Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 18

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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 18 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: live from our Tommy John Home studios. I am Chad
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Mellman of the Action Network. It is our Sunday night episode.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: We're going to review for one last time this football season.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: The five picks we put into the contest, they are
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: reflective of our entire season so far. We're going to
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: dissect a little bit about why we left some games out,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: but that is not the main event. The main event
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: is we're going to preview the early lines we already
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: like for wildcard playoffs. Some of them are moving already
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: across key numbers. I'm joined at as always by my
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: co host, my companion Mike and Padre, and my bff
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: professional Better Simon Hunter et O Simon.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Hello, Chad, what a day, brother.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: Took eighteen weeks man.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Prior to today, we had seventeen weeks of dogs shitting
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the bed of Favorites, playing perfectly, of living through the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: exact opposite of everything we had relied upon as betters
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: for years, years, and then today the dogs they finally
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: started barking. The bear is covered, the cowboys covered the
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Jacks covered, the Saints covers, the Patriots covered, the Panthers covered,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: even the Texans as dogs against the Tennessee Titans covered.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Of course, the.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Giants did not cover. Somehow, the Giants ended up in
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: our final five, even.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: Though like.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Every other game looked more attractive because the Giants were
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: already be playing all their backups and their third stringers,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: so it didn't matter who they were playing. I don't
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: know how we ended up with that. We did have
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: the Panthers, which is great because we've been banking on
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: them for weeks.
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: We had the Jags. We had the Chiefs.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: That was a bit of a bomber, but everyone seemed
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: to like them, so they all took a hip. We're
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: two and two on the day with the Vikings plus
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: three and a half tonight, let's break it down more importantly.
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: We're going to talk.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: About what we are seeing for any of the early
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: playoff lines. We got four lines posted for the four
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: games that we know are set. Obviously, we're waiting on
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: two NFC matchups tonight based on the Vikings and the
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Lions results.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: Catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: For those on YouTube, don't forget to kIPS, like and
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page as a reminder
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: of the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: ten dollars. Plays a bet for five dollars to get
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: and more.
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary area.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia where eighteen or older in Kentucky.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Let's
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: start with some housekeeping. People want to know performance. How
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: we did during the year. It was not pretty all
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: the time. Foxhol started out h to six, ended eight
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: eight and two Simon says nine, eight and one, executive
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: decision five and thirteen.
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: Big Balls Better The.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Week presented by Tommy Johns started four and ZHO ended
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: eight and ten. That's what happens when you're constantly betting
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: home underdogs. We'll give out the final record from the
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: contest at the end of the show. It's not going
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: to be good New York Giants plus two and a
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: half at Philly.
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: How do we end up with the Giants?
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Of all the dogs that like had things locked up
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: or needed to win to stay like, the Giants were
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: the only ones who were who were never in it.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: I mean they were down four.
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: They had a chance at the end there, and they
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: obviously punted the ball back to the Eagles. I don't
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: think they got the ball back, but yeah, better bad
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: number was a bad bet. We basically bet on a
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: team that you know, should have realized they came off
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: their Super Bowl and yeah, our quarterback Drew lock in
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: that first half, did nothing, basically put up a gooseg
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: in Tanry McKee didn't even play that great, but he
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: played well enough to get them to seventeen points, which
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: you know, I guess they won. They got twenty at
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: the end there. But yeah, Eagles, like you just said,
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: Eagles playing their backups. The Giants been playing their backups
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: for weeks. Look like the Giants or the team that
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: was rusty. So yeah, that was a bad one and
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: obviously it's even more brutal. And that's the only dog
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: that doesn't cover the early slate. So it's thanks. We
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: had a lot of dogs we liked.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: This week ended up on a bad one at a
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: bad number.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Did not come through bad, very bad, all bad all
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: the way around, because we liked We talked about the Bears,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: we talked about the freaking Saints, like the number of
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: parlays we had on the money line and on these
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: underdogs to cover. The Giants were barely in any any
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: of these things for me.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: But whatever, at least it's over.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Malik Neighbors did set a Giants record for most receptions
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: in a season, and the announcers were making such a
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: big deal about this because really it's their job, and
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: what else are you going to do? Can you think
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: of a Giants receiver in history that's actually worth fawning
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: over other than Odell who was not historically great or
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: even great for longevity?
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: Can you think of one Plexico man.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Come on, dude, come on, I'm thinking historically great like
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: the way and this by the way, tumor no. The
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: answer to my next question will prove my point because
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: they were making such a big deal Malik Neighbors franchise
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: record for most receptions in a season.
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: That's a big deal.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's so amazing the Giants, such a
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: historic franchise. I could not think of anybody who is
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: worthy as a great receiver, a Hall of Fame caliber
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: receiver for the New York Football Giants. And then, because
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: I'm like, who cares, like, it's the freaking Giants right
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: then they gave the answer to who set the record.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Do you know who it was.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: Who had the Giants record or the NFL.
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: Giants record for most receptions in the season.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: Hmm, that's shocking. It's not Odell.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Steve Steve Smith, and not the Steve Smith you're thinking of,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: the one who's finalist for.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: The Eagle Steve Smith.
