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Gene Sperling: Democrats Must Stick Together To Go Big · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along
0:04
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
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Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
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Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
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Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,
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Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. As well. As President elected
0:20
Speaker 1: by then prepares to take the office, much of the
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Speaker 1: focus will be on his economic plan. Taking a preview
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Speaker 1: what we might see, we welcome Gene Sperling. He's a
0:29
Speaker 1: former director of the National Economic Council under president's Clinton
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Speaker 1: and Obama. He is now president of Sparling Economic Strategies
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Speaker 1: based in Santa Monica, California. Gene, thanks so much for
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Speaker 1: joining us here. A lot to unpack here as it
0:43
Speaker 1: relates to the President elect and his first one days,
0:46
Speaker 1: maybe even first ten days, maybe even today in terms
0:49
Speaker 1: of his actions from an economic perspective. What do you
0:53
Speaker 1: think he and his administration need to get done quickly? Well,
0:59
Speaker 1: I think they've made it smart decision in that they
1:02
Speaker 1: are bifurcating their uh call it a hundred day plan
1:07
Speaker 1: or uh economics start, which is to first focus on
1:13
Speaker 1: the economic relief needed for the crisis. So that means
1:16
Speaker 1: both getting huge amounts up to four hundred billion dollars
1:21
Speaker 1: to ensure that we are able as a country to
1:24
Speaker 1: truly deal with the COVID crisis, and that includes the
1:28
Speaker 1: vaccine distribution, all of the testing, all of the things
1:33
Speaker 1: that we've been so weak and weaker than other nations in.
1:38
Speaker 1: And then also the funding that would go to UH
1:42
Speaker 1: people who are hurting, people who are at risk of
1:44
Speaker 1: losing being evicted. Obviously, you know, more general support, but
1:50
Speaker 1: really for people who need it in the taking the
1:53
Speaker 1: checks up to two thousands. But they're saying, let's do
1:56
Speaker 1: that first. Let's do that relief package first, let's get
2:00
Speaker 1: that done. Let's not hold up UH that for more complex,
2:05
Speaker 1: longer term issues. So you'll see them move quickly, and
2:09
Speaker 1: they're going to try to make it bipartisan. They're going
2:11
Speaker 1: to try to do what's called regular order, working with
2:15
Speaker 1: Republicans do something with sixty votes. But they know and
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Speaker 1: that they in their back pocket they have the ability
2:22
Speaker 1: through a process called reconciliation, to pass this with just
2:26
Speaker 1: fifty Democratic votes. That won't be their goal, but that's
2:29
Speaker 1: a backup plan to make sure they get this part
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Speaker 1: done fast while people are hurting. Economy needs that. Then
2:37
Speaker 1: they say, let's come back and do the build better
2:40
Speaker 1: jobs plan, the infrastructure, the green uh climate jobs, the manufacturing,
2:47
Speaker 1: the enhancing care caregiving jobs across the country. They know
2:52
Speaker 1: that's going to take longer, it's gonna be a little
2:54
Speaker 1: more complex. Uh. So they're saying that's our that's that's
2:59
Speaker 1: phase two. And I think that both are important. One
3:02
Speaker 1: is about relief and emergency, the others about more long
3:05
Speaker 1: term recovery, about speeding the speed in which we get
3:09
Speaker 1: back to long term Uh, I mean we get back
3:12
Speaker 1: to full employment. Remember, uh we're still down nine and
3:16
Speaker 1: a half million jobs since the start of COVID, So
3:21
Speaker 1: we're still in a deep hole with a lot of
3:24
Speaker 1: risk still out there for this recovery. And at this
3:28
Speaker 1: point we have former President George W. Bush and his
3:31
Speaker 1: wife Laura arriving on the platform. Do you know I
3:34
Speaker 1: want to ask you who will Joe Biden and team
3:39
Speaker 1: be targeting in terms of trying to get some of
3:42
Speaker 1: you know, what they want done. I mean, for example,
3:44
Speaker 1: at one point nine trillion dollars stimulus, there's very few
3:47
Speaker 1: people who actually believe that it will be the full
3:50
Speaker 1: one point nine trillion dollars. But to get up as
3:52
Speaker 1: much as possible, who are the power brokers they need
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Speaker 1: to to be to be targeting well, I think the
4:00
Speaker 1: I think in the end of the day, the most
4:04
Speaker 1: important thing is can they keep all of the Democrats together,
4:08
Speaker 1: because again, if they have fifty votes they get to
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Speaker 1: use for a budget matters which are kind of the
4:15
Speaker 1: major kind of spending issues. You can do it with reconciliation.
4:20
Speaker 1: So it would be the Democrats that might be holdouts.
