Latest / Financial Survival Network / Beware of Fake Bull Markets -- Chris Vermeulen #5855

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Beware of Fake Bull Markets -- Chris Vermeulen #5855 · Financial Survival Network

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But we just need to be aware that this rally, I think we'll come
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to an abrupt end, but it still might not be it for another five
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or seven percent higher from where it is right now. So you don't want
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to be fighting this trend. You don't want to be trading or investing on
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fundamentals our news because it's going to put you on the wrong side of the
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market almost all the time. You're listening to carry Let's Financial Survival Network where
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trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go
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Survival Network now more than ever. Welcome you are listening to watching the Financial
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Survival Network. I'm your host, Kerry. What's well market, It's we've
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got a new potential goldback currency. Markets have been holding on inflation numbers going
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down? Are they real? Are they fake? What effect will they have?
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That's what I'd like to know. And the person you're about to hear
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from, all right, great friend over at Technical Traders dot com and well,
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hey, it's really great to have you on again, Chris, and
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so, first off, let's talk about gold silver markets today. We're looking
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at gold, you know, up over a percent, silver up nearly four
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percent. What do you make of it? Yeah, well, we're definitely
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seeing a big pop in precious metals and miners today. I think we're seeing,
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you know what, I was looking at the charts earlier in the week,
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and when you look at the longer term chart of all of them,
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they're they're setting up for a really nice potential bottom here in a bounce,
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and we're starting to see that as of you and I speaking here. We're
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seeing gold up you know, one point four, silver four and a half
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percent, gold miners up five plus percent. So we're definitely getting a nice
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rebound. They have been a little bit oversold, they're all down at kind
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of a support level, and from a technical standpoint, a bounce here makes
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a really good sense. The question is how high is this going to go?
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Is this a quick news driven pop or is this going to have some
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legs and we see golden maybe go back up to that twenty eighty level and
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test kind of all time eyes And that's that's going to be the big question
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is is this just a news popping drop or is it the start of going
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back up to test that high again for more or less the fourth time,
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gold will be up into that upper range and potentially see if it gets rejected
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or breaks out. All right, So what about the bricks countries announcing the
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intention to issue a gold backed currency. I have my reservations about it.
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I'll believe it when I see it, because if it's you know, what'll
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happen there? It will just if a currency is actually backed by something other
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than air or the full faith and credit of the country that issued it,
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it would become the most valuable currency. And then you would have Gresham's law
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take place where bad money drives good money out. People would hoard the currency
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and use the so called FIOD currencies to buy everything they need. What's your
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take on it, Yeah, I mean we've been hearing about, you know,
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people wanting countries wanted to start gold backed currency for a long long time.
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So it'll be interesting to see if it actually comes about. Maybe there's
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some legs behind this one, but it really does I think put a lot
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more perspective to investors at gold is more serious of an aspect asset. A
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lot of passive investors who aren't heavy into the market still feel like gold is
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kind of that weird asset. It's kind of outside the norm. And you
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know, if it does become a back another currency, I think it's going
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to really spark for a lot of different investors, young investors to maybe take
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it more seriously and realize it's, uh, you know, it's a it's
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a Really gold has always been a currency, just not a fee hot style
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currency, and I think this could give it legs and make people want to
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accumulate it, want to stockpiling it. As you said, everybody might want
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to just move to that currency. And because it's it's backed by something,
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yeah, well you know, Martin Armstrong says it would basically end international trade.
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I don't know about that, but I do know that that when you
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start monkeying with the reserve currencies, you wind up having issues here for sure.
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So moving on, gold and silver looked like they could go higher.
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We have to see because they were kind of heading lower. But with all
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the uncertainty geopolitical uncertainty in the world, who knows. Looking at the stock
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market. Last time we spoke, you were very bearish on it hasn't collapsed.
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Jeff, we got these dubbish Laian numbers which seem to indicate there could
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be an end to the Fed interest rate hikes, to the tightening, as
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it were. Where is this setting, Yeah, I mean the markets have
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been on a super strong trend all year. Long term, as you mentioned,
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I'm I'm bearish long term. I'm not betting against falling prices yet.
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We have been long the market since April. But long term, I do
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think we're going to go into a much bigger correction in the stock market.
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But obviously this year has been kind of a tarrier, face off type of
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rally for more so the NASDAC, but the SP five hundred is starting to
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catch up and move higher as well. You've got to belong the markets here.
