Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Betting NFL Preseason Week 3 w/ Scooch and the AP Top 25 w/ Ralph Russo

Transcript

Betting NFL Preseason Week 3 w/ Scooch and the AP Top 25 w/ Ralph Russo · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network. Guy,
0:13
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Milman. Later on in the show, We've got
0:16
Speaker 1: a massive show. College football is starting this weekend. AP
0:19
Speaker 1: Top twenty five came out. It is a lightning rod.
0:22
Speaker 1: As always. Later on in the show, Ralph Russo, who
0:26
Speaker 1: is the college football writer for the AP, hosts the
0:29
Speaker 1: AP Top twenty five College Football podcast um at Ralph
0:33
Speaker 1: de Russo a p on Twitter Listen. He knows everything
0:36
Speaker 1: about the Top twenty five, so it's the perfect week
0:38
Speaker 1: to have h mom talk about the lightning rod that
0:40
Speaker 1: is the Top twenty five. Clemps in the top to
0:43
Speaker 1: how you use the top twenty five when you're thinking
0:45
Speaker 1: about betting, Areas of softness in the top twenty five
0:49
Speaker 1: that could be a value to betters, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
0:54
Speaker 1: He's coming on later in the show, but first, because
0:57
Speaker 1: it's NFL season, we're gonna get the book maker to
1:01
Speaker 1: the world from New Orleans, representing all the BOYD gaming
1:04
Speaker 1: books around the country. Mr Bob Scucci, that's the highlight
1:24
Speaker 1: of your day, scooch, it is. It doesn't get much
1:27
Speaker 1: better than that. Oh my god, it's so good. We
1:30
Speaker 1: already pivotal time in the NFL preseason. Do you know why?
1:36
Speaker 1: Why is that Week three? Week three the NFL preseason?
1:41
Speaker 1: Do you agree with me? Do you know what I'm
1:43
Speaker 1: talking about? Am I? Am? I? You know, yelling into
1:46
Speaker 1: the wind? Am I tilting it windmills? Do you well
1:50
Speaker 1: an opinion? You have the same perspectives as me. But
1:53
Speaker 1: but week three is the week that you're going to
1:56
Speaker 1: see probably the most time from a law of the
2:01
Speaker 1: UH first team players, the people, the skilled players, the
2:04
Speaker 1: people that the players that people recognize. Week four they
2:10
Speaker 1: rest them. Week one and two you don't see them.
2:12
Speaker 1: So I do think this will be kind of the
2:16
Speaker 1: most exposure that you'll get to some of the key players.
2:20
Speaker 1: All Right, So I agree. I appreciate you answering that,
2:25
Speaker 1: because at first it sounded like you either weren't listening
2:29
Speaker 1: or I didn't understand what I was saying, didn't agree
2:33
Speaker 1: with me. It wasn't quite sure. Sometimes I didn't know,
2:36
Speaker 1: you know, I didn't know if you were going in
2:37
Speaker 1: that direction. So you know, when I am honest to god,
2:41
Speaker 1: it's good. Yeah, it's the NFL preseason. It's week three.
2:47
Speaker 1: What other possible direction could I be going. I don't know,
2:51
Speaker 1: you're an unpredictable guy. I am, I'm an enigma. Yeah, anyways,
2:57
Speaker 1: how do you manage week three as a bookmaker? We've
2:59
Speaker 1: got basically every game going on on Thursday, Like almost
3:02
Speaker 1: every team is an Action on Thursday. It's gonna and
3:05
Speaker 1: I can't tell you. And I'd like to get your
3:06
Speaker 1: perspective on this for us at the Action Network. Download
3:10
Speaker 1: the free Action Network app, rate review, Subscribe to this
3:13
Speaker 1: podcast at Apple Podcasts, um check out our fantasy tools.
3:20
Speaker 1: I feel like we've been seeing a ridiculous amount of
3:22
Speaker 1: traffic and subs against NFL preseason betting guides, individual game guides,
3:29
Speaker 1: all this kind of stuff. Like I had been floored
3:31
Speaker 1: by the level of interest in preseason betting. Are you
3:34
Speaker 1: seeing that reflected in the community at large in Las
3:37
Speaker 1: Vegas and around the country where BOYD Gaming has operators? Oh? Absolutely, um,
3:43
Speaker 1: way more betting than in previous years. And I don't
3:45
Speaker 1: know if it's because there's you know, it's opened up
3:47
Speaker 1: in other jurisdictions and there's a lot of new operators
3:50
Speaker 1: and more markets to bet on, but uh, you know,
3:54
Speaker 1: being able to book a first half and first half
3:57
Speaker 1: total on preseason games on every game. I know it
4:00
Speaker 1: sounds kind of academic, but you know, it wasn't too
4:03
Speaker 1: many years ago that not every operator offered uh you know,
4:08
Speaker 1: in game wagering and first half and second half wagering
4:10
Speaker 1: on preseason games. Uh So, so yeah, it's it's it's
4:14
Speaker 1: more popular now than it ever was. Doesn't make it
4:17
Speaker 1: harder from a bookmaker standpoint, absolutely, because it's just more
4:23
Speaker 1: more you need to keep track of, um, you know,
4:26
Speaker 1: and I think key with preseason obviously is who's playing
4:30
Speaker 1: in for how long? And it changes, it changes right
4:34
Speaker 1: up until game time, and you know, and it's how
4:37
Speaker 1: much you trust, um, your sources, and how much you
4:40
Speaker 1: trust what's coming out of the kind of the coaching
4:43
Speaker 1: staffs narrative in terms of, you know, we want to
4:46
Speaker 1: get this guy a full quarter of play, and then
4:48
Speaker 1: it turns out you're only seeing you know, one series
4:51
Speaker 1: of downs, which doesn't come close to that quarter of play.
