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Trump's WORST NIGHTMARE! China Benefits as America Descends Into Chaos | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

0:01
Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to another episode of the special, this
0:04
Speaker 1: is a special episode of the Silk and Steel podcast.
0:08
Speaker 1: This is the post-US November election episode. And I have
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Speaker 1: back on the show our crowd's favorite returning guest, Einar Tengen,
0:18
Speaker 1: Senior Fellow of CICG. Einar, welcome back to the show.
0:23
Speaker 2: Well, thank you very much for having me, Carl. It's
0:25
Speaker 2: an interesting day. Wow. As we were talking earlier, I
0:34
Speaker 2: was thinking, especially yesterday, I don't know if you saw this,
0:38
Speaker 2: but he did a final push to get the troops out,
0:43
Speaker 2: standing in front of the Reflecting Pond, which has been
0:46
Speaker 2: an unmitigated disaster, talking about pipes in his project in
0:53
Speaker 2: the East Wing. I was just trying to figure out
0:56
Speaker 2: how this was motivating this project. potential supporters. But we've
1:01
Speaker 2: seen today it didn't work.
1:04
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, he's the one that's always talking about
1:07
Speaker 1: senile Biden. But right now he's Biden's age and he's
1:11
Speaker 1: acting just like Biden. But except much worse because... Much worse.
1:17
Speaker 2: Biden just went silent. He's letting the crazy out of
1:22
Speaker 2: the box. True. I mean... I don't know how else
1:29
Speaker 2: to put it.
1:31
Speaker 1: And he had to start this totally unnecessary war on Iran, which,
1:38
Speaker 1: you know, totally unnecessary, totally uncalled for. And this is
1:43
Speaker 1: what did him. I believe this is not really Democrats
1:48
Speaker 1: who won the election. It's Iran that won the election
1:52
Speaker 1: because the Democrats didn't have to do anything. The Democrats
1:57
Speaker 1: didn't have to do anything.
1:59
Speaker 2: Well, yes and no. OK, so I completely agree with you.
2:03
Speaker 2: This is a referendum on Trump. He made promises and
2:06
Speaker 2: he broke every single one of them. He didn't bring peace.
2:08
Speaker 2: He started more wars. He didn't bring down prices. They
2:12
Speaker 2: actually went up. People feel less secure today. The only
2:16
Speaker 2: thing that he did do was terrorize immigrants, many of
2:21
Speaker 2: whom were illegal immigrants. And, you know, throwing them in
2:24
Speaker 2: very expensive jails. Obviously, there's going to be a lot
2:27
Speaker 2: of investigations going on there. But, you know, it failed.
2:31
Speaker 2: I mean, and you could tell immediately, as I always
2:34
Speaker 2: like to tell you, I used to run elections in
2:36
Speaker 2: the U.S. and I participated in presidential elections. I ran
2:42
Speaker 2: state and local elections. You know, when you have 52
2:46
Speaker 2: million people voting before the ballot, you know, before the day,
2:53
Speaker 2: you know, you only have 350 million possible voters. That
2:57
Speaker 2: should tell you something. They're not going out there and
3:00
Speaker 2: voting because they're happy. If they come out in those
3:03
Speaker 2: numbers and that was a record, that means they're really unhappy.
3:08
Speaker 2: And that is being reflected in the polls. And you've
3:11
Speaker 2: almost had a clean sweep of Democrats just pushing out Republicans,
3:16
Speaker 2: even in really deep red states where Trump won between
3:21
Speaker 2: 11 and 24 percentage points. Now it is completely reversed.
3:27
Speaker 2: And I'm sure it didn't help that he made these
3:30
Speaker 2: offhanded comments that he didn't care about inflation and people
3:34
Speaker 2: just suck it up and the future will be better.
3:38
Speaker 2: He promised that he was going to do a day
3:40
Speaker 2: one so far. Day one has not arrived.
3:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, Texas. Texas flipped.
3:51
Speaker 2: Georgia flipped. Georgia flipped. Come on. Kansas flipped. I don't know.
3:58
Speaker 2: I don't know. And he's saying that the only reason
4:02
Speaker 2: the results were was because he was not physically on
4:05
Speaker 2: the ballot. I think if he was physically on the ballot,
4:08
Speaker 2: it would probably have been worse. But, you know, this
4:10
Speaker 2: is the denial. The question is, what does he do?
4:13
Speaker 2: I've been on a number of programs today. The two
4:16
Speaker 2: questions is, what do you think he's going to do?
4:18
Speaker 2: He says he's going to abide by the elections, not
4:22
Speaker 2: he's going to be looking for someone to blame. If
4:26
Speaker 2: I'm Pete Hegseth, I would be, you know, finding a
4:29
Speaker 2: nice cardboard box to remove all my stuff from my office,
4:34
Speaker 2: along with some others, because it can't be Trump's fault.
4:37
Speaker 2: And his pattern that he learned from Cohn, who was
4:44
Speaker 2: the legal inspiration behind the anti-activities committee, was always double down,
4:53
Speaker 2: never admit you're wrong. never apologize, just keep doubling down until,
4:59
Speaker 2: you know, either you go to jail, which, in fact,
5:03
Speaker 2: Cohn did, or you win. So, yeah, he's in a
5:07
Speaker 2: whole heap of trouble. And, you know, they said, so
5:14
Speaker 2: what does he do next? Okay, and then the question is, oh,
5:17
Speaker 2: so what does this mean? And I was asked this
5:20
Speaker 2: on Indian TV earlier today, and I said, look, It
5:24
Speaker 2: means chaos. You have a divided executive and legislative. They're
5:30
Speaker 2: not going to support each other. Trump says, oh, I
5:33
Speaker 2: want to work with the Democrats. Well, that's maybe a
5:36
Speaker 2: little late. I think they see him as an aggressive
5:40
Speaker 2: person who's weaponized every part of government that he's getting
5:43
Speaker 2: his hands on. And I think, quite frankly, they will
5:46
Speaker 2: be going after what they perceive to be doodles and
5:51
Speaker 2: tons of corruption in him and his family, incompetence. You know,
5:58
Speaker 2: there was a jail that, you know, was offered to
6:02
Speaker 2: the state for $ 70 million, and it ended up being
6:04
Speaker 2: bought by ICE for over $ 400 million. Yeah, and it's
6:09
Speaker 2: not just one deal. There are many deals there. I mean,
6:12
Speaker 2: with Guilfoy, who was the ambassador to Greece, you saw
6:17
Speaker 2: her openly pushing people who were enriching her, including them
6:23
Speaker 2: in sensitive meetings where they were not identified as outside
6:27
Speaker 2: entities representing companies that had a financial interest in the
6:33
Speaker 2: outcome of those talks. Lavish lifestyle. Everyone knows about calling
6:40
Speaker 2: some guy up and saying, give me $ 100, 000 to pay
6:42
Speaker 2: my bills so no one can trace it and do
6:44
Speaker 2: it in a certain way so no one knows about it.
6:48
Speaker 2: It's going to become a kind of a meme for
6:50
Speaker 2: his things. Now, the question that I have is, does
6:55
Speaker 2: the Republican Party look at this and say, OK, if
7:00
Speaker 2: we continue down this road for the next two months, remember,
7:03
Speaker 2: nothing changes until January 3rd, theoretically, when the new Congress
7:09
Speaker 2: is sworn in. Until that time, the old Congress is
7:11
Speaker 2: still there. Do they double down and try to give
7:14
Speaker 2: Trump what he needs to last out the next couple
7:17
Speaker 2: of years? Or does somebody say, look, we got, you know,
7:21
Speaker 2: this guy is, he's off the charts. He's more demented
7:29
Speaker 2: than Biden was. We need to get rid of him.
7:32
Speaker 2: And they could do that. And quite frankly, I think J.D.
7:36
Speaker 2: Vance might discover that he's shocked that there's corruption going
7:41
Speaker 2: on in the Trump family and say, you know, we
7:44
Speaker 2: will initiate, Republicans initiate impeachment proceedings and then bring it
7:52
Speaker 2: to the Senate. If they do that, they would have
7:58
Speaker 2: a trying to reposition their party by expelling Trump, basically
8:02
Speaker 2: cutting out the cancer. Will they do that? I don't know.
8:06
Speaker 2: I mean, it's a huge risk. Obviously, Donald Trump would
8:11
Speaker 2: fight all the way until they dragged his carcass literally
8:15
Speaker 2: out of the White House. But I don't really see
8:20
Speaker 2: any kind of votes for the Republicans. If they wait
8:22
Speaker 2: for the Democrats to be going through the next two
8:25
Speaker 2: years being beaten on for being an accessory to what
8:29
Speaker 2: the Democrats are going to say, corruption, whether it's the
8:33
Speaker 2: Epstein files and not releasing them. whether it's the personal
8:36
Speaker 2: and family corruption of Donald Trump, all of the economic
8:42
Speaker 2: bad news that's come, and an endless war that Donald
8:46
Speaker 2: Trump cannot solve because he's trapped by his own rhetoric.
