Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / 3 Million Vaccine Doses Ready To Go Out Next Week: JHU's Sauer

Transcript

3 Million Vaccine Doses Ready To Go Out Next Week: JHU's Sauer · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind the Bloomberg Markets
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. It's a weekly visit with
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Lauren's sour Time and it's always something we look forward to.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Lauren's assistant professor of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins University,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: which of course is assisted by the philanthropic efforts of
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: the owner of this radio station. But Lauren, thanks for joining.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Very thrilled today because Reuters is rewarding that the first
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: doses of vaccine could be dished out to seniors and
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: nursing facilities and nursing homes December twenty one. What's your reaction?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: You know, I think we all needed a bit of
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: good news, and we all were watching with um a
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: lot of anticipation to see how the meeting went yesterday
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: with the SBA, and so it's just great to see
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: everyone collectively working towards this emergency use off rezation the
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: outcome looks promising. I think we're waiting to see the
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: final details of what will be within the Emergency Use authorization,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: and then we're hoping to see you know, almost three
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: million doses go out sometime early this next week. So, Lauren,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: there's an interesting fascinating story on the Bloomberg terminal today
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: saying how the US ranks thirty second in vaccine buys
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: on a per capita basis. UM, where are you? Where
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: do you think the US is in terms of having
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: a proper supply, sufficient supply of vaccines to vaccinate its
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: population as I guess, you know, quickly as possible. Yeah,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: I think we would like to see, Um, we would
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: we would have liked to see more doses secured, but
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: the the challenge will be an administration. So the one
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: benefit of this UM somewhat slower rollout will be that
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: we really are very careful with these initial doses. UM.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: I think I saw that about two point and nine millions,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: So the of the initial available six point form million
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: fiser doses will go out UM in this you know,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: hopefully early this week, and that will give us time
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: to really UM perspect the supply chain and the distribution. UH,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: as everyone knows us and find now the Fiser vaccine
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: has some challenging cold chain storage, some challenging distribution issues,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: and so UM using this time to start a little
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: bit slow, not super slow. I mean, we have a
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: vaccine in the year which is absolutely incredible UM to
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: to really make sure that we're not going to waste
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: any doses, that we have a plan for how we're
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: accessing these harder to reach populations, UM, that we're getting
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: it to the people who need it most right now
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: is critical. I do think that there's going to be
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: a need for massive scale up UM that we're not
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: really quite ready for UM and and I haven't seen
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: that story yet, but it does make sense to me
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: that we will need to improve UM that capacity. I
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: think as more vaccines come online, particularly ones with more
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: improved cold chain storage issues, UM, we'll see that number
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: tick up. Is there any reason to suspect that it
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: will be difficult to scale that up? And given the
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: difficulties we had, you know, bringing in PPE for example,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: or other sorts of things that we needed very badly
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: earlier in the year, Yeah, it's I mean, that's a
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: great question. I think it's something that we're all a
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: little bit worried about. You know, we have not seen
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: significant changes to how our national supply chain has improved.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: We have a little bit of improved PPE situations, but
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: we're still having tons of challenges with not with national
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: level testing, with a you know, a national level strategy
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: for testing, a national level strategy for resource allocation. Um,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: and this is this is no different where relying on
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: the States to truly figure this out. And um, we're
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: getting support, but but the scale up is going to
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: be critical, and I think we'd like to see more
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: activity maybe around the Defense Production Act, around um, some
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: alternatives to production scale up. And then um, you know
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: many of us are seeing backups in our ability to
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: obtain freezers and dry ice and so these all have
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: to be worked out in these next few weeks or else. Um,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: it doesn't matter how much vaccine we produced, we won't
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: be able to distribute it basically and effectively. So Lauren,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: I guess initially here the market's going to look like,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: you know, the demand for these vaccines is going to
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: exceed the supply. But at some point presumably next year,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: mid next year, you know that that dynamical kind of
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: change and we'll have plenty supply, and the question will be, UM,
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: will enough people want to take the vaccine? Do you
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: expect at some point some type of public relations campaign
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: may be needed to to get people to convince them
