Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 260 - 4/18/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 260 - 4/18/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 260 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Friday. The work week is coming to an
0:39
end. The weekend is upon us and we
0:41
got a lot to get to to wrap up the week on a big pod.
0:43
Today I'm looking at a four pack of sweats that I'm excited to
0:47
share with you, including a play in one of the NBA playoff play
0:51
in games. Tonight we got the Heat and the
0:52
Hawks, The Mavericks and the Grizzlies.
0:54
Once again, I'm gonna go back to the well in terms of over
0:57
unders. I got a total that has caught my
0:59
eye with a really good rhythm system match, which is about a
1:02
three-point edge. So we'll see if we can get a
1:04
winner in the NBA playing tournament and then we're gonna
1:07
get right back to the diamond. Major League Baseball, a three
1:10
pack of plays overall, once again, gonna continue to ride
1:13
this favorite trend. I know it's chalky, I know it's
1:16
obvious, but favorites, if you've been paying attention,
1:18
have treated us pretty well this year.
1:20
And the proof is in the pudding. Favorites in Major League
1:22
Baseball are now 174 and one 1061.3% win rate, 2.3% ROI.
1:30
You'll be up 6.64 units just playing favorites.
1:33
And if I made this comment on Ariel Epstein's pod the other
1:37
day that I joined and I mentioned like, hey, if you just
1:39
blindly take favorites in any other sport, whether it's spread
1:42
favorites in football or you know, any other sport, usually
1:45
you're going to be way, way down because typically you're going
1:48
to see dogs perform better ATS and you're going to see at least
1:51
with the favorites if their money line hockey or baseball,
1:54
you're laying the juice. So you really got to win at such
1:56
a high rate that they really are never blindly profitable.
1:59
So that's one thing we've seen in baseball so far this year, a
2:02
chalky start to the year. Will it regress?
2:04
Maybe we shall see, but as of right now, I can continue to
2:08
ride some of these faves. I got a couple kind of -150 ish
2:11
faves and then a favorite that's a little bit shorter.
2:13
So we'll see if we can try to go 2 and one in Major League
2:15
Baseball. Now before we dive in our sweats
2:18
here for tonight, first thing we got to do is bust out the
2:21
brooms, baby. 3 and O + 2.3 units last night.
2:25
You love to see it. Chef's kiss.
2:27
We had the Rangers come through with a nice home win against the
2:31
Angels. The Yankees got it done at
2:33
Steinbrenner Field. They did it for for George, not
2:36
George Costanza, George Steinbrenner, but Yankees were
2:39
actually down 3 to one at one point.
2:40
Their bats came alive and they got it done.
2:42
And then also the Tigers with a good sharp steam move in their
2:45
favor. So nice little 3 and O + 2.3
2:48
units. It's always nice when you can
2:50
bust out the brooms. You leave the brooms in the
2:52
closet. You never ask or you know, hope
2:54
or expect a sweep, but you always continue to grind.
2:57
I think this is the importance of realistic expectations.
2:59
We got a three pack. What do we always say?
3:01
Let's go 3 and O and crush the books?
3:03
No, let's grind out a 2IN1 when we can grind out A2 in one
3:07
another winning night, whether it's .3 units, .5, hey, we'll
3:09
take it. But every now and again when
3:11
everything goes your way and you sweep and makes it that much
3:14
sweeter. So with that being said, as I
3:16
was talking a lot of baseball there, I want to start actually
3:19
with the NBA because there is a game here tonight that caught my
3:22
eye with a really good system edge in terms of rhythm.
3:25
So I'm going to look toward the late night game Dallas Mavericks
3:28
and the Memphis Grizzlies. Now this is the NBA play in W
3:32
8th seed a game. So the winner gets the eighth
3:34
seed, the loser goes home. Mavericks come in 39 and 43 on
3:38
the year, Grizzlies 48 and 34. Remember the Grizzlies lost to
3:43
Golden State 121 to 116 in the playing game a few days ago.
3:47
And then The Mavericks beat Sacramento 120 to one O 6.
