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Anpanman -AST AND SAUDI TELECOM 10 YR AGMT!!! · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

0:07
This is the AST Space Mobile podcast and.
0:10
We just basically come your phone and be seamless.
0:14
But regardless of where you are, we don't want the user even to
0:16
know that it's connected by satellite.
0:21
Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
0:28
Holy shit, that's how I'm going to start this Phase I I'm
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surprised candidly that the stock is only up $4.00.
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This is absolutely game changing.
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I'm still digesting the news and I'm sure everyone else is Scott
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wasn't lying when you know, I, I had a brief conversation with
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him a few weeks ago. And this is after the, the
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Verizon news came out post to the eight $800 million ATM being
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put in place. And I think very specifically,
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he had mentioned that they want to condition the market to
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understand when they raise capital, it's for good reason
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and that you can expect good things to come.
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And wow, like it it just a few days after doing the billion
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dollar convert. And by the way, fundamental
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convert investors are going to be absolutely thrilled, right?
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They invested in this convert and then all of a sudden you
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have this this deluge of positive news since since since
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that convert happened obviously. And by the way, like we're going
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to get Morgan news just because of what was tweeted yesterday.
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I mentioned this in the Space Stocks Weekly, but AT&T
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yesterday visited Midland, TX and we know now due to protocol
1:54
that when strategic partner CEO show up at Midland, it's
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specifically to sign satellites before they go up in space.
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And so John Stanky is John Hancock is on BB7 and we are
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going to get a press release probably in the next probably
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later today or or tweet later today or Friday if they want to
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just extend the news. But there's going to be news
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that that Bluebird is shipping to Florida.
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So that's another thing to look forward to.
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This company is full of surprises, man.
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So let's talk about the news. I just hit the tape today.
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I didn't prepare for this. So I'm just going to talk and
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kind of read through this press release again and hopefully chat
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chief PT can help me out with some of these statistics.
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But yeah, this is game changing. I mean, not only did they sign
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Saudi Telecom, but it's to for a 10 year commercial agreement and
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they also have a long term revenue commitment and and
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there's prepaid revenue upfront. So I'm just sorry, I'm just kind
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of beside myself. So let's go back to what the
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company talked about before. I remember in my, one of my
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conversations with Scott, he said, hey, you know, will we
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sign these revenue prepayment agreements?
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You're going to see a step up over time because as we get
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closer to the constellation becoming reality and and
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obviously once it's deployed, the amount of economic rents you
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can extract from your partners will go up, right.
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And so we've seen that steady progression you saw in January
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18th. I and I keep a little sheet
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here. In January 18th, we got a $25
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million prepayment from Vodafone, a $20 million
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prepayment from AT&T and then four months later Verizon came
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up with a $65 million prepayment.
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And so you've seen that and I escalate and I'm going to put
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this out in the tweet eventually.
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But today, now you have Saudi Telecom who is the 4th
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definitive commercial agreement and they lop out, they they put
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out $175 million of prepayment. So you've seen those prevents go
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from 2025 million to then 65 Verizon now it's 175,000,000.
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And then you know, it's funny because the bears are like,
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well, I thought you were going to finance the company with
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prepayments and, and why do they need to convert capital?
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They're accelerating production and, and the and deploy it.
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And so they're taking any and all capital, right?
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And so this 175,000,000 for those that don't understand,
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it's non dilutive, it's, they're just Saudi Telecom is, is paying
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this upfront for future services.
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One of the interesting things, and you know, maybe the company
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is not going to be happy that I, that I tweeted it out.
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But I guess one of the positives of having a Bloomberg Terminal
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is that you get access to news from any security globally.
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And so there was a small headline that hit this morning.
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I have this news feed that watches specific news or
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specific tickers. And that headline came up for HD
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space mobile that these guys had signed an agreement without
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Saudi Telecom. So I went to Saudi Telecom,
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which is traded in the Saudi exchange and there was a release
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there which was it gave much more specifics.
