Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 44: Week 12 College Football Betting Preview

Transcript

Episode 44: Week 12 College Football Betting Preview · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

0:00
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, at your favorite time of week,
0:03
you download the Crazy Sheet, you get you something cold to drink, snuggle
0:07
up, and you get ready to talk about some college football. I'm marking.
0:10
I'm here in the college football podcasting studio. Scotty of course is back
0:14
out on the road, and we are gonna try to go out it just
0:17
one more time. Brother, How the hell are you, man? I'm
0:19
good. I'm just traveling a little bit, getting ready for the holidays.
0:24
It's gonna be gonna be nice. Bulldogs fired a coach Saturday night. Maybe
0:29
the first time ever that the team that lost by forty one fired their coach
0:34
and the coach that won by forty one fired their coach. It was pretty
0:40
interesting. Not surprised Jim Bud's gone. Maybe equally as surprised as I am
0:46
that Zach Garnett got relieved. I was not surprised about Zach Garnett. You
0:51
and I talked about this a couple of weeks ago off air, and I
0:55
think they kind of it was an odd situation. It wasn't working, and
1:00
I think them firing him. I think he's a great defensive coordinator. I
1:03
think he's got a chance to be a really good coach. I just think
1:07
it was a bad circumstance and he was over his skis trying to coach your
1:11
first job effort in the sec West. I mean that's like saying it's say,
1:18
hey, man, what have you been doing while I was in charge
1:19
of baggage claim? Okay, good, We're gonna give you Continental. We
1:23
want you to take over as CEO. And trust me, you just figured
1:26
it out. You'll be fine. I mean it would be so difficult to
1:29
get that Jimbo. I mean that is like, so I'm gonna be fascinated
1:34
A and M's interesting to me because I think there is going to be a
1:40
lot of interest in that job. And while there clearly is no shortage of
1:42
money, it tells you they got limited funds like everybody else does. In
1:48
that there's just limit is bigger than most people's or they'd paid or they'd write
1:53
Jimbo a couple of checks and be done. That they're paying us out at
1:57
seven and a half million dollar increments for eight years tells you a lot.
2:00
Yeah, and that is you know that coming out of the general athletic Well,
2:06
let me explain something that limits how much you can offer the next guy.
2:09
You start paying a guy nine million dollars. Again, that's sixteen and
2:14
a half million a year and head coaches salary. That's a lot of money.
2:17
Yeah, that is a lot of money. And when you start talking
2:22
about over, I mean, that'd be what I think Their athletic revenue slash
2:28
budget last year was two hundred and twelve million, I think if I'm remembering
2:30
right, So let's call it two hundred and twelve million. You're talking five
2:35
percent. When you start talking about a sixteen and a half million dollar number,
2:39
it's a big number, you know, So I only I think I
2:45
think that number. I think that you know, I think that number adds
2:49
up when you start talking about that on coaches salaries, that's a big number.
2:52
You remember a few years ago when we were doing this and we were
2:55
just enamored it how much money Charlie Weiss was making for not coaching, And
3:01
now you're not even talking about that. It's just it's so crazy. Jimmy
3:06
Sexton and Scott Boris, you don't know who they are. Google him and
3:09
look him up. Those guys are geniuses at changing the game, and kudos
3:15
to them, man, I mean they figured it out, and they have
3:17
gotten a lot of coaches mediocrely that are mediocre, huge contracts. And not
3:24
only that, they have figured out ways to pit these schools against each other
3:29
so that they feel like they need to give out these crazy extensions. Well
3:32
that's it, Jimbo. The reason, the only reason they know, oh,
3:36
Jimbo forty million, is because they were dumbass enough after the COVID year
3:39
to up this contract to nine million and renew it back to ten because they
3:44
were scared of LSU was gonna get him, Let us us hit the road.
3:47
He wasn't doing a damn thing anyway. The only good year that guy
3:52
had was COVID yep. Otherwise he has been worse than Mike Sherman. Oh
3:58
that's so funny. Hey, But I will talk about one thing since we're
4:00
talking about coaches and by the now we're recording this on Wednesday afternoon evening and
4:03
everybody's hurt. But I was impressed with the University of Michigan last week.
