Latest / Triple Da Money / Why You Shouldn't Buy OpenAI, SpaceX, or Anthropic Stock

Transcript

Why You Shouldn't Buy OpenAI, SpaceX, or Anthropic Stock · Triple Da Money

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_02: Emily, I found a labu-boo at Goodwill for three dollars.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: Three dollars?
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_02: Yep, three dollars.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_02: I thought they were like 300 bucks.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: They were six months ago.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_02: So it's not gonna make me rich.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Brandon, you just explained our entire episode.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: Guys, SpaceX is going IPO, OpenAI is going IPO, and Anthropic is going IPO.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Guys, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are going IPO.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: I'm buying everything.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Triple Demoney.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Brandon.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: I just bought a$3 Laboo at Goodwill.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Austin and I'm about to be rich.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Emily, and none of these things are as good as they sound.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, wait.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: IPO.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_01: It means important purchase opportunity?
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: Initial public offering.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: A private company sells shares to the public for the very first time.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: Austin, did you just I Googled it this morning.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: He's right.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, they're all private.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: You can't buy their stock.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: IPO, that means they're public and they're letting the regular people in.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_02: That sounds amazing.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: Why is it bad?
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: Because by the time they let you in, everyone cooler than you has already gotten their shares.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_02: Oh no.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Venture capitalists, hedge funds, wealthy insiders, they've been invested for years.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: The IPO is when they say, Here, public, take the rest of it.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: So we're getting leftovers?
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: You're getting goodwill laboo boo.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: They're getting blind box, limited edition at retail.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: I am the laboooboo.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, Emily, don't IPOs always pop on the first day?
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: I buy it, it pops, I sell it, free money.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: According to data going back to 1980, the average IPO pop on the first day is 18%.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: 18% on the first day?
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_02: Austin is right, that is free money.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Except you're not getting it at IPO price.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: By the time you click buy, the big guys with supercomputers have already bought up all the stock within a millisecond of trading.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_02: Wait, a millisecond?
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: A hedge funds computer can execute a trade within one one thousandth of a second.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: By the time you see the trade load on your screen, they've already bought, popped, and sold.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_02: They have computers faster than my hands?
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: Oh.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: So you buy the IPO at the already popped price, and then The Laboo Boo goes to goodwill.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: The Labooo Boo goes to goodwill.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, give me the worst examples.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_02: I need to feel it.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: Rivian, an electric truck company.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: It IPO'd at$78 a share in 2021, and it popped at$106 by the end of the first day.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: That is incredible.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: Within a week, it was$172 a share, and the company was worth$153 billion.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_02: That's more than a country.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: The company was more valuable than Ford and General Motors combined.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: And the company was making almost zero dollars in revenue.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: None?
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: Basically none.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: Just vibes and promises and then goodwill.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: As of 2026, Rivian is worth 19 billion dollars.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: Down 88% from its peak.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_02: From 153 billion to 19 billion?
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: GoPro IPO'd at$24 a share in 2014.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: A camera on your head?
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody went crazy.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_02: I've seen a bunch of those on eBay for like 20 bucks.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: The stock is now worth about a dollar, down 95% from its peak.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: The GoPro is the laboo-boo.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I don't buy every IPO.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: He's learning.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, Emily.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: SpaceX is different.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: They land rockets.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's not dreams, that's science.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: SpaceX is currently valued at$1.75 trillion.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_02: That's a lot of zeros.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic combined are valued at about half of Japan's stock market in more than Canada's.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_02: Bigger than Canada.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the price you'd be paying at IPO for future profits that may or may not even happen.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm buying hopes and dreams?
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: You're buying hopes and dreams at Canada prices.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: I can't afford Canada.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: The data backs up too.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: The Renaissance IPO ETF, a fund that specifically invests in US IPOs, has consistently underperformed an SP 500 index over time.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: So buying boring index funds beats buying the hottest IPOs?
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Every single time.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_01: We're the laboooboo guys, Austin.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: We're the laboo boo guys, bro.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_02: So what do we do when SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public?
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Wait at least a year, let the hype die, and let real financial data catch up to the dream.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Then look at whether it's actually worth what it's asking.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: And if it's still strong after a year?
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe, but just know that your boring index fund already captures the best companies growing in the world.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: So you don't need to gamble on the first day.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_02: So the move is to not be the person camping outside of the store and waiting to buy the labu boo when it first drops.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: Correct.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_02: Wait, did anyone actually do that?
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: I sat in a car for three hours trying to get one for a friend.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_02: Emily.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_02: Emily?
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: It was a gray one.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody wanted gray.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: Now I have a laboo boo and a lesson I will never forget.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_02: What's what's the lesson?
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: Don't buy the hype.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: Wait for the goodwill price.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: Don't buy the labo boo at full price.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: Don't buy the IPO at full hype.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: And the lesson is the same.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: Don't buy the hype, but hit the hype button.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: We're triple the money.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: And if you bought a labu boo and are thinking about buying an IPO, you should really subscribe.