Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 17 Gambling Preview
Transcript
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- 1:27Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
- 1:32Speaker 1: We are still the most popular supports betting podcast in
- 1:35Speaker 1: America as we head into the final week of twenty one.
- 1:42Speaker 1: I am Shad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
- 1:47Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, Week seventeen is upon us two weeks
- 1:53Speaker 1: left in the regular season, two weeks to make big
- 1:56Speaker 1: money off of many, many games. I am joined by
- 2:00Speaker 1: my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre, Diamond
- 2:05Speaker 1: Hunter Professional Better. My brother Dad Rome was there, buddy.
- 2:09Speaker 1: We're almost through the holiday season. People are people are
- 2:12Speaker 1: asking me, you guys taking off no days off chat.
- 2:15Speaker 1: There is no holiday break for me and you. We're
- 2:17Speaker 1: gonna pla right on through what we got left two
- 2:19Speaker 1: months about. It's uh yeah, forget that noise. It's definitely
- 2:25Speaker 1: this is one of my favorite times a year because
- 2:27Speaker 1: all the games, like playoff games and this past weekend
- 2:31Speaker 1: those were fun games. A lot of those games are
- 2:33Speaker 1: so competitive, so I mean people are complaining like ugly
- 2:36Speaker 1: and stopping these games are These are cold winner games.
- 2:39Speaker 1: I mean, people are gonna run it. People can't catch
- 2:41Speaker 1: the ball, their hands are frozen. I love it. I
- 2:43Speaker 1: love this time of your specially with its football weather.
- 2:45Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie to you, though I think I
- 2:47Speaker 1: mentioned this last week. It feels like this has been
- 2:51Speaker 1: an endless season. And I very specifically watched less football
- 3:00Speaker 1: from Thursday to Monday. Then I've watched and I don't
- 3:06Speaker 1: know how long. Honestly, that Thursday game feels like it
- 3:10Speaker 1: might as well have been between the was the Niners
- 3:12Speaker 1: and the Titans, might as well have been a year ago.
- 3:17Speaker 1: We love that the Titans in that one. We won
- 3:19Speaker 1: that game. Didn't watch a minute of it. On Saturday,
- 3:22Speaker 1: we didn't talk aggressively about the Packers and the Browns.
- 3:25Speaker 1: We did end up betting, which I forgot to put
- 3:28Speaker 1: in the Phase five in the Action Network gap. I
- 3:30Speaker 1: did put our other four games in there. We ended
- 3:34Speaker 1: up betting the Cardinals. I'm glad we didn't tell anyone
- 3:36Speaker 1: because they were lost. But I didn't watch either of
- 3:39Speaker 1: those games. And then Sunday, like I was in and out. Monday,
- 3:42Speaker 1: I didn't watch a single game. I didn't watch the
- 3:44Speaker 1: game Yeah, I feel like that was the least pro
- 3:47Speaker 1: thing Chad's ever said on my show. I'm like Chad,
- 3:50Speaker 1: I enjoyed the whole weekend, all the games. I love
- 3:53Speaker 1: this time of year. I get it the season is
- 3:55Speaker 1: long to non professionals, but the pros these are the
- 3:58Speaker 1: best days. I mean, other it. It wasn't for COVID,
- 4:01Speaker 1: these would be my biggest bets, most of my most
- 4:03Speaker 1: money put out of these kind of weeks. But we
- 4:05Speaker 1: talked about with COVID, it's just so much unknown. A
- 4:08Speaker 1: couple of our big bets hit last week. I know
- 4:10Speaker 1: you didn't love the Rams, but my Simon says, I
- 4:14Speaker 1: was all over the Rams and that was one of
- 4:16Speaker 1: those that nothing changed even with the minus through I
- 4:19Speaker 1: still took the number. Matthew Stafford, I think through three
- 4:21Speaker 1: interceptions we still covered just because Kirk Cousins that bad
- 4:25Speaker 1: in a big spot. So that was nice. Your scruture
- 4:28Speaker 1: let pick came through in the Chiefs, which was one
- 4:30Speaker 1: of my bigger bets too. Unfortunately, under we got backdoored
- 4:33Speaker 1: in the last two minutes. That was brutal. Yeah, the
- 4:37Speaker 1: Dolphins that that was one of my bigger bets of
- 4:40Speaker 1: the whole weekend was the Dolphins plus three plus three
- 4:43Speaker 1: and a half their money line and the under, and
- 4:46Speaker 1: I think the under mooved by seven points and the
- 4:49Speaker 1: side moved by seven points. So I looked at it
- 4:52Speaker 1: for a while. I was like, should I take the
- 4:53Speaker 1: other side and try to hit this middle? But luckily
- 4:57Speaker 1: I just didn't do it because my whole my whole
- 4:59Speaker 1: thinking was is this was already a scheduled boss for
- 5:02Speaker 1: the Saints. This was a trap game after such a
- 5:03Speaker 1: big win the previous week and the fact that this
- 5:07Speaker 1: quarterback has never taken an NFL snap before. He's either
- 5:11Speaker 1: gonna go two ways. Either he's gonna be incredible and
- 5:14Speaker 1: had the game of his life and then never play
- 5:15Speaker 1: another game in the NFL or using Nathan Peter minute,
- 5:18Speaker 1: which is what he did, which is he's a train wreck.
- 5:21Speaker 1: He's either getting sacked or throwing a pick. And people
- 5:23Speaker 1: complained about that game like that was like one of
- 5:25Speaker 1: the worst games of the year, not if you had
- 5:27Speaker 1: the Dolphins ticking an under bed. That was probably my
- 5:29Speaker 1: favorite games of the year. So it was an ugly weekend.
- 5:32Speaker 1: I told you when my biggest bets was the Bears
- 5:34Speaker 1: money line. They were down seven two minutes to go.
- 5:38Speaker 1: My man Nick Foles drove the field in the snow
- 5:40Speaker 1: and got the two point conversion for the our right win.
- 5:43Speaker 1: So that was nice I needed, though It's just because
- 5:45Speaker 1: I lost pretty big on the Cardinals, which I know
- 5:48Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell was just laughing at us. He he must
- 5:50Speaker 1: have just been thinking himself, these frauds, These frauds. I
- 5:53Speaker 1: tell them all the time to fake Cliff, and we
- 5:56Speaker 1: walked right into it. That Carolina bet. That that to
- 5:59Speaker 1: me is one of my worst. That's the entire year
- 6:01Speaker 1: Carolina is running. I don't know describe. It's like a
- 6:04Speaker 1: two Q QB system, but both the QB suck like
- 6:07Speaker 1: I feel like every time I checked that Panthers game,
- 6:09Speaker 1: it was three and completes in a row by Sam Donald.
- 6:11Speaker 1: Then they're bringing in Cam Newton to go three and
- 6:13Speaker 1: completes in a row, their head coaches saying jay Z
- 6:16Speaker 1: took seven years to become famous who knows what after
- 6:19Speaker 1: the game. So that was probably one of my probably
- 6:21Speaker 1: my third second biggest amount of money I bet last week.
- 6:25Speaker 1: It was Carolina and it felt it was like it
- 6:27Speaker 1: was dead within five minutes of that game starting. So
- 6:30Speaker 1: it was a good weekend, but it had a lot
- 6:31Speaker 1: of bad in until that was terrible. We ended up
- 6:34Speaker 1: going three and two on the week I mentioned the
- 6:36Speaker 1: Cardinals we lost that we lost the Panthers our final
- 6:40Speaker 1: five which other than the Cardinals, you can track reminder
- 6:43Speaker 1: in the Free Action Network app follow the phaves five
- 6:48Speaker 1: handles very easy to find. We like the Bills plus
- 6:53Speaker 1: two and a half at it and a pretty smart.
- 6:55Speaker 1: We like Kansas City minus seven and a half, and
- 6:58Speaker 1: we like Miami plus three. Again a lot of these lines.
- 7:02Speaker 1: I get a lot of feedback this weekend, like as
- 7:04Speaker 1: if people aren't listening, we will talk about the best
- 7:07Speaker 1: that we like today with the lines as they are
- 7:10Speaker 1: right now. We will talk about best that we like
- 7:12Speaker 1: on Thursday, with the lines as they are on Thursday
- 7:15Speaker 1: on Sunday. This is the way the contest we are
- 7:18Speaker 1: in works like they locked their lines on Tuesday or Wednesday,
- 7:21Speaker 1: but we don't have to make our decisions until Sunday.