3:50
They were helping us cash that over in that game the other
3:53
night. So in terms of the side, I got
3:55
no dog in the fight, but I did see a little bit of movement on
3:58
the Mavs plus 6 1/2 down to six. So that's definitely notable as
4:02
this line is dipped a little bit.
4:03
But what I'm going to focus on is this total and this total
4:06
jumped out to me. So the first thing I notice is
4:09
must admit, always respect the market.
4:11
There was a little bit of under money that showed up at the very
4:13
beginning because this Mavericks Grizzlies total it open around
4:16
222 1/2. Now it's down to 221 1/2 or even
4:20
221. So fully admit as soon as that
4:23
222 1/2 opened, you had some respect to money hit that under
4:26
'cause that line to drop. However, this is a mini buy law
4:30
opportunity. Remember that game Sacramento
4:32
and and Dallas from the other night how it fell a ton and we
4:35
bought low and played the over? Well, I'm going to kind of do
4:37
the same thing here. It's not quite as precipitous as
4:40
a drop. You know it has dropped about,
4:42
you know, 1 or 1 1/2 points, but a couple reasons like this over.
4:45
So First off, shop for the best line.
4:48
A lot of books are at 221 1/2, but I did find a 221 at Caesar's
4:53
over 221. So as always, try to get the
4:55
best price, get the best number. But here are some reasons to
4:58
like the over in this one. Now #1 let's look at the
5:02
analytics and how these teams match up.
5:04
Memphis is number one in the NBA in terms of pace.
5:07
They're very quick. They get up and down the court,
5:09
more possessions, more opportunities to score.
5:11
Dallas, they're #14 in pace, nothing crazy, but they are top
5:15
half. Dallas not great defensively.
5:18
Maybe they're a little better with Anthony Davis at making
5:20
that trade late in the year with Luca, but they are 21st in
5:23
defensive efficiency. Then we get to offensive
5:26
efficiency. Both teams are pretty good.
5:28
Memphis is number six and Dallas is #14 so both top half tempo,
5:34
top half offense. Dallas not great defensively.
5:37
Both teams are pretty good over teams.
5:40
Memphis was 46 and 36 to the over this year, 56% that's the
5:44
8th best over team in the NBA. Dallas, by the way, 45 and 37 to
5:49
the over. 55%, the 12th best over team in the NBA.
5:53
And in particular, this came through the other night.
5:54
I'm hoping it continues tonight, but when Dallas is on the road,
5:58
they're really good over team. They're 27 and 15 to the over on
6:01
the road, 64%. That was the number two NBA Rd.
6:05
team to the over. Now, if that weren't enough, we
6:09
do have some other factors that are notable to me.
6:11
One, it's a, is a, it's a relatively short spread.
6:14
So it's about 6 1/2 points down to six.
6:17
I also like the fact that this line is moving a bit toward the
6:19
dog because maybe you get a more competitive game back and forth
6:22
and you get some scoring. These teams are rested.
6:25
If you remember, the Grizzlies last played on Tuesday and you
6:30
had The Mavericks play on Wednesday.
6:32
So you've had, you know, at least one or two days off or
6:34
even 3 for both these teams. Now I'm thinking maybe a reason
6:37
why you saw this total dip a bit is John Morant is questionable.
6:40
I think he had something with his ankle in that playing
6:43
playing game against Golden State.
6:45
But I saw an A report on Twitter where, quote UN quote, they're
6:49
optimistic he's going to play. So is this one of those things
6:52
where, you know, he's questionable?
6:54
Maybe the line dips and then he gets upgraded A probable and you
6:57
see it rise back up toward 222. That is the goal.
7:00
That's kind of what I'm thinking now.
7:02
If all that, you know, was built building a case toward the over,
7:05
here's what really sent me to the over our friends at rhythm,
7:09
because rhythm fantastic powering job powering this pod
7:12
and giving us these AI backed models and predictions.
7:16
But I have three models on this game.
7:18
I have a pre built model, a Josh model, and then a third model,
7:21
and all three models are in green.
7:23
So if you are, you know, used to the using the rhythm map,
7:27
whether it's a pre built model or your own model, you're going
7:30
to see the recommendations either with like a caution flag
7:32
or a green * green star means we recommend this.
