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Best Bets Today | Rays vs Brewers: A New Champ Guaranteed?! | MLB, NBA, NHL & CFB Picks Friday · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Well, we went 0-1 on the show yesterday. I mean,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: what can I say? Not even close with the Nashville Predators.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a great spot. I mean, dude,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: you're going to take a lot of losses in this business.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: That's what it is. The aim is to win a
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: higher percentage than you lose, essentially. A high enough percentage
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: to overcome what you have to pay. That was an underdog,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: so you only need to win 40-something percent of those
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: particular plays to be on the upside of it. What
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: can I say, man? I don't know what to tell you.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I am a Bruins fan. I don't think this team
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: is that good, but maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this team
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: is better than anybody expected. They look good so far.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe Nashville's not very good. Well, we know Nashville's not
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: very good, but it was a really good spot. That's
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: what it is. When you've done this for 20 years,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: you have a system. You go with what works, what's
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: worked long-term. It's not always going to pan out. It's
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: just what it is. We're going to try to get
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: back on the winning side today. We're going to be
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: in the NBA today to try to do that. Last
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: night's NBA, I mean. Jeez, it looked like both underdogs
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: were going to cover. We had the biggest blown lead
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: in modern NBA history by the Cleveland Cavs. And this
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: coming on the heels of them having, I think, the
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: biggest blown lead in the playoffs ever last year. So
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: this must just be what the Cavs do. They just
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: blow giant leads. That's what they do. They have absolutely
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: no resolve. James Harden is never going to win a championship.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: This Cavs team, yeah, they're ass. They have no fortitude.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know what else to tell you. They should
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: fire their coach. You cannot blow a 29-point lead in
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: whatever it was, like a little bit over a quarter.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: left in the game absolutely unbelievable completely insane that they
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: blew that game this Cavs team yeah they're no good
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: they're going to make the playoffs and get knocked out
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: once again that's what's going to happen to them what
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: a horrible team and yeah I hate the 76ers obviously
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: that's not news we know this I still think they're
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: an overrated team it's unbelievable that Cleveland blew that game
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: just again Yeah, whatever. I'm just going to keep ranting.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: It is what it is. And the NFL game, I
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: was correct about my strongest opinion on that with the over.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Don't have a whole lot else to say about that.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not happy that I was incorrect about the side
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: on a Thursday night game where I've been Running really
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: hot on Thursday nights as far as just predicting the
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: side is concerned. I knew that was a difficult game
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: to figure out the side. There were arguments for both
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: teams in that one. It was a close game statistically.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: If a couple things or even one thing went a
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: little bit differently, the Patriots definitely could have covered or
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: even won that game. So it is what it is. Very, very,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: very difficult game to try to figure out there. We're
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: going to go into the intro. Coming back, we're going
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: to talk NBA. There's a couple NHL games. There's college football,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: five games, I think, some bigger conferences in action, and
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: the World Series begins tonight. And you'll get my thoughts
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: on that after the intro.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: You got a slip in your palm and a hole.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: In your chest.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: in your hand. Now you stare at the chips like
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: they made you this man. But don't you go quiet,
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: something to somebody for sure. Put the glass down, baby.
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: Look at me now Hold.
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: On, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on, hold
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: on Let me pull you out That fella fights hard
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: But he don't get the crown Hold on, hold on,
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: stay with me.
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: Now What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you Toadstool
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: Sports Friday, October 23rd Let's get right into this man.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: We'll start with the NHL. The board here only has
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: one of the two games listed on it. I'm not
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: entirely sure what's going on with this unless maybe if
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: I refresh, maybe it'll fix it. This is driven by
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: odds logic, man. One of the more highly promoted tools
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: out there right now as far as market reading and
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: showing you all the percentages and stuff. This is the
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: free version of it, though, so you don't get the
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: fully up-to-date odds and whatever, but it's definitely a useful
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: tool anyway. It's on the WagerTalk website here. Anyway, two
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: hockey games. I'm not interested in these games, but Montreal
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: at Chicago is the first one. 8 p.m. Eastern for
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: this one. NHL Network. Montreal is going to be a
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: road favorite in this one. Montreal is coming off a
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: loss to the Sharks. I believe Montreal has played multiple
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: overtime games in a row. Yes, they have. Montreal was
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: able to avoid the Buffalo revenge spot twice today. recently
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: then they took an overtime loss to San Jose a
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: couple days ago they've had a couple days off here
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: starting a road trip usually you are focused to start
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: a road trip even though Chicago is not a team
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: that necessarily is going to draw your focus but starting
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: a road trip you usually want to get it off
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: on the right foot the next game is not really
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: that much bigger against Winnipeg so it doesn't really look
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: like an unfocused spot to me for Montreal For Chicago,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: they're staying at home off of getting shut out by Dallas. Dallas,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: we know, is one of the better teams in the league.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Chicago actually hasn't played for almost a week. So the
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Chicago team is going to be really rested. They've been
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: off since Saturday. And coming off a home shutout loss
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: like that and staying at home, usually a team has
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: a tendency to bounce back in a spot like that.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: So I think the spot does help Chicago here. I
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: would say Chicago's the way to lean. We can't market
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: read this thing because it's not up there. Montreal's a
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: minus 140-something favorite here. I'll slightly lean Chicago in that game,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: but no real strong opinion on that. I think both
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: teams are in what typically tends to be a focused spot,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: but Chicago's, I think, is a stronger focused spot with
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: additional rest. So my lean would be Chicago there. On
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: the money line, you get an underdog money line price
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: that's decent there. Tampa Bay at Colorado is obviously the
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: better of the two games, but it is no offense, Chicago.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: We're Montreal, I guess, even though Montreal are the big
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: rival of the Bruins. Tampa Bay at Colorado, this is
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: a good game. These are two of the top teams
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: in the NHL. People might be hailing this as a
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: potential finals preview, which is probably not going to be
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: the case, but it's possible. Only gets an ESPN Plus
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: billing here, though. Tampa Bay's coming off a really impressive
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: showing against the Vegas Knights the other day. 6-2 win
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: there to kick off the road trip. They're not going
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: to overlook Colorado, but having to play two high-intensity games
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: like this, two games in a row on the road
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: against two good teams, going into elevation like this doesn't
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: seem like the easiest thing to do to me. And
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: maybe Tampa looked a little bit too good in that
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: last game. Colorado is actually coming off a loss today.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to the Devils. So this could be a bounce back
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: spot for them. My reservations basically would be that they're
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip here. It was kind
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: of a quick road trip. It was just Monday, Tuesday,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: but they went all the way to Philadelphia, New Jersey.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming back home from that. Still technically a
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: return home spot where a lot of times the team
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: does get distracted and there's stuff they have to get
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: done at home, whatever. Although it makes it a little
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: bit easier for Colorado. It was not a long road trip.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: But they do have to swing right back out on
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: the road after this and play Nashville. However, I don't
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: really think they're going to overlook Tampa Bay. I mean,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: this is going to be one of their bigger games
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: amongst these recent games here. They do have a revenge
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: spot against New Jersey upcoming, but after the Nashville game.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So I don't see Colorado overlooking this. I'd be leaning
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Colorado in this game, but the money does not agree.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: 86% of the tickets are on Colorado. 77% of the
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: cash is They're a minus 120 something favorite here. It
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: does look like you're getting Colorado at a really cheap price,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: but I didn't expect the public to be that heavily
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: on Colorado here because the public is usually biased towards
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: what happened recently. Maybe they're just not getting involved in
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the hockey market today, although if they are, they're going
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: to be more involved in this game than the other game.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: They'll mostly probably play the over in this game though,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: but I don't think I'd really want to be on
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: an under in this game either though, even though Sometimes
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: these high-intensity games do result in a lot of defense,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: but I don't want to do it. Anyway, Colorado would
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: be my opinion here, but the money definitely does not agree.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: 86% of tickets and only 77% of the cash on them,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: so somewhat surprising market numbers there to me, at least.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Colorado's usually going to be a public side, but I
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: didn't think they'd be that public in that particular matchup, so...
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: That is what it is. All right, NBA is where
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: most of the action is happening. There's an afternoon game.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: between Chicago and Milwaukee. The way that I handicap these games,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: all these teams are going to be playing pretty much
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: their second game of the season now. So you know
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: what I do. I basically fade what you saw last.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Like that's kind of the thing here. Like I think
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: people are going to make too many judgments based on
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: what happened in the first game for these teams and
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: they're going to overreact so game two is usually when
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: you get a lot of overreaction it happens in like
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: week two of football and stuff like that that's to
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: even more of a degree though but still i think
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: that sentiment does hold in any of these sports people
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: are going to overreact especially to really lopsided results in
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: game one so what i'm going to be looking for
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: in game two for these teams is to try to
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Go against that overreaction essentially like the market might overreact
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Knowing that the public is probably gonna overreact to what
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: they saw last so for Chicago and Milwaukee I believe
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: they both lost really badly So the overreaction won't really
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: be in one direction here Chicago got absolutely obliterated by
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: the Raptors by 40 something points I think is what
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: that is Yeah, completely ridiculous Milwaukee looked also bad on
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: the road against the Wizards. Wizards seem to be a
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: little bit of an upstart team. We know this Milwaukee
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: team is on the downswing right now. They're going to
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: be rebuilding. I mean, they got rid of Giannis, whatever,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: and Portis. I don't want any involvement in this game,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: but I'd probably leave Chicago because they looked worse than
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee in that first game. And Milwaukee probably still has...
