Latest / Brian Thomas / Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: Like on fifty five KRC the talk station, Ay twenty nine.
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  Speaker 2: Here fifty five KRCD Talk station. It's Tuesday. It is
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  Speaker 2: that time of week. We get the alliterative alliterative segment
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  Speaker 2: a speak Brian called the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You
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  Speaker 2: can get your Daniel Davis Deep Dive regularly throughout the
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  Speaker 2: week wherever you get your podcasts. We're fortunate to get
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  Speaker 2: his sage wisdom in terms of things military on Tuesdays
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  Speaker 2: at this time, Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, welcome back
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  Speaker 2: to the morning show.
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  Speaker 1: Sir, all right, always a pleasure to be here. Thanks
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  Speaker 1: for having me.
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  Speaker 2: Are you gotta say?
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  Speaker 1: I told you so early?
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  Speaker 2: Now let me get providing the necessary context, because early on,
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  Speaker 2: when people were enthused that this situation with Iran, the war,
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  Speaker 2: the dropping of bombs, you know, the the d heading
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  Speaker 2: of the regime was gonna be akin to a Maduro
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  Speaker 2: like operation, and you were saying, Nope, nope, not gonna happen.
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  Speaker 2: He's a religious fundamentalist. It's not gonna happen. This is
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  Speaker 2: not a similar operation. You regularly and reminded us. It's
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  Speaker 2: the size of two point four times this side of Texas,
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  Speaker 2: lots of real estate there, and they have a lot
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  Speaker 2: of missiles and drone technology, a lot of it that
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  Speaker 2: we don't know about that will allow them to keep
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  Speaker 2: the Straight of Horror Moves closed. Guess what you were right?
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  Speaker 2: Our American military, with all its might, was not able
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  Speaker 2: to open the Straight of Horror Moves on its own.
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  Speaker 2: And I think that speaks volumes to the problems that
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  Speaker 2: you told us about earlier and earlier on in our discussions.
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  Speaker 2: You were right. If we could open the Straight of
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  Speaker 2: Horror Moves, we would have done so by now. Have
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  Speaker 2: I got that right?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah? Unfortunately, you do have that completely correct.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, if we could have, we would have done it,
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  Speaker 3: And if we could do it now, we would still
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  Speaker 3: do it. We wouldn't be going after any kind of
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  Speaker 3: an agreement of any nature at all, especially one where
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  Speaker 3: we don't have all the levers, so we get to
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  Speaker 3: call the shots and set the terms, and we just
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  Speaker 3: don't have it.
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  Speaker 1: And so Iran is.
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  Speaker 3: Very well aware of the leverage they have and the
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  Speaker 3: inability that we have to take our profound military power
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  Speaker 3: that we have, which is no kidding, it is substantial,
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  Speaker 3: but for this task to try to take a country
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  Speaker 3: and all the things you just mentioned there, it's just
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  Speaker 3: not enough, no matter how much anybody may wish it
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  Speaker 3: to be so. And so now we're face to face
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  Speaker 3: with that stark reality, and we're gonna have to deal
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  Speaker 3: with something that, Brian, we just haven't had to deal
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  Speaker 3: with in a generation, which is that we don't just
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  Speaker 3: get to call the shots and somebody else has leverage
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  Speaker 3: and we're gonna have to give something to get something.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think this speaks volumes to about modern warfare,
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  Speaker 2: does it not that a country like Iran, or literally
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  Speaker 2: any country on the planet, how drug cartels use drones.
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  Speaker 2: These drones have been a massive sea change in military operations.
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  Speaker 2: A country like Iran, with thousands of drones hidden away
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  Speaker 2: in some small buildings and scattered about, can literally blow
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  Speaker 2: up multi billion dollar ships floating around out there in
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  Speaker 2: the straight of horor moves. I mean, that's a fact, Jack,
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  Speaker 2: isn't it.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah?
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  Speaker 3: And that's that's even one of the lesser issues here,
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  Speaker 3: because it's not even though that this drones can hide
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  Speaker 3: in buildings in everywhere, it's that they can underground. And
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  Speaker 3: because Iran has had the foresight to perceive that they
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  Speaker 3: at some point being a war with the United States.
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  Speaker 3: They spent the last twenty years building these underground bunkers,
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  Speaker 3: and we just showed a graphic on our show this
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  Speaker 3: past week of one specific of these underground facilities called
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  Speaker 3: the Yaz Yazd and it's got a graphic that shows
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  Speaker 3: how it's under this huge mountain complex, under multiple layers
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  Speaker 3: of shifting granite formations that have formed The course over
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  Speaker 3: millions of years is way below that. So it is
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  Speaker 3: a physical impossibility for even a nuclear weapon to get
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  Speaker 3: at it. And that's where they have at least thirty
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  Speaker 3: of these things that are operational. According to US intelligence.
