Latest / STR Unpacked / What is happening? The data never lies!

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What is happening? The data never lies! · STR Unpacked

• Ben: and welcome back to Short-Term Rentals Unpacked. Today diving into one of the most important questions facing the European short-term rental industry right now. ⁓ What actually happening in the data? We hear a lot of opinions about regulation, supply and pricing, but today looking at the numbers. Joining me is Sarah Nan DuPré from AirDNA, one of the leading ⁓ short-term rental platforms globally. tracking millions of listings and performance trends across Europe and beyond. Sarah works closely with the data and research teams, analyzing how supply and pricing and demand are evolving across the short-term rental market. Sarah, welcome to the show. Sarah DuPre: Hi Ben, thanks so much for having me. I'm so excited buddy about this new venture of yours. I'm really really honored to be here. So thanks so much. Ben: Well, I do have to blame you. Obviously, you and Leo had me on the check-in and I thought, I need to get in on this actually. This is my calling. So I do actually blame you for this whole thing, I'm afraid, Sarah. Sarah DuPre: I'll take the blame. We love it. It's one the best things that you will ever start and you're going to absolutely get stuck in. So I'm glad to have you on the other side. Ben: Amazing. Yeah, amazing, right? Well, thank you for coming on. means a lot that you're returning the favor. But before we get into some of the specific data trends, I was just wondering if you could give us a quick overview of what you're seeing in a European short-term rental market. Sarah DuPre: Yeah, sure, absolutely. as always in the data, it's supermarket dependent. But as on the whole, what we are noticing for 2026 is that things are starting to normalize. When I say normalize, I'm talking about in most cases, we're not. We're not down to pre-COVID levels of low yet, because we had, course, like pre-COVID and then we had this crazy COVID, which like nobody's going to think about. And then we had 2023, 2024, 2025 even with a lot of this pent up demand. And so the short-term real market was absolutely booming, not just in Europe, but everywhere. And especially in Europe where we were locked down and we're used to traveling much more frequently. So for sure, there was a lot of that pent up demand in 2026. What we're starting to see is Ben: Okay. Sarah DuPre: that ⁓ both on ADR and occupancy, the trends are really showing somewhere in the middle. So we're showing kind of more of getting closer to a course correction, not quite at 2019, 2018 levels yet. But for sure, the year is starting off much more slowly than we've seen in the past three years, certainly. And particularly for operators, I know it's something that has them concerned and worried. doesn't concern us because for us it's a market correction. It's an economic cycle and we've been telling people for three years, don't get used to this demand. Don't get used to these ADRs and this level of everything and hub of activity because it's gonna course correct eventually. The good news is that if you're an operator and you're still doing well currently. That's a good sign because it means that you have a sustainable business. Or even if you have a few listings and you're an individual host, if you're still doing well currently, this we believe is the new normal and getting much closer to the new normal based on the trends that we're seeing in the data. Ben: just find it so incredible that the market hasn't corrected fully from Covid yet. it's what almost six years have gone to a day that we started getting into all that. I just find that absolutely incredible. So, sorry go on. Sarah DuPre: I I think what I was going to say, think it's well been like there were basically, you know, when we think about COVID, we think, great, COVID was 2020. COVID was 2020 to 2022. Like people were in like, not necessarily locked down, but travel restriction was heavy. People were scared to travel. There was a lot of regulations around the travel. So it was basically two years where travel pretty much stopped except for local tourism. Then if we look at 2023 in particular, 2024, even trickling into 2025, there was a lot of that pent up demand. but we also are seeing another trend, is the ability to work remotely. So during COVID that opened up a lot of people's minds and eyes, whether that's them within the same previous company, but there's also been a max ex, Mac mass exodus. ⁓ Ben: Yeah. Shushushushu. Sarah DuPre: of workers who during COVID were able to work from home, then their company said, come back. And they've said, no, thank you. I'll look for somewhere else where I can be remote because they've gotten used to this different kind of lifestyle. Or maybe people who used to live in the city center during COVID were renting an Airbnb in the outskirts and they've decided actually it's way better here. you know, cost of living is lower. It's a lower pace, a slower piece of life. I'm loving it. My kids are happy. My partner's happier. Like there's more less stressed and I don't need to go into the city every day. So I'm going to look for something that's fully remote. there's a big... But you know, there's a lot of factors there in some of that pent up