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Speaker 1: I think, you know, you'd want to make sure that
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Speaker 1: the that the ones who are seen as the more
4:29
Speaker 1: moderate Democrats. You know, I think people will be looking
4:32
Speaker 1: a lot at Joe Mansion from West Virginia, UH, Senator
4:37
Speaker 1: Cinema from Arizona Center, Tester from Montana. They're gonna want
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Speaker 1: to say, where can what in this package can we
4:46
Speaker 1: get agreement on? That goes all the way from the
4:51
Speaker 1: most progressive members like Bernie Sanders to the more conservative
4:55
Speaker 1: members of the Democratic Party like Joe Manson. But I
4:59
Speaker 1: think when they start, they're going to start with the
5:02
Speaker 1: view that a lot of Republicans are not are going
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Speaker 1: to want to support the major money for vaccine distribution.
5:08
Speaker 1: You've had several Republicans support the taking the checks to
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Speaker 1: two thousand dollars. It's gonna be hard for lots of
5:16
Speaker 1: people to vote against extending long term unemployment. So I
5:20
Speaker 1: think they're going to start with a fairly broad view,
5:23
Speaker 1: looking for where the Republicans, uh, you know, can support them.
5:29
Speaker 1: The biding can show he's doing bipartisan economic legislation, but
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Speaker 1: in the end of the day, they know that ultimate
5:37
Speaker 1: backup card is having all fifty Democrats on board, and
5:42
Speaker 1: so yes, I think they'll be looking for where their
5:45
Speaker 1: most progressive and most moderate members can find common ground. So, Gene,
5:51
Speaker 1: it's fairly clear that this pandemic and the economic disruption
5:55
Speaker 1: has just exposed yet again, income, inequality, wealth, any quality
6:00
Speaker 1: in this country. And his president, like Biden, thinks about
6:04
Speaker 1: his economic plan is fiscal stimulus, plans plural. How do
6:08
Speaker 1: you think what's the best way to go about addressing
6:10
Speaker 1: some of these issues? Well, you know, you're absolutely right.
6:14
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it is fair to say that,
6:18
Speaker 1: um that the pandemic, rather than create economic and racial disparities,
6:23
Speaker 1: has just exposed and accelerated them. And I think that
6:27
Speaker 1: will be very much on his mind and will impact
6:32
Speaker 1: his policies. And remember during the campaign he talked about
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Speaker 1: the k recovery or recovery that might have an okay
6:40
Speaker 1: GDP number, but when you looked beneath it, you would
6:43
Speaker 1: find people who are more fortunate Like myself. We've been
6:46
Speaker 1: able to continue to work and work from home doing well.
6:50
Speaker 1: And you've heard Leo Brainerd at the Federal Reserve estimate
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Speaker 1: that for lower income workers or those who can't just
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Speaker 1: work from the unemployment rate is close to near depression levels.
7:05
Speaker 1: So I think he's going to be looking at that
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Speaker 1: very closely. So Number one, you've got to prevent downward falls. Uh.
7:13
Speaker 1: You know, recessions are tough, but if you lose your home,
7:16
Speaker 1: if you're evicted, if you don't have food on the table,
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Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's offensive to our values. That causes
7:23
Speaker 1: long term unemployment that many people don't recover from. So
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Speaker 1: I think he's gonna you know, I think these policies
7:30
Speaker 1: will be very targeted to that, and I think when
7:32
Speaker 1: you see him do his jobs plan, there will be
7:35
Speaker 1: a lot of focus on making sure, you know, not
7:38
Speaker 1: just putting dollars out and hoping people, you know, not
7:42
Speaker 1: worrying about who gets hired, but doing it in a
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Speaker 1: way that is ensuring you're improving uh, not just homeownership,
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Speaker 1: but closing that racial homeownership gap, which is a way
7:52
Speaker 1: of closing the racial wealth gap, making sure when you
7:56
Speaker 1: you know, most presidents often have just an infrastructure plan
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Speaker 1: by I didn't build back better plan includes caregiving jobs
8:03
Speaker 1: those tend to be and health workers those tend to
8:05
Speaker 1: be often helping more women, helping more more women of color.
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Speaker 1: That's very important to him. Gene, who is the next
8:13
Speaker 1: federal reserved chair? And uh, you know, you know, uh,
8:20
Speaker 1: that's gonna you know that that's going to be the
8:23
Speaker 1: you know, one of the fun parlor games among economic
8:26
Speaker 1: nerds across the globe. Uh. And I don't want to.
8:31
Speaker 1: I guess I have too many friends who were probably
8:36
Speaker 1: soon Uh you know, I really I really don't know.