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I guess maybe because of laws there they have to disclose more
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the particulars of a contract. And so I was able to pull down
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what they had disclosed publicly.
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And one of the crazy things in that disclosure, let's see here
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was a contract value and this is something that has never been
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disclosed by the company. But I guess because they are
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dealing with Saudi Telecom, they had to or on the Saudi side they
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had to disclose it. But they give you a bogey of
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what this contract value may be. And so specifically in one of
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the terms of the the release, it says the contract value may
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exceed 9% of Saudi Telecom's revenue as per the annual audit
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financial statements of the 20 year 2024 final value is not
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fixed and depends on volume of transactions where Saudi Telecom
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will receive a percentage of the revenues.
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And we know how that that works, whether it's a 50506040 or who
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knows type of split, I assume given the marquee nature of
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Saudi Telecom and how much prepayment they're giving, I
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assume they're going to get the best terms, which is 5050.
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But going back to this 9% of Saudi Telecom revenues, when you
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do the the the translation of currency for 2024 revenues for
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Saudi Telecom, they did approximately $20 billion of top
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line, so 20 billion, nine, 9% of that is $1.8 billion.
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So this contract at least out of the gate the way that both
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parties are buying it is around $1.8 billion and that's just for
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one MNO out of 50 that we're working with.
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So obviously not all 50 you're going to be worth that much, but
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it just kind of gives you a sense of the magnitude of these
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things, which is insane, right? And so just going through the
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special release, let's see here, this is for services in the
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Middle East and and North Africa.
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In the Saudi exchange, they actually give you more detail.
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So if he's based mobile, I believe this is how it will work
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is that Saudi Telecom does not have will not have exclusivity
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in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia because AST is also working with
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Zayn and Mobili. So they're they're basically
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working with the top three that own the entire market in Saudi
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Arabia. However, where Saudi Telecom
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operates in the middle in Middle East and North North Africa,
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these countries in particular, AST is giving them the exclusive
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rights, so Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Djibouti, Tunisia and
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Sudan. And so those are the, those are
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the exclusive countries. There's also, oh, I missed this
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because I was in the scramble. They also get preferential
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commercial terms in Kuwait, Oman, Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan,
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Iraq, Algeria, Morocco and Egypt.
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OK, you know what? I need to update and tweet.
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I, I undersold this. Oops, I didn't see that part.
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Where did I do this? Well, you know, I'll just put
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another. I'll just put another tweet
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here. Everyone, bear with me.
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Just tugging some of this stuff out.
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We'll get referential treatment, preferential 65.
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OK, let's see here. Preferential commercial terms.
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Oh, OK. Preferential commercial,
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commercial terms or it's other markets.
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I mean, some of these markets are massive, right, Like Egypt,
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Algeria, Yemen, Oman, Morocco, yeah, anyway, yeah, so, so this
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is massive. I mean, the Saudi telecom is the
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anchor MNO for the Middle East, for us.
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And I mean, what, what better partner could you ask for with
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deep pockets? Saudi Arabia, as we all know, is
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very forward-looking. They're trying to build their
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own space program and they're making tremendous on investment.
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So this is the country that you want to, you know, hitch onto.
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And so I think this is just, I mean this is just, you're just,
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I mean 10 on time to agreement that's worth $1.8 billion or
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more or less depending on how the how you know the service
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shakes out, but $175,000,000 prepayment and then all the
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benefits that go along with that.
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So obviously Saudi Arabia made an announcement to make billions
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of dollars of investments in the US.
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There's there's obviously economic connection between the
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two countries. And so I think this is the
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start. It's not the end.
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There's going to be more probably related to Saudi
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Arabia. I mean, obviously you've got
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Zane and Mobley who are the other two large curves, which
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it's a, it's a oligopoly of these three players.
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Like the once, you know, because of this agreement is out there,
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I'm sure the others are scrambling like, oh shit, we
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need to, we need to sign ours too.
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And the great thing about that is that there's a benchmark
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here, right? So in order to sign service
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there, they might have to pay, they might have to match 100
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city bag million or perhaps more.
