Latest / 3 Guys, 6 Balls NFL Podcast / EP 63: NFL Team Over Or Under Projected Win Totals

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EP 63: NFL Team Over Or Under Projected Win Totals · 3 Guys, 6 Balls NFL Podcast

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3 lifelong friends, 6 trusty balls and endless NFL ticks.
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Welcome to three guys 6 Balls NFL podcast.
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Welcome to episode 63 of Three guys 6 Balls NFL Podcast.
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I'm your host Joel and I'm here with my two Co hosts Will and
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Avery. And joining us today we have our
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friend and Chiefs fan Lincoln Cook.
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Lincoln, how you doing today? 63 guys, congratulations.
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Yeah, I can't wait for six more episodes.
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Also I'm at 62 out of 62 so. You have listened to every
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single episode. I appreciate.
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It I have indeed and I I was especially impressed by Zach the
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other week will actually super fun to hear two brothers just
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going back and forth about the data was on Cowboys he was.
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I'm 61 1/2 out of 62, so I haven't gotten that far yet.
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Let's go. I'll have to listen to that one.
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Avery's more like 1/4 of an. Episode.
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Yeah. Half.
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Half is generous. The half is generous.
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Am I supposed to be listening to this?
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I don't see the clips sometimes when they show up on my feed,
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like oh look, it's us. I think I listened to it enough
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for all three of us, so yeah. Fair enough, I just wait for Joe
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to tell me if I did good or bad and he never says either so I
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think OK I'm I'm coming back next weekend.
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Cool, cool, cool. Cool.
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No, it's a good topic. OK.
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What was that? I'm sorry. 63 is a great feat
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and I am very proud to be the first three time guest on that
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on the show so. You are the first three time
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guest. Well, the NFL schedule was
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released last week and now that we know the full schedule for
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each team, we're going to predict if certain teams in the
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NFL will get over or under their projected win totals this
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season. However, before we do that, do
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any of you guys have any thoughts on the NFL schedule
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release just in general? Lame.
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Dude it is so overrated. I thought the NFL did a really
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great job. Hats off Good, great Avery.
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Didn't watch one? Single video, they did a great
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job with it. I mean, the only good thing that
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came from it was Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins doing
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the step brothers thing, but even that was cool.
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Even that was cringy as crap, but it was still funny.
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Sure, I I would disagree with the cringy thing, but they can
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do that for an offseason campaign like marketing campaign
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anyway. You don't need to do that for a
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schedule release, just film that content.
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It had nothing to do with the schedule release.
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Then then release it later because people are not excited
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about the Raiders until they have to be.
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So do that late. They were excited for the draft
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Fernando Mendoza and then just wait and then release father son
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duo later on. I was not thrilled that my
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entire feed was 6 different videos.
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Now love the ramps. 6 different videos of their schedule release
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because I don't need this six different ways.
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Just put it in one image and let me look.
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I also don't want to watch a 4 1/2 minute video to see who
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every team is we're playing and then by the time we get back to
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the beginning I forget. So I just go to the Internet and
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look up the whole schedule anyway.
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It is overrated and overdone. It's like the worst thing of the
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NFL offseason and people try to make it a big deal.
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It's not. So it's just not pretend that
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it's something that it isn't, you know what I mean?
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We did get a moment that rivals Mark Davis himself.
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We got truly the most atrocious haircut I've seen an NFL player
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since since Tim Tebow's Friar Tuck haircut back in his work
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here. I thought this was fake.
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They cut Trevor this they cut Trevor orange his hair like this
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for the NFL schedule release. Now they will probably cut it
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again. He will probably have it cut
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again before the before the season starts but that is for
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there's a schedule release video they did.
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Is that a joke? Is it supposed to be like funny?
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Or is that like, is this what's in right now 'cause it's like,
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it's, you see what I mean? Like it's just on the edge.
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It's not like that Tim Tebow fryer cut or like some weird
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Mohawk. It's like, I can't tell if this
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is supposed to be bad or if someone's like, oh dude, he was
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cooking with that. Well, look at the comment.
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One of the comments right here says bro looks like Ellen.
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Well, that's just, well, that's just, those are just Instagram
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comments. And then the other, the other
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one says. The other one says wow, so
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inspiring a lesbian is finally in the NFL.
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I love the comments. They're undefeated.
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All right, guys. Hey, we have to cut this whole
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thing. We've been baited.
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It's not real. It's not real.
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It's a wig. Thank goodness.
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Still looks abysmal. And in that second point there
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he looks like Lord Farquaad. Wait is that one a wig too or
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did they actually cut his hair? Did they get two different?
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Wigs. He got his hair cut at all.
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OK, so they just got two different wigs for this.
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OK, OK, weird. All right.
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I was really hoping that was real.
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I also wanted that to be real. Well didn't take your B real
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today will since your your hip on the the youth's social media
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apps. I'm super, I'm not.
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Oh man, I. Don't know what B real is.
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I don't know what that is either.
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I don't Avery knows to do this professionally.
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I heard about, I heard about that in like 2022.
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I didn't know that was still a thing though.
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I that's shows you how much I know all.
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Right. Anyways, all right, So we've got
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eight teams that we can hopefully get through today and
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I don't bet, So I have no idea if these numbers are the same
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everywhere, but the numbers we're using for win totals are
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from Bet MGM. One last thing before we start
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doing that, Will is going to give us our bet Responsibly
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reminder. Oh, do it when you can, OK?
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Don't disregard your children or your wife if you need help 1800
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gambling OK, But if you can do it.
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It's so much fun and you're going to lose every time.
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You will lose so much money gambling, so don't do it.
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But if you do do it, do it responsibly.
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Don't gamble unless you feel really good about the bet.
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And this is like an 8 leg parway and they're all for sure.
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Going to hit unless it's a lock, don't bet.
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Unless some guy in a trench coat tells you, hey, I've got these
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six guaranteed hits this weekend, then do it.
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Dude, that, I mean, that checks out.
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Yeah. Just just don't, dude.
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Just gamble responsibly. And 21 and older in certain
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states, 18 and older than others.
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If you're an Oregon, you can't gamble on college and that's
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miserable unless you're on the federally land.
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My guess is how that needs to be worded.
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Gifted feels like the wrong word.
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OK, all right, well let's get into our first team, which is
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the Kansas City Chiefs since Lincoln is our guest today and
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he's a Chiefs fan. So for the Kansas City Chiefs,
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they have their win total set at 10 1/2.
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So are you guys taking the over or under on the Chiefs at 10 1/2
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wins this year? I'll go last.
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OK, Avery, why don't you go first since you predicted the
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Chiefs to miss the playoffs last season, which they did.
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Oh, did they? I wasn't even paying attention,
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but that tracks. I got them going under.
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I don't think they're that good anymore.
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I think they're in decline, just like the Warriors, you know, the
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past several years, just this. They got some pieces, but not
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all the pieces. And just, I mean, besides just
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playing in probably like the toughest division because of the
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Raiders. I think honestly most of this I
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just went through and I'm like, yeah, no, I, I saw their
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schedule and I'm like, yeah, they'll probably win at least
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like one or two games less. They'll probably win like 9
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games all. Right.
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Will, what do you think are you going over on?
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I have them. Going over and I have two
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stretches here. They play home against The Jets
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at Atlanta, home against Arizona and an AT Buffalo in a four-game
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stretch. I have them actually winning all
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four of those and they go at Rams and they could not possibly
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pick them to beat the Rams in the Rams House.
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Could not possibly. And then their last five were at
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Cincinnati and who knows what Cincinnati is going to be this
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year, home against New England, home against San Francisco at
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the Chargers and home against Las Vegas.
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So I think they finish on A5 game win streak.
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So I think they win four in a row, lose one with the Rams,
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finish on A5 game win streak. So it's nine games already.
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And so they only need 1 1/2 games to be hit the over at that
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point for the rest of their schedule.
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I have them actually going 12 and five this year.
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Hitting the over. Dang.
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I will. That's music to my ears.
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So I'm actually going to go with the under, but I'm going to go
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with ten wins, so just slightly under.
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So the Chiefs have the 5th hardest schedule in the NFL this
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year and I know will just kind. Of for finishing third in their
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division to still have one of the hardest schedules is crazy.