8:40
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna I've worked enough with Joe Biden to
8:45
Speaker 1: not want to totally second, you know, try to front
8:47
Speaker 1: run his choices. I think that I think there's no
8:51
Speaker 1: question that the fact that they won Georgia, uh and
8:55
Speaker 1: that they do control the Senate does give him more
9:00
Speaker 1: discretion to think about picking somebody knew, somebody who might
9:04
Speaker 1: be more his own person. But I'm guessing that even
9:08
Speaker 1: within the Buying administration, as they're scrambling to get their
9:11
Speaker 1: cabinet in and chosen and confirmed, I would bet that
9:15
Speaker 1: that decision has not been made. Gen thirty seconds. What's
9:20
Speaker 1: the greatest risk to this economy? Here? Markets equit, markets
9:23
Speaker 1: hitting all time highs. But what's the risk out there?
9:27
Speaker 1: You know, doing too little, doing too little under uh,
9:32
Speaker 1: you know, underestimating you know that would end up being
9:35
Speaker 1: the problem. Before that, you you can only get one
9:37
Speaker 1: bite at the apple, things get worse. Uh. You can
9:41
Speaker 1: imagine a new strain that's that's resistant to the new vaccine.
9:46
Speaker 1: When I came inven to be any C director, we
9:50
Speaker 1: were looking at a strong economic year, and then you
9:52
Speaker 1: had the NW clear meltdown in Japan, you had the
9:55
Speaker 1: you had the Arab Spring. Things happen, and I think
10:00
Speaker 1: that's why what you heard from yelling is the risks
10:03
Speaker 1: of going small are much greater than the risk of
10:07
Speaker 1: going big. And I think that is going to define
10:10
Speaker 1: what you see from this president economically in his first year.
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Speaker 1: Gene Sperling, thank you so much for joining us today.
10:17
Speaker 1: On everything that we know so far, and the parlor
10:22
Speaker 1: games in Washington, d C among economic circles. And you
10:26
Speaker 1: know who might actually be filling out the different roles
10:31
Speaker 1: in d C over the coming couple of years. Jean Sparling,
10:33
Speaker 1: former director of the National Economic Council under Presidents Clinton
10:36
Speaker 1: and Obama and president of Sparreling Economic Strategies, joining us there. So, Paul,
10:42
Speaker 1: it is an auspicious day. It always is only coming,
10:45
Speaker 1: obviously once every four years, and today we're going to
10:48
Speaker 1: see President elect Joe Biden and Vice President let Kamala
10:52
Speaker 1: Harris sworn in. Yeah, it's gonna be a very unique day,
10:55
Speaker 1: unique inauguration, Vanni, with what we're doing with in terms
10:58
Speaker 1: of the pandemic and what in a couple of weeks ago,
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Speaker 1: but a day of celebration, nonetheless. So let's hand it
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Speaker 1: over now to our colleague David Weston, who's going to
11:06
Speaker 1: continue for the next three hours with Balance of Power
11:12
Speaker 1: Inauguration Day in our nation's capital. Stay tuned for live
11:15
Speaker 1: coverage of the inauguration of Joe Biden on a special
11:17
Speaker 1: edition of Bloomberg's Balance of Power with David Weston. Our
11:20
Speaker 1: Wall Wall coverage starts at eleven a m. Wall Street
11:23
Speaker 1: Time on Bloomberg Radio and Television. Let's get a preview
11:27
Speaker 1: of what we might experience later today as inauguration takes place.
11:31
Speaker 1: We welcome Jennie shan Zano, Bloomberg Politics contributor, author of
11:36
Speaker 1: American Democracy in Crisis, also professor Political Science at Iona College. Professor.
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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us, Jennie. What do you
11:42
Speaker 1: think we're going to hear from soon to be President
11:46
Speaker 1: Biden in his inaugural address? You know, what I'm expecting
11:51
Speaker 1: to hear is a theme of bipartisanship. This is somebody
11:54
Speaker 1: who has been in the Senate for much of his
11:57
Speaker 1: adult life. He understands that in order to get all
12:00
Speaker 1: of the bills he wants to get passed and addressed
12:02
Speaker 1: all of the challenges we're facing, he's going to need
12:05
Speaker 1: to work across the aisle. So I expect we're going
12:08
Speaker 1: to hear about bipartisanship or reach across the aisle. A
12:11
Speaker 1: call for unity that seems to be the buzzword of
12:14
Speaker 1: the day. Um. You know, so we've had historic inaugural
12:18
Speaker 1: addresses obviously in the past, but I do think that
12:21
Speaker 1: it's going to be a stark contrast to what we
12:23
Speaker 1: heard in sixteen with the infamous carnage speech. I think
12:27
Speaker 1: Biden's tony is going to be completely different from its predecessor, Genie.
12:31
Speaker 1: How does Kamala Harris's role manifest She has an opportunity
12:35
Speaker 1: right now that previous vice presidents haven't had. How will
12:39
Speaker 1: her and Biden define this new role. It's gonna be
12:43
Speaker 1: so fascinating because, of course, Kamala Harris a historic pick.