4:54
Speaker 1: And so our odds are based on what we know,
4:57
Speaker 1: and of course we adjust them with kind the money
5:00
Speaker 1: coming in, which might be you know, probably a more
5:03
Speaker 1: accurate uh depiction of what's actually going to happen on
5:08
Speaker 1: the field. You said, the magic word do you know
5:12
Speaker 1: what it is. Nope, you have no idea what I'm
5:15
Speaker 1: gonna ask you to elaborate on. No, can't predict you.
5:22
Speaker 1: That's true, as we've as we've made clear, I'm an enigma.
5:26
Speaker 1: You said, sources explain that to me, Well, I mean,
5:33
Speaker 1: we have a variety of sources that that we we
5:38
Speaker 1: use in the industry, and it could be something as
5:40
Speaker 1: simple as just you know, following uh people's Twitter feeds. Uh,
5:44
Speaker 1: and it could be uh more or more experienced handicappers
5:50
Speaker 1: who who have kind of a network of people that
5:53
Speaker 1: uh kind of delve into everything that's said from from
5:57
Speaker 1: all the coaching steps. So you're not meaning like you're
6:01
Speaker 1: on the phone with coaches and or people close to
6:06
Speaker 1: the organization and you're able to say, well, I got
6:09
Speaker 1: I got word that Jimmy Garoppolo is gonna be playing
6:12
Speaker 1: a series and not a full quarter in the third
6:14
Speaker 1: preseason game of the year, So I'm gonna power rate
6:17
Speaker 1: the differently. No, I you know, I'm not going to
6:21
Speaker 1: say that there's any inside knowledge that you know, the
6:25
Speaker 1: bookmakers have that the betting public doesn't have. I just
6:28
Speaker 1: think that the bookmakers probably have a more extensive network
6:33
Speaker 1: of of public sources and nowhere to kind of extract
6:37
Speaker 1: those that information that maybe the public just doesn't quite
6:41
Speaker 1: have the resources at hand. But it's all public. None
6:44
Speaker 1: of it is just kind of information that we have
6:46
Speaker 1: that the public doesn't. All right. So the first game
6:49
Speaker 1: of the year, Uh, I forgot who who even played?
6:53
Speaker 1: Right was the Falcons and the Broncos, And there was
6:58
Speaker 1: a ton of conversation around betting, and I think could
7:00
Speaker 1: sort of, you know it presage what we were going
7:02
Speaker 1: to see during the preseason here in the amount of activity.
7:07
Speaker 1: And I was in the Broncos. I won that game
7:11
Speaker 1: that covered by four. I think the line was two
7:13
Speaker 1: and a half, miracle cover, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Uh, there
7:17
Speaker 1: was some prominent people who are like, why would you
7:22
Speaker 1: bet on the preseason? That's crazy? And they got shouted
7:25
Speaker 1: down because of sort of people saying betting is a
7:29
Speaker 1: regular thing. Get over it. You sound like, you know,
7:33
Speaker 1: get off my lawn, old man, um. But do you
7:38
Speaker 1: think betting on the preseason is crazy? No? No, I
7:43
Speaker 1: will say that again on the same concept that is
7:46
Speaker 1: becoming more mainstream. I think preseason in a lot of
7:51
Speaker 1: prior years was mainly limited to the sharpest of betters,
7:55
Speaker 1: they would focus on a lot of angles that maybe
7:58
Speaker 1: we didn't have as odds makers and the general public.
8:01
Speaker 1: You know, if it was the Hall of Fame game,
8:03
Speaker 1: or if it was going to be a game televising
8:05
Speaker 1: their local region and they wanted to see their local team,
8:08
Speaker 1: they would bet on it. But it wasn't to the
8:12
Speaker 1: extent that it is now where where people are just
8:15
Speaker 1: really even if there's players that they don't know any
8:18
Speaker 1: of the rosters, uh, they still have an interest on
8:21
Speaker 1: on betting on a lot of these teams. And they're
8:24
Speaker 1: starting to read a little bit more about betting angles
8:27
Speaker 1: about certain coaches who have a uh kind of a
8:31
Speaker 1: history of of winning in preseason versus other coaches that
8:36
Speaker 1: uh kind of are just looking at players, uh don't
8:39
Speaker 1: necessarily have the final score in mind. They're looking at,
8:43
Speaker 1: you know, what we need to work on and who
8:45
Speaker 1: I want to take a look at here in certain situations.