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Yeah, they have to challenge Patrick Mahomes a little bit
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anyway. So just to break it down a
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little bit. So I know Will kind of just
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broke down the schedule, but they start off at home against
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the Broncos, which is a division rivalry game to start the
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season. And that's not going to be an
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easy start. But then after that I feel like
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they have three very winnable games against the Colts,
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Dolphins and Raiders, followed by an early season by.
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So heading into their by they should be 3 in one at worst.
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I feel like after that they have three straight tough games
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against the Chargers, Seahawks and Broncos, followed by three
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very winnable games against The Jets, Falcons and Cardinals.
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But then it gets tough again. From Week 12 on is where we find
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out who the 2026 Chiefs really are.
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Prior to Week 12, the Chiefs have a couple of favorable
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stretches in their schedule where they can stack some wins.
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But starting Week 12, they play the Bills, Rams and Bengals all
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on the road for three straight weeks.
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Followed by the Patriots who were just in the Super Bowl last
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year, the 49ers who won 12 games without 90% of their team last
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year, and then two division games against the Chargers and
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Raiders. The Chiefs late season schedule
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is not going to be easy. And so if they can stack some
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wins in there, we're going to be looking at the Chiefs as a team.
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Nobody wants to play in the playoffs.
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But it's also possible this part of the schedule keeps them out
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of the playoffs. But I think they get back in
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this year. I mean, are we ready?
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Are we ready for a Week 1 matchup of Justin Fields first
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Jared Stadium? I hope so.
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Both guys are reported to be back, but both Knicks are going
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to be back and Mahomes are going to be back.
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Sure, Monday. Night Football Justin Fields
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Starting Let's Go I. He's not starting.
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There's no way. There's no way.
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Yeah. So that's what that's what this
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first game is going to look like.
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And that's where the defense is really going to matter a lot
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more, which is why the only reason why I picked Denver over
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KC in the very first game. But but there's a legitimate
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possibility we get Justin Fields versus Jared Stidham Week 1
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Monday Night Football in the NFL, and that is a bummer.
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That's just a big old bummer. Yeah, they're both supposed to
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be back before the season starts.
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And I'm considering going out to KC for that game because it's
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just going to be electric, but not if Justin Fields is
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starting. I feel like Patrick Mahomes is
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going to play. I thought he's going to play.
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But I thought knee injuries took longer than that to recover from
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at least 16 months. It's got to come up every single
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at least 25 months. Shout out Jamad McCoy.
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Shout out. So I guess just asking you guys,
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what do you think the Chiefs offseason moves like?
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Do you think they made a significant step up and we lost?
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And Congrats to you Will, for taking our secondary, no.
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No, thank you. Appreciate that you're.
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You're welcome, man. I mean, that's the only question
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I have on the roster. Is there secondary right now?
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I don't love Kenneth Walker. I don't think that's going to
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make that much of a difference, to be honest.
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I I realize that's a very pessimistic take, but like, I
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don't know. How long can we keep?
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Yeah, sure. How long can you keep Patrick
11:34
mom down? That's like, I mean, that's
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really all that it is. I don't know how much we're
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getting from Kelsey this year. If I were to actually bet on it,
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I would bet the under and then happily take the over as a fan
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of the team, because sometimes it's good to hedge your bets as
11:50
I have not done that in the past.
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And it's coming to bite me in the butt where I've just doubled
11:54
down on the Chiefs. But I'm really excited about the
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Chiefs defensive line. I mean, we got Peter Woods and
12:00
our Mason Thomas shut up the R. And then we also got Karis Tonga
12:04
to go along with George Karloftis and Chris Jones.
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So like the defensive line I think is leaps and bounds better
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than it was last season. At least I hope it is right.
12:15
And I think just bringing back our full offensive line another
12:18
year there, like I think we'd be better in the trenches, which is
12:21
where we got beat up last year for a lot of our losses.
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I mean, obviously moms didn't play great.
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Andy Reid did not call the best games last year.
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So I imagine that's going to be improved.
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But I think our trenches are where we do have strength and
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where teams like the Bills, I mean, Bills didn't do.
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I feel like they didn't hardly do anything this offseason.
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Cincinnati not worried about them as much, but that that Los
12:46
Angeles Week 13 game on Prime Video, I think that's going to
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be the biggest indicator of where the Chiefs are of the
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season. So.
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Lincoln, I have a question for you and you kind of mentioned it
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already, but so before the draft you said that you felt like the
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Chiefs secondary would struggle this year.
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Did what the Chiefs did in the draft change your opinion on
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that at all? I.
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Mean we replaced Trent Mcduffey with Mansur Dillane, which I
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think Mansur Dillane is going to be a great player.
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I don't love that we had to trade up for him.
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I understand why we had to. I think he's I think he's going
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to be a sufficient level starter for 678 years at least.
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The secondary coaches have done a really good job boosting up
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players that aren't really that great.
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I mean, no offense to Jalen Watson, he's a decent player,
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but he's not. I don't think he's worth what he
13:34
got paid by the Rams. Props to him for getting the
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bag. But like, we're going to develop
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younger guys. I mean, we still have Will's
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favorite cornerback last season. I think he's going to take a
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step up. And we also got Cater Coho from
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the Dolphins. Williams.
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No Williams. Love no Williams, you love no
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Williams Wills. Guy, I don't.
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Love no. Williams No.
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That's your guy. I heard it on this podcast that
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he's your guy. Yeah.
14:00
No, Williams is making the best of being bad situation.
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And then I mean, we let go of Brian Cook in the secondary.
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So like that's going to be a little bit tough.
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But I mean we I think Christian Fulton and we also got Kyer
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Elam. So we have like some veteran
14:15
depth to also go with the young guys.
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And I think it's just going to be competition across the board.
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And with injuries, we've stacked up a deeper secondary this year
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than we did last year all. Right.
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Do you guys have any additional thoughts on the Chiefs before we
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move on? I think they're going to play
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some football this year. I would say so.
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Well, let's move on to our next team.
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So our next team is New York Giants, who have their win total
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set at 7 1/2. Are you guys taking the over or
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under on the Giants winning 7 1/2 games this season?
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Will, we'll start with you. Look, I'm noted as last week
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saying that the Giants are up right now.
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I think they're on the way up. I think they're doing big
14:50
things. I have them actually at the
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under by half a game. I've been winning seven games
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this year, which is up from last year.
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And it should not be touted as a bad thing.
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They won what, five games last year, 4 games last year,
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something like that. And so two extra games is
15:03
nothing to to sneeze at. NFL they just had don't have it
15:06
easy. And I, I'm just going by vibes
15:09
the way Avery did last year. I don't have any acid statistics
15:11
on anything. This is all just gut checking.
15:13
They just, they finished the season in a in a rough stretch.
15:16
They start the season fortunate for them to play the Cardinals
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and they play Miami this year. They don't play Miami, excuse
15:21
me, wrong team, but they do play the Cardinals.
15:24
So that's not Mike. When they play Tennessee, that's
15:26
good for them, but they don't start good and we don't start.
15:29
You start. They start home against Dallas
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and then at the Rams for their first two games.
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And that is just a rough way to start the season.
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And it's just a rough way to have morale in your locker room
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when you're trying to be up and up.
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And Harbaugh's a good coach. That's like that is that should
15:43
be taken into consideration. But it's also the first year
15:46
under Harbaugh. And so you've got their rookies
15:48
sensations last year with Jackson Dart and Cam scouted
15:50
coming back in. This year, you've got million
15:53
neighbors coming back, but all of them are coming back.
15:55
Well, not dark, but they're all coming back up.
15:57
Some sort of injury coming into a new system.
16:00
And so you're recovering. We're also learning new ways to
16:03
play football that you have done in the past, but it's just
16:05
different now. And so I think they're going to
16:07
start slur. They'll pick up a couple wins,
16:09
but eventually just still Dylan 7 and 10 at the end of the
16:12
season I got. The same as Will, I also think
16:14
under, I like John Harbaugh. I actually like the Giants.
16:17
I like Scativo, I like Dart, I like, I like their offseason
16:21
moves the past two years. I just don't think it's going to
16:25
materialize. And for the record, I mean, I'll
16:30
die on this hill. All of this is vibes because I
16:33
mean, like, they'll put the odds.
16:35
If they didn't have the odds and you were going off of nothing,
16:39
then yeah, you could look at statistics and everything.
16:41
But for the most part, I mean, the over under, I mean, it's
16:44
basically a coin flip for the most part.
16:46
I just don't feel like they're going to.
16:49
I don't think it's going to materialize.