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: to in fact take the vaccine so that we as
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: a siety can achieve her community. Yeah, I mean, I
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: absolutely think that. I think rebuilding the trust in science
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: across our country is going to be incredibly important in
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: these early weeks of vaccine distribution. I think people trust
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: their primary care providers, people us UM individuals they know
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: we're getting the vaccines UM to be spokespeople. But that's
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: a heavy burden on the people who are getting these
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: first rounds of vaccine UM. So we can't put all
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: of that reliance on them. We have to build UM
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: an education campaign and a trust building campaign and roll
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: it out as soon as possible. We can't wait until
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: we already have the vaccine ready to go UM. And
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: I actually think that there we're going to see a
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: little bit of this in this these first two phases.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: So I think there will be health care workers who
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: are hesitant, and I think there will be elderly and
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: vulnerable populations who are hesitant to receive vaccine, and I
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: think we need to we we many people have already
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: started working in this space, but we need to have
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: this as a primary focus, not a secondary focus to production. Yeah,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: because we do have a couple of days head start
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: on the UK, but there are some reports out of
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: the UK that might make people a little more hesitant
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: allergic reactions and so on. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I think everyone is watching the UK with sort of
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: fat breath to see what happens, and we have to
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: be prepared to learn, you know, in real time from
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: what's happening there and um and apply very rapidly lessons learned.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: And I think that will happen even within the process
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: of writing out the eu A building distribution strategies, you know,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: all of those things will be impacted by what's happening
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: right now in the in the UK. Hey, Lauren, thank
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: you so much once again for joining us. Always appreciate
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: your perspective. Laurence so our associate Professor of Eburgency Medicine
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, joining us for
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: the weekly discussion of COVID and the vaccine. It's time
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: to bring in Barry Rittle's expert opinion provider, and he
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: is a great column ount today. Of course, Barry, just
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: to remind everybody, is a Bloomberg Opinion contributor, also founder
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: of Rittle's Wealth Management and the host of Masters in
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Business on Bloomberg Radio. So, Barry, I presume that you've
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: been watching this week's activities with absolute combinations of disgust, horror,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: all the amusement, just like the rest of us. You
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: have a great column today saying that Airbnb in door
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: dash Show caused the best and worst of Uber. Explain
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: what you mean. Sure, we'll start with the basic model
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: that Uber created. You know, we all got consumed by
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the frat house and the Travis getting thrown out as
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: as CEO. But really they created a fascinating model where
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: they identified a massive inefficiency in a high margin business.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: They created an app that made it really easy for
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: consumers to consume those services. And you know we've all
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: used the Uber app. Uh, the ability to say I
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: want a small car, I want a big truck, I
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: want a luxury car, and track when it's going to
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: arrive and and not have to mess around with cash
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: or anything. That they just made that sort of transportation
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: service so much better than it was. And both door
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: dash and Airbnb have followed that same basic process. Um.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: With Airbnb, it's a massive addressable margin with an average
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: transaction price of a hundred and sixty dollars and a
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: an enormous profit margin. Uh. The problem with door dash
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: is that we can't say the same thing. So it's
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: interesting here Yet investors feel, what what do you make
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: I guess of the market this week and and the
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: the markets willingness to bid these stocks up so dramatically,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: What did you take away from it? I you know,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: someone saying that the bankers really blew it here. Um.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: You know, how often do the bankers get it right
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: and and be aware there's a ton of hindsight bias
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: involved when oh, you should have priced it higher. Well, yeah,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: you say that after the fact, so to be fair
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: to the bankers. Yeah, it's it's easy to tell what
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: the demand is after the fact, but very often the
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: companies want to really high um number. The bankers want
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: to make sure that there's enough appeal um in the shares,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: that there's demand not only for the I p O shares,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: but the quote unquote shoe that comes out afterwards the
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: subsequent shares that the bank seals, and and they want
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: to create a little excitement and buzz around the name,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: and and you know, you could argue they could have
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: priced this ten twenty higher. Um. Ultimately, the founders, the shareholders,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: they all benefit the insiders. So the company ends up