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Little bit of that sentiment behind them like oh, this
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: is a Milwaukee team that made the playoffs most of
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: the recent years so I think like the Perception is
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: still that Milwaukee is the better of these two teams.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure I mean these these are two
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference this year
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee has 53% of the tickets on them and 57%
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Chicago Milwaukee's like a one-point favorite
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: here basically one one and a half whatever and Yeah,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: I'd slightly lean towards the Bulls and agree with the
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: market in that one just because they looked even worse
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: out of these two teams' bad performances in the first game.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: The next game is an Amazon Prime game. There's a
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: doubleheader on Amazon Prime with a couple of the better
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: games of the night. This first one is New York
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: and Boston. My Boston Celtics up against the Knicks. Two
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: good teams. Two teams that I think are still near
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: the top of this conference. They're both 0-1. They're both
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: coming off of not easy games. I mean, the Knicks
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: lost to Philadelphia in the Knicks' home opener, though. The
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Celtics lost on the road at Detroit, but the Celtics'
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: performance was more... impressive I think the Celtics had a
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: huge lead in that game I still don't understand how
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: they blew that lead the Celtics dominated the majority of
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: that game really and they were up 22 points pretty
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: late in the game and completely blew it uh Celtics
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: you know they have these stretches where they just can't
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: score because they take way too many threes I'm probably
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: gonna have to lean to the Celtics in this game
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: though the Knicks I think their game was a little
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: bit more Um, it's the type of game that will
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: hang you over a little bit more like, yeah, playing
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Detroit's kind of a big deal, but ever, whatever. But
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: I think that Boston Detroit game is a little bit.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: misleading as far as the final score like it was
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: not really indicative of how most of that game played
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: out um knicks philadelphia that was a high intensity game
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: was like pretty close the whole time it was a
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: big game big deal for both teams so i think
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: the knicks coming off of that game might have a
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: little bit more of a tendency to be a little
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: bit more hung over so i would lean a little
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: bit towards the celtics in this one they're laying i
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: think two and a half points or something in this
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: one so odds makers are kind of considering these teams
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: to be pretty closely matched. Uh, this board doesn't even
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: have the game on it. So that's really, really helpful. Um, yeah,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: it's not, yeah, it's not even here. This board is
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: all fucked up right now. So I can't even tell
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: you what the market percentages look like, but yeah, I will, uh,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: I'll lean to the Celtics in that one. Uh, unless again,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: maybe this whole thing is just messed up and maybe, uh,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: something scrolled off the page. I don't know what we're
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: dealing with here. Oh, isn't that just great. I can't even, uh,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: hang on. I'm going to, No, that doesn't even work.
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: What?
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Now I can't even see the tabs up the top.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: This is so irritating, dude. Yeah, I don't know what
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: else to do with this. Now I can't even get
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: back to... I apologize. I can't even get the tabs
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: up at the top anymore to deal with this. Oh,
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: there we go. So ridiculous, dude. Anyway, yeah, Boston, New
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: York's not even up here, but whatever. Those are my
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: thoughts on that one. Atlanta and Charlotte... Charlotte won in
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: their first game, but not really an impressive win at Brooklyn,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: although I actually thought Brooklyn had a pretty decent chance
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: to win that game because Charlotte was only like a
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: one-point favorite there. Everybody remembers Charlotte getting to the playoffs
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: last year or whatever, although Charlotte did trade one of
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: their best players away in ball, but they got a
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: good defensive interior presence out of that trade with Nas Reed.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: So Charlotte may improve their defense with that, but I
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, Charlotte's style is similar to the Celtics,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: as I keep saying. They jack up a bunch of threes.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Atlanta seems to kind of be similar to that in
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: a way, too. They're a team that I think just
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: takes a lot of shots for the most part. Atlanta
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: had a better game in their first game. They upset
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: the Magic on the road in the first game, which I...
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Didn't necessarily expect, but I think Atlanta might be more
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: likely to be in a little bit of a letdown
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: spot after that second straight road game. Hornets did nothing
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: impressive in that first game, not looking that good against
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: a Brooklyn team that's really bottom of the barrel. So
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: I would lean to the Hornets in this game. Let
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: me see. That game's not on the board here either,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: so that's, again, extremely helpful. Thank you to OddsLogic for
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: all that help. By the way, yeah, well, I already
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: said the line in the Celtics game is like minus
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Atlanta is about minus two and
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: a half in this one. So if you like Charlotte,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: you'll get them as a slight home dog in that one. Uh,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Dallas at Indiana. I forgot Indiana even played, uh, because
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: they were on the road against the Pelicans and nobody
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: paid any attention to that. And Indiana barely got through
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: in that game. Dallas got smoked by Houston in their
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: first game, although Dallas actually kind of made a little
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: bit of a comeback later in that game, but obviously
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: they still felt way short. Um, I don't know which
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: of those performances is considered to be better or worse.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Like is probably Dallas won't
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: be knocked too much by, you know, the public or
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: whatever for losing to Houston, even though I don't think
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: the public thinks Houston's that good, but I think they
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: still probably consider that to be a difficult opponent for Dallas.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Whereas the Pacers looking kind of ugly, even though they
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: won against New Orleans, that might look a little bit
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: better ish. to the public eye, or excuse me, Dallas'
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: performance might look a little bit better to the public's eye, maybe,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: because they made that game a little bit more respectable
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: at the end of that game. Houston was really blowing
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: them out, though. Indiana has 73% of the tickets here,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: 92% of the cash on them, and the oddsmakers are
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: kind of indicating a little bit to you here with
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: this line being Indiana 6.5. So the oddsmakers are suggesting
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: that Dallas is a significantly worse team than Indiana here
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: because you don't get that much home court advantage in
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: the NBA. I would say at most it's two points.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Usually it's less than that. So oddsmakers, in a way,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: I think they're kind of telling you what you need
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: to know here because it's like, well, we don't know
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: who these two teams really are at this point. Indiana
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: really didn't look that good in that first game, but
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are kind of telling you, yeah, Indiana's the
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: better team here though, man, so... I'd probably lean towards
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: laying the points with Indiana there if I had to
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: do anything with it. Minnesota at Orlando, and this is
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: one of the types of spots where I come in
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: and I say, is there a zigzag aspect to this?
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Minnesota has Toronto next and then Cleveland.
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: Is Toronto considered to be that big of a game?
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: For a Western Conference team like Minnesota, I'm not sure.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: But Minnesota looked really good in their first game going
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: into the newly Giannis-led Miami. And Minnesota easily took care
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: of them. Minnesota pretty much completely dominated the game. Won
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: by 25 points in the game. Very impressive. Anthony Edwards,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: really impressive in the game. Giannis put up a ton
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: of points, but when you're not playing like a team
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: that has chemistry, it doesn't matter, you know what I mean?
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: There was one real outlier here, though, and that's that
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Minnesota shot 42% from three-point range. That was the big
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: difference in the game here, although Minnesota did completely dominate
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: in the paint as well. Seems a little weird because
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Miami does still have bomb out of bio there, but whatever.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Minnesota completely trashed them on the boards in this game.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Any way you look at it, well, I mean, most
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: ways you look at it, yeah, Minnesota pretty much dominated,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: but that was still a big outlier, though, with the
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: three-point percentage. Usually teams are not shooting 42% from three,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: and Miami shot lower than the league average from three
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: with their performance. They only shot 24%, so that was
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: a pretty big disparity there. Minnesota, in fact, was plus
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: 39 points from three-point range. Yeah, they had 13 more
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: three-pointers in the game. than Miami did. So Minnesota, that
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: is a big outlier, man. That's like the main thing
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: about this game is that definitely skewed this game a bit,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: the three pointers there. being plus 39 for three point
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: range almost unheard of so I'd be looking for that
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: to regress a little bit here from Minnesota maybe their
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: three point percentage shooting or three point shooting is likely
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: to fall down a bit in this game Orlando's coming
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: up an ugly home loss to the Hawks like I
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: said Orlando was a home favorite there This looks like
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: kind of a bounce-back spot for them, staying at home. And,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: of course, Minnesota's traveling, although they're staying in the state
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: of Florida for this. Minnesota's a hugely public side, 89%
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: of tickets, 93% of the cash on them. They're a
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: one-and-a-half-point favorite. It looks way too easy, really. The public's
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: just going to react to what they saw in that
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: first game. Oh, my God, Orlando lost at home to Atlanta.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Minnesota smoked Giannis and the Heat. Minnesota just looks like
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: the way better team right now. They look way too easy.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: And while, yes, they are the better team, I think
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Orlando's the right side in this game. And this one
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: really close to making the cut for me. I like
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Orlando in that one. Like if I was going to
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: add a second NBA play, yeah, that one might be it.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: I'm treading a little bit carefully early on here. But, yeah,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: I like Orlando in that one. And you get them
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: at like plus one and a half, uh, Toronto at Washington.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams had pretty good performances in their
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: first game. Although Toronto winning by whatever I said, 43 points,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: I think is what this is against the bulls. Now
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: having to travel, uh, Down to Washington, you go through
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: customs and whatever. Toronto might be, you know, even though
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: this is the Wizards, I mean, well, including the fact
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: that this is the Wizards, the Wizards are easy to overlook,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: excuse me. And Toronto does have that pretty tough Minnesota
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: team on deck here. So yeah, it's definitely possible Toronto
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: doesn't take Washington that seriously here. because they haven't been
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: good recently. Coming off a monster blowout win, even though
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: it was against a bad Chicago team, with Minnesota on deck.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: You could argue this looks a little bit sandwichy for
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Toronto here. So I'm going to be leaning towards Washington
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: in this one. Washington is staying at home. They beat
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: the Bucs in the first game. which is, you know,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: people probably still won't put that much weight into that,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: even though they might think, well, yeah, the Bucs were
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: a playoff team most years up until Giannis was hurt
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: too much, and then last year I think they failed
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: to make it, but whatever. That win for Washington, yeah,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I do think people will put a little bit too
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: much weight into it. Milwaukee's like one of the worst
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: teams in the conference this year, most likely, but All
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: that being said, I still like Washington in this game,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: although you're getting 8.5 points now, which does lead me
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: to believe that, and the line moved up from 4,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: so there's definitely some injury going on here. Whoops, I