16:51
I think there's a lot of hype. I think they are on the right
16:54
trajectory. I like what they're doing, but I
16:56
still think they win seven games.
16:58
I'm kind of anti giants. They've been glazed by everybody
17:02
because scataboo is so fun and Jackson Dart is a tool and
17:07
whatever. But like, I like their draft
17:11
actually a lot. I like Francis Malanoa and Arbel
17:13
Reese. I even like Malachi Fields as a
17:15
move. I'd like it to be noted that
17:18
they already have Francis Malanoa listed as right guard.
17:22
Do they really? They do.
17:23
They do. Was was correct.
17:24
Hey, you should just move him to guard.
17:26
Just don't put him a tackle. Move him to guard.
17:28
Said that in the offseason before the draft.
17:31
I'm taking the win on that one. Please continue.
17:33
Oh great win take take your dubs when you have them and don't
17:37
acknowledge your losses. That's that's how we do it.
17:39
That's the way we do it, America.
17:42
I mean, I think their schedules not overly insane.
17:46
Dallas is a is a winnable game week 1 Tennessee and Arizona
17:50
weeks three and four. It's it's reasonable that they
17:52
start the season out 500 and Washington and New Orleans and
17:56
Houston. So like I don't know, you never
17:58
know, But I do think that the sophomore slump for Jackson dart
18:00
is on its way. I think teams will be able to
18:03
game plan better for him and props to the betters Vegas.
18:08
These lines are so dadgum well sent set that it's just I mean,
18:14
there's a whole reason that they the house always wins and it's
18:18
because they have these lines so well set.
18:20
But to go 3 1/2 games up from what they did last year, even
18:24
with Harbaugh, who I think will turn around the organization and
18:27
do well. I just don't believe in Jackson
18:29
dart enough. Even with the additions of like
18:31
Isaiah likely and their defensive line is still as good
18:34
as it is. I'm going to bet the ender as
18:36
well. So.
18:37
I'm the only one who's going to take the over here.
18:39
I'm only going to go with eight wins, but I am going over.
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I feel like last year when the Giants drafted Jackson Dart,
18:44
everyone was excited to see him play and then they drafted Cam
18:47
Scataboo and the two of them helped the Giants become
18:50
exciting to watch again, which is something the Giants hadn't
18:53
been for a long time. So it was exciting to see what
18:56
Jackson Dart and Cam Scataboo were doing last season and I
18:58
think this year it translates to more wins, just not enough wins.
19:03
The Giants brought in John Harbaugh to help change the
19:05
culture of his team and I feel like the Giants have a very
19:08
similar pieces to what John Harbaugh had with the Baltimore
19:11
Ravens. Jackson Dart is his Lamar
19:13
Jackson, Cam Scataboo is his Derrick Henry.
19:16
His wide receiver room is built very similar to how it was in
19:18
Baltimore. Isaiah Likely is his Isaiah
19:21
Likely and he's got 2 tight ends who are going to contribute to
19:24
the offense. In Baltimore it was Mark Andrews
19:26
and Isaiah Likely and now it's Isaiah Likely and Theo Johnson
19:29
who had 45 catches for 528 yards and five touchdowns last year.
19:32
For the Giants. This is basically the New York
19:36
Ravens or the Baltimore Giants, whatever you want to call them,
19:38
but they have the skill positions that John Harbaugh
19:40
wants and they got bigger and more physical on the offensive
19:43
line. So I would not be surprised if
19:45
this Giants offense is significantly better and one of
19:48
the better offenses in the league this year.
19:50
The problem is, is I can't give them more than eight wins
19:54
because I think the NFC East is going to be very competitive
19:57
this year. The Giants made moves to get
19:59
better. We know what the Cowboys offense
20:01
is and they made a lot of moves to improve their defense.
20:03
The commander should be a lot better and more.
20:05
More competitive this year as long as Jaden Daniels is healthy
20:08
and say what you want about Jalen Hurts and the Eagles
20:09
offense, but they're still going to have one of the best defenses
20:12
in the league. Despite how bad the Eagles
20:14
played offensively at times last year, the Eagles defense kept
20:17
them in and really won them several games.
20:19
So as much as I like the Giants this year, I just think it's
20:22
going to be a really tough division to come out on top of
20:24
I. Think it's well said, but do we
20:26
like Baltimore Giants or New York Ravens?
20:29
Which is better? Baltimore already gets to claim
20:31
the Colts, so we have to New York.
20:34
The record like that. Let's just call them The Jets.
20:39
Eight wins. You're right, they should be
20:41
called the New Jersey Giants. Wait, The Jets win?
20:43
Eight games you're already. Here first Davidson Jets win
20:45
eight games confirmed. I think The Jets What if The
20:50
Jets win more games than the Giants?
20:53
Firefighter Steve, whatever that guy's name is, you know Kenyon
20:56
with. Geno Zone.
20:58
All right, let's move on to our next team here, which is the
21:01
Houston Texans who have their win total set at 9 1/2.
21:04
Avery, are you taking the over or under on the Texans winning 9
21:07
1/2 games this year? I.
21:08
Got over. I feel like the Texans the past
21:11
few years kind of the the same deal with the Bills, in my
21:16
opinion, have just underperformed to what I think
21:21
that they have the ability to do, not just like expectations,
21:25
but just you know, whether it's, you know, situationally in a
21:29
game or whatever. I think the Houston Texans have
21:32
a lot more potential and I think this season they break out a bit
21:37
more and make a bit of a name for themselves.
21:40
And I think CJ Stroud hopefully tries to help everyone forget
21:44
how the end of last season went, but I think I think they'll go
21:47
over. I'm going to smash the under.
21:50
I don't believe in CJ Stroud. A lot of my belief and thought
21:54
process on teams is based on what I think of their
21:57
quarterback. That said, I love Damiko Ryan's.
22:00
I think he's a great coach. I think the organization is run
22:03
fairly well. Like there's not too much drama
22:06
since they got rid of Deshaun Watson, but like, I don't know.
22:09
I don't. Their defense is great.
22:11
I don't believe in their offense.
22:13
They got Montgomery from the Lions.
22:16
Is that going to do anything? I don't know.
22:18
Was not impressed by the draft at all.
22:21
I don't feel like they actually got that much better.
22:23
They've been working on improving their offensive line
22:25
and they just make mediocre moves.
22:27
Like they're not doing anything that's actually significant
22:30
enough to me. I don't necessarily believe in
22:33
the Jaguars either, but I still think it's the Jaguars division
22:37
and I see the Colts and the Titans being middle of the pack,
22:42
mediocre teams, but I also see the Texans being just slightly
22:46
above them. So I'm going to take that, take
22:48
that under thinking that the Titans will snag one from them
22:52
and their season honestly doesn't start out great with
22:54
Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indy and Dallas.
22:57
So I mean, it's realistic that they go one and three in those
23:00
first four games. So I'm going to take the under.
23:03
Will. Houston, I'm I'm taking you
23:08
over. I'm taking you over by more than
23:10
one game. Actually, I've got them going 11
23:12
and six this year. I think they've got a really
23:15
winnable, I don't want to say easy, but really winnable
23:17
stretch in the middle with actually starting with this is
23:20
week four, week 4 at Dallas, at Dallas, home against, excuse me,
23:25
home against Dallas, at Tennessee, at Jacksonville.
23:28
And it's early season Jacksonville.
23:29
I think that's still very gettable.
23:30
And they're home against the Giants.
23:32
Then they have a bye week and they're at the Chargers and who
23:35
knows what the Chargers are this year.
23:36
Truly could not tell you one way or another.
23:39
They're going to be the Chargers every single time.
23:42
They're going to be right there in every game and not be able to
23:44
close it out. What do we expect?
23:46
And they're at Cleveland and they're home against
23:48
Indianapolis. And this is that's late season
23:50
Indianapolis where they're not going to win any more games.
23:53
So that that 1234567, dare I say seven games in a row where I
23:58
think that they have a real, real fair, if not above average
24:01
Charlie winning them. We saw what the difference did
24:03
last year. I don't think their difference
24:04
got any worse and they're really any better offensively as they
24:07
continue to to click. Again, this isn't this is no
24:10
research. It's all just straight vibes.
24:12
I'm going 11 and six this year, hitting the over I'm.