12:47
Speaker 1: She's the first woman, she is the first African American
12:51
Speaker 1: Indian descent. Of course, also she is likely to be
12:56
Speaker 1: the leading candidate for the presidency in we widely expect
13:01
Speaker 1: that Joe Biden, given his age at seventy eight, is
13:04
Speaker 1: not going to be running again. Um. If that is
13:07
Speaker 1: the case, then Kamala Harris is going to be not
13:11
Speaker 1: just serving as vice president and helping the president through
13:14
Speaker 1: all of these challenges we're facing, but also herself gearing
13:18
Speaker 1: up for a run. And that is going to, I
13:22
Speaker 1: think be fascinating. And I know you're both probably shocked
13:25
Speaker 1: that I'm talking about today, but if we recall Donald Trump,
13:30
Speaker 1: I think it was vunny the day of his inauguration
13:32
Speaker 1: or the day after he announced he was running in
13:36
Speaker 1: so you know, it is really uh, you know, time
13:39
Speaker 1: to gear up for four and Kamala Harris is going
13:42
Speaker 1: to be a leading contender obviously for that position. So, Jenny,
13:46
Speaker 1: the first one days of any president's term tend to
13:49
Speaker 1: be very, very busy where they have a lot of
13:52
Speaker 1: they try to get a lot of work done. What
13:55
Speaker 1: do you think this president can't get done in the
13:58
Speaker 1: first one days. It's been fascinating. He's been talking about
14:02
Speaker 1: not just the one hundred day marker, which we're so
14:05
Speaker 1: used to in the U s. Sort of this historic day,
14:07
Speaker 1: a hundred days, he's been talking about ten days. And
14:11
Speaker 1: what we expect is he is immediately as early as today,
14:14
Speaker 1: going to be sending to Congress a massive immigration bill
14:19
Speaker 1: um that I think is going to be a sweeping
14:22
Speaker 1: proposal to provide citizenship for eleven million undocumented people living
14:27
Speaker 1: in the United States. We also expect in the first day,
14:31
Speaker 1: just this afternoon, he's going to sign a series of
14:33
Speaker 1: executive orders dealing with everything from the environment and climate again,
14:37
Speaker 1: to immigration, to the public health crisis COVID, and to
14:41
Speaker 1: racial justice. So he has a lot on his plate,
14:44
Speaker 1: not just in the first hundred days, but in the
14:46
Speaker 1: first day, because he's expected to be in the Oval
14:49
Speaker 1: Office working as early as this afternoon. President Hump earlier
14:54
Speaker 1: this morning made some remarks to reporters and also obviously
14:57
Speaker 1: made some remarks on the podium before he left Joint
15:01
Speaker 1: Bass Andrews. He said we will be back, and he
15:04
Speaker 1: had told reporters hopefully it's not going to be a
15:05
Speaker 1: long goodbye. I'm curious as to what you think President
15:08
Speaker 1: Trump will try to do next, particularly given that among
15:11
Speaker 1: the pardons where Steve Bonna, we were expecting some that
15:15
Speaker 1: we didn't get, and then we did get the Steve
15:18
Speaker 1: Bonn on one. What was the significance of the significance
15:20
Speaker 1: in my mind, is that exactly tied to this we
15:24
Speaker 1: will be back statement that he made. I think the president,
15:28
Speaker 1: the President Trump expects that he or members of his family,
15:32
Speaker 1: his daughter, his daughter in law, and his son, all
15:34
Speaker 1: looking at potential races in Florida and the South part
15:37
Speaker 1: of the United States, may rely on somebody like as
15:40
Speaker 1: Steve Bannon to be an advisor for potential runs for
15:43
Speaker 1: Congress and potentially if a President Trump, former President Trump
15:47
Speaker 1: decides to run again. So I think you're absolutely right.
15:50
Speaker 1: I was also struck by his remarks in terms of
15:52
Speaker 1: how he took credit for what is going to happen
15:56
Speaker 1: in the Biden administration, saying that he laid the foundation
15:59
Speaker 1: for what ever good they're able to achieve with a
16:01
Speaker 1: lot of luck. So it was sort of the first
16:03
Speaker 1: time I've heard somebody take credit prior to his successor
16:07
Speaker 1: entering office. So I thought that was fascinating as well. Jennie, Realistically,
16:11
Speaker 1: what do you think um soon to be President Biden
16:15
Speaker 1: can get done legislatively? He has obviously a long track
16:18
Speaker 1: record in Congress, bipartisan historical record. Can he bring reluctant
16:25
Speaker 1: Republicans and maybe some Democrats over to his side to
16:28
Speaker 1: get meaningful legislation done. He's going to have to do that,
16:33
Speaker 1: And I want to be optimistic on this day of
16:35
Speaker 1: sort of celebration and say yes he can. As you mentioned,
16:39
Speaker 1: he's perfectly situated to do that given his history in
16:41
Speaker 1: the Senate and of reaching across the aisle. I'm not
16:44
Speaker 1: so sure he's going to be able to get the
16:46
Speaker 1: bills that he wants passed in the way he wants.