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But that's the beauty of this model.
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It's like once the constellation is going up, it's it's like game
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theory, right? All the other M and OS will want
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service sooner rather than later.
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And then what are they willing to pay for it?
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And so those dynamics are really good.
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So let's see, let's go through the rest of this release.
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AC will integrate a space based cellular body community with
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Saudi Telecom's infrastructure, terrestrial infrastructure.
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Yeah, OK, just going through this under this agreement.
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Let's see. Oh, this is good.
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So the company will build 3 ground gateways in Saudi Arabia
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and establish a network operation center.
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So so yeah, Saudi, Saudi Telecom going first.
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They get these goodies that they are going to be the anchor M&O
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there. And so my guess is that that
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those ground gateways they will they will help support and
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perhaps there's some economic related to it.
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But then at those gateways, the other MN OS Zayn and Mobily will
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probably put will Co locate their base stations there or
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sorry, the Eno VS and then there you know, the connections to
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their core network. Let's see here.
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But yeah, the three grounds gateways in Saudi Arabia.
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That's good because as we all know from architecture
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standpoint for your customer sovereignty, you want the phone
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or device data to originate and also terminate in your home
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country. You don't want that data going
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outside, which is how Starlink operates.
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Starlink is a totally separate network from the M and OS and
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they, they pass around the data and then they eventually get it
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to your M&O. But it could be going off with
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other countries, it can be going to unfriendly countries, it can
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be tapped, who knows, right. So for M and OS, like in
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countries, data sovereignty is paramount and they want to own
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and, and see all that data. So that's really important.
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Let's see here. We're going to go through this.
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OK, Yeah, yeah, yeah. Sorry, I'm just reading the
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press release. I mean, this is, yeah, this is
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tremendous. It's funny because like, as I
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mentioned before, I, I, I got the headline on Bloomberg and
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then I was able to go to Saudi telecoms news feed and the Saudi
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exchange had published that that basically a term sheet.
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And so I was able to buy more stock and stock wasn't moving.
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Sometimes it's kind of funny like algos, they don't believe
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anything until it actually hits like business wire, PR wire
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here, which is the case. I know you know, the stock is
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up. Let's see here.
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I'm just reading the rest of this.
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So what's funny is that this is something this agreement has
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been many years in works. It's something that we as Space
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Mob have been speculating for many years.
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And of course, some purported experts will tell you that
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everything's priced in. No, it's not.
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It's not priced in. And often times when people
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learn about things before they happen through Space Mob, it's
13:59
through tedious amounts of due diligence and kind of connecting
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the docs as Ryan O'Connor would say.
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But it's not priced in. And obviously like some things
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may not come to fruition, but but this did.
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So went back to 2022-2023. You know, Bell attended
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conferences of the, the FII future Innovation conference in
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Saudi Arabia. And we know the management team
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was, was there as well from time to time, I guess over the last,
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the last handful of years. And we'd always speculated that
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this was going to come and and yeah, finally it did.
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And so you know, there there is additional due diligence around
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other MN OS which I think will come to fruition as well.
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But yeah, this is a great, as I was saying to some people, I
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mean this is absolutely game changing.
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I mean, this is a real validation.
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Every MNO agreement that is signed with revenue prepayments
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and the whole, all these, you know, bells and whistles.
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I mean it's just another validation of what the company's
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doing. Another important thing to
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remember is that Saudi Arabia has been testing with HT Space
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Mobile for the last year or so. We know this from it wasn't me,
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it was somebody else who was able to find the regulatory
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filing within Saudi Arabia which showed the map of Saudi Arabia
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in their testing. And so for Saudi Telecom to
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announce this 10 year agreement with revenue prepayment, it
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tells you that testing has gone well, scaling of the network has
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gone well with the five block 1 Bluebirds.
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Everything they see makes them think like OK, everything is as
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planned as as we discussed, we're signing this agreement.
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We want to be the marquee M&O in the Middle East and you know,
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and we want to accrue all those benefits.
