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DOES This CONFIRM America will never Buy Bitcoin?! · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
Yo, Senator Lummus confirmed she is leaving in 2027.
0:05
That's right, she is not going to be running for re election,
0:09
which is leaving many people to wonder what does this mean for
0:13
the strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative?
0:16
Senator Lummis was one of the main advocates in the Senate
0:19
pushing for the United States to buy 1,000,000 Bitcoin.
0:24
But now that now we've got no senator Lummis no behinds and
0:29
still no Bitcoin buys. It's been nine months since
0:33
President Donald Trump signed the Bitcoin executive order.
0:37
So what is actually going to happen with the strategic
0:40
Bitcoin reserve in America of course we have a ton of source
0:44
material for you guys. We have the betting markets.
0:46
The betting markets aren't looking so optimistic about it
0:50
either. Guys, it's going to be an
0:51
incredible show. Stay tuned and let's jump
0:54
straight into the source material.
0:57
So what am I talking about today, ladies and gentlemen?
1:00
So let's start off with Bo Hines.
1:03
So you guys remember this a couple of weeks ago, no, a
1:07
couple months ago at this point, Bohenz, which was the biggest
1:12
Bitcoin advocate in my opinion, other than the AI Cryptozar
1:17
David Sachs in the White House. You saw him in every single
1:22
interview, every single interview.
1:24
He was advocating for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, how
1:27
it was going to happen, how it was an inevitability.
1:30
And then a couple months into his, you know, his, his stint at
1:36
the White House, he resigned. And then shortly after, you had
1:39
this like funky thing that was happening where Treasury
1:43
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett would go on legacy media and he
1:47
would say, you know, like we're really focusing on gold.
1:50
There was a lot of pushback from the community.
1:52
And then he kind of walked it back with the post.
1:54
Anyways, it was all very suspicious at that point when
1:57
that happened. Initially we told you guys on on
2:00
simply Bitcoin. We said this is probably not a
2:03
good thing for the strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative in
2:07
the United States. And I remember shortly after he
2:11
left the administration, he joined Tether, right, which
2:15
again, great, great Bitcoin company and spreading digital
2:18
assets all around the world. But anyhow, so this, this was
2:21
like the first alarm signal, the second alarm signal.
2:25
I have a soft spot for Senator Lemus.
2:27
Senator Lummus gave me my first interview with a, a United
2:31
States Senator. I had the honor and the pleasure
2:34
of being able to interview her interview her inauguration week
2:39
in Washington, DC, January of this year.
2:43
And I, I remember I was so hyped because she was talking about
2:46
the strategic Bitcoin reserve. She was talking about how she
2:50
was becoming part of the Senate Banking Committee, which is a
2:54
big deal from a policy perspective to have a bitcoiner
2:58
in the Senate Banking community. Remember, the other side, the
3:01
head of the Senate Banking Committee for the Democratic
3:04
Party is Elizabeth Warren, right?
3:06
So just to kind of give you an idea of how important that
3:09
committee, that committee is and Senator Lummis over the, I think
3:15
it was on Friday, actually, she announced that she is not going
3:18
to be running for re election. To clarify, she will be doing
3:22
everything in her power to continue to push on an advocate
3:27
for digital assets in the United States next year.
3:30
So she still has a whole year before her term expires, but
3:34
she's not going to be running for re election in 2027 moving
3:38
forward. There's no way to cut this.
3:41
There's no way to spin this. There's no way to make this
3:45
better. This is a big loss for the
3:47
Bitcoin community. She was the Bitcoin senator.
3:51
She was hardcore. She had principles.
3:54
I remember one of the the the last thing she said when she's
3:56
talking about the interview, she says like, listen, this the this
4:00
strategic Bitcoin reserve is one of the things that my generation
4:07
could do for your generation to right the wrongs of Fiat.
4:12
That was one of the most powerful things she said when we
4:14
when, when, when I got to interview her in DC and
4:18
unfortunately she's she's not going to be running for for for
4:23
re election. I do want to thank Senator
4:25
Lummus and her amazing team, got to speak with them last week for
4:31
everything that they've contributed to the, the Bitcoin
4:33
space, the Bitcoin movement. It's been fantastic.
4:37
It's been, it's, it's been incredible that we have an
4:39
advocate for Bitcoin on the upper House of the, you know,
4:44
of, of, of the US legislative body, right?
