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The New Orleans Saints Path To An NFC South Title? | Bye Week Update · AFR Saints

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  Speaker 1: Saints are on their bye week, so no game to
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  Speaker 1: preview or predict. But it was interesting because I like
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  Speaker 1: to follow some of the sports betting angles and some
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  Speaker 1: of the advanced metrics just for projectability, you know, odds
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  Speaker 1: of for example, in this case, the Saints making the playoffs.
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  Speaker 1: And I to be very clear, I do not think
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  Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints are going to make the playoffs.
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  Speaker 2: I am not. I don't have these.
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  Speaker 1: Illusions of grandeur of them going on this incredible run
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  Speaker 1: and finishing, you know, on this eight game winning streak
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  Speaker 1: or whatever it might be. I don't think that's gonna
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  Speaker 1: happen for New Orleans. But it's interesting just at this
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  Speaker 1: moment we can take pause and say, all right, well,
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  Speaker 1: they won two in a row, can they make it three?
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  Speaker 1: And then they do, can they make it four? And
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  Speaker 1: how that that may go as it continues to progress.
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  Speaker 1: For what it's worth, next Gen Stats projects the Saints
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  Speaker 1: with a four percent playoff probability. Four percent, So keep
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  Speaker 1: in mind that the Saints really have no shot of
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  Speaker 1: being in that winning in that large berth they want out,
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  Speaker 1: they'd be ten and seven. That's not likely to get
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  Speaker 1: you in that large berth. Ten and seven. The hope
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  Speaker 1: would be if you went out and went to ten
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  Speaker 1: and seven, that you could win the division. I don't
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  Speaker 1: think that's going to happen in any way. You'd also
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  Speaker 1: have to look at the rest of the vision that
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  Speaker 1: would what would have to happen there for the Saints
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  Speaker 1: to win the division at ten and seven. Keeping in mind,
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  Speaker 1: as the standings are right now, Atlanta is six and five,
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  Speaker 1: Tampa's four and six, and then the Saints are four
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  Speaker 1: and seven in Carolina's three and seven. So you're excellently
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  Speaker 1: half game better than Carolina, who beat you a Carolina loss.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, we might be having a very different conversation
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  Speaker 1: if the Saints had won in Carolina. However, if the
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  Speaker 1: Saints had won in Carolina, Dannis Allen would likely still
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  Speaker 1: be your code.
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  Speaker 2: So I don't know it is the same thing.
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  Speaker 1: But Darren Rizzy did have this to say about the
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  Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints and what he kind of hopes they
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  Speaker 1: accomplish this week and with their their bye week and
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  Speaker 1: getting healthy late in the season.
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  Speaker 3: When you have a late by like this, it's to
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  Speaker 3: me a little bit of a complete different mentality than
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  Speaker 3: early in the season. Buys and so number one, we
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  Speaker 3: got to rest and relax and get our bodies back
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  Speaker 3: and come back refreshed. I think that's number one. Number two,
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  Speaker 3: you know, we have a little momentum going here over
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  Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks, so I think it's important
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  Speaker 3: that we come back, you know, with that same mentality.
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  Speaker 3: Sometimes when you step away for a minute or two,
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  Speaker 3: it could be easy to kind of lose track, lose focus.
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  Speaker 3: So you know, just coming back, you know, getting some downtime,
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  Speaker 3: everybody getting healed up, getting the bodies right, getting some
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  Speaker 3: good recovery in at the same time, coming back with
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  Speaker 3: a focus and a purpose, and you know, coming back
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  Speaker 3: in the building.
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  Speaker 2: He says the right things.
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  Speaker 1: But there's also the practicality of if you're going to
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  Speaker 1: make a run, what would have to happen. So I'll
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  Speaker 1: kind of spell that out for you here quickly. Obviously,
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  Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints would have to win out. You'd
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  Speaker 1: have to win out to get to ten and seven.
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  Speaker 1: That means you'd have to beat the Rams and at
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  Speaker 1: the Giants, which I think is a winnable game. You
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  Speaker 1: have to come home and beat Washington. You have to
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  Speaker 1: win at Green Bay, and then you're home against the Raiders,
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  Speaker 1: and then you're at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So six
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  Speaker 1: games to go, you'd have to win them all to
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  Speaker 1: get to ten and seven, but you'd likely also need,
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  Speaker 1: not likely, you would need Atlanta to come back to
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  Speaker 1: the pack because they're currently two games ahead of you.
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  Speaker 2: Here's the tricky part. If you look at the.
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  Speaker 1: Remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, Atlanta is twenty first,
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  Speaker 1: the twenty first most difficult remaining strength of schedule with
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  Speaker 1: six games remaining. Politsa please, with six games remaining. They
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  Speaker 1: have three against Minnesota, the Chargers, and the Commanders, but
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  Speaker 1: they also have three games against the Giants, the Raiders,
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  Speaker 1: and the Panthers, So that's the most difficult of the
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  Speaker 1: division remaining. The Saints have six games remaining, they're the
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  Speaker 1: twenty fifth most difficult remaining schedule and we know their games.
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  Speaker 1: And then obviously we're also looking at Tampa Bay, who
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  Speaker 1: currently is at four and seven and excuse me, be
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  Speaker 1: a four and six and they have seven games remaining.
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  Speaker 1: There's only one team that Tampa plays remaining with a
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  Speaker 1: winning record. They play the Chargers.
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  Speaker 2: There are other.
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  Speaker 1: Games the Giants, the Raiders, the Cowboys, the Panthers twice
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  Speaker 1: and the Saints. So if you're looking at what team
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  Speaker 1: in the division might actually be more inclined to make
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  Speaker 1: a playoff push, it's not the Saints getting hot and
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  Speaker 1: going on a run. It's Tampa. Because aside from the
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  Speaker 1: game against the Chargers, Tampa could well be favored in
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  Speaker 1: every one the rest of the way. And it wouldn't
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  Speaker 1: be surprising at all to me if we look up
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  Speaker 1: here in a month and Tampa is the team leading
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  Speaker 1: the division. You know, I think as you look at
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  Speaker 1: the remaining schedules, a worst case for Atlanta is probably
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  Speaker 1: three and three, and if they go three and three,
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  Speaker 1: that puts them at nine and eight.
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  Speaker 2: I think that's a worst case.
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  Speaker 1: A worst case for Tampa, I think is four and
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  Speaker 1: three that would put them at eight and nine. And
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  Speaker 1: I think a worst case for New Orleans again, worst
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  Speaker 1: case would be one in five and that would put
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  Speaker 1: you obviously at five and five and twelve. So now
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  Speaker 1: there's the best case scenario. I think what would have
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  Speaker 1: to happen here is you'd have to have the worst
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  Speaker 1: case scenario for Tampa and Atlanta and the best case
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  Speaker 1: scenario for New Orleans for that to flip just that's
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  Speaker 1: why it's four percent. It's just hard to imagine that happening.
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  Speaker 2: For the most part.
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  Speaker 1: What I'm going to continue to watch for the New
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  Speaker 1: Orleans Saints remainder of the year is I want to
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  Speaker 1: see the young guys continue to develop and play better.
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  Speaker 1: I want to see this team be competitive and win games,
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  Speaker 1: and evaluate Darren Rizzy to see if he would actually
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  Speaker 1: be a candidate for the full time head coaching job.
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  Speaker 1: If the most improbable thing ever happens that the Saints
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  Speaker 1: end up in the playoffs, I'll be standing on my
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  Speaker 1: head with excitement. I'm just not banking on that. What
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  Speaker 1: I actually think is more likely as Tampa goes on
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  Speaker 1: a run and ends up winning the division again