Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - (URGENT) Market is Crashing Because of This + Stock Market News 02 October 2024

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Felix Prehn - (URGENT) Market is Crashing Because of This + Stock Market News 02 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, it says I'm live.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Finally.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: We made it Just came over here from our beginner live trading challenge, which was just before this, and I think somehow the IT got slightly overwhelmed with that.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: But we've got plenty of stuff to keep us busy with here this morning.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Loads of data out channel stuff happening overnight.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Market's not looking particularly happy for various reasons.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I wish to explain.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: The first piece of data we've got in is the ADP employment change, and I'm just going to share my screen with you here.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I appreciate your patience.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I did restart exactly that and it's out here.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: So the ADP, which is a private organization, it's actually a really good company.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Have a look at the stock.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: They say we got 143,000 jobs created.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: We were expecting about 90 to 120,000.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: So that's a big beat on expectations.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: And where did they come from?
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: The service industry leisure, hospitality, education, trade we lost jobs in information, ai doing its thing, goods producing sectors 26K in construction.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Stronger hiring don't require stronger pay growth last month, okay, so pay gains fell, so it's a good number.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: But maybe it's also not a scary number because pay hasn't gone up since.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: So we haven't had inflation here.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: So that's probably quite sweet from a soft landing miracle perspective.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So we're kind of enjoying that here right now.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: So, yes, there we are, we are live, right, okay, brilliant.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: So let's, I just wanted to make sure we actually were live.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: I wasn't just talking to myself.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: So why is the market down then?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: And let me show you stock heat map looks like this Still a lot of red.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: It's improving a little bit after the ADP data.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: If I look at our trends vision set up here and you can sign up for that if you wish when, here, there, where did my link go?
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: There it is, and you can see how many exits we called yesterday.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Right, like Shopify, and I mean DraftKings.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: So many things alter where we just said like run yesterday.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: And this is the algorithm doing its thing and just saying, hey, get out of these things because it's starting to look bad, and say, on something like Shopify, the stock's down 50%.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Our little indicator is up 9.6%, so it works to get out of stuff that is not worth holding.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: So We'll look at that in a little bit more detail in a moment.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: But why is the market actually down this much?
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: What's really happening here?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Well, we got data out yesterday that says the manufacturing data is real.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Last thing is that PKK says when are we going to be able to set favorites for the trends and not all stocks Interesting?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: We've done a little bit of that, my friend, under the hot category, which is new, which is basically the big stocks, what gets traded the most, it's talked about, the most.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: You probably find most of your favorites in there.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: But if you don't let me know, I'm always happy to add.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: But back to the recession Lovely, it's not a real recession, but just manufacturing is coming in at pretty, pretty bad.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: You just joined me on the, the beginner life challenge, which continues tomorrow, by the way.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Then, um, then you will understand, or start to understand, why risk management is everything and rules-based trading is everything, because that's how we're up 93% so far this year.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, 93%, that's not a typo.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: And if you look at our live trading portfolio, you might be thinking, after two horrible days we should be horribly down.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: This is a 30K portfolio.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Right, we're up $1,000.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: We closed everything else, right now we'd be up another $1,000.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: So we'd be hundred percent.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Um, we, we won't because we've got rules.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: So we close these out, not just market whims, but seriously.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Come and join us tomorrow.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Last chance, um, one hour before this kicks off tomorrow at uh felix friends rock slash challenge and you'll get day two, which is trading rules and actual trading.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: So you really get the, the stuff which is going to be most useful.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: And well, I don't know if it's most useful, but I think it's going to be very useful.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Now you might have seen the headlines in Israel Lots of missiles hitting Tel Aviv and so on.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: We haven't really got a proper report yet of damage, but we do know some of them got through because Iran fired ballistic missiles this time.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Last time they used mainly drones, which are slow.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Ballistic missiles are much faster and therefore much harder to intercept and it does seem that definitely some of them got through, hopefully with no casualties at least nothing confirmed yet Because you know they have bunkers right Under every apartment building in Israel.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: There is a bunker either in the basement or, if it's a modern building, they have a bunker room in the apartment.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: So there's a part of the building which is like super fortified and I know this because my personal trainer lives in Tel Aviv which might seem inconvenient, but it's actually incredibly convenient because we can do it on Zoom or whatever we use.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: So they have to, unfortunately, get up in the middle of the night and run into their bunker, which is obviously massively irritating but useful.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: So what is this showing you here?
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: This is showing you what the oil price does after kind of Israeli-related wars, and there isn't really a hard rule here.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I know it's spiking today.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: If you look at the oil futures here, they're all up.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: You see 2%, 3% up.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: But I actually don't think this is going to last.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: I think the economy is slowing down globally, Europe particularly that is actually going to keep putting pressure on the oil price.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think that inflation thing is something to use.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: And then we've got this chap here who must be one of the least likable people I've ever come across.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: That chap here, harold Daggett, is leading this strike across US ports, and US ports are something from the middle ages in terms of technology and automation, and I appreciate these guys want to keep their jobs and I appreciate they want to get pay rises and get that completely.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: But that guy, harold Daggett, you know how much he makes.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: He makes, I think, $870,000 a year, so I don't even know what he's shouting for.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: But yeah, that shutdown causes shortages in products, it causes inflation and it causes a significant slowdown in GDP and economic growth.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of the worst of both worlds.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: So hopefully there comes a consensus and let's face it.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sorry, guys, but you're mostly going to get replaced by robots.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: That's just the reality.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Modern ports have very, very few people in it.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Us ports have a lot of people in it and that isn't fair.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: I get that, but that's just progress.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: So, if you're working in an environment where you do a similar task every single day I sell this all the time learn something.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: You do a similar task every single day.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I sell this all the time.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Learn something else, bring in another income stream, learn AI, because it's coming for you, unfortunately.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: So that's one thing that's definitely got the market spooked and you're going to see shortages of goods in retailers pretty soon.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: It'll happen pretty quickly.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: You won't believe how, just in time, the US economy is run.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: So that'll be interesting.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: One of the things that we're making money out of is this VIX, and I think we talked about this about a week ago.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: I think we might have even set up the trade live here together and it's the fear index right, and it's been very, very low for a long time and it's been very, very low for a long time.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: This here was the 5th of August Japan crash.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: That was pretty unusual, but right now it's trading at about 20 or something like that, and so we're making some nice money on that.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So what are we going to do?
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: We're going to set up an exit on this, some sort of trailing stop loss, which means that if it does go down to say, here we're out and we're taking some profits rather than losing money on this thing.