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And so that's, that's one of the key takeaways from, from this
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agreement is that is again, it's another for the, for the
16:06
validation. If you, if you wanted validation
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about 2-3 weeks ago, Verizon signing their definitive
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commercial agreement. Now you've got another one 2-3
16:14
weeks later here, you're probably going to get another
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one in about a week or two is my guess.
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With all Canada, as we saw, I mean, gosh, there's so much news
16:23
out there as we saw Beware, which is IO.
16:26
It's actually a global IoT company which is tested in
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multiple countries around the world.
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But in particular, they, they use Bell Canada's network in
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Canada and they announced positive test results yesterday.
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Yeah. And so that's just another sign
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that Bell Canada, that definitive agreement is coming
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very soon. What the economic terms of that
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agreement might be, it's unclear.
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They were a they were an investor back in during ASD
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Space Mobile's IPO. And so my guess is that they are
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there probably will be some revenue prepayment attached to
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that because everybody who signed agreements has has made
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prepayments. So, so it'll be interesting to
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see what what they put forward. Let's see here.
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Yeah. So the Commercial Services are
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expected to launch in the fourth quarter of 2026.
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So that's good. And yeah, and this is this
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agreement covers 15 countries in the Middle East and North
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Africa. Now, what I can do here is I may
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try to ask ChatGPT. I mean, subscribers are in this.
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Well, actually, you know what, let's just ask.
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Let's see here, everyone, bear with me.
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So on the one hand, it's like you should look at the overall
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subscribers that Saudi Telecom has, which which I think is
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actually, let me just ask here, how many subscribers Saudi
18:10
Telecom wireless subscribers and then let's look at this
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disclosure. OK?
18:23
So for those who are wondering, Sally Telecom has 29,000,000
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subscribers. So that's a lot.
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But then let's see, let's see what the opportunity is for
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them, right? So how many wireless subscribers
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are in total are there in? So now I'm going to ask ChatGPT
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how many wireless subscribers are in their extended market.
18:53
So, so the thing about AST space mobile is that once you launch
18:58
service, it's, it becomes a game of taking other carrier
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subscribers. So that's really the Tam, right?
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So I'm going to, I'm going to ask Chachi BT how many total
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wireless subscribers are there in Libya?
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Oh, doesn't like that. Try that again in Libya, Syria,
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Lebanon, Djibouti, Tunisia, Sudan, Kuwait, Oman, Yemen,
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Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, Algeria, Morocco and Egypt.
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So let's see what that comes up with while we wait.
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Yeah, what a crazy day. I think.
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I think as I mentioned before at the beginning of this, this
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space, I think Scott is an absolute killer now.
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Like he knows we're going to raise funding and we're going to
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condition the market to understand that right after
19:51
funding, you're going to have positive events.
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And so they, you know, these funding events should be
19:58
positive things where they're raising capital to accelerate
20:04
the business and you should expect good things.
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And so now we've seen that twice in a row.
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And yeah, I think there's going to be more.
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Let's see ChatGPT is taking quite some time here.
20:19
Yeah, I guess while people wait, let's see what the real time
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short interest is. Let's see how screwed these guys
20:25
are. OK, interesting.
20:29
They, they, they got, they screwed themselves.
20:31
So as I mentioned before, the billion dollar convert, I think
20:36
the shares associated with hedging call it a 60% delta and
20:41
let's say 80% of the issue is placed with converts.
20:45
That's about 6,000,000 shares of additional short interest,
20:50
right? And so interestingly over the
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last three days, shorts have increased their positions by
20:57
two, 2.5 million, is that right? Yeah, 2.5 million.
21:00
So, so we hit a low of on October 23rd, 35.2 million
21:06
shares short and now that's increased to 37.9 million shares
21:10
as of yesterday. So these dip shits increase
21:15
their their shorts by two and a half million shares.
21:18
So they're probably not feeling too hot.
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And I think as I mentioned before, after hitting a peak of
21:27
49.5 million shares short kind of at the beginning of October
21:33
or actually, yeah, at the beginning of October, there's
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been roughly around 20 million shares that have that were, that
21:41
were short that were covered when taking account the net
21:44
additional shares that were short from the convert.