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: Steve Smith, I.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Think he went to like USC or something, was it
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: early two thousands, Like, that's the guy who set the record.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So that says all you need to know about how
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: much this team needs a reset.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know, it's I'd be excited, like they they
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: got their receiver. Now they just need an offensive line
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: and a quarterback. Yeah, good luck Giants.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Ask the Bears how that's going. You just need an
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: offensive line. You just need a quarterback. You got your receivers.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: You're fine on the edges. You just need those two things.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Easier said than done. Jacksonville at Indy. We had Jacksonville
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half. You know how the people
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: who run the media, all the NFL executives who decide
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: when they're really going to what games on red zone,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: how little they think of Jacksonville and Indy, even though
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: it was a riveting game. Because in the first half,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: despite multiple lead changes and a field goal less than
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: forty seconds in a half, I think out of red
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: zone I saw maybe three.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: Plays from this game.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: They would just go to it like, you know, after
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: the fact, they weren't going to it in real time.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: They'd show you the highlight. But this was a great game,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: played exactly the way we thought it would.
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a definitely a corner of TV.
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: At the sports book, there was me and a couple
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: other guys all huddled around it I mean, the funny
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: thing was that next to that TV in the corner
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: was that Buck Saints game. I think after maybe the
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: first quarter they moved to the main TV. It was like, okay,
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: this because people are going wild about you know, Survivor
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: Contest every like that. I mean, it really was a
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: really fun day at the book sweating out Survivor Contest
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: people like us who are betting dogs, like there's a
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: lot of dog love in the building today, and yeah,
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: it was. It was pretty surreal, uh, coming down the
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: wire for a lot of those games, So yeah, I
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: get what you're saying, though definitely was not you know,
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: they went to overtime and I think maybe five of
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: us knew that because even red Zone didn't cut into it.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: And in overtime, man, I thank god I didn't text you.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: I was going to text you, but basically got overtime
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: and they the Colts, got the ball first, and I
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: just in my mind was like, oh my god, here
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: hear me and Chad go again. And you know, another
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: game we did today went overtime, so at the same time,
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: I was just like, oh my god, deja vu. Two
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: dogs going over time. But yeah, like we're hoping chat
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: looks like it's the year of the Dog, because you
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: know they've got a big fourth down stop that Jags team,
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: and you know, got the field going overtime. But Mac Jones,
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: man like, it was crazy how he kept getting us
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: back from the dead. We kept getting touchdowns from him,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: He kept doing it, got that field goal at the
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: end and go to overtime. And yeah on fourth and
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: twenty two through a nice middle of the field fifteen
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: yard pass just to end the game. Put us out
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: our misery. No pick six, no strip sack, no passing behind.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: So felt good, you know, better good number. You know,
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: I had a ton of money on four and a half,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: a bunch of money on four obviously, some money on
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: the three and a half, and I'm just like, oh
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: my god, I'm going to lose all these numbers. And
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: it was nice, nice thing. It kind of felt like
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: the game win as it should. The Colts just don't
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: cover against the Jaguards. It's bizarre, but we love those
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: type of trends and I'm happy it came through for
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: us and the fans.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: Here's a theory.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: So ever since Mac Jones started playing, this team had
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: played with more fire, more passion, they were scrappier, more energized,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: seemed to be having so much more fun than when
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence was playing. Right, And you think back to
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Doug Peterson when he was the Eagles coach. When did
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: he have his greatest success.
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: The six seven, eight week run.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: After the superstar MVP caliber quarterback Carson Wentz went out
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: and he had Nick Foles backup quarterback, Everyone's rallying around
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: the guy. Is it possible that Doug Peterson is a
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: better scrappy, not as talented quarterback coach than he is
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: a uber talented quarterback head coach.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: No, what helped him is he got to play Tennessee
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: to it the last five weeks, so he got two
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: wins there. And obviously, I mean you joked about that
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Colts team is just atrocious, Like Brian Thompson Jr. Was
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: just such It's crazy different levels he guys are at.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: He's at such a different level than anyone that could
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: even defend him on the Colts team. So, yeah, Mac Jones,
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: he knew the assignment. Just throw it down the Brian
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: Thompson junior, he'll get it. And yeah, he saved our
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: asked today because I'm not gonna lie. They drove to
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: field that opening possession scored a touchdown. The cold time,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: I was like, well, we basically he met the answer
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: and he did. And you know, we didn't even talk
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: about yet that Panthers game. But you know, there's a
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: lot of things happened in a two minute warning in
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: both these games. And in this game, you know, I
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: think they're down seven and a half time because you
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: know they kicked the ball back.
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, was able to drive.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: The field and get a field goal. So tough, tough
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: when you're always behind it. But it's like we always say,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: like we trusted the number, trusted the spot, and yeah,
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: it's nice when it comes through with the the numbering
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: literally land exactly what we thought it should. You said
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: the number should be three. It was three and a half.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: We took the value and it came through.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: The announcers on the Texans Titans games said something interesting.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: They talked about Davis Mills and him trying to perform
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: so well for the Texans, and Davis Mills said to them,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: He's like, look, these games might not mean anything, but
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: just someone like me, it's extra time in the league
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: as a backup court, her.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: Back if I play well, and Carson Wentz that same thing.