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: with the four or five billion dollars in cash instead
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: of six or seven billion dollars in cash. In the
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: scheme of things, when the price runs up, if they
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: want to do a secondary uh in six months and
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: put some more stock out, it's certainly an option. The
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: clue sitial. I suppose really that we'll have to wait
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: some time to see the answer to is can these companies,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: you know, have a quarter off a quarter of revenue
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: growth and profit berry well, for Airbnb with the much
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: higher transaction price, I mean, you could go look at
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: homes for rent for two three four thousand dollars a
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: night on Airbnb. What's the most expensive pizza you're gonna
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: get delivered from from door dash. That's the big difference
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: between the two business models. They both are sort of
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: positioning themselves as pandemic plays. Hey, get out of the city,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: get out of your apartment, come rent a place out
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: in the burbs, or where you can drive. You don't
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: have to go through t s A or on a plane,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: drive to an airbnb and and you know, wait out.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: The pandemic seemed to be a pretty good line that
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: that investors UM brought into door Dash and some of
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: their compared it is like Uber eats and and grubhub
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: and all the others. There's been a series of mergers there.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I don't even know who's who anymore, but UM they
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: also try to make that same sort of pandemic. Hey,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: you don't have to go out to eat. You know,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: we'll do a touch free delivery, you pay for it
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: on the credit card, will leave it on your doorstep.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: And you know that they certainly have been growing very
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: very quickly. The differences the people I know who are
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: who are currently using airbnb. UM. Almost to a person,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: everyone says, of course, we're going to continue using it
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: after the pandemic. The food delivery services are a short
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: term substitute for going to a restaurant, and I suspect
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: that post pandemic, the various food delivery aps and and
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: that certainly includes do our Dash and all the rest
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: we have to presume there's going to be some sort
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: of fall off in usage. The question is is it modest?
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Is it big? Is it giant? I don't think it's modest.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be more substantial than that. Yeah, Barry,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I actually I agree with your analysis of door Dash there,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: and again I was, I guess surprised at how well
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: embraced UH that I PA was in evaluation. It's garnering.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: So that brings me to my my question, Barry, are
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: you drawing any conclusions as it relates to the state
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: of the overall equity markets about how these two deals
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: were received and how they are being valid as it
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: suggests you maybe a certain level of frothiness in the market,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: akin to maybe what we've seen in some past bubbles. Um. So,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: frothy is a great word because it doesn't commit you
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: to saying that this can't continue any further. So I'm
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: with you on that. And and remember Alan Greenspan's infamous
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: irrational zuberan speech in the middle of the dot com
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: boom that eventually blew up. That was if you were
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: a seller on that speech, you missed an ungodly amount
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: of gains over the next four years. Remember a market
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: didn't peak until March two thousand, so frothiness. And we
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: certainly have seen this in in some back issuance UM
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: and some bit Clean Person and other crypto related UM items. Yeah,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: there's definitely some speculation going out there. And I'm not
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: in the camp that wants to blame Robin Hood on everything.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: That's an aspect of it. Boredom, people lacking the ability
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: to go out and play, to go to casinos to
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: watch you know, sports. We we keep watching one football game,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: whether it's college or or professional, after another get canceled.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: So you know, you have a lot of people who
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: are homeboard that might count for some of this um
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: and and you know, it's been such a long time
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: since we've had a sexy, exciting run of I p
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: O S. Companies have been staying private yea for longer.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: You know, Airbnb is a perfect example. That's a fairly
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: mature company that has um both strong revenue and and
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: profit growth. And you know, they had a few missteps
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: in the beginning of the pandemic, and they writed the
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: filter pretty quickly. They did pivot pretty quickly. Barry Riddh Holtz,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: thanks so much. For joining us here. Barry ridh Holts,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion calumnists and host of Masters in Business on
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio also found their chairman and chief investment officer
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: of rid Holts Wealth Management, giving us his thoughts on
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: the markets. Well, I'm sending a trend here in the
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: world of business. First it was Stevie Nicks selling part
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: of her catalog to some investors for about a hundred
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: million dollars, and then just recently Bob Dylan selling his
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: catalog to Universal Music Group for what is expected to
