Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / The iPhone Fold: $2,400, No Face ID, and a Bet on Zero Crease

Transcript

The iPhone Fold: $2,400, No Face ID, and a Bet on Zero Crease · Elon Musk Podcast

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  give you 10 years of this show for free.
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  So one second of your time to hit the subscribe button right
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  now would help the show tremendously.
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  Thank you so much. Apple has ordered 22 million
• 1:21
  OLED panels from Samsung Display for its first foldable iPhone.
• 1:25
  That production target is more than 30% higher than what the
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  display industry has expected. I honestly didn't see those
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  numbers coming, and the foldable iPhone has been a rumor for
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  years, constantly slipping further into the future.
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  But now Foxconn is stockpiling components and mass production
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  is scheduled for summer of 2026. IDC forecasts that Apple will
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  capture 22% of the foldable market in its first year.
• 1:52
  So why does everyone think Apple is about to dominate a category
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  Samsung has owned since all the way back in 2019?
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  Now, the device is expected to launch in fall 2026 alongside
• 2:05
  the iPhone 18 Pro models like normal, and the price could be
• 2:09
  about $2400. Now we're going.
• 2:13
  To walk through the leaked design.
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  Specs. The technical features that
• 2:18
  Apple is betting on and what this means for Samsung's
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  seven-year head start in foldables.
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  And we'll be right back after this break to get into that.
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  Now Apple is finally building a foldable iPhone.
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  The company has been filing patents on foldable technology
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  for over a decade, but it never shipped any products.
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  Now, supply chain reports indicate the.
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  Foxconn. Entered the engineering
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  validation stage and is preparing for mass production
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  now. This could be a phone that folds
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  in half like a book, fits in your pocket when it's closed,
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  and opens into something the size of an.
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  IPad Mini. And it will be thinner than all
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  other phones on the market, guaranteed.
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  They wouldn't put out a brick, but here is a really key.
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  Point. Apple's using a book style
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  design that folds horizontally, similar to Samsung's Galaxy Z
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  Fold series. When closed you get a 5.5 inch
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  outer display that works like a normal iPhone.
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  When opened, the device reveals a 7.8 inch inner screen.
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  The photo measure between 9 and 9.5mm when folded and around 4.6
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  to 4.8mm when. Old folder.
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  That's thinner than any foldable Samsung currently sells.
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  Now the crease is the problem. Apple thinks that it is solved.
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  A crease is the visible line that forms along the fold of a
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  foldable display where the hinge sits.
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  Every foldable phone on the market has 1.
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  Apple is reportedly using a metal plate inside the display
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  that disperses the stress generated by bending.
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  The company is also using liquid metal in the hinges to improve
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  durability. And if Apple ships a foldable
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  with no visible crease, that would be a genuine first to the
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  market. Now the camera system AJP Morgan
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  Research report says the foldable iPhone will feature a
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  24 megapixel under display camera built into the inner
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  screen. Under display cameras hide the
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  lens beneath the screen so there's no visible cut out or
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  punch hole. And the technology exists on
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  some Android phones, but those cameras typically use 4 to 8
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  megapixel sensors because image quality suffers when light
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  passes through display layers. A 24 megapixel under display
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  camera would be a huge leap. That suggests Apple has achieved
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  something other manufacturers have not and are probably using
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  some sort of computational AI software to get a good look out
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  of this thing. And the photable iPhone will
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  skip Face ID apparently, and use Touch ID in a side button
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  instead. Apple needs to save internal
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  space and the Face ID sensor array is pretty bulky.
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  The face will also lack a physical SIM slot.
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  The rear camera system will be a dual lens set up with 248
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  megapixel sensors, which is less capable than the triple lens
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  system on the Pro models. So this is a new category with
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  its own set of trade-offs. The price is the number that can
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  make or break this device. Estimates range from 2000 to
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  $2400. Fuban Research, citing supply
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  chain data, expects the phone to cost around $2399.
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  Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 7 cost $1999, Google's Pixel 10 Pro
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  Fold cost 1799, and Apple would be entering the market at a
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  steep premium. Some think this is like an
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  iPhone Ultra, that it might be the name of it more than the
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  iPhone fold. Because iPhone fold be kind of
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  boring. It's like Galaxy Fold and Pixel
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  Fold. They want to be different,
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  right? So the iPhone Ultra.
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  So what do we know, right? Now a.
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  Survey from KeyBank found that 45% of iPhone users are
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  interested in a foldable device, but 65% of those people said
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  they would only consider buying one if it cost less than $1500.
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  It creates a huge gap Apple's expected price 60% higher than
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  the threshold most interested buyers set for themselves.
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  The company is betting that its brand, its ecosystem, and its
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  technical advantages will justify that premium.
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  In IDC, forecasted Apple will capture 34% of total foldable
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  market value in its first year, even though it will only have
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  22% of units shipped. That gap exists because Apple's
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  device will be priced so much higher than the competition in
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  dollar terms. Apple could become the biggest
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  foldable brand immediately, and by 2028, IDC projects Apple will
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  hold 34% of the foldable market by units, with Android brands
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  combined holding 52%. That's a huge shift.
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  Samsung is not standing still, though.
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  As usual, the company will launch something, and they
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  launched the Galaxy Z trifold this month, a device with two
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  hinges that opens into a 10 inch display.
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  It'll arrive in the US in early 2026, months before the Apple's
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  foldable. Samsung is also preparing the
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  Galaxy Z Fold eight in a second Fold model with a different form
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  factor. Huawei is expanding
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  aggressively, too, and IDC expects its foldable shipments
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  to nearly double in 2026 on the strengths of its Harmony OS
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  platform. In China now, the foldable
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  market is still pretty small. Shipments hit about 18.7 million
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  units in 2024, which is roughly 1.5% of the 1.2 billion
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  smartphones shipped globally. IDC expects that.
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  To grow. To 20.6 million units in 2026,
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  as Samsung's trifold launches early and Apple's device closes
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  out the year. And the category isn't niche,
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  but the margins are very high. Average selling prices for
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  foldables are three times higher than smartphones, and Apple
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  tends to be a catalyst for mainstream adoption.
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  The iPhone defined touchscreens. The iPhone defined tablets.
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  The Apple Watch set standards for wearables.
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  If the foldable iPhone follows that pattern, the entire
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  category could shift from early adopter novelty to something
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  ordinary consumers consider. Samsung has spent seven years
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  and seven generations refining its foldable tech.
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  Apple has spent zero. But Apple has a user base that
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  trust it to enter a category only when the product is
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  completely ready. Whether the foldable iPhone
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  lives up to that trust will determine if 2026 becomes the
• 8:48
  year foldables finally matter to the regular public.
• 8:53
  Hey, thank you so much for. Listening today, I really.
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  Do appreciate your support. If you could take a second and
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