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: What's that said?
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: Carson Wentz said the same thing.
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: Well, he might have cut his time in half.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Mac Jones, I feel like gave himself another five years
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: in the league with his performance.
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: True last six weeks.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor, by the way, I had one hundred and
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: seventy seven yards rushing in his last four games of
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: the year. He averaged one hundred and fifty six yards rushing. Sure, game,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: pretty amazing, quietly dominated at the end of the year.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: All the talk about Derrick Henry and Saquon and even
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Bijon who had one hundred and seventy yards rushing. Today,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: we're going to get to that game. Jonathan Taylor. Nice job.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: And by the way, even with all the touchdown you know,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Drama still had five touchdowns in those four games.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: I mean Cooks for I want to give Cook's love
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: for the Bills as well. You think he had sixteen
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: touchdowns man much. I think he set the Bills record.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: Pretty pretty insane year for running backs.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Really was really incredible year. Likely and Kyrin Williams, who
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: didn't even play, Yeah amazing. Yeah, all right, Carolina Atlanta,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: So we had we had Carolina plus eight and a
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: half Game of the Day, Bet of the.
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: Day, Team of the Day.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: You know you mentioned you were at the sports book.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: My younger son plays rec league basketball. It doesn't it's
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: like it's just him and his buddies fucking around, but
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: it's like an organized league, and the games are really
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: fun because he's playing with all those buddies that you know,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: we've known in various stages throughout school. And obviously he's
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: going to go to college next year because he's a
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: senior in high school. So my wife and I want
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: to go to these games because it's fun to see
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: all these kids that you know, goofing around and it's
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: you know, hanging out and you know, acting like idiots together.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: But of course, like it's happening from three thirty to
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: four thirty. So I bring my phone to the game
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: and I'm watching the end of the game and I've
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: got my notebook out, and one of the kids is.
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: Like, what are you doing? Are you scouting?
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Like he thought I was taking notes on the other team,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Like I'm working, asshole, And this game was going back
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: and forth on my little tiny screen and like I'm
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: going to say it right now I think we're fucked
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: next year because we talked so much about the Panthers
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: heading into the season. They became the team we thought
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: they would be, but it wasn't until midway through the season,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: after everyone had stopped listening to us or just thought
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: we were idiots. So now we're going to start next
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: year talking about the Panthers again because we love this team.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: We love this team. Even Dave Canalis said we got
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: our guy. He finally admitted it after Bryce Young's game today.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: He was awesome.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: I think for the most part though people had jumped
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: on board.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: I would say I went from getting I don't know
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: fifty death threat hate dms and Twitter replies about them too.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: Some nice things said to us about us, like knowing
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: when to jump back in, about how much they love
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: and enjoy betting this Panther team, and how they were
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: gonna ride with us one last time today, and yeah
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: they you know they're a savior in the money line
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: parlay right. They came through big time and that was
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: another game though it made me sick to my stomach.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: Right where dominating the first half and they basically gave
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: up fourteen points in a minute fifty seconds or a
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: minute forty five seconds. It was like, this is why
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: people hate betting this team. It's like, you do everything right,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: bruts Shunk plays so well in your defense, just totally
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: lays an egg and rolls over in the final two minutes.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: They've just done it consistently this season. Like they just
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: are so bad in the two minute drill. But Bryce
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: young Man, what a game. You know, the throws he
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: makes even today, run in the ball, like he just
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: looks so confident and comfortable in this game. And it's
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: like that's that was probably the most fun part by
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: watching it.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: The past five six weeks. He has smiled, he's confident,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: he's making just baller throws really amazing throws down the
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: seams on the sidelines, so accurate, finding guys in the
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: end zone. How about that play I can't remember if
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: it was in the first half or the second half
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: where he threw the ball and before the guy had
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: caught it, he did what Lamar did yesterday, turned around,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: had his back to the play and had his arms
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: in the air signaling touchdown. Like the guy's just loving
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: playing right now. So here's my question for you. The
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Falcons come close to winning the division. Only had a
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: few games with Michael Pennix, who I would say was
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: good ish. I think people can be fooled into believing
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: he was better than he was because his arm is
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: so good and he can just whip the ball. But
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: he also was incredibly inaccurate and didn't make great decisions
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: all the time. Obviously, only had a few games. Meanwhile,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: the Panthers finished five and twelve. Which one of these
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: teams do you think has more optimism about next year?
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: Probably still Atlantic because they have a lot of the
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: pieces in place where I agree. I'm excited for the Panthers,
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: Like I think they know what they need to do right,
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: just spend all their money on the defensive side, like
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: the offense went healthy, like true, Barb will be back.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't know what the deals with the
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: rookie they drafted this year. He kept getting injured, and
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: I think he got reinjured this season when he came back.
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: You know, they have a lot to build around.
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: Talking out Xavier Lagette that there was no.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: That's the wide receiver that they drafted a running back?