- 7:24Speaker 1: So a lot of times we are making our our
- 7:26Speaker 1: decisions based on the closing line value. Miami was at
- 7:30Speaker 1: three and a half in the contest, closed to three
- 7:33Speaker 1: and a half as a favorite. Of course, we're gonna
- 7:35Speaker 1: take Miami like Kansas City was at seven and a
- 7:37Speaker 1: half in the contest and was closing a ten and
- 7:39Speaker 1: a half, so we liked Kansas City, like, that's just
- 7:42Speaker 1: gonna happen. You can't get mad at us because we're
- 7:44Speaker 1: playing the game that's presented to us and on the
- 7:47Speaker 1: deadline that's presented to us, and that we do a
- 7:50Speaker 1: literally a free podcast where Chad makes me give you
- 7:53Speaker 1: my best bets on a Tuesday. If I said I'm
- 7:57Speaker 1: betting Kansas City on a Tuesday, if I said I'm
- 8:00Speaker 1: betting the Rams as one of my favorite bets on
- 8:02Speaker 1: a Tuesday, we're betting, I might buy out, and it's
- 8:06Speaker 1: very rare. I do buy out. But if something crazy
- 8:08Speaker 1: happens where I'm betting big on Baltimore and then all
- 8:11Speaker 1: of a sudden the Ravens are down to their third
- 8:13Speaker 1: string or fourth string quarterback, yeah I'm gonna buy out
- 8:16Speaker 1: and probably change my position on Baltimore. This week, nothing
- 8:19Speaker 1: really changed. I mean, we were in on Miami. I
- 8:21Speaker 1: was still in on Miami. Unfortunately, we did our Thursday
- 8:24Speaker 1: show and then literally an hour after we posted our show,
- 8:26Speaker 1: the news broke that the quarterback was out. Nothing had
- 8:29Speaker 1: really changed that we'd still bet Miami and minus one.
- 8:31Speaker 1: So yeah, I get why people will complain about stuff.
- 8:34Speaker 1: But it's like, we literally do a free show where
- 8:36Speaker 1: I'm telling you on Tuesday, where I'm betting two free
- 8:39Speaker 1: shows a week. And by the way, also a reminder
- 8:43Speaker 1: we do, uh convince me? We had a lot of
- 8:45Speaker 1: questions about this. Another reminder convinced me is the show
- 8:48Speaker 1: that we do on Sunday mornings at Action Network h
- 8:51Speaker 1: Q eleven a m Eastern. It's also on Action Network's
- 8:55Speaker 1: YouTube page. Had a lot of viewers on YouTube this week.
- 8:58Speaker 1: I think it's because I remind people that's what I'm assuming.
- 9:01Speaker 1: It's not a podcast. It's a show you can watch
- 9:04Speaker 1: on Twitter at Action Network HQ. It's live stays up
- 9:07Speaker 1: through that the Sunday, or you can watch it on
- 9:10Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. That's when you get the most
- 9:12Speaker 1: up to date information because we're doing the show at
- 9:14Speaker 1: eleven am, and that's what we're talking about things as
- 9:16Speaker 1: they exist in the moment. All right, simon week this week, sixteen,
- 9:22Speaker 1: Week Week seventeen, No no more Thursday night football games.
- 9:28Speaker 1: I gotta watch amateur league college football. Well I don't
- 9:32Speaker 1: watch football anymore, so well, the rest of us that
- 9:36Speaker 1: have no lives still though. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are going
- 9:40Speaker 1: on the road after beating up the Panthers that we
- 9:42Speaker 1: thought it would be sort of a come down game
- 9:44Speaker 1: for the Box. They're now thirteen and a half point
- 9:47Speaker 1: favorites against the Jets. It's one of those spots where
- 9:50Speaker 1: already the bets are coming into the Box huge favorite
- 9:54Speaker 1: on the road. Getting that kind of percentage would normally
- 9:57Speaker 1: say you take the Jets. It's still do I hate it,
- 10:01Speaker 1: but we have to. Another thing I love about doing
- 10:03Speaker 1: the show with you Chat is seeing our fan base
- 10:05Speaker 1: learn and grow from different things and even little things
- 10:08Speaker 1: me and you might miss or you know, we weren't
- 10:11Speaker 1: on Houston because in our contest Houston was only plus
- 10:13Speaker 1: nine and a half, where the live line was up
- 10:15Speaker 1: to four team. Tons of messages about all these fans
- 10:19Speaker 1: of our show saying his Simon, all these little red
- 10:21Speaker 1: flags you mentioned are popping up with this Houston team.
- 10:24Speaker 1: All the money's coming in on the Chargers. They're on
- 10:26Speaker 1: the road. The line had moved up, now it's coming
- 10:28Speaker 1: back down. Should we take Houston? And I was like,
- 10:31Speaker 1: I'll take Houston, but I'm not taking their money line.
- 10:33Speaker 1: I was like, there's no way they're gonna win without Cooks.
- 10:36Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. Did not matter. Cooks was apparently irrelevant.
- 10:40Speaker 1: They have Rex Burke head who's gonna run for hundreds
- 10:42Speaker 1: of hundreds of yards and two touchdowns. So that was
- 10:44Speaker 1: a great read by our fans taking Houston's money line.
- 10:46Speaker 1: I think they got plus five hundred. Wish I had
- 10:48Speaker 1: done that. That was that was a great bet by
- 10:50Speaker 1: them for this matchup. Everything you just said's true. We
- 10:53Speaker 1: take the Jets here the Buccaneers, they're a great team.
- 10:57Speaker 1: We know Tom Brady dominates rookies. The Jets are coming
- 10:59Speaker 1: off the big win. Well, they're at home and we're
- 11:02Speaker 1: playing We're going to get to the Buccaneers team. That Again,
- 11:05Speaker 1: that game last week was more about Carolina. Carolina just
- 11:08Speaker 1: could not get anything going. I think they put up
- 11:10Speaker 1: what six points against this Buccaneers team that they've just
- 11:13Speaker 1: lost Shaq Barrett now that d line. So the injuries
- 11:17Speaker 1: keep mounting. I know Antonio Brown came back last week.
- 11:20Speaker 1: He looked great for that Buccaneers team. You really helped
- 11:22Speaker 1: care of that offense. But to me, at fifteen points whatever,
- 11:26Speaker 1: this might be thirteen and a half points. Whatever you
- 11:27Speaker 1: can get, you take the Jets here. It's like the
- 11:31Speaker 1: Chief two inflated of a line. So I don't know
- 11:33Speaker 1: if this will be one of our five, but I
- 11:36Speaker 1: bet this when I hit fourteen, I'm seeing it now
- 11:38Speaker 1: back down the thirteen and a half. It's some books,
- 11:39Speaker 1: but some books have it up to fifteen. So I
- 11:41Speaker 1: would chop around to this number. If you can get
- 11:43Speaker 1: above a fourteen, I would take this number ugly but right.
- 11:47Speaker 1: And I was wondering the same thing on Sunday, like,
- 11:49Speaker 1: I can't believe we didn't go bigger on the Texans
- 11:52Speaker 1: given all the signals that were sort of flintering up
- 11:54Speaker 1: in that direction. This next game is is one of
- 11:58Speaker 1: the most interesting games on the board. The Chiefs are
- 12:02Speaker 1: visiting the Bengals. Bengals off of this huge, huge win,
- 12:08Speaker 1: this statement game, Joe Burrow, fuck you that you're not
- 12:11Speaker 1: giving me the gold jacket. I'm gonna throw for five
- 12:15Speaker 1: five yards on you and the Chiefs, who, finally the
- 12:18Speaker 1: last couple of weeks have actually been covering relatively big
- 12:21Speaker 1: numbers and that was a smash spot. We love the Chiefs.
- 12:23Speaker 1: Last week against Steelers, the Chiefs are five point favorites
- 12:28Speaker 1: on the road. My first instinct here, you bet the
- 12:35Speaker 1: Bengals five and a half right now? But is that
- 12:38Speaker 1: a leftdown spot? Are the Chiefs in a better position,
- 12:40Speaker 1: are they getting healthier? Are they really the dominant team now? Tricky?
- 12:44Speaker 1: I don't want to am I am? I out thinking myself? Yeah,
- 12:47Speaker 1: so I'm right there with you. When I first saw
- 12:49Speaker 1: this at seven and a half last week, I was like, Wow,
- 12:52Speaker 1: that's a great number to take that Bengals team that
- 12:54Speaker 1: and to me, I forget a few better with us.
- 12:58Speaker 1: But the plus a thousand Bengals to win this division,
- 13:01Speaker 1: it's mine is two fifty now. So you're looking for
- 13:04Speaker 1: opportunities to hedge. You don't need to do it this week.
- 13:06Speaker 1: It seems like if it's gonna come down to the
- 13:09Speaker 1: Browns and the Bengals next week, So we'll deal with
- 13:11Speaker 1: that next week, hedging that out. But for this week
- 13:14Speaker 1: with the Bengals, I hate to do it, but I
- 13:16Speaker 1: gotta I gotta take I gotta take the Chiefs. When
- 13:20Speaker 1: I look at this matchup, I love what Joe is doing.