demand. Some is pent up demand and some is just changes in people's ability to travel and or extend travel. So doing like a longer weekend where maybe they have a hybrid work schedule where they can, you know, are only in the office three days a week or something that opens up a lot more for travel. And so that's why I say we're not going to probably get back to totally 2018-2019 levels. ⁓ We do expect there to be some of this hybrid just due to the changing conditions. post-COVID. So just worth the caveat there. Ben: Yeah, no, it makes total sense. So looking at ED and A's data across Europe today, what are the biggest trends that you're seeing in pricing and supply across the short-term rental market? Sarah DuPre: Yeah, sure. So overall, it's dropping for the most part, Especially when we look at ADRs. And when I say dropping, we're even looking at comparing it to 2019. some of the ADRs, and again, market dependent. So there are about 15 markets where in particular, like we studied 50 markets where heavy regulations were put into place. 15 of those have a really clear graphic where you've got Ben: Really? Sarah DuPre: ⁓ Drop in supply is fairly drastic, so much more into the double digits in terms of like that drop. And then the ADR growth as well, completely into the double digits. So there's some areas like Barcelona, ⁓ there's some areas in Croatia, there's like seven markets in Croatia as well that were highly affected by this, which was surprising to me. But overall demand is dropping, for example, in some of those markets in Croatia where historically it was growing, Ben: Okay. Sarah DuPre: and growing, think part of that is also due to the fact that like ADR started rising there. So originally when Croatia became famous, was like a mix of Game of Thrones and hey, this is like a much cheaper place to travel. You've still got the good weather. You've got the Mediterranean. Well, it's not the Adriatic, which is, you know, comparable to the Mediterranean. So it's for like Brits and other Northern Europeans. It's like, great. We can have a cheaper holiday. Like all we care about is the sun. We don't speak the local language when we go to Italy or Portugal or whatever anyway. So we don't care. ⁓ Ben: interesting. Yes, yes, yes, yes, Sarah DuPre: not necessarily there for the cultural bit, we just want sun and decent food and you know a cheaper price and so that's what it was providing. And now we see markets that are much more in like Albania is starting to take some of that but even Albania is getting getting higher in terms of like ADRs. ⁓ over time. So definitely we're seeing that in the trends. And then when it comes to regulation, we notice that particularly in the cities. So there are some cities that have had ⁓ really strict regulation in place where you notice it. So Barcelona, Amsterdam, for example, there's a big tipping point in terms of drop in supply and rising ADRs to meet that drop. In the rest of the top 50 markets that we analyze that we know there's been heavy regulation implemented. It was minimal. There were some which were either medium or neutral, which to me was shocking. I think that what that really means is regulators... They haven't got it all figured out yet. So I don't know if it's because, like in Barcelona, I know that they started fining people really huge fines. If you were listing and you didn't have a license or you were renting without license, especially listing on the OTAs, right? So there's also potentially like a... Ben: Yeah. Sarah DuPre: a market that nobody is really capturing that is not necessarily in the OTAs. So I know, like I know plenty of friends who like live in Barcelona and they'll just like post stuff on Instagram, you know? It's like, hey, friends of friends and things like that. So it's still happening. It's just more of an underground market and it's more of people you know are friends of somebody that you know and acquaintances rather than kind of this like stranger OTA thing. But I don't know if it if that makes it any different or better. Ben: Yeah, yeah. Sarah DuPre: To be honest. Ben: Yeah, it's interesting to say about like I know of a what's that group in Barcelona for literally just doing that right. Just as a point in Croatia actually, I just as a side question because I was there in October last year and I was in a pretty local part like I wasn't on the coast. I was inland in Croatia and it was more expensive than Spain. Like if you went to the local supermarket and like the salaries there are about, average salary is about half I believe in that area. So I just wondered if what you're seeing in Croatia, do you think some of that is down to cost of living? Sarah DuPre: yet. Yeah, some of it could be down to cost of living. remember, I I went to Croatia like four years ago for the first time and I remember being shocked. Like I expected, because I was sold this narrative that it's so much cheaper and it's gonna be way cheaper than Spain. It was more expensive than Spain, especially things that I care about like wine was more expensive. Ben: Yeah. Yeah. Sarah DuPre: was sold this like narrative that it's going to be so much cheaper and... you know, it's like the Mediterranean on the Adriatic and it's this kind of lifestyle and it's going to be super cheap and it was not. ⁓ particularly food, wine, as you