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  Speaker 3: You just can't knock them out. Especially you can't just
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  Speaker 3: defeat Iran with airpower loan. It's a physical impossibility and unforcedly. Brian,
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  Speaker 3: part of my frustration is that was well known ahead
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  Speaker 3: of time by our military experts, buyer intelligence, and it
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  Speaker 3: just puzzles me why we went ahead anyway.
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  Speaker 2: That's a legitimate question to ask, and I think another
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  Speaker 2: legitimate question to asking because you've got great inside resources
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  Speaker 2: and got to applaud you to that or for that,
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump has already signed on to this agreement. This
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  Speaker 2: memoran of understanding is going to set the terms for
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  Speaker 2: US over the next sixty days to literally negotiate the
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  Speaker 2: most difficult components of whatever we can negotiate with the Iranians.
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  Speaker 2: But we're going to apparently open up the straight We're
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  Speaker 2: gonna let them use their ports. That part over with.
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  Speaker 2: Have you read the agreement? I can't find it anywhere,
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis, Well.
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  Speaker 1: It hasn't been agreed or hasn't been rased anywhere by
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  Speaker 1: the US. That's been the point of frustration.
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  Speaker 3: And I was just looking scanning just before we came
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  Speaker 3: on the air here, and I'm talking about a lot
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  Speaker 3: of President Trump's biggest allies and biggest supporters. There's a
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  Speaker 3: lot of frustration because we keep talking about this deal
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  Speaker 3: he signed that. He keeps telling everybody how it's better
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  Speaker 3: than the Obama deal and it's incredible in all this,
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  Speaker 3: but no details, none whatsoever.
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  Speaker 1: Meanwhile, the Uranian side has.
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  Speaker 3: Released what it says is the text that both sides
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  Speaker 3: signed on to an agreed and believe me, it is
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  Speaker 3: nothing like what President pardon me, what President Trump is saying,
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  Speaker 3: and it's got a lot That's one of the reasons
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  Speaker 3: is supporters are frustrated because they're saying, surely this is
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  Speaker 3: not really the text. It's misinformation, right, because they say until.
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  Speaker 1: You release it, we don't know.
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  Speaker 3: And this is the problem of it since this was announced,
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  Speaker 3: is that you have the Iranian side with what their
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  Speaker 3: version is, and if their version is right, it is
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  Speaker 3: a profound strategic failure and loss for us. And it's
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  Speaker 3: hard to imagine President Trump signed on one of those things.
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  Speaker 3: And the alternative is is that later on President Trump says,
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  Speaker 3: here's my version, and it's.
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  Speaker 1: Different, and then we don't have an agreement at all.
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  Speaker 1: So there's gonna be some fireworks.
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  Speaker 3: Let me just say, one way or another, there's gonna
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  Speaker 3: be fireworks when President Trump finally releases what he says
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  Speaker 3: is the mutually agreed decision either in a run or
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  Speaker 3: on our side, because I just don't see how those
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  Speaker 3: things work together.
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  Speaker 2: Well, and the conflicting information we're getting on the Trump side,
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  Speaker 2: we're saying there's not going to be any tolls. The Urritians,
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  Speaker 2: I think, are calling the fees now, so we have
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  Speaker 2: some some manical nonsense going on in there, but they're
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  Speaker 2: gonna insist on charging boats to get through. That's a
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  Speaker 2: situation that didn't exist before the bomb started dropping on Iran.
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  Speaker 2: Now I kind of scratched my head over that. Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump says, we're not nobody's gonna be paying any any
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  Speaker 2: fees or tolls or whatever you want protection moneies like
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  Speaker 2: I like to refer to it. But if they insist
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  Speaker 2: on that, that's gonna be a real game changer. I
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  Speaker 2: can't imagine him agreeing to that. But here's here's the
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  Speaker 2: question I want to throw in there with that. They
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  Speaker 2: Trump and others keep referring to this window, this sixty
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  Speaker 2: day window to negotiate all these finer, more problematic points
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  Speaker 2: with the Iranians. I am certain my guests chie leaf
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  Speaker 2: reading they're gonna that'll be extended because the devil's in
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  Speaker 2: the details, and they well, I'm sorry, we couldn't hammered out.
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  Speaker 2: Aren't we just trying to get through the November election
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  Speaker 2: with relief on gas prices? Is this really boiled down
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  Speaker 2: to that the American people don't have the willpower to
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  Speaker 2: withstand a longer term battle of attrition. We keep the
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  Speaker 2: ports in the Iran shut down and keep their accomanomy
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  Speaker 2: on its knees over the long term, if we could
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  Speaker 2: last that out, maybe we could win or I mean
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  Speaker 2: that seems our only option right now is a long
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  Speaker 2: term keep them shut down strategy.