24:16
Going with Will, I'm also going with the over on the Texans
24:19
winning 9 1/2 games this year and it's simply because of their
24:22
defense. The Texans already had the best
24:24
defense in the NFL last year and now that defense added Reed
24:28
Blankenship to the secondary and Kate McDonald to the defensive
24:30
line. Where do you beat this defense?
24:32
The only weakness the Texans defense has is that it doesn't
24:35
play offense too. Just go look at the playoff game
24:37
between the Texans and the Patriots last year and you'll
24:39
know exactly what I mean. Turnover.
24:41
Bowl. Yes, the Texans defense drug the
24:43
Texans offense through the mud and out of a three and five
24:46
start to a 12 and five record in a playoff win last season, and
24:50
there's no reason to think it couldn't do the exact same thing
24:52
this year too. All the Texans offense has to do
24:55
is just not suck. They don't even have to be good.
24:57
They just have to not suck. And I do think the Texans got
25:00
better offensively, specifically on the offensive line.
25:03
They brought in Wyatt Teller. They brought in Braden Smith.
25:05
They drafted Keelan Rutledge. This Texans offensive line
25:08
should be a lot better this year.
25:10
And between the defense and the offensive line being better,
25:12
there's no way I can put them under 9 1/2 wins.
25:15
So I also have them winning 11 games just like Will.
25:17
Yeah. But can we talk about how CJ
25:19
Stroud is not actually good? Like how he was so electric his
25:24
rookie season? Because you.
25:25
Weren't expecting it. Same thing with Kaepernick,
25:28
right? You weren't expecting that.
25:29
We still talk about that guy. We're still talking about that
25:31
guy because. Is he still trying out for any
25:33
kind of? Set the precedents right, like
25:35
like they were running quarterbacks in the league and
25:38
in his draft year is where, hey, we actually want a really mobile
25:42
guy who can still kind of throw the ball.
25:45
That kind of became the market and we kind of shipped it off of
25:47
that a bit to where we need somebody who's kind of mobile
25:50
and can really turn the ball like like the Mahomes type.
25:54
And I say what you want, Mahomes is not really mobile.
25:56
He's kind of mobile and has a really good arm.
25:59
He's mobile enough. Mobile enough, that's all you
26:01
need. You don't need a Peyton Manning.
26:02
You don't need a Ben Roethlisberger.
26:03
They have to. They can't have cement in their
26:05
shoes. But we also don't need 32 Lamar
26:08
Jackson's, who is a really good runner and can throw the ball
26:11
good enough. I think he's gotten a lot better
26:13
throwing the ball. But you're right, See, nobody
26:15
expected CJ Stroud in his first year to do what he did.
26:18
And then everyone's like, oh, this is how you beat this guy
26:20
and he just never adjusted. And call it coaching flaws, call
26:23
it whatever you want. You just have to continue to
26:25
modify your game. That's why you see Mahomes
26:28
picking up the sidearm and you see all these guys picking up
26:31
the no look throws that that kind of went away for a while
26:34
and it's it's dying out with with the final years of of
26:38
Rogers shout out Pittsburgh. Glad you're cementing yourself
26:41
to a six win season, but the Rogers and and Matt Stafford,
26:47
Eric kind of being the final piece of those ball throwers
26:51
retiring, you're going to miss a lot of these no looks and those
26:54
these weird, weird kind of things.
26:56
Mahomes is the only one doing tricks like that still That's
26:59
that's a young younger, so it it's just a different game now.
27:03
And Stigie Astrog was known to be like cerebral like that was
27:07
like his like thing because he's not that mobile.
27:09
He's kind of mobile enough, but he was like more cerebral than
27:12
anything else. And so people are like, oh, it's
27:14
going to be kind of like a Joe Burrow type of type of
27:16
quarterback where he can move around in the pocket.
27:18
He can make the throws because he can see the throws, but it's
27:21
just like he can't see him anymore.
27:23
His rookie or he literally looked like he was a step ahead
27:25
and now he's just. And he was talking about it all
27:28
offseason, talking through plays mean like, Oh yeah, I know all
27:31
this and this and this and then has just no showed how.
27:34
Much Do you guys attribute that to the just a bad offensive line
27:37
though? I attribute it more to coaching
27:40
because you're you as a coach have to make adjustments to put
27:43
your players in the right spot. And if you just have the same
27:46
game plan year after year after year, teams are going to queue
27:49
in on it and and then you're just going to lose.
27:52
It's like he, it's like, dare I say, Robin Hood wearing the Wing
27:55
T for 50 straight years to spread high school.
27:58
Eventually everyone knows which fight high school is going to
28:00
run. And you just you just your whole
28:02
week of practice is this is how you beat the Wing T And so and
28:06
so you don't win. You have to be able to change
28:08
things up and you have to have the same look, but it's a
28:10
different play. And I just don't and see that
28:13
out of the detections offense, I don't.
28:15
Believe in CJ Stroud enough and defenses tend to regress, so
28:19
that's where I'm at I. Would be very surprised if the
28:21
Texans defense regresses though, because they pretty much
28:24
retained everybody on that team and they added pieces.
28:27
So I don't know, we'll see. All right, so our next team here
28:30
is the Detroit Lions, who have their win total set at 10 1/2.
28:34
Lincoln will start with you on this one.
28:35
Are you taking the over or under on the Lions getting 10 1/2 wins
28:38
this year? I'm.
28:39
Going to take the under only because I think that this is the
28:43
toughest division in the NFL this season.
28:45
I'm not the biggest Bears fan. I crapped on the Bears last year
28:48
and say and they proved me wrong.
28:51
I mean, whoever, I can't remember your guest.
28:53
That was the Bears guy, but I mean, he was way more right than
28:57
I expected him to be. I still kind of believe in the
28:59
Packers too. I think the Vike.
29:02
I mean, I don't necessarily believe in Kyler or 9 being
29:06
being the solution, but but I love Kevin O'Connell so much and
29:11
I think the Vikings will still be decent enough.
29:13
I think they're just going to get beat up so much in their own
29:16
division that them surpassing or getting eleven wins is pretty
29:22
lofty. I still like the Lions.
29:25
I still think they'll be a competitive team, I think
29:26
they'll be a playoff team, but I just don't see them getting to
29:29
11 wins. I think they took a big step
29:32
backwards by getting rid of. You don't like Pacheco?
29:35
I said I don't like Pacheco. I just don't think he's as good
29:38
as David Montgomery. I don't really like Pacheco,
29:40
actually, if I'm being honest with you, I don't like.
29:43
Pacheco my fantasy team, and he screwed me.
29:45
Pacheco. Is very merry and Barbara Esque
29:47
very, very 2000s core Dallas Cowboys running back, Yeah.
29:53
His Barbara and his peak was dope.
29:56
Yes, he ran 80 yards. He had a 5 yard gain.
29:59
OK, but you know what, it was exciting to watch.
30:02
It was so exciting because you didn't know what was going to
30:05
happen. Are we losing 10 yards or we
30:06
gained 5? What's happening anyway?
30:09
So, so no, I think it took a step, a little bit of a step
30:12
backwards on offense because they they stayed stagnant.
30:15
The only real, I mean they've they've gotten backups right
30:18
now. Nobody is starting.
30:19
They've got the same, same three wide receivers, St.
30:22
Brown, Jameson Williams and Isaac Tesla.
30:25
You still got Penne Sewell, you brought in a couple, you drafted
30:29
the first round right tackle, you brought in a free agent
30:32
center. So you've got the pieces.
30:34
I just, I don't trust Jared Goffin up to to be the full on
30:37
leader of a team and then he doesn't have the right kind of
30:41
help this year. I don't think the tandem of
30:45
Gibbs and Pacheco is just not the same.
30:48
It just won't be the same. There's no way.
30:51
I do have the under here. I have them at ten wins, but
30:55
they don't have an easy schedule.
30:57
Oh, actually, they have the easiest schedule.
30:58
I lie. I'm just, I'm just going to say.
31:00
Like what is the? Schedule is the absolute
31:02
easiest. I was reading this chart
31:04
backwards. They are #1 but that's easiest
31:07
schedule. So I do have them at ten wins
31:09
but it doesn't start good. I think Carolina is going to be
31:13
better than people think this year.
31:15
I also have been losing their last three games in the season
31:18
going into playoffs, so I'm a 10 and seven this year, just barely
31:23
hitting the under. I got him going over I.
31:26
Think the Detroit Lions come back to the Lions of two seasons
31:30
ago. I think they make a big
31:32
comeback, I think this past season and that's.