mentioned, even grocery stores were way more expensive. And for sure, accommodation. I mean, I remember like booking an accommodation that was way worse, I guess, in terms of the look of it for what I would have expected for the price. So it still seemed quite unprofessional at the time to me, the market, and they were charging a lot for that property too. Ben: Yeah. Yeah, yeah, I mean, I love Croatia. I've been a few times now and I just think it's such a unique country, but it is. Yeah, but your experience is not a million miles away from mine, should we say, the times that I've been. So kind of moving away from Croatia. Are you seeing evidence that increased supply or new entrants are creating a pricing pressure for hosts across European markets. Sarah DuPre: Now, what's interesting is that for the professional operators, so those that are ⁓ operating more than 10 units, let's say, which for us is professional or semi-professional, have two different metrics of looking at things. So what's interesting is when we look at ADR, so average 90 rates, they've dropped by 1.8%. across the board in most markets. However, this is where it gets interesting. We have another metric which is called the repeat rent index. What this means is that properties that were on the market at this same time last year or at the same time two years ago, so properties that have been most likely, these are like managed properties by property managers, ⁓ but those that have been in operation for a while, ⁓ we're seeing like seven and a half percent ⁓ higher ADRs for those. Ben: Okay. Sarah DuPre: So there we're seeing seven and a half percent 80 yard growth, which means that on the whole, what really is happening is new entrants are coming in. They're panicking because they were sold the dream of 2024, 2023, 2025. And they're coming in and they're not getting booked as often and they're dropping prices. Whereas the operators who have been in the market for a while understand they typically have access to data. They typically have access to competitive intelligence. And so they have the confidence to sit there and say, no, we're going to hold our price because in a lot of markets, what's really happening. is that there's a shortening of the booking window. operators who have access to the data that they need recognize that and they're able to confidently hold the price whereas smaller operators or new entrants to the market are panicking and dropping price. Ben: Do think there's an argument there that you could also show that data shows the value of reviews, having a property with 50, 60 reviews versus none to five, for example? Sarah DuPre: It absolutely does. And we definitely notice a difference in super new properties. So before they have any reviews or when they have fewer than 10 reviews, let's say the average daily rates of those properties tend to be much lower until they get that sort of baseline. And that's also why we notice that prices are dropped because when you're, when you're bringing on a new property, especially if you don't have any other properties. So this is another caveat and important dimension. You might have a new property on, but if your profile has 80 listings on it and overall, Ben: Boom. Mm. Sarah DuPre: your rating is good or people can go read the ratings for your other properties, then that makes a difference. Whereas if you're an individual operator or you have one or two properties, that's going to be tougher when you're bringing on a new property because you as a manager or as a host don't have a track record for people to check. So it's sometimes less about the property itself and much more about the reputation of the host overall across those units. So if you're a brand new host, you're launching a new property, you basically have to price cut because people are gonna need to take a chance on you and I do that like probably once a year I'm like this property looks nice this person's trying I'm just gonna give it a try most of the time it's been fine it's been a really good experience I did have one which I know if you've heard about this one about the car park in Paris what a disaster that was one where I took a chance and it did not nail so no Ben: Yeah, it does not sound like it did. Sarah DuPre: So it depends, but for sure in order to get people in the door you have to lower rates ⁓ when you're just launching a new property and particularly if you're not a professional where you don't have that track record. Ben: Interesting. So I guess kind of we just sort of answered this, but I think it's worth kind of going into anyway. Like when you isolate the experienced operators in the data, do they appear to be maintaining stronger pricing power compared to newer hosts entering the market? Sarah DuPre: Yeah, they definitely are. So in fact, what we're noticing there, that's part of that repeat rent index. So basically, we're noticing ADRs for professional operators up 7.5 to 7.8%, depending on the market across the board in Europe. Whereas, yeah, overall, the ADRs have dropped by 1.8%. So what that really means is that there's a compensation there from those new entrants versus the professionals, which means the new entrants actually Ben: Mm. Yeah, yeah. Sarah DuPre: most likely like 5 % below even further of what the ADR has been. Ben: So it's never been harder to start in