- 13:23Speaker 1: I love all the field, good story, everything about them
- 13:26Speaker 1: right now. But it's late December and he just beat
- 13:29Speaker 1: a backup quarterback on a banged up Ravens team. Now
- 13:33Speaker 1: he's gonna going against my Homes and this Chiefs team
- 13:35Speaker 1: that they've been here before. This is what we talked
- 13:38Speaker 1: about earlier in the year. We could all bash and
- 13:40Speaker 1: talk all the ship we want about the Chiefs. My
- 13:43Speaker 1: home has only ever lost a one quarterback in the
- 13:45Speaker 1: playoffs and that's Tom Brady. Okay, this this man, if
- 13:48Speaker 1: he gets to January, if he gets to February, I'm
- 13:51Speaker 1: always gonna back my Homes unless he's going against Tom Brady.
- 13:54Speaker 1: So looking at this matchup, this is a playoff football game.
- 13:57Speaker 1: This is literally for the number one seat for the
- 13:59Speaker 1: Chiefs team. Cannot see them let down here. You can
- 14:02Speaker 1: see a big letdown spot from this Bangals team where
- 14:04Speaker 1: they're looking ahead to next week. They know next week's
- 14:06Speaker 1: the game they need to win. Then that's the game
- 14:08Speaker 1: for the division. So I'm with you, first gliance. I'm like,
- 14:12Speaker 1: I like these points. I'm gonna take these points. But
- 14:14Speaker 1: the fact that Pros have already bet it down, they've
- 14:16Speaker 1: moved across the key number. As long as the stays
- 14:18Speaker 1: blows six, I'll be taking the Chiefs. Isn't it interesting? Though,
- 14:21Speaker 1: because everything about this from a precedent signals perspective says,
- 14:27Speaker 1: you take the bangalses. I mean, where's the money that
- 14:29Speaker 1: tickets coming in early right now? Because that's I forget
- 14:32Speaker 1: to mention this last show, this time of year. A
- 14:34Speaker 1: lot of this money bet right now is pro money. Okay,
- 14:36Speaker 1: the public they've spent their money on Christmas or they've
- 14:39Speaker 1: already lost all their money by now. So that's why
- 14:41Speaker 1: I like hearing from chat with the number is right
- 14:43Speaker 1: now at this time of year, because early money, early bets,
- 14:46Speaker 1: it's gonna be pro money. It's not gonna be the public.
- 14:49Speaker 1: Pro money right now is on the Bengals right because
- 14:51Speaker 1: again that was at seven a half, so that makes
- 14:53Speaker 1: sense they bet it down. But um, we'll see, maybe
- 14:55Speaker 1: we'll get a better number. I still like the Chiefs
- 14:57Speaker 1: below six, the Raiders on the road at the Colts
- 15:04Speaker 1: they are. I'm getting some weird numbers here. Just can't
- 15:08Speaker 1: be right. That's right. Carson Wentz just got put on
- 15:11Speaker 1: the COVID list. Uh like, my phone's blown up right
- 15:16Speaker 1: now because that happened literally five minutes before we came on.
- 15:19Speaker 1: Well fuck, I mean used to be able to get
- 15:21Speaker 1: the Raiders at a huge number and now it's completely down.
- 15:24Speaker 1: So I mean I got I got a little money
- 15:26Speaker 1: down on it, but all the books pretty much took
- 15:28Speaker 1: it off right before we came on. All right, Well,
- 15:30Speaker 1: if Carson Wentz is on the COVID list, then what
- 15:33Speaker 1: do we think of the Colts is a very short
- 15:35Speaker 1: home favorite against the Raiders, still smashing the Colts, Raiders
- 15:39Speaker 1: coming off a win. They're terrible against the run. The
- 15:42Speaker 1: Cult should have all their offensive linemen back off the
- 15:44Speaker 1: COVID list. Wait, wait, wait and see. We'll see where
- 15:47Speaker 1: this number ends up. Just because you just saw Carson
- 15:49Speaker 1: Wentz is out, they're gonna be starting a rookie quarterback.
- 15:52Speaker 1: Now the public is gonna come in and really head
- 15:54Speaker 1: you on this Raiders game. So you like the Raiders
- 15:56Speaker 1: and you hear this show, you can still get a five.
- 15:58Speaker 1: Maybe you take that, And if you like the Colts
- 16:01Speaker 1: like I do, I'll just wait. I think I'll get
- 16:03Speaker 1: down to three and I'll just take that number. It's
- 16:05Speaker 1: obviously not ideal this Colts team. For all the ship
- 16:08Speaker 1: we talked about Carson Wentz, I think he has twenty
- 16:10Speaker 1: four touchdowns the six interceptions he's been all right. He
- 16:14Speaker 1: has moments of brilliance and he has moments where he
- 16:16Speaker 1: does the dumbest shit ever. I don't know if I
- 16:19Speaker 1: can trust his rookie enough to make it one of
- 16:20Speaker 1: our five. But just looking at the matchup wise, everything
- 16:24Speaker 1: matches up really well for this Colts team. And we
- 16:26Speaker 1: also don't know if Winner's gonna back to this Colts defense,
- 16:28Speaker 1: which is a big deal too. So for me, there's
- 16:30Speaker 1: just too much unknown on Tuesday really give out either
- 16:33Speaker 1: side on this Colts number. Yeah, I agree. Also, Carson
- 16:36Speaker 1: with might only have six interceptions, but they seem to
- 16:39Speaker 1: come at the time where they might as well be
- 16:42Speaker 1: twenty four interceptions. Now, yes, he's had like ten drop picks.
- 16:46Speaker 1: He's been very lucky this year. But it's just funny
- 16:48Speaker 1: looking on paper, he's having statistically a good year. The
- 16:52Speaker 1: Eagles are visiting the Washington football team. The Eagles are
- 16:55Speaker 1: flying high. They're three and a half point favorite on
- 17:00Speaker 1: the road against a Washington football team who's play on
- 17:04Speaker 1: the field and morale on the sideline is starting to
- 17:07Speaker 1: reflect the dysfunction of the ownership, Like this team is
- 17:12Speaker 1: a train wreck. That game on Sunday night was terrible.
- 17:18Speaker 1: Another game I didn't watch then again over reaction. Yea,
- 17:24Speaker 1: let's go baby God in bed Washington football team Foxhole
- 17:29Speaker 1: where the fossil let's clide down into the foxhole. I
- 17:38Speaker 1: love it. I knew everyone's gonna hate this one. That's
- 17:40Speaker 1: why it's Immediately I saw this line, I was like, Okay,
- 17:42Speaker 1: this is probably about Foxhold. But because there might be
- 17:45Speaker 1: only four of us getting down to this foxhole and
- 17:47Speaker 1: fighting off the Germans here, it's a bad number for
- 17:49Speaker 1: a bad team. You're never gonna get the Eagles at
- 17:52Speaker 1: a higher point in the season. I mean, if you
- 17:55Speaker 1: hate this number, if you really do, just fade the
- 17:58Speaker 1: Eagles first half. They've been of the worst teams in
- 18:01Speaker 1: the first half this season. So this is the number.
- 18:04Speaker 1: I bet early. It moved against me and moved from
- 18:06Speaker 1: three and a half up to four. I bet it again.
- 18:08Speaker 1: I'll be all over Washington this week. It's just simply
- 18:11Speaker 1: a matchup and number based kind of thing where the
- 18:14Speaker 1: Eagles just had one of their biggest ones of the season.
- 18:16Speaker 1: Now they're going on the road to play a team
- 18:18Speaker 1: that just got blown out in a primetime game. We
- 18:21Speaker 1: love this number every time. The only reason I'm not
- 18:23Speaker 1: putting more money on. It's just because of COVID stuff,
- 18:25Speaker 1: but it feels like Washington football teams had every player
- 18:27Speaker 1: of their teams that COVID, so we should be good.
- 18:30Speaker 1: So I'm den it. I'm not gonna say there's a
- 18:32Speaker 1: hard percent chances to be one of our five. But
- 18:34Speaker 1: this is a game that it's probably my highest or
- 18:38Speaker 1: second highest PEC game right now this week. So I
- 18:42Speaker 1: really love this Washington spot wow that much. Yeah, it's
- 18:46Speaker 1: just a classic divisional game late in the year. People
- 18:50Speaker 1: are just out on this Washington team. They think they're
- 18:51Speaker 1: absolutely terrible. I mean, they just got what was the
- 18:54Speaker 1: fifty six points they gave up to this Couboys team,
- 18:57Speaker 1: So I get it. I get why they're so ain't on.
- 18:59Speaker 1: They don't want to bet this theme, but that's why
- 19:01Speaker 1: you have to bet it. If there are as bad
- 19:03Speaker 1: as people think they are. Wise in this number seven.
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- 21:40Speaker 1: West Virginia. Let's get back to the show. The Ramps
- 21:45Speaker 1: another team flying high on the road at the Ravens.
- 21:49Speaker 1: The Rams are three and a half point favorites. This
- 21:52Speaker 1: Ravens team is just impossible to handicap right now. You
- 21:56Speaker 1: never know who's gonna be playing. Yeah, what the hell
- 21:58Speaker 1: do we do with this number? What is this number?
- 22:00Speaker 1: Is Vegas giving us free money? I what the hell?