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: Oh oh right, that kid from Texas Jonathan. I forgot
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: his name, but.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, stud like probably probably the best running back Brooks.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: There we go, thank you, that's right, that's yeah, but
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: I told you there were the biggest issue is that
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: there was no secret that this stretch, you know, these
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: last eight games, Feeling was the best receiver. Yes, like
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: there's no doubt about it. And that's that is a
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: problem when you're best receive is a dude who we
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: think he'll be back next year.
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: He should come back, but it's not. It's not great,
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: you're not.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: You don't want to be in a position when you
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: have a guy in his mid thirties as your best receiver.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the Atlanta thing, you know, not that we
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: knew they were gonna lose. He right talked about the
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: numbers on PENIX. When you really dived into it and
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: broke it down. He does look good on film when
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: you break it down and look at the numbers. There
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: are things he struggles with, like he's not that accurate
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: of a quarterback as people think. And we kind of
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: saw in this game, right, he was a little inconsistent,
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: even though he put up a ton of points. He
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: had basically I mean second and five, second and four
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: every time he had the ball, like Robinson dominated that game,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: like we thought he.
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: Was seventy yards.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: It's like I think the Panthers gave up two hundred
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: yards rushing the final six weeks of the year.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's again I'm just so excited for the
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: Panthers where they really made us look like right, idiot
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: fools for nine weeks, ten weeks there and then you
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: kind of saw now what we saw coming to the season,
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: which is like this team had a ton of potential,
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: a ton of upside, and just a huge drive for them.
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: Like we talk about the time like these bad teams,
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: you win this type of game, just like years ago
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: with Detroit Lions, and this is Zack scenario. You win
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: this type of game, it's sets a tone for the
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: upcoming season and the motivation for the guys because, like
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: we figured out the time, how human this is, Like
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: again we talk about the hangover the super Bowl. I
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: saw a great quote by Deebo Samuel where he loses
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: the Super Bowl he couldn't leave his house. He said
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: he was so depressed for a month, and it was like,
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: holy shit, we got OTAs like that's how quick this
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: season comes on you. Where it's like he said he
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: couldn't get it. He still wasn't have the funk even
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: coming to this year. He said he just could not
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: get out of that Super Bowl funk. So setting the
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: tone for the upcoming season, it's the ultimate high vibes
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: and there's no doubt mean you were going to be
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: sucked back in on this Panthers team. I'm just so
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: happy and excited about this team's future.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, we're so screwed, like we are going
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: to be so many Like it's going to be so terrible.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: You're not wrong about the Super Bowl.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: So I had lunch on Friday with friend of the
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: pod Seth Wickersham, and I did pitch him on the
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Sean McVay and Baker Mayfield idea that I said I
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: wanted to pitch him on.
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: Totally liked it. Then he tried to piss in it.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Like the old joke is an editor walks up to
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: an oasis in the desert with a writer and the
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: writer's like, oh my god, it's perfect, and the editor jokes,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: oh wait, I can make it better, and then he
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: starts to piss in it. And I gave Seth this
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: brilliant idea. He's like, oh my God, I love this idea,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: and then he starts coming up with these other things.
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: I'm like, guy, what's the matter with you?
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: I'm giving you a gift, and he still tried to
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: make is something that it wasn't. We were talking about
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl between the Chiefs and the Niners and
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: how people forget that black kick right, and like the
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: Niners were so close. Kyle Shanahan was out coaching Andy
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Reid and beating Patrick Mahomes and like one block kick
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: leads to one drive leads to a game time field goal.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: It's like, I understand it.
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: I do.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: The Panther's going to be in that spot one day,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Bus ten and a half at Denver. Look,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: we loved it. Everybody loved it. And Carson Wentz couldn't
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: stand in the field. The Chiefs d couldn't get off
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: the field. First quarter and a half, the Chiefs had
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: six plays, the Broncos had three touchdowns.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: Bo Nicks was eighteen for eighteen with.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Nearly two hundred yards and three touchdowns before he had
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: an in completion, Like it was dead from the start.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Congrass to you, by the way, because I'm convinced me
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: you gave away the under forty and a half and
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: it played out. The Chiefs did exactly what you said
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: they were going to do. Run the ball, burn the clock.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: It just so happened. The Broncos tried to score every
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: time they had the ball, except like the last seven
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: minutes of the game.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: And that's why I love veter veteran coaches. Though Andy
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: Reid was just so brutally honest. He's like, if they
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: would allow me to play with the running clock in
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: this game, I would play with running clock. And I
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: didn't honestly think the Chiefs would just know show like
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: they did. But I do think it was the Bonnicks effect,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: where you know, we talked about coming to this game,
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: Bonix had been struggling down the stretch here and we
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: were seeing here that in that first half bon Nicks,
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: like you just said, he was eighteen and nineteen, two
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: hundred and eighty two yards, three touchdowns, one hundred and
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: fifty three passer rating, Like, what are we going to do? Chad?