16:48
Speaker 1: For instance, this almost two trillion dollar stimulus bill we're
16:52
Speaker 1: already hearing yesterday, during the confirmation, hearings pushback from Republicans
16:57
Speaker 1: on things like the fifteen dollar minimum wage, on the
17:00
Speaker 1: fourteen hundred dollars called by Marco Rubio also contender for
17:05
Speaker 1: a more piecemeal approach, So there is going to be
17:07
Speaker 1: pushed back from Republicans, and I suspect in the case
17:11
Speaker 1: of COVID immigration and the other bills infrastructure that he
17:15
Speaker 1: wants to get past, these are going to be watered down,
17:19
Speaker 1: if you will. I don't think we'll get at one
17:21
Speaker 1: point nine trillion dollar. I think we're going to be
17:23
Speaker 1: closer to a one trillion dollar bill at the end.
17:26
Speaker 1: It's going to be a negotiation for sure, because he
17:29
Speaker 1: needs not just the moderate Republicans, he needs to also
17:32
Speaker 1: maintain the Democrats. And I would say one thing to
17:35
Speaker 1: watch for Democrats or Republicans who leave their party. Genie.
17:38
Speaker 1: Thank you. Genie will be contributing throughout the day, so
17:41
Speaker 1: do continue to listen and watch a Genie. Sean Zano
17:44
Speaker 1: Bloomberg politics contributor, professor at Iona College and author of
17:48
Speaker 1: a new book, American Democracy in Crisis. This is Bloomberg. Well,
17:54
Speaker 1: we're just seeing continued gains here for you as equities
17:57
Speaker 1: with an ASDAG up one point seven recent now more
18:00
Speaker 1: than one percent on the ten year yield at one
18:02
Speaker 1: oh ninety eight. Let's bring in Bloomberg process that reporter
18:06
Speaker 1: Sarah Ponsa to give us an idea of what markets
18:08
Speaker 1: are really concentrating on today. Would seem that the dollar
18:12
Speaker 1: index is a little bit weaker relative to, for example,
18:14
Speaker 1: the Canadian dollar. But other than that, it's all about equity, Sarah.
18:17
Speaker 1: It is all about equities today, and we see the
18:19
Speaker 1: NAZAC at record highs, we see the SMP five hundred
18:22
Speaker 1: at record highs. We also see the Russell two thousand
18:24
Speaker 1: at record highs. So from small caps to large caps,
18:27
Speaker 1: but really asserting itself in the markets today is the
18:30
Speaker 1: Fame trade once again, this after Netflix was the first
18:33
Speaker 1: of the group to report earnings yesterday after the bell
18:36
Speaker 1: and really just performing. You could say, we saw a
18:39
Speaker 1: net new subscribers coming at eight point five one million
18:42
Speaker 1: that not only beat Netflix his own forecast, but it
18:45
Speaker 1: also beat the expectations from analysts on Wall Street of
18:48
Speaker 1: six point six million. On top of that, they finally
18:51
Speaker 1: passed two hundred million subscriber mark. At the same time,
18:53
Speaker 1: they said cash flow will now allow it to stop
18:56
Speaker 1: relying on debt to fuel growth. So we see Netflix
18:59
Speaker 1: this morning up almost fifteent, trading out a new record high,
19:03
Speaker 1: and you see the other fang names just trading in tandem.
19:06
Speaker 1: You look at your best performers on a points basis,
19:09
Speaker 1: at least in the SMP five dred as we speak,
19:12
Speaker 1: that's Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, each up at least two and
19:15
Speaker 1: a half percent this morning. Yeah, it's just extraordinary story
19:19
Speaker 1: last night with Netflix. I think the other big thing,
19:21
Speaker 1: Sarah as the company said that you know they're gonna
19:23
Speaker 1: be free cash flow positive pretty quickly, I think a
19:26
Speaker 1: little bit faster than the street expected. So kind of
19:29
Speaker 1: showing how that company is really matured and really kind
19:32
Speaker 1: of grown into its its growth story. Oh surely, and
19:35
Speaker 1: coming into this earning season, A big question for the
19:37
Speaker 1: likes of Netflix, maybe Amazon. You think of other large
19:41
Speaker 1: technology companies that benefited all of and even benefited from
19:46
Speaker 1: the rollout of of COVID nineteen and the play out
19:49
Speaker 1: and people forced to stay at home and work from home.