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: clicked on the wrong game. There's got to be some
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: injury going on in this game here, man. Let me see. Washington,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: we know DeBonsa was already ruled out, though, but he's
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: like the main injury here, though, so I don't know.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Is DeBonsa alone worth like 4 points? I don't know.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: He hasn't played yet, I'm pretty sure. DeBonsa is their
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: number one draft pick here. Really, really, really good score.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: We know this. He was at BYU last year. No,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: it looks like he did play, so my mistake. Oh, no, no, no, no.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know why this said, yeah, DeBonsa exits the
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: game with an injury. That must have been in a
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: preseason game. Because, yeah, I thought he was already injured.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: He did not play in the first game. And it
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: looks like he will not be playing in this game either.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: But you're going to be getting 8.5 points now, man,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: with Washington. I mean, that is a huge number. 58%
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: of the tickets are on Toronto, 64% of the cash
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: on Washington. Yeah, this looks like an overreaction. Like, even
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: with DeBonsa out, I did not expect this line to
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: move all the way up to 8.5 points. where Toronto
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: looks like they open a four-point favorite. So, yeah, I
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: would take the points with Washington if I was going
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: to play that one. The next game is Detroit and Miami.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: This is where I'm going to be looking. This is
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: going to be the best bet that I have here
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: on the card, my only play that I have here,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: unless I decide to add another one.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you guys are probably not going to
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: like this, but again, we got to go contrarian here
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: and fade what we saw in the first game. This
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: might be the best example of doing that. We're going
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: to take Miami plus one here against Detroit. I think
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: this is not a good spot for Detroit. I think
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: this is the biggest sandwich spot that you can find
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: here of the day. Detroit just beat the Celtics in
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: their home opener. Big win for Detroit, and not only
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: was it a big win against still one of the
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: better teams in the conference, the Celtics, Detroit was able
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: to overcome a 22-point deficit late in that game. That
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: takes a lot of effort, man, to make a huge
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: comeback like that against a good team. The Celtics are
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: still a physical good defense, too. Detroit to overcome that,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: Now they have to go out on the road after that,
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: and usually I know I say the start of a
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: road trip usually is a focus spot. Not here, man.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. Even though you are playing Miami
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: with Giannis, Miami looked horrendous in Game 1, so it's
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: going to make them a lot easier to overlook. Beating Boston,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: big win for Detroit. Had to put in a ton
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: of effort to come back in that game. It was
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: kind of a misleading result too because the Celtics did
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: dominate the majority of that game. And look who Detroit
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: plays next. Oh yeah, they play the Philadelphia 76ers next.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: And then after that, they play the Knicks. So they
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: have this Miami game sandwiched in between Really what I
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: think are the top three teams in the Eastern Conference, Celtics, Philadelphia,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: New York. That's what this game is surrounded by. Yeah,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: good luck trying to get this one to Miami. And
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: you know you're going to get a better effort out
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: of Miami here after that first game. They looked awful
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: in that first game, losing by 25 points. But Minnesota's
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: a strong team, so no shame in losing to them.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: And as I already pointed out, Huge three-point outlier in
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: that game. Now, I know Miami got dominated on the boards.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: That is potentially a problem because Detroit is a good
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: rebounding team. Detroit out-rebounded the Celtics by a lot in
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: that game, so that was one thing the Pistons actually
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: did do well in that game. Kind of expected, though,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: because the Celtics are more of a perimeter shooting team, essentially,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: whereas Detroit is an interior paint presence type of team.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: I think Miami won't get totally dominated, though, like they
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: did in that first game on the boards, you would hope.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: But still, the huge outlier in that first game, again,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: was the three-point shooting. And Detroit is almost certainly not
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: going to shoot from three the way that Minnesota did.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Detroit doesn't even take enough threes to do that. They're
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: not going to be plus 39 from three-point range. That's
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: just not going to happen. And maybe Miami will shoot
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: a little bit better from three than they did because
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: they shot well below average from three in their game.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: So I think there are going to be some regression
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: points that help the case for Miami here. We're going
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: to take Miami. This is a fade, what you saw
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: last type of thing here. Miami opened a two-point favorite.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: It already flipped to a one-and-a-half-point favorite on Detroit. Now,
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that means there's any sort of
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: injury here. that we have to worry about, but either way,
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: we're getting more points with Miami here, or we're getting points,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: it looks like there's nobody really on the injury list here,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: just Prince for Detroit has a, he's been, I guess,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: out for personal reasons, but he might play as well,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: game time decision, either way, yeah, we're gonna get Miami
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: as a one, one and a half point dog here now, okay,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: I'll take that, and 57% of the tickets, 80% of
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: the cash on Miami, I'm shocked that even 57% of
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: the tickets would be on Miami, I kind of doubt it.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: I think Detroit, after what we saw in game one,
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: I think the public would see this, oh my God,
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: it's just a pick the winner price here. I think
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: they would only go with Detroit here. So I'm not
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: going to do that. We'll take the heat in that
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: game as my only bet that I have on the
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: card here.
• 27:50
  Speaker 6: All right.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Houston at San Antonio is the other Amazon Prime game.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Another Texas battle here. Houston coming off a nice performance
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: against Dallas in game one. It was probably better than
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: the final score actually made it look. I saw the
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: score like midway through that game, and Houston was just
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: blowing them out. I think Houston was probably up about
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: 30 in the middle of that game, won by 18.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: But yeah, nice win for Houston. Obviously, they have to
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: step way up in class here to face the Spurs.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: But the Spurs had a more difficult game in their
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: first game, man. The Spurs had their home opener against
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: the Thunder, who I still think are the best team
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: in the NBA. I think San Antonio's second. San Antonio
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: coming off a monster game like that, sometimes it's tough
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: to get back up off the mat after that, man,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: even though the Thunder outplayed them for the majority of
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the game. We got a win with the Thunder. My
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: only NBA play so far on the season was that game,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: the Thunder. I think I kind of lead Houston. here
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: in this one. Although if you like Houston, you can't
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: get the seven anymore. It dropped from seven to five
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: and a half. It does look like Houston is a
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: slightly public side, which I doubt it. I mean, that
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: surprises me. 55% of the tickets are on Houston, 50%
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: of the cash. I mean, unless you really think the
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: public is that heavy on Houston, just because they're one
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: and O and San Antonio's O and one. I kind
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: of doubt it, though. By the way, this game is
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: not in San Antonio. I forgot to mention that. This
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: is one of those games. I don't know why they
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: do this, but San Antonio played a couple games in Austin,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Texas last year, and that's where this game is going
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: to be. So this is actually kind of a neutral
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: site game. It's sort of in between the two cities.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: So this game is actually in Austin. So keep that
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: in mind. It's not in San Antonio's home arena, even
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: though they're the home team. No idea why they're doing this,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: but that's what's going on. At least it's not an international. game. Yeah,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: so San Antonio is favored. They dropped below that key
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: number seven, though, which if you have not heard me
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: talk about it, that is a key number in basketball
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: because when teams are down by three possessions, that's when
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: they stop intentionally fouling. But yeah, I still... I think
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: I would still lean Houston in this one, though, grabbing
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: the points here, but not a strong opinion from me.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: This is one of the lower-ish totals on the board,
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: by the way, because you're looking at two teams that
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: played pretty good deep then, so I think this is
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: actually maybe the lowest total that's on the board here today,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: although we don't see every game on the board here. Actually,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: the two games that aren't on the board are actually
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: a little bit lower, but this one is still pretty low,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: so that makes it a little bit more helpful to
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: take the underdog, although I know it's the NBA. You
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: get so many points scored in the NBA. How low
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: the total is doesn't matter that much, but yeah, that
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: would be my opinion on that one. New Orleans at Utah.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Seems like a difficult spot for New Orleans to have
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: to go out into high elevation here and play kind
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: of a later game here. You start getting into these
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: later games, you start having to deal with the biological
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: clock thing where these teams that are more Eastern, sometimes
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: they don't play as well in these later games that
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: are further West because they have to adjust their bio clock.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Although I think for New Orleans and going to Utah,
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: I think they only have to adjust one time zone over,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: so that's not really that bad. New Orleans lost their
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: opener to the Pacers at home. But going out on
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: the road to Utah, that's not going to be easy, dude. Again,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: high elevation. This Utah team, Maybe on the upswing here,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: this is Utah's home opener. They're coming back from Memphis,
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: so keep that in mind. But not really a true
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: road trip return or anything like that because it was
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: only a single game on the road. Utah did not
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: look good in that game. They lost by 20. But
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: this Utah team, I mean, at this point, Utah's the
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: better team over New Orleans. Utah is only a 2.5-point
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: favorite here, though. They opened 4, so the oddsmakers initially
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: were telling you, yeah, Utah's the better team here. Now
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden it's only a two-point line. There
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: might be an injury. I'll look in a second. But
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: New Orleans has 52% of the tickets here, believe it
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: or not. The money is seemingly on Utah, though, 89%
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. I'd probably agree. I'd probably
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: lean Utah. I think they're the better team, and I
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: actually think this price might be a little bit short here.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: There's got to be some injury here. It looks like
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: for Utah we have Alexander and Nurkic are both out
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: right now. So, you know, I don't know how much
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: of an impact that's going to have. I'm not too
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: familiar with Utah's personnel. I apologize. Those aren't like their
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: absolute key players, though. But whatever it seemed, that seems
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: to move the line like a point and a half
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: or two points on that game. But yeah, I would
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: prefer Utah on that one. Garrett, what's up? Thanks for
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: hanging out. Yes, App State with a ridiculous upset last
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: night of James Madison. James Madison totally fucked that game up.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know what happened to them in that game.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: They made that run to tie the game. They had
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: that drive, the final drive to tie the game, and
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, James Madison has all the momentum. They're
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: the better team going into overtime. I expected James Madison
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: was going to escape in that game, and they completely
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: bombed in an overtime. Couldn't even move the football at all.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: After they held App State to only a field goal,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. And then James Madison could not even
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: move the football. And then I believe they missed a
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: field goal. Or James Madison had the ball first, actually, right?