8:48
Speaker 1: So I think there's angles that people are starting to
8:52
Speaker 1: kind of gravitate to that they didn't really know of before,
8:55
Speaker 1: and that makes it more fun and interesting, uh to
8:58
Speaker 1: bet on something, especially when you feel like you had
9:00
Speaker 1: a little bit of knowledge or an angle Yeah. But
9:03
Speaker 1: the flip side is it is excruciating right in a
9:06
Speaker 1: different way. Because let's say you had the total on
9:10
Speaker 1: the Broncos Niners last night on the Monday night game
9:13
Speaker 1: it ended Week two. The game in the first quarter
9:17
Speaker 1: was three nothing, The game through the first half was
9:20
Speaker 1: nine points, the total was forty, It ended at thirty nine. Yeah,
9:28
Speaker 1: it's a roller coaster ride. And just because you feel
9:31
Speaker 1: like you have an angle on something, doesn't you know,
9:34
Speaker 1: necessarily mean it's gonna it's gonna pan out that way. Um,
9:38
Speaker 1: you know, I think uh kind of an indication of that.
9:42
Speaker 1: The other night was the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas
9:47
Speaker 1: City Chiefs, and um, I think, uh, I think a
9:51
Speaker 1: lot of people got a little a little burned on
9:53
Speaker 1: some messaging there that they were going to see kind
9:57
Speaker 1: of a first team uh uh most of the most
10:03
Speaker 1: of the first half that you know, they really really
10:05
Speaker 1: didn't get. Um, Kansas City was actually Kansas City was
10:11
Speaker 1: supposed to play most of their first team at least
10:13
Speaker 1: that was the uh, the word out there that they
10:15
Speaker 1: were going to play most of the first half. And
10:18
Speaker 1: I think you saw the point spread minus four and
10:20
Speaker 1: a half in the first half when the Uh, the
10:25
Speaker 1: line for the game was minus three, So, uh, you know,
10:29
Speaker 1: that's that's what you're going to see in a lot
10:31
Speaker 1: of these numbers in preseason. If you know that Aaron
10:34
Speaker 1: Rodgers is going to be playing most of the first half,
10:37
Speaker 1: you're gonna see a first half line that that is
10:40
Speaker 1: going to be higher than the game line. And but
10:43
Speaker 1: again it doesn't always doesn't always pan out that way,
10:46
Speaker 1: but that might be your advice for people who are
10:48
Speaker 1: looking for advantages in Week three, which were coming up
10:51
Speaker 1: on this week and a lot of games on Thursday. Uh,
10:54
Speaker 1: you gotta really glean what the coaches are saying so
10:58
Speaker 1: you can get a sense of it was actually playing,
11:00
Speaker 1: because that's where you're going to get the truest opportunity
11:03
Speaker 1: after those first teams are out, Like you aren's game
11:07
Speaker 1: you are. It's it's almost like you're playing roulette exactly. No,
11:12
Speaker 1: it's it's a coin flip. You don't know what what's
11:15
Speaker 1: going to happen. You don't know who these players are
11:17
Speaker 1: and and and how they're gonna how they're going to react,
11:20
Speaker 1: and it's it is, it's a coin flip. And that's
11:22
Speaker 1: why I think focusing on on first half now is
11:26
Speaker 1: kind of an angle that a lot of professional betters
11:31
Speaker 1: are kind of going towards because it's kind of a
11:34
Speaker 1: more accurate reflection um and I'll use you know, I'm
11:38
Speaker 1: going to make a baseball analogy here for for preseason
11:42
Speaker 1: NFL football. In baseball, the first five innings. Betting on
11:45
Speaker 1: the first five innings has become really popular in the
11:48
Speaker 1: last five years, and professional betters have really found an
11:52
Speaker 1: edge there because it takes the bullped out of the equation.
11:55
Speaker 1: It takes those last three innings out of the equation.
11:57
Speaker 1: You're looking at those starting pitchers who who go five
12:01
Speaker 1: six solid innings. You look at three r ra s,
12:03
Speaker 1: it's pretty consistent, and you've removed a whole unknown out
12:08
Speaker 1: of your kind of betting, uh handicapping, And that's kind
12:13
Speaker 1: of what is going on with NFL preseason. You remove
12:17
Speaker 1: that second half, you remove that intangible, and focus on
12:20
Speaker 1: what you know more of with those starters. Well, speaking
12:23
Speaker 1: of first five, I've got the Angels Rangers first five
12:26
Speaker 1: over six playing right now. Angels scored three in the first. Uh,
12:32
Speaker 1: it's the top of the second. I'm feeling really good
12:35
Speaker 1: about it. According the Action Network gap UM, I have
12:39
Speaker 1: a very good chance of winning. I'm showing green dots.
12:41
Speaker 1: It means I got I'm potentially in the money right now,
12:44
Speaker 1: That's what it's telling me. Bob Scucci, you are the
12:48
Speaker 1: bookmaker of the world, and you're gonna have to make
12:50
Speaker 1: way for Ralph Russo, who uh is the premier AP
12:56
Speaker 1: Top writer. I guess he's the only writer coming the
13:01
Speaker 1: AP Top for the AP but still he's an expert
13:03
Speaker 1: and he's going to come on the podcast next. Sounds exciting.
