Latest / Best of Business / Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson on the possibility of more Trump tariffs

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Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson on the possibility of more Trump tariffs · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk Z'B follow
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  Speaker 2: Shane Solely from Harbor Asset Management is with me. Shane.
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  Speaker 2: Good evening. We're going to look at the markets, Shane.
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  Speaker 2: But first Trump and the tariffs. We don't have the
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  Speaker 2: details yet, but we've got an outline of some steel
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  Speaker 2: and aluminium tariffs from the White House.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, he's back riling up market. It's getting us excited.
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  Speaker 3: So over the weekend he's had dropped a few interesting announcements.
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  Speaker 3: He's talking about more reciprocable tariffs against people that pushed
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  Speaker 3: back and who's tariffs he's announced going announced apparently tomorrow
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  Speaker 3: twenty five percent tariff on steel and aluminum. And he's
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  Speaker 3: also talking about having other cracad Our friends in Canada
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  Speaker 3: and potentially a Mexico. So that's got people a little
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  Speaker 3: bit excited.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, how the market's reacting here.
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  Speaker 3: Look, US market was a bit soft on Friday night.
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  Speaker 3: There was some strong data that suggested the US Fitter
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  Speaker 3: Reserve is not going to be cutting rates in a hurry,
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  Speaker 3: but there was a little bit of an anticipation of
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  Speaker 3: these reciprocal tariffs, so we did see the US long
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  Speaker 3: term bond years up, the US dollar up, and the
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  Speaker 3: US shear market down. So locally though, today you know
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  Speaker 3: what we've seen is the US dollar New Zealand dollar
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  Speaker 3: cross rate to fifty six and a half cents. Aluminium.
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  Speaker 3: You know, we do explod a little bit of aliminium
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  Speaker 3: to the States, about two percent of New Zealand's exports,
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  Speaker 3: so not a big ee, but you know there is
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  Speaker 3: potential that that global ramifications disrupt and our market here
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  Speaker 3: in New Zealand slightly down today Official and Pipal again
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  Speaker 3: leading things down a little bit. It is fifteen percent
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  Speaker 3: of the market. Plat more more than fifteen percent. It
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  Speaker 3: was down zero point four percent on the basis that
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  Speaker 3: these Mexican tariffs are back on the list of things
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  Speaker 3: to talk about.
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  Speaker 2: Certainly sounds like it, doesn't it. We know retail set
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  Speaker 2: a hard time, but JB High five just reported a
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  Speaker 2: very strong performance.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, interesting one, right, and so there you came out
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  Speaker 3: and they were their numbers for this particularly for January,
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  Speaker 3: this saying their sales growth is up twenty percent for January,
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  Speaker 3: which is ten percent higher than expected. Uh and I
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  Speaker 3: think this is of people trying to say this is
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  Speaker 3: an indication the New Zealand economy is showing a sign
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  Speaker 3: of bottoming. And we saw companies like Fletcher Building and
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  Speaker 3: Spark New Zealand, which is the old telecom Newson, have
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  Speaker 3: a little bit of a pop on the back of
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  Speaker 3: that that people thought New Zealand is bouncing. The question
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  Speaker 3: we'd raise is, you know, is it New Zealand consumers
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  Speaker 3: spending more or is it JB high fight just taking
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  Speaker 3: share off other retailers. You know, technology is sort of
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  Speaker 3: thing people want to put their marginal money into. So
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  Speaker 3: it's a tough one to make a collter stage.
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  Speaker 2: Plus, they had some great sales over summer. Did hey
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  Speaker 2: the bean Zed Economics team was out today calling for
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  Speaker 2: the rbn Z to cut the official cash rate half
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  Speaker 2: percent next week. How does that compare with what the
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  Speaker 2: market is pricing in.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, look really good, point Ryan. The So they've come out,
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  Speaker 3: the beans team pretty well regarded. They've command and said
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  Speaker 3: due to cut, should cut rates by half a percent
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  Speaker 3: next week. They've got their monasory policy statement, it's a
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  Speaker 3: quarterly announcement and that would take it to three point
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  Speaker 3: seven five percent, and the BNS the team have gone
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  Speaker 3: a little bit further and said, look, we expect more
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  Speaker 3: rates to be signaled at that time and at a
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  Speaker 3: bit of a quicker pace, and perhaps what was talking
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  Speaker 3: about in November, which is our last munety policy statement,
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  Speaker 3: and they're saying we could actually see their visual cash
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  Speaker 3: rap back to three percent when we look at what
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  Speaker 3: capital markets are saying, definitely there's zero point five or
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  Speaker 3: a half a percent cut that's been sort of factored in.
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  Speaker 3: The markets agree the economy is weak enough and inflation
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  Speaker 3: is low enough to support lower rates. But you know,
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  Speaker 3: we will see markets react to the tone the words
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  Speaker 3: around the cut if indeed there is a cut, of course,
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  Speaker 3: but yeah, there is still a little way to go,
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  Speaker 3: but the directions pretty much down. Yep.
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  Speaker 2: Shane, thank you for that interesting stuff. Shane solely harbor
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  Speaker 2: Asset Managements on a Monday evening.
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