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  Speaker 3: Well, if that's all there was, if it was just
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  Speaker 3: worried about keeping the Iran inside in pain and maybe
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  Speaker 3: eventually they would succumb, that would be one thing, and
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  Speaker 3: you could maybe go on a long term.
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  Speaker 1: We can't handle that.
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  Speaker 3: Our economy cannot handle sixty more days of the straight
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  Speaker 3: up ward moves being closed down. I forget about it
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  Speaker 3: into November or anything longer than that. And that's what
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  Speaker 3: Iran is calculating. They're well aware that the pain from
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  Speaker 3: our blockade is profound. And I've talked to a number
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  Speaker 3: of Iranian sources and every one of them said, it
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  Speaker 3: is no joke.
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  Speaker 1: This is really hurting us.
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  Speaker 3: It's causing inflation, it's causing a lot of unemployment, a
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  Speaker 3: lot of shortages of.
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  Speaker 1: Key like medicines and other kind of things.
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  Speaker 3: They say it is serious, but they say that we're
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  Speaker 3: used to that, we've done it before.
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  Speaker 1: We can do it again.
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  Speaker 3: But we calculate you can't that to start the pain
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  Speaker 3: on you is too great. And you mentioned in there
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  Speaker 3: about this issue about the charging tolls. You ran definitely
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  Speaker 3: says that's part of the agreement. We will have the fees,
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  Speaker 3: as we call them. The Iranians say that Trump is
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  Speaker 3: a Greech somewhere between ten and twelve billion dollars upfront
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  Speaker 3: releasing of frozen funds. US says, no, we have it.
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  Speaker 3: The Iranian side has said you're going to give us
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  Speaker 3: three hundred billion dollars in reparations. President Trump says, no,
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  Speaker 3: we're not. So those are profoundly incompatible. And then there's
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  Speaker 3: the biggest issue of all, and that's the Israeli situation,
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  Speaker 3: because Israeli people are furious that apparently that Yahoo's going
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  Speaker 3: to be forced to stop operations, to withdraw from Lebanon,
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  Speaker 3: which they say is integral to their national security. And
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  Speaker 3: they say, we're not going to abide by that if
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  Speaker 3: that's the term, because it's our national security. So how
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  Speaker 3: does all this fit together?
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  Speaker 1: Brian?
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  Speaker 3: That's why I say there will be fireworks whenever Trump finally.
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  Speaker 1: Releases whatever he says are the terms.
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  Speaker 2: Wow, there's so much to take in on that, and
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  Speaker 2: none of it honestly looks very good. I just keep
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  Speaker 2: going back. The price of gasoline obviously is really impacting
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  Speaker 2: the American people aren't willing to deal with just the
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  Speaker 2: increase in price of gasoline.
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  Speaker 1: But as you.
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  Speaker 2: Suggest, this is a global issue that's straight is so
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  Speaker 2: vitally important to the global economy, and maybe there's something
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  Speaker 2: to be learned on that down the road. Perhaps in
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  Speaker 2: the future we can do a workaround. Maybe we can
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  Speaker 2: get more pipelines to get the oil out of there
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  Speaker 2: in ways that don't require the strait of horror moves.
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  Speaker 2: Because Daniel Davis, the IR audience know that at any
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  Speaker 2: moment in time, if somebody rubs them the wrong way
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  Speaker 2: or they get a whatever objective they want to achieve,
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  Speaker 2: they get to shut it down again.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, you've broken the rubicon here. And they thought about this.
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  Speaker 3: This has been a concern for forty seven years that
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  Speaker 3: they could do this, but they never did do it
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  Speaker 3: because they calculated the cost would be too high or whatever.
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  Speaker 3: But once it was thrust upon them, that was the
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  Speaker 3: only leverage they had. But now then they've used it
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  Speaker 3: and they've seen how successful it is and how we
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  Speaker 3: can't force it out. I guarante ge that if they
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  Speaker 3: get rubbed the wrong way, that will be not far
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  Speaker 3: from their mind. That will be like right up front.
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  Speaker 3: So we're in a new age here, and something's gonna
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  Speaker 3: have to be different. But it's going to be many
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  Speaker 3: years before we can get to those workarounds.
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  Speaker 1: But we got to get this deal solved first.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, fair enough, Now the other component I want to
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  Speaker 2: talk with you real briefly about Daniel Davis, the China
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  Speaker 2: and India issue. Now, as I understand it, China has
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  Speaker 2: a vested interest with keeping the Iranian regime.
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  Speaker 1: The Indians.