4:10
I think them suspending Harball first off is total bullshit. That would not happen
4:15
in the SEC That would be something that they would talk about after the season's
4:18
over. In my personal opinion wouldn't. Yeah, and and and on top
4:24
of that, I think that they have they galvanized Michigan in a way that
4:29
it was obvious to me what Harball's done up there is He's created a culture
4:34
in a sense to where do we need a head coach? Yeah? Do
4:38
we need one on the field on Saturday? No? You know why because
4:41
my team can lead and those guys can go out there and play and get
4:44
it done. They dominated Penn State. Penn State had that little burst at
4:47
the beginning of the game, and past that, they just dominated Penn State
4:51
inside and out. When the when the defensive tackle ran down Singleton from behind,
4:57
I got the angler. Wow that kid, and you talk about more.
5:02
There's some NFL guys like, I'm glad you saw that because I hadn't
5:06
talked to you about it. But I was watching that live and I was
5:09
like, son of a bitch, did you see. I mean, he's
5:12
moving through people swimming and yeah, And I mean I was impressed with Michigan
5:19
and you know, and I said it going in. I was like,
5:20
look, this is a good football team. And I think that what they
5:25
did just it pulled him together as a tighter unit. They've got the Michigan
5:29
against the world attitude and I'm not against that. And you see that type
5:33
of culture. You saw it Bama when Bama was successful. And you know
5:38
what, Nick Saban, it was it last year or the year before,
5:41
he didn't see it. And he made the comment to it about say it's
5:44
like, why aren't we chanting? Why aren't we singing before games? Where's
5:46
that fire that was in there? And you saw some of the older players
5:49
come back on these guys and being like, what the hell's going on down
5:53
here? Guys? This isn't this isn't Bama, this isn't who we are.
5:56
And you take Kirby Smart and he's really the only guy that has been
6:00
able to come out from underneath Nick Saban and be successful. But he took
6:04
over a damn good football program in Georgia. I mean, Mark Rick was
6:09
this close, right, it was running ten games a year. Yeah,
6:13
And so all he did was take what he learned from Saban, installed a
6:15
little bit of himself and he's created that same exact culture in Georgia. And
6:20
you can say, hey, they haven't played anybody in comparison to other teams,
6:25
but you know, you don't lose brock Bayers for a couple of weeks
6:28
and a quarterback from last year that's been with you and then and your offense
6:31
is just still. I mean, Lad McConkie, that guy is so fucking
6:35
good man. I don't care where you put him on the field. He's
6:39
a mismatch. And this week watch they're gonna move him inside against Tennessee.
6:42
They're not gonna leave him out there on the on the end with those big
6:46
ass corners that Tennessee has. They're gonna move him into the slot. And
6:48
what people don't realize is that guy all you're doing is you're watching him run
6:53
past you because he is so quick, his routes are so good and and
6:57
he's open all the time. And you get him and Buyers on the field
7:00
together and it's just a delight because those guys can go. That's exactly right.
7:04
It's it's interesting to see Georgian and look you talk about you talking about
7:10
losing all the guys, I mean l a half the Philadelphia's Eagles defense as
7:14
Georgia guys. Yeah, that is they have got they've got a machine going
7:19
over there. And it does feel like to circle back to what you were
7:25
saying about Michigan that they are kind of plug and play. They're kind of
7:29
getting some of that in in there, and they're doing it with not the
7:32
hype on signing day that everybody else is. They don't get the hype that
7:39
a lot of these other schools do. But boy, they're putting some good
7:42
players out too, and there's some guys that that can do some things.
7:46
So I'm I like what Michigan's doing. I'm stunned they I should say,
7:50
I'm stunned because honestly, I think some of the coaches are taking advantage of
7:56
a new athletic director, I mean a new commissioner and the picked in putting
8:01
some pressure on him and things like that. This is a bad precedent,
8:03
buddy, Yeah, I mean bad president. If you're the coach at Minnesota
8:09
or one of these other schools, you don't want to see this because then
8:13
it's an allegation and boom, you're suspended and things aught to have to play
8:18
out. So I mean, look, here's the bottom mind we to talk
8:22
about this. It's turning out that mel Tucker's been fired for bullshit. I
8:28
mean some of the stuff that that girl's those text messages have come out if
8:31
this was a scamp. She did this knowing she was going to end up
8:35
being able to get money. And you know, he just picked a bad
8:39
person to basically have an affair with, and she took advantage of it.