31:35
A play short of the Super Bowl. Sure.
31:39
That they get, they go over 10 games, they go over 10 1/2.
31:42
I think they go eleven wins. I think that schedule pays off
31:45
for him. I think they win despite
31:48
Pacheco. Yeah, I think they're they're
31:50
looking good. I'm.
31:51
Also taking the over on this one, I'm going with eleven wins
31:54
as well. Two seasons ago, the Lions had
31:56
the number one offense in the league with Ben Johnson as their
31:58
offensive coordinator and when he left to go to the Bears,
32:00
everyone said the Lions would take a step back offensively
32:02
because Ben Johnson wasn't there anymore.
32:04
And they did. They went from #1 scoring to
32:07
being tied for fourth in scoring.
32:09
The Lions had the #4 scoring offense last season with a bad
32:12
offensive coordinator and this year they have another new
32:14
offensive coordinator because they fired their coordinated
32:16
from last season. We're not going to know if this
32:18
offensive coordinator is good or not until we see it, but I truly
32:22
don't think it matters. The Lions had issues on the
32:24
offensive line last season and this offseason they invested in
32:27
upgrading the offensive line so they could get back to being one
32:30
of the top off it. Well, the top offense in the
32:32
league because they were still one of the top offenses, but
32:35
they invested in the offensive line so they could get back to
32:36
being one of the top offenses in the league.
32:38
They brought in center Kate Mays from the Panthers and then they
32:41
drafted Clemson offensive tackle Blake Miller with pick 17.
32:44
They're going to put him on the right side and move Penne Sewell
32:47
to the left, which I think is going to be in favor of Jared
32:50
Goff because Penne Sewell is one of the best offensive lineman in
32:53
the league. So I think that's going to help
32:54
Jared Goff a lot. I do have some questions about
32:57
their defense, but I think the Lions are just going to be able
32:59
to outscore people this year with their offense, so I'm
33:02
taking over. Can we?
33:02
Talk about Taylor Decker and like what happened there.
33:06
It's really confusing to me. Just like soured and they just
33:09
were like going to give up on him, didn't want to pay him
33:11
anymore. They're like you're not worth
33:12
the money. And he's like, whoa, I've been
33:14
like a decent, he's middle of the pack tackle, which is tough
33:18
to come by. So he's still 32.
33:20
He's got a few years left in him, but.
33:22
Also, if their plan was to move their right tackle, Penne Sul to
33:25
left tackle, you're going to have one of the best left
33:27
tackles in the NFL. And then they drafted A Rook.
33:30
Well, I know there it's going to be a rookie on the right side,
33:32
but you upgraded your left tackle spot significantly by
33:35
putting Penne Sul on the left. So but.
33:37
Like Will's talked about, it's not necessarily he's going to be
33:40
as good at left tackle as he wasn't right?
33:42
And also you're banking on a rookie being better than a 10
33:45
year veteran. I guess we'll see what happens.
33:48
All. Right.
33:49
Our next team is the New England Patriots and they have their
33:52
total set at 9 1/2. So Will, we'll start with you.
33:55
Are you taking the over or under on the Patriots winning 9 1/2
33:59
games this year? I truly don't know.
34:01
My computer froze and I have no access to my information.
34:04
The fact that I can even talk to you still is is amazing.
34:06
I can't go. Off vibes web pages.
34:09
Under, Honestly, the vibes say under.
34:12
I don't. I think there's too much noise
34:14
in the offseason for this team. I'm not saying Viber lost the
34:17
trust to the team for Benny Diane Rossini, but I mean, come
34:21
on, you're you're letting the the outside in and you're
34:27
getting in on the outside. I just, there's just no way.
34:31
I mean, look at the Eagles, right?
34:32
The Eagles still win games, but there's just so much other noise
34:36
and, and the Eagles have it to where the noise is coming from
34:39
inside. But when you've got outside
34:41
noise leaking in or you're leaking into the outside noise
34:45
wherever you want to college shout out Brabel.
34:47
I just it's just there's just no way to remain constant, right.
34:51
You're you've lost respect to your teammates because both
34:54
people were married are married. And so like you lose your
34:56
teammates, you lose respect from your players, you lose respect
34:59
from from people in the league and it's just going to have a
35:03
negative effect on their team throughout the season.
35:05
I have a win total. I've got the under for them.
35:07
I don't know what it is. I can't look.
35:09
Give me a see if I can't find it another way here, just go on my
35:14
phone. Can we just talk about kind of
35:17
diabolical that the over under for the Super Bowl runner UPS is
35:22
9 1/2 that's. Because they had like the.
35:24
Ravens schedule in the. League last year.
35:26
Yeah, but it's just like, that's just like shows you where
35:30
they're actually at, you know what I mean?
35:31
I don't. Believe in Drake may at all.
35:34
While Will's looking, I'm going to give mine, so I'm going to go
35:37
under and I'm going to put him at nine wins.
35:39
And the reason why is because last season the Patriots had one
35:41
of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
35:43
During the regular season last year, the Patriots played nine
35:46
games against a bottom 10 defense and 0 games against the
35:50
top 10 defense until the playoffs, where the teams they
35:52
played had good defenses but horrible offenses until they got
35:56
to the Super Bowl and they played Seattle, who had both a
35:58
good offense and defense. This season the Patriots have
36:01
six games against teams that had a bottom 10 defense last year,
36:04
but the difference is is they also play six games against
36:07
teams that had a top 10 defense last year.
36:09
I understand that things change in the NFL from year to year, so
36:12
maybe those top 10 defenses from last season aren't as good this
36:15
year, but it seems like the Patriots are going to have a
36:17
much more balanced schedule this season.
36:19
So if the Patriots are good, we're not going to be able to
36:22
use the they have the easiest schedule talk anymore, But if
36:25
they're mediocre or bad, we will be able to say we told you they
36:29
were only good because of their schedule last year.
36:31
I still think the Patriots win a decent amount of games and
36:33
they're right there competing for the playoffs, but there's no
36:36
way they're winning 14 games again this year.
36:38
I have them at 9:00 and 8:00, by the way, so losing record from
36:42
Super Bowl runner or Super runner up to losing record.
36:46
So I just wait. That's the I don't. 9:00 and
36:49
8:00 is a losing record. Excuse me?
36:50
8:00 and 9:00 This is my dyslexia coming in eight and
36:53
nine I can show you here. It says 8:00 and 9:00.
36:56
Too much CTE. That's the one their last four.
37:01
It it's a real roller coaster at Kansas City, at New Jersey Jets,
37:06
excuse me, I know it's their New York Jets.
37:08
They play in New Jersey, you go for it.
37:10
So at Kansas City, at The Jets home against Denver, home
37:13
against Miami. So just a real like easy, hard,
37:17
easy, hard kind of schedule thing going on there.
37:19
We don't know what Denver's going to be, but they're, I know
37:20
what I said, they've they've got I, I just don't get torn apart.
37:25
I don't like the Patriots this year.
37:27
I didn't like them last year and they just kept surprising
37:29
everyone. They're just not going to
37:31
surprise people this year. This they're going to expect a
37:33
Super Bowl runner up and they're just not going to play like it.
37:36
That's. Going to get some fat podcaster
37:37
comments on YouTube for sure. OK.
37:41
Here, let me take a bite of this glizzy.
37:50
All right, if we give us some thoughts on the Patriots.
37:53
I think the Patriots are going. Over.
37:58
I think this variable attention is going to light a fire under
38:02
their asses. Sorry, Dad.
38:04
And I think whatever Linda Carlisini, whatever her name is,
38:10
I had a root for. You.
38:11
Guys, I think he got it. He got it.
38:12
He got it, He got it. I think she's I, I think she's
38:16
been great for team morale in a weird roundabout way, I think.
38:22
For sure. Yeah, I think all of this, I
38:27
think Drake May takes a big step forward and I, I think his wife
38:33
continues cooking for this team, literally.
38:36
And I, I think they're gonna, I think they're gonna win 10 games
38:41
and then drastically underperform in the in the
38:43
postseason if they make it. Do you?
38:45
Think the ten win team will make it to the OR will not make it to
38:47
the postseason this year I. Think it's possible?
38:50
Very possible. Yeah, I think the Patriots could
38:52
find a way. Hey, you talking, Josh?
38:55
Oh, Computer froze. We're back.
38:59
I'm not bad. I'm not fully back.
