Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 7/17/2026 | Smoke, Heat, And Wheat Markets Under Stress

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 7/17/2026 | Smoke, Heat, And Wheat Markets Under Stress · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to AgSquawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here with Ag Bull Media.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: Today on this smoky Friday morning, we're going to talk about that move that we saw in Kansas City wheat on Wednesday.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Not to mention, if you looked at NASDAQ 100 lately, man, we'll get to all of that here in a bit.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: Lean Hogs closed with one in front of it yet again at$100.28.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Basically unchanged there.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: There was some green in the back months of hogs, but necessarily kind of mostly unchanged throughout the day.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: On to our weather discussion.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: If you haven't looked out your window in the Midwest yet this morning, uh it's gonna be a surprise for you.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sure most of you have.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: It is smoky up here.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: I have some friends up in Minnesota, and they're saying that businesses are starting to close up there because of the bad air quality, and it is really smoky here just south of Chicago where we're at.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: So our thoughts and prayers go up to our friends north of the border in Canada for the wildfires they're fighting up there.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, if you're affected by air quality, make sure and stay safe here the next couple of days.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: But on the actual rain and temperature type of weather, we're gonna see 195 degrees develop across South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas today.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: You can kind of see that uh on the hot, dry part of that precipitation chart we have brought to us by Mr.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Craig Solberg.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Wheat areas are gonna be really stressed, especially that spring wheat.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, the northern plains rainfall runs below normal with storms tracking south of major spring wheat areas.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: So make sure and pay attention to those that spring wheat market, and we'll get to some more of that wheat discussion here in a bit.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: With what happened on Wednesday was really, really crazy where we saw a limit up.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's all because Russia and Ukraine had an escalation of more conflict there.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: They closed shipping in the Azov Sea and limited exports by like 70 or 80 percent in the Black Sea.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: And man, it's an international market because they're they're interchangeable products, even though it's way over there, and a rising tide brings up all ships.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why we saw that happen.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: I kind of forgot to bring it up yesterday, and I was kicking myself.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I probably should have talked about Kansas City wheat, but you know what?
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: We had a good soybean discussion instead, and I got to it today.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: On the livestock discussion, Mr.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Sands put this chart up in our morning newswire from Nesvik Trading.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: June, all fresh retail beef hit$9.64 a pound.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: That's nearly 12% above a year ago, and everyone's saying, Oh, the price of ground beef is too high, the price of ground beef is too high.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: But if you really study that chart and where that yellow one meets the red one, we've kind of seen a plateau just a little bit.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, the price is high, but it's kind of leveled off and held consistent.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: And the reason it has is because demand has still held.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: Demand indicators remain incredibly resilient there.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: So the price of ground beef is holding for now.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: If you haven't checked the outside markets, the NASDAQ futures, the Nasdaq 100, fell 2% as global chip sell-off continues.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: That was as of CNBC this morning.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: It happened yesterday, overnight, and into this morning.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: Over fears that artificial intelligence spending weighed on sentiment and dragged global tech stocks lower.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: You know, AI, tech, and computer chips are really driving markets right now.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: That is completely undeniable.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: And maybe we just went up too hard and too fast, spent too much money on data centers and AI and investing in these companies that were growing.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: So with that, you're gonna have some growing pains.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: And we saw that in the NASDAQ overnight.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm looking at it right now on our charts from plus 500 T4.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: As of right now, the September contract is at 28,679, going down just a little bit as we speak here at 718 this morning.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: If you're like, hey, Jed, I don't watch the NASDAQ every day.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: I don't watch the price of oil every day.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: Every now and then I check on and the meats or the grains.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: But I'd like to stay informed when something major like that happens.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I encourage you to join us on the premium side.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: 25 bucks a month or 250 annually.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: You can join the AgBull team.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: And why you would stay updated, you ask?
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: So we send out text updates.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Whenever there's a major swing in maybe an outside market like that, Tommy's great of staying on top of that.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: And we'll tell you if there's something major happening that's not that's outside of the norm.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: So I highly encourage you to join us at AgBull Media.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: You get a plethora of stuff, but those text updates for those of you out there in production agriculture are super handy when it comes to staying informed.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: With that, that's all I have for you today.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching and thanks for listening.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and tune in to Mr.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: Davis Michelson this afternoon.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: He's gonna have Jared Dillon on.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a commodity trader and you've ever read the Daily Dirt Nap, uh, Jared's the author of that.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: He's a book author as well as a DJ and a commodity trader.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: So we're really looking forward to that interview.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jid Sidwell with AgBull Media.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.