- 22:04Speaker 1: Why is this number three and a half? This is
- 22:06Speaker 1: the weirdest number of the week. The bookmakers know something
- 22:09Speaker 1: or they're all idiots. No clue. Either I take the
- 22:12Speaker 1: Ravens or I just stay away because this this line stinks.
- 22:15Speaker 1: Well right now, the it's a Pros Joe's game. Six
- 22:18Speaker 1: percent of the bets are on the Rams, of the
- 22:21Speaker 1: money on the Ravens. But to my point, who's playing
- 22:24Speaker 1: quarterback for the Ravens. It's it's gonna be Lamar. I mean,
- 22:28Speaker 1: the Pros must know something because this line stinks. I
- 22:31Speaker 1: mean to me, when I when I when I made
- 22:33Speaker 1: this number. If it's Lamar's backup, I made this seven
- 22:36Speaker 1: and a half, and with Lamar, I make them a
- 22:39Speaker 1: minus one favorite. The Ravens. That's how big of a
- 22:41Speaker 1: difference is between him and the third string quarterback. So
- 22:44Speaker 1: that's eight points of line movement. They just opened this
- 22:47Speaker 1: up right and then between they're just saying, you know what,
- 22:49Speaker 1: We'll let the professionals make a decision for us. Clearly
- 22:52Speaker 1: you just said the pros have made their decision. They're
- 22:54Speaker 1: coming in on the Ravens. So like I said, I'm
- 22:57Speaker 1: either gonna bet the Ravens or I'm not gonna bet
- 22:59Speaker 1: either set or bet not better side. So we'll see
- 23:01Speaker 1: if we have more Monday, more info on Thursday. But
- 23:04Speaker 1: you love matchup wise, you love everything this offense can
- 23:08Speaker 1: do with the Ravens against this defense that the Rams have.
- 23:11Speaker 1: The biggest scary part is they might have the worst
- 23:15Speaker 1: secondary and football right now. The Ravens with injuries, they
- 23:17Speaker 1: just they're down to fourth, fifth, six stringers starting right
- 23:21Speaker 1: now for them. So we we know that's where Stafford shines.
- 23:24Speaker 1: But again, Stafford on the road outdoors, I want to
- 23:30Speaker 1: take the Ravens so bad in this position. Again, he
- 23:33Speaker 1: threw three interceptions last week and they won by seven.
- 23:36Speaker 1: I just cannot see him getting away with that kind
- 23:37Speaker 1: of playing style against Lamar and this Ravens team at home.
- 23:41Speaker 1: This COVID is fucking everything up. I fucking hate it.
- 23:44Speaker 1: I can't wait until next year. I feel like by
- 23:47Speaker 1: next year we're gonna finally have a normal football season.
- 23:50Speaker 1: We'll see thinking thinking, I don't think normal is going
- 23:54Speaker 1: to be redefined? Is the thing you and your you liberals,
- 23:59Speaker 1: Jesus Christ. I hate that saying you gotta rethink normal.
- 24:03Speaker 1: Normal is never gonna be normal. Goddamn you. Well, it's
- 24:07Speaker 1: the fucking truth. I hate that saying so much though.
- 24:12Speaker 1: It is what it is, Hardy, what do you think
- 24:13Speaker 1: of that it is what it is? Well? I remember
- 24:16Speaker 1: talking to you in nineteen was it eighteen when the
- 24:20Speaker 1: Spanish flew it. You said, it's Simon, it's never gonna
- 24:22Speaker 1: be the same, Dad. It came back to normal, Okay,
- 24:25Speaker 1: so eventually we'll get there. Also, listen, it wasn't exactly
- 24:29Speaker 1: normal after the Spanish flu. A lot of stuff changed.
- 24:33Speaker 1: Couple of world wars. The Falcons are on the road
- 24:36Speaker 1: visiting the Buffalo Bills, the resurgent Bills, the dominant Bills,
- 24:41Speaker 1: the Bills who are on their way to clinching the
- 24:43Speaker 1: a f C East. When everyone thought the Patriots were
- 24:46Speaker 1: about to meet Tom Brady and the Super Bowl. Their
- 24:48Speaker 1: fourteen or a half point favorites. This number is too big.
- 24:52Speaker 1: I know. I hate it, Like I'm so glad you
- 24:54Speaker 1: said that, because I thought you're gonna be like, don't
- 24:56Speaker 1: make me fucking do it, but we have to do it.
- 24:59Speaker 1: We had to take Atlanta too many points. I made
- 25:02Speaker 1: this game twelve upt the fourteen and a half at
- 25:04Speaker 1: certain books four team. I believe the fan duel. I
- 25:07Speaker 1: don't know. I think maybe they're looking at they're saying
- 25:09Speaker 1: the matchups with Atlanta, they've just been blown out by
- 25:12Speaker 1: good teams. They beat up bad teams. That's fair. I mean,
- 25:15Speaker 1: teams are what they are. This is week's seventeen. Nothing's
- 25:18Speaker 1: really gonna change. Teams just simply are what they are.
- 25:20Speaker 1: So to me, I don't really get the line. That's
- 25:23Speaker 1: maybe what scared me off a little bit because it
- 25:26Speaker 1: was eight and a half. The Bills win that game
- 25:29Speaker 1: against the Patriots. Josh Allen looks great, and now it's
- 25:31Speaker 1: shot up six and a half points. Makes no sense,
- 25:34Speaker 1: doesn't really doesn't make sense. So that's I'm gonna get
- 25:37Speaker 1: talk to other professionals and see what they're saying about
- 25:39Speaker 1: this game, but I see no reason why you don't
- 25:42Speaker 1: take Atlanta. You take those free points they're giving. The
- 25:44Speaker 1: line just moved way too much. But we talked about
- 25:47Speaker 1: that Bills New England game. That felt like that was
- 25:49Speaker 1: a scheduled winning for that Bills team. We knew they
- 25:50Speaker 1: were the better team. We knew him Mac was gonna
- 25:52Speaker 1: eventually regress because he's a rookie, and that it's the
- 25:56Speaker 1: extended season not helping these rookie quarterbacks there. This is literally,
- 25:59Speaker 1: this is when they kind of fall apart. These defenses
- 26:01Speaker 1: have them figured out. So this Bill's team, they're legit.
- 26:04Speaker 1: Josh Town looks really good. He's playing the best he
- 26:06Speaker 1: has all year heading into the playoffs. But against a
- 26:10Speaker 1: veteran quarterback and Matt Matt Ryan and again Atlanta's offense
- 26:13Speaker 1: when they have the peace of mcquitel, Pattersons playing and
- 26:15Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts is there, they make plays. They keep these
- 26:18Speaker 1: games competitive. So I'll take that number, but I need
- 26:21Speaker 1: to talk to other pros before I really put a
- 26:23Speaker 1: lot of money on it. Well, it's interesting because in
- 26:24Speaker 1: the next game, the Jaguars are playing the Patriots. They
- 26:28Speaker 1: are anywhere from fourteen and a half to sixteen point
- 26:33Speaker 1: favorites the Patriots are also feels like way too big
- 26:38Speaker 1: of a number. Actually pet the Patriots right when this open. Yeah,
- 26:45Speaker 1: this is more a bet about Bill Bill Bill Belichick
- 26:48Speaker 1: first rookie quarterbacks, he just covers against them. I don't
- 26:51Speaker 1: even look at the number, honestly. As soon as I
- 26:53Speaker 1: see it's Bill versus rookie, I just bet it because
- 26:56Speaker 1: historically he does really well. I mean this year he
- 27:01Speaker 1: didn't cover against Houston, and I believe you covered twice
- 27:05Speaker 1: against the Jets with Zach Wilson and the other kid
- 27:07Speaker 1: that started for them. So I'm trying to think off
- 27:10Speaker 1: that I have these other rookies play this year, but
- 27:12Speaker 1: just historically, his defense, his scheme, it's the best. It's
- 27:15Speaker 1: just so good that these he just throws things. These
- 27:18Speaker 1: rookies haven't seen the fact that we have all this
- 27:20Speaker 1: tape at this point in the season. On Trevor Lawrence,
- 27:23Speaker 1: I know it's scaring you off. It's a huge number,
- 27:25Speaker 1: and like the prom me wants to tell you a
- 27:26Speaker 1: ticular side, but I take big spreads. It's like with
- 27:29Speaker 1: the Chiefs last week. I was telling people take them
- 27:31Speaker 1: in my stand a half if there's a opportunity there,
- 27:33Speaker 1: and I think this number is still a little short,
- 27:35Speaker 1: I'll take that number. So to me, as long as
- 27:37Speaker 1: this number stays on our seventeen seventeen a half, I'm
- 27:41Speaker 1: gonna take this Patriots team that's disgusting it is. I know,
- 27:45Speaker 1: I know you're right it so we won't make it
- 27:47Speaker 1: one of my five, but I will be on the Patriots.
- 27:49Speaker 1: This week, you mentioned the Bears. They are hosting the Giants.