7:35
We're pretty confident in this bet.
7:38
The other thing I look at is, you know, are they conflicting?
7:40
Like if you're looking at a total or two on the over and one
7:42
on the under or vice versa. When I looked at this, my, my
7:46
rhythm system matches for this total number one, they were all
7:50
on the over #2 they were all in green.
7:53
So that got me excited. And here are the predicted
7:56
totals for my 3 rhythm models for this game.
7:58
Remember, you can get it over 221 at Caesars.
8:01
One model is 223.5223 point 4 and 223.6.
8:07
So they're all very close, but they're basically predicting
8:10
between 2:23 and 2:24. So if they're all on the same
8:14
side pointing over, if they're all in the green and we can buy
8:17
low and get over 221, you know, we're looking at about a, you
8:21
know, 2-3 point edge there toward the over.
8:24
Didn't hurt though when I looked at the head to head matchups
8:27
this year. These teams have played each
8:28
other four times. Let me give you the the final
8:31
combined points for all the games, 230-7223, 230-3229.
8:37
That's an average of 230.5 S fully admit.
8:42
If you tell me you like this under, I'll say yeah, you're
8:44
with the line move. It did drop, but do we see it go
8:47
back up if John Rank gets upgraded to probable, it is a
8:49
playoff game, so I would think that he'd got it out even if
8:52
he's a little banged up. But when I see all of my rhythm
8:55
models pointing in One Direction and all in green recommended
8:58
plays, I got to give it a shot here.
9:00
So we got a short spread rested. We got 3 green system matches,
9:04
all pointing to the over head to heads of all gone over an
9:07
average of 230.5. We got two over teams.
9:10
We got 2 fast pace and we have two good offenses and maybe 1
9:14
questionable defense. Add it all up guys, I'm going to
9:16
take a shot here on the Mavs Grizzlies over again.
9:19
You got to shop around, find that over 221 currently
9:23
available at Caesar's. So let's get some points in
9:26
Memphis. Now over to some Major League
9:28
Baseball, as we love grinding MLB on a daily basis.
9:31
We are fully in the routine of waking up and sweating baseball,
9:35
which I love anyway. First game I want to go to seven
9:38
O 5:00 PM Eastern Time. First pitch, Yankees and Tampa
9:41
Bay, the Rays and the Yanks right back at Steinbrenner
9:43
Field, seven O 5, first pitch. Let's set the stage.
9:47
I'll give you my play for this one.
9:48
So Yankees are 12:00 and 7:00 on the year.
9:50
They got a big win for us last night.
9:52
They won the series opener against the Rays six to three as
9:55
a -, 1 O five row dog. And the rematch for tonight,
9:58
Yankees are going to go with the lefty Carlos Rodon.
10:00
He's one and three with a 5.48 ERA.
10:04
The Rays, meanwhile, who are 8 and 11, they're going to turn to
10:06
ready Drew Rasmussen. He's one and O 0.6 O ERA.
10:10
So what have you seen across the market here?
10:12
Well, this game open at basically a pick em around -110
10:16
both sides. And it's always notable to me,
10:18
might have heard me say this before, but you open out a pick,
10:21
you know, where does that line move?
10:22
Because maybe the sharps who SAP set their own numbers and look
10:26
for discrepancies. Maybe they have a pick to, you
10:28
know, both of them are, are a pick them.
10:29
So there's no need to hit it. But chances are they probably
10:32
have one team favorite over the other.
10:34
So it's always notable to me when you open out a pick them,
10:36
which direction does the line move?
10:38
Well, in this case, the line move to the Yankees.
10:40
I'm going right back to the well, even though I'm a Sox fan,
10:43
I'm a big Yankees fan tonight, but Yankees have gone from -110
10:47
up to -120. I was able to get Yankees -116
10:51
at FanDuel. Most books are closer to -120 at
10:54
this point. But I like the bet split on the
10:56
Yankees. They're getting 72% of money
10:59
line bets, but 99% of money line dollars at Circa.
11:03
So out in the desert, you got a big load of heavy smart money
11:07
here hitting New York, causing that line move.