8:52
Speaker 2: If he does something which garners him something less than
8:56
Speaker 2: the JCPOA that he rejected, he tore up, he will
9:02
Speaker 2: look like an idiot. I mean, he spent... Billions and billions,
9:06
Speaker 2: you know, we're getting close to $ 50 billion to get
9:10
Speaker 2: an agreement that is less than the agreement that would
9:13
Speaker 2: have kept nuclear arms out of Iran. Come on, he
9:18
Speaker 2: can't go there. So he's trapped by his rhetoric. That
9:22
Speaker 2: would not be the case with J.D. Vance. So I
9:25
Speaker 2: think there's going to be some very powerful heads who
9:28
Speaker 2: are going to be behind closed doors and they're going
9:31
Speaker 2: to decide what they want to do with the Republican Party.
9:34
Speaker 2: In terms of the Democrats, well, you know, I had
9:37
Speaker 2: a friend who said, I do not belong to an
9:39
Speaker 2: organized party. I belong, I'm a Democrat. And they are
9:44
Speaker 2: really showing that. You're seeing cracks already between the progressives
9:48
Speaker 2: and the, what they call themselves, moderates, I would say,
9:52
Speaker 2: the old guard versus the new guard. The old guard
9:55
Speaker 2: is Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, things like that. They're very pro-Israel.
10:00
Speaker 2: They actually support the idea of blasting away at Iran,
10:04
Speaker 2: but they're willing to hang Trump out to dry for
10:10
Speaker 2: actually doing it. So there's going to be real dissension
10:13
Speaker 2: among the ranks. I think the momentum is clearly with
10:16
Speaker 2: the new guard. The old guard is going to start
10:19
Speaker 2: literally dying out pretty soon. But, you know, there's a
10:25
Speaker 2: lot of people in the quote, old guard, have been playing,
10:30
Speaker 2: you know, kind of seniority games. That's my turn. You know,
10:33
Speaker 2: Hakeem Jeffries believes that he's going to be the Speaker
10:36
Speaker 2: of the House. I have a feeling that that might
10:38
Speaker 2: not be the case, that there will be intense fighting
10:42
Speaker 2: and jockeying, and he might actually be out. He has
10:45
Speaker 2: not been very supportive of a lot of the progressive camp,
10:52
Speaker 2: and these are the ones that have the momentum. They're
10:54
Speaker 2: the ones who took the red states. What It wasn't
10:57
Speaker 2: a bunch of middle-of-the-road people. It was people who were
11:01
Speaker 2: presenting a new vision, younger, more energetic, and not tainted
11:07
Speaker 2: by the years of failure that the Democrats have in
11:13
Speaker 2: their past. So, yeah, this is a story that will
11:16
Speaker 2: be an interesting story of parties. In terms of the economics,
11:19
Speaker 2: clearly now be in chaos for the next two years
11:23
Speaker 2: and two months. And in contrast, you have areas with Asia,
11:30
Speaker 2: ASEAN with China as an important part of it, which
11:34
Speaker 2: are much more predictable. I mean, especially China, they're relying
11:39
Speaker 2: on internal consumption. They are a mainstay of the international.
11:44
Speaker 2: You cannot, there's nothing you can, you can't go through
11:47
Speaker 2: life without, in a day, in a normal day in
11:50
Speaker 2: a city, in your house, without touching something And I mean,
11:55
Speaker 2: you know, screws, nuts, bolts, drywall, doors, all the hardware
12:01
Speaker 2: that you touch, your furniture, et cetera. So China has
12:05
Speaker 2: this kind of built-in advantage in that what they produce
12:08
Speaker 2: is not something you can go without. And at the
12:11
Speaker 2: same time, because they have these predictable policies they're doing,
12:16
Speaker 2: five-year plans, et cetera, it's going to be much more
12:19
Speaker 2: attractive to capital who are going to say, look, you
12:25
Speaker 2: in the U.S. is now destroyed. Even with Donald Trump in,
12:29
Speaker 2: if he has a majority, you can kind of figure
12:32
Speaker 2: out what he's going to do, or you can bribe him.
12:35
Speaker 2: But in this particular case, no, you know, bribing Donald
12:39
Speaker 2: Trump won't get you very far, especially if they're ongoing investigations.
12:44
Speaker 2: You don't want to be part of that. You don't
12:46
Speaker 2: know that, you're pretty certain that his policies are going
12:48
Speaker 2: to be reversed as soon as he's out of office.
12:50
Speaker 2: So unless you can make a lot of money in
12:52
Speaker 2: the next two years and two months, You have to
12:55
Speaker 2: look elsewhere. Capital is generally longer term than that. So
13:00
Speaker 2: you're going to see a big shift already. You're seeing
13:03
Speaker 2: the Chinese stock market reacting. It's going up slowly. There'll
13:07
Speaker 2: be a brief bounce on the US side as people say, oh,
13:11
Speaker 2: maybe it's a fresh start. Maybe there's some way this
13:14
Speaker 2: all works together. I think that's hopeless. I do not
13:17
Speaker 2: see Trump sitting down and communicating in any kind of
13:22
Speaker 2: rational manner with the the new guard or the old
13:25
Speaker 2: guard for that matter. And as a result, you know,
13:29
Speaker 2: you're just going to have this incredible mess. He will
13:32
Speaker 2: continue to just do what he wants and let the
13:34
Speaker 2: court sort it out, whether it's legal or not. But
13:37
Speaker 2: this is going to set up all sorts of frictions.
13:40
Speaker 2: And I said, he's going to be playing defense for
13:44
Speaker 2: a long period of time. He was actually aware of
13:46
Speaker 2: this prior to the election. And he, the, The rumors
13:51
Speaker 2: are that he has a $ 400 million super PAC that
13:54
Speaker 2: he controls. 200, half of that super PAC has been
13:59
Speaker 2: devoted to defending his family. He can be defended by
14:02
Speaker 2: the Justice Department, but his family is going to be
14:05
Speaker 2: coming under heavy scrutiny. I mean, you know, we could
14:09
Speaker 2: sit here for another hour just listing the different dodgy
14:14
Speaker 2: deals that have been done by his sons, Jared Kushner,
14:17
Speaker 2: you know, people in his cabinet. It's just– it's unbelievable
14:23
Speaker 2: because it wasn't hidden generally. Richard Nixon came out and said, yeah,
14:29
Speaker 2: I'm covering up for the plumbers.
14:36
Speaker 1: Do you think the Democrats will actually go after him
14:39
Speaker 1: using judicial process? Do you think they're actually going to
14:44
Speaker 1: try to nail him for corruption though?
14:46
Speaker 2: Yes. Because it's not political. They're not going after him
14:54
Speaker 2: on something that they can't prove. The corruption that he's
14:56
Speaker 2: involved in can be proved on paper. His sons received
15:02
Speaker 2: billions of dollars of contracts in companies that they had
15:06
Speaker 2: invested in a couple of months before. And although it's
15:11
Speaker 2: not a crime for public officials, to use their inside
15:15
Speaker 2: information to benefit. Otherwise, Nancy Pelosi would be doing a
15:19
Speaker 2: stretch of 30 years along with her husband and Chuck
15:23
Speaker 2: Schumer and a whole bunch of them as well. It's
15:26
Speaker 2: not a crime to do that. But when you start
15:29
Speaker 2: doing it directly, all right, and, you know, you have
15:32
Speaker 2: your son-in-law negotiating with people he's doing business with, and
15:38
Speaker 2: you cannot see that this is... a conflict of interest
15:42
Speaker 2: and that it is in fact a violation of the
15:44
Speaker 2: emoluments clause that he is actually benefiting. And there's so
15:48
Speaker 2: many instances of that. The trades, he's done more trades
15:54
Speaker 2: than all presidents put together ever. I mean, ever. And
15:59
Speaker 2: on one day, I think he actually did enough trades
16:03
Speaker 2: in one day where he eclipsed everybody else, nevermind the
16:05
Speaker 2: rest of them. He's just done double digits above everybody else.
16:10
Speaker 2: So It's just, you know, that's the low-hanging fruit. If
16:15
Speaker 2: you try to hang him out politically, you know, his
16:18
Speaker 2: base will respond to this. But what are they going
16:20
Speaker 2: to say when they learn that there have been billions
16:22
Speaker 2: of dollars that have gone into things? He sold pardons.
16:26
Speaker 2: There's a clear pattern in practice where money was given
16:29
Speaker 2: to either people or directly to things he was interested in.