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I mean, the trend is up both from a short term standpoint a
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longer term standpoint, But we just need to be aware that this rally I
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think will come to an abrupt end, but it still might not be it
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for another five or seven percent higher from where it is right now. So
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you don't want to be fighting this trend. You don't want to be trading
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or investing on fundamentals or news because it's going to put you on the wrong
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side of the market almost all the time. So again, follow price,
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you've got to be along the markets. Te tech and growth stocks are doing
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exceptionally well. We're definitely seeing money pile into the growth stock sector. Good
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gauge of that is to look at the ETFs like RKK, RQ, all
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of those. They're a huge in rally mode. They've been gaining some traction,
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and we're also seeing the put call ratio which is very low and it's
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starting to linger at the lower range. And the put call ratio is telling
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us how much leverage to the upside people are buying. And right now everybody
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is more or less buying leverage to the upside, expecting higher prices. So
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we're definitely seeing a feeding frenzy of people piling in the AI, the tech.
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The momentum is to the upside, and now everybody's piling into the really
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fast growth stocks and leverage. So we could see a very strong move up
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here over the next week or so in the stock market, but it could
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come in, it could hit its head and resistance and ride out of steam
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and come back down just as quickly. So this is a definitely a trader's
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market since really the beginning of twenty twenty two. You've got to be very
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aware. These rallies have always been met with huge waves of selling that last
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several months, and right now where the markets are strong, but you've got
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to protect it because it could roll over down the road and have a pretty
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big haircut in price. All right. So one sector that's crucial to the
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economy, global economy for that matter, is housing. These housing stocks they've
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been on a pair. They're trading at five year highs and of in an
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environment with higher interest rates. That's kind of counterintuitive, isn't it It is?
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I mean, I just did an article on the real estate market,
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and when you look at the US real estate, whether it's single family dwellings
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or multi family, all the signs are there. The momentum has shifted,
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it is. It's actually a very barsh sign in terms of the real estate
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market was about to run into some serious headwind. Things are good right now.
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It's typical season alley wise, there's always a big surgeon home new home
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starts, but you know, multi family housing is by far the most popular
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right now, and every time we've seen multi family housing starts spike up and
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make new highs. It's usually a few months just before the housing market actually
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reverses. And so like the home builder stocks like you talked about, have
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been on fire, and there's a big disconnect between those and I think the
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actual real estate kind of markets when we look at investors buying these home building
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stocks. Of course, people right now are getting bullish on the stock market.
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Again, people are very bullish right now in real estate because this is
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just when real estate is god demand, people are looking to move and in
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all that through spring and summer. But overall, I think we're going to
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see a very sharp correction in the house stock space as well. But right
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now it's just a sweet spot in terms of seasonality wise and market sentiment in
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the real estate kind of space that you know you don't want it. You
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don't want to be missing this or you don't want to be jumping in.
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I think at this point, I think it's actually very close to seeing a
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very big correction in the in the housing space, but it's definitely on fire,
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and you don't want to fight this trend or pick a top yet.
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So it's just one of those plays that everybody's piling into it and people are
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going to be buying probably around here near the highs and looking back months from
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now, going how did I get into these stocks, like right at the
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peak, because I think there's a huge turning point in real estate. All
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the charts, all the stats are showing a massive reversal bub We're still again,
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I think, several months away from that really taking place and people seeing
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it hit their home prices and the housing stocks. Yeah, so selling July
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and move away. Huh Yeah. Well home Depot which hit a peak in
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December one of twenty one, it's trading about twenty five percent below its peak.
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Still, it's you know, it's been muddling along, and you would
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think that would definitely be an indicator of housing, both for renovations and new
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housing. A lot of builders by their materials there for sure. In copper.
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Copper is kind of a different commodity, but coppers used huge in housing.
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Coppers underperforming. It has kind of a barrassed looking chart. Adds my
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way off the highs. It's not it's not a great sign for the overall
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you know, the overall space. You know, even this year when you
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look at the stock market, everybody's like, oh, it's an amazing year,
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and nasdack's up like thirty southing percent. The reality is, if you
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go back and you look at the highs from last year for the NASDAC,
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the nasdacs still off by like nine percent. The buy and hold portfolio is
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still down fifteen percent from the highs or fourteen percent from the highs in twenty
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one twenty twenty two. So you know, even though we have this huge
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rally this year, everybody's thinking, you know, everything's good and it's a
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really strong year, but really the market is just clawing its way back up
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to recent highs. It's not like it's exploding into new highs. There's all
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kinds of new opportunity. This is just to me, a big relief bounce
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and rally that I think is going to eventually fizzle out here as you see
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rising rates not good for the stock market, not good for the housing market,
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momentum on all these things are shifting. Even though there's been a strong
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rally this year in stocks, this isn't at this point still nothing really more
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than a big technical rebound before. I think the markets had a lot lower
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and it's gonna be interesting to see what happens with gold. We've seen massive
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moves and pops in gold and silver like we're seeing as you and I are
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doing this interview in the past, and they only last a few days and
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they roll over and then we see them hit new multi week or multi month
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lows after that. So you've got to be aware of any big popping in
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an asset based around news, a huge emotional wave, you know, they're
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usually short lived. So the market right now is really trying to suck everybody
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in, get them back into the markets, get the money in there,
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and once everybody the majority have committed, that's usually when you see a big
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reversal take place. But it's like a stampede right now for gross stocks still
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and this week it seems like there's gonna be a little stampede into the precious
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metal space. Question is, you know, does it have legs behind it?