19:52
Speaker 1: The question really has been, we know that business was
19:54
Speaker 1: pulled forwards for them. We know that many people bought
19:58
Speaker 1: Netflix of scripture because they were stuck at home with
20:01
Speaker 1: nothing else to watch, and and they needed to. We
20:03
Speaker 1: know that happened. Another question is what comes next for
20:06
Speaker 1: these businesses. And there's been this push and pull when
20:09
Speaker 1: we hear investors talk about this rotation not just from
20:13
Speaker 1: from growth to value, but from defensives to cyclicals, and
20:17
Speaker 1: the idea that we might see this shift into the
20:20
Speaker 1: reopening play from the stay at home trade. But it
20:23
Speaker 1: makes you think when you see these companies continue to
20:26
Speaker 1: deliver uh growth companies, And this is also an argument
20:30
Speaker 1: that's made. It's it's not as if they are going
20:33
Speaker 1: to just drift off it and everyone's gonna stop talking
20:36
Speaker 1: about them, and they're no longer going to be strong
20:38
Speaker 1: companies like you pointed out Netflix now going to be
20:40
Speaker 1: cash flow positive. I mean, these are strong companies and
20:43
Speaker 1: it makes you wonder if we can see this reopening trade.
20:47
Speaker 1: Small caps continue to run, but in tandem with big
20:51
Speaker 1: tech and and streaming companies like Netflix that did very
20:55
Speaker 1: well in How much is the market reacting to John
20:59
Speaker 1: at Yellen's testimony. Obviously she is going to be the
21:02
Speaker 1: next to insury secretary. It's you know, almost without a
21:05
Speaker 1: doubt that she'll be voted in by sort of all
21:07
Speaker 1: sides of Congress um and therefore, you know, will try
21:12
Speaker 1: to implement a lot of what Joe Biden has been annunciating,
21:15
Speaker 1: the one point nine trillion dollars in stimulus and so on.
21:18
Speaker 1: How much is today's trade off the back about not
21:21
Speaker 1: too much. I mean, we've known that Janet Yellen was
21:24
Speaker 1: going to be Treasury Secretary for quite a while. Now,
21:27
Speaker 1: she's also a known entity on Wall Street. The expectation
21:30
Speaker 1: is that there really shouldn't be too many surprises here.
21:33
Speaker 1: She has been touting the one point nine trillion dollar
21:35
Speaker 1: stimulus package. On the back of that, we have seen
21:37
Speaker 1: inflation expectations pick up tad Currently I'm looking at tenure
21:41
Speaker 1: break even inflation expectations holding around two point one to
21:45
Speaker 1: per center. So now there were some surprises yesterday. Max
21:48
Speaker 1: Gochman over Pacific Life Fund Advisors actually reached out to
21:51
Speaker 1: me to say that what was surprising within her testimony
21:54
Speaker 1: was her discussion of tax hikes, saying that it's going
22:00
Speaker 1: to come immediately, but possibly we could see a change
22:02
Speaker 1: to the tax code as part of the infrastructure plan.
22:05
Speaker 1: So that maybe did take some infestors off guard, But
22:07
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say necessarily that the testimony that we are
22:11
Speaker 1: seeing from Janet Yellen is affecting stock prices, or the
22:14
Speaker 1: bond market or the dollar today for instance. I mean,
22:17
Speaker 1: she's a known entity on Wall Street and we've known
22:19
Speaker 1: for quite a while now that she was the nominee
22:21
Speaker 1: as well. Fiscal stimulus sarah um, you know, one point
22:25
Speaker 1: nine trillion plan proposed. Hearing some pushback that it's not
22:30
Speaker 1: all going to get past. What do you think the
22:32
Speaker 1: market's kind of discounting here about this next round of stimulus? Right, So,
22:37
Speaker 1: there has been some pushback the idea that we might
22:39
Speaker 1: not see it all get past or all get past immediately.
22:42
Speaker 1: But we haven't seen any negative reaction to this pushback
22:47
Speaker 1: whatsoever in markets. I mean, you see benchmarks today trading
22:51
Speaker 1: at record highs. You see the tenure not really moving
22:54
Speaker 1: all that much, but still holding above one percent and
22:57
Speaker 1: well above one percent now at one point nine percent
23:00
Speaker 1: and holding. So we're not seeing much reaction in the markets.
23:03
Speaker 1: And we've heard it many times, the idea that the
23:06
Speaker 1: market is forward looking and the expectation, it seems is
23:09
Speaker 1: that even if if it's not done immediately, it will
23:12
Speaker 1: get done eventually, and the market, no matter what is
23:15
Speaker 1: just looking ahead and saying we've got trillions of dollars
23:18
Speaker 1: worth of fiscal stimulus coming down the pipeline. Uh, and
23:22
Speaker 1: clearly the markets like that. Sarah Ponzac, thank you so much.