16:35
Speaker 2: And all of a sudden they got a pardon. No reason,
16:39
Speaker 2: no rhyme to it. He can't even explain it. When
16:42
Speaker 2: he's asked, why did you give him a pardon? He says, well,
16:45
Speaker 2: I don't even know the guy. I just heard that
16:47
Speaker 2: he got a rough deal. Okay, well, let's see. What
16:50
Speaker 2: did he say about Biden and pardon and what he's doing?
16:54
Speaker 2: He uses an auto pen. He has no clue who
16:56
Speaker 2: he's pardoning. Well, that's going to come back to haunt
17:01
Speaker 2: him in future hearings and things like this. So although
17:05
Speaker 2: he cannot be prosecuted criminally, he can be impeached. And
17:11
Speaker 2: the only question in my mind at this point is
17:13
Speaker 2: who impeaches him? Do the Republicans say this is our
17:16
Speaker 2: only way out, a very difficult situation, or do they
17:20
Speaker 2: wait for the Democrats to use this as a moral
17:25
Speaker 2: authority and then beat them into oblivion? So I think
17:28
Speaker 2: it would be smarter for them to get rid of Trump, but.
17:31
Speaker 3: Let's say smoke-filled back rooms probably in the next few
17:40
Speaker 3: days as they recap what's going on to decide what
17:43
Speaker 3: they think they have to do.
17:46
Speaker 1: It might be better even for Trump if he gets
17:49
Speaker 1: impeached because then he can have J.D. Vance give him
17:53
Speaker 1: a part.
17:54
Speaker 2: I doubt. No, I think that's the problem. I think
18:01
Speaker 2: what he would try to do is pardon himself. Very
18:05
Speaker 2: difficult to see that going through. J.D. Vance is not
18:08
Speaker 2: going to pardon him. J.D. Vance has aspirations to be president.
18:12
Speaker 2: He saw what happened to Gerald Ford when Gerald Ford
18:14
Speaker 2: gave a pardon to Richard Nixon, who next to Trump
18:19
Speaker 2: looks like, you know, an angel of light and goodness.
18:23
Speaker 2: So I don't think, you know, if Vance does that,
18:28
Speaker 2: he's finished. And he knows that. And Peter Thiel has
18:32
Speaker 2: put a quarter of a billion dollars behind this guy.
18:35
Speaker 2: He doesn't want to see his investment And there's no
18:39
Speaker 2: reason to do it. If you're if you're impeaching the
18:41
Speaker 2: guy for his crimes, the last thing you want to
18:44
Speaker 2: do is pardon him. It's possible, you know, in theory,
18:49
Speaker 2: if Trump was rational, he would just say, hey, look,
18:54
Speaker 2: I'll make a deal. You pardon me and I'll step down.
18:58
Speaker 2: All right. But that's not Trump's style. He's he's not
19:02
Speaker 2: at that point yet. So. I don't think he ever will.
19:05
Speaker 2: I mean, he's always believes that if you double down enough,
19:08
Speaker 2: somehow you'll come out on top. But that would be
19:12
Speaker 2: the rational way to do it. Maybe, you know, he can.
19:17
Speaker 2: Vance could make the argument and say, look, you know.
19:21
Speaker 2: I did this drawn out where, you know, we're in
19:24
Speaker 2: a situation where we're going to have to work together
19:26
Speaker 2: and I'm prepared to work together with the Democrats that
19:29
Speaker 2: could come make him look more presidential, if you know
19:33
Speaker 2: what I mean. And, of course, he would do a
19:36
Speaker 2: massive house cleaning in the cabinet. Pete Hegseth, who he
19:41
Speaker 2: is rumored not to like, especially because he gave really,
19:44
Speaker 2: really bad advice about going into Iran, would be out,
19:49
Speaker 2: and he would not. have a pardon in his hand
19:53
Speaker 2: unless somehow Trump decides to give him a pardon. And
19:57
Speaker 2: if he doesn't have a pardon, you know, he could be,
20:02
Speaker 2: there's a Democratic president and a Democratic, they could decide that, yeah,
20:07
Speaker 2: we'll just give him to the ICC and Let them
20:10
Speaker 2: have some fun with war criminal Pete Hedges. He says,
20:15
Speaker 2: we're not doing it. We're letting the international community do it.
20:19
Speaker 2: That would be kind of fun. I don't think it happens.
20:23
Speaker 2: But I mean, you could see some real change. The
20:25
Speaker 2: question is whether the Republicans are very passive or aggressive
20:29
Speaker 2: in terms of trying to resurrect whatever is left.
20:33
Speaker 1: Well, I don't much care for Pete Hedges. I don't
20:36
Speaker 1: care what happened to him. But what I worry, though,
20:39
Speaker 1: is that Trump might lash out in some other way,
20:42
Speaker 1: like double down on his war on Iran, have a
20:46
Speaker 1: major escalation. This is something that has been reported. There's
20:50
Speaker 1: news floating around just before the election that says Netanyahu
20:54
Speaker 1: is pressuring Trump to do a major escalation against Iran
20:59
Speaker 1: and that they have the U.S. military asset was moving
21:02
Speaker 1: in place in the Persian Gulf. And they're going to
21:06
Speaker 1: strike all Iranian civilian infrastructures, desalination plans, power plans, bridges.
21:14
Speaker 1: Of course, Iran warns against the consequences of that. But
21:17
Speaker 1: if Trump gets desperate, he might just go for it.
21:21
Speaker 1: And as you say, Trump is a master at creating
21:25
Speaker 1: distractions for his current issue. A huge escalation war against
21:29
Speaker 1: Iran would give that distraction for his current issue. electoral
21:35
Speaker 1: defeat um what what do you say about.
21:38
Speaker 2: That yeah distraction yes but it's doubling down on an
21:42
Speaker 2: issue where he got you know literally everyone he chose
21:46
Speaker 2: got killed in the election so i mean it's not
21:49
Speaker 2: a winning play yes it does distract people but it's
21:52
Speaker 2: not going to do it for netanyahu it makes sense
21:56
Speaker 2: uh right now um he doesn't have the votes to
21:59
Speaker 2: get it in i mean i'm sure he'd like to
22:01
Speaker 2: say um Because if they attack Iran and Israel's involved,
22:05
Speaker 2: you know, Iran will fire back at Israel. And that
22:09
Speaker 2: gives him this thing, oh, we have to have a
22:11
Speaker 2: unity government. You know, we're under attack. We can't change
22:14
Speaker 2: horses midstream. You know, you've got to keep me in.
22:17
Speaker 2: He's a day by day guy. He tries to figure
22:19
Speaker 2: out how he can stay in power today. And he's
22:22
Speaker 2: willing to do almost anything to accomplish that, as we
22:25
Speaker 2: have seen for the last 30 years. He's a political animal,
22:30
Speaker 2: very cunning. And he's absolutely ruthless. I mean, you know,
22:34
Speaker 2: if you if you go back and start looking at
22:36
Speaker 2: the statements he made about the people that are now in,
22:40
Speaker 2: he's doing power sharing with you to understand that he
22:43
Speaker 2: has absolutely no scruples. He said unbelievable. You know, he
22:47
Speaker 2: thought these people were nuts, bad, evil and everything like that.
22:50
Speaker 2: And now they're his best friends and power sharing guys. So,
22:56
Speaker 2: I mean, there are no lines for him except standing
22:59
Speaker 2: out of prison. And right now, the only way he
23:02
Speaker 2: can do that, in his estimation, is an attack on Iran.
23:06
Speaker 2: The real question that is circling around people that I
23:10
Speaker 2: know is whether it's going to be nuclear. There's some
23:13
Speaker 2: real concern that the Motherall bombs, if you drop it
23:16
Speaker 2: on Pickaxe Mountain, which is supposedly where they have it,
23:20
Speaker 2: it's a hardened site. It doesn't do anything. They close
23:22
Speaker 2: the blast doors. Yes, it does. The place looks slightly
23:27
Speaker 2: different afterwards. It's a very, very remote and not very
23:33
Speaker 2: habitable type of place. But it doesn't knock out anything underground.
23:39
Speaker 2: The question is, would he be willing to use a
23:41
Speaker 2: nuclear weapon, a tactical nuke? There are people in the
23:44
Speaker 2: Pentagon who have been advocating for some belief that Pete
23:49
Speaker 2: Hegseth is one of those. And he's desperate for anything
23:54
Speaker 2: that keeps things going and keeps him in power and
23:57
Speaker 2: himself out of jail. So that is really, really something
24:03
Speaker 2: that is things I was talking to a friend of mine,
24:07
Speaker 2: a very well-known podcaster. And he said that it's real,
24:13
Speaker 2: real concern that in Russia right now, where he's located,
24:16
Speaker 2: that the talk is that they think that.
24:22
Speaker 4: That.