11:08
A lot of system matches on the Yankees, as I mentioned,
11:11
favorites this year, 61%, 2.3% ROI.
11:15
Then we can layer in favorites who made the playoffs the
11:17
previous year, they're 92 and 5164% with a 5% ROI.
11:22
Favorites with a line move in their direction, 119 and 6565
11:27
percent, 7% ROI. So all those systems are
11:30
lighting up on New York. It's also notable to that like,
11:33
you know, Rasmussen has a great ERA, he's been better than
11:36
Rhodon, yet the lines not going to the guy with a good ERA, it's
11:39
going toward Rhodon. Maybe a part of that is just the
11:42
offense of the Yankees hopefully getting to Rasmussen.
11:45
New York has the edge of the plate.
11:47
They've hit 34 homers, scored 113 runs.
11:50
Rays have only hit 20 homers and scored 84 runs.
11:54
Also the Yankees, they're hitting 254 against righties.
11:56
That's the second or sorry, 7th best in Major League Baseball.
12:00
And Yankees do have the better bullpen. 3.13 ERA versus 3.47
12:05
did see some under liability. 8 1/2 it is juiced to the under
12:09
-115 the wind is blowing in eight to 10 mph from right
12:12
center. This wouldn't technically be a
12:14
favorite low total because low totally got to be 8, but I do
12:17
like the fact this line is going toward the favorite and the
12:20
total is juice toward the under. Long story short, good sharp
12:24
line move, good bet splits, better bats, system matches.
12:27
And lastly, our friends at Juice Reel have a 13% sharp mush edge
12:32
on the Yankees. So 13% more of the sharper
12:35
winning betters are playing the Yankees as opposed to the more
12:38
profit deficient betters who are leaning more toward Tampa Bay.
12:41
So the Yankees had a big win for us yesterday going right back to
12:44
the well, let's see if the Yankees can get another win
12:46
tonight. I got New York at -116 next one
12:51
for you. Let's go down to Texas, not the
12:53
Rangers game, let's go to San Diego, Houston.
12:57
We got the Padres and the Astros. 8:10 PM Eastern Time,
13:00
first pitch, let's set the stage.
13:02
Talk line movement and I'll give you my play here.
13:04
It is a very, very fishy sharp line move.
13:07
So first game of a three-game interleague set.
13:09
We have the Padres coming in. Incredible record 15 and four.
13:13
Just took two or three against the Cubbies.
13:15
They won that series finale 4 to 2 as a -, 115 home favorite.
13:19
You know all the Stroh's 8 and 10 on the year.
13:21
They did just drop two or three against the Cardinals.
13:23
They lost the series finale 4 to 1 as a -, 110 Rd. pick em.
13:28
So pitching match up here we have San Diego going with the
13:31
lefty Kyle Hart. He's 2 and O with a 5.4 O ERA.
13:35
Meanwhile, Houston is going to send out the Rady Ryan Gusto.
13:38
He's one and one with an ERA of three.
13:39
So what are we seeing across the board here?
13:42
Well, this game open Astros around a -, 125 home favorite,
13:46
San Diego around a + 110 Rd. dog.
13:48
And the first thing that the public says is the wrong team is
13:51
favored because San Diego's got this incredible win loss record,
13:55
you know, 15 and 4. Houston's below 500, yet you're
13:59
giving me plus 110 on a really good team, San Diego.
14:02
You know why is Houston opening as a favorite?
14:04
Public is saying give me San Diego.
14:06
I get it, good team plus money. They're getting nearly 2/3 of
14:10
bets at DraftKings. But even though the public is
14:13
pounding San Diego, the line is not falling toward a pick em.
14:16
The line is shot up crazy high in favor of Houston, where we've
14:20
seen Houston go from -125 now all the way up to -150.
14:25
Some shops are even closer to like -155 so this looks like a
14:28
razor sharp line move here in favor of Houston.
14:32
They're only getting, you know, 1/3 of bats, but big fade the
14:35
trendy dog steam RLM in their favor.
14:38
If we look at system matches here, we got a ton lighting up
14:41
on Houston favorites off a loss. 77 and 3966 percent, 12% ROI
14:47
interleague home favorites. 39 and 1967 percent, 14% ROI.