39:00
I got nothing. We can still see you and hear
39:03
you. So yeah.
39:04
Everyone's still moving on the screen.
39:06
I can still see everything happening.
39:07
I just can't switch tabs. Very fortunate I have this one
39:11
pulled up, I guess. Anyway, all right, let's.
39:15
Move on to our next team, which is the Cincinnati Bengals.
39:18
So the Cincinnati Bengals have their own total.
39:20
Check. I'm going to take the under on
39:21
the Patriots. So oh.
39:23
Sorry, did I not did you not go? I did not, but that's OK.
39:27
I I agree with everybody except for Avery.
39:29
I. Figured I figured everybody got
39:30
their their affair. So I was just laughing at the
39:34
court. For able God, his affair is in
39:40
order. Yeah, there you go.
39:42
Now you. Have a.
39:44
Dude, I ever seen name their kid Michael.
39:48
Yeah, I mean, I I should. Yeah, no.
39:50
No, obviously not Rosini. Not Rosini and Vrabel's kid, I
39:55
think. But Rosini and her husband named
39:57
their second child Michael while this was going on.
40:01
I just come on. That's some deep love stuff
40:06
right there. I love it.
40:07
I'm. Sure it was.
40:08
Anyway, sorry Lincoln, did you have anything else to add with
40:11
the Patriots? No, we're, we're good.
40:12
I'm taking, I'm smashing the under.
40:14
I don't believe in Drake May also sophomore slump, but do it
40:18
for Diana, you know what I mean? Princess.
40:21
Exactly. Too soon.
40:24
I'm just laughing at the cold blizzy still, that's so funny.
40:29
All right, well, Lincoln can go on this, go first on this next
40:31
one. So the next team is the
40:32
Cincinnati Bengals, who have their win total set at 9 1/2.
40:36
So Lincoln, are you taking the over or under on the Bengals
40:38
winning 9 1/2 games this year? Can I go last on the Bengals?
40:43
I hate the Bengals so. You're taking the under.
40:46
I'm taking the under I, I just say you.
40:48
Went first, got him all right. Fine, you win.
40:57
I'm taking the under out of spite, out of rooting against
41:01
them actively. The sad part is is that I kind
41:04
of love Joe Burrow and I think Jamar Chase is incredible.
41:08
Again, I don't feel like they've done anything to improve their
41:10
defense. Like I said this last year on
41:13
the pod, it's like what have they done to improve their
41:15
defense and what did they finish last season 6 and 11 like I
41:20
don't know. So I.
41:21
Actually disagree with that. I actually disagree with that.
41:24
I think they have made significant moves to improve
41:26
their defense because on defense they have Miles Murphy, who had
41:31
five and a half sacks last season.
41:32
And I know that's not spectacular, but it's still
41:36
decent for, you know, he's not their number one pass rusher,
41:38
but they have Miles Murphy, they have Boy Mafia who was part of
41:41
the Seahawks defense last year. They drafted cash is how they
41:44
signed Jonathan Allen. They traded for Dexter Lawrence.
41:47
I feel like the defensive line is going to be much improved
41:49
this year for the Bengals with all the moves that they made.
41:51
It also means Shamar Stewart can now get 1 1/2 sacks as a
41:53
secondary pass rusher rather than as a starter.
41:56
It just feels like the Bengals defensive line should be able to
41:59
cause a lot more chaos than they've been able to do the past
42:02
few years. So I actually disagree that they
42:04
didn't get better on defense because I think their defensive
42:06
line did get significantly better.
42:08
I still have questions about their secondary, but I do think
42:12
that their defensive line got better than it has been the past
42:15
few years, so. I do think that their line has
42:18
gotten better. Can you name me one of the
42:19
linebackers? Yes, Demetrius Knight Junior.
42:22
Who's that he? Had over 100 times.
42:27
Logan Wilson. Oh wait, you got cut from
42:28
Dallas. Yep, shout out Logan Wilson went
42:31
to Wyoming. Demetrius Knight junior was
42:33
drafted by the Bengals last year and he had over 100 tackles last
42:37
season. All right, well, hopefully he
42:39
can. He'll have to have 100 tackles
42:41
again this season because nobody else can tackle on their team.
42:44
So we'll see. All right.
42:45
Avery, are you taking the over under on the Bengals?
42:48
I don't even know who the Bengals are anymore, honestly.
42:53
I, I feel like without Burrough, it's like their whole team is
42:55
kind of on pause. But I'm going to go with the
42:57
over. I'm going to assume
43:00
irresponsibly that Joe Burrough will play every game this
43:03
season. And I.
43:06
Put it on a spreadsheet. Put that on as much.
43:08
I might as well just just just start drunk driving right now.
43:11
That would be more responsible. I think that he plays every game
43:17
and I think they actually do very, very well this season.
43:21
I think they win like 11 games. Maybe 12.
43:23
Avery also had the Bengals winning the Super Bowl last
43:25
year. So.
43:27
There's that. Did I really?
43:29
You did. If Boro would have stayed alive,
43:34
if he wouldn't have died, I think, I think they, I think it
43:38
would have been more possible. So the very fortunate thing for
43:41
the Bengals is that 2 * a year they play the Browns and two
43:47
times a year this year they play the Steelers for each note,
43:51
We're good. OK, so 2 * a year they play the
43:55
Browns and two times a year this year they play the Steelers.
43:57
I mean, every year. But these years specifically,
43:59
they're just Steelers are not going to be as good.
44:01
And so that should be, in theory, 4 easy wins.
44:05
Now I do have them splitting each series because the yeah
44:08
they. Lose to the Browns in one game
44:10
every year. Yeah, yeah, I have them losing
44:13
at at Cleveland this year and I see them losing at home against
44:18
Pittsburgh just to piss Cincinnati off.
44:21
That's going to be one of those games that Aaron Rodgers has no
44:23
business winning, but he ends up throwing for like 450 and five
44:26
touchdowns. And then and then the Enders are
44:28
like, see how good he is. And then they go like eight wins
44:30
in the whole season and it's like, whatever.
44:32
But they have a stretch of they're at Cleveland, home
44:35
against KC, at Carolina, at Indianapolis and home against
44:38
Baltimore. That's week 13 through 17.
44:42
And they are, they are home against Cleveland to finish the
44:45
season. And so I think they're going to
44:46
lose 5 in a row. I think they finished nine and
44:48
eight. That is a winning record,
44:50
obviously. And so hitting the under on the
44:53
win total. But I don't like them at all.
44:56
They're not going to make the playoffs.
44:58
They're just pissing away Joe Joe Burrows best years or
45:01
pissing away Jamar Chase's best years.
45:03
They just Shamar Stewart shout out to you I guess.
45:07
I did not say if I'm going over under, but I kind of shared some
45:09
of my thoughts. But I'm going to take the over.
45:11
I'm going to give them ten wins and I'm going to have them in
45:14
the playoffs. All right, so our final two
45:17
teams here are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles
45:19
Rams and Lincoln, I'm going to let you choose which team goes
45:24
1st, and whichever team you choose, the fan or fans of that
45:28
team will go last. So let's go.
45:31
Who do you want to go with Lincoln?
45:34
Let's talk about let's finish with the team I'm the most hyped
45:39
with, so let's talk about the Bucks first, Will.
45:42
Do you want to go first or Lincoln?
45:43
You want to go first. Only hear will.
45:45
I have them in their first 123456789 games, going six and
45:51
three. Losing who?
45:52
At Cincinnati, game one, at Dallas, game five, and then at
45:57
Carolina, game seven. There, Oh, I lost every Oh no,
46:01
we're back cheaper. My computer's struggling.
46:03
I can go feed my hamsters. But they play in the NFC South
46:07
and that isn't easy. The easiest division of
46:09
football. If not, if it's not the easiest,
46:11
it's second TCS. I have 8 1/2 win total.
46:15
I have them hitting the over going to 11:00 and 6:00 this
46:18
year. I think their schedule is very
46:19
favorable to them. Also, they played the Saints
46:21
twice, they played the Falcons twice, and they played the
46:25
Carolina Panthers twice. Yeah, Carolina made the playoffs
46:27
last year, but I just don't dress them.
46:29
The sneaky game here. I actually have them beating the
46:32
Rams in Week 17 because that game's in Los Angeles or it's in
46:38
Tampa Bay. If that game were in Los
46:40
Angeles, I would have the the Rams winning my late season game
46:43
across the country. So I'm going to 11:00 and 6:00
46:45
this year, and that's more than enough to win the South.