23:26
Speaker 1: We appreciate that. Sarah Ponzack, cross asset reporter for Bloomberg News,
23:31
Speaker 1: giving us the thoughts on the markets again, Vanni. Uh,
23:34
Speaker 1: equity markets hitting all time highs here on this bullish
23:38
Speaker 1: outlook I think for the economy in the near intermediate term,
23:41
Speaker 1: given stimulus and given low interest rates. Yeah, absolutely. I
23:45
Speaker 1: mean it's the same narrative that we've been listening to
23:47
Speaker 1: right as long as we've known. You know that the
23:50
Speaker 1: election results were pretty accepted, you know, and maybe not
23:54
Speaker 1: by everybody, but that that that none of the court proceedings,
23:58
Speaker 1: for example, was going to exceed in the stock market.
24:04
Speaker 1: Let's see where the action is under the hood, and
24:06
Speaker 1: we do that with when we're stocks editor Dave Wilson, Dave,
24:09
Speaker 1: what are you looking at today? Well, there's plenty of
24:11
Speaker 1: the same in Netflix, a perfect example. You know, you
24:15
Speaker 1: go back and look at the stock performance after past
24:18
Speaker 1: and earning these reports, and you see it was down
24:21
Speaker 1: in seven of the past eight quarters. So it's a
24:24
Speaker 1: real contrast to what we're seeing today with the percent
24:28
Speaker 1: plus gain that Greg Jarrett mentioned. You know, the other
24:32
Speaker 1: side of the coin is what's going on with the
24:34
Speaker 1: financial companies. You know, in general, the fourth quarter results
24:39
Speaker 1: just haven't been well received. I mean, sure, you've got
24:41
Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley shares higher in the wake of their results.
24:45
Speaker 1: They're only up one percent, though, and the two worst
24:48
Speaker 1: performers in the S and P five hundred are companies
24:51
Speaker 1: that also reported fourth quarter results today, Bank of New
24:55
Speaker 1: York Malwine, which is down six percent, and US Bank
24:58
Speaker 1: Corps down four point four percent. So, you know, and
25:02
Speaker 1: that's consistent with what we saw on Friday. Uh, the
25:05
Speaker 1: reaction to the figures out of City Group and JP,
25:09
Speaker 1: Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo. You know, you put that
25:12
Speaker 1: all together, and you know, it kind of shows you
25:16
Speaker 1: that is as good as the results might be, if
25:18
Speaker 1: you look at them relative to analysts estimates, they're really
25:22
Speaker 1: not going over all that well in terms of the
25:25
Speaker 1: market reactions. So that's going to be something to watch
25:28
Speaker 1: as we go through. You know, is it going to
25:31
Speaker 1: be more of a Netflix kind of a response to results,
25:35
Speaker 1: or is it going to be more in line with
25:36
Speaker 1: what we're seeing with the banks. Beyond that day, does
25:39
Speaker 1: a monumental shift happening in Washington, d C. And in
25:42
Speaker 1: the country today in terms of leadership and what that
25:45
Speaker 1: means for policy going forward. But today is the day
25:48
Speaker 1: for pumping circumstances. So what is volume like, Well, you
25:53
Speaker 1: look at what's going on. Just check out the first
25:56
Speaker 1: half hour of trading in stocks listed on either of
26:01
Speaker 1: the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAK. We saw about
26:04
Speaker 1: two point six billion shares change hands. And just to
26:09
Speaker 1: provide some context to that, you go back and look
26:13
Speaker 1: at yesterday, just you know, for a point of reference,
26:17
Speaker 1: and it's actually just a little bit above what we
26:19
Speaker 1: saw a week ago. So you know it trading carries
26:23
Speaker 1: on basically, and with the earnings reports coming out and
26:27
Speaker 1: and all the rest. I mean, it's not exactly a surprise.
26:30
Speaker 1: One interesting name, guys, I thought was really interesting today
26:33
Speaker 1: Ali Baba. The stock is up five percent and I
26:35
Speaker 1: guess jack Ma is alive and well, and that's a
26:39
Speaker 1: I guess a reprieve for shareholders in this company. Dave, Well,
26:43
Speaker 1: it is because it's the first time he's really common
26:45
Speaker 1: seen in public in about three months. You know, ever,
26:48
Speaker 1: since China's government started clamping down on him, you know,
26:52
Speaker 1: in the wake of UH you know and Financial, the
26:56
Speaker 1: UH consumer finance company in which Ali Baba as a
27:00
Speaker 1: controlling stake you know, and planned to go public or
27:02
Speaker 1: with him in the biggest UH initial public offering ever worldwide,
27:06
Speaker 1: and Chinese government didn't let that happen. And since you know,
27:10
Speaker 1: Jack Ma is kind of keeping a low profile, may
27:13
Speaker 1: it was real concern about, you know, well where is he?