13:07
Speaker 1: I'll step aside, step aside, step aside from your podcast, Gooch. Alright, alright, alright,
13:15
Speaker 1: next up on the Favorites, as promised. This guy has
13:19
Speaker 1: been doing Top twenty five for a P for a
13:23
Speaker 1: very long time. Knows everything there is to know about
13:26
Speaker 1: the Top twenty five for college football. So it's the
13:29
Speaker 1: right week to have month since we got a brand
13:30
Speaker 1: new Top twenty five, which some people would say is disastrous,
13:34
Speaker 1: other people would say is erroneous, other people would say
13:39
Speaker 1: is useless. I would say it's the best way to
13:42
Speaker 1: talk about college football. Ralph Russo of the a P
13:47
Speaker 1: at Ralph d Russo a P on Twitter. He is
13:51
Speaker 1: the host of the AP Top five College Football podcast,
13:57
Speaker 1: Ralph Russo, how are you, buddy, I'm good. What's going on, man,
14:01
Speaker 1: I'm good. I'm excited to talk to you like it.
14:03
Speaker 1: You're like a top twenty five legend um, and so
14:08
Speaker 1: this is the week to do it. That just means
14:09
Speaker 1: I'm old, man, That just means I am getting old. Well,
14:12
Speaker 1: it happens to all of us. It happens to the
14:15
Speaker 1: other every day. I got people like saying to me,
14:18
Speaker 1: this is gonna sound like humble break. Oh my god,
14:21
Speaker 1: I've been listening to your podcast forever. I want to
14:23
Speaker 1: be like, fuck you man. Yeah. Um, but you've been
14:28
Speaker 1: covering the top twenty five for a long time. You
14:30
Speaker 1: are sort of, uh, you know, you're the foremost expert.
14:34
Speaker 1: So now we got Clemson top number one, first time
14:39
Speaker 1: I think since Georgia was the first time number one,
14:44
Speaker 1: and what two thousand eight was that what it was?
14:47
Speaker 1: I believe it was two thousand eight. Georgia was there
14:50
Speaker 1: at the start of the season, not for very long,
14:52
Speaker 1: but uh, but yeah, that's the last time. Because you know,
14:54
Speaker 1: just the number one thing doesn't spread around all that much.
14:58
Speaker 1: There's not a ton of parody in college ball. So
15:00
Speaker 1: Clemson became the twenty third team to be to hold
15:03
Speaker 1: the preseason the preseason number one. That is all right,
15:06
Speaker 1: So as we are talking about the Top twenty five
15:08
Speaker 1: this week, it comes out and there's a lot of debate.
15:10
Speaker 1: It's like the original debate topic. Um, what are your
15:14
Speaker 1: thoughts in the top twenty five as a rancor as
15:17
Speaker 1: a statement as a judgment of value and quality in
15:21
Speaker 1: college football? Yeah? Well, first of all, very very help
15:26
Speaker 1: to put this very clear, I don't vote the AP.
15:30
Speaker 1: We picked the voters, we counted up, we we administer
15:34
Speaker 1: the pole. But employees for the AP don't vote. So
15:38
Speaker 1: I kind of look at it like a lot of
15:40
Speaker 1: fans and reporter other reporters do. I I sometimes look
15:43
Speaker 1: at it and go out. I don't really like that
15:45
Speaker 1: that what that team is there? Um, I would put
15:48
Speaker 1: this team higher, I would put this team more. I
15:50
Speaker 1: guess the difference between me and most fans. I don't
15:52
Speaker 1: get particularly angry about it. I sort of understand that
15:55
Speaker 1: there's there's a lot of different ways you can rank
15:57
Speaker 1: these themes. It's all sort of subjective. We're doing the
16:01
Speaker 1: best we can just to make an educated guests here.
16:04
Speaker 1: So again, I don't know where I might disagree the
16:07
Speaker 1: difference with me as I sort of can see the boat,
16:09
Speaker 1: see see both sides. I sort of I've been around
16:13
Speaker 1: voters and seen the votes long enough that I could
16:16
Speaker 1: sort of even if somebody got like, quote unquote an
16:18
Speaker 1: unusual vote, I can usually sort of see where they're
16:21
Speaker 1: coming from. And I would also always tell people like listen, like, hey,
16:25
Speaker 1: we don't want everybody to vote the same. That would
16:27
Speaker 1: be boring. Um, And if people vote really outside the box,
16:31
Speaker 1: that's kind of fun. I mean, that's kind of as
16:33
Speaker 1: long as you know, as long as you can justify
16:34
Speaker 1: your vote, that's kind of the fun thing. I think
16:37
Speaker 1: a lot of people look at the poll these days,
16:41
Speaker 1: and my people always ask me, are you surprise as
16:45
Speaker 1: anything in the in the rankings? And generally speaking, I
16:49
Speaker 1: think because nowadays we've evolved to the place where we
16:53
Speaker 1: have all these way too early polls right that we
16:56
Speaker 1: start ranking these teams, not the AP, but these teams
16:59
Speaker 1: start getting ranked January by some news organizations, and I
17:05
Speaker 1: think because of that, we end up with six or
17:10
Speaker 1: seven months of rankings leading into the preseason ranking. So
17:14
Speaker 1: I think it lends itself to a little bit of
17:16
Speaker 1: group think. And I don't know if that's not a
17:18
Speaker 1: knock on the voters. But I think if you've been
17:20
Speaker 1: seeing these early polls for six or seven months, I
17:24
Speaker 1: think you end up with a consensus on what the
17:27
Speaker 1: teams should about what the team should look like going
17:30
Speaker 1: into the season. So a couple of things. Number one.