our industry. It's basically the message. Well, not the message, but the data might imply it. Yeah. Sarah DuPre: It is an. particularly in Europe, right? Like there's so much, even in smaller towns now, there's so much regulation and there's so many hoops to jump through that it makes it, I won't say impossible, but really difficult for an individual operator in most markets to actually be compliant. Whether that is, and sometimes they launch and they're not compliant, but because they don't know what they're supposed to be doing. It's easy, like you're operating an Airbnb in Barcelona and you don't have a license, like this is pretty known because it's been in the news. But imagine, Ben: Yeah. Yeah. Sarah DuPre: There's lots of towns, like I didn't even think about this outside of Barcelona, like outside of the city. I was thinking, great, okay, I can go to a town like an hour outside. Because I wanted to purchase a second home, but I basically wanted to do the classic, like, okay, I want the mortgage to somewhat pay for itself, so I'll do a short term rental. And when I started looking into it, like almost every single town. in the surround, almost every single town in Catalunya essentially that has like supply of houses, even neighborhoods that are like an hour and a half away from the city, they still are considered like a tension zone. And so it's basically impossible to get a license. You have to buy a property that already has a license. And even still, it's not guaranteed that those are gonna be renewed and they're valid for five years. So you pay a premium for a property with a license that's currently operating. But then I also always ask myself like, if this is profitable, why are you selling it? Ben: Yeah, that's a bad question, isn't it? Sarah DuPre: So yeah, and it depends, right? I've spoken with some, when I was looking originally, I spoke with some of the owners and it was like, ⁓ I have five of these and ⁓ I'm retiring and I need to get out some of the capital. Okay, fine. That I'll buy. I'll buy that argument that they a lump sum of something. So they're selling the properties in general. But I'm always leery of stuff like that. So it does make you wonder like what's happening here that there's so many with a tourist license on the market. It could be that there's no. ⁓ I don't know. Like so what he thought would it be it would be in Spanish, like basically like there's no security from a legal standpoint if you're operating an Airbnb in this area of Spain in particular. And so a lot of investors like in Barcelona, they would just all left even midterm rentals. ⁓ Ben: Yeah. Sarah DuPre: They've all left. Gone. Ben: Well, that's... I just find it. Sarah DuPre: selling all their properties. Ben: I I can talk about this subject for a long time, but like, just find it genuinely amazing that, you know, okay, Catalonia is a very rich part of Spain and in general, Europe terms is a rich part of Europe, but it still has an incredibly high percentage of its income that comes from tourism. you know, Spain as a country, it's the second highest percentage of GDP relied on tourism. think it's about 15%. And it seems that historically, they're irresponsible with what they had. think they made some poor decisions. They've ended up in a position they're in. But it seems like the needle was just swung way too far the other way. And one of the, so don't know if you know this about me, I used to live in Spain. And one of the things that used to amaze me about it is all of the tourism is concentrated in one place, even in Barcelona. I always think there's a paradox in Barcelona where everybody knows that there's a chance you'll get mugged. So all of the tourists are scared to leave the tourism areas, even though that's the part of Barcelona that you're most likely to get mugged in. it's like, I always think the best example of this is like Rana Sagrada Familia, where it's like the roads around Sagrada Familia are incredibly touristy. And when you go one block in any direction and it's completely local. Sarah DuPre: That's the worst place you can be. ⁓ Ben: But I think it's a perfect metaphor for Spain. What annoys me so much about it is like Catalonia is a great example. Why are they trying to police the towns that don't have tourism? Why are they not trying to promote people? Because Spain's amazing and it has so much incredible things there, But yeah, sorry, I've got on a slight tangent, man. Sarah DuPre: I don't get it. Oh, I keep up with my TNN all day. Yeah, a capitalist, I've somehow ended up in a country that hates business. I don't know what I'm doing here. I guess I'm here for the sun. I don't know. Ben: Yeah, interesting one, isn't it? Well, ⁓ I'm sure we'll grab a Kenya when I'm next in town and we can discuss it. Maybe a few Kenyans by the time of the things. ⁓ So on that, so these are tied to regulation like Amsterdam, Berlin, Barcelona, Florence. Does the data show any noticeable impact on pricing dynamics for hosts? Sarah DuPre: Yeah. Yeah, I mean, again, this is where it gets super interesting. So not really if we compare it to 2019, 2018, right? So this is where again, where we're seeing that same trend, where the the line of ADR is basically smack dab in the middle of what it was the past three years versus pre-COVID. So the trend line is starting out