opposing Ice in any way you can,
1:17:44
Speaker 2: And I've been clear about not going out there and
1:17:52
Speaker 2: what do you call it demonstrating on No King's Day?
1:17:55
Speaker 2: Because you shouldn't rally with the left because there's such crazy.
1:18:01
Speaker 2: But somebody, I think misrepresents exactly what I say to Leonard,
1:18:07
Speaker 2: and Leonard believes that I said rally with the left
1:18:10
Speaker 2: versus Ice. But anyway, you know, there's a clip of
1:18:18
Speaker 2: you saying okay, So there's a clip of me saying it,
1:18:21
Speaker 2: So I don't remember saying it, you know, in a
1:18:25
Speaker 2: moment of passion. Maybe actually maybe I said that, But yeah,
1:18:28
Speaker 2: I mean in Minnesota, I was I think that we
1:18:34
Speaker 2: should have gone after Ice. And if that meant implying
1:18:38
Speaker 2: that you rallied with the left, so be it.
1:18:41
Speaker 1: But I clearly.
1:18:42
Speaker 2: Also differentiated and talked about separating yourself from the left
1:18:46
Speaker 2: in other clips, So maybe I was inconsistent around that.
1:18:50
Speaker 2: But anyway, that is all that was. That's all Leonard
1:18:54
Speaker 2: hood is that one clip.
1:18:57
Speaker 1: Anyway, there's a clip of me saying that.
1:19:00
Speaker 2: I'm sure people made an effort to find it and
1:19:03
Speaker 2: to put it out there into it without all the
1:19:06
Speaker 2: other clips that maybe conditioned that statement. Duyne, how can
1:19:15
Speaker 2: you like, this isn't the US withdrawing unilaterally from.
1:19:20
Speaker 1: Jack POA.
1:19:22
Speaker 2: And wasn't is all the biggest proponent of this withdrawal?
1:19:27
Speaker 2: What is the United States withdrawing from? One second, the
1:19:37
Speaker 2: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action known as the Round Nuclear Deal?
1:19:42
Speaker 2: I mean the United States withdrew from that in when
1:19:46
Speaker 2: was it in twenty twenty eighteen? So isn't the United
1:19:53
Speaker 2: States with drawing UNI lot of me from JA? They
1:19:55
Speaker 2: did that in twenty eighteen. Jack PAA hasn't been in
1:19:58
Speaker 2: place since twenty eight The first Trump administration with drew
1:20:02
Speaker 2: and Isral was never proponent jackpaw. Oh, they were a
1:20:07
Speaker 2: proponent of itch with dual. Yeah, I mean it's good.
1:20:10
Speaker 2: Jack Paul is a disaster. It allowed the Uranians basically
1:20:16
Speaker 2: to achieat while you know, to very loose, very weak,
1:20:23
Speaker 2: what do you call it, monitoring two in hiding, develop
1:20:26
Speaker 2: nuclear weapons and after ten years to go all in.
1:20:30
Speaker 2: It allowed them access to uranium and to uranium enrichment facilities.
1:20:35
Speaker 1: Jack PAE is a disaster.
1:20:37
Speaker 2: So I am glad that the United States drew from
1:20:39
Speaker 2: it in twenty eighteen, and this should have been done
1:20:44
Speaker 2: way before that. In terms of military action, I've never
1:20:49
Speaker 2: been a support of Jetpa. Even when it was signed
1:20:52
Speaker 2: by Abomba. I thought it was an abomination, absolutely abomination.
1:20:59
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I think Donato bug Gali sculpture Love is
1:21:05
Speaker 2: Blind is beautiful.
1:21:07
Speaker 1: Have you seen it? What are your thoughts on it?
1:21:11
Speaker 2: If I've seen it, I don't remember it, So let
1:21:14
Speaker 2: me pull it up the beauty of the web. Uh,
1:21:25
Speaker 2: there it is. Yeah, I mean I think that is
1:21:33
Speaker 2: quite beautiful. I don't like the theme love is not Blind,
1:21:36
Speaker 2: but it's it's in Mailbournes.
1:21:38
Speaker 1: I haven't seen it.
1:21:41
Speaker 2: I'm just looking at a photo of a photograph of it.
1:21:44
Speaker 1: It is.
1:21:45
Speaker 2: It is quite beautiful. Yeah, it's it's it looks like
1:21:55
Speaker 2: it's a marble sculpture. It's quite beautiful. But I don't
1:22:00
Speaker 2: like the theme of it, Love is not blind, shouldn't
1:22:02
Speaker 2: be blind? H marrabans on my channel, I teach that
1:22:08
Speaker 2: my husband and I form a mixed household because he
1:22:13
Speaker 2: prefers the Euclidean proof of Pythegorean theorem and I prefer
1:22:20
Speaker 2: Baskarah the seconds Love is love triangles. Yeah, I mean
1:22:26
Speaker 2: that's a pretty mixed household. God, how do you how
1:22:29
Speaker 2: do you live with such a you know, fundamental disagreement?
1:22:37
Speaker 2: That's great merra beans, thank you, thank you all the
1:22:40
Speaker 2: super chatters really really appreciate it, thanks to the support guys. Again,
1:22:44
Speaker 2: not sure exactly when the next show will be, but
1:22:47
Speaker 2: I will. I will try to let you know and
1:22:50
Speaker 2: post about it, and uh we will we will see. Yeah,
1:23:02
Speaker 2: I'll see soon.
1:23:03
Speaker 1: Bye everybody,