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: And they missed a field goal. And then all App
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: State needed was a field goal. I think that's what happened. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know exactly how that happened, man. That's pretty crazy.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: App State, not a horrible team, though. And I believe
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: I said that my lean in that game was towards
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: taking the points, although it was not a strong opinion
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: from me. All right, Memphis at Golden State. Memphis looked
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: okay in their first game. They won by 20 points
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: against the Jazz at home. The Jazz are probably a
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: little bit on the rise here. So it's not a
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: horrible game at all for Memphis. But now they've got
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: to go all the way to the West Coast, and
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: this is the first game where the bio clock spot
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: I think really might take effect. Memphis, I believe they're...
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: What are they, central time zone? And now they have
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: to go all the way to the west and play
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: a 10 p.m. Eastern game here. So they're going to
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: be finishing this game somewhere around at least 11 p.m.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: their time, somewhere 11 to midnight there. That's not a
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: good spot for Memphis, in my opinion, even though I
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: know usually I say the road trip start is usually
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: a focus spot. Golden State's still a team that has
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry and whatever. They have these names here, so
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: you're not necessarily going to overlook Golden State. Golden State's
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: got a bunch of injuries, though. I think Jimmy Butler
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: is hurt right now, which I didn't mention all this
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: when I handicapped the first game, although I still gave
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: you guys a correct lean on the Lakers in the
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: first game anyway. But, yeah, Golden State. Curry is, like,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: somewhat injured but playing, I think, with an ankle thing.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: And then I'm pretty sure Butler is out. And Podzemski,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: I think, is also out. And Porzingis looks like he's
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: considering retirement. Like, Porzingis is just always injured, dude. So
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: he's also not playing either, and he's technically on Golden State.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can look at their depth chart to
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: see what's going on here. Yeah, so you can see
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: what's going on here. It looks like on the depth chart, yeah,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Butler's not even on the chart right now, it looks like.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: So he's out, I guess, indefinitely. Podzemski is at least
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: day-to-day here now. Golden State did draft Yaxa Lendeborg, who was...
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: one of the key players in that Michigan championship run
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: last year. So we will see it. It freaked me out.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: See Mara, by the way, a die Mara, whatever from Michigan.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: He he's on the thunder. Now I had that game
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: off for a little while last night. I'm like, Whoa,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: I'm like, Oh, it's Mara. That's weird. Uh, it's like,
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: you're seeing him like out of context. I'm like, Oh yeah,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: they drafted that guy. All right. Um, Anyway, yeah, so Memphis,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: kind of a bad bioclock spot, coming off a nice
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: win here. Golden State looked pretty putrid in their loss
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: to the Lakers, but they're staying in California here. I
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: think this one is... I mean, this is a game where...
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, usually I am going to do this and
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: fade what we saw in the first game. I would
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: do it here as well. I would be leaning towards
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Golden State in this game. That on top of what
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: I think is a bad bioclock spot for Memphis... Oddsmakers
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: are telling you Golden State's still supposed to win this game,
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: even though they have all these injuries. They're a three-and-a-half-point
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: favorite here. 67% of tickets, 68% of the cash on
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Golden State. So they're a little bit public just because
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: of the name recognition there, but I think they might
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: be the right side in that one. So lean Golden
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: State for me there. Then we have the Battle of L.A.,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: Clippers and Lakers. Both these teams won in their first game,
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: although the Clippers beat the Kings, who might be the
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: absolute worst team in the entire league. Not that impressive,
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: but the Clippers absolutely blew them out. It's somewhat impressive
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: when you blow out any other NBA team, really. But
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: the Lakers, obviously, they'll get way more credit for blowing
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: out the Warriors. So I think the Clippers are probably
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: going to be the way to lean in this game.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: The Lakers, they play Utah next. I don't know if
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: that's that big of a deal, but... Yeah, based on
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: the first game, there's going to be a little bit
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: of an overreaction, I think, to the Lakers' win, and
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: nobody's going to care that the Clippers took care of
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: the Kings. The Clippers obviously also consider themselves to be
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: the little brother in the city of L.A., so... They
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: usually put a little bit more effort into these games
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: against the Lakers. So, yeah, I think the Clippers are
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: the lean here. The Lakers are a huge favorite. They
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: opened 10, and they already dropped to 9.5. Luckily, this
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: isn't football, so 10 is not really a key number
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: at all in the NBA or in basketball. So getting 9.5
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: rather than 10 isn't a huge deal here. Lakers are
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: getting the money, though. 52% of the tickets, 92% of
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. But I.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Would disagree with that one. I would lean towards the
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Clippers plus the points in that one. And again, these
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: market percentages might change throughout the day, so keep that
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: in mind. And then we have Portland at Sacramento to
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: finish this off. Portland blew the Suns out in the
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: first game. I was shocked by that, actually. I thought
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: the Suns were kind of a little bit of an
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: undervalued team coming into this year because they still have
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: some pretty strong players there on that Suns roster. And
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: they got absolutely drilled by Portland. in that first game.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Portland now with Ja Morant there. He contributed, and he
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: was pretty good in that first game. Portland played a
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: good team game there, where they had a lot of
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: contributions from multiple different players there. This Portland team does
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: look like they're on the rise, but that was, I think,
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: too impressive of a win, man. I mean, they won
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: that game by 41. Like, you're never going to.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: You're never going to be able to not overvalue something
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: like that. You know what I mean? Now they're playing
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: this putrid Kings team that got annihilated in their first game.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: Portland probably is going to look right past them, man.
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: Portland's got the Lakers on deck. So that could be
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: a big look ahead. That's obviously a huge game whenever
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: you play the Lakers. So this looks pretty sandwichy to me.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: And Sacramento, as I already mentioned, is coming off that
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: bad performance against the Clippers where they lost by 25 points.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: So nobody's going to want them here. But Sacramento, even
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: though they're coming home, they're staying in the state of
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: California for this. The Trailblazers are having to travel for this,
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: at least. But both teams staying on the Pacific Coast, though,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: so whatever. But I think the only move here is
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: to take the points with Sacramento. Portland's got 83% of
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: the tickets, 90% of the cash. on them. The line's
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: already up to 8.5. So you're getting a pretty decent
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: amount of points with the Kings here. I know it's bad.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: I know the Kings, like I already just said, I
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: think they're the worst team in the NBA. But, dude,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: you've got to do it sometimes. It's not going to
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: make the cut for me, but it's close. So I
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: like Sacramento. Sacramento. So I gave you guys my play.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: My play is on Miami. I think it's a massive
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot that Detroit is in. And Miami at least
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: is not a completely pathetic, putrid team. So at least
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: we're not going to play one of those teams. But yeah,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: my other strongest leans in the NBA here were Orlando
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: and unfortunately Sacramento. I think those are the next two
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: best plays that you have on the NBA board here.
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: I will go to the hydration break right now, come back.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: We got five college football games. I have one opinion
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: there that's stronger than the rest, and then baseball, which
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: I considered finding something in the baseball game to put
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: on the card, but I just can't do it, man.
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: I can't do it. So we'll talk about that after
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: the break. Let's do it.
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: Let's do it. Thank you. All right.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Next, we're going to go to some college football here next.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: All right. We'll switch over to that here. Hey, at
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: least the board has all five games here. Uh, the
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: first game up as part of the ESPN double header.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: And this is actually an ACC championship rematch, uh, from
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: the teams that were in it last year, Duke and Virginia.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Although neither team actually made the playoff, uh, because of
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: the way things worked out. I think, um, Miami still
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: wound up being the playoff team. The only team that
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: made the playoff from this putrid ACC, if I remember correctly, um,
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: They just had the better season, even though they didn't
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: even make the ACC championship. So I guess the question becomes,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: is this really a revenge game or not? Because it
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: wasn't really an elimination game. It was still for at
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: least bragging rights, though, in an ACC title. And Duke,
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: I believe, won that game in overtime. And I believe
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: that was actually revenge for Duke losing to Virginia during
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: the regular season last year. So now the question is,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: is this a revenge game for Virginia after losing the
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: ACC title game to Duke last year, even though all
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: it wound up doing is putting Duke in a slightly
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: better bowl or something. They did not make the playoff.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: I think maybe you could argue that it is, that
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a revenge game for Virginia here,
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: even though they have a different quarterback now with Pribula,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: who used to be on Missouri and whatever, and he
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: doesn't really look that good. Duke, their defense is actually
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: not as bad as maybe I thought it would be.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: But still, if you look at Duke's run here so far...
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: It's still not impressive, dude. I mean, they don't have
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: any good wins. Their best win is on the road
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: at Illinois. Illinois sucks. I'm sorry. And now Duke is
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: coming off getting upset by Georgia Tech, although I actually
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: liked Georgia Tech in that game because that was an
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: inverted bye situation where Duke, I think, had their momentum
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: stopped by having to go into the bye on a
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: 4-0 run. Then Duke, I thought, would turn around last
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: week and beat UNC, and they had the lead late
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: in that game, Garrett. And Duke lost the game anyway.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: I think Duke might be a little bit hungover after that, though,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: to be honest. That was a big game. That's always big. Duke,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, huge rivalry. Both teams get up for it.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: I think coming off a game like that, and Duke
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: almost won the game, could be a little bit of
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: a hangover aspect of this year for them. on top
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: of Virginia possibly being a little bit more focused because
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: Virginia lost the ACC title game to Duke last year. Virginia,
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: I think, has a little bit of extra time off.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: When was this SMU game? Let me see. No, I'm wrong.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: Both teams played on Saturday. I don't remember this game
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: even happening. Virginia, I probably talked about it on the show, though.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: Virginia and SMU. Virginia lost by double digits at SMU. But,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, people are just not going to think that
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: that's very impressive, only scoring 13 points there. And, yeah,
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: I know this Virginia team, they haven't been that good offensively.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: You know, I still don't know if their defense is
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: that bad, but I don't think Duke's offense is that
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: good either. So I think Virginia... can maybe surpass them
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: in this game. This game is looking like it's supposed
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: to be ugly. The total's low. It opened 47.5, dropped
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: to 46.5. So if you wanted the under, you've lost
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: the key number of 47 already, and the money is
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: definitely coming in on the under in this one. But
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: I like Virginia in this one. 58% of the tickets,
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: 82% of the cash on Virginia. So the money seems
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: to agree with me on that. They opened 1.5, and
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: they're already 2.5. If you like Virginia, make sure that
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: it doesn't get to three. Just lay the two and
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: a half or play a money line or something like that.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: That would be my lean in that game. I'd lean
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: to Virginia for the reasons I said. It's a mild lean,
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: but that would be my opinion in that game. This game,
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: UMass at UConn. The two New England schools here. UMass,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: I think they're still U.S. I make that joke every week,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: but yeah. This game's on CBS Sports, by the way,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: at 7 p.m. UMass opened the season 4-0. They haven't
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: won since then, although really their only bad loss was
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: the home loss to Eastern Michigan, where UMass was, I thought,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: too heavy of a favorite in that one. Since then,
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: UMass has been the underdog. in the last two games,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: and they came really close to beating Miami, Ohio, and Buffalo.