- 27:52Speaker 1: The Giants are six and a half point dogs. This
- 27:56Speaker 1: is a very weird game because the Bears are terrible
- 28:01Speaker 1: and I'm hoping that Justin Fields is on the shelf
- 28:03Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. The Giants are terrible.
- 28:08Speaker 1: Mike Glennon doesn't really look like he belongs in the NFL. Uh,
- 28:11Speaker 1: He's at the other end of his career. That Drew
- 28:13Speaker 1: lock is like. Neither of them looked like they should
- 28:15Speaker 1: be NFL quarterbacks. And six and a half feels like
- 28:20Speaker 1: a lot of points to be an underdog against the
- 28:24Speaker 1: Bears team that just isn't very good. I would agree
- 28:27Speaker 1: with you in the sense that the Bears are I
- 28:31Speaker 1: would have to look my pirrat and chief I believe
- 28:33Speaker 1: I had them at number twenty eight or twenty seven,
- 28:35Speaker 1: that they're one of my worst rated teams. The worst
- 28:38Speaker 1: are the Giants. They are my lowest rated team right
- 28:41Speaker 1: now in football, and it's simply because of the quarterback position.
- 28:44Speaker 1: So I talked to a couple of professionals. They've come
- 28:46Speaker 1: in on the Giants. They've bet this number. I think
- 28:48Speaker 1: it wasn't seven. They've better down to six, six and
- 28:51Speaker 1: a half a certain books. I will be on the
- 28:53Speaker 1: other way. I love the Bears. I'm especially happy if
- 28:55Speaker 1: this is Nick Foles. This is why I fucking hate
- 28:58Speaker 1: Naggie and I can't wait from Aggie before hired. How
- 29:01Speaker 1: can he look his owner in the face and say
- 29:03Speaker 1: I started Any Dalton over Nick Foles all season and
- 29:06Speaker 1: those games like in what world is any dull In?
- 29:09Speaker 1: A better example or mentor for Justin Fields and Nick
- 29:12Speaker 1: Foles would be Andy Dalton plays that game against the Seahawks.
- 29:15Speaker 1: There's zero chance he drives a field the end of
- 29:17Speaker 1: the game and scores that touchdown. I mean, he just
- 29:19Speaker 1: the man isn't a winner. He like he is not
- 29:21Speaker 1: a winner. Nick Foles has proven time and time again
- 29:24Speaker 1: he's a winner and clutch moments the whole playoff run.
- 29:27Speaker 1: He's just a big time quarterback. So I like the
- 29:30Speaker 1: Bears momentum, them coming home. I like everything about this.
- 29:33Speaker 1: So the pros will be on the Giants. I'm gonna
- 29:35Speaker 1: be on the chalk at home with the Bears as
- 29:37Speaker 1: long as it's Nick Foles and not any Dalton. You
- 29:39Speaker 1: sleep on your team too much, man, Your your guys
- 29:41Speaker 1: defense is good? Was it? There's a ro quand about
- 29:44Speaker 1: the break the sacks record? Did he break the Bears sax?
- 29:47Speaker 1: Robert Quinn crazy like that? So I see the team
- 29:51Speaker 1: playing for someone like him, and I see the team
- 29:53Speaker 1: playing for a guy like Nick Foles, who he still
- 29:55Speaker 1: believes he's a starter. That's why that game was so
- 29:57Speaker 1: big for him last week. It was a kind of
- 29:58Speaker 1: a proven game for Nick, showing these other teams he
- 30:01Speaker 1: still has. So to me, the Giants have quit on
- 30:04Speaker 1: their head coach, They've quit in their g M. I
- 30:06Speaker 1: see embarrassing. That's resilient. They don't care about Matt nag
- 30:09Speaker 1: I think they're playing for the guys inside that locker room.
- 30:11Speaker 1: So I like these two teams go in different directions
- 30:14Speaker 1: right now. I like the arrow going up for the
- 30:15Speaker 1: Bears and I like fading this Giants team. I faded
- 30:17Speaker 1: them last week. Yeah, that first half sucked. I was like,
- 30:21Speaker 1: why how did I take the Eagles minus ten when
- 30:23Speaker 1: it was three three? But then Jake from started throwing
- 30:26Speaker 1: the ball, and then again they don't have a quarterback.
- 30:29Speaker 1: The Giants literally do not have a quarterback. So to me,
- 30:32Speaker 1: as long as it stays under seven, I'll take this number.
- 30:35Speaker 1: You're convincing me. I like that. At the press conference
- 30:38Speaker 1: this week, Matt Magie was asked if he thought he'd
- 30:40Speaker 1: be coaching the last two games, and he was basically,
- 30:42Speaker 1: I guess so if he if they don't start interviewing
- 30:45Speaker 1: coaches though next week, if I was embarrassing, I would
- 30:48Speaker 1: ride like I would literally, We'll see what these fans
- 30:51Speaker 1: do it the game. They should do some type of
- 30:53Speaker 1: protest against this front office because Naggy cannot keep this job.
- 30:57Speaker 1: This this man, it cannot keep this job. He is
- 31:00Speaker 1: an awful, awful coach. So we'll see. I feel bad
- 31:03Speaker 1: for Bears fans. That typical They're gonna win these meaningless
- 31:06Speaker 1: games the end of the year, but he just feels
- 31:09Speaker 1: like scheduled wins like that Seahawks game. We talked about that.
- 31:12Speaker 1: Just feel like it was way too many points for
- 31:14Speaker 1: two shitty teams. I think that's why the pros are
- 31:16Speaker 1: coming on the Giants, because it feels like too many
- 31:18Speaker 1: points for two shitty teams. But I think this change
- 31:20Speaker 1: of the Q position is what's gonna be a difference here.
- 31:23Speaker 1: I think that Nick Fole is just going to carry
- 31:25Speaker 1: this Bearers team to a victory at the end of
- 31:26Speaker 1: the year. Dolphins visiting the Titans, talk about a team
- 31:31Speaker 1: that is ready to roll. Dolphin's very short road hundred
- 31:35Speaker 1: dogs against the Tennessee Titans too. Didn't look great last
- 31:39Speaker 1: night from what I heard. But this is a this
- 31:42Speaker 1: is a tough one. What is a lay up? Lay up?
- 31:47Speaker 1: Lay up easy easy bet lock people one of our
- 31:49Speaker 1: five Tennessee don't care the number. I would take this
- 31:52Speaker 1: up to six. So yeah, love the matchup, I love
- 31:57Speaker 1: the I love the Dolphins story. It's incredible. I think
- 31:59Speaker 1: Stucky tweeted about a hundred times about the Dolphins are frauds,
- 32:02Speaker 1: they haven't played anyone. That's not totally true. They beat
- 32:05Speaker 1: Lamar at home on a Thursday night, which started this
- 32:07Speaker 1: whole kind of run. If you remember, we're probably one
- 32:10Speaker 1: of like three people that bet Miami against Lamar in
- 32:13Speaker 1: that game. So if if if I'm flipping on the Dolphins,
- 32:16Speaker 1: that should be assigned to people that this is when
- 32:18Speaker 1: you get off that Dolphins train. That was my favorite
- 32:20Speaker 1: bet last week. That was a scheduled loss for that
- 32:22Speaker 1: Sames team coming off that big win. Same thing here.
- 32:26Speaker 1: Dolphins are match up prone against very physical, dominating teams.
- 32:32Speaker 1: They get beat and they haven't had to play in
- 32:34Speaker 1: one of those teams and a lot what is it
- 32:35Speaker 1: seven weeks, eight weeks, they haven't really had to play
- 32:38Speaker 1: a good quarterback and a physical team. That's what we
- 32:41Speaker 1: have here. It's the perfect mix of a Tennessee team
- 32:44Speaker 1: that's toughest ship. They got the big bodies, they have,
- 32:47Speaker 1: the quarterback, they had, the wide receivers. Love love this
- 32:50Speaker 1: matchup for Tennessee. So to me, I I love the books.
- 32:55Speaker 1: The books. They just set these traps and immediately I
- 32:57Speaker 1: can see them. This is gonna be one more square
- 33:00Speaker 1: bets of the week. The publics that come in all
- 33:02Speaker 1: over the Dolphins as a dog getting that plus number.
- 33:05Speaker 1: Whatever it ends up with Tennessee, I'll be on. It's
- 33:08Speaker 1: already a massive pros. Joe's Game of the bets are
- 33:11Speaker 1: on Miami, of the money is on Tennessee and pros
- 33:15Speaker 1: of the same number as I do. They're looking at
- 33:16Speaker 1: this on paper. It's such a big discrepancy up front
- 33:21Speaker 1: between these old lines and d lines with this Tennessee team,
- 33:23Speaker 1: So it's it's a nice matchup for Tennessee. It's just
- 33:27Speaker 1: a really really bad one from Miami. This like again,
- 33:30Speaker 1: they have a tough, tough end of the year here.