14:52
Interleague, home favorites who made the playoffs the previous
14:55
year, 19 and 7, 73 percent, 23% ROI.
15:00
Another one here that I love. If you remember this one, if
15:03
you're with me last year, this is when we hit a lot.
15:06
But when both teams are coming off a day off, take the
15:09
favorite. So both teams were off
15:10
yesterday, played the favorite. That system is 26 and 681
15:14
percent, 35% ROI. So it's all lighting up on
15:17
Houston. Houston, by the way, they're
15:19
really weird. They just they win, they lose,
15:21
they win, they lose, they win, they lose their just back and
15:23
forth but they are 7 and 2 after a loss this year.
15:27
They just have that crazy fishy buy low value as an unpopular
15:31
sub 500 favorite against a very popular sell high plus money dog
15:36
on the road with a winning record.
15:38
The other angle here that I love is the fact that we have a 17%
15:42
sharp mush edge in favor of Houston.
15:44
So 17% more of the sharper winning betters in the Juice
15:47
Reel app are playing the Strohs, which is good to see.
15:51
So I bet Houston a little bit earlier today, I put it in the
15:53
Juice Reel app at -145 that was a bet MGM.
15:57
Bet MGM is now around -150 I think that's the best price.
16:00
A lot of other books are closer to like -155 But again, looks
16:05
gross. I would call this the old
16:06
Michael Lombardi hazmat play because it's so gross you need a
16:09
hazmat suit to touch it. But man, Houston looks sharp.
16:12
I got to play the Strokes tonight.
16:14
Last bit of the night, 9:38 PM Eastern Time.
16:17
Let's look at another interleague match up here, the G
16:19
men at the LA Angels. So first game with three-game
16:24
interleague set. We got the Giants coming in 13
16:26
and six. They just split A4 game series
16:29
against the Phills. They lost the series finale
16:31
yesterday though, six to four as a + 170 Rd. dog.
16:34
Meanwhile the Angels 9:00 and 9:00 on the year just got swept
16:37
by the Rangers, which was good for us as we played the Rangers
16:40
a couple times that in that series.
16:42
Lost that finale 5:00 to 3:00 last night as a + 135 Rd. dog.
16:47
So pitching match up here for tonight, we got the G men going
16:50
with Logan Webb there ace righty 2 and O 2.63 ERA.
16:54
The Angels, by the way, are going to go with the lefty Tyler
16:57
Anderson one and O 2.87 ERA. So what are you seeing across
17:00
the market here? Well, the G men open around a -,
17:03
140 -, 145 Rd. favorite and sharps are laying the chalk with
17:08
the G men. Giants have been steamed up now
17:11
to around -155 some shops even closer to -160 at Circa G Men
17:17
have a really good bet split. Only half the tickets, but
17:20
nearly 70% of the money out in Vegas is on the Giants.
17:23
So a nice low bets, higher dollar sharp split.
17:26
A lot of systems on here on San Francisco as well.
17:29
Favorites off a loss, 66 percent, 12% ROI.
17:33
Giants, by the way, four and one after a loss this year, 80%.
17:37
Both teams coming off a loss. The favorite is 17 and 771% with
17:42
a 14% ROI. And then lastly, if you're a
17:45
favorite -150 or more, those teams are 79 and 3470 percent,
17:50
8% ROI. San Francisco has that classic
17:53
interleague, interleague favorite value, lack of
17:56
familiarity, benefiting quote UN quote the better team and also
17:59
have a favorite low total correlative betting system match
18:02
because this total is 8. Some shops are juicing a little
18:04
bit toward the under, but few amount of expected run scored.
18:07
Again, more likely to come from quote UN quote, the better team
18:11
was favored that day. Lastly, one thing I'll bank on
18:14
San Francisco's bullpen, knock on wood, but they have the
18:16
second best bullpen in baseball, 1.89 ERA.