4:48
So I do want to, I do want to thank Senator Lummus for her
4:51
service, But this is a big hit. I'm not going to lie to you
4:54
guys. I'm not going to try to spin it.
4:55
So anyways, she says it's an incredible honor to represent
4:58
Wyoming in EU in the US Senate and throughout my time here,
5:02
Wyoming has been my one and only priority.
5:05
What a blessing to serve with Senators John A Bar so and Mike
5:09
Enzi when I was in the US House and with John and Representative
5:14
Harriet Hegman while I've been in the Senate.
5:17
We all put Wyoming first, which has cemented our cohesive
5:21
working relationship. Deciding not to run for re
5:24
election represent a change of heart for me, but in the
5:28
difficult, exhausting sessions weeks this fall, I've come to
5:32
accept that I do not have six more years in me.
5:36
I'm a devout legislator, but I feel like a sprinter in a
5:39
marathon. The energy required does doesn't
5:42
match up. I'm honored to have earned the
5:45
support of President Trump and to have the opportunity to work
5:48
side by side with him to fight for the people of Wyoming.
5:52
I look forward to continuing this partnership and throwing
5:55
all my energy into bringing important legislation to his
5:58
desk in 2026 and into retaining common sense Republican control
6:03
of the US Senate. Thank you, Wyoming.
6:05
So let's do a couple of things to breakdown what she just said
6:10
thing #1 the Senate. The Republicans will more than
6:13
likely keep the Senate next year.
6:16
More than likely they will lose the House next year as things
6:20
currently stand. That's thing number two thing #3
6:24
the Clarity Act has a high probability of passing in Q1 or
6:30
Q2 of 2026. The Clarity Act, more than the
6:34
Genius Act, is actually a bigger win for our industry in terms
6:39
of, again, it's in the name, regulatory clarity.
6:42
And of course, when you have regulatory clarity, you have a
6:45
lot of confidence from the big banks, from large institutional
6:48
players to invest in digital assets, to invest, invest in
6:52
Bitcoin without the, with, without fear of uncertainty,
6:55
without fear of, of an incoming administration coming in and
6:59
reversing all of the things the Trump administration did.
7:02
Remember, an executive order can be reversed by a future
7:05
president, a something that goes through legislation and gets
7:09
passed in Congress. It's much harder to, to, to
7:13
reverse. And as Senator Lummus has said
7:15
many, many times, they have done all of these things in a
7:19
bipartisan fashion. So it's not been all complete
7:23
support from the Democratic Party, but a lot of Democrats
7:27
supported the Genius Act and a lot of Democrats will support
7:30
the Clarity Act as well. So I do want to thank Senator
7:34
Senator Lummis for her service. But I'm not going to, you know,
7:37
put a cherry on top and say this is amazing news or this is
7:42
fantastic. Losing bohines and then losing
7:47
Senator Lummis is just it's a big loss for the Bitcoin Reserve
7:57
movement in the United States. You can cut that in two
8:01
different ways. You could say, Nico, that's a
8:03
good thing. We actually don't want more
8:05
nation states acquiring Bitcoin. Or you can look at it from a
8:09
more number go up perspective and say, listen, if there's not
8:14
going to be a strategic Bitcoin reserve, then you're not going
8:16
to see these wild price swings to the up to, you know, the
8:20
upwards direction. Because we were telling you guys
8:23
this throughout the year and there is a lot more certainty
8:27
earlier on this year that look, I said if the United States
8:32
announces A strategic Bitcoin reserve and they announced that
8:35
they bought like, you know, 500,000 Bitcoin or something
8:37
like that. I'll tell you guys like the
8:39
price of Bitcoin would probably go to half $1,000,000 within a
8:42
year, right? Because it would just create an
8:45
A Bitcoin arms race worldwide, right?
8:48
So anyhow, let's talk about this.
8:51
So the US Bitcoin reserve, the Poly market odds now have it at
8:58
less than 1%. And just to kind of give you
9:01
guys reference, right, And the beginning of the year in in
9:04
March of 2025, the betting markets had it at a 77%
9:12
probability that it was going to happen, right?
9:17
And then when Bo Hines resigned, right, which was in August,
9:21
right? You can see that it went from a
9:22
35% chance down to a 20% chance and now with the Senator Lummis
9:28
announcement, you know you have it at less than 1%.