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: So that was dead from the dead from the start,
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: like you said, Carson Wentz, I think he went three
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: and out on three straight drives on the flip side.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: Bonnick scored three straight touchdowns and terrible bet. You know,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: a day where a bunch of the Temple and Dogs
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: came through our big dog once again, we just can't
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: hit the mark man. It's all yeah, all the.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Fact that the Saints covered, the Patriots covered, the Bears covered,
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: like we.
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: Knew them, the Chiefs, like when Evan told us they
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: were the most bet.
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I know when I saw that this morning, yeah
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: I know, but I was already like I already made
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: my bet.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: I kind of had to laying it, like I honestly
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: couldn't get out of it. So that was definitely one
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: that hurt where it's like, man, we saw the signs
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: telling us to get out, and we kept we pushed ahead.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: Where Yeah, the biggest regret definitely on the day is
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: not having the Bears or the Cowboys, where we both
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: loved those. The Cowboys want scared me off there because
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: the Trey lance, but yeah, the Bears wanted to just
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: hurt because it was like that was the dream. We
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: just knew how do they were, and we talked about it.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: I let the trend scare me off, but yeah, to me,
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: like again, we didn't we didn't have the contest, but
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: that was my favorite game of the day, That Bears game.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: It had everything the highs and why I love betting
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: of like I won and died that money line a
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: thousand times on the Bears and they're just they were
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: the chaos team of the year. I mean, we joked
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: that that Hell Mary they were Would they have four
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: wins going to that Hell Mary? Five wins?
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: No? They stopped winning after that.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: Right, That's what I mean. So that was their first
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: win since that Hell Mary. And it's like, it's just
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: crazy how a little play like that can determine a.
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: Whole team season eleven in a row.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: And they I was watching this game again, watching this game,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: you know, at the West Harford Rec League basketball game. Uh,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: and everybody's saying to me, like, you can't just watch
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: the watch the kids, you gotta watch the game. I'm like,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: I'm working, I am actually working. And uh, I watched
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: the Bears. They ran they like manage the clock, they
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: spiked the ball, they got the field goal, they ran
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: around like they had won the Super Bowl or the
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: West Hartford Rec League Championship, acting like they had never
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: won before, because they really haven't. And now the good
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: news is the Bear's going to interview Thomas Brown, the
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: current interim head coach, to be their new head coach.
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Super excited about that this is all going to go.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Great Bear's one in honor of Virginia Pallas McCaskey, who
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: turned one hundred and two today. Can you believe that
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the NFL is one hundred and five years old. She's
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: been around for one hundred and two of those years.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's good to be rich.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: I wonder how liquid they are though. They're not like
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: Josh harre It's you know, you know, like the Harris
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Blitzer capital rich. They're like, you know, football rich. I
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: don't think they can pull a lot out of that yet.
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: Like this whole country's built on people buying things they
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: don't have money for. It's just loaning money out to
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: the assets they already own. So I'm sure they're doing
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: all right.
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not going to cry for them.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: My favorite incentive is from today. Gino Smith got six
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: million dollars in incentives. We talked about it the other day,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: four million for his forgetting more than one hundred and
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: eighty five passing yards in the game that got him
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: over the season total he needed to get for a
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: two million dollar incentive. Finished the season above seventy percent
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: completion percentage, got a two million dollars incentive for that.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Got the Seahawks to ten wins, got a two million
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: incentive for that. Mike Evans got his incentive for thousand yards.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: He went crazy on the last play of the game.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: That was amazing.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Great.
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: What I've loved with this is how unabashedly.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Aware the players are of their incentives and how excited
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: their teammates are for him. But then also how the
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: announcers are, Just like Von Miller just got one point
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: five million for that sack, Kalayas Campbell just got three
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand for that seck. Jim Nantz was so excited
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: when Courland Sutton got his any nine catch. He's like,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: he just got five hundred thousand dollars for that catch.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Like it was insane how excited people were.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the von Miller might have been my favorite. He
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: literally just one handed push Strake May and then he
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: just knew right away that that counts as a sack.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: It was just a very veteran awesome moment for von
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: Miller getting his money.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: All Right, our final record in the contest. We are
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: nothing if not accountable. People don't ever say we're not.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: We talk about our records every single week. We have
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: Minnesota three and a half in the contest, thirty nine
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: and fifty on the year across seventeen completed weeks, finished
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: with five weeks, finished five.
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: Weeks with a winning record. Just terrible.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: It's not as bad as I thought though.
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: Really.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly I was expecting the worst. Brother. We've been
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: terrible this year.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, these favorites have just crushed us, absolutely
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: crushed us.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: It's our first losing season. It hurts, but we'll bounce
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: back next year. Don't lose faith people.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: Well, the big question is going to be do we overcompensate?
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: Is this year in our head? Are we betting road favorites?
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Are we afraid to bet the dogs? How much do
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: we think like the thirty yard line start or.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: The five dogs today? Chad, We're not. We have not
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: changed at all. What are you even talking about?
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: All right? Wild card lines?