46:49
More than enough. I them hitting the over as sad
46:52
as it is to see Mike Evans leave because you love to see a long
46:57
time Who's Mike player. He was a wider series.
47:01
Even heard of that guy but. Texas A&M had a bunch of
47:04
thousand 1000 yard seasons in a row.
47:06
I don't know, some guy I still love, Amika Egg Begbu.
47:11
He's one of my favorite players in the NFL, even though he let
47:15
me down last year in fantasy, though.
47:17
Did you give me a? 1000 yards.
47:18
He's trash we're talking about. He, I mean his name is Emika
47:22
Egbegbu, but that's still the best.
47:25
That was my fantasy team name by the way, and once I changed it
47:28
to that, then we started losing. I love Chris Godwin, I'm still a
47:32
believer in him and their defense.
47:34
I feel like got even better than it is last year.
47:36
I'm a Reuben Ban junior fan. I legitimately would have been
47:39
fine with the Chiefs drafting him.
47:40
Yeah, I love that guy. I love him so much.
47:42
He. Dropped, which is he's
47:44
incredible. He's going to wreck the league,
47:46
specifically the Rams. I.
47:48
Hope so, he's. Going to He's going to get arm
47:50
extension surgery and do good in the NFL.
47:53
He's just going to get stretched out and and blank, blank.
47:56
That's different, Guy Rushini. I was.
47:58
Never concerned about his short arms.
47:59
I don't know what you guys are talking about.
48:02
You and I didn't pull. No, there's no video.
48:04
Evidence of that ever happening. I I don't remember it.
48:09
So, yeah, you're probably right. I also like Jeremiah Trotter or
48:14
sorry, Josiah Trotter, Jeremiah Trotter's son, which is just
48:17
really fun to see that in the NFL.
48:20
Yeah. So I got them easy, soft
48:22
division, easy. Take the over on that one.
48:24
I think that's, that's one of the more diabolical actual
48:29
overunders at 8 1/2. I'm smashing that one.
48:33
All right, Avery, what do you think about the box?
48:36
They're not losing the game, what you talking about?
48:40
This is the time of year when every fan base thinks they're
48:42
going 17 and O, so I don't blame you.
48:45
Now, I, I agree with what Lincoln said at the end right
48:48
there, like, yeah, that 8 1/2 games is wild business and it
48:53
does because I there's a lot of organizations that you would be
48:57
an idiot to put faith into, but the odds makers in Vegas are not
49:03
one of them. I those guys are Nostradamuses.
49:07
I don't know what goes on in there.
49:10
It was long before AI and stuff. He just had like nerds and just
49:14
people that love making money and hate losing it.
49:18
And when they say 8 1/2, that really scared me, but I'm
49:21
delusional enough to say now they're winning.
49:24
They're winning my 1417 games 14 minimum.
49:32
Well, I agree that they're going to go over.
49:34
I don't agree that they're going to win 14 games, but I have them
49:36
winning 11 games because this is the Baker Mayfield Revenge tour.
49:41
They play the Browns, they play the Falcons twice with Kevin
49:44
Stefanski. They play the Panthers twice.
49:46
They also play the Rams, who I know he doesn't have bad blood
49:49
with the Rams, but he still used to play for the Rams.
49:52
So Baker Mayfield, he's going on a Rams legend.
49:55
Yes, absolutely. So he's going on winning.
49:58
The games, Yeah, yeah. So he's going on a revenge tour
50:01
this year and the Buccaneers are going to win 11 games.
50:05
The Buccaneers made a lot of changes this offseason,
50:07
specifically to their defense, which is something that they
50:10
made very clear. They wanted to focus on
50:12
improving the players they brought in, all bringing
50:14
attitude to this defense that not many players on the defense
50:17
had last year. I know everyone thinks this
50:19
Bucks team is going to be the same bad team it was last year
50:22
because the last thing they saw was a collapse, but I'll once
50:24
again remind everyone that the NFL changes every year.
50:27
Just because something was how it was last year, it doesn't
50:30
mean it's going to be how it is this year.
50:32
Unless you're the Browns or The Jets.
50:35
If the Bucks defense can just be like a top 15 defense, the
50:38
Buccaneers can win at least 10 games.
50:40
And the Buccaneers offense didn't lose a ton.
50:43
Yes they lost Mike Evans, but he didn't even play most of the
50:45
year anyway. They still have Chris Godwin,
50:48
they have Emeki Abuka so he should hopefully have less
50:51
responsibility on his shoulders this season.
50:53
That because they also have Jalen McMillan who's back after
50:55
not being healthy last year. They have Tez Johnson who is I
51:00
think he's going to take a step forward this year as well.
51:02
They also drafted Ted Hurst, who I think is going to be really
51:05
good for them as a rookie as well.
51:07
So hopefully this year they have less injuries.
51:10
Hopefully they're not playing with their third string guards
51:13
this year. Hopefully Baker Mayfield stays
51:15
healthy because he played with like 4 different injuries at the
51:18
same time for at least half the year last year that a lot of
51:21
people didn't know about. So he just wasn't healthy for a
51:23
lot of the year. I'm really hopeful for this
51:25
Bucks team and I'm excited that everyone is doubting the
51:28
Buccaneers right now because I think the Buccaneers are
51:30
actually going to be a lot better than most people think
51:32
they are. If it was an X Factor on every
51:35
single team in the NFLI mean trying to take quarterback out
51:39
of it. The only X Factor for the Bucks
51:42
is Baker Mayfield. If he has a season like he did
51:45
two years ago then they're going to be a 12/1 team easily.
51:49
If they're middle of the pack again, they're at least winning
51:53
nine games. So it's like, I don't know, this
51:55
is the easiest over of all of them so far.
51:58
Well. The thing that I love about
51:59
Baker Mayfield is even last year when he when the Buccaneers
52:03
were, you know, going down the tank, he was playing with
52:05
injuries and he wasn't playing the best.
52:07
But you could tell there's just something about the way that
52:10
Baker Mayfield plays. He's always going to keep his
52:13
team in the game. Like there was I think maybe
52:15
three games last year that the Buccaneers didn't have a chance
52:18
to win. Like the Buccaneers were in
52:20
every single game. They just didn't finish a lot of
52:23
the games at the end of the year because of whatever reason.
52:26
You can blame injuries or they're bad play calling,
52:28
whatever reason, but they were in almost every single game.
52:31
And Baker Mayfield is the reason that they were in almost every
52:34
single game. So I just love the way the Baker
52:36
Mayfield plays. They were just getting edged and
52:38
couldn't finish. I can't wait for that.
52:42
And I think 1 underrated piece that the the Buccaneers added
52:46
this year from Pittsburgh, Kenyon Junior, no Kenny Kangwell
52:50
on offense, He's he's going to be backing up Bucky Irving for
52:53
sure. But if you watch if you watch
52:56
the Steelers game game film last year, some of their biggest
52:58
highlights came from from Kerry Kangwell.
53:01
He was. Only highlights.
53:04
Well, DK Metcalf technically had more yards and touchdowns, but
53:07
like some of the biggest. Highlight was punching a fan in
53:10
the face. Yeah, sure.
53:12
Well, I I'm on the side of this is going to hot take here.
53:16
I'm on the side of DK Metcalf on that I.
53:18
Am too actually. Do that I your true blue hair
53:23
have an asteroid Wayne out of here chest.
53:25
Let the boys play all right. I think in the NBA this is I
53:29
digress. Here in the NBA those fans sit
53:31
too close to the players. They are full on rage and
53:34
testosterone. Do not interact with them.
53:37
You paid money to sit in that sea shore, but shut your all
53:40
darn mouth anyway. I think adding Kenneth Gangwell
53:44
to take pressure off of a Bucky Irving and B Baker Mayfield out
53:48
of the backfield. Kenneth Gangwell is a weapon.
53:50
He will catch the ball and make a play after play after play.
53:53
And so if their offensive line is having a rough game, which
53:57
happens to all of them, being able to flip a, a screen or a
54:00
swing pass out to to Kenneth Gangwell just to to relieve some
54:05
pressure. I think it's going to be an
54:06
underrated piece of the of the offense.
54:09
I given their their total offense, Baker Mayfield might
54:12
have a 5000 yard passing season this year.
54:15
They're going to be pass heavy. Oh yeah.