- 33:32Speaker 1: They played them and was their game next? You got
- 33:34Speaker 1: have to look it up and it might be um
- 33:36Speaker 1: Is in New England. It's it's something where the end
- 33:38Speaker 1: of the year just two guns to playoff teams. It
- 33:41Speaker 1: sucks because Miami is such a feel good story. They
- 33:43Speaker 1: started one and seven, they won seven straight. That's a
- 33:46Speaker 1: great story. But I think it ends here. That might
- 33:48Speaker 1: have been my confusion at the beginning. The Texans visiting
- 33:52Speaker 1: the Niners. Texans are twelve and a half point underdogs.
- 33:56Speaker 1: Another early candidate for a pro Joe with a lot
- 33:59Speaker 1: of bets me in and the Texans's a lot of
- 34:01Speaker 1: money coming in on the Niners as huge, huge favorites.
- 34:06Speaker 1: It's the Niners at home, right, Yeah. I almost always
- 34:10Speaker 1: fade the Niners at home in this position. But this
- 34:13Speaker 1: is just I can't do with Houston after that game
- 34:16Speaker 1: last week, that was the perfect game for them. Every
- 34:20Speaker 1: every time they had handed off, They're making these big breaks,
- 34:22Speaker 1: these big runs. Davis Mills had zero pressure on them
- 34:25Speaker 1: because Boso was out of that game with COVID. They
- 34:27Speaker 1: just there's just two very different teams. We see the Chargers,
- 34:31Speaker 1: they they had a bunch of key guys out. The
- 34:33Speaker 1: four Niners don't have that issue. The only pauses it's
- 34:35Speaker 1: might It's gonna be Trey Lance. So I don't know
- 34:38Speaker 1: what to do with this one. I'm all in on
- 34:40Speaker 1: tray Lands. I love Trey Lance. His tape was unbelievable
- 34:43Speaker 1: in college. I love to pick by Shanahan, him and
- 34:45Speaker 1: his scheme. Again. It was two months straight everyone tell
- 34:48Speaker 1: me Mac Jones was going to the Niners, and I
- 34:50Speaker 1: kept saying, I don't believe it. I just can't see
- 34:51Speaker 1: what this offense we're gonna see in this game. While
- 34:54Speaker 1: I believe that, I just see this is the perfect
- 34:56Speaker 1: thing where Kyle Shanahan turned r G three into the
- 34:59Speaker 1: rookie of the year, almost an MVP can at his
- 35:01Speaker 1: rookie year. I could see the same things with Trey Lance.
- 35:04Speaker 1: Trey Lances all the same exact tools as already three did,
- 35:07Speaker 1: but he's smarter. He can read defenses. So it's a
- 35:10Speaker 1: big game. I want to tell people, you just take
- 35:13Speaker 1: the points here with Houston because I like dating a
- 35:15Speaker 1: rookie quarterback and it's like, you know, what, is this
- 35:17Speaker 1: the second start this season. I don't know what to
- 35:20Speaker 1: do with this one. The number feels good to me.
- 35:22Speaker 1: I made this number thirteen when they told me it's
- 35:24Speaker 1: Tray Lance. I bumped it down to eleven. So thankfully
- 35:27Speaker 1: that the value right now is on Houston. But I
- 35:30Speaker 1: don't really know what to do with it because I
- 35:31Speaker 1: don't really know how to read Tray Lance. I just
- 35:32Speaker 1: haven't seen him play enough. We're gonna wait, that's what
- 35:35Speaker 1: we're gonna do. We're not gonna We're probably not gonna
- 35:37Speaker 1: do anything. It's definitely not going to be in our
- 35:39Speaker 1: top five. We got a lot of their candidates for
- 35:41Speaker 1: the top five, so we're not like hurting right now.
- 35:44Speaker 1: It seems like there are a couple of games that
- 35:46Speaker 1: we freaking love, so we haven't we haven't done this.
- 35:49Speaker 1: Simon says yet. Yeah, I got there's two cannons for
- 35:53Speaker 1: Simon says, you're gonna love them both. So they're coming up,
- 35:56Speaker 1: all right, The Broncos against the Chargers in Los Angeles.
- 36:00Speaker 1: The Chargers so inconsistent justin Herbert, Oh goodness, oh goodness, yikee.
- 36:07Speaker 1: There are five point favorites against the Broncos. I assume
- 36:12Speaker 1: we've got Teddy Bridwater back this week. I haven't seen reports,
- 36:16Speaker 1: but if we do, it's hard not to take the
- 36:18Speaker 1: Broncos here. I'm starting to trust Vic Fangio as a
- 36:21Speaker 1: coach more than Brandon Staley. I'm right there with We
- 36:24Speaker 1: will keep it moving because we spend much time on
- 36:26Speaker 1: the other games. But if Teddy is in, people meet
- 36:29Speaker 1: me and Chad Teddy. Teddy's are underdog on the road.
- 36:31Speaker 1: We take Teddy. So the other thing we could say
- 36:35Speaker 1: is the Chargers have one of the worst run defensive
- 36:37Speaker 1: I've ever seen in football, and every week they've gotten
- 36:40Speaker 1: worse somehow, Like again Houston Rex Burkehead ran for one
- 36:44Speaker 1: fifty on them last week. You're going against the Denver
- 36:46Speaker 1: team that's a two headed monster and Melvin Gordon and
- 36:48Speaker 1: Javatte Williams. So I hate this matchup for the Chargers. Well,
- 36:52Speaker 1: we'll be on the Broncos, but we need to know, Teddy,
- 36:54Speaker 1: I can't bet any more money outlocked Panthers. These Panthers
- 37:00Speaker 1: touchdown underdogs on the road at New Orleans. Do we
- 37:03Speaker 1: even know who's playing quarterback for New Orleans yet? No?
- 37:06Speaker 1: Apparently the pros don't care. I talked to a couple
- 37:08Speaker 1: of big time pros. They've bet heavily on the Saints.
- 37:11Speaker 1: They're pretty much saying, we think there's two teams that
- 37:15Speaker 1: have fully quit on this season. One of the Giants,
- 37:18Speaker 1: who is the Panthers, And I should have listened to
- 37:21Speaker 1: him last week. I faded the Giants last week, but
- 37:23Speaker 1: I was like, now, I think this team is gonna
- 37:25Speaker 1: play for camp. I thought they would really show up
- 37:27Speaker 1: last week. They've quit that that team has simply quit.
- 37:31Speaker 1: So I'm interested with the public will even do with
- 37:33Speaker 1: this line later in the week. But the fact that
- 37:35Speaker 1: I heared other professionals they've come and they've bet the Saints.
- 37:38Speaker 1: I think it's up to seven. Ale, Like you said,
- 37:41Speaker 1: I guess I tell people about the Saints, but this
- 37:43Speaker 1: will be one of my last back games. I just
- 37:45Speaker 1: really don't have a feel for it right now. Next game.
- 37:48Speaker 1: I know we're going a little bit faster than usual,
- 37:50Speaker 1: but there's a massive number of games and want to
- 37:53Speaker 1: make sure we we get to all of them in
- 37:55Speaker 1: a timely matter. Cardinals road Dogs, A fading Cardinals team
- 38:01Speaker 1: really disappointed us on Saturday night five and a half
- 38:03Speaker 1: point Dogs against the Cowboys. I do think there's a
- 38:08Speaker 1: little bit. There's probably about two points of value here
- 38:11Speaker 1: on the Cardinals. This game should probably be three and
- 38:13Speaker 1: a half or three, and I would be right there.
- 38:15Speaker 1: If I'm not, I'm not. I'm not doing it everything
- 38:18Speaker 1: you just said. True. Cardinals are on the right side. Dallas,
- 38:21Speaker 1: I think they're probably one of the more overrated teams
- 38:24Speaker 1: right now. They're twelve and three against the spread. They're
- 38:27Speaker 1: they're obviously due for regression. I'll tell you right now,
- 38:29Speaker 1: and next year this is gonna be one of my
- 38:30Speaker 1: bigger fades all season. I'll just always fade Dallas because
- 38:34Speaker 1: all their lines next year are gonna be over inflated
- 38:36Speaker 1: just because of what they've done this year. I mean,
- 38:38Speaker 1: two of the biggest public teams and all football are
- 38:42Speaker 1: the Cowboys in Green Bay. I think they're one and
- 38:44Speaker 1: two against the spread, So that's that's pretty crazy. Those
- 38:47Speaker 1: two teams are always getting bet up. The Lion value
- 38:51Speaker 1: has not mattered even if you're if you've been being
- 38:53Speaker 1: against him, you've been a loser this year. So I
- 38:55Speaker 1: don't know what to do with this one, Like I
- 38:57Speaker 1: want to so bad against the Cowboys, but this could
- 39:00Speaker 1: be a sharp trap because this line doesn't make sense.
- 39:02Speaker 1: When I made this line, I made it seven. The
- 39:05Speaker 1: Cowboys are healthy on offense, they have all their weapons
- 39:07Speaker 1: right now. We see they're all clicking. We we have
- 39:10Speaker 1: seen it with this Arizona team. They just have not
- 39:12Speaker 1: looked right. Hopkins went down. Now, they don't have a
- 39:15Speaker 1: weapon on third down. That's a key thing. They didn't
- 39:17Speaker 1: have Connor last week. That obviously was a big deal.