17:34
Speaker 1: Every time you say because you sound so New York, well,
17:40
Speaker 1: I grew up in Queens. So how does a guy
17:42
Speaker 1: from Queens And this is a little bit of a sidetrack,
17:44
Speaker 1: how does a guy from Queen's end up being someone
17:48
Speaker 1: who is one of the faces of college football coverage
17:51
Speaker 1: a place New York City that is so disconnected from
17:55
Speaker 1: college football. Yeah, that's a good question I have When
17:59
Speaker 1: I was um and I I said, grew up in
18:02
Speaker 1: Queens and had my father didn't give much care about
18:05
Speaker 1: college football. You know, he married me a Mets fan
18:08
Speaker 1: and a Jets fan. Um, I just was sort of
18:12
Speaker 1: drawn in by Saturday football, you know, you know, seeing
18:17
Speaker 1: these games from sort of weird places, you know, when
18:21
Speaker 1: you grow up in Queens, like Baton Rouge might as
18:24
Speaker 1: well be the move, you know, Lincoln, Nebraska, Like what
18:27
Speaker 1: is that about? You know, Norman, Oklahoma? So like it
18:32
Speaker 1: just the football looked different. The players had the Terra
18:36
Speaker 1: away jerseys, and obviously they're playing lots of different styles.
18:41
Speaker 1: You know, I grew up in I was ten years
18:43
Speaker 1: old in nineteen eighty, right, so the NFL is already
18:47
Speaker 1: becoming sort of homogeneous. Everybody sort of looks the same.
18:51
Speaker 1: But you know, college teams are playing lots of different offenses.
18:55
Speaker 1: So I got hooked in my you know, ten, twelve,
18:58
Speaker 1: thirteen years old. That Braska team in three I think
19:03
Speaker 1: it was a two that lost to Miami, and that
19:06
Speaker 1: amazing Orange Bowl just really gripped me and it just stuck.
19:11
Speaker 1: Like I just I just I. The more I go
19:14
Speaker 1: into the sport, the more I liked it. And then,
19:17
Speaker 1: to wrap up the long story, when I moved one
19:20
Speaker 1: of my as an adult, I moved to Mississippi to
19:23
Speaker 1: work there for the AP And once you get that
19:27
Speaker 1: that taste of SEC football, it just took it to
19:30
Speaker 1: another level. And at that point I realized, this is
19:33
Speaker 1: the sport. If I can pick one sport, I love
19:35
Speaker 1: them all, but if I can pick one to be
19:38
Speaker 1: near and to sort of immerse myself in, it would
19:40
Speaker 1: be college football. So you mentioned three things there, uh One,
19:46
Speaker 1: Jamal Holloway microsier those Oklahoma Nebraska games in the Earth
19:54
Speaker 1: so defined college football, but also by the way to
19:57
Speaker 1: find a little bit of polling, because that was the
19:59
Speaker 1: era when the polls seem to have more influence than
20:04
Speaker 1: they ever had, right because they were still the way
20:07
Speaker 1: in which college football champions were somewhat being defined, No
20:13
Speaker 1: no doubt. I mean they the Coaches Poll and the
20:17
Speaker 1: a Peo Pole were basically the definitive word on college
20:22
Speaker 1: football at the end of the year as far as
20:25
Speaker 1: who we thought of as champions. Now, that obviously has changed.
20:28
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you something as someone again, who you know,
20:32
Speaker 1: the poll is a big part of what I do.
20:34
Speaker 1: It's a it's it's part of my brand. It's part
20:36
Speaker 1: of the reason why I have a good job. So
20:38
Speaker 1: I definitely don't knock the poll. But there's no doubt
20:42
Speaker 1: that the relevancy of the poll has changed and probably
20:46
Speaker 1: lessened to a certain degree as the BCS came around
20:50
Speaker 1: and now the College Football Playoff. But what I'll always
20:52
Speaker 1: tell people is the poll is the one consistent thing
20:56
Speaker 1: throughout the history of college football. Because we have the
20:59
Speaker 1: CVFP now out, and we had the BCS before, and
21:01
Speaker 1: we had the alliance before that, and before that it
21:03
Speaker 1: was a bit of a free for all. And you
21:05
Speaker 1: know what, in five or six years, we're probably gonna
21:07
Speaker 1: have a new playoff system, were a different type of
21:09
Speaker 1: playoff system. The poll is a constant. So the poll
21:14
Speaker 1: is one way to sort of tell the tale of
21:16
Speaker 1: college football, to sort of look back and say, when
21:20
Speaker 1: was the last time this team was this good? Well,
21:23
Speaker 1: they were number you know, so and so was last
21:26
Speaker 1: number one in Night five, right, And it's been that
21:31
Speaker 1: long since they were number one. So I think the
21:33
Speaker 1: polls sort of is a good way to quantify things
21:36
Speaker 1: in college football because it's the only consistent throughout years
21:40
Speaker 1: and years and years of college football. And that's why
21:43