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: So UMass played pretty well in those two games. Both
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: those teams, Miami, Ohio, and Buffalo, I think were somewhere
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: around a touchdown favorite in those games against UMass. So
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: now UMass is coming off that, but I think it
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: could be a hangover for UMass here, coming off those
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: two pretty big efforts against Miami, Ohio, and Buffalo. Now
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: they're playing an independent UConn team. So this game for UMass...
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: It's not a conference game, although what I will say
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: is that UMass, you know, I mean, they're not going
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: to win this conference. We know this. They're 1-3. UMass
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: has a chance to make a bowl, though, so they
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: do have to get some wins here. I don't think
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: it's going to happen in this game, though, and I
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: think they might be still a little bit hungover after
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: almost beating Miami, Ohio, and Buffalo as decent-sized underdogs. UConn's
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: only sitting at 3-3, so they have a worse record
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: than UMass does, but UConn, I mean... They also played
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: really close against Miami, Ohio. UConn just beat Temple in
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: their last game, which is a decent win, really. Temple's,
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: you know, not horrible. And UConn did have a bye
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: after that, though, so that's kind of my issue with UConn, though,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: is you might think, well, they have extra rest here now. Yeah,
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: that's true. But I think it came at a bad time.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: I think when you go into the bye on a
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: good note like UConn did, 34-20 win over Temple on
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: the road, that can be a bit negative. The bye can, like,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: disrupt your momentum, and you don't really have anything to
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: fix in the bye. You know what I mean? So
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: sometimes you come out of that bye not totally focused.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: So I think both these teams might not be totally
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: focused here. But what's really interesting is UConn at 3-3
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: is a 14.5-point favorite here against a 4-3 UMass team.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: And everybody saw UMass had the biggest win out of
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: either of these teams with a huge upset win of Rutgers,
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: whereas UConn, I think, lost both of their games. uh
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: power conference games that they played i think they lost
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: to maryland and syracuse i think i think the syracuse
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: game was close but syracuse isn't really that good obviously
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: but yeah it is interesting Why would UConn be a
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: two-touchdown favorite in this matchup? You know what I mean?
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are telling you UMass is still really bad.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: This UConn team is not what they were last year.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: They don't have Fagnano at QB anymore, even though their
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: offenses actually look pretty good at times this year. But
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: the Oswego's are telling you what you need to know, really.
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: They're telling you UConn's still the way better team here,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: and UMass is still the dregs of the FBS. They're
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: still not a good team. They're still probably one of
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: the worst 10 or 15 teams in FBS. UMass looks
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: like they might be getting the money, although they are
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: a public underdog here, I think, and public underdogs are
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: pretty dangerous, but I don't know. Is the public really
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: even playing this game? I don't know. So maybe the
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: real money is playing UMass here. 71% of the tickets,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: 84% of the cash on UMass. It opened 16.5, dropped
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: to 14.5. The one good thing, if you like the
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: UMass side here, is that it's a low total. It
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: has gone up, though, to 50.5, but that's still pretty low.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: To be laying double digits in a game where you
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: might not get that much offense here, I don't know, though, man.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: My instinct on this game is still to lean towards
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: laying the points with UConn, though. My instinct has just
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: been that UMass is still overrated after that 4-0 start,
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: and there's a reason why this line is really, really big,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: and it seems like it's way too big. So I
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: think I'd be more inclined to lay the points in
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: that one, but I don't want to do it with
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: a low total like that either. Yeah, I don't have
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: a whole lot else on this game, but... Both teams
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: being in kind of negative spots, I guess you could
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: make a little bit of an argument for the over.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: It looks like kind of a public over. Money kind
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: of coming in towards the over in that game, though.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: Even though usually low totals, I tend to say that
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: those totals usually go under. I don't know. I don't
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: have a great read on it, but yeah, I mean,
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: those are kind of my thoughts on it. When teams
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: are in spots where they might be a little bit
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: unfocused or fatigued or whatever, as might be the case
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: with UMass here, that affects the defense a lot more
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: than the offense usually. So that's why I was saying
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: maybe the over makes some sense there, but one, one
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: way to push back on that as well. Yukon is
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: coming out of a buy. And sometimes when you come
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: out of a buyer, offensive rhythm is a little bit off.
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: So that would be one concern with trying to play
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: the over in that game. It's a tough game to
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: figure out Zach. What's up. Thanks for, thanks for hanging out. Um,
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: Next game, this is the game that I like the
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: most on the college football slate here, Army at Tulsa
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: on ESPN2. Army, I think Army's in a tough spot here, actually.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Army's coming up a blowout win over FAU, where they
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: put up 56 points against FAU. You gotta think that
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: That's going to have them overvalued a bit in the market. Like,
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: that's a ridiculous amount of points to score. 56. And
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: you look at this game like, well, how did that happen?
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: Because this Army team, I mean, they're not exactly a
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: high-scoring offense. Here you go. They had two pass attempts
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: in the entire game. They had two passing yards. We
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: know Army's a triple option attack. We know this. They
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: run the football on almost every down. So, obviously, they
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: had a ton of rushing yards in this game. Clearly,
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: they had... over 400 something rushing yards but this game
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: got way out of hand because FAU also had three
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: turnovers in this game so even though Army outplayed them
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: there's no doubt about that but this was a way
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: more lopsided result than it should have been because of
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: all the turnovers on the FAU side like statistically this
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: game was a lot closer than the final score makes
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: it look like it should have been more of a
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: like small win for Army based on the stats here
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: those turnovers really really threw the game completely out of
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: whack here So this was not really what it appeared
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: to be on the scoreboard. So I think that's going
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: to overvalue Army a little bit off of that win. Oh,
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: and it gets a little bit worse for Army because
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: guess who they play next? Oh, yeah, they got to
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: play Memphis next. That's a huge game, dude. Memphis, one
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: of the top teams in this conference pretty much every
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: single year. It's one of the games you really, really
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: get up for, and that's going to be at Memphis.
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: It's on ESPNU. It's going to be a Saturday game, though,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: but a primetime night Saturday game, so we will see.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that looks like a look ahead
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: to me, so I think you could make the argument
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: this is a sandwich spot that Army is in here,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: so they might overlook Tulsa here, man. And as I
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: am going to point out again, even though I wasn't
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: really thinking about it, even though I had slight leans
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: towards the home teams in all these games so far,
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to in this game too, as you
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: can probably tell, the home team does get a little
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: bit of a boost in these primetime games that are
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: kind of isolated, right? Like you get these big TV billings.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: The home team usually gets up a little bit more.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: The crowd usually gets a little bit more intense for it.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: More people show up for it. You know, there are
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: big TV shows. channels in town and whatever. Teams want
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: to look good on the national stage. I think that
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: the home teams just usually have a little bit more
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: motivation in games like this. But yeah, I like Tulsa
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: for more than just that reason. Like I said, I
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: think Army's in a really difficult spot here. Tulsa, they
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: just beat Rice in their last game. While I know
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: that's not impressive, they beat Rice by quite a bit.
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: If you look at the box score, Tulsa won the game.
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: It wasn't as dominant as it looked on the scoreboard, though.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: Tulsa outplayed them by a little bit, but the one
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: thing that I think you really take away from this, Rice,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: look what type of offense they run, man, which I
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: thought was still the case. Rice only had six passing
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: attempts in the game. You know what that means. Rice...
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: They run the football all the time, and I think
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: they are actually still a triple option attack. So Tulsa
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: just saw the triple option. And while I know Rice
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: doesn't run it as well as the service academies do,
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: assuming they still run it, well, that's also okay, too,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: because guess who Tulsa played two weeks ago? And they
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: actually did all right in that game and only lost
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: by eight. Oh yeah, they played Navy in that game.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: So Tulsa is actually playing a third straight game against
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: the triple option pretty much. So they're used to it
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: at this point. They've seen it. This is like maybe
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: the best possible time to catch a triple option opponent.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: is after you've already prepared for it two weeks in
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: a row, pretty much. Now you're preparing for it three
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: weeks in a row, basically. So I don't think Tulsa's
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: going to be thrown off by that. And Tulsa's defense
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: has actually been okay this year. And, you know, Tulsa,
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're... You look at their season, it's actually
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: not that bad. They beat Oklahoma State. Their one blowout
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: loss was at Arkansas. I mean, that's an SEC team.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: You didn't expect Tulsa to win that one. They had
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: an overtime really high-scoring loss against North Texas. Played pretty
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: well in that game against a pretty high-powered North Texas offense.
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: And then, like I said, they came with an 8
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: of Navy. So Tulsa is not getting blown out in
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: any of these games except for that one against Arkansas.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: But obviously, this is not at Arkansas. This is at
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: home against Army. And I think Army is in a
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: pretty difficult spot here. I have no idea why the
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: money seems to be coming in on Army here. I
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: like Tulsa. I think this is the strongest game on
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: the college football board here. I like Tulsa. Army, 60%
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: of tickets, 91% of the cash on them. The line flipped, actually.