- 39:20Speaker 1: They couldn't have those big runs. They faltered allot on
- 39:23Speaker 1: the red zone. Connor is very important to them. The
- 39:25Speaker 1: biggest one is J. J. Watt. If you look at
- 39:27Speaker 1: what they were against the run before J. J. Watt,
- 39:30Speaker 1: who was playing d tackle for them, got hurt, It's
- 39:32Speaker 1: like night and day. There were seven and oh he's
- 39:35Speaker 1: gone down. We've seen what they've become. On defense, they
- 39:37Speaker 1: could be run on. That's the Cowboys identity. They want
- 39:40Speaker 1: to run it with Zeke. They want to run with Pollard.
- 39:42Speaker 1: So yeah, the proman wants to be like what Chad
- 39:45Speaker 1: just said, there's you're getting two three points of value
- 39:47Speaker 1: just because of what happened last week and what this team,
- 39:50Speaker 1: the Cowboys have done this year to the books. They've
- 39:52Speaker 1: destroyed the books. The public keeps winning on. So I'll wait.
- 39:55Speaker 1: I hope this number kids getting betting on. Maybe if
- 39:57Speaker 1: they hit seven, that's when I see the value coming
- 39:59Speaker 1: on the Cardinals. I'll make that bet. But it's stays
- 40:02Speaker 1: under six, six and a half. I just can't beat
- 40:04Speaker 1: the Cardinals at that number, all right, So we're gonna
- 40:06Speaker 1: wait on that one. Yeah, all right. Next up, let's
- 40:10Speaker 1: talk about the Detroit Lions visiting the Seattle Seahawks. They
- 40:14Speaker 1: are basically a touchdown underdog on the road. Gross, we'll
- 40:19Speaker 1: just I mean, we'll just keep betting the Lions. I
- 40:21Speaker 1: guess I have no idea what to read on this game.
- 40:23Speaker 1: You like the value? What's your number? I think it's
- 40:26Speaker 1: good at what it is. I mean, it's seven. The
- 40:27Speaker 1: pros came in heavy when it was nine and a half,
- 40:29Speaker 1: eight and a half. They've bet it down some books
- 40:32Speaker 1: down to six and a half. I'd still take the
- 40:34Speaker 1: lines there at that number. I think that's a fair
- 40:36Speaker 1: price for the Seahawks team. I just cannot stop the run.
- 40:39Speaker 1: But we know the Linon's identity. Lioness want to run
- 40:41Speaker 1: it down your throat and they have quick passes and
- 40:42Speaker 1: that's what's worked for him. So man, I hate to
- 40:45Speaker 1: do it. I can't believe I'm doing it. But I'll
- 40:48Speaker 1: take the lions and I'll take the points. But man,
- 40:50Speaker 1: this is a gross one. This probably won't be one
- 40:52Speaker 1: of our five. No. I mean, you're not getting the
- 40:54Speaker 1: best that number anymore. I think if I had seen
- 40:56Speaker 1: this at nine. You know, we do this podcast that
- 40:58Speaker 1: comes out on Mondays with Raheem Palmer and Brandon Anderson
- 41:01Speaker 1: which they will take a look at the sort of
- 41:03Speaker 1: hot reads of the early lines, and this at nine,
- 41:07Speaker 1: this was they were all over this one. Actually, net
- 41:09Speaker 1: we're a podcast, check it out. They were all over
- 41:11Speaker 1: this one early. That makes me anxious about getting it
- 41:14Speaker 1: at seven. Although, to be honest, like I just know
- 41:17Speaker 1: the Seahawks, They're they're not dis similar to me from
- 41:20Speaker 1: the Giants and the Panthers. Like there's a lot of
- 41:22Speaker 1: chaos there. There's questions about the future of the organization.
- 41:26Speaker 1: Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson. Their defense is horrible, and the
- 41:32Speaker 1: Lions like they don't seem to know how bad they are,
- 41:36Speaker 1: do you know what I mean? The craziest part is,
- 41:38Speaker 1: like one of my favorite best is betting there under
- 41:40Speaker 1: and Houston's under, and now I'm sweating those. It's it's
- 41:43Speaker 1: scary time, especially how much money I have on in Houston. Houston.
- 41:46Speaker 1: Luckily it's five and the lines were five and a half.
- 41:49Speaker 1: I know they were bent down. I think four and
- 41:51Speaker 1: a half and five I thought lines were. And you're
- 41:53Speaker 1: talking about season win totals. By the way, Sorry, it's interesting.
- 41:58Speaker 1: I'll give I'll give Camba all the in the world.
- 42:00Speaker 1: It is pretty amazing what they've done. When you look
- 42:03Speaker 1: on paper, they're they're not as terrible as you think
- 42:05Speaker 1: they are. They're actually great out as one of the
- 42:06Speaker 1: top five offensive lines and all football this year, so
- 42:10Speaker 1: they have stuff to build on their the lines. But
- 42:11Speaker 1: just for this game, I think Chad Snail on the head.
- 42:13Speaker 1: The defense up Seattle is so bad. It was the
- 42:16Speaker 1: same reason I want to take the barrious plus seven.
- 42:18Speaker 1: Who who the hell are they to be favored by
- 42:20Speaker 1: that many points. This feels like it's a respect to
- 42:23Speaker 1: Russell Wilson of the old given them that many points
- 42:27Speaker 1: at home, I'm not buying it. So yeah, I'll take lines.
- 42:30Speaker 1: I just don't know if I'll be one of our five.
- 42:32Speaker 1: Credit to Dan Campbell. Also credit to Dave Culley of
- 42:35Speaker 1: the Texas, because there's no one who was thinking they
- 42:39Speaker 1: would get even close to their season win total and
- 42:41Speaker 1: they're making you sweat not at all. I mean a
- 42:45Speaker 1: few franchises have drafted worse and done worse in free
- 42:48Speaker 1: agency then Houston. I look at them. It's incredible. Davids Mills.
- 42:53Speaker 1: Someone was saying, why isn't he up for Rookie the Year?
- 42:55Speaker 1: That's a fair Honestly, that's a fair argument. You look
- 42:58Speaker 1: on what Mac Jones is around him in New England
- 43:01Speaker 1: compared to what this kid has been dealing with in Houston.
- 43:04Speaker 1: That's a fair argument. It's just if Mac gets the playoffs,
- 43:08Speaker 1: you have to give it to him. He's a quarterback.
- 43:10Speaker 1: He's a rookie quarterback that played all all season, the
- 43:12Speaker 1: teams in the playoffs, So that get better year for
- 43:15Speaker 1: Davis Mills than Trevor Lawrence easily no, he's honestly, in
- 43:20Speaker 1: my opinion, he's number two quarterbacks this year. It's it's
- 43:22Speaker 1: Mac one than him. So it's not amazing interesting, it's
- 43:24Speaker 1: totally amazing. The Vikings totally disappointed us. Speaking of what's up,
- 43:32Speaker 1: you speak for yourself. I was on the disappointed us
- 43:34Speaker 1: in the fact that the right number on that it
- 43:37Speaker 1: should have been a touchdown a field goal game, and
- 43:40Speaker 1: everyone should have won their bests. They should have everyone
- 43:42Speaker 1: on on the Vikings at three and a half in
- 43:44Speaker 1: the Rams and two and a half they should have
- 43:46Speaker 1: everyone should have won. The Vikings sucked it up. Six
- 43:49Speaker 1: and a half point dogs against the Packers feels like
- 43:51Speaker 1: a good number, though, Like I look at that, and
- 43:53Speaker 1: I'm not going to be overreactive to the Vikings at
- 43:55Speaker 1: the end of the year. You mentioned the Packers and
- 43:59Speaker 1: they're against the spread number this year, they are due
- 44:01Speaker 1: for aggression. Obviously, them and them and the Cowboys teams
- 44:05Speaker 1: generally will be or a little bit better or a
- 44:09Speaker 1: little bit worse against the spread. The Packers and Cowboys
- 44:12Speaker 1: like combined or I don't know, Like I think they've
- 44:16Speaker 1: lost six games total against the spread. So and the Packers,
- 44:20Speaker 1: you know this Browns game was one of them, but
- 44:22Speaker 1: it feels like this is another spot where it could
- 44:25Speaker 1: be a close game. The fact that we're the number
- 44:28Speaker 1: one biggest podcast sports gamling podcasts in the world. I
- 44:32Speaker 1: can't make this my assignment, says, because I want to
- 44:34Speaker 1: do with the Vikings. But it's Kirk in prime time.
- 44:37Speaker 1: We love this number. I mean, this is you bet
- 44:41Speaker 1: this every time divisional matchup this late in the season.