Speaker 1: I still think it's relevant. That's why I still think
21:45
Speaker 1: the preseason poll is relevant and a good thing because
21:48
Speaker 1: it's just it's part of the fabric of college football
21:51
Speaker 1: and it helps sort of build a narrative to each
21:54
Speaker 1: season into its history. So to the two I said,
21:56
Speaker 1: you mentioned three things, and the answer of the things
21:58
Speaker 1: I'll mention are and you don't have to comment on this,
22:02
Speaker 1: I just recollecting you said. Mississippi. Uh, a close friend
22:07
Speaker 1: of mine lives in Oxford. He works at ESPN. I
22:10
Speaker 1: went down to visit him for a weekend in Oxford
22:13
Speaker 1: for a game, and walking through the grove is maybe
22:16
Speaker 1: a top ten sports experience, but the number one and
22:20
Speaker 1: my wife and I were away this weekend and we
22:22
Speaker 1: were sitting at the bar of this hotel we were
22:23
Speaker 1: staying at, and this other couple sat down next to us,
22:27
Speaker 1: and you know, as it were, you start talking and
22:30
Speaker 1: hanging out. And they asked me after they learned sort
22:33
Speaker 1: of what I did for a living, like my favorite
22:35
Speaker 1: sporting events, and I said, the greatest sporting event I've
22:38
Speaker 1: ever been to. You mentioned Baton Rouge L s U
22:41
Speaker 1: Alabama in Death Valley two thousand twelve when h L
22:45
Speaker 1: s U was I think number five, Bama was number one,
22:48
Speaker 1: and I think t J yelled in a J mccaren
22:52
Speaker 1: like that team and t J Yelden had like some
22:54
Speaker 1: twenty five yard run to win the game in the
22:56
Speaker 1: final seconds. Um easily the greatest footballs sparience in my life.
23:02
Speaker 1: The yeah, I mean the Southern football experience in those stadiums.
23:06
Speaker 1: Baton Rouge was one of the first. Because as great
23:09
Speaker 1: as Oxford is in Mississippi State, and I covered those
23:13
Speaker 1: the one that you know, this The one stadium that
23:16
Speaker 1: I the first time I was in it, it totally
23:19
Speaker 1: blew me away, was Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. I
23:22
Speaker 1: covered a game down there in the early two thousands
23:26
Speaker 1: that went to overtime. Missisippi State had a big lead
23:28
Speaker 1: and l s U came rumbling back and I had
23:31
Speaker 1: never worked in that state, never been in that stadium,
23:33
Speaker 1: and the stadium, the press box starts sort of shaking
23:36
Speaker 1: because because it's so loud in there. It's it was
23:40
Speaker 1: an amazing experience. And again, once you go down, if
23:42
Speaker 1: you like college football and you get a taste of that,
23:46
Speaker 1: you know that sec And the other thing that also
23:48
Speaker 1: happened with me. My brother moved to Columbus in the nineties, Columbus, Ohio,
23:52
Speaker 1: so I got a taste of that, of of what
23:55
Speaker 1: it's like to be in Columbus on a Michigan Ohio
24:00
Speaker 1: state weekend. And again when you get those that experience
24:05
Speaker 1: and understand the pageantry of it, it's it's just gets
24:08
Speaker 1: in your blood. You know. Again, like you know, the
24:11
Speaker 1: football may be better on Sundays, but the event is
24:13
Speaker 1: far better on Saturday. Yeah, totally totally agree, completely agree, um,
24:19
Speaker 1: all right, a p How do you think about it
24:25
Speaker 1: as a barometer? This is a betting podcast as a
24:29
Speaker 1: barometer for people who gamble? Is it? Well, let me
24:34
Speaker 1: just let me ask it without any valence. How do
24:36
Speaker 1: you think about it as a barometer for people who gamble? Yeah,
24:39
Speaker 1: I would be cautious of using it as a barometer
24:43
Speaker 1: for gamblers. I think that you know, again, this is
24:47
Speaker 1: not a knock on the pole. The pole rewards results, right,
24:53
Speaker 1: bare minimum results winns in losses, not how you won
24:57
Speaker 1: that game, not, you know, be a little I shouldn't
25:01
Speaker 1: say that. There's a little bit of hey, you maybe
25:03
Speaker 1: had a close loss, will ding you here? Hey, or
25:06
Speaker 1: excuse me, a close loss, so we'll give you a
25:08
Speaker 1: little credit for that. You had a weird uh, you
25:11
Speaker 1: had a close win against the bad teams, so we'll
25:13
Speaker 1: ding you for that a little bit. But it's purely
25:16
Speaker 1: sort of you know, wins and loss results driven. Whereas
25:21
Speaker 1: you know, as someone who's got a little bit of
25:23
Speaker 1: an analytical bent to myself, and I'll check in on
25:25
Speaker 1: the f p I s and SMP plus is and
25:28
Speaker 1: all those things. I love those the computer rankings. I'm
25:31
Speaker 1: sort of a moneyball guy. When it comes to baseball,
25:36
Speaker 1: you I understand that like that that pure win and
25:41
Speaker 1: loss is not necessarily predictive for the next win and loss.