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: Army was a one-point favorite, and now Tulsa is a one,
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: one-and-a-half-point favorite here. So the line did flip towards Tulsa
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit here. There's a reason why Tulsa's favored, dude.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: Some of it is because they're at home, I know,
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: and the oddsmakers are not giving them full home field,
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: I get it, but the public's going to look at
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: this and only want to play Army because they have
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: the better record, they have the better conference record, whatever,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: but Yeah, I'm going to go with Tulsa in this one.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: I think Tulsa, again, you heard what I said about
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: the spot. I think it sets up pretty well, actually,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: for Tulsa there. So I like Tulsa in that one.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: It is also kind of a weird travel spot for Army,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: if you think about it. Army, they have not gone
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: further west than Louisiana so far this year. They played
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: at La Tech. And by the way, they lost that game.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: So this is going to be the furthest west they've
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: gone all season. So it... Mmm, I'm pretty tempted, actually.
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: Oof.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: Should we do this? It is definitely tempting to take
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: Tulsa here.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: Hoo boy.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: Hold on, let me see. Where's FAU in the standings? Like,
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: how good of a win was that? I mean, FAU's 4-2.
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: They just haven't really played many conference games yet. They
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: were 1-0 in conference until they ran into Army.
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: Mmm. Mmm.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, man. I mean, I like this one. Hold on.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: Let me make sure that Rice runs the triple option.
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: I believe they do, because they've run it for a while. Yeah,
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: it says they have a modernized version of it. A
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: gun triple option and spread option. With Scott Abel, who
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: brought it over from Davidson. Yeah, that's what I thought...
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: So it's not the typical triple option. I guess it's
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: an option attack, but it's out of the shotgun and
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: pistol formations, basically. So still, they're basically running the options still, though,
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: and running basically all running plays. So it is pretty similar.
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: Did I.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: All right. Hold on. What's the number on this?
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: Let me see. Dude, I don't know why the money
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: is apparently coming in on Army here, though. Tulsa, it's
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: like minus 1.5 here. Money line is about minus 120.
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: Those are your options, basically, in this game. Let me see. Yeah,
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess laying the one and a half
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: uh because i mean you know if they're gonna win
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: it's highly likely they're gonna cover that of course if
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: they win by one i'm gonna be unbelievably pissed but
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: yeah let's uh fine let's do it that might mean
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: i have to add this to my um my contest
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: entry Um, cause I was thinking I might be loading
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: up on all Saturday games, but maybe I won't. I
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: only have, I have like three definitive plays so far
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: for tomorrow, but we will see. But yeah, let's find,
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: let's take Tulsa, um, minus the one and a half.
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: All right. Uh, the next game, another triple option attack
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: with air force at Wyoming on the CW as we
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: get into mountain West. Action here. I think these are
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: both Mountain West teams still, right? I believe so.
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: Air Force is coming up a really nice win against UNLV, man.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: UNLV has been one of the top teams in the
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: Mountain West the last few years. Nice win for Air Force.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: Air Force looked really good in putting up a ton
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: of offense against UNLV. UNLV is not good on defense, though.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: All right. UNLV is like all offense. Wyoming is almost
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: the complete opposite. Wyoming plays okay defense, and they have
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: no offense at all. So I think this game is
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: going to be completely different than this UNLV game. Also,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: Air Force caught UNLV in a good spot because UNLV
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: was coming off a big win, I believe, over North
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: Dakota State, who is new to FBS this year. North
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: Dakota State trying to crash the party in the Mountain
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: West and certainly has a chance to win the conference still.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: North Dakota State was undefeated, I believe, until that point.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: UNLV knocked them out. So I think UNLV was in
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot after that, plus having to go into
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: elevation to face Air Force. So Air Force caught UNLV
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: at a good time in a scheduling spot that wasn't
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: good for UNLV. So Air Force was able to get
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: that win there. Big win for Air Force. Air Force
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: is sitting pretty well right now at 5-1 and 3-1
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: in the conference, but I just don't think they're that good, man.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: You look at their wins so far. I mean, what's
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: their best win here? I mean, come on, man. Their
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: best win, I guess, was when they caught Navy having
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: to come all the way out into elevation here, which,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: you know, that was part of the Commander-in-Chief trophy. These
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: teams do play each other every year, but still, Navy
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: having to come out and play in Colorado against Air Force,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: that's not easy to do, dude. So that's probably Air
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: Force's best win.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: I mean....
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Air Force, they're a phony 5-1, dude, okay? They
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: played all right against North Dakota State, though. They actually
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: came back and had a chance to maybe win that game. But, yeah,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not impressed by Air Force still, though. Their record
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: makes them look better than they actually are. Wyoming is
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: also bad. I'm not going to deny that. Wyoming doesn't
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: really have any impressive wins here either. I mean, their
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: best win is... I don't even know, man. I mean,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: on the road against San Jose State, I guess. I mean,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: that's not good. So neither of these teams are good.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: Wyoming just beat Northern Illinois in their last game. I
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: think both teams played on Saturday, so I know I'm
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: not really mentioning the rest situation for some of these teams,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: but there isn't much to speak of, except I think
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: I mentioned UConn is coming out of a bye. But
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: other than that, I don't think any of these other
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: teams are coming off of a bye, but I will
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: double-check that. I believe that's the case, though. So yeah,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: Wyoming beat Northern Illinois in their last game. Not impressive.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: This Northern Illinois team's very bad this year, and they're
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: for some reason in the Mountain West now. I have
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: no idea why. So Northern Illinois having to go play
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: in Wyoming, very, very strange for Northern Illinois to have
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: to do that. This game mostly looks like an under
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: to me. The public is all over the over for
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: whatever reason. I guess because, well, we saw Wyoming just
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: put up 40 points against Northern Illinois, and Air Force
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: just put up 40 points. against UNLV. So I think
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: maybe that will be the tendencies. Oh, my God, these
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: teams just both scored 40 themselves in the last game,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: and the total in this game is in the mid-40s.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: So it looks actually pretty easy to play the over here. So, yeah,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: I would fade that sentiment. I like the under in
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: this game. 92% of the tickets are on the over.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: 93% of the cash on the over. I just think
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: it's a public over here, though. And the line went
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: up from 43.5 through 44 to 45.5 here. But, yeah,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: I like the under. I mean, Air Force is going
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: to be running the football all the time. Wyoming at
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: least sees this pretty much every year because Wyoming, I think,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: does have to play Air Force pretty much every year.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: So they do see the triple option. Basically, every year,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: they have some idea how to stop it. At least Wyoming,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: like I said, they're much better on defense than offense.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: Their offense sucks. So, yeah, and the fact that Air
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: Force has both these teams actually have misleading records, like
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: they have decent looking records here, but they're both not
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: as good as their records suggest. So, yeah, I kind
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: of like the under in this one. And the odds
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: are telling you what you need to know. Like, despite
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: the fact that these teams both scored 40 on their
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: own last week, the total here is 44, 45 and
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: a half now. So, yeah, under makes sense to me
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: in this one.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: And.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, as far as the side, Air Force has 59%
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on them. Wyoming has 85% of the cash.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: Air Force dropped from six and a half down to
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: five and a half here. I'm not going to disagree
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: with Wyoming. I think in a game that you think
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: is going to be ugly and low scoring, taking any
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: points you can get somewhat makes sense here, especially when it's,
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: you know, five and a half is not nothing at least. So,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: you know. I think, yeah, taking Wyoming plus the points
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: makes some sense. Public is on Air Force because Air
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: Force is a one-loss team. But like I said, their
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: record is very unimpressive. I mean, their resume is really
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: unimpressive so far. The Wyoming's is not really good either. So, yeah,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: I like the under mostly in that game, though. Yeah,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: you like me deciding to, you know, take more risks. Yeah.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: Last game is NC State at Stanford. 10.30 p.m. on ESPN,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: and you know what I'm going to say right away.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: NC State having to travel to the Pacific Coast, that's bad.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: In fact, I do think NC State, speaking of buys,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: I think NC State is actually coming out of a
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: buy here. But even so, yeah, that'll help with their
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: travel a little bit because they have an extra week
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: to get out there and adjust to the time zone
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: or whatever. But even so, it's still not an easy
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: spot having to go to the Pacific Coast as an
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: East Coast team and play a late-night game like this,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: which is, not what your biological clock is used to.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: So that's still not great for NC State here. They
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: did have a bye, and they are coming off a
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: very ugly loss to Wake Forest. So the Wake Forest
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: is playing well and currently ranked. But that was a
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: big North Carolina rivalry. NC State usually considered the big
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: brother there, and they got just housed by Wake Forest
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: there in their own building at NC State. So the
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: bye did come at a good time for NC State because, again,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: when you go into the bye on a bad note,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: I think the bye helps you fix things, and they
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: do at least have the extra week to get out
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: there to Stanford, so it's less bad for NC State
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: than it normally would be. The Stanford team, their defense
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: has been awful, but they basically kind of had a
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: bye last week too. They played Elon last week, and
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: they got back on the winning track by beating one man,
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: the the, uh, the, the, uh, the owner of, uh, Tesla,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: whatever they beat Elon in their last game. And Elon
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: had to go all the way out to the Pacific
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: coast for that. Elon, I think is in North Carolina,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, whatever, wherever the hell they are. Um, Weird,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: weird spot for Elon to have to go all the
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: way out to the Pacific Coast. So not a good
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: spot for Elon there, really. Kind of a weird spot,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: but still Stanford staying on the Pacific Coast. Stanford was
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: actually coming back to the Pacific Coast too, though, because
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: they were in Notre Dame the game before that. So
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: Stanford got back on the winning side, though, last week,
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: even though they were also returning to the Pacific Coast.