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: The one NFC line that we have so far, green
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Bay plus three and a half at Philly your first instinct.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're basically begging you to take Green Bay
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: and I'm gonna throw a quick, quick penny on the
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: Eagles right there. It was three. The lines moved basically
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: off of a couple of key injuries, right, Jordan Love
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: got Watson, Watson got hurt. I think another receiver of
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: theirs might have got hurt in this game. You know
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: already talked about Jerry or Alexander missing this this game,
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: he's done for the season pretty much, so yep, you
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: know they're missing their deep threat, rye receiver, the number
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: one cornerback, and their quarterbacks banked up like this number
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: is gonna keep going up. If the news comes out
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: it's anything worse and they might be playing a backup,
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: which I honestly don't hate for Green Bay if they're
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: stuck in that position because I think and you both agree,
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: where Jordan Love has just been shaky. Even that game
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: before he got hurt, he did not look comfortable, like
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: he never got into a rhythm against that Bears team
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: and Eagles. You know, as much as people want to
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: bash him about some of their weaker competition, they still
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: are the number one pass defense this season. So it's like,
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: if Green Bay wants to lean into them just running
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: the ball, that would be nice for them, but to me, yeah,
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: I can't already tell you this number is gonna be
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: too low. Like I honestly thought this would open up four.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: I was excited to tell us to bet the Eagles
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: at three. I'm still happy to take the three and
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: a half. I can just see this going up, especially
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: if the injury news does come out. This is gonna
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: get up to what six or seven?
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: Chaid, Yeah, my first instinct on this was we're betting
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: the Eagles. Like I just I keep thinking about this defense.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: It's just it's so good, and in the latter half
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: of the year it's been so dominant, and I keep
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: thinking about their defensive tackles and the strength of the Packers.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Whether it's Jordan Love or anyone else, is going to
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: be Josh Jacobs running up the middle.
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: That's how they win the game, right.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: They lean into him early, they try to establish the
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: line of scrimmage, they try to get some touchdowns early
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: in the game based on him. As soon as they
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: go away from him, they start to struggle. We've seen
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: that every single time, and I don't even know if
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: they'll be able to take advantage of him as much
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: as they have in the past, because that defensive line
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: for the Eagles is so freaking good.
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right where like that's the Eagles
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: are going to stack the box like the burner. They've
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: lost their burner now like the guy on the outside
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: that kind of get threaten you. I know, Watson hasn't
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: a great season because he's just been injured all the time.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: But you know, he tried to fight through the injury
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: come back today and I think he got carted out
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: of the stadium Like that's how bad whatever happened to him.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: So yeah, unlucky for the Packers. But again they're the
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: seventh seats, so it's like this is a very respectable
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: line for a seventh seat. I think at this exact
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: point last year against Dallas, I think we got them
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: an eight point doll right, didn't we get So yeah,
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: the books are given the respect to Green Bay right
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: now on this opening line. I think it's too much respect.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: They're getting good value and my favorite me and you'll
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: enjoyed this, Chad. Guess who's also one to five in
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: the division other than the Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: So you guys have the same divisional record this season
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: as the Green Bay Packers.
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: It's not even a rivalry. Doesn't matter, doesn't matter.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Denver Bronco speaking of a seven seed and a two
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: seed and an eight point line, Broncos are eight and
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: a half on the road at Buffalo.
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: Give me Buffalo.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And this is interesting though certain books have this
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: eight and a half. A couple of books already have
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: this at seven and a half, so it might be
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: early professional money betting this Denver team. But I'm right
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: David with you. I hate it. I mean, we're so
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: chalked to start here, but this feels like two different
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: levels of class. And I'm happy for you. Bo Nick's
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: incredible game today, it felt like they ran just two
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: coverages the entire games. The Chiefs they simply did not
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: try in any sense of the game. And Bonnix the
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: season has been a road Warrior chat. So you know,
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: usually we try to do our four best bets for
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: wild Card weekend. I don't know if this will be
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: one of my for maybe it'll be Chad's.
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: On the Bills.
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: But opening line here minus seven and a half, I
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: got to take that with this Bills team.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: By the way, for folks who are watching on YouTube,
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: Simon's having some camera issues, so we apologize he's just
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: blacking out for a second or two. But it's not
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: affecting audio or rhythm, or our ability to talk.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: To each other or our love for each other.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: By the way, we were fifty and forty last season,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: so a reversal it happens.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: You know, my worst year in the.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: History of dogs. What do they want from us? They
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: know the show is I know, I know.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Does Matt Mitchell have an opinion on this Bills game?
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: As our resident Bill's expert? How does he feel about
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: such a huge line against a Sean Payton bon Nicks team?
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: Chad, I spend almost every playoff season consume with anxiety
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: about the Buffalo Bills as someone that just needs to
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: see them win one Super Bowl so I can put
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: down that heavy leg for the rest of my life. However,
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: I never worry about wild Card weekend. My life will
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: be ruined when the Bills inevitably lose at some point
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: this playoffs. It won't come in the wildcard round. I
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: just don't see that coming. And maybe I'm inviting disaster.