25:45
Speaker 1: It's more of like how how you played and things
25:47
Speaker 1: along those lines. And there's all kinds of things that
25:49
Speaker 1: go into the results of a game that may be
25:53
Speaker 1: more predictive than than the poll, which is solely pretty
25:58
Speaker 1: much just concentrating on what are you won or lost?
26:02
Speaker 1: All right, that is valuable. That's valuable perspective. Because my
26:06
Speaker 1: next question is Utah Washington, Oregon. At the Action Network,
26:15
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson loves Utah, feels like they are decidedly underrated.
26:21
Speaker 1: Ore again is getting a ton of love, uh from
26:25
Speaker 1: a lot of pundits and it's number eleven. Uh. You
26:30
Speaker 1: recognize them as a trendy pick in your podcast, but
26:35
Speaker 1: you also warned we're under selling Washington. This is a
26:40
Speaker 1: great question from Matt Mitchell, super producer Matt Mitchell of
26:43
Speaker 1: the podcast. Does Ralph Russo think the number thirteen Huskies
26:47
Speaker 1: repeat as chaps? I, you know what, I have to
26:54
Speaker 1: write my predictions column today, tonight tomorrow, so and I'm
27:00
Speaker 1: definitely leaning towards picking Washington. I you know, I have
27:05
Speaker 1: a something I sort of a trope that I've sort
27:08
Speaker 1: of fall back on in college football, and that is
27:12
Speaker 1: you're sort of all you will be what you are, right,
27:15
Speaker 1: you will always be what you are. And I think
27:18
Speaker 1: once you've established a program and you have some stability
27:22
Speaker 1: in that program, there is almost nothing better than that.
27:25
Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons why Utah has been such
27:27
Speaker 1: a good a good program over the years because they
27:29
Speaker 1: really sort of know what they are. And my feeling is,
27:33
Speaker 1: you know, Utah is a little different because we haven't
27:37
Speaker 1: seen Utah be this good while at least come into
27:39
Speaker 1: the season with this much expectation, so they're kind of different.
27:43
Speaker 1: In Oregon obviously is trendy and has a superstar quarterback,
27:48
Speaker 1: so it's kind of fun to jump on the Oregon
27:50
Speaker 1: band wagon. And I think Washington is just Washington right now.
27:54
Speaker 1: They've got Chris Peterson, they've got a program that's been
27:57
Speaker 1: well established over the last few years. They've had a
28:00
Speaker 1: nice pipeline of hey, we lose this four star, but
28:03
Speaker 1: we replaced him with this four star. We just lost
28:05
Speaker 1: a bunch of guys in the NFL, but we have
28:07
Speaker 1: good replacements lined up. Um and I think it's sort
28:11
Speaker 1: of the power of the program and the power of
28:12
Speaker 1: stability that would lead me to having Washington maybe being
28:17
Speaker 1: a little undervalued, so to speak, especially maybe compared to
28:20
Speaker 1: Oregon and and have me probably pointing towards them as
28:25
Speaker 1: the PAC twelve champion. I will say this, it would
28:28
Speaker 1: be nice if I have seen, if I had seen
28:30
Speaker 1: Jacob Eason play in the last two years. The one
28:33
Speaker 1: thing that gives me some pauses what has his development.
28:37
Speaker 1: There's the guy who has been with a five star
28:39
Speaker 1: you know, prospect coming out of high school, transferred from Georgia.
28:43
Speaker 1: It has literally been almost two years since he's played
28:46
Speaker 1: in a college football game. You know, he is he
28:50
Speaker 1: turns into be you know, a five star player, not
28:53
Speaker 1: just the five of our prospect, but a five star
28:55
Speaker 1: player that could conceivably vault Washington up. It he is
29:00
Speaker 1: less than that, or you know, depending on how much
29:03
Speaker 1: less than that, I think it could sort of drag
29:06
Speaker 1: Washington down. So the the uncertainty of what Jacob Eatan
29:09
Speaker 1: is is the one thing that sort of worries me
29:12
Speaker 1: about Washington. All right, So you kind of walked away
29:15
Speaker 1: from Utah there for a second. Well, uh, you know again,
29:21
Speaker 1: you are what you are, right if you kind of
29:24
Speaker 1: go with that premise that you what you are, or
29:26
Speaker 1: liberal should say you are what you always have been. So,
29:29
Speaker 1: when was the last time Utah was a top ten team? Well,
29:32
Speaker 1: it's being you gotta go back to when they were
29:34
Speaker 1: playing in the Mount West and a couple of good
29:36
Speaker 1: years with Urban when they were you know, Kyle Winningham
29:40
Speaker 1: first took over there. In their history in the Pack
29:43
Speaker 1: twelve suggests that they will be a tough and physical team,
29:48
Speaker 1: but they are not really recruiting on a level that
29:51
Speaker 1: some of these other teams are. They're not bringing in
29:54
Speaker 1: lots of four and five star players, um And ultimately,
29:58
Speaker 1: you know, if you're not doing that, it's a lot
30:01
Speaker 1: harder to be really really good. If you can be
30:04
Speaker 1: good if you're a developmental program, but to sort of
30:07
Speaker 1: push into that next echelon where you go from good
30:11
Speaker 1: to a playoff contender to a team that can maybe
30:14
Speaker 1: you know, possibly sort of make an argument for a
30:16
Speaker 1: national championship. Utah doesn't really recruit at that level. So
30:21
Speaker 1: that's the one thing that sort of holds me back
30:23
Speaker 1: on Utah. Like I think they're the best team in
30:25
Speaker 1: the South, I would be surprised if they didn't play
30:27
Speaker 1: in the in the in the conference championship game, and
30:29
Speaker 1: if you get to the conference championship game, well you're
30:32
Speaker 1: in pretty good shape to win the conference title. But
30:36
Speaker 1: I see these sort of ambitious projections of Utah and
30:40
Speaker 1: possibly making the playoff and going undefeated, and that seems
30:43
Speaker 1: a bit much for a team that recruits at that level.