18:20
The Angels, by the way, 5.91 ERA, that's the second worst in
18:24
Major League Baseball. So if you give me Logan Webb
18:27
guy, I'd love to sweat here. In the last few seasons on the
18:32
road, tons of system matches. The G men, I don't know what it
18:35
is about them. They they they rake Giants on
18:38
the year. They keep cashing these overs.
18:40
They're 14 and five to the over, but a lot of system matches,
18:43
good steam, good bet splits, better bullpen.
18:46
I'm going to back Webb and the giants tonight.
18:48
So shop around. I got the G men -154 at FanDuel.
18:53
So Yankees, Houston, San Francisco, can we get 2 out of
18:56
three and hopefully eke out a winning night?
18:59
That is the goal. So that about does it for
19:01
episode 260 of the All systems go sports Betting podcast
19:05
powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod, of
19:07
course, where we wrap things up. And I start first by saying
19:10
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
19:12
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
19:15
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns
19:18
with me. If you do enjoy this pod, maybe
19:20
it's become part of your sports betting routine.
19:23
Maybe you, you know, kind of crunch your own numbers and come
19:25
to the pod and armed with, you know, notebook and you're seeing
19:29
might where where we might overlap or disagree.
19:31
Or maybe you are a working class person and you have no time to
19:34
cap the games and you listen and TuneIn or maybe a tail every
19:37
bet, maybe a fade every bet. Either way, I do appreciate so
19:41
much you guys listening to the pod.
19:43
If you enjoy the pod, could you please do me a solid give it a
19:46
five star review if you're listening on Spotify or iTunes
19:50
would go a long way to helping us grow the pod.
19:51
If you want to neat leave a nice comment in the review section.
19:55
That would be great as well. If you want to click the follow
19:57
button. That way you get alerted as soon
19:59
as it drops each day. That would be great if you want
20:01
to recommend it to a friend. Word of mouth is always the best
20:05
way to to turn someone on to something.
20:07
Next, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
20:12
sharp contrary embedding, looking at the lines, looking at
20:15
the numbers, betting based on numbers and data and value, not
20:18
based on, you know, gut instinct and bias.
20:20
If this style of betting has appealed to you and you want to
20:23
learn more about data-driven betting or you have a person in
20:26
your life who is in a newly legalized state or bets a lot
20:29
and doesn't win too much, you know what you should do.
20:32
You should go to Amazon.com and type in the everything guide to
20:36
sports betting. That's my baby, my book, first
20:38
one I ever wrote. Let's get everything I've
20:40
learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
20:43
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
20:45
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
20:48
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
20:51
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
20:53
Betting. So if you want to grab 1, you
20:55
would make my day. While you're at it, while you
20:58
while you are picking up the Everything Guide to Sports
21:00
betting, you should stay on Amazon.com and then type in the
21:04
NFL Sharp Betting playbook. That's my new baby.
21:07
My new book comes out August 12th, specifically how to bet
21:11
the NFL from a data-driven perspective.
21:13
I cannot wait for you guys to read it.
21:15
I'm actually today's actually the deadline.
21:17
I got to send in my edits before the book goes to the printing
21:19
press. So we are we are getting very,
21:22
very close to the to to having it all go down.
21:25
But if you want to pick up a copy, a pre-order copy of the
21:28
NFL sharp betting playbook, you would also make my day.
21:31
So bring the everything guide to sports betting in the NFL sharp
21:33
betting playbook to the sports book.
21:36
I'll sign them for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale or
21:39
we'll get some nachos and sweat some games together next.
21:42
If you haven't done it yet, what are you waiting for?
21:44
Go download rhythm and Juice reel, my two favorite sports
21:47
betting apps Rhythm fantastic for their AI backed models and
21:51
predictions for game bets and player props spread money line
21:54
total, especially with NBA playoffs right now getting these
21:57
system matches and I don't talk a ton of MLB player props, but I
22:01
know they're popular and rhythm has, you know, recommendations
22:04
for you for for all the different games.
22:07
And then of course juice reel where you can show me some some
22:10
love. If you enjoy the pod, it's free.