9:33
Now, if you are taking more of a long term view of this, here is
9:40
the the betting, even though it doesn't have that much volume,
9:43
but still I love the betting markets gives gives it a more
9:48
the betting markets have been more accurate at predicting
9:51
elections, predicting results because again, people put money
9:55
on the line. It's not just a pollster.
9:57
A pollster can be compromised. They can be paid off.
10:01
You know, when people put their money where their mouth is, so
10:04
to speak, when they have something at stake, right?
10:07
It, it tends to, you know, create more accurate results.
10:10
Now here are the odds currently as they stand for AUS National
10:16
Bitcoin Reserve before 2027. It's currently at 27%, so check
10:22
this out. We went from 77% on March of
10:26
2025 to 2027, right? So 2026, it's all the way down
10:33
to 27% and we lost our two biggest advocates for a
10:40
strategic Bitcoin reserve in the same calendar year, Bo Hines,
10:46
who again is with Tether, and you have Senator Lummis, who is
10:51
announcing that she is no longer running for, you know, the
10:57
United States Senate in 2027. There's no way to cut it.
11:03
There's no way to sugarcoat it. I think this is a big loss for
11:08
the movement. I think that, I think that and
11:14
I'll and I'll get to this. I think there's a, there's a
11:16
rabbit hole here and I'll kind of connect it with what was
11:20
happening with Elon and, and all that stuff.
11:24
There's no way to slice this. There's no way to spin this.
11:27
There's no way to cut this. There's no way to reframe this.
11:32
We had our two biggest advocates basically resign and, and
11:36
announce that they're, they're not running for office.
11:39
Now, Senator Lummus is still going to have a year in office
11:43
and she's going to do her best. She's going to work.
11:45
Her team is going to work on, on digital asset legislation.
11:50
But again, as a political junkie, I'm looking at this from
11:54
the outside and what I'm seeing is, and she kind of says this in
12:00
her statement. I'll pull it back up again just
12:03
so you guys could see it with me.
12:06
But look, she says this in her statement.
12:09
This isn't just me speculating. Deciding not to run for re
12:13
election doesn't represent a change of heart for me.
12:16
But in the difficult, exhausting session weeks this fall, I've
12:20
come to accept that I do not have six more years in me.
12:23
I'm a devout. I'm a devout legislator.
12:26
But I feel like a sprinter in a marathon.
12:28
I feel like that line really gives the towel, right?
12:32
So what I think that Senator Lummus ran into, and I think
12:38
that what Bo Hines ran into, is bureaucracy.
12:43
You can call it the administrative state, you call
12:46
it the deep state. I don't even call it the deep
12:48
state. It's just the administrative
12:49
states. It's the unelected bureaucracy
12:51
that remains in power no matter who gets elected.
12:55
And that unelected bureaucracy gets a tremendous amount of
12:58
power and influence over United States politics because they are
13:03
powered and funded by the United States Federal Reserve, right.
13:08
And what what what we've seen this entire year is that the
13:13
United States Federal Reserve has not been acting in a neutral
13:17
fashion. They've been acting in AI would
13:20
say they've been acting extremely politically.
13:23
I think they've been picking sides.
13:25
I think that they've tried to sabotage the Trump
13:28
administration's first year so that essentially, by the time
13:33
the midterms come around, he's no longer really a threat to
13:37
them, right? Because once the Democrats take
13:39
back in power, we know what the Democrats stand.
13:41
Not all of them, but we know how the Democrats feel about
13:45
Bitcoin, right? They want a central bank digital
13:48
currency. They don't want Bitcoin.
13:50
The Trump administration and the GOP have made it part of their
13:54
official party platform that they will stand for digital
13:57
assets. They'll stand for stable coins
13:59
and they'll stand for Bitcoin and they'll stand for the right
14:02
to self custody. If you're the Federal Reserve,
14:05
what do you, do you want competition or do you want up a
14:08
complete and utter monopoly right?
14:11
So I don't blame them for acting, you know, in in their
14:14
their own interest. That is something to be talked
14:17
about. And I think what happened with
14:19
Bo Hines and I think what what is what happened with Senator
14:22
Lummus is that they ran into this machine, this machine that
14:27
specializes in ensuring its survival, right?
14:31
That's literally what this bureaucracy, this massive
14:35
bureaucracy in Washington, DC is.
14:38
You saw a glimpse of that when Elon went in there with Doge.
14:43
Now Doge is officially shut down.