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: At least they're kind of used to it. I think
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: that was kind of like a buy, like a tune-up
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: type of game for Stanford. I think that will help
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: give them new momentum because they broke a losing streak.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: Sometimes that'll give you new momentum. They got a home
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: ESPN game, so they probably get a little bit excited
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: about this. You know, they do have Louisville next. They
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: have to fly back east to play Louisville. But I
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: see Stanford kind of getting up for this. And I
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: think the public's going to look at this and be thinking, oh, well,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: Stanford lost 57-3 to Wake Forest. And yes, I admit
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: that was a loser I gave out on the show.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a really bad spot for Wake
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: in that one. And I'm still not really sold on Wake.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Stanford... I don't know, man. It was just
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: a weird travel spot, I guess, for them. They didn't
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: have it at all. But people are going to look
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: at that and say, oh, Stanford lost even worse than
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: NC State did to Wake Forest. So NC State should
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: be the right side here. I think that's the public sentiment.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: The public will be on NC State most likely in
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: this game. But Stanford, they have not really faced an
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: easy schedule. You've got to at least admit that. Even
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: though I lost on them twice, I lost in the
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: Miami game as well. But they had to play Miami.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: They have to keep going east. They had to play
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: at Duke, who's at least somewhat okay-ish. They had to
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: play at Wake Forest, like I said, who's not really
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: that bad at this point. And they had to play
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: at Notre Dame. So this has not been an easy schedule.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: And they lost all three road games. At home, Stanford
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: has not been that bad. In fact, they're 3-1 at home.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: They're only lost at home to Miami. And their best win,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: I guess if you want to say so, came at
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: home against Georgia Tech. where they caught one of these
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: more easterly teams going out west. So, yeah, I mean,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: I think I'm going to lean Stanford here. Even though
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: NC State does have an advantageous buy, here, NC State's
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: a public side, 79% of the tickets, although they have
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: 93% of the cash on them, it looks like. They're
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: about a seven-point favorite. It went down a little bit
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: to six and a half, but that's got to tell
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: you something. The odds makers are not willing to move
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: this line through the key number, even though they know
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: that The public is going to be coming in on
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: this game because it's on ESPN. It's one of these
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: kind of isolated Friday night games. Public might be involved
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: in this game more if they lose money on Duke, Virginia.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: They might come back in and put money on this
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: game too. So there's going to be a lot of
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: public volume on this particular game. The oddsmakers know that,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: and yet still, they've actually ticked the line down a
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: little bit from seven to six and a half. So
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: that tells you there is some professional money coming in
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: on Stanford here and holding this line down. That's what
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: that should tell you, that it has not crept up,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: even though the public is all over the favorite, right
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: around that key number seven. If you like Stanford here,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: I would try to get the key number seven. Don't
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: take the six and a half if you can help it.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: You should be able to get a seven, at least
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: by game time. Some books look like they have it
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: right now. I won't be doing that one, but yeah,
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: I'm going to lean Stanford. In that one, although their
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: defense does suck, I have to admit that, and the
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: total is high, sort of, in the mid-50s. So that's
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: not great, but still, that's what I'd be looking at
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: in that game, leaning that way. All right, one more
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: game to talk about. The World Series begins tonight, and
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: whoever wins the World Series is going to be a
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: first-time World Series champion. Neither of these teams has ever
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: won a World Series. They've been to the World Series before,
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: but neither of them have ever won it, so... I
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: don't know. Maybe the MLB wanted to set it up
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: this way, and they feel like this is exciting. I
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: don't know. Maybe it's not that exciting. I apologize to
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: the fans of these teams, but this is two small
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: ball teams, man, kind of smaller market teams. I mean,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: I don't mind that because fuck the Yankees, fuck the Dodgers, whatever.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: But still, does it make for a really interesting baseball, though?
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know. This will be Game 1, and, you know,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: I got some flack for saying that I think the
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: American League is going to be a little bit undervalued
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: in the series. And you can see Milwaukee is a
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: favorite to win the series here, and they're favored in
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: Game 1. And you can see the series price here.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: Let me see. The series price was here, but I
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: can't scroll down right now. I believe Milwaukee's about a
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: minus 170 to minus 180 favorite to win the series
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: right now, which is not that crazy. It's not that high.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: But the public is going to be all over Milwaukee.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: So that was my thing. They just saw Milwaukee sweep
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers out of the playoffs, dude. So how could
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee not be overvalued here? You know how I handicap this.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: I look for... Letdown spots, I looked for teams that
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: looked too good most recently. I think that Milwaukee qualifies
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: as that. They looked way too good, sweeping the Dodgers
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: out of the playoffs, or as Tampa had to go,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: whatever it was, six games against a Cleveland team that
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: can't hit. You know what I mean? Even though Cleveland
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: was hitting a little bit better. But obviously, Milwaukee was
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: the way more impressive looking team. Milwaukee had the best
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: record in all of baseball this year. And yeah, I'm
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: not going to deny Milwaukee's a good team. They're one
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: of the best teams in baseball this year. There's no
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: doubt about that. But I just think that the pricing
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: in this series is going to overprice Milwaukee. And I
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: was thinking... Game one might be a place where you
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: want to attack and take the Tampa Bay side here.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: That's what I was thinking, and I was all ready
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: to do it if it was going to be Rasmussen
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: in this game, because I was thinking, well, we're going
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: to get the more experienced starter here. Tampa's ace is
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: going to be on the mound, but that's not going
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: to happen here. They're actually going to throw Rasmussen in
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: game two, so... That shakes things up a little bit
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: because I wanted to do it, man, because I think
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee looked too good against the Dodgers. So that overvalues them. Plus,
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: I think the extra time off actually hurts Milwaukee here.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: And we saw that with the last series, right? Like
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: Cleveland started out hot in that series against Tampa after
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: Tampa had swept the Yankees. I thought Tampa would be
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: overvalued off of that. Plus, Tampa had... I thought a
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: little bit too much time off. And sure enough, I
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: think Cleveland won maybe the first two games, I think,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: Cleveland won. Am I right about that? I think they did.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: They won at least the first one. So I think
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: that did happen. The rest versus rust, I think, is
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: kind of a thing. You have to figure that out.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: And I think that having too much time off can
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: make you rusty. That might be the case with Milwaukee here.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: But mostly, I think it does affect the offense a
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: And that would be kind of where I'd wind up
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: having a look in this game. If it was Rasmussen,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: I'd probably still be kind of looking this way too.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: And that would be towards the under. I think the
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: under is going to make some sense in this game because, again,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: so much time off that can cool off the offenses
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: quite a bit. And the bullpens get rested. So you
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: have two pretty good bullpens here. Milwaukee's is very good.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: And the bullpens are going to be completely rested coming
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: into this game. So the bullpens should be in the
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: best situation they're in all series pretty much in this
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: game where all of the bullpen arms are available here
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: for the teams to use them as they want to.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: So that's what you got going on in this game.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: Now I have some hesitations about it though. Milwaukee is
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: about a minus one 90 favor here. So I do
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: think they're too heavily favored. 69% of the tickets are
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: on Milwaukee, 77% of the cash on Tampa Bay. So
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: the money is, is indicating on Tampa Bay here, and
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree. You can probably get them on the
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: run line. I almost said puck line. I'm in hockey mode.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: Plus one and a half on the run line actually
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: makes sense. as far as playing Tampa Bay in this one.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: If you think this is going to be a low-scoring,
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: close game, and Tampa might have a shot here, and
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: they have the more experienced pitcher on the mound here still,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: even though I like Rasmussen better than Martinez, and there
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: are maybe some drawbacks to Martinez pitching here in Game 1,
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: but with Tampa, you're going to get the more experienced
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: starter on the mound here with Martinez. And you have
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: less of a layoff with Tampa. And they did not
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: look as good as Milwaukee did. So I do think
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: there's value on Tampa Bay here. So I do kind
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: of lean Tampa Bay in this one slightly. You could
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: make it first five too. Because I think Milwaukee does
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: have a bullpen edge here. So if you want to
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: play Tampa on the run line in the first five.
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: Take them like plus a half run in the first five.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: I actually think that makes sense too. I know it
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: means you're going to be going up against Jacob Mizurowski,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: but I do think he is potentially fadeable, though. So,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: you know, this game, I'm all over the place trying
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: to figure out this game, dude. So, yeah, Nick Martinez
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Tampa Bay here. He had a good season,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: you know, much to the dismay, I guess, of the
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: advanced analytics guys, because, oh, my God, he pitches to contact.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: He can't be good. Well, he's been pretty good for...
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: like the majority of his career, I think. And he
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: had a good season this year and he sustained it. 3.1 ERA, 1.09 whip.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: He was also particularly good on the road. 2.38 road ERA.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: So Martinez, yeah, he pitched well and he was even
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: better on the road. Martinez has been... okay in the
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: postseason so far he struggled a bit in his first
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: outing against the Yankees had a nice uh redemption uh
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: game against Cleveland after that though the one thing is
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: Martinez usually he doesn't walk anybody that's his one real
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: advantage he pitches to contact I know but usually he
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: basically walks nobody and his walk rate has been a
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: little bit high during the playoffs three walks and nine
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: innings he might be able to clean that up a
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: little bit though And he does seem to be trending
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: in the right direction, even though he had one more
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: walk in that game against Cleveland. He lasted longer in
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: that game and did better in that game. Picked up
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: a win. So I think Martinez may do a little
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: bit better here, but there are some... negatives here one
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: is that Milwaukee is very familiar with him because he
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: used to be in their division before this year he
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: was on Cincinnati so Milwaukee is familiar with Martinez and
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: the fact that they're familiar with him might help them
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: out a little bit like he's not going to be
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: a mystery to them and his numbers against Milwaukee are
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: I would say they're fine, but he does not dominate Milwaukee.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: They have 122 at-bats against him. He does have a
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: really good 22-4 strikeout walk ratio against him. Again, Martinez
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: hardly walks anybody. He's held them to a 246 batting average,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: which is not bad either, but their OPS is a
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: little bit high against him at 737. William Contreras does
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: hit him pretty well, and so does Yelich. So those
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: guys have a good history against him. Sanchez does as well,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: although he basically never plays at this point. And Mitchell
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: has actually been pretty good against him as well. So
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: some of these hitters in this lineup do, and Frelick, Frelick,
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: however you pronounce his name, they do pretty well against him.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: So they got some power hitting going on against him,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: six home runs against him. So, you know, I don't
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: really totally want to back Martinez here. And I actually
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: don't totally want to back Mizorowski either here, even though
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: he was elite this year. There's no doubt about that.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: He's the best pitcher in baseball, but he's young. And inexperience,
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: and that inexperience has shown in the playoffs so far, man. Yeah,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: he had a great season, no doubt about it. 1.8 ERA,.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: 8 whip. He was really good at home, 1.52 home ERA.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: Playoffs have not been good for him, though. He's got
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: eight and a third innings total across two outings. Milwaukee
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: did win both games, but he didn't last five innings
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: in either of them. He threw way too many pitches
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: in both of them, so he was very inefficient with
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: his pitches. He did have 11 strikeouts, so he's still
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: striking out a lot of guys, but he's been wild.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: He has forward. so far in addition to nine hits allowed.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: So he's been lucky that he hasn't allowed more runs
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: here in these outings. He's been putting a lot of
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: guys on base, dude. He's put 13 earned base runners
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: on in eight and a third innings. So his whip
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: during the playoffs has been really bad. So that's not
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: a great sign, man. He's been a little bit shaky
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: and he's never pitched. on a stage like this before Martinez.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: I don't think really has either, but Martinez is more
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: than 10 years older than him. And Martinez is like
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: pitched like a full career basically. So I think Martinez
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: is going to be less intimidated by the stage than
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: Mizurowski will be. Miz does have good numbers against Tampa.