8:45
And at the end of the day, mel Tucker's going to win that money
8:50
in court and the Michigan State's gonna have to pay for his attorney's fees that's
8:52
coming. It's a bad president to start firing guys and lay in and putting
8:58
guys off before you know everything that's happened. Do I think Jim Harball is
9:03
guilty? Yes? Do I think they were Yes? Do I think every
9:07
other coach would do it when they're feigning outrage, You're damn right I would
9:11
if they had a guy who figured out Michigan system that thinks they wouldn't do
9:16
it. The story the story that Illinois told that Burt Bilma told about Fits
9:22
at Northwestern saying the signals were coming over their headset, they were on the
9:28
same channel. And hell because time aunt tells him that wouldn't happen with five
9:35
people. Oh, by the way, they just fired Fits for you know,
9:41
for basically lack of character for pretty much so interesting that it was him.
9:46
I thought that was a really fascinating story. But the bottom line is
9:48
most of these coaches wouldn't do that. They talk about the integrity of the
9:52
game and all of that if their ass it wants to win, and do
9:58
they fracture a rule because, let me explain something, they are all cheating.
10:03
Now. The nil's kind of taking that out of this. Sure before
10:07
that, Make no mistake, every one of those dudes was bending the rules.
10:11
Yeah, anybody we didn't do that, you're too big of a dumbast.
10:15
I know they were doing it. No, I agree. I agree.
10:18
One more thing I want to talk about from last week, because like
10:20
I said, it's so far gone by now. If you're listening to our
10:22
podcast, I'm assuming you know more about college football than the average joe,
10:26
just because we kind of get in the weeds sometimes. But one thing I
10:30
thought was interesting. I misread the North Carolina DO game completely and obviously that
10:35
was a big ass setup. I haven't seen one of those since the Nevada
10:41
Texas Tech game in Lubbock a few years ago. But some group came in
10:45
heavy when that line opened and pushed that lnumber over fourteen and a half and
10:50
they must have seen something, they knew something. And I'm not saying there
10:54
was people getting paid. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying they had
10:56
a better read on this than anything. And then on Saturday they came back
11:00
in and pounded Duke on the other side of that line, and you saw
11:03
that number just cave as it went on. I think it closed at twelve
11:05
eleven or twelve. And it's a bad read by me. It's probably the
11:09
worst bet I made in a long time, and I've made some bad ones,
11:13
but the only worst bet it would have been if I actually had bet
11:16
Arkansas last week, because holy shit, did they look terrible against that Alfred
11:20
football team. Wow, that was amazing how bad they looked. But look,
11:26
I had the worse miss read I think I've ever had last weekend with
11:28
Georgia State and Appalachian State. I mean, there was no excuse for Georgia
11:33
State. It might look better than they did, but you know that is
11:39
that is gambling. That's why I call it gambling. So we got to
11:41
jump in because we got to play Scotty. It's maction. Maction has been
11:46
really rough this season, but it's Thursday. We got our first play on
11:48
the board. Miami Ohio is at home. They will clinch the se the
11:54
MAC East tonight if they win against the Buffalo team. Current line is seven
11:58
and a hook to lay it or are we gonna ride with Buffalo? And
12:01
please tell me we're not because they are fucking terrible. I'm not riding with
12:05
Buffalo. You consider me out. I like me some some Miami Ohio here.
12:13
I think, look, this number is kind of moving the wrong direction.
12:16
But Miami has been has been pretty good at home. Uh, what
12:22
they've done is really taking it to the better teams in the MAC. This
12:26
not being one of the better teams in the MAC, and I think that's
12:30
exactly what happened. Yes, they've lost their quarterback, but he's a good
12:33
he's a good runner, and they've looked pretty good even since that injury.
12:37
I like Miami here to get this done at home and cover this number.
12:41
I think this is a grinder. Miami's defense is actually really good, and
12:45
I think that's the real difference to me. I think that's the biggest difference
12:48
for me. Another one I want to go to. We're gonna call this
12:50
bar tab Friday Baby Utsa at home in the Alamodome will be playing South Florida
12:56
and the bulls uh Utsa. We've been following the last couple of years and
13:01
we were on beat beep a lot last year. Frank Harris, their quarterback,
13:05
is back. He's healthy and he has been for several weeks now.