54:17
Whether it's receiver, tight end or running back.
54:20
If they'd gotten Kenyan Sadiq, that would have almost been not
54:23
fair. But how many offensive receiving
54:25
weapons he would have that? Was Avery's dream.
54:28
That was Avery's dream. Dude, it's going to be a bust.
54:33
Sorry, Avery. Kenyan Sadiq was a monster.
54:37
Monster still is. All right, let's talk about our
54:41
final team, the Los Angeles Rams, who have their win total
54:44
set at 11 1/2, which is the highest of any team.
54:48
So Avery, let's start with you. Are you taking the over or under
54:51
on the Rams winning 11 1/2 games this year?
54:54
I was going to do under, but I think I got them over.
54:57
I think they are going to deliver the goods.
55:00
I don't like saying it, but I think this is it.
55:02
Despite whatever the hell that draft was, for a team that's
55:07
looking to win now, that Yikes. I think Despite that, I think
55:13
they're going to do very well. Very well.
55:15
If we look at their schedule, this is a ridiculously tough
55:19
schedule. Starting out, San Fran, Giants,
55:24
you know, whatever. But then Denver, Philly,
55:26
Buffalo, that's a rough starting five.
55:30
You had a couple layups with Arizona and Las Vegas, then
55:34
Chargers Commanders or football team Arizona by, but then you
55:39
have Green Bay, KC, San Fran, Dallas, Seattle, Tampa, Dallas
55:45
or Seattle. Like that is crazy to finish the
55:49
season off. I'm sorry.
55:50
Well, I am super high on the Rams.
55:53
I'm rooting for the Rams this year.
55:54
I think Blake Quorum is going to be a massive sleeper pick in
55:59
fantasy this year. I think he's going to take over
56:01
for Chiron. I picked Blake Quorum two years
56:05
ago. Didn't do anything for me,
56:06
whatever. But I think this year's, the
56:08
year he breaks out, I'm taking the under.
56:10
I don't know what the actual strength of schedule ranking is,
56:14
but to my eyes, one of the hardest schedules in the league
56:17
this year. They're on prime time at a ton.
56:20
They didn't do much in the draft to actually help themselves out.
56:24
I respect that. They went out and got Mcduffie
56:27
and they got Jalen Watson. I still love Jared Verse.
56:30
Like there's so much that I love about the team.
56:32
I just can't take the over of 11 1/2 wins.
56:36
That said, I'm also smashing the under for the Ravens as a little
56:40
bonus take there just. To answer your question,
56:42
Lincoln, the Rams have the 13th hardest schedule this year.
56:45
Interesting. It looks so much harder.
56:48
Pause. It does.
56:49
Having the having the Cardinals and the Raiders, and they're
56:52
just like takes, yeah. That helps, helps.
56:54
It helps a lot. Yeah, Yeah.
56:57
So I'm going to go with the over at 12 wins.
57:00
And I do think that the Rams have a pretty difficult schedule
57:03
this year. But when I look at the Rams and
57:05
what they did this offseason, I think they got better.
57:08
I know a lot of people don't see that because they're too busy
57:11
complaining about the Ty Simpson pick, but the Rams look like a
57:13
better team than they were last year, specifically in the
57:16
secondary, which is what ended up costing them games last
57:19
season. There's really only two things I
57:21
see that could stop the Rams this year.
57:23
Injuries and Puka Nukua going full Antonio Brown mentally and
57:27
just going completely off the rails.
57:28
It seems like he's been trending that way, so hopefully that
57:32
doesn't happen. But outside of those two things,
57:34
it doesn't look like the Rams have any real weaknesses because
57:37
their biggest weakness from last year, they fixed it with their
57:40
original first round pick and then they plan for the future
57:43
with their extra first round pick.
57:44
So I think the Rams are still winning now, but they're also
57:49
planning for the future. So I actually don't hate what
57:51
the Rams did, no. I don't hate it either, I just
57:54
think that the drafts they they had hit on a lot of draft picks
57:58
the last three seasons since they said FM picks.
58:01
Sorry Dwayne. I would have liked to see them
58:04
actually just add help. And also I'm real scared about
58:08
Puka. I'm also a little bit nervous
58:10
about Devante and his health because he has been known to
58:15
miss games and he's another year older and he had a crazy season
58:19
last year on just red zone targets.
58:21
But so I'm just nervous of their ability to keep up the pace that
58:26
they had last year. I don't know well if you
58:28
disagree or have greater insights into their offense, but
58:31
would. You actually guess how many
58:32
tight ends the Rams currently have in their roster. 42.
58:37
I see four too many. 6. 4. On their depth, I think they.
58:42
Only have 4 on their depth chart list right now.
58:45
Yeah, and they have 8 tight ends listed.
58:49
See, I told you 42. 1234567 it's basically.
58:53
The same number. That's a lot.
58:55
That's a lot of targets. Let me tell you.
58:57
This is some serious, some serious hoping I'm here to use
59:01
an Internet term. I have the Remington in the over
59:03
by week 12, so there's that. I'm going.
59:08
To 11. 11-1 in their first. They have a bye week on week.
59:13
Week 11. I know, yeah, yeah.
59:15
The only game I have losing to start the season is in
59:17
Philadelphia, San Francisco and Australia.
59:20
Neither one of them are going to win that game.
59:22
They they're both going to lose it, but the Rams win anyway
59:25
because San Francisco sucks. So.
59:26
They're going to tie, no? Of course not.
59:28
That's gay, no? They'll lose, but they'll still
59:30
get the W. San Francisco and in the Giants
59:35
both. So Giants at home and they're in
59:38
Denver and I still don't think we're going to see a full force
59:41
bonus yet. Then they go to at Philadelphia,
59:44
that's going to be a problem. Home against Buffalo, home
59:47
against Arizona at Las Vegas, home against the Chargers, which
59:51
that's the same place anyway, at Washington, at Arizona.
59:55
The. Only game that scares me in all
59:57
of those combined is the at Philadelphia.
59:59
They're winning every single one of those games except for the in
1:00:02
Philadelphia game, which by week 4, Philadelphia might be an
1:00:05
absolute sham. Who knows what's going on over
1:00:07
there. Then they've got there by week
1:00:09
week 11. Then they come out of the by
1:00:11
week, home against Green Bay, home against Kansas City, home
1:00:15
against Green Bay right after the bye week.
1:00:16
That's a win. You coming out of the by, you
1:00:18
have to win that game. The what?
1:00:20
Home against Kansas City. The only reason I'm giving the
1:00:22
Rams win over KC because it's at home, not in Kansas City.
1:00:25
I did the same thing later on when they play at Tampa Bay
1:00:28
versus at home then they have at San Francisco, at Dallas, at
1:00:32
Seattle, excuse me, at San Francisco, home against Dallas,
1:00:34
at Seattle, at Tampa Bay. That is the worst four-game
1:00:38
stretch that they're going to have.
1:00:39
I've been losing all four of them.
1:00:41
They're going to lose in San Francisco, they're going to lose
1:00:43
Dallas, they're going to lose in Seattle, they're going to lose
1:00:45
in Tampa Bay. Then they're going to come back
1:00:47
home against Seattle and they're going to win that game.
1:00:49
Only 12 and five in the season. Well, it's got big balls.
1:00:52
Don't ever say he doesn't just. Ask your mom, Lincoln.
1:00:55
No, don't. No.
1:00:56
She might see this. I'm kidding.
1:00:58
I like Margie, but not like that.
1:01:01
I'm going to cut that part. Oh my goodness.
1:01:05
I'm very sure there's no way we can let Dwayne see that.
1:01:09
There's no way he's going to tell Margie can.
1:01:12
You just, Joel, can you just cut the part where he said it and
1:01:15
leave in the part where you said I'm going to cut that?
1:01:25
I'm telling Margie, holy friend. I've been on with this episode,
1:01:31
sorry everyone. So Lincoln, thank you for
1:01:36
joining us. Since you are our first three
1:01:38
time guest on the show and I know you've listened to every
1:01:40
episode of this podcast, would you like to do the sign up for
1:01:43
us today? I just want to give a bye now
1:01:47
y'all because that's my favorite part.
1:01:49
All right, well, as always guys, don't forget to keep your balls
1:01:51
played with. We'll see you next time.
1:01:54
Bye. Now y'all bye now y'all.
1:01:56
Also, Mark Davis's haircut still sucks.