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Or is all this going to fizzle out? You know, a few
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weeks from now, a few months from now, and everybody will be looking
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back going, you know, why did I get in way up there?
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Okay, And as you mentioned, it's July twelve, we're having a rally.
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CPI numbers just came out today they were tamer than expected, and Wall
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Street seven the celebratory orgy of buying. What's your take on inflation? Is
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it past us? Is it over? Or is the worst yet to come?
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I would like to think I would like to think it's maybe peaked out.
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It's it's kind of just I don't know if it's going to go much
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higher, but I think it could linger up here for a while. I
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think we could still see these rates kick around like this for maybe another three,
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six, nine, twelve months. Things. I don't find this thing
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kind of this type of thing reverses very quickly, but I do think once
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it reverses, I think we're gonna see the inflation start to drop very quickly.
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So the question is just kind of holding out and seeing, you know,
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when it starts to roll over. And I'd like to think we'll be
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back down to some some better levels, you know, twelve months from now.
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But of course that's going to require a whole bunch of different things.
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We need the markets to start a correction and then we all go into a
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recession. We'll see layoffs, we'll see you know, all kinds of things
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take place, and that's when everything will start to the bubble will start to
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deflate and we'll start to see pricing kind of get reevaluated and repriced for the
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new kind of economy. I think everybody is still in this mode of buying
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up everything and they feel like they're going to miss out that things are still
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going higher. That momentum is stalling, but we're still in that feeding frenzy
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mode a little bit. And until we that reverses trend, that momentum,
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that long term momentum reverses to the downside, I think inflation is going to
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just kind of linger up here at these levels for a while. All right,
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And energy prices, what is your crystal ball telling you for them?
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Yeah, I mean crude oil, I mean top twenty twenty two. It's
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got a very similar chart pattern that we saw back in two thousand and seven,
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two thousand and eight in terms of its spiking and then correcting down and
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then breaking down another big level once a big bear market actually takes place.
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Twenty twenty two was a bear market, but I really think that was just
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kind of as a topping phase in the stock market. I do think we're
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gonna have another major leg down and that will send crude more or less tumbling
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sharply lower, and I think we could see crude oil potentially get back down
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into the forty dollars range, maybe maybe back down even to the thirty five
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dollars range. If we were to fast forward, you know, six twelve
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months from now, it could it could definitely be a whole lot lower.
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It is hanging onto a thread where it is. And it's the same with
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the real estate. If you were to look at the real estate charts,
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we've got the same peak and the same pattern we saw it back in two
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thousand and seven, just before we went into the housing crisis and the stock
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market crisis. Everything is aligning for like another move like the O eight market
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correction. So people need to be aware as pretty dangerous times potentially around the
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corner. If you don't protect your money, you might end up really regretting
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it down the road, because the markets can wipe out wealth in a matter
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of a few months. You can lose twenty and fifty percent of your life
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savings just because you don't protect it from the downside. So that's that's what
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I focus on. Is all about asset protection. Protect your capital. When
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things are good, we grow up by leaps and bounds when it's dangerous,
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we tip to around very cautiously and are very defensive with our positions, and
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we don't hold, you know, assets that are falling in value. It's
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way better even to sit in cash pleck some interest than it is to hold
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something going down by well, that's why you should go over to the Technical
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Traders dot com. Check out the site. Think about a subscription. Is
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there a sample subscription that FSN listeners viewers can can take advantage of? Chris,
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We have a we have a free newsletter that they can they can join
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and from there you can download a pdf on how the markets work, that
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the main stages are really good infographic and of course I share some of my
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videos on there and reports, so you can get a taste for what I
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do. Kind of similar like what you and I are doing, except for
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I share my charts and I walk through that every day with the markets and
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comment on you know, the sentiment, what's moving and shaking each day.
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All right, Hey, as always, we appreciate you coming on the show
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enlightening so with your trading knowledge, Chris. If you got a question for
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Chris or myself, shoot me an email. Kl atcarry Lutz dot com.
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The link to Chris's site is in the show notes this interview on Financial Survival
17:12
Network dot com. While you're there, to sign up for our free newsletter
17:15
as well. Chris, we'll talk to you a little bit and see how
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this trade unwinds. All right. Thanks, carry take care, Thanks for
17:23
listening to carry Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times.
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