13:09
We haven't played a ton of him, but I've been watching and I'm gonna
13:11
say southfold, I'm gonna go Utsa. This is a weird one first half
13:16
minus eight and a half or nine. Here's why I'm playing this game.
13:20
They have covered since Frank Harris has been back over the last six games and
13:24
he's been healthy. They have covered four of their last six games, and
13:28
they have covered five of their last six in the first half. And I
13:33
really think this team comes out hot, gets it done. South Florida's defense
13:37
is man at best. And the reason I don't want to take the full
13:39
games. I don't want to lay sixteen with a back door open that wide
13:43
because I think South Utsa comes out hot, gets it started, takes the
13:48
league goes into halftime. We're good, they're healthy in the spot that they're
13:52
in now, and we go ahead and we get this win. The South
13:54
Florida team's giving up thirty five points a game. They're not that good.
13:58
We just remember seeing him play Bama in the rain where they hung around,
14:01
and that's probably the last time most people have watched Out Florida. But the
14:05
reason I'm not leaving the door open is they can score some points. I
14:07
like their offense. I like their offensive coordinator a lot too. Hope he
14:11
gets a bigger job. So but utsa minus eight and a half or nine
14:15
in the first half is what I'll be laying trying to cover your bar tab.
14:18
Baby. Game starts at six't eight six pm Central. Go ahead and
14:22
get that third margarita on me, because we're gonna take that pick and put
14:24
that ticket in our pocket and make some change. I'm just telling you right
14:28
now. I like it. I like it. I will be at a
14:31
high school playoff game Friday night, so I will have to keep up with
14:35
that one vicariously through what's going on around me. So next game I want
14:39
to go to Scotty is the two thirty CBS game UGGA Tennessee over Unders fifty
14:45
eight and a half. Tennessee is getting ten points in this one. Georgia
14:48
is still undefeated ten and oh straight up only three, six and one against
14:54
the Number, six and four to the over. Tennessee is scoring thirty two
14:58
points a game, only give it up twenty. He's seven to three,
15:00
straight up six and four against the number. These two teams are coming off
15:03
of two completely opposite weekends. Last week, Georgia came out against Old Miss.
15:09
If you were watching that game till about the fourteen minute mark in the
15:13
second quarter, you were like, ooh, this could be a good one.
15:16
And then Georgia just absolutely pulled up the whooping stick on Old Miss and
15:20
took them out to the yard and beat the dog out of them. Tennessee,
15:24
on the other hand, Wow, I guess they just weren't sure they
15:28
were playing Missouri, or maybe they didn't watch film on this team, because
15:33
they got their ass handed to them. I mean, I mean, missoo's
15:35
good, but I mean, but the Tennessee defense can stand up. So
15:41
I'm going uga here, I'm laying it ugga under two touchdowns has gotten serious.
15:46
I think they realize they're on the downhill stretch. They know that they
15:50
still got to perform, and I think they're not stupid. They realized that
15:52
if they lose the SEC championship game against Bama, which is a which could
15:56
happen. I mean, Bama is groovy. They may not get in the
16:00
playoff and so you've got to put some tape down every single week. And
16:03
this is this is their last chance to really do this. I mean,
16:07
Georgia texts better, but this is their last chance to really put it down
16:10
on the road. I think they get it done. The only reason I'm
16:14
excited to watch this game, other than the game itself, is because the
16:17
University of Tennessee went right up the road. And who did they bring home
16:21
but the sweetest sweetheart of all time, Dolly Parton's gonna be at the game,
16:26
Baby, I'm so excited about it. You the rolls go ahead.