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So I guess some people have learned their lesson and
21:49
they've, they've covered, but I guess others have to be taught
21:53
about some. And I, I will give it a shout
21:54
out today to our, our wonderful friend, Pivotal Capital.
21:59
He's this I, I think he's a junior analyst that works at
22:01
some pod shop who's gotten run over multiple times.
22:05
He, he has the notoriety of calling bottoms for ASD.
22:09
So when he gets really beared up in tweets, that's a typical
22:13
bottom. And so as I've mentioned before,
22:16
like he's just a tremendous signal.
22:18
And maybe he's, I hope he's listening to this, but let me,
22:22
let me just go back while looking at this.
22:27
And by the way, like I'm a superstitious person and I try
22:30
not to celebrate and do touchdown dances, but on on days
22:34
like this, like you, everybody should celebrate.
22:37
And this is this is a tremendous milestone.
22:39
This is crazy, which is why I, I usually am not petty and small
22:44
and go after shorts, but recently have been because I
22:49
don't know, after many years of, of taking it, of listening to
22:52
them, you know, listening to that them just just give us a
22:58
hard time now it's now it's fun. So yeah, looking at Pivotal
23:02
Capital, I think it was like October 24th at 7:40 he tweeted
23:07
something bearish about AST and that happened to be let's just
23:11
look near the bottom again. When these guys like celebrate,
23:16
it's usually bottom. Well, OK, so the stock, it was
23:19
almost the bottom. It was at around $71.00.
23:21
So near term bottom and then, you know, and now we're at what
23:24
83 bucks So, so the guy just doesn't miss.
23:27
I'm going to help inflate his ego here a bit, but if you
23:32
haven't, you should follow pivotal capital.
23:34
It's pivotal under score capital.
23:36
He, he writes a lot of bad takes about AST space mobile and
23:39
whenever he gets pulled up, that's the time if you, if you
23:43
do trade around some small position, he's a great signal.
23:46
That's the time you should buy. And I, I kid you not, like he's
23:48
been the bottom signal for the last three pullbacks.
23:51
And every time he's said something negative, the stock
23:55
has been up like 3040%, ten percent, 15%.
23:59
So give him a fall. He he's, he's great.
24:02
Anyway, So yeah, just looking at wow, OK, these numbers are
24:06
pretty staggering. Let me see if they can add
24:09
these. So ChatGPT, let me see, can you
24:13
add these up? OK, the market just opened.
24:19
We'll see how the stock goes. So just to give you an idea,
24:23
Egypt has 106 million subscribers, Morocco 56,000,000,
24:27
Algeria 51, Iraq 46, Yemen 20, Syria 17, Tunisia 16.
24:34
And, and it goes on from there. But Saudi telecom represents 391
24:41
million subscribers in total. So that's across 15 countries.
24:44
And so that's bigger than the United States and you know, I'd
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say a good including Saudi Arabia, like a good portion of
24:54
these are, are pretty wealthy countries.
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And so sorry, that's 391 million subscribers across 15 countries
25:01
that are not Saudi Arabia. So that's the opportunity.
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And that's probably how Saudi Telecom is thinking about this,
25:09
that if we can incorporate this service, we can go take
25:12
subscribers from the other players in those markets.
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And so this is going to be very valuable for them.
25:18
But yeah, that's, I guess I'll tweet that out later, but that's
25:24
huge. And so I don't know if there's
25:28
much more to cover right now. Let me just see if people have
25:31
questions. OK, Phillip Wright, why use a
25:39
percent of Saudi telecoms annual revenue as a metric for 10 year
25:42
contract value? Could it be that I mentioned 9%
25:44
are annual basis? 1.8 billion would be wild.
25:47
Yeah. I'm not really sure why they put
25:50
that in there, but it's there. It's a public disclosure.