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  Speaker 2: They're happy with the Irani regime as well, because of
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  Speaker 2: course there are thorns in the United States side, but
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  Speaker 2: they've also they're probably being hit harder than anybody else,
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  Speaker 2: as I've learned China, for example, with the stoppage of
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  Speaker 2: the flow of oil out of Iran. It seems to me,
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  Speaker 2: why don't they have some vested interest in maybe wiping
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  Speaker 2: out the regime themselves or otherwise convincing the Iranians that
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  Speaker 2: it's important for them to stop this nonsense so they
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  Speaker 2: can get their oil and we can return to some
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  Speaker 2: regular order.
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  Speaker 1: Well, let me tell you about.
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  Speaker 3: What the Chinese have done, because they also have foreseen
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  Speaker 3: this possibility, and they had a massive strategic petroleum reserves.
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  Speaker 1: I forget the numbers that.
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  Speaker 3: Ours are, but there are like five times larger than
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  Speaker 3: ours are.
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  Speaker 1: So what they have done is nobody expected to do.
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  Speaker 3: Which is why the lid's been kept on or somewhere
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  Speaker 3: even close to one hundred dollars a barrel since this started.
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  Speaker 3: Is because they have started importing like five million barrels
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  Speaker 3: of oil per day less than they did before, choosing
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  Speaker 3: instead to draw down their patroleum reserve because they had
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  Speaker 3: so much, because they bought at a very very low price,
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  Speaker 3: so their calculation is, hey, let's just use that for
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  Speaker 3: now instead of paying this higher price we would get
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  Speaker 3: on the open market.
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  Speaker 1: Well, that has helped.
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  Speaker 3: All of us because now then this otherwise like twenty
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  Speaker 3: million barrel today shortfall that would have happened has been
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  Speaker 3: reduced to about fifteen. And then you have demand destruction
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  Speaker 3: in other places, and the some of stuff going on
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  Speaker 3: in India and Indonesia, in South Korea, Japan where they're
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  Speaker 3: already cutting back.
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  Speaker 1: So all that together has kind of kept the lid on.
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  Speaker 1: But if China decides we're not going to do that anymore,
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  Speaker 1: we're not going to draw that down now, then.
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  Speaker 3: Where everybody has a huge spike in global oil process
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  Speaker 3: because there's just not enough supply. But there's a limit
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  Speaker 3: to how far China can go on that, as there
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  Speaker 3: is these other kinds of things as well, And so
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  Speaker 3: I think that as I'm reading the Tvas, so to speak,
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  Speaker 3: Johina is saying, all right, we're going to go a
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  Speaker 3: pretty good period of time on this, but then there's
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  Speaker 3: going to have to be something done. And I think
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  Speaker 3: they have calculated the damage to American prestige is worth
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  Speaker 3: the draw down here because Trump is out there flapping
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  Speaker 3: in the wind and China can actually say, hey, we've
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  Speaker 3: been trying to help out. You know, we're trying to
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  Speaker 3: you know, do you guys have favor here? But that's
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  Speaker 3: got a limit, and it won't put pressure on Iran.
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  Speaker 3: They'll put pressure on us alone with all these other
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  Speaker 3: people that are suffering, like in Europe, Black and Asia,
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  Speaker 3: like in Africa. So I think that their calculation is
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  Speaker 3: it's going to be putting more pressure on us.
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  Speaker 1: Not less.
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  Speaker 2: Truly appreciate your analysis on this, as I have from
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  Speaker 2: well since we've been talking together on all matters, and
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  Speaker 2: you've been prescient on the whole thing, and I applaud
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  Speaker 2: you for your accuracy of information. As bad as the
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: news is, you've been a cold water dose reality and
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: somebody needs support on people sometimes.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel, Yeah, we do.
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  Speaker 3: We got to get this thing off the table. Brian,
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  Speaker 3: and I'm advocating right now that the President trunk just.
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  Speaker 1: Forget about a deal. Don't just say, hey, we've caused
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  Speaker 1: him so much damage.
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  Speaker 3: We won he said that before, and then leave, because
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  Speaker 3: then you don't have to worry about are there any reparations,
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  Speaker 3: are there any money given up front? You just leave,
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  Speaker 3: You take the blockade away because we need that open,
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  Speaker 3: and then we just have to live with the consequences
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  Speaker 3: because otherwise he's going to have a fire storm at
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  Speaker 3: home and we'll have to see how he navigates that.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: There's no question about it. Popcorn remains out Daniel Davis
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Deep Dive. Wherever you get your podcasts, find Daniel Davis
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: and tune into the fifty five Cavy Kearrase Morning Show
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: every Tuesday at eight thirty. Take Care of My Friend.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: We'll talk next week.