16:30
We awesome. Look man, Rocky Tom will be fired up. This is
16:33
a big game. This is gonna be a tough environment. But Georgia has
16:36
done well in these kinds of environments. And I disliked their ability at this
16:42
point to play whoever they're playing and get it done, because that really does
16:48
feel the way it is. If Kirby Smart figures out how to get three
16:52
in a row in this environment in college football, you can just go on
16:57
and start carving his play on the mount rushmore of coaches too, because I'm
17:02
going to tell you something is damn hard to win right now consistently like this,
17:07
and he is doing a tremendous job. And look, they are one
17:10
of the best teams in the country. You know, if we're playing twelve
17:12
team playoffs, they might win it. You know, if we play fourteen
17:15
playoffs, they might win it. You know, if they're good. They
17:19
have some people that are match up problems. They clearly are. Look,
17:23
man, they've done this with some changed coaches. I mean, talk about
17:26
revitalizing a coach. Mike Bobo has gone and been dipped in the water and
17:33
going back home baby to get dipped in the water and come back and coach
17:37
baby. I mean, he just flamed out a couple of places and now
17:41
come back and Georgia's rolling. I mean, they're as good offensively as they've
17:47
ever been. So I like Georgia here as well. It's more about the
17:51
lack of Tennessee's balance for me. That's the difference saotball. They are a
17:56
one dimensional football team for the most part. After some of the injuries they
17:59
had, Brew McCoy, those guys They're a one dimensional football team, and
18:03
I just don't think you can do that against Georgia, whether you're ome or
18:06
not. Their one advantage is negling, and I just don't think that's enough.
18:11
Yeah, I agree with you. Smart's done a hell of a job.
18:15
I mean, we talked about this a minute ago about coaching and being
18:18
under sabing the fact that Bobo is running this offense and it's running as well
18:22
as it is. You've got to realize Kirby learned something when he was at
18:26
Alabama is like, look, I can take coaches that I know are good
18:30
coaches and they might just need a little pick me up, pat him on
18:33
the back and some encouragement and make them good coaches, you know, and
18:36
get them in their spot. And he's done it. And I'm going to
18:38
be interested to see because we've joked about the Nick Saban car wash for a
18:41
while and I with Bobo he's done it because when he first hired him,
18:47
I was kind of like, I don't know if I like that. And
18:51
you know, new quarterback, new offensive coordinator, like I said, new
18:53
defense, a lot of the new defensive pieces, and they look as good
18:57
as advertised. Brother Ugga good so I am, I'm all for what Kirby
19:02
s Mart's got going on up there. Uh, Scott, let's go to
19:04
another two weird one two thirty slot. You can just cueue the TV's up
19:10
and leave the rolling USC UCLA all the way out on the left coast.
19:14
This is game three eighty three on your rotation sheet, USC, who has
19:18
just fallen off the map. But what's interesting to me about this one is
19:22
UCLA has gotten even worse. And this was a team I had high hopes
19:26
for going and we talked about them being a contender in the conference and they
19:30
have just fallen apart. They've had some big injuries at quarterback. Ethan Garber
19:34
supposedly is going to be coming back this week. Over under here is sixty
19:38
five and a half, which is ironically low for a USC game. And
19:41
USC right now there are some books out there where you can get USC minus
19:45
six and a half. Uh. But UFC is still putting up some points.
19:49
Do they have any pride left in this one? They're nine and two
19:52
to the over. UCLA is just the opposite. They're two and eight to
19:56
the under. They've been leaning on their defense all year. They're only scoring
19:59
sixteen points. It's a game. How are we gonna play this one?
20:02
Baby? When we're out there at the coliseum Saturday afternoon. I just don't
20:06
think ugluck can keep up. USC can score on anybody. They're talented.
20:11
And you know we've talked about this for a couple of weeks in a row
20:15
about by Caleb Williams, and I just want to flip to my man Jay
20:21
Jaylen Daniels. Let me tell you this. Let me tell you something.
20:25
That guy's putting up techno ball numbers. I'll be scared to draft maybe time
20:30
to be investigating drafting him at quarterback because I'm gonna tell you he's putting up
20:33
crazy numbers. He doesn't want the house when he gets screwed. But that's
20:36
a whole other story. Uh. USC is going to score points, that
20:40
is the bottom line. And I don't think U c LA can keep up
20:42
with them, even though this is a bad defense. That's exactly what happened
20:45
last year. Uh. And the difference was it was two key turnovers.
20:51
Was the difference in the football game for us for USC to get that win
20:55
last year. In this ball game, And while I don't necessarily know that
20:59
they're gonna ge the turnovers. I don't think they're gonna need it because I
21:02
don't know that they're gonna be able to stop. In that Washington ball game,
21:06
it felt like if Washington did just get a stip or two, they're
21:10
going to win this ball game. That's exactly what they did. They just
21:12
got a stip ar two and it was enough, you know, and that's
21:17
all you need. But that's because Washington could score a bunch. I don't
21:22
think you c LA can do that. And I just don't think seven's enough
21:25
here. I like USC to get this done and finished out. O I
21:29
like it. I like it. Let's go to the eleven o'clock slot.