25:52
So the contract value maybe honestly, it could be that
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that's how much they think the contract could be, could
26:03
generate economically on a yearly basis, which isn't that
26:07
far off right, $1.8 billion. If you think about how many
26:11
subscribers they have and how much they could charge depending
26:16
on some penetration rate, then $1.8 billion a year annually is
26:20
actually not not that bad. Let's see.
26:25
Sorry for yelling, asking the source.
26:28
OK, so, but OK, it's 170 million people across 11 countries.
26:34
No, it's actually. So the total Tam across the
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total Tam across these other countries is 391 million.
26:43
But I'll make a post about it. Let's see here, do you know if
26:50
the first phase of Block 2 consolation aimed at main
26:53
markets will cover these markets too?
26:57
I think the Block 2 consolation of the initial satellites are
26:59
going to focus on the most powerful markets, which is kind
27:02
of anything as far north as the United States and Canada and
27:06
anything as far South as the upper part of South America I
27:10
think. But we know that the company
27:13
pull for a billion dollar convert to address additional
27:16
markets. And so my guess is that, and
27:19
maybe it's this Saudi telecom deal was part of that.
27:23
They are going, they want to get these satellites up quicker so
27:28
they can cover more markets and bring more M and OS into the
27:31
fold. But actually I've got to look at
27:33
the geographies and see if that makes sense. 9% revenue share
27:37
every year or over 10 years. I now that I think about it
27:41
more, it could be every year or it makes sense that there's
27:46
that's every year. Let's see someone saying that's
27:49
a big down payment for no exclusivity in home market.
27:51
That's true. It is a big down payment, but
27:54
then they do get exclusivity in some of these other markets, but
27:58
it was never going to be exclusive in Saudi Arabia
28:01
because the company has these MO us with the other two top
28:05
carriers. So, so that would be tough.
28:08
Let's see. There's some funny comments
28:15
here. OK, well that's it.
28:18
I don't know if anybody have any questions or wants to come up
28:22
happy to to talk. Otherwise I'm going to start
28:27
tweeting some of these statistics because it's pretty
28:29
staggering. But yeah, I today tremendous
28:33
news. It's probably going to take a
28:34
while for the market to digest. I will say funny enough that
28:39
some of these some of these paper paper handed research
28:41
analysts like UBS, Scotia, any a few of these guys, I'd expect
28:49
for them to put out updates. And this is going to be a
28:53
catalyst for for them to upgrade the stock.
28:55
Because obviously having another definitive crucial agreement
28:58
with commercial prepayments and then some economic terms around
29:01
it. That's going to give them new
29:05
food for thought to in terms of how they're viewing the stock.
29:08
And then potentially or most likely, my guess is having to
29:12
upgrade. And, and this goes for Barclays
29:13
as well, which did to double downgrade.
29:16
Maybe they'll have to do a double upgrade or, or maybe the
29:19
guy is stubborn and he'll just upgrade to neutral, but raises
29:22
price target. You know, at the end of the day,
29:24
as we all know, like who gives a shit?
29:26
All these research analysts are so far behind the curve, but
29:30
it'll be fun to see them upgrading stock, which I I
29:33
expect in the next day or two. But yeah, today it looks like
29:38
it's a little bit of a risk off day for growth stocks, which is
29:41
fine. I'm, I'm actually going to add
29:45
to my position now, now that this talk is pulled back a
29:47
little bit. But but yeah, good news
29:50
everyone. And we'll, we'll catch up again
29:52
soon. I'm going to kind of go through
29:54
this a bit more and tweet out more details.
29:56
But yeah, great day and we'll talk again probably in the next
30:01
day or two. All right, take care everyone.
30:04
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30:08
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30:23
next time. We're doing something very, very
30:29
big, and I think with this technology we can really affect
30:32
billion lives. AFT Space globally is the only
30:35
company that has proven technology to deliver cellular
30:39
broadband connectivity directly from space to the everyday
30:43
smartphone. People will just basically turn
30:45
their phone and be seamless, regardless of where you are.
30:48
We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by
30:51
satellite. Our role is to bring this into
30:55
reality, always in partnership with the MMO.