here. Doesn't mean it's going to stay there, but so far in the first few months of the year, that's where it's sitting Ben: Okay. Sarah DuPre: for 2026. And so again, if we're comparing it to the last three years, of course people are panicking. And they think it's all the regulation and all these things when actually we're not even at 2019 2018 levels. in any of these markets. It's the same trend across ADRs. And that's also the case even in like Barcelona especially, which like this is a market I know well, which is why I always come back to it. But where, I mean, they've basically said we will outlaw every single Airbnb by 2028. Like if that is not gonna panic people, I don't know what will. And still the demand there has not. driven up ADRs as much as it was in the last few years. So this is also something that we need to, well, at least, and also because there's that repeat rent index metric that we talked about as well. So there is that caveat of like professional operators are holding out. But overall, across all of these markets, what we're seeing is the same trend. overall in Europe. there are some here absolutely, like if we compare now versus 2020 or 2019, then yes, there has been, there have been major changes there. But again, ⁓ We're still overall doing better in most of these markets when it comes to ADR. That supply has dropped drastically, especially in sort of those top 15. for this podcast day, well, my team, my beautiful research team, who's amazing, they had a look at the top 50 markets where we know that there's been some pretty heavy regulations that have come into play in Europe. For me, the thing that surprised me the most was that only 15 of them have had any interesting shifts in supply compared with ADR. So in the markets, the impact, which is when we look at the impact of regulations coming into play at RDNA, what we think about is how has it impacted supply and how has it impacted the average daily rate? So. Ben: Okay. Sarah DuPre: It's a classic supply and demand. So if supply goes way down, then that's going to drive up rates is the hypothesis. And that's how we look at the effectiveness of regulation. So when we looked at these top 50 markets, 15, there was a drastic change. So Barcelona, Amsterdam, as examples. However, in the other markets, so the other 35, they were all classified either as medium impact or neutral. So neutral meaning like no change, no statistically significant change at all, even though regulations were put in place, which means one of two things. Either they're not policing those regulations, so like they're not actually being enforced or... people just don't care. I'm not sure which it is, but in the data, we're not seeing anything meaningful in a lot of those places, which for me was surprising. Ben: That's so interesting. That's so sick. I just wouldn't have guessed that. I would have thought that you'd seen like a pretty significant drop in supply, right? And an increase in ADR. I would have, that would have been my guess, but. Sarah DuPre: Yeah, I would have thought exactly the same thing. But no, I mean, I have the, I don't know if I can share, I can share a screen on here now for those that are watching us. Ben: Ha! Let's give it a go and see what happens. It's new to me, Sarah. Sarah DuPre: Let me try. Can you see that? ⁓ great. That's nice, isn't it? I was going to talk about data, I told you my research team is absolutely incredible. They were like, I don't know if I can get this by the time you do your interview. then they'd like, I woke up to all this stuff. So they're absolutely amazing. So this for me is paramount and kind of understanding what's really happening. So when we look at all these markets, like Berlin obviously is one of the biggest ones. But also in, there's several markets on here in Croatia where we noticed that that Ben: ⁓ look at that! I love an AirDNA graphic! ⁓ Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Sarah DuPre: ⁓ the change in supply. on the, just for those who are looking ⁓ at the screen here, on the left-hand side, we have the change in the, the percent change in the number of listings, so active listings, which normally when there's regulations put in place, this drastically reduces the total number of listings available. In every single scenario here, it's over 20%. In places like Berlin, there was a drop of almost 60%, which is significant. And then on the right-hand side, what we're looking at is the percent change Ben: Mmm, yeah. Sarah DuPre: in the average daily rate between 2025 and 2019. So in a lot of these markets, so Berlin is one, Havar, I hope I pronounced that right. Correlation listeners, please correct me. But yeah, I mean, those are both above 80 % in terms of the changes in ADR. So there, the demand, like the reduction in supply. the ADR has outpaced the reduction in supply even. So there's some where it's correlated and some where it's not necessarily correlated. Because otherwise we would see like kind of a perfect V and this isn't what we see on this chart. So. Ben: Yada yada. So interesting, is it? mean, it just shows that, I think, and I'm guilty of this and sort of questions that I've been asking you, but so thank you for providing this. But I think it shows that we try to, in a way, you know, regulations coming to all of Europe, how does it affect all