21:30
Michigan on the road again, back to back weekends tomorrow or I think Friday.
21:34
Actually, the Big Ten is supposed to make a ruling if they're gonna
21:37
get a court in junction and get Jim harball back, I don't think it's
21:41
gonna matter. They're laying nineteen in this one. This is going to be
21:45
a problem for Maryland. I liked Maryland a lot early on in the season.
21:49
I liked little Tua and or two of you what they've got going on
21:53
out there. But since the offensive coordinator got the DWI. This team has
21:57
been off the rail bro. I mean they lost four in a row with
22:02
their only win being a thirteen to ten win over Nebraska. Did you know
22:07
Nebraska can still win the Big Ten West If they went out in Illinois beats
22:11
Iowa, they can win the Big Ten winnings. Imagine them having to play
22:15
Michigan or Ohio State. What a debacle that is. I mean just total
22:22
well and Matt Rule's done a hell of a job turning this team around,
22:26
but they could still win as crazy. But I mean they lost four in
22:30
a row, didn't cover too and not only that, they lost four run
22:34
and they didn't even cover before their win last week against Nebraska. This team,
22:38
Here's why I like Michigan this spot, we talked about it. I
22:41
think Michigan's physical. I think this team is focused. I think they're galvanized
22:47
to go in there and do this. Maryland has played two really good football
22:52
teams this year, Ohio State and they have played Penn State. Ohio State
22:57
they literally just couldn't. I mean, Ohio State played awful, awful and
23:02
they beat them by twenty and covered the number. Penn State came out and
23:06
just physically wood shedded these guys. Line was only seven and a half.
23:11
How did we miss this bet and beat them fifty one to fifteen. Go
23:14
back and look at Mike Loxley over the last couple of years when he steps
23:18
up in competition to play Penn State, when he steps up in you know,
23:22
Ohio State, where maybe they just haven't performed, and I don't think
23:25
they do this week. I think this is a bad situation. The only
23:27
team I can see in the Big Ten that can play with Michigan is Ohio
23:30
State with what they've got going on, the attitude that's up there. Give
23:34
me Michigan and I will eat all that chalk all day long. Brother,
23:38
I like it. I agree with you. Michigan looks really really good.
23:42
Not great numbers against the spread, but again, I think this sets up
23:48
great for him. I think they're just gonna be able to come in and
23:49
play bully ball all night. Well yeah, I mean, well, look
23:53
at they bullied Penn State. They were in thirty two runs in a row
23:57
in the second half. No, no, no, I mean much like
24:00
ben State Maryland. Yeah, They're gonna come in a bully ball them and
24:03
that's and that's the deal missions. Physical, man, they get after it,
24:07
and I think that is one of those I think I think this is
24:11
one of those games where they just wear them down. Oh yeah, I
24:17
think physically Maryland will have quit when you get into the midway through the third
24:21
quarter. I mean, that's just that's that's how I see this game.
24:26
I'm gonna roll with that, Scotty. This next one is fucking awesome.
24:29
I'm pretty excited about this. Auburn New Mexico State. What what's the line
24:33
on this game? Twenty three and a half. You might be able to
24:37
find a twenty four if you're looking around for it. I can't see Auburn
24:42
getting up for this game whatsoever. There was rumors on social media earlier in
24:48
the week that Diego Pavia for New Mexico State wasn't gonna play. If you
24:52
haven't seen this, cat, I highly recommend you get you some of the
24:56
fighting. Jerry Kill's baby, how are you gonna play this one? I
25:00
want my man, Jerry Kill. I mean, he has got these dudes
25:04
not only Bowl eligible, but rolling, baby. I mean they're about to
25:11
probably go eight and four. They've got a chance to win the conference.
25:15
I mean, these guys have just I mean, it looks if there are
25:19
not many worse jobs in this job. I mean, that is just the
25:23
bottom line. But I gotta tell you, I just think this is about
25:27
Auburn just laying a full herd. I mean, I think it gets down
25:34
to just nothing. And yes, I am looking at a couple of books
25:37
where it's twenty four, So yes, you can definitely get you can get
25:41
twenty four out there. I just think they're gonna lay an egg Freeze understands
25:49
very much what it means in that Alabama game, and don't think that he's
25:56
not gonna throw everything but the kitchen sink at those dudes and try to make
26:02
them beat him throwing the football. So their eye is already on next week.