14:45
But you saw it was a combination of the legacy media attacking
14:49
what Elon was doing. And then it was a combination of
14:52
you saw it every single day on X.
14:55
It was like politicians would stand in front of buildings and
14:58
say, Oh my God, the world's going to burn down.
15:01
You know, like he's cutting all these things that shouldn't be
15:03
cut, even though there were so many inefficiencies that were
15:07
discovered. I mean, this was just announced
15:09
the other day the, the, the Pentagon just failed.
15:13
It's for it's 8th audit in a row, right?
15:16
So there's no accountability whatsoever.
15:20
And why would there be any accountability at all, right?
15:24
So again, I think this is what Bo Hines ran into.
15:27
I think that this is what Senator Lummis run into.
15:30
And I think it's utterly exhausting, right?
15:33
And I think that's why Elon left.
15:35
I think that's why Bo Hines left.
15:37
And I think This is why Senator Lummis, she's being very clear
15:40
with you guys. She's saying, listen, I just
15:43
this is going to require a ton of energy.
15:45
I want to Sprint to get all of this stuff done.
15:48
But I've come to realize that this is going to be a marathon,
15:52
right? This is going to take a lot
15:54
longer than what everybody anticipated.
15:58
And of course, like it's, you know, ladies and gentlemen, this
16:01
is the separation of money and state.
16:03
What did you expect? Did you expect something
16:06
different? Did you expect for them just to
16:08
give the keys over and say, all right, guys, you found better
16:11
money here, You you could go, you know, go, go do your thing,
16:15
right? No, it's going to take all it's
16:16
it was it was always going to take a lot longer.
16:19
And I think these are the lessons that we're learning.
16:21
But This is why it's so important to for you to stay in
16:26
the fight. Next man up right, keep your
16:29
head up and again get pro Bitcoin, anti CBDC people in
16:36
Congress and positions of power. And again, that is how slowly
16:41
but surely you will get the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
16:45
It it needs, you need the political will, but we've lost
16:49
the momentum and I think that's what I want to talk about on
16:52
today's intro. We've lost the momentum.
16:54
We've lost the momentum Bigley and I don't think we're going to
17:00
get this strategic Bitcoin reserve anytime soon.
17:03
And we had the opportunity in the beginning of the year.
17:06
We just didn't run fast enough to capitalize on it.
17:10
That's my take on all this. And yeah, I mean, Senator
17:14
Lummis, thank you for your service.
17:16
Bo Hines. I think you did an incredible
17:17
job as well. But that's how things stand.
17:21
And that's not my opinion. The betting odds seem to agree
17:25
with me as well. But anyways, now what is the
17:28
bright side of all this? The bright side of all this is
17:31
again, a lot of people were a lot of smart people were were
17:35
advocating for. There shouldn't be a strategic
17:37
Bitcoin reserve, right? You don't want governments to
17:41
have all of this Bitcoin. Maybe from a number go up
17:43
perspective it's positive, but from Bitcoins core mission of
17:48
the separation of money and state and ending this monopoly
17:52
by central banks, you actually don't want the government to
17:56
hold all this Bitcoin. You actually want these
17:58
initiatives to start happening on the state level, which they
18:02
are happening on the state level.
18:04
I think the state of Texas announced the other day that
18:07
they bought $5,000,000 worth of Bitcoin exposure.
18:11
That's the type of movement that you want, right?
18:14
And that's exactly what's happening, right.
18:17
So the silver lining is that that again, you have more time
18:23
to acquire more cheap Bitcoin because inevitably governments
18:27
are going to buy this. Like this is just a delay.
18:30
They're going to buy this. This is an inevitability.
18:33
Bitcoin is the best money the world has ever seen by a long
18:37
shot. So again, they're just going to
18:41
buy it at a much higher price. I remember having an interview
18:44
with Adam Back and he was saying like, look like governments are
18:47
just going to buy it at a much higher price than they are now.
18:49
If they don't want to take advantage of $100,000 Bitcoin,
18:53
$80,000 Bitcoin, they'll buy it at $500,000 Bitcoin, right?
18:57
So again, from a number go up perspective, I wouldn't say it's
19:00
very, very bullish news. From a kind of Bitcoin mission
19:04
perspective, it's incredibly bullish news because again, it
19:09
gives you the individual more opportunity to acquire cheap
19:13
Bitcoin and more opportunity for individuals to hold the lion's
19:18
share of Bitcoin rather than institutions and governments.