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: I'm like, I don't need to invite disaster. Disaster will
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: find its way to me, I'm just not gonna fucking
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: worry about Bonnix on the road, So I wish them
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: the best of luck.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: Let's go back Pittsburgh Steelers. They cannot move the ball
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: on offense. They have been a train wreck for four
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: games in a row. Simon, you had been predicting sort
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: of Russell Wilson's moon balls being shot down to earth.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: They have been, and this past weekend against the Bengals,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: George Pickens couldn't catch them.
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: Now they're gonna be on the road.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Eight and a half point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: We know all the stats, and again, like we got
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: shows Tuesday, we got shows Thursday, we got a lot
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: to unpack. I'm not going to go into detail on
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: the records, but we know that other than this past
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: the last time they just played, these games are generally
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: underdogs cover very very short, very very small spreads. So
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: this is an anomaly to have this big of a number,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: and it's entirely based on what we saw on Saturday.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: I think.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: Exactly no one's We're the only us in professionals and
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: trend betters are betting the Pittsburgh team. Everyone is going
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: to throw in the bills with this Ravens team into
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: their moneyline, parlays into their teasers. It doesn't get much easier.
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: And this is base every year chat and hey, we
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: might get caught here. You know we did last year
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: in this exact scenario of trying to fade Lamar in
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: round one. But we know Lamar.
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: It's just different in the playoffs. He gets tighter and now.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: He's facing this team that historically has been his kryptonite.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, people act like he answered the demons in
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: that last matchup, but it's like they're one on one
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: on the season against this team. They split and it's
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: like this is the defense that knows how to figure out. Now,
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: you know, we don't know the status of JJ Watt
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: at this point.
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: That's a big deal, JDJ.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: That's a big deal for me, And you're right, like,
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: that's that guy is a huge deal against Lamar and
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: stopping what he's so specialized, which is creating plays on
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: the fly with his legs.
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: So no rush to bet it.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm gonna grab as soon as we get
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: off this call, I'm gonna drive him to Philly. Grab
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: a couple eight and a halfs where I can, but
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: would be shocked if this keeps going up, just because
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: I know professional money's gonna come in on Pittsburgh.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: It's just it's the professional side.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: This was gonna be the easiest bet. As soon as
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: I saw how I was laying out that Pittsburgh was
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: gonna lose to Cinci, I was like, oh my god,
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: We're gonna get Pittsburgh at at the Ravens in round one,
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: and it's gonna be us against everyone else. Like no
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: one's going to be back on this Pittsburgh team, especially
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: the way they've looked. And I mean we all agree
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: like they got a lucky covering that last game. I mean,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: it was just incredible, incredible how they came back and
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: covered that. But that's life when you were kicking field goals,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: which is what since he did, and I think the
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: same can be said here, Chad. It feels the type
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: of game where Lamar might be able to move the
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: ball up and down the field, but I think he's
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: going to struggle against this Pittsburgh team in the red zone.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: And yeah, this is a big one too. We'll wait
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: and see if it's all about the injuries, right, we've
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: seen the difference since this Pittsburgh team has had a
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: couple of kindreies to their defense as well, right, like
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: the secondary, big deal, the defensive line, it's a big deal.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: So again, not rushing to make a ton of bets
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: on this one, but I'd be shocked if this is
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: one of our four.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Well, look, it's a huge deal. Like that secondary. They
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: were getting beat up by the Bengals until T. Higgins
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: went out.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: Everybody, I mean, everything they've played in the stretchers been
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: attacking that second there Jing.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: So I think we need a lot of You're gonna
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: go bet the eight and a half, but you still
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: think the number is gonna go to nine, nine and
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: a half.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: I think there's a possibility just because we talked about
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: the injuries, Like if there's no TJ. Watt, I mean
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: the books might have to take it to ten to
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: get some money. Resistance against this Ravens team. This is
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: the darling of the league right now. I mean they've
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: they've been incredible down the stretch here, and you know
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: that back door crazy cover they had against Cleveland. It
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: sets a tone, right they were sloppy and bad in
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: that game, and they blew them out. I mean, they
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: dominated them in that second half. So it's just the
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: public opinion couldn't be any lower on the s Pittsburgh team.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: I know Evan's gonna have this amazing stature. You're basically
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: this rare, rare era of a team that's on a
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: four game losing streak cutting into the playoffs, or maybe
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: it's five game loser streak. I think it's four Basically
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: teams of this Zach scenario. They tend to cover in
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: the playoffs like no one's no one's gonna buy on them,
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: so the books are gonna give you a big number.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: They tend to step up when of the matter, most
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: especially in the playoffs.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: I think one of the one of the biggest problems
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: we had this year is because the favorites kept winning.
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: We definitely, at least I did.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: I can't speak for you entirely, but I think we
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: definitely let a little bit of recency bias seep into
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: some of our handicapping more than we have in the past.
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: And when I say we, I mean me. I'm not
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: going to speak for you. Yeah, I had no problem
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: ben favorites.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: I definitely just in the sense of I was out
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: putting as much big money as I normally would on dogs,
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: just because what we talked about, I do think I
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: need more time to dive into the whole kickoff and
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: teams started the thirty and house. So many teams just
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: went forward on fourth down this season at midfield Like
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: It's just it was a very unique season that that's
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: sometimes I have to adjust and update my model.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: For last game that we have a number four Chargers
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: three point favorites on the road at the Houston Texans,
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: I thinking about what this line was going to be
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: when I was watching the end of the Raiders Chargers game. Obviously,
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: the last few weeks, we've loved the.