26:07
I can guarantee you that. But you look at some of these You
26:11
look at some of these games, and Auburn, really gas, can do
26:15
you mass to start? Samford? They won by thirty two. I think
26:19
this is a I think this is a better football team than both those guys.
26:23
But this is more about I think Auburn is gonna be sleepwalking notoriously this
26:29
week, going in with these big rivalry games next week. Notoriously. A
26:33
lot of these teams performed poorly this week, and I think Auburn, not
26:37
having the talent that they normally have, this line is just big enough.
26:41
They don't go to here's where the other thing. I think this is interesting
26:45
if you haven't watched New Mexico State play Diego Povey of the quarterback Dude,
26:48
that guy is an animal and he likes to run the rock. I mean,
26:52
this team's nine to two against the number he's mobile they've played. Auburn
26:56
has played two mobile quarterbacks this year. Lsu Jaden Daniels ran for ninety some
27:02
odd yards in that one and Jackson Dart and Jackson Dart had over forty between
27:06
forty and fifty yards rushing in that game. Do I think New Mexico State
27:10
can win the game? Probably not No, But do I think they can
27:12
stay within twenty four with a huge back door that's gonna be open on this
27:15
one, because how interested are they gonna be with the Iron Bowl on deck?
27:18
Because you can say whatever you want to. Auburn already has gotten a
27:23
six and four, which to me exceeds they're gonna win this weekend and have
27:26
seven games. That means they're above the Vegas win total at six and a
27:30
half, so they've already exceeded that, and they've got a chance to spoil
27:33
Alabamas season next week. And I just cannot see this team having a whole
27:38
lot of focus on a game that's gonna be on the SEC network at three
27:42
in the afternoon against New Mexico State. Here, give me New Mexico State,
27:48
Aggie's I like it. That's what I have got, Scotty, that's
27:52
the board for the week. I know you got a couple of leans.
27:56
Toss them out there. We'll rapid fire so we can get this out there
27:59
if everybody wants the play. I'll tell you I like Rutgers minus twenty and
28:03
a half at Penn State. I think Rudgers is going to be good enough
28:07
to hang around because all Penn State can do is throw the football. I
28:11
think Ruggers is gonna be good enough to hang around. I'll tell you what
28:15
I like. As much as I like the twenty and a half, I
28:18
like the eleven first half because I expect again Rudgers to come out play ball
28:23
games. Earl, Rudgers is better than people think. They're better than people
28:27
think, so I like them a lot in this ball game. That is
28:30
the one that's off the board. I am up in the air a little
28:37
bit. Virginia surprised me last week and they are playing so much better,
28:41
getting four at home versus Duke. I kind of like that as well.
28:45
So that's a couple of that off the board that I that I will be
28:48
involved in on Saturday. I've got two others that I have eyeballed but I
28:52
haven't played yet. Texas Tech. This is a this is a I mean
28:57
text fighting for their Bowl life. Here. They're five and five. They've
29:00
got Texas. Both of these teams are five and five. UCF, other
29:06
than last week, has really struggled when they've stepped up in competition against teams
29:10
that were Power five teams before. This Tech team, you know, minus
29:14
the fact that they they had a bad loss to Oregon early in the season,
29:17
they should have probably won that game or at least been within one point.
29:21
Then you've got uh they had to go with their third string quarterback after
29:23
Baron Morton got hurt, and it was just awful and laid some big eggs
29:27
there. They've got a couple of wins. You've got a team UCF which
29:30
is coming off of just wood shedding Oklahoma State last weekend. Now you've got
29:34
to travel from Orlando to Lubbock, which they're gonna think they've landed on Mars
29:40
when they get to Lubbock, and you've got this Tech team that's grooving.
29:42
I like Tech. Laying a small number here at two and a half is
29:45
one of my plays. And then the other one I want to go to
29:48
is let's go to one of the most exciting conferences right here. I don't
29:52
want to pull up not the MEAC, but the Mountain West. UNLV against
29:59
Air kind of a sleeper game two thirty uh. I like UNLV here they're
30:04
getting three points. They're gonna be traveling on the road. This UNLV team's
30:07
got a lot of grit defensively, they've played really good. Air Force to
30:11
me, has not looked good the last couple of weeks, and they've got
30:15
some injuries. You know, they got trumped by Army in this one.