24:23
Speaker 2: And it takes escalation to a new level. I mean,
24:28
Speaker 2: the nuclear fallout from that, because of where Iran is
24:32
Speaker 2: located there, it's at a convergence of jet streams. So
24:37
Speaker 2: any kind of nuclear radiation or dust is going to
24:39
Speaker 2: be spread out across Central Asia and eventually making itself
24:45
Speaker 2: into East Asia. So not a very palatable idea, but
24:53
Speaker 2: you pointed out, no one knows exactly what Trump is
24:55
Speaker 2: going to do and how desperate he gets to do distractions.
24:59
Speaker 2: It's going to be increasingly harder after January 3rd because
25:03
Speaker 2: the Democrats will come in with their agenda and they're
25:06
Speaker 2: going to be setting the tone. It'll be much harder
25:09
Speaker 2: for him to introduce distractions if he's having to battle
25:15
Speaker 2: Congress as they make requests for documents and information. Obviously,
25:19
Speaker 2: he'll stonewall them having his personal attorney as the attorney
25:22
Speaker 2: general helps because he's made it very clear that he
25:27
Speaker 2: serves as president first and America last. So it's a
25:32
Speaker 2: time of great uncertainty, a tale of two cities, Beijing
25:36
Speaker 2: and Washington, best of times and worst of times, according
25:40
Speaker 2: to Dickens. And right now, I think everything is pretty
25:45
Speaker 2: much sliding in terms of Beijing's way, not because of
25:49
Speaker 2: anything it's done, but simply because of the many own
25:52
Speaker 2: goals that the U.S. has done. I mean, I was
25:56
Speaker 2: talking to somebody, and we were laughing about the fact
25:58
Speaker 2: that the only groups out there that want to see
26:03
Speaker 2: Trump remain in power are the MAGA faithful, the cult following, China,
26:08
Speaker 2: and Russia, all for different reasons. Russia, because, you know,
26:12
Speaker 2: he says, well, he's our guy. He's opening up the
26:16
Speaker 2: markets for us, you know, well, They have some hope
26:18
Speaker 2: about Ukraine. He's cutting them off. Keep this guy in
26:23
Speaker 2: power for the cult following. I mean, it's just blind adherence.
26:29
Speaker 2: They think that he's Jesus Christ's second coming and that
26:33
Speaker 2: he was anointed by God to do what he's doing.
26:37
Speaker 2: But for China, it's just simply that they could never
26:40
Speaker 2: have imagined that an American president would do what Donald
26:43
Speaker 2: Trump has done to allies, neighbors, to the prestige of
26:50
Speaker 2: America to its soft power, to its own economy. And
26:55
Speaker 2: it's not something where China wishes the United States to
26:59
Speaker 2: do badly. In fact, this is the greatest irony that
27:02
Speaker 2: there is. China is in the enviable position of having
27:07
Speaker 2: to try to save America from itself. Because if the
27:13
Speaker 2: United States, which consumes 18, 19 percent of the world's GDP,
27:18
Speaker 2: Even if a third of that went away, we'd be
27:20
Speaker 2: looking at a global recession, perhaps depression. That does not
27:24
Speaker 2: help China. It does not help the rest of the world.
27:28
Speaker 2: So it's this kind of balancing act. How do you
27:30
Speaker 2: keep America afloat when it seems determined to drill holes
27:34
Speaker 2: in the bottom of the boat? And it's a very,
27:38
Speaker 2: very odd situation when your enemy is the only one
27:42
Speaker 2: who wants to help you.
27:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's interesting because there was a news report coming
27:48
Speaker 1: out that China officially responded to the American proposal to
27:54
Speaker 1: have a trilateral summit between Xi, Putin, and Trump at
28:01
Speaker 1: the APEC meeting in Shenzhen that's coming up in November.
28:07
Speaker 1: And the ostensible goal of the trilateral summit is to
28:14
Speaker 1: resolve the ukraine war but china said look ukraine war
28:18
Speaker 1: is not our issue you should involve all the parties
28:23
Speaker 1: who are belligerent that's that means you should invite the
28:25
Speaker 1: europeans not us this is not our problem.
28:31
Speaker 2: Well carl i mean you know i i i never
28:35
Speaker 2: understand this i you know i talk to a lot
28:37
Speaker 2: of european ambassadors on a regular basis and it's it's
28:40
Speaker 2: always very clear they blame china for war that they
28:44
Speaker 2: and the United States started. And they say that if
28:46
Speaker 2: China was on side against Russia, that the war would
28:50
Speaker 2: be over. And, you know, the Chinese scratched their head.
28:53
Speaker 2: They said, well, how do you defeat Russia? Okay. It's
28:58
Speaker 2: a nuclear power. It has huge resources. You're not going
29:03
Speaker 2: to defeat it. And they just say, oh, well, it's
29:07
Speaker 2: the only way. It's the only way. And, you know,
29:09
Speaker 2: it's China's fault. So, you know, it's this kind of
29:12
Speaker 2: shift I start a war, but I expect with you, no,
29:17
Speaker 2: I start a war with my neighbor, and then I
29:19
Speaker 2: turn to you, who's not involved, and say, hey, you know,
29:23
Speaker 2: it's your responsibility to figure out how to end my mess. And,
29:27
Speaker 2: you know, China's like, what do you expect us to do?
29:31
Speaker 2: This is only going to resolve long term when you have,
29:33
Speaker 2: as you pointed out, all the parties at the table.
29:36
Speaker 2: That means Russia, Ukraine, Europe. I think China is willing
29:39
Speaker 2: to sit in at a large table, all right, where
29:43
Speaker 2: you have India, Russia, South Africa, Brazil, the BRICS, plus
29:51
Speaker 2: the rest of the G20. If you have them sitting
29:53
Speaker 2: there as guarantors on the hope that this will you know,
29:59
Speaker 2: prevent violations of whatever agreement that is reached. Yeah, I
30:03
Speaker 2: think China's all for that. And they have said so.
30:06
Speaker 2: And that would be very much in line with this
30:08
Speaker 2: global governance initiative where you put together a body where
30:11
Speaker 2: you can talk instead of throwing tanks at each other.
30:15
Speaker 2: But this idea that somehow, you know, you can corner
30:18
Speaker 2: China into brokering a peace with a country that's not
30:22
Speaker 2: even a party to the talks. I mean, you understand
30:27
Speaker 2: that You've got to have it. I don't care whether
30:29
Speaker 2: you like Ukraine or not or Zelensky. I don't know
30:33
Speaker 2: how you have a peace with a country when they're
30:35
Speaker 2: not represented. How do you force peace on somebody? So
30:38
Speaker 2: it doesn't make sense. And also not having Europe there
30:42
Speaker 2: doesn't make sense. I think this appeals to Trump's vanity
30:47
Speaker 2: in the sense that he thinks this is another Yalta
30:49
Speaker 2: and that, you know, he's with the big boys, you know.
30:54
Speaker 2: You know, he's rubbing shoulders and, you know, they're talking
30:56
Speaker 2: big stuff and they respect him. I don't think either
30:59
Speaker 2: one of them respect Donald Trump. I think they laugh
31:02
Speaker 2: at him. I think he's a fool. And they don't
31:05
Speaker 2: think he's capable of handling his business. For Russia, they
31:13
Speaker 2: want to be very, you know, if Trump wants to meet, sure,
31:16
Speaker 2: let's meet. You know, maybe, you know, they agreed to
31:20
Speaker 2: cut off Starlink and basically the Ukrainians are fighting blind.
31:25
Speaker 2: Maybe he says, oh, you can sell as much oil
31:27
Speaker 2: as you want to whoever you want. Well, all of
31:29
Speaker 2: a sudden they have dollars and things like that. So
31:32
Speaker 2: it's very much in Russia's interest. But there's no interest
31:35
Speaker 2: for China because it's just it would pile more pressure
31:39
Speaker 2: and the perception that somehow China is the key to
31:43
Speaker 2: a peace agreement, you know, way, way far away that
31:48
Speaker 2: it didn't want to start. And it doesn't include the
31:52
Speaker 2: parties that are necessary to solve it.
31:56
Speaker 1: Yeah. Because a lot of people in the West don't understand.
32:00
Speaker 1: China's goal is not to be like another United States.
32:05
Speaker 1: Because China's China's top priority is always China. China actually
32:10
Speaker 1: practiced China first policy, unlike the government in Washington. The
32:16
Speaker 1: government in Washington is always Israel first.
32:20
Speaker 2: Yes, but I'm glad you caught that. I mean, the
32:22
Speaker 2: real MAGA, make your country great again, is China. And
32:27
Speaker 2: they talk about it as rejuvenation. In America, they should
32:30
Speaker 2: make America great again. But, you know, what do they do?
32:33
Speaker 2: They go out and start useless wars. They piss off
32:36
Speaker 2: all their neighbors and allies with tariffs and things like that.
32:41
Speaker 2: They're the toddler who's throwing their toys out of the crib.
32:47
Speaker 2: No one knows what to do about it because the U.S.