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: It's a small sample size though. 24 at bats. The
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: only extra base hit is a home run from Diaz.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: They have six strikeouts, two walks, two Oh eight average
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: against them in a six Oh three OPS and, Overall,
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: I do still like the under in this game. We
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: have 82% of the tickets on the over, 78% of
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over, so the money's still indicating
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: towards the under. The total's around 6.5. I don't think
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: you're going to get a 7 on this, and you
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: know I prefer the 7 because it's a key number,
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: but I think with both bullpens being rested, it being
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: a playoff game, I know this will be indoors, so
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: it's not going to be like a cool atmosphere or whatever,
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: but still... you know, a long layoff that could cool
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: off the hitting, plus fully rested bullpens, plus pitching that
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: generally looks pretty good. The under makes more sense than
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: probably anything else in this game, and I actually was
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: considering it, but I think I don't want to do it, man.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: I'd be more inclined to do it if we had
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: Rasmussen on the mound here, but I just told you
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: there were some negatives with these pitchers. Like Martinez, his
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: numbers are, you know, not terrific against Milwaukee, although they're
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: good enough, but they're pretty familiar with him, so that
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: worries me And Miz just hasn't been that good in
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, so that worries me as well. So those
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: are my concerns about it, even though I do still
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: think generally the under makes sense. Total's low for a reason.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: I know you won't get that key number, but like
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: I said, if you play under 6.5 in baseball, it
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: is a winning play long-term, so there is that. As
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: far as the side, like I already said, the money's
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: all coming in on Tampa Bay. Like I said, I
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: think for the side, I think Tampa Bay first five
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: actually makes some sense because you're getting the more experienced starter,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: but he does not have the better matchup numbers here, though.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: But because of the layoff aspect of it, and Milwaukee
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: might come into the game a little bit cold, that
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: helps the case for playing Tampa in the first five here.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: I think Milwaukee's got the better bullpen, so I don't
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: think I'd really want to extend that to the full game.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: Those would be my opinions here. I think the best
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: play in this game is still to take the under.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to do it, though. I thought I'd
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: have some sort of play here, and I thought I'd
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: take advantage of Milwaukee potentially being overvalued here. But if
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee winds up winning this game, you're probably going to
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: get some value on Tampa, possibly in the next game
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: where Rasmussen is going to be on the mound. So
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: maybe that's going to be the spot to actually fire
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: on Tampa there, even though I thought it was going
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: to be game one with the long run. Too long
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: a layoff for Milwaukee, but whatever. I think if that
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: layoff is a problem, it's going to manifest more early
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: in the game too, so that sort of bolsters the
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: Tampa first five lean there. Prefer the under. Don't listen
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: to me. The under is my preference in that game still,
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: but again, I have my reservations with it, and I
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: would have a slight lean towards Tampa as well. in
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: the first five only, though, on the run line. And
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: that's going to do it, man. The two plays today,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: I thought we were going to have one. We're on
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: the Miami Heat. We're basically zigzagging what we saw in
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: game one for each of these teams, and we're grabbing
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: them up against the team in a huge sandwich spot.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: And I decided we're going to play Tulsa in college football,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half. I think the situation is
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: good enough for a play. So let's do it. Uh,
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: those are the two plays. Let's get back on the
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: winning side here. We had a hot week. Um, and then, uh,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: since then we've lost a couple of games. It happens, man. Um,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: want to keep going up and up and up though. Um, Like,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel here. You get notified when I
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: go live. We're going to have a night show here
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: for college football that always goes way too long. Maybe
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: I should do it a little bit earlier than I
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: usually do and not kill myself.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: We're definitely going to have some college football plays. There
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: are definitely a few situations. You saw how many upsets
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: happened last week. So you know my thing. I fade
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: teams off after they pull huge upsets. So we're going
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: to be doing that this week in at least a
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: couple of cases. So Be on the lookout for that. Comment,
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: boost this channel, all the good things. Hype on mobile,
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: however you even do that. I don't even know. I
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: think it's in the comment portion of it. It might
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: only be an Apple thing. I honestly have no clue.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: I've heard people talk about it. I don't know what
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: it is. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. That helps
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: me out as well. Covered in Uke is my ukulele
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: cover channel on YouTube. You can check that out. Patreon.com
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: slash LearnToToad. Really, if you just want to support me
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: over there and Help me out with what I'm doing, man.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: Not just betting on games necessarily, but I feel like
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to give you good information here. I mean,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: this is the stuff that I'm actually doing, so, you know. Like, yeah,
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: my goal is to give you good information here, and everybody,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: you know, just shits on me. I should have done
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: that as part of the opener, man. Like, since this channel,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: you know, has gotten a few more followers and whatever,
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: it's all negative comments just blasting me when I get
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: something wrong, and some of it's not even correct. I've
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: had people say that I was wrong. about certain things
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: or everything about a certain game, which isn't even true. Like,
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: what are you even talking about? Like, yeah, I was
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: wrong about the total on this particular game. I was
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: right about the side on it. You're telling me I
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: was wrong about everything. That's not even true. All right.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: And I was 13 and one in the NFL last week.
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: As far as the pick, I gave out a pick
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: in every game against the spread. Can you beat me
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: at doing that? You could try. I don't think you'll
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: be able to. And can you beat what my record
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: is here? Can you go like, You know, whatever percentage
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: this is, I don't think I'm allowed to say it, actually,
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: or at least we won't be able to clip it.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: TikTok will at least, you know, get angry about it,
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: but whatever. Actually, I don't even know if I'm allowed
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: to say these platforms, but whatever. Speaking of which, I
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: am LearnToToad on Twitter, TikTok, Instagram. You get mad at
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: me for all my Twitter shit posting, but that's what
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: it is. It is what it is, man. But yeah,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: check those out as well. But yeah, it's frustrating, man.
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: It's what it is. People will just come at you
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: when they think you have a bad pick. If you
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: win that pick, they won't come back to you and
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: congratulate you for it, even though I just gave you
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: a winner. If you didn't play it, it's on you, man.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: If you want to fade me, even though I have
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: a good history, I've done this for two decades, I
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: have a good history doing this. You want to try
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: to fade me, that's fine, but my plays have been
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: winners for that long of a period of time, so Yeah,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: you may think that my picks sound insane, but this
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: is the process. This is what works. I'm a situational handicapper.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: It leads me to a lot of contrarian plays, and
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: that's how you get value in the market, by fading.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: It's like the stock market. You're going to be playing
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: on teams that are undervalued in the market and fading
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: teams that are overvalued in the market, essentially. You get
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: what I'm saying. That's the way that it is. It
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: leads to a lot of contrarianism, especially in the more
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: heavily public sports. Anyway, that's my rant there. Patreon.com slash LearnToToad.
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: As I was saying, you can support me there. And
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: there is some bonus Uke stuff there as well, which
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: I got to try to keep up to date. I
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: still got some requests that I got to try to
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: get done. I realize that. I apologize. I've not gotten
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: to them. And what else? Loser cast. I always forget.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, loser cast every Tuesday night. I think that's it. Thanks, guys,
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: for hanging out this morning. I'll be back with college
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: football tonight. The newcomers are going to be real mad
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: at some of my college football plays. Like I said,
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: this is actually how you win, though. Dude, you're going
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: to take a lot of losses in this business, okay?
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: That's the way that it is. But if you run
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: more than 54%, basically, you're going to profit. That's what
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: you need to do. So that's what it is, and yeah.
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think I'm allowed to say it. Maybe I am,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: but have I done that? You know, just look at
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: your screen and just go back and follow what I've
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: done over the last few years. That's all I got
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: to say about that. It's all documented here on the show,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: whatever this went in on Action Network. I've been documenting
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: stuff there for, I don't know, about four years now
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: at least. So there's that too. That's going to do it.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: I'm an honest man, man. I think I'm incapable of lying,
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: to be honest. I'm not trying to mislead anybody or
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: anything like that. This is exactly how I handicap. This
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: is it. This is what you get. I will talk
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: about all my winners. I'll talk about all my losers.
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: That's it. I'll admit when I lose, it's just frustrating.
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: People only focus on that and they will not congratulate
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: you or thank you for your winners, which are more
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: prevalent than your losers. So it's just stupid, man. But
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: if you think you'd do a better job than me,
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: go try. That's what I got to say.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 7: Peace.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 6: If the dark starts talking hand me the phone let
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 6: somebody answer let somebody know you do not have to.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 7: Lose this round alone hold on hold on not tonight
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 7: Not now.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 3: Hold on. Hold on.
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 4: Let me pull you out.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 6: That bad luck bites hard, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 7: Hold on.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 4: Hold on, stay with me now Hold on, hold
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 7: On You're still here now guitar solo