30:46
Speaker 1: And I'm not sure we'll have sort of the depth
30:48
Speaker 1: of players and game breakers that the really elite teams have.
30:52
Speaker 1: I disagree Utah is the best guy attend to want
30:55
Speaker 1: to win the Patch Wealth. But here's another area where
30:59
Speaker 1: you found disagree meant with someone on Twitter. Greg McElroy
31:03
Speaker 1: claimed that the SEC East could now be better than
31:07
Speaker 1: the SEC West, which is hog wash all respect But
31:14
Speaker 1: you agree with me. Tell me why you discuss this argument. Yeah, no,
31:18
Speaker 1: I totally agree with you. Listen. I know the record
31:21
Speaker 1: last year was the East beat the West. The overall
31:24
Speaker 1: interconference interdivision record last year, the East came out on top.
31:28
Speaker 1: Kentucky had, you know, a generational team last year. Kentucky
31:32
Speaker 1: is not going to be that team this year. I
31:34
Speaker 1: think Mark Stubis has done a nice job. I don't
31:36
Speaker 1: expect them a huge fall back, but they're not going
31:38
Speaker 1: to have the best defensive player in the country and
31:41
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, So Kentucky probably regresses a little bit. Missouri
31:45
Speaker 1: could certainly regress. The Missouri schedule sets up really nice
31:49
Speaker 1: for them to have a pretty good year. They just
31:50
Speaker 1: don't have a lot of challenges in their crossovers. I
31:53
Speaker 1: believe it's Arkansas and Old miss are their crossover. So
31:55
Speaker 1: you're getting literally the two worst teams in the West. Um,
32:00
Speaker 1: but you're losing an NFL quarterback. And Kelly Bryant's a
32:02
Speaker 1: nice player, but he's not going to be a number
32:04
Speaker 1: one draft pick or a number, you know, a second
32:06
Speaker 1: round draft pick like Drew lock was. UM. So I
32:09
Speaker 1: assume a little made, possibly a little regression out of
32:12
Speaker 1: Missouri regression in a sense that I don't think they
32:15
Speaker 1: will be as good, though the record could conceivably be
32:18
Speaker 1: better because the schedule is a little more accommodating. UM.
32:21
Speaker 1: I don't think Tennessee is quite ready to really spread
32:24
Speaker 1: its wings and fly under Jeremy Pruett, though I could
32:27
Speaker 1: see them being better this year. I think Florida might
32:32
Speaker 1: be a little bit of a step back here. Frankly,
32:34
Speaker 1: they don't look like the number eight team in the
32:36
Speaker 1: country to me. But as I as I said on
32:38
Speaker 1: other you know, conversations about the pole, I feel like
32:42
Speaker 1: once you get past number five, it should go from
32:44
Speaker 1: five to twelve. Like all those teams between six and
32:49
Speaker 1: eleven seemed like, well, is that seemed really that good?
32:51
Speaker 1: Like should Michigan really be seven? Should Florida really be eight?
32:55
Speaker 1: But somebody has to be there because you can't skip
32:57
Speaker 1: from six, that you can't skip from five. Well, um,
33:01
Speaker 1: So it's a long winded way of saying. I feel
33:04
Speaker 1: like there's gonna be a little regression in the East,
33:07
Speaker 1: and I don't see a whole lot of regression in
33:09
Speaker 1: the West. I feel like the West of anything. Hellas
33:11
Speaker 1: you know, Tech, the and M is probably getting better
33:13
Speaker 1: in the West, um and everybody, all the other powers
33:16
Speaker 1: seemed to be pretty stable. Ralph de Russo, you nailed this.
33:24
Speaker 1: AP College Football Writer, Extrodinaire, Arbiter of all Things AP
33:29
Speaker 1: Top twenty five The Lightning or Out of College Football,
33:32
Speaker 1: The AP Top twenty College Football Podcast at Ralph d
33:36
Speaker 1: Russo a p on Twitter. Good follow, good listen, good work,
33:42
Speaker 1: Thanks man, appreciate time. Talk to you. All right. I
33:47
Speaker 1: want to thank Scooch for coming on his podcast. I
33:49
Speaker 1: want to thank Ralph Russo from the AP Top twenty
33:52
Speaker 1: five football podcast. That was a great conversation. He is
33:55
Speaker 1: super smart. This has been the favorites. Download it, rate it, subscribe,
34:01
Speaker 1: review it, Listen to it on Apple, podcast radio dot com, Slash,
34:05
Speaker 1: the Action Network, or wherever you get your podcasts. Until
34:09
Speaker 1: next time, I love you, M