32:49
Speaker 2: is too big to handle. Later this month, there's a symposium,
32:57
Speaker 2: Jorge Haini, who is a former ambassador to India, South Africa, China,
33:02
Speaker 2: from Chile, in addition to other work that he has done,
33:06
Speaker 2: is talking about non-alignment and how to do that. And
33:10
Speaker 2: this is exactly what we're talking about. And he's talking
33:13
Speaker 2: from a South American perspective. He said, we don't want
33:16
Speaker 2: to get caught between two powers. And one of my
33:20
Speaker 2: questions to him is, well, do you equate the United
33:24
Speaker 2: States and China Because my sense of being here for
33:29
Speaker 2: 22 years is that they have a very different perspective.
33:32
Speaker 2: They're not establishing bases all over the world. They're not
33:36
Speaker 2: trying to project power. In the U.S., we have 750
33:40
Speaker 2: plus bases outside and 500 bases within the United States.
33:46
Speaker 2: That's about power projection, where we are the policemen of
33:50
Speaker 2: the world and we're still running around like we're in
33:53
Speaker 2: charge of it, despite the fact that The bases in
33:55
Speaker 2: the Middle East have now almost reduced to rubble. Very
33:59
Speaker 2: expensive bases reduced to rubble. So I'm just, my point
34:04
Speaker 2: to him is, well, China is not an aggressive power.
34:09
Speaker 2: It is not king of the hill. It says explicitly
34:12
Speaker 2: it doesn't want to.
34:14
Speaker 5: It has a different model where it's.
34:16
Speaker 2: You know, global south and anybody else is willing, let's
34:19
Speaker 2: grow together. Let's make the pie bigger so everyone can
34:21
Speaker 2: get a bigger slice together. not you know it's a
34:24
Speaker 2: zero-sum game i'm going to take everything i can uh
34:27
Speaker 2: which is the american model so i i'm hoping uh
34:31
Speaker 2: that there'll be a realization that you don't have to
34:34
Speaker 2: side with china because china china doesn't has not said
34:37
Speaker 2: to any country you can't have a relationship with the u.s
34:40
Speaker 2: if you're having a relationship with.
34:42
Speaker 1: Us china is not asking asking anybody to choose side
34:46
Speaker 1: china never forced anybody to choose side.
34:49
Speaker 2: No no there is there is one uh uh one exception,
34:54
Speaker 2: and that is, or two exceptions. One, if you do
34:57
Speaker 2: not recognize one, China policy, which is accepted by the UN.
35:03
Speaker 2: And if you align with the US in an active military,
35:09
Speaker 2: things like AUKUS and the Quad against China, yes, of
35:13
Speaker 2: course that matters. If I'm getting a gang together to
35:16
Speaker 2: attack your house, you can't exactly say, let's be friends.
35:22
Speaker 2: Of course, there's going to be consequences too. But those
35:26
Speaker 2: seem to be fading away a little bit. I noticed
35:28
Speaker 2: that India has had a very, very big change of
35:31
Speaker 2: heart towards the United States based on what they perceive
35:35
Speaker 2: as extremely bad treatment. Everything from insults to piling on
35:43
Speaker 2: all these restrictions to H-1B visas, the majority of which
35:47
Speaker 2: are used by Indians in the United States. offhanded comments, tariffs,
35:54
Speaker 2: and what they perceive as political interference within India itself
35:58
Speaker 2: in the general election that was held last time, and
36:01
Speaker 2: then also in Nepal and Bangladesh. So things are changing,
36:07
Speaker 2: and it's going to be interesting how the BRICS versus,
36:10
Speaker 2: you know, G20 or G8, I think the BRICS and
36:15
Speaker 2: G8 would probably be the right sizing. in terms of
36:20
Speaker 2: different interests that represent the old and the new, how
36:24
Speaker 2: those countries start to react to this. Because remember, everybody
36:29
Speaker 2: is looking at the elections and they say, OK, so
36:33
Speaker 2: it's going to be complete chaos in the United States.
36:37
Speaker 2: He still controls tariffs and things like that. He's just
36:41
Speaker 2: going to do what he wants. What do we do?
36:45
Speaker 2: And I think increasingly, where people want predictability, they're going
36:49
Speaker 2: to get closer to China simply because they don't have
36:51
Speaker 2: a choice. And that is not in the U.S. interests. And,
36:58
Speaker 2: you know, this goes back to my friend Jorge Haini,
37:01
Speaker 2: Ambassador Haini, that, you know, countries now have to start
37:07
Speaker 2: looking at the future. The past was, you know, this
37:11
Speaker 2: kind of idea of G2. That's not the reality. The
37:15
Speaker 2: reality is this is the United States with a few
37:18
Speaker 2: allies versus the entire rest of the global South who
37:22
Speaker 2: feel ill-used by 500 years of colonialism. Yeah.
37:30
Speaker 1: Well, one of the reasons for this electoral landslide in
37:36
Speaker 1: this past election is because American people are also sick
37:40
Speaker 1: and tired of these endless wars, all these foreign interventions
37:44
Speaker 1: That brought nothing but high inflation and high energy prices
37:49
Speaker 1: for ordinary Americans. They're fed up with that. But this
37:54
Speaker 1: also manifesting the past elections. Also, you know, let's remember
37:58
Speaker 1: Donald Trump came to power promising no more foreign interventions,
38:02
Speaker 1: no more wars. You know, and the president before him
38:06
Speaker 1: did the same. You know, Obama said, don't do stupid things.
38:10
Speaker 1: Don't be stupid.
38:13
Speaker 2: Politicians lie? Oh my goodness, I'm shocked.
38:20
Speaker 1: Now the real question is, now that American people have
38:24
Speaker 1: spoken again, do you think you will make any difference
38:28
Speaker 1: in terms of U.S. foreign policy going forward?
38:33
Speaker 2: No, not for the next two years and two months.
38:37
Speaker 2: Donald Trump has no reason. He's lost the domestic control,
38:44
Speaker 2: you know, influence on is the international side. How he
38:50
Speaker 2: shapes that, I don't know. But he's just, I mean,
38:53
Speaker 2: with Iran, he's trapped. What is he going to do?
38:56
Speaker 2: As I said, he can't make a worse deal than
38:57
Speaker 2: the one he tore up. And that'll be clearly evident
39:01
Speaker 2: if he does. The question is, does he survive that long?
39:05
Speaker 2: I mean, he is showing real signs of stress or
39:11
Speaker 2: dementia or something. I mean, it was His last, quote,
39:16
Speaker 2: appeal to the voters was derange. I mean, I don't
39:19
Speaker 2: know how else to put it. Why would people who
39:22
Speaker 2: are about to vote care about what color the sewer
39:26
Speaker 2: pipes are in his overpriced project, which is problematic? a
39:30
Speaker 2: disaster from day one? Why would you stand in front
39:33
Speaker 2: of an obvious boondoggle where you said you could fix
39:37
Speaker 2: it for $ 11 million and it spiraled into more than,
39:42
Speaker 2: I think it's more than $ 30 million, based on him saying,
39:46
Speaker 2: I got a guy, no bid contract, and then He
39:49
Speaker 2: didn't even listen to the guy who said, look, this
39:51
Speaker 2: thing has to be cured for so many days, otherwise
39:55
Speaker 2: it doesn't work. And instead of doing that, he drove
39:57
Speaker 2: his fleet of cars, heavy cars, multiple ton. You know,
40:04
Speaker 2: the Beast is a very, very heavy car. He drove
40:07
Speaker 2: it over it, which didn't help and would explain why
40:10
Speaker 2: there's all these tears in it. Not because somebody took
40:14
Speaker 2: an X-Acto knife and ran down the middle of the...
40:18
Speaker 2: of the pond unnoticed, despite all the cameras and park
40:22
Speaker 2: rangers around it. You have a situation where he's literally
40:29
Speaker 2: standing in front of his failures and urging people to vote,
40:33
Speaker 2: but not addressing them, talking about why this pipe is
40:39
Speaker 2: painted green because it used to be all rusty. I
40:43
Speaker 2: would say that that's a serious lack of judgment that
40:47
Speaker 2: there's nobody I know of who's involved in elections who
40:51
Speaker 2: would be saying that this is a really good strategy.
40:55
Speaker 1: I mean, he was also backing some of the worst candidates,
40:59
Speaker 1: you know, like he endorsed Vivek. and Vivek just destroy
41:04
Speaker 1: himself over attack ad. Attack ad that was produced by
41:09
Speaker 1: the same public relation company that produced that $ 200 million
41:14
Speaker 1: ad for Kristi Noem that got her fired. I mean, like,
41:20
Speaker 1: it's almost like nepotism bites you in the ass. It's like,
41:24
Speaker 1: you know, all the corruption and nepotism eventually actually has
41:28
Speaker 1: a cost.