22:12
It cost you nothing to listen to this pod, but you know what you
22:14
should do? You should tip your podcast host
22:17
and my tip jar is basically signing up for the $4.99 a week
22:22
plays on juice reel, which you will get all the plays full
22:25
week. I, I make bets every single day,
22:28
but if you, if you want to sign up for those, I would very much
22:30
appreciate that. You're also going to get with
22:32
juice reel, the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the AI back
22:36
model plays that come out every day at noon, the arbitrage
22:39
plays, the sharp mush indicators, shop for the best
22:42
line future prices, sync up your sports books, have a report card
22:46
for your action. And if you, if you are proud of
22:48
who you are is the better and you think other people might
22:51
want to follow your plays, you could then post your place and
22:53
charge whatever you want for them, $1.99, four, 99999.
22:58
And I'm talking like 10 bucks or less.
23:00
But that is available to you as well, which is a really cool
23:02
feature of Juice Reel. So download rhythm, download
23:05
Juice reel and give them a five star review in the App Store.
23:09
Next, if you're betting on sports, you got to have data.
23:13
And where do you get your data? You got to start with a live
23:15
odds page. It's also called the board, the
23:17
screen. There's a lot of different ways
23:19
to to talk about it. But the live odds page, to me,
23:21
it's one of the most important parts of being a data-driven
23:24
better because you got to know number one, what are all the
23:26
games being played today on across all the different sports?
23:29
What are the start times? You know, what are the lines
23:31
open at? You'll have an opening column
23:32
that never changes. You get all the current numbers
23:34
across all the different sports books.
23:37
Odd Logic is the the the live odds page that I love the most.
23:40
They give you Pinnacle. They give you Circa along with
23:42
all the other major books. So you can see where the market
23:45
setters move first. You can also get line history.
23:47
You can shop for the best line, get the best number.
23:50
Like for example, I was looking at that Mavs Grizzlies game and
23:53
I saw Caesar's had a 221. Everyone else was 221 1/2.
23:56
Boom, the live odds page just helped me get an extra half
23:59
point of equity. So if you haven't done it yet
24:01
and you want to give Odds Logic a shot, all you got to do is go
24:04
to the specific link, Odds logic.com/josh 123.
24:10
That's Odds logic.com/josh 123 set about does it for today's
24:16
pod on a big Friday. As we steam into the weekend, I
24:19
want to wish everyone a Happy Easter.
24:21
If you celebrated Passover like me last weekend, happy Passover,
24:25
but hopefully we'll have a nice, nice spring weekend here ahead
24:28
of us. But as always, guys, I'm going
24:30
to leave you with a couple things.
24:31
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
24:35
River in Rhode Island, the brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
24:37
Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain
24:41
Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield or the Nash up in
24:44
Nashville, New Hampshire, in my neck of the woods.
24:46
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
24:49
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the
24:51
lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
24:54
Or sweat and Sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
24:56
swimming pool when they cash a big ticket at Circa.
24:59
You're going to walk up to me and we're just, we're going to,
25:02
we're going to knock on the janitors closet and bust out a
25:04
broom because we had a nice night last night. 3 and L + 2.3
25:07
units. You're going to show me a
25:08
Rangers ticket, a Yankees ticket and a Tigers ticket.
25:11
First one's on me, next one's on you.
25:13
We'll post about the book. Sweat Sharp contrarian plays all
25:16
night long. So wish you the best of luck
25:18
everybody. Remember, as always, 3 and OO
25:20
and three two and one one and two the previous night.
25:23
Yeah, we had a great night last night.
25:25
We can't wait to hopefully have another winning night tonight,
25:27
but you could just as easily have a terrible night last night
25:30
and try to bounce back the next day.
25:31
Never get too high when you're riding high, never get too low
25:34
when you're struggling. We're always even keeled,
25:36
sticking in the model, sticking to the blueprint, and you guys
25:39
know by now that blueprint is betting games with our head and
25:42
not our heart. Against the public, with the
25:43
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
25:48
line value. If we can do that long term, and
25:50
I'm pretty confident that we can then guess what we're going to
25:52
be successful sports bettors. So have a great Friday night
25:56
everybody. Have an even better weekend.
25:58
I will see you back on Monday and that'll be episode 261 of
26:02
the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
26:06
Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
26:08
great Friday and an even better weekend.