19:22
And that fundamentally, at the end of the day, if the Bitcoin
19:26
revolution is to succeed, it's going to succeed on an
19:30
individual level. It's not going to succeed by the
19:34
it's not going to succeed if it's driven by the institutions
19:38
or if it's driven by the government.
19:40
We kind of saw a glimpse of that in El Salvador.
19:43
In El Salvador, you had, you know, the launch of, of, of
19:46
Bitcoin as legal tender. You had the launch of the Chivo
19:49
app, but it was more top down. And what you saw is you didn't
19:53
really see that much adoption like I, I, I, I, I applaud
19:58
Naimbu Kelly for making Bitcoin legal tender.
20:00
I think it was a fantastic move. In a way, Bitcoin still is a
20:04
form of you could still use it as money in El Salvador, right?
20:07
But that's not how you want Bitcoin adoption to happen.
20:11
You want Bitcoin adoption to happen from the bottom up.
20:14
It fundamentally Bitcoin is a. Fast roots movement, right?
20:19
So anyhow, interesting news starting it off, I don't think
20:23
the strategic Bitcoin reserve is going to happen in 2025.
20:26
I don't think it's going to happen in 2026.
20:29
Let's see if it happens within Trump's first term.
20:32
He is heavily incentivized for this to happen.
20:36
He has one, he has the one of the top ten largest strategic
20:41
Bitcoin reserves. I mean, Bitcoin treasury
20:44
companies, his company just announced that they bought, you
20:47
know, more Bitcoin. I think it was, it was today or
20:50
yesterday. So he's heavily incentivized for
20:54
number to go up. He's heavily incentivized for
20:57
Bitcoin to succeed. His, his kids, Eric Trump
21:01
heavily involved in the, in the sector.
21:04
They're speaking at conferences left and right, their own
21:07
company, I think it's called American Bitcoin.
21:09
Again, they're heavily exposed to the markets.
21:13
And the reality is this, ladies and gentlemen, and 2025 was not
21:17
that great of a year for Bitcoin Year, year to date, it's down.
21:21
I think it's like 6%. If you go back 365 days, it's
21:26
down as well. So Bitcoin hasn't had a great
21:29
year. Now let's see what happens in
21:31
2027, in 2026. Is it going to finally break the
21:35
cycles? Are we going to have an
21:37
explosive rally? Let's see.
21:39
I think that's yet to be determined.
21:41
But Bitcoin has never had two years back-to-back in the red.
21:47
So if we end, if we end the year in this 90K8885K region and
21:54
that's what the price is in December 31st of 2025 heading
21:58
into January. But that would mean that all
22:01
Bitcoin would need to do is go up from there, right?
22:04
So that 2026 is uncharted territory.
22:08
We don't know where Bitcoins going to end up.
22:10
And I think that's the big question on everybody's minds.
22:13
No one knows the answer to it. And that makes me incredibly
22:18
effing bullish and excited. And the reason for that is, for
22:22
the first time in a long time, we have uncertainty in the
22:26
markets. And you want uncertainty in the
22:29
markets, we want people not to know exactly what's going to
22:33
happen because if someone tells you that something is guaranteed
22:37
to happen in the markets, usually the exact opposite tends
22:41
to happen. And that's exactly what we saw
22:43
this year. Everyone and their mother, we
22:45
are guilty of this ourselves. We're extremely bullish of of on
22:50
Q3 and Q4 of 2025. It's the year after the halving.
22:56
It tends to go parabolic. And you know what happened?
22:59
The exact opposite. It was bearish.
23:01
They were the most bearish the year after the halving
23:04
performances ever in Bitcoin's history.
23:07
So what happened? The market did exactly the
23:09
opposite of what everyone else is expecting.
23:11
So what does the majority, what does the consensus think Bitcoin
23:15
is going to do heading into 2026?
23:18
Everyone feels bearish. Most people say, listen, the
23:22
cycle is over. It's done.
23:24
You know, you had senator, Senator Lummis announcing she's
23:27
not running for re election. You have Bo Hines resigning.
23:30
The strategic Bitcoin reserve isn't happening.
23:32
It looks like the Republicans are going to lose the House.
23:35
Like everyone has this negative sentiment.
23:38
They're expecting, you know, downward, you know, price action
23:43
and again, markets do the exact opposite.
23:45
So in heading into 2026, we might actually have an
23:50
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