- 44:44Speaker 1: These teams aren't that different. I know the record you're
- 44:46Speaker 1: looking on paper, Go holy well, the Green Bay is
- 44:49Speaker 1: gonna be the number one seed in the NFC. Blakes
- 44:51Speaker 1: aren't gonna make the playoffs. The Vikings were fucked from
- 44:54Speaker 1: the get go. We talked all preseason. That was the
- 44:57Speaker 1: stinkiest win total all off season. There was just sitting
- 45:00Speaker 1: there at nine nine and a half. Some some books
- 45:03Speaker 1: moved back down to eight and a half. They're never
- 45:05Speaker 1: gonna hit that over Like it felt like the fix
- 45:07Speaker 1: was in coming into the year with this Vikings team.
- 45:09Speaker 1: So to me, this is the typical everyone's off the Vikings.
- 45:14Speaker 1: Everyone's gonna be in on Green Bay. This number should
- 45:16Speaker 1: be four three and a half. We're getting three points.
- 45:19Speaker 1: It could even go up to seven again, we'll get
- 45:21Speaker 1: back at seven. That's even better. We love the Vikings here.
- 45:23Speaker 1: It just sucks at the primetime game. This is one
- 45:25Speaker 1: o'clock in the afternoon in Green Bay. I'd be all in.
- 45:28Speaker 1: This would be probably my biggest bet of the week,
- 45:30Speaker 1: but because it's prime time, I gotta remember it's Kirk
- 45:33Speaker 1: Cousins in prime time and historically he always lost us down,
- 45:36Speaker 1: so I had to bet this number. But just the
- 45:39Speaker 1: fact that it's in a prime time I won't bet
- 45:40Speaker 1: as much. I know what you're gonna say. Next, the
- 45:43Speaker 1: Browns are visiting the Steelers. The Steelers are three and
- 45:46Speaker 1: a half point underdogs at home, coming off a dreadful
- 45:50Speaker 1: game in which it really doesn't look like they have
- 45:53Speaker 1: a play other than Ben Roethlisberger throw it up and
- 45:55Speaker 1: help someone calls pass interference. But I gotta set says
- 46:00Speaker 1: this one. Dad knows me so well, and that's why
- 46:02Speaker 1: I love you said Pittsburgh in your head, just because
- 46:05Speaker 1: it's rare. I'll do back to back money nights is
- 46:06Speaker 1: my biggest bets of the week. The same reason we
- 46:09Speaker 1: took Miami last week at three and a half, the
- 46:11Speaker 1: same reason we'll take Pittsburgh here. Man, that game couldn't
- 46:14Speaker 1: have gone any better for us, that Chiefs game. Everything
- 46:16Speaker 1: we said about Pittsburgh came true. They just they never
- 46:19Speaker 1: had a chance. That offense was never gonna be able
- 46:20Speaker 1: to keep up with Kansas City offense. This is the
- 46:23Speaker 1: best Pittsburgh's defense at home late December after a blowout loss. God,
- 46:29Speaker 1: this is too easy, too easy. Take Pittsburgh take their
- 46:32Speaker 1: money line. I make this line minus one. You're getting
- 46:35Speaker 1: four and a half points, free points just because Roethlisberger
- 46:40Speaker 1: might have a dead arm. I love this one. That's
- 46:42Speaker 1: why I hate doing my Simon says on Monday night
- 46:44Speaker 1: because people up to wait all weekend. When it's like
- 46:46Speaker 1: the Dolphins game like that was last night. It's always
- 46:49Speaker 1: worth the weight. When you have a plus number against
- 46:51Speaker 1: an inferior team, it's the best feelings. So to me,
- 46:55Speaker 1: there's no doubt by the time this game kicks off,
- 46:56Speaker 1: it's gonna below through. The number will be below three,
- 46:59Speaker 1: and you'll be two and a half. Were at three.
- 47:01Speaker 1: Take that three and a half as long as you can.
- 47:03Speaker 1: I mean, here's the thing. We've now gone through the
- 47:06Speaker 1: entire slate. We love the Steelers, We love the Washington
- 47:10Speaker 1: football team. I'm not I'm not afraid of taking the Vikings.
- 47:15Speaker 1: We like the Chiefs, we could like the Lions like
- 47:19Speaker 1: we like every game. We have an opinion on every game,
- 47:21Speaker 1: almost every game. Yeah, I've got a lot of games
- 47:23Speaker 1: earlier this week. But again, I've been talking to a
- 47:25Speaker 1: lot of pros, and we feel like we're getting good
- 47:27Speaker 1: value that we can buy out of if COVID does happen.
- 47:30Speaker 1: So it honestly feels like a lot of these lines
- 47:31Speaker 1: are juice stuff at this time of year, just because,
- 47:34Speaker 1: like you said, these teams like Green Bay, like Dallas
- 47:37Speaker 1: have just been burning these sports books. So it feels
- 47:40Speaker 1: like we're getting to three points of value earlier in
- 47:41Speaker 1: this week right now, I mean this, this Pritsburgh Lands
- 47:44Speaker 1: ridiculous like that back in the day, you never see
- 47:47Speaker 1: this kind of line, such an overreaction. The books have
- 47:49Speaker 1: to do it. So many people are coming in so
- 47:51Speaker 1: heavy on Cleveland, they have to move that number to
- 47:53Speaker 1: what they did. All right, we got our son and
- 47:55Speaker 1: says it's the Steelers are foxholes. The Washington football team.
- 47:58Speaker 1: We've gone through the entire slate. We will do big
- 48:01Speaker 1: balls on Thursday. Convince me. Eleven a m. Sundays. Watch it.
- 48:05Speaker 1: It's not a podcast. You gotta watch it. Action Network HQ.
- 48:08Speaker 1: You can also get an Action Networks YouTube page. We'll
- 48:11Speaker 1: do our money line parlay on Thursday. Last week in
- 48:14Speaker 1: scoot Roulette, I had the Chiefs and you in Miami.
- 48:17Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
- 48:22Speaker 1: Let's play roulette. You get to go first again this week.
- 48:30Speaker 1: You already know I'm gonna keep it simple, stupid. I
- 48:31Speaker 1: just want to win. That's my whole goal here. I'll
- 48:34Speaker 1: just take the sharpest number every week, and I'll just
- 48:36Speaker 1: keep beating this ship out of Chad. Give me Pittsburgh
- 48:39Speaker 1: three and a half. Tricky, tricky I I'm gonna take
- 48:44Speaker 1: the Titans minus three and a half. That was my
- 48:47Speaker 1: other option was that's the that's the biggest one, stands out,
- 48:50Speaker 1: the biggest line. Discrupancy. Forgot about that one. Add that
- 48:53Speaker 1: to the list. Like, if we had to choose right now,
- 48:56Speaker 1: we could choose five now, Arthur mad I can think
- 48:58Speaker 1: of two favorites and three dollars us that are just
- 49:00Speaker 1: automatic places. If we had to choose right now, we
- 49:03Speaker 1: would choose Titans, Chiefs Dealers of Bikes, Washington football team, right,
- 49:08Speaker 1: those are the two favorites and three dogs. Are we
- 49:10Speaker 1: on the same page? Wow? Is that amazing? Only because
- 49:14Speaker 1: I know it's very very little I can do convinced
- 49:17Speaker 1: you take the bears, but we'll see you come to sung. Well,
- 49:19Speaker 1: here's the thing, Like people are complaining, Hey, why are
- 49:22Speaker 1: you putting the picks in the app? Follow the app
- 49:24Speaker 1: to phase five. On Sunday, we'll office stale lines. We're
- 49:28Speaker 1: giving away the games that we're talking about right now
- 49:30Speaker 1: with the numbers that they are. We like these games.
- 49:33Speaker 1: We will make the decision on Sunday based on a
- 49:35Speaker 1: variety of other factors, and usually we were worse on Sunday.
- 49:37Speaker 1: So I don't know what then these people are bitching about.
- 49:39Speaker 1: This is this is where we're giving good info Tuesday,
- 49:41Speaker 1: when our minds are clear connected to the emotions of
- 49:44Speaker 1: the day. We're here. We're like anybody else. Most we
- 49:48Speaker 1: make most of our bets Monday through Friday. Yeah, I don't.
- 49:52Speaker 1: I honestly might make one bet Sunday. All my bets
- 49:55Speaker 1: are done by Sunday, honestly, Like the only time I'll
- 49:57Speaker 1: bet Sunday mornings, I'm buying out a position. Huh am
- 50:02Speaker 1: I missing anything now, you nailed it. Thank you. Appreciate that,
- 50:06Speaker 1: Appreciate your support. This has been the favorites from the
- 50:10Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Nolman. He is Simon Hunter.
- 50:15Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify again. Remember you can now ripe
- 50:18Speaker 1: podcasts and Spotify give us a five star review. We
- 50:21Speaker 1: don't care if you rip us feedback as a gift,
- 50:24Speaker 1: it's gotta be five stars. Do the same thing on
- 50:26Speaker 1: Apple podcasts. We will be back on Thursday talking about
- 50:31Speaker 1: the game's narrowing things down, getting closer to Sunday. Until then,
- 50:35Speaker 1: I love you, Yeah,