41:31
Speaker 2: Well, yes, it does. But I mean, it is amazing
41:34
Speaker 2: because it's it's it's out there. It's, you know, you know,
41:39
Speaker 2: it's the same corrupt entity that Christine Noem gave a
41:42
Speaker 2: no bid contract. That's owned by, you know, the relative
41:47
Speaker 2: of one of her staffers. I mean, there is no
41:52
Speaker 2: attempt to hide it. Well, there's a small attempt, but
41:55
Speaker 2: it was a very clever. So, yeah, I mean, he he.
42:00
Speaker 2: He can't run away from this. He chose the candidates
42:04
Speaker 2: above the objections of the party, saying these guys aren't qualified.
42:08
Speaker 2: I mean, look at the guy in Texas, Paxton. I mean,
42:10
Speaker 2: he's turned in. I mean, he's been indicted, hit for fraud.
42:15
Speaker 2: He has multiple allegations of inappropriate contact. He took 200
42:19
Speaker 2: trips out of Texas on a private plane, mostly to
42:26
Speaker 2: be with his girlfriend. Yeah, I mean, embezzlement, you know,
42:31
Speaker 2: I mean, and this is the guy you pick to
42:35
Speaker 2: be your, you know, your standard bearer. I mean, and,
42:39
Speaker 2: you know, Vivek is saying, I mean, he just picked
42:44
Speaker 2: a bunch of and predictably they lost. So he can't
42:49
Speaker 2: do it now. He controls. and he was crowing, remember
42:53
Speaker 2: when he was crowing about how all of his candidates
42:56
Speaker 2: are the ones that are making it through the primaries,
43:01
Speaker 2: but then none of them are making it into the,
43:05
Speaker 2: through the general election. So he owns this, and this
43:09
Speaker 2: is why it's possible for a lot of the kind
43:13
Speaker 2: of dissident voices within the party who were kind of
43:16
Speaker 2: kicked to the side because they, adhered to values that
43:22
Speaker 2: had some sort of, whether you agree with it or not,
43:27
Speaker 2: they were cohesive. They believed in what they believed, whereas
43:30
Speaker 2: Trump believes in himself. So I think there's a strong
43:34
Speaker 2: argument that in the next few days, you're going to
43:36
Speaker 2: see some movement and the Republicans are going to have
43:39
Speaker 2: to make a decision whether they want to sink with
43:42
Speaker 2: Donald Trump or swim without him.
43:46
Speaker 1: What do you think they will choose?
43:49
Speaker 2: Well, what I'm relying on here is the ambition of J.D. Vance.
43:56
Speaker 2: He knows that if he sticks with Trump for the
43:57
Speaker 2: next two years, two months, his future is dead. He
44:02
Speaker 2: cannot run based on an unpopular president who's saddled with
44:07
Speaker 2: being a loser, who's taking the country down the road.
44:13
Speaker 2: How do you say yes? And I was his vice president.
44:15
Speaker 2: Trust me, I will help you. No, that doesn't work.
44:18
Speaker 2: He has to make some sort of clean break if
44:20
Speaker 2: he thinks he wants to do it. Otherwise, he has
44:22
Speaker 2: to decide that he'll stand out a term or two,
44:26
Speaker 2: let the Democrats make a mess of it, and then
44:29
Speaker 2: come in and claim that he can solve everything. But
44:33
Speaker 2: he's going to have to make that pretty soon. And
44:36
Speaker 2: this isn't a little bad. These election results are about
44:41
Speaker 2: as bad as you could possibly get for Donald Trump.
44:44
Speaker 2: He's now labeled a loser. He seems incoherent. This is
44:50
Speaker 2: the time, if you're plotting against him, to strike. He's
44:55
Speaker 2: at his most vulnerable right now. And if, as I said,
45:00
Speaker 2: if the Republicans are the ones who decide to impeach him,
45:04
Speaker 2: they can take so much momentum away from the Democrats.
45:10
Speaker 2: And if at the same time they say, oh, you know,
45:12
Speaker 2: we're going to release the Epstein files We're clearing the decks,
45:16
Speaker 2: releasing the Epstein files, let the chips fall where they may.
45:20
Speaker 2: We're impeaching Donald Trump because we discovered that he has been,
45:23
Speaker 2: you know, enriching himself and his family and friends, selling pardons.
45:30
Speaker 2: There's so many things that they could get. Then all
45:33
Speaker 2: of a sudden when the Democrats come in, what do
45:36
Speaker 2: they do? They just say, well, yeah, we would have
45:38
Speaker 2: done that. So it's really the only way that they
45:41
Speaker 2: can figure out a counter. Otherwise, they just sit there, they,
45:46
Speaker 2: as I said, they become accessories after the fact. They're
45:51
Speaker 2: tarred with, you know, Donald Trump. And quite frankly, the
45:56
Speaker 2: next two years are not going to see the economy
45:58
Speaker 2: improve because there's no plan. There's going to be no
46:01
Speaker 2: agreement between Trump and the Democrats. And as a result,
46:05
Speaker 2: you know, businesses will, there's no predictability and businesses don't
46:12
Speaker 2: invest unless they have some predictability. Right. It's a contingency
46:16
Speaker 2: if things go down.
46:17
Speaker 1: Aynar, the stock market is all-time high. The stock market
46:21
Speaker 1: is all-time high, and the unemployment figure is low.
46:25
Speaker 2: Well, yes, the unemployment figure is low. There's a lot
46:28
Speaker 2: of people who moved out of the workforce. But if
46:32
Speaker 2: you start looking at the growth, which looks quite good,
46:37
Speaker 2: but if you actually take out the amount that it
46:40
Speaker 2: has to do with these data centers, and the chips
46:45
Speaker 2: that are being done and all these projections, it's literally
46:50
Speaker 2: less than half of that. And last year, 52% of
46:56
Speaker 2: the investment, that new investment was around these data centers
47:01
Speaker 2: and across the United States, you have communities coming out
47:06
Speaker 2: and saying, we don't want them, which increases the cost
47:09
Speaker 2: of implementation, slows it down. But above and beyond that,
47:12
Speaker 2: there's a real question about the valuation. These are companies
47:16
Speaker 2: that assumed that they would have all the answers and
47:19
Speaker 2: that they could extract value from within the United States
47:22
Speaker 2: and globally. But everyone, if you wanted it, you had
47:26
Speaker 2: to go through them. And then the Chinese came, and
47:29
Speaker 2: these were proprietary systems. It's like they own the library.
47:32
Speaker 2: If you want to use it, you've got to pay them.
47:35
Speaker 2: And then China came and said, nope, we have an
47:37
Speaker 2: open library. Anyone can use it. Treat. You tell me
47:41
Speaker 2: which one is going to work. I mean, this isn't
47:44
Speaker 2: going to make a lot of sense to people, but
47:46
Speaker 2: China just announced that the amount of tokens, the amount
47:49
Speaker 2: of energy that went into training these AIs has now
47:53
Speaker 2: been exceeded by the amount of tokens, the amount of
47:58
Speaker 2: use of people using it. And then, you know, once
48:02
Speaker 2: you've covered the training, okay, that's it. There's a little
48:06
Speaker 2: bit of additional updating, things like that, but it's not
48:09
Speaker 2: like the initial training. So things are changing. They have
48:14
Speaker 2: not fully absorbed the repricing of their models. They're still
48:21
Speaker 2: worth trillions and trillions of dollars. You've seen some movement
48:24
Speaker 2: lately to move that down. There might be some euphoria
48:27
Speaker 2: in the stock market because people feel good that Trump
48:31
Speaker 2: has been taken down a notch. But what is the
48:34
Speaker 2: economic reality? Who's going to make economic decisions? in the
48:40
Speaker 2: United States with a divided Congress and the executive. So
48:46
Speaker 2: I think this is just a kind of meaningless euphoria
48:52
Speaker 2: that will soon go away when the reality hits. Once
48:57
Speaker 2: you start seeing these data centers not making it, then
49:01
Speaker 2: the chips are not going to be sold. And quite frankly,
49:04
Speaker 2: the AI entities are not going to be able to
49:08
Speaker 2: sell things know, 10 to 15 times the value of
49:12
Speaker 2: what you can get from the United States. I mean,
49:15
Speaker 2: from China, using an AI from China. Well, it's cheap.
49:19
Speaker 2: Now they can try to outlaw Chinese AIs as they
49:22
Speaker 2: have been doing. But with an internet and a VPN, well,
49:29
Speaker 2: so much for that. You can't keep people out. They
49:34
Speaker 2: could continue to try to double down on it, but
49:37
Speaker 2: people prefer free to paying lots of money, and they
49:41
Speaker 2: always find a way around whatever kind of obstacles are created.
49:45
Speaker 2: And this means less business for this business model. There's
49:48
Speaker 2: no way they can protect it. They can protect it
49:50
Speaker 2: perhaps at home, but that just increases the cost for
49:53
Speaker 2: American consumers and businesses. It doesn't help its competitiveness, whereas
49:59
Speaker 2: the rest of the world is saying, oh, we get
50:00
Speaker 2: it for free and you pay for it. Oh, fine.