of Europe? And it just shows that we have so many nuanced individual markets that make up, and each one has their own individual story. So it's difficult for us to kind of blanket a one answer. Sarah DuPre: Yeah. Ben: Right, that's so interesting. Thank you for sharing that because I do find that stuff genuinely interesting and I think Hvar is a really, really interesting one because I guess that's probably an argument to the population of Croatia overall. Sarah DuPre: Yeah. Yeah. Well, and that's part of that ADR, know, creeps in ADR. So even though there was regulation put in place, the demand was, you know, the demand is still there. But even more so than that, the average daily rates just kept increasing, which is also a sign of some of the times, right? So there's some markets for which we have to have that kind of aside conversation, which is, OK, there's also a factor here, which is 2019, Croatia wasn't as exploded as it was in 2025. And so you also see some of that in the data. And that's where a lot of times some of that is not necessarily correlated. It's not like a one-to-one, like it was more similar in Berlin, for example. Ben: Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. No, just so interesting. So I guess one thing I don't know if you can say in the data, but we are particularly in Europe, EU as a whole. I think, you know, the kind of countries in Europe around the EU, the UK and kind of a non EU states will eventually follow in terms of regulation in terms of actual operators. Do you think we will see non-compliant operators go? Do you think they'll have to become compliant? Do you think we'll see some operators come out of the market? Do you have an idea of where the market might go there? Sarah DuPre: Yeah, I mean professional operators are going to have to come into compliance because the government will absolutely ruin you and your business. ⁓ There's no way around it. So you either have to come into compliance. I think for me the bigger question is will there be a way to come into compliance? So I think about places in Amsterdam or Barcelona or managers in... ⁓ in other areas where there's essentially a ban on short-term rentals. We're not talking about compliance. We're talking about you're not allowed to run a business here. You can't exist. So that, think, is the bigger question is if this trend is going to spread into other areas of Europe, there our industry has to band together and there we're going to have a problem. Because it no longer becomes, I come into compliance? There's no. Ben: Yeah. Sarah DuPre: There's no possible, there's no business. There's no compliance possible. ⁓ So I also think that professional operators are going to be much more equipped to handle and come into compliance with regulations as long as they're reasonable. So it's actually the smaller operators going to be more hurt by a lot of these things. They don't have the scale. They don't have the knowledge. Whereas if you're professional operator, you've got 300 listings. Okay. It's going to be a headache to get all of those potentially under the new regulations and everything set up, but any new listing you add, you already know the process. You already have, you've got your, your Ben: Yeah. Sarah DuPre: guy down at town hall that like you know his name and you know all his kids names and you've done this before. So it's a lot simpler and that also brings me to another question which is more of, I don't have an answer for it, it's just an existential question of and maybe even for regulators, is the goal to shut down businesses or is the goal to shut down anybody from renting out a property. Because here you hear conflicting things. So I know the narrative a lot of times in Spain is like, ⁓ there's something called a gran tenedor, which is basically like, depending on where you live, it's either you have five properties or you have 10 or more properties that you own. Ben: Yeah. Sarah DuPre: A lot of the regulations are, they're always talking about how they want to get rid of these companies, but ultimately the stricter they become, the bigger companies are the only ones who are able to actually be compliant. So the more safety regulations, the more all these things. So it's definitely a paradox. And I think there's also something that we're not talking about with regulation that... I mean, I could be on this soapbox all day. There is an affordable housing crisis in Europe. There is. And in particular in places of Europe, like Spain, like Italy, like Portugal, like Croatia, where now that a lot of people can work remotely, they don't want to live somewhere where the weather is miserable all year round. And so they go somewhere else. Since I've lived in Barcelona, I've been here for 15 years, the population of Barcelona proper has doubled in 15 years. Ben: Yeah. Yeah. Sarah DuPre: There's 35 % of the people that live in Barcelona that are not Spanish nationals. 