27:16
Speaker 1: And he showed up in a live stream video for
27:20
Speaker 1: this event that he sponsors honoring rural teachers, so at
27:23
Speaker 1: least people have some reassurance that he's still around. And
27:27
Speaker 1: then from there it's a matter of, you know, what
27:29
Speaker 1: does Uh ali Baba look like going forward, which is
27:33
Speaker 1: a you know, a much bigger question, you know, given
27:35
Speaker 1: UH you know, the the back and forth in terms
27:38
Speaker 1: of how companies are being perceived. I mean, Ali Baba
27:41
Speaker 1: kind of dodged a bullet last week because there was
27:44
Speaker 1: talk UH that the company might uh be kind of
27:48
Speaker 1: taken off the list of potential investments for for US
27:52
Speaker 1: investors with a blacklist, but that didn't happen. So you know,
27:56
Speaker 1: Ali Baba has got the all clear for the moment,
27:58
Speaker 1: and having Jack Mob being seen in public a sort
28:01
Speaker 1: of goes along with that. We're expecting a minimum of
28:04
Speaker 1: fifteen executive order is likely to be signed in the
28:07
Speaker 1: five o'clock hour or thereabouts, things like, you know, reversing
28:11
Speaker 1: the US withdrawal from the Harris Climate Accord and the
28:14
Speaker 1: w h O. Also, though, things like revoking apartment for
28:18
Speaker 1: the Keystone Xcel pipeline DAVI or any stocks moving on
28:21
Speaker 1: the idea that we're going to be reversing some of
28:24
Speaker 1: what Donald Trump had put in place. Well, I'm not
28:27
Speaker 1: seeing a whole lot of reaction a TC Energy, and
28:29
Speaker 1: that's the Canadian company that owns Transcanta pipelines, and they
28:33
Speaker 1: would be directly affected by that order, assuming it's coming
28:37
Speaker 1: on Keystone xl UH shares are only down half for
28:41
Speaker 1: percent in US training though, and they've kind of been,
28:44
Speaker 1: you know, a little changed the last couple of days.
28:45
Speaker 1: Is the prospect of this executive order has come up.
28:48
Speaker 1: I suppose you could argue that, yeah, it's something that
28:52
Speaker 1: people have been anticipating because you know, President elect Biden
28:56
Speaker 1: had pledged to revoke the permit it, so now it's
29:01
Speaker 1: just a matter of following through. Uh So, you know
29:03
Speaker 1: we'll see how things unfold from here. You know what's
29:06
Speaker 1: interesting today stock that kind of called my eye hitting
29:09
Speaker 1: a fifty two week high. General Motors. The stock is
29:12
Speaker 1: a fifty seven percent on a trailing twelve month basis
29:17
Speaker 1: on a year to date basis, and Bloomberg has got
29:19
Speaker 1: a nice article on the terminal today about how Mary
29:22
Speaker 1: barrat maybe getting some of that tesla Um kind of
29:25
Speaker 1: halo effective as they move into electric vehicles on autonomous
29:28
Speaker 1: vehicles uh GM. Heck of a move. Yeah, it's all
29:32
Speaker 1: about this unit called Cruise. I mean, GM has a
29:36
Speaker 1: majority steak. You know, yesterday we found out there was
29:39
Speaker 1: a two billion dollar round of fundraising with Microsoft leading
29:43
Speaker 1: the way along with GM. It's certainly uh gets your attention.
29:47
Speaker 1: And the story you noted, Paul Um highlights. You know,
29:51
Speaker 1: so the back and forth on Twitter between uh GM
29:55
Speaker 1: CEO Mary Barr and Microsoft CEO Sacha Adela about this deal,
30:00
Speaker 1: so you know, to kind of have the in premeter
30:02
Speaker 1: of Microsoft down your business. Yeah, I mean that definitely
30:05
Speaker 1: gets people's attention. You know, it's interesting. You know we've
30:08
Speaker 1: always talked about that. You know, when are the big
30:11
Speaker 1: global automakers going to make the move into electrical vehicles,
30:15
Speaker 1: if for no other reason than to get some of
30:18
Speaker 1: the valuation bump that maybe they could from someone like
30:21
Speaker 1: you know, like that Tesla enjoys for so long, and
30:24
Speaker 1: maybe we're starting to see a little bit of movement
30:25
Speaker 1: there on some of these companies. Dave Wilson, thanks so
30:28
Speaker 1: much for joining us Bloomberg Stock centeror we appreciate that.
30:31
Speaker 1: Looking at the market again, a relatively good day here
30:35
Speaker 1: as we start the trading. We have the SMP up
30:37
Speaker 1: about just under one percent here, so we'll certainly keep
30:40
Speaker 1: an eye on that, and we'll have more inauguration coverage
30:44
Speaker 1: coming up in just moments. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg
30:48
Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at
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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn.
30:56
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney.
30:58
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you
31:01
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio m H