50:03
Speaker 2: Let's compete. Go head to head. We have lower labor costs.
50:08
Speaker 2: We have lower energy costs. We have lower costs of
50:12
Speaker 2: using AI. Okay, let's go at it. Let's see who wins.
50:16
Speaker 2: It's just one of those things where you can't escape
50:19
Speaker 2: the realities of the numbers.
50:22
Speaker 1: It's even cheaper to build data centers in Asia than
50:26
Speaker 1: it is to build in the United States. It's not
50:29
Speaker 1: even just.
50:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, get beyond the build cost. It's the operating cost.
50:38
Speaker 2: I mean, 40% is energy. You have to cool these
50:42
Speaker 2: puppies down. You have to keep them operating and cool.
50:45
Speaker 2: And right now, you start looking at the cost of
50:48
Speaker 2: energy and the abundance of energy. Because right now in America, these...
50:55
Speaker 2: These data centers are competing with consumers because the grid
50:59
Speaker 2: system is antiquated and there's not enough power to do it.
51:03
Speaker 2: I mean, these things suck up a lot of power,
51:06
Speaker 2: tremendous amounts. And this isn't something that was built into
51:11
Speaker 2: the American system. So it's competing for scarce resources that
51:16
Speaker 2: pushes up energy prices. That makes people very angry. They're
51:20
Speaker 2: already angry about higher prices. The last thing they want
51:22
Speaker 2: to hear is that there's going to be a boost
51:25
Speaker 2: in their electricity rates. And the other thing about this
51:29
Speaker 2: is if the Republicans had hung on, given that Donald
51:33
Speaker 2: Trump said that this is a existential issue, America has
51:37
Speaker 2: to win. I don't know what winning AI means. You
51:41
Speaker 2: can be competitive, but you can never win because it
51:45
Speaker 2: keeps evolving. But that means that he's not going to
51:49
Speaker 2: push through a bailout for these companies. do not see
51:55
Speaker 2: the Democrats hopping up behind a bailout for these big
52:00
Speaker 2: trillion-dollar companies simply because they miscalculated and have not been
52:04
Speaker 2: able to produce the goods. There's already a massive $ 40
52:09
Speaker 2: trillion deficit. This year alone, they're adding another $ 2 trillion
52:13
Speaker 2: to it, and that has become structured deficit every year.
52:21
Speaker 2: They're adding around somewhere between $ 1. 6 and $ 2 trillion to
52:25
Speaker 2: this debt pile. They're already having problems with high interest
52:30
Speaker 2: rates on the debt. Besant is playing games where he
52:34
Speaker 2: is issuing debt at the one, two, and five-year level
52:40
Speaker 2: to try to keep the rates down and not issuing
52:42
Speaker 2: a lot of long bonds, these 10-year bonds, because he
52:46
Speaker 2: doesn't want to be stuck with an over 5% rate. Remember,
52:50
Speaker 2: every time one of these bonds matures, it has to
52:54
Speaker 2: be rolled over because they don't have money to pay
52:56
Speaker 2: them off. And when they do that, they are doing
53:00
Speaker 2: so at a higher interest rate. And then on top
53:02
Speaker 2: of that, they have to borrow more money because they're
53:05
Speaker 2: running a deficit every year and they're spending it more
53:08
Speaker 2: on the military and things like that. I think we're
53:11
Speaker 2: getting towards $ 50 billion for the war in Iran. It
53:16
Speaker 2: could be more. And it's going to continue. that money
53:20
Speaker 2: is going to have to come from somewhere, and it
53:22
Speaker 2: probably won't.
53:22
Speaker 1: Come from the United States. But as long as the U.S.
53:27
Speaker 1: dollar remains a world reserve currency, the U.S. can just
53:31
Speaker 1: continue to print money, right? I mean, they can just
53:33
Speaker 1: print out of this debt. They can just keep on
53:37
Speaker 1: printing and printing.
53:39
Speaker 2: I have this argument a lot with people who see
53:43
Speaker 2: themselves as neo-Keynesians. They say, well, you know, the U.S.
53:47
Speaker 2: can't default because it can always print money. You can
53:49
Speaker 2: print money, you know, but the value of the U.S.
53:53
Speaker 2: dollar will go down precipitously and your interest rates will
53:56
Speaker 2: go up. So then you end up printing more money.
53:58
Speaker 2: And at a certain point, it starts hitting an inflationary level. Thanks,
54:03
Speaker 2: because as the bonds become less valuable, all right, oh, yes,
54:09
Speaker 2: you get a decline in the U.S. dollar, but you
54:11
Speaker 2: get an increase in interest rates. So you can have
54:15
Speaker 2: one or the other. You can have low interest rates
54:18
Speaker 2: or you can have a strong dollar. You can have
54:21
Speaker 2: a weak dollar and high interest rates. You can't have both.
54:24
Speaker 2: So under both scenarios, the U.S. suffers. And there's no
54:30
Speaker 2: way out of it. I mean, Donald Trump came in
54:33
Speaker 2: this last time saying that he had this fantasy that
54:36
Speaker 2: he could devalue the dollar at the same time as
54:40
Speaker 2: keeping interest rates. rates low. He thought the key was
54:43
Speaker 2: just the Fed, have the Fed set rates low, that
54:46
Speaker 2: this would somehow affect the bond market. But the bond
54:48
Speaker 2: market is independent. They're based on risk. And you have
54:53
Speaker 2: to attract them in with central banks around the world
54:57
Speaker 2: shedding their U.S. securities. It does not harbor well. That
55:03
Speaker 2: means that they have to attract private money. And to
55:06
Speaker 2: get private money in, they need to put in higher
55:08
Speaker 2: interest rates. So I mean, they're in a no-win situation,
55:12
Speaker 2: but one that they created. They do not have a
55:16
Speaker 2: real policy. Remember when Besson was asked, OK, so how
55:20
Speaker 2: are you going to pay off this $ 40 trillion and things? Oh,
55:24
Speaker 2: we'll just grow out of it. What? I mean, it
55:31
Speaker 2: was such an off-the-cuff, ridiculous answer. There's no, in essence,
55:35
Speaker 2: he says, there's no plan. Just hoping it goes away. Well, how?
55:40
Speaker 2: I'm not going to tell you because I don't know.
55:42
Speaker 2: That's in essence what he said. So the U.S. is
55:46
Speaker 2: under a lot of pressure. As I said, these are
55:49
Speaker 2: own goals because they never came in with a real plan.
55:52
Speaker 2: And it's not going to get any better anytime soon.
55:56
Speaker 1: I mean, this is sad because the United States is
55:59
Speaker 1: still one of the world's richest countries with abundant natural resources.
56:04
Speaker 1: And I know a lot of Chinese companies would love
56:07
Speaker 1: to go invest in the United States. But Trump and the.
56:12
Speaker 4: Administration have completely made the environment so toxic it's almost
56:23
Speaker 4: impossible nowadays.
56:26
Speaker 2: You'd be pretty damn crazy to think that as a
56:29
Speaker 2: Chinese company you're going to the U.S. in anything other
56:32
Speaker 2: than selling sewing machine needles. And even then they say, well,
56:36
Speaker 2: maybe they're communists coming.
56:39
Speaker 1: National security national security threats.
56:44
Speaker 2: Yeah i mean it's it's it's it's really difficult yeah
56:47
Speaker 2: there is and you know we always like to talk
56:49
Speaker 2: about what is there some hope here and i think
56:52
Speaker 2: i think so in a weird way um what has
56:55
Speaker 2: happened with donald trump is brought about a crisis and
56:59
Speaker 2: from this crisis i'm i believe uh you're starting to
57:03
Speaker 2: see the beginnings of a new um group of politicians
57:08
Speaker 2: in Washington, new leadership. Ironically, it's coming from Muslims in
57:13
Speaker 2: some cases. The people that we hate are actually the
57:18
Speaker 2: only ones who are willing to step up with new ideas. Anyway,
57:23
Speaker 2: I think that these are people who are responding to
57:26
Speaker 2: the crisis. And they believe in a very, very different world,
57:30
Speaker 2: one that is in fact about making America great again,
57:33
Speaker 2: but making America great again, not by taking things away
57:36
Speaker 2: from other people, but by tendering to the needs of Americans,
57:41
Speaker 2: reducing the amount of money spent on the military, and
57:46
Speaker 2: instead start, let's revive our economy. In the United States,
57:52
Speaker 2: if you studied historically, we have had many crises like this.