35%. This is huge. It's absolutely huge. we're talking about, and of course there's all sorts of immigration in there, but a large percentage of that immigration is European immigration that comes from countries where they have the right to work here and live here. And they come from countries where they're working remotely, probably with a contract from Germany or from Sweden or from somewhere else, where they're earning two times, three times with the average span you're discerning. And so that's driving up rents because there's more demand, because there's more people, double in 15 years. This is insane. This is insane. Like when I first moved here, and so then you think, well, of course it's impossible to rent, you know? And now, like when I moved here 15 years ago, like I could, I had a three bedroom apartment, 80 square meters for 650. Like that doesn't exist in Barcelona anymore, you know? ⁓ And it's because of these demand drivers. And now it's basically impossible because which, which, you know, landlord would take on. Ben: Yeah. Yeah. Sarah DuPre: somebody that they don't think is going to pay them when especially in Spain like the government doesn't back you up. So if you're renting out long term, there's but for me the wider issue is like housing affordability and short term rentals are being used as a scapegoat for the reason why. And so I'm actually like in a weird way, I like I'm sad for operators that are operating in Barcelona. But in a weird way, I'm kind of looking forward to it because it's like, okay, you said you're problem and now it's actually gotten worse. Let's see 2028. Ben: Sheesh. Sarah DuPre: Let's see if they come to their senses. Ben: Yeah, I remember having a conversation with my Catalan friends in Barcelona because I think actually the local government has done a pretty successful job in convincing the local people that tourism is the problem. like the area of Barcelona I used to live in, I don't know what part you live in, I used to live right next to Fontana station on Gran De Gracia. Sarah DuPre: Yeah, let's do it. Okay, yeah. Yeah. Ben: Basically, there's a festival in this neighbourhood every year called Festival de Grafia. It's a week long festival and it started to be a bit talked about. So in the weeks leading up to this festival, there's loads of graffiti that just says tourists go home. I think this is, in my mind, this has become a bit viral because I've now seen it. I used to see it just in my neighbourhood, then I used to see it in other parts of Barcelona and now I see it in like Greece. or like other places like that. But I feel it started here with this festival. And when I talk to my Catalan friends about it, they are very much of the view that tourism is the problem. And I'm like, no, the problem is people like me. The problem, yeah, like it was me. Sarah DuPre: These people think I'm a tourist. I'm not, live here. I've lived here for 15 years. I've told somebody off on the street before when they say something like, all nasty, all nasty in Catalan, like, oh, it's like foreigners, they're ruining everything. I turn around in Catalan and she's like, excuse me, I live here. How nice to meet you. Oh yeah, just to tell people off, man, I can't stand it. It's worth every second of passes I took. Ben: Yeah. Yeah, good. Yeah, that's why you learn Catalan Sarah, just for that reason, right? But yeah, I always used to say like, you know, my wife and I are here on a London salary. Like we are, you know, we're benefiting the economy, but we're renting an apartment that could have gone to a family that could have gone to a local family in an area of it. At the time it's pretty local. We've taken a home away and like we are part of the reason that the rents are going up. Airbnb's take up. somewhere between I think 1.25 to 1.5 % of the housing stock. But like you say, 35 % are expats or foreigners, however you want to put it. And a lot of them are earning considerably higher income and or benefiting from Beckham's law, which for those that don't know means that you pay a 24 % flat rate of tax for the first five years. So you are paying less tax. Sarah DuPre: Yeah. Yeah. Ben: netting a higher take home and have a higher salary than the local people and taking away their homes and yeah this makes so much money for the local governments that they are like pointing towards short term rentals and tourism as a scapegoat and it always like blew my mind because for me it was so clear and then you've got you've got cruise ships as well which is a whole other thing which I will say for a yeah yeah Sarah DuPre: it is. Yeah, the Christians is a different thing. I think they should all die. Ben: Like, we might be getting a bit local here, but if you ever go up to Tibidabo Park, you know, where you got the Passage de l'Irore, and you can see the cruise ships all parked up, just bellowing smoke, just sitting over the city. ⁓ I hate it. Anyway, we're getting, well, I'm getting distracted. You're very good at staying on message, Sarah. So I guess like as a final question, I just wondered, do you think the Sarah DuPre: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's disgusting. Ben: the short-term mental space in Europe as a whole, do you think it will be kind of more competitive or it's going to get more professionalized as a result of everything that we're saying? Sarah DuPre: Yeah, for sure. I mean, it's hard to say with the trends in it, of course, depends on the market, but overall. my gut says it's going to get way more professional because it's going to have to. It's going to come too prohibitive for smaller operators. So, I mean, even somebody like me, like I have a rental property, I couldn't do short term in Barcelona. I had to turn it into