Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Satish Ranchhod: Westpac Senior Economist on the latest Westpac Regional Roundup

Transcript

Satish Ranchhod: Westpac Senior Economist on the latest Westpac Regional Roundup · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Right now, though, we're going to Westpac. The regional economic
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: roundup is out. This is the October report. It's a
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: bit of a mixed bag. It comes also as Greg
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Smith from Devin Funds promotes an aggressive sledge hammer approach
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: to the OCR We've obviously got a cut coming tomorrow.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: But how big will it be? He wants one and
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: a half percent off by Christmas? That would require seventy
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: five basis points tomorrow and seventy five basis points in November.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Ranchold is the Westpac senior economists with us this morning statistic.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Good morning, Good morning Ryan.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: First of all, do you think aggressive cuts like that
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: are required?
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: I think that the scope to cut the OCI pretty quickly,
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  Speaker 2: but not at that sort of pace. While we've seen
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: that inflation's coming down, unemployed still high, and we've got
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: tired interest rate, so that makes the case to cutting
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: the OsO fast paced. We saw during the pandemic that
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: when you cut reads too quickly can't have unintended consequences.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: It could risk supercharging the housing market. Be a different
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: problem for us altogether.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Let's look at your region a round up, HOSPO, retail bad,
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  Speaker 1: Wellington bad. We expect those things we know those things.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: What were you told about new hiring from businesses.
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  Speaker 2: What we're hearing is that very few firms are looking
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  Speaker 2: at taking on staff right now. Those pressures are seeing
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: in terms of demands means that they are more cautious
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: about taking on stuff and a lot of them have
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  Speaker 2: actually been shedding workers recently.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Agriculture, tourism are they giving you a bit of hope.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: They are the bright spots of the economy right now.
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  Speaker 2: Tourism has been a boom for regions like Queen Sound.
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  Speaker 2: We're also seeing some better prices for some of our
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: key experts. That's been welcome for some of our rural regions.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Southland. I noticed you mentioned Southland and the report that
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: they are coming off a little bit. Yeah.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: SOUTHLM has seen some more mixed conditions recently. Spending there
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: has flattened off. But with a mix of conditions there,
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: especially that posmen in agri places, it's really looking a
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: bit more flat rather than weak.
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  Speaker 1: All right, thanks sa much. Just finally that the North
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: South divide, who is more optimistic right now?
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  Speaker 2: I think we are seeing some more positive conditions coming
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  Speaker 2: through in the South Islands. They've got that mix of
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: tourism and agriculture as well as other industries helping to
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: support sentiment in the North Island. It was clearly a
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: weaker picture, especially in Wellington for those job whis is
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  Speaker 2: being felt, as well as financial pressures right across the country.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Statists, thanks so much of your time, Satisha Ranchold with
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: US Westpac Senior Economists.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: For more from news Talks b listen live on air
• 2:39
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• 2:40
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• 2:43
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