57:56
Speaker 2: I mean, we when you're in the middle of a crisis,
57:58
Speaker 2: you think this is the worst. It could never have
58:01
Speaker 2: been any worse than it is today. But, you know,
58:03
Speaker 2: you can go back to Andrew Jackson, the Whiskey Rebellions,
58:06
Speaker 2: all sorts of places, Tippecanoe and Tyler, too. I mean,
58:11
Speaker 2: there are all sorts of times and eras where corruption
58:14
Speaker 2: was rampant, where, you know, in the late 1800s, you
58:17
Speaker 2: had the railway and steel barons battling it out, things
58:21
Speaker 2: like this, just shortly before they tanked the market. Yeah,
58:25
Speaker 2: it But historically, what happens is we have a crisis
58:30
Speaker 2: and then people emerge who can take it, whether it's,
58:34
Speaker 2: you know, Roosevelt or others. There have been times when
58:40
Speaker 2: Americans need a new leadership. And, you know, it is
58:45
Speaker 2: the tendency is to go on a straight line, assuming
58:48
Speaker 2: that you're right, even if you're failing. If you have
58:54
Speaker 2: a pattern that you've repeated and it's been successful for
58:58
Speaker 2: a while, you tend to keep repeating it even after
59:02
Speaker 2: it's failed, assuming that, well, maybe I try it again.
59:05
Speaker 2: It'll change. It'll go back to the old times when
59:08
Speaker 2: it was successful. In order to change that, you need
59:11
Speaker 2: to change leadership and thinking. And I do think that
59:14
Speaker 2: America is on the verge of that. You know, Pelosi
59:18
Speaker 2: and Schumer and all these people, they cannot last forever.
59:21
Speaker 2: I mean, just physically, I'm not wishing them dead. I'm
59:23
Speaker 2: just saying that they have outstayed their welcome. These are
59:26
Speaker 2: the same people who were, you know, when they were young,
59:30
Speaker 2: We're on the picket lines holding signs saying that, you know,
59:33
Speaker 2: get rid of these old guys who support warning and
59:39
Speaker 2: don't care about the people who will not resign. That's them.
59:45
Speaker 2: They're literally the people that they used to demonstrate against.
59:50
Speaker 2: And they don't even see their own irony. So change
59:53
Speaker 2: is coming to America. The baby boomers are fading away.
59:56
Speaker 2: I'm a baby boomer. I think it's high time that
59:59
Speaker 2: we start putting our investment and our faith in new
1:00:03
Speaker 2: generations with different ideas and priorities. We certainly have not
1:00:09
Speaker 2: done anything wonderful. We started out with good intentions, peace, love,
1:00:14
Speaker 2: civil rights, everything, and look at us today. It just
1:00:18
Speaker 2: has not been what we pictured. And as I said,
1:00:22
Speaker 2: the only hope we have is the future, and the
1:00:24
Speaker 2: future is not us. It is the newer generations, like yourself.
1:00:28
Speaker 2: All right.
1:00:29
Speaker 1: I just hope, well, I'm 50. I'm not that young.
1:00:33
Speaker 1: But I do hope the U.S. can change course before
1:00:38
Speaker 1: another Great Depression. Hopefully it doesn't take another Great Depression
1:00:43
Speaker 1: for America to truly change course because that would be
1:00:46
Speaker 1: very bad for everyone in the world.
1:00:51
Speaker 2: I agree. But, I mean, if you start looking at
1:00:52
Speaker 2: the parallels between the railway barons who at one point
1:00:56
Speaker 2: they were like– two-thirds or three-quarters of the value of
1:01:00
Speaker 2: the stock market. And now you start looking at these
1:01:04
Speaker 2: tech barons and things like that and how much they
1:01:06
Speaker 2: control the stock market and the fact that they're both fragile.
1:01:12
Speaker 2: You have very, very similar conditions. But out of that,
1:01:16
Speaker 2: you got new leadership resilience. As I said, I hope
1:01:19
Speaker 2: it doesn't come to that. I'm hoping that this crisis
1:01:24
Speaker 2: brings about an orderly transition to new ideas rather than
1:01:27
Speaker 2: a violent one or one that involves a tremendous amount
1:01:30
Speaker 2: of suffering. So I think that's as positive as we
1:01:35
Speaker 2: can get. I cannot be positive about Donald Trump. I'm sorry.
1:01:41
Speaker 2: He's not the man of the moment or the future.
1:01:44
Speaker 2: And right now, the political process has to change and
1:01:48
Speaker 2: people have to readjust their thinking. There are too many
1:01:51
Speaker 2: people in America who are suffering because of them. bad
1:01:54
Speaker 2: decisions made since the 1970s, which have basically relegated them
1:01:59
Speaker 2: to standing in place. Their real incomes have improved just
1:02:04
Speaker 2: so negligibly. The only lifeline that they've had is decreasing
1:02:09
Speaker 2: costs for cars and electronic goods and staples and things
1:02:15
Speaker 2: like this. But those days are over. We've now exhausted those,
1:02:20
Speaker 2: and it's time to start thinking about how Each country
1:02:24
Speaker 2: needs to start thinking about how it can use AI
1:02:27
Speaker 2: and the productivity that it frees up and how that
1:02:31
Speaker 2: can be shared. And I'm not saying you have to
1:02:34
Speaker 2: be a socialist. I'm just saying, okay, what do you
1:02:37
Speaker 2: do when you only need, instead of having 2% of
1:02:40
Speaker 2: your population producing all the food, you can have 0.2%
1:02:45
Speaker 2: of your population doing it and the rest are drones
1:02:47
Speaker 2: and robots, even pickers, whatever. What happens there? Well, you
1:02:52
Speaker 2: have all the food you need. If you can do that,
1:02:55
Speaker 2: you can have factories that are automated and they're run
1:02:58
Speaker 2: by robots 24-7. You're actually reducing the cost of the
1:03:04
Speaker 2: products themselves and necessities and also choice items and things
1:03:10
Speaker 2: like that. So there is productivity gains that are going
1:03:13
Speaker 2: to come with AI and robotics and things like that,
1:03:16
Speaker 2: the digital revolution. The question is, are they going to
1:03:19
Speaker 2: be distributed or given to the top 0.001% or are
1:03:25
Speaker 2: they going to be distributed in society? In the past,
1:03:28
Speaker 2: it's been very.
1:03:29
Speaker 5: Clear if you have a smaller and smaller but wealthier
1:03:35
Speaker 5: class of people and the rest of the people suffer,
1:03:38
Speaker 5: you tend to have social unrest and eventually that structure
1:03:45
Speaker 5: will fail.
1:03:46
Speaker 2: And there will be a new one. Oh, by the way,
1:03:50
Speaker 2: congratulations on your national day. Indonesian national day was, I think,
1:03:56
Speaker 2: last Thursday? Oh, Tuesday. Yeah. What's today? Wednesday. Monday or Tuesday.
1:04:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I'm a guest here. I'm a guest in Indonesia,
1:04:06
Speaker 1: but yes. Thank you.
1:04:07
Speaker 2: Your wife is Indonesian, so you can participate.
1:04:11
Speaker 1: Okay. I'm participating in everyone's holidays.
1:04:15
Speaker 2: So, well.
1:04:17
Speaker 1: This is, well, I'm glad we're ending on a slightly
1:04:21
Speaker 1: hopeful note. You know, I think it's, let's just leave
1:04:26
Speaker 1: it there. Let's just leave it on the high note.
1:04:28
Speaker 1: For people who want to follow you, Einar, where would
1:04:32
Speaker 1: they go?
1:04:34
Speaker 2: I write a sub stack called Asia Narratives, Asia Narratives
1:04:39
Speaker 2: sub stack. And if they like any part of what
1:04:44
Speaker 2: I'm saying, there's a lot more there. I put something
1:04:48
Speaker 2: in every day or other day and I do a
1:04:50
Speaker 2: tracker that is easy to absorb on a weekly basis
1:04:55
Speaker 2: what's changing in China and things like that. And it's
1:04:59
Speaker 2: voluntary if you want to pay fine, but if you don't,
1:05:02
Speaker 2: that's fine as well. Just sharing knowledge. I really believe
1:05:07
Speaker 2: that the true investment is in the next generations. And
1:05:12
Speaker 2: if you're going to be part of that, you need
1:05:14
Speaker 2: to mentor them. You need to give them as much
1:05:16
Speaker 2: knowledge and perspective as you can, but you have to
1:05:20
Speaker 2: allow them to make up their own minds and try
1:05:24
Speaker 2: to rearrange the priorities. Life is dynamic. Our answers yesterday
1:05:30
Speaker 2: aren't the answers of today. We have to have faith
1:05:33
Speaker 2: that younger people do have answers. If they don't, we're
1:05:38
Speaker 2: all in not a good shape.
1:05:41
Speaker 1: Well, they can learn from their own mistakes. Thank you, Einar,
1:05:50
Speaker 1: again for making the time to speak to us. And
1:05:53
Speaker 1: for everyone else tuning in, thanks for watching. Until next time.
1:05:59
Speaker 4: Bye-bye.