30:18
Then they got beat by Hawaii, and I know, I know they had
30:21
to go to Hawaii, but you should never lose to Hawaii. UNLV is
30:25
focused. They've got a chance to win ten games, baby, because they
30:30
can be Boise State the Rebel roller Man I like this final lot. Give
30:33
me UNLV go look at the injuries for for UH Air Force. Some of
30:38
those guys have been invisible the last couple of weeks, but those are the
30:41
last two that I've got. I like Utah State against Boise State as well
30:45
a little bit, but I hadn't played it yet. You're telling me you
30:48
got it. You're you're liking a live dog and and and in the running
30:52
red. Oh yeah, is that? I like it? I like it?
30:59
You got it? I can mess this up with for a little a
31:02
little parlay action here. You know, I was sitting there. I was
31:04
sitting there thinking, I'm like I did. There are a couple of other
31:07
dogs that I that I like, so oh, be watching Twitter. I
31:15
will come up with I'll come up with a good one because there are a
31:17
couple of good dogs that I like. For us to come up with a
31:19
little underdog parlay here, because I think there are some things that we can
31:25
that we can get get done. I would I would tell you that I
31:27
would be jumping right on the rice owls at Charlotte. But I don't know
31:32
if J. T. Daniels is out, isn't it NT Daniels is out?
31:37
That's exactly right, So that that can that that concerns me a little
31:41
bit. I mean, dude, I mean, you've always got a live
31:48
dog and whoever's playing Iowa because it's gonna be such a low scoring, close
31:52
game, it's easy to lose a game. Oh man, how much do
31:56
you really want to have to watch the Illinois Iowa game? At two thirty
31:59
one? I'll give you one. Give me Kansas at home to pair up
32:01
with it. Ooh, I like it a plus eight and a plus two
32:05
and a half. That's probably gonna pay you out about four and a half
32:08
six to one somewhere in there. I need to look at the money lines
32:10
on those, but that's a good one, all right. So that'll be
32:12
the underdog parlay. We had had one of those in a long time.
32:15
Kansas at plus eight and the running Ribs at plus two and a half plus
32:22
three, actually plus three. I'm looking at a live line now, so
32:25
I like it. Underdog parlay of the week. My favorite play Ugga.
32:29
Give me Ugga minus the number minus ten. I don't think it's closed.
32:32
And just right behind it is going to be the University of Michigan. I
32:37
think they are going to go to the snake pit and just beat the dog
32:39
shit out of Maryland on Saturday. Yeah, my favorite name is Georgia this
32:43
week, that line just doesn't look right. Honestly, it just doesn't look
32:46
right. But I like Michigan too, So that being said, Folks,
32:52
great week. Hit us up on the twitters, give us some reviews,
32:53
some ratings. Let's hopefully get We were at five hundred last week. We're
32:57
a couple of games up with the Mendoza line. We've got a couple of
33:00
weeks of college football left. Next week's schedule, I don't know when we'll
33:04
record. With Thanksgiving, we'll probably try to get something out a little bit
33:06
earlier because Scottie loves to sit at home and yell at the egg Bowl all
33:10
night Thursday night. Yeah, and I will actually not be going this year
33:15
for unseen reasons. I won't be unforeseen reasons. I won't be there,
33:21
So I will be watching it at home and probably will not be watching it
33:27
long as my guess, because I expect Lane Kiffin to give a little boat
33:30
races last game. I want to throw out there, what does the line
33:35
have to if the line is under twenty eight A and M against Abilene Christian
33:39
this week. Are you laying it with the Eggies because my answer is yes,
33:44
because I'm done. They were better with Max Johnson out last week.
33:46
I felt the running aspect of the quarterback really opened that offense up and it
33:51
gave Stayed a lot of problems on defense. But they turned the football over,
33:54
so they were going to get crushed it no matter who was a quarterback,
33:58
but they were a gay. Stayed some problems on offense and it was
34:02
because of the dual threat quarterback. That being said, folks have a good
34:07
week. We appreciate all the downloads, the listeners. It's always a ton
34:09
of fun for us and we hope we can keep you a couple of dollars
34:13
in your pocket. Don't forget to cash that ticket on Miami tonight. We'll
34:15
talk to you soon.