a midterm rental. And even that is now starting to be regulated and it's complicated. And I'm thinking about telling because, and that's So imagine, you know, if I wanted to have two or three as as a, as a more individual, I think it's just going to push out these kind of, these kind of Ben: Yeah. Sarah DuPre: operators which in my mind are like the heart and soul of our industry. It's these budding hosts that you know start this out and they have a few properties themselves and they really love hospitality and they really love having people and showing them their city and showing them their town and so I think this for us is it's definitely gonna get more professional because it has to in order to come into compliance with a lot of the rules. It's gonna be prohibitive for smaller operators to do it. And it does make me kind of sad about kind of the soul of the industry because so many of the, even the companies that are now have, you know, 50, 60, 70 listings, they started out as smaller guys. And so I'm also curious to see what happens with... ⁓ the replacement. So as some of these larger companies maybe get out of certain markets or they shut down altogether because it becomes too prohibitive even for them to turn a profit, there's nobody to replace them. There's no new budding energy that has three properties and is really passionate about short-term rentals and wants to just, you know, manage them for other people. So there might not be as many professionals in the future. So I think it'll be like a cycle where in the near term, yes, but in the longer term, I'm not Ben: interesting. Sarah DuPre: I'm not positive because I think a lot of these, a lot of companies are already starting to get out of markets like Barcelona in particular. So I do think there's gonna be a tipping point where there's markets where nobody will go in. Like Blackstone, for example, Blackstone has pulled out of Barcelona. They have sold every single rental property they had. They had a mix of short term, midterm, long term. They've pulled out. They sold every property they had. So that's what you're provoking. And then if you're trying to solve an affordable housing crisis, that's not going to fix it because all these properties are now flooding the market and people who are looking for an affordable rent sure as hell cannot afford an 80 to 100 grand down payment for what it costs to purchase these properties. the whole system is broken. We're being run by idiots. Ben: Yeah, yeah, I get that. I get that. think it's just an interesting one to watch, right? In terms of like, you're right. Like actually I hadn't, I guess like I'd always considered that I think we're entering into a professionalization period in the market. And I think one of the operators is going to start eating up all the others and we'll just end up with three or four massive operators across Europe. And I think that's where it all goes. They cover pretty much all locations because they can afford to run Barcelona maybe at a break even or a small loss to say that they're in Barcelona rather than they have other massive hubs, right? But who knows? We'll have to wait and see. And if we continue to be run by idiots, then who knows what might happen, Sarah DuPre: We will help people keep voting them into power, so there's nothing we can do. Ben: Yeah, so thank you for coming on. It's been really interesting to have a conversation and jointly rant about Croatia and Spain with you. I very much enjoyed it. If people want to follow your work, learn about research coming out there, G &A, where should they go? Sarah DuPre: Yeah, sure. ⁓ So in general, AirDNA's website for all the latest research, our research team is growing and budding and six members of our research team now, they're absolutely incredible, led by Jamie Lane and ⁓ they produce. Awesome reports. we have a once a month, we have a US and a European market review. So directly on the website, that's part of the resources. So anybody who wants more information on what's happening in Europe or in the US in general can definitely check us out there. And then, yeah, if people want to engage, I'm really bad at social media, but feel free to LinkedIn me. I'm pretty sure the only one in the world, Sarah Nan Dupree. I was the first to claim it as my Gmail as well. like there's no Ben: ssshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshhshh What an honour! And you and Leo are heading up the these short stay summit as well as well, right? Sarah DuPre: Yeah, Leo and I are heading up the short stay summit in April, which we're super excited about. We'll be emceeing the main stage there. So there's going to be some awesome conversations. I think this could be great as well. I know you mentioned earlier, Ben, you're going to be at scale in Barcelona in October. And so I think some of the conversations that we're having at the short stay show could really guide those conversations that you're having ⁓ when come out in October ⁓ to as examples of, hey, this is what we're doing in the UK. This is what's working. ⁓ Ben: Uh-huh. Sarah DuPre: and see what we can get done here. And if you need me to tell anybody off, I'll gladly join those conversations. Ben: Fantastic, amazing. Well, look, Sarah Nan DuPre thank you so much for joining me ⁓ thank for watching. I'll see you on the next one.