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Record Highs, Smart Plays · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hello and welcome to Spy Trader , your goto podcast for navigating the ups and downs of the market !
• 0:06
  I'm your host , Money Mover Molly , and it's 6 pm on Thursday , July 24th , 2025 , Pacific time .
• 0:14
  We've had quite a day , and there's a lot to unpack , so let's dive right in .
• 0:18
  The U.S.
• 0:19
  stock market has been on a tear , with major indices reaching new highs , but as always , there's a fascinating mix of news and economic signals to consider .
• 0:29
  Let's start with a quick rundown of the day's highlights .
• 0:32
  The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared over 1 percent , closing above 45,000 for the first time since December last year , and it's now less than 64 points shy of its alltime high .
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  The techheavy Nasdaq Composite also made history , finishing above 21,000 for the very first time , up 0.6 percent .
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  And not to be outdone , the S&P 500 gained 0.8 percent , marking its 12th closing high this year and setting a new intraday record .
• 1:05
  Even the CBOE Volatility Index , often called the fear gauge , was down almost 7 percent , suggesting a calmer market vibe .
• 1:15
  This positive sentiment was significantly boosted by some good news on the trade front .
• 1:21
  The U.S.
• 1:21
  and Japan struck a new trade deal today , which includes reciprocal 15 percent tariffs on Japanese exports and reduced duties on Japanese auto imports .
• 1:32
  Plus , Japan is set to invest a whopping 550 billion dollars in the U.S.
• 1:37
  Earlier this month , we also saw a trade deal with Vietnam .
• 1:41
  On the corporate earnings front , Q2 results are rolling in strong , with over 80 percent of S&P 500 companies beating expectations .
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  Alphabet , for instance , surged over 3 percent after reporting strongerthanexpected earnings , driven by its massive investments in AI chips .
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  However , not all news was rosy .
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  Tesla shares tumbled nearly 9 percent today due to a cautious forward outlook , and IBM declined more than 8 percent as its software revenue growth slowed .
• 2:14
  Looking at the broader economy , we're seeing some interesting trends .
• 2:19
  Inflation , as measured by the Consumer Price Index , accelerated for the second straight month in June , reaching 2.7 percent , its highest level since February .
• 2:31
  The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at 4.25 to 4.50 percent , and while markets don't expect a cut at their upcoming meeting , officials anticipate two 25basispoint cuts later in the year , likely starting in September .
• 2:48
  Despite a mixed GDP picture — with Q1 showing a slight decrease — the labor market remains robust , with unemployment dropping to 4.1 percent in June .
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  Now , let's dive deeper into what this all means for your portfolio .
• 3:03
  The market's current trajectory is truly a balancing act between strong corporate earnings , especially in the technology sector , and these evolving trade dynamics , all while navigating underlying macroeconomic deceleration and inflationary pressures .
• 3:19
  It’s a fascinating time to be in the market .
• 3:22
  First up , let's talk about continued exposure to growth , but with a watchful eye .
• 3:28
  The technology sector , especially companies deeply involved in AI , continues to show incredible strength and investor interest .
• 3:36
  We saw strong earnings from Alphabet , and AI chip makers like NVIDIA Corp.
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  and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
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  continue to advance .
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  This signals a sustained growth trend .
• 3:48
  For investors looking for concentrated exposure to the largest nonfinancial companies on the Nasdaq , which are heavily skewed towards tech , the Invesco QQQ Trust , ticker QQQ , is an excellent ETF .
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  If you prefer more diversified tech exposure within the S&P 500 , consider the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLK .
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  Individual stocks like NVIDIA Corp.
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  , ticker NVDA , and Alphabet , ticker GOOGL , remain strong candidates .
• 4:23
  But given their significant recent gains , using a dollarcost averaging strategy could help mitigate some of the risk .
• 4:31
  Next , let's look at opportunities in the Industrials sector .
• 4:35
  This sector has really flexed its muscles recently .
• 4:39
  The strong performance of the Industrials Select Sector SPDR , ticker XLI , and positive company news like United Rentals' earnings report , where their stock jumped 9 percent after beating forecasts and raising their outlook , suggest a favorable environment .
• 4:56
  The XLI offers diversified exposure to industrial companies .
• 5:00
  And for a specific company focus , United Rentals , ticker URI , certainly looks attractive after its robust report .
• 5:09
  Moving on to navigating our current inflation and interest rate environment .
• 5:14
  With inflation reaccelerating to 2.7 percent in June and the Fed holding rates steady , a cautious approach is wise .
• 5:23
  The good news is that if the Fed does start cutting rates later in 2025 , as anticipated in September , bond prices could see an upward movement .
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  For broad , diversified exposure to U.S.
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  investmentgrade bonds , consider the iShares Core U.S.
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  Aggregate Bond ETF , ticker AGG , or the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF , ticker BND .
• 5:48
  These can add stability and income to your portfolio .
• 5:52
  For those looking to potentially capitalize on falling longterm rates , the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF , ticker TLT , could be considered , though it comes with higher interest rate sensitivity .
• 6:05
  And with inflation concerns persisting , gold can serve as a historical hedge .
• 6:10
  The SPDR Gold Shares , ticker GLD , ETF provides easy exposure to gold bullion .
• 6:17
  Finally , let's talk about a cautious approach to underperforming sectors and stocks .
• 6:22
  Some areas like Healthcare and individual stocks such as UnitedHealth Group , ticker UNH , have underperformed this year .
• 6:30
  While these might appear as value opportunities , their underperformance is often linked to specific industry headwinds .
• 6:38
  For broad healthcare exposure , the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLV , might be considered , but with caution due to its recent declines .
• 6:47
  For individual stocks like UNH , while they might seem cheap , thorough due diligence is absolutely essential .
• 6:54
  For instance , despite its recent fall , UnitedHealth Group is still viewed by some as a longterm buy given its critical role in healthcare .
• 7:03
  So , what's the overall strategy here ?
• 7:06
  Given the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and mixed sector performance , maintaining a welldiversified portfolio across different asset classes and sectors remains paramount .
• 7:17
  Broad market ETFs like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , ticker SPY , the iShares CORE S&P 500 ETF , ticker IVV , or the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , ticker VOO , continue to be strong core holdings for exposure to large U.S.
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  companies .
• 7:38
  For even wider exposure across all market capitalizations , the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , ticker VTI , is a suitable choice .
• 7:49
  As always , keep a close eye on upcoming inflation reports and the Federal Reserve's communications , especially regarding the July 29th to 30th FOMC meeting and any signals for future rate adjustments .
• 8:02
  And mark your calendars for that August 1st tariff deadline ; it's a critical event to watch .
• 8:09
  Continue monitoring company earnings reports beyond just the tech sector to gauge the broader health of corporate America and identify those potential opportunities or risks .
• 8:20
  The U.S.
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  stock market is showing incredible resilience and growth , especially driven by technological advancements and positive trade news .
• 8:30
  But the path forward is nuanced , requiring investors to stay attentive to these evolving macroeconomic conditions and their potential impact on different sectors and individual companies .
• 8:42
  That's all for today's Spy Trader .
• 8:45
  Thanks for tuning in , and I'll catch you next time for more market insights !