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: Chargers and.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: They have not been a team we've been afraid to
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: bet as favorites on the road. I was a little
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: surprised this number opened as big as it did. I
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: just thought it would be closer to pick, to be honest.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: So all of a sudden this felt I was like
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: looking forward to betting the Chargers, and I'm less looking
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: forward to it now.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's three, and there is a line up
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: for Tampa Washington, so we can break that one down.
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: But yeah, this line being minus three, to me, that's
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: a Chargers line like you said, when it was three
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: and a half, I was like, fuck, am I really
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: gonna to bet Houston here? But a minus three? How
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: do we not take that Charger's number like they're they're
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: the more complete team as we head into this exact spot.
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: Like Houston, they did this smart thing today they played
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: their starters, which is one of the reasons where it's
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: like not that I hated Tennessee today and moving off
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: of it because they were playing their starters for in Houston,
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: but it was more of like, Okay, that's that's a
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: smart decision. I know a lot of people might hate
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: on it, but it's like they have not found a
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: rhythm in weeks Houston's offense, so that was nice for
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: them to get the opening drive there. But the Chargers
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: even today, like how they dominated with exactly how we
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: talked we said they would, right, They just way for
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: you to make a mistake, and this Houston team has
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: made a munch of mistakes. And you know, defense is
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: no they can just shade to Nico Collins, just put
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: a guy over top of the guy underneath and you know,
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: force CJ to beat you in other areas and he
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: just hasn't done it down the stretcher, especially against good teams.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you that you know, obviously, in the
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: perfect world this would have been a pick. Mean, you
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: would be hammering this Chargers line. But I still think
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: there's value on the minus three. This number feels right.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: I don't want to bet Houston, so I'm open we
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: can get this in our picks at the end of
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: the week, but I'd be shocked if stage three. I
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: could easily see this going up to three and a
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: half unless there is some respective professor some money come
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: on the other side. I just I can't see it.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: This Houston team, it felt like they overachieved last year,
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: got lucky to being a weak division this year, and
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: they're basically running to a team that it's pretty legit
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: in the Chargers team.
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: So what I don't see a Tampa Washington line? What
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: do you have? Sure right now? They opened at three.
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: So when we came on here, I staid it to
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: I was like, oh my god, you can get Tampa
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: mice two and a half right now against Washington. That
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: was a gift. Mine three is still a gift to me,
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: Like you're getting a rookie on the road here at
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: a field goal against a veteran Bucks team that you know,
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: that was their game from hell today. Everything was going wrong,
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: they found a way like that was as an Eagles fan,
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: I was praying for them to blow that game. I
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: would much rather face the Penix Atlanta team than this
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: veteran Bucks team. So you know, another game that was
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: probably one of my favorite wins of the day, Like
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: that was it was truly theater in the sportsbook. You
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: had grown men crying about Atlanta losing and then other
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: grown men crying because they won on their Bucks and
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: it was just really fun for survivor pools. So yeah,
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: this is a Bucks team that I like this number.
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: I want to fade Washington and I'm sure the public
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: will come in on Washington because of what the Bucks
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: did today and people kind of dismissing them. And I
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: totally get Jane Daniels the upside, and we talked about
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: the variants. With him a fourth down, they could easily
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: win this game. Like this is a good, a strong
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: number at plus three if you want to take it,
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: and at two and a half, I'm way more confident
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: on the bucket three. I'm not dying to take it,
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: but that's That's where I'm at right now. I like
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: them as just like the Chargers. I think they're the
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: better team. They deserve their respect. They're unlike the Chargers.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: They're at home here. That feels like a really good
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: number at home against the rookie. He was on the
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: road in his first playoff start.
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: Baker is ballin.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: He was not going to lose that game today, And
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: I actually agree with you. To me, this was one
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: of their most impressive wins of the past two seasons
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: because they were just getting destroyed. They could have been
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: glassy eyed and lost confidence on the sideline and been
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: asking themselves, what's happening, why aren't we winning, like starting
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: to blame themselves, losing their composure that if they had
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: one more series, they probably would have covered that game.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: Like they just wanted going away. In the second half,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: they stopped making stupid mistakes. Bucky Irving, you know, was
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: running wild, which I think will be in an advantage
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: against the Commander's defense. We saw what Rico Daubdel did today,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: Like they did not have a problem moving the ball
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: with Trey Lance against the Commander's defense that was trying
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: for much of the game. So don't hate it, but
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: we're going to dig in more, a lot more, Yeah,
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: a lot more to say. We got to do some research,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: some fine tuning. Got to see how these numbers move,
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: see who's injured, see how the seedings finally play out.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: After the Vikings and Packers game tonight, reminder, we have
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota Kings plus three and a half in the
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: contest our last pick of the year. We're going to
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: sweat it out and what might be the best game
• 45:06
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