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: be at least two hundred million dollars. What is going
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: on here when we know we have somebody who has
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: the answers. Lucas Shaw, Bloomberg Entertainment reporter joins us here. So, Lucas,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: it seems to be a trend here is maybe some
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: of these aging artists really cashing out here. Yeah, you know,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: they are seizing on something that that has really been
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: happening in the music business now for three to five years,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: which is that the value of these copyrights has soared
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: because of streaming services which have more broadly listed industry
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: revenues and so and they've also made them a little
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: bit more stable, and so that's mein that's meant that
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of other investors have looked at music as
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: a really appealing asset after years of dismissing it frankly,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: as an industry that was that was dying um and
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: then the pandemic only added fuel to that fire. Because
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: you have a lot of artists who might ordinarily be
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: going out on tour and making money. Instead they're stuck
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: at home. So they're doing a mix of, Hey, I
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: want some extra cash to pay for more X, Y
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: and Z, and maybe I'll start planning for whatever my
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: future is. In the case of Stevie Nicks and Bob Dylan,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: who are both older in age, lucas, are they going
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: to get secured tied to these these securities or how
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: does it work? Because I could imagine that in the future,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: people are going to be listening to, you know, Bob
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Dylan's top you know, boots of Spanish Leather for the
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: next you know, centuries, but something like Dark Eyes might
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: get played once in a million years. Yeah, I mean
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: the thing so what Bob Dylan, and what Bob Dylan
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: told was his songwriting catalog, which can make money in
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: a couple of different ways. You know, songwriters get paid
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: if the music if a song gets listened to on
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: a streaming service, or if an album gets purchased, but
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: they also get paid if song gets played in the radio.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: They also get paid if you do what use uh
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: perform a sync. You know, you licensed that song for
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: an advertisement, for a movie, for a TV show. So
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: people can get pretty creative with someone like Dylan as
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: you know, you know, people are listening to his music.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Although he's not a huge act on streaming, I'm sure
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: that a lot of his money also comes from licensing
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: it for for advertisements. Um. You know, you will have
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: people who will just a math enough assets that they
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: think it will be a kind of a consistent generator
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: of revenue. And we've seen that play out time and
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: time again in the music business. I mean there are
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: um you know, there are investment firms that investment in
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: publishing catalogs as well as more traditional music investors. It's
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: something that has long been seen as a relatively stable
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: asset and something that people go to often kind of
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: in times of uncertainty in the market, because even as
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: people are losing their jobs, they're still listening to the radio,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: still listening to music Lucas you know, it's it's interesting.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: I followed David Crosby on Twitter and he admitted that
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: basically he's going to pursue a similar type of deal
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: for his music because because of the pandemic, he's not
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: touring and that's a big source of revenue for a
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: lot of UM music acts and streaming doesn't pay really
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: anything at all too publishers and artists, do you think
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: we're going to see more of this maybe from some
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: against some aging acts who may own their catalogs. It's
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: a kind of a financial access that. Yeah. I think
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: a lot of those acts that have relied on touring
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: to continue to pay the bills will go this route.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: As he's noted, you know, streaming has generating additional returns
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: for the broader industry. On an artist by artist basis,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: the numbers are pretty small unless you're a Drake or
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: a Taylor Swift, or a Post Malone or an Ariana Grande,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: especially if you're an aging act. If you're if you're
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: a David Crosby, chances are that a lot of your
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: fans are those that may still not have converted to streaming.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: They're buying physical physical sales have gone off a cliff
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: uh during the pandemic, or you're able to get them
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: to go and see you perform, and you can't do
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: that either. So really your only source of money would
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: be selling your catalog or if you can get somebody to,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: you know, put an old Crosby Spills Nash and Young
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: song on the radio. Excuse me? In the TV show
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: well speak you of Taylor Swift. What happens when she
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: gets old and wants to get rid of her is
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: does she have to? Does she sort of have a
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: bidding war between her and the private equity firms that
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: bought her already recorded songs? Well, so that that's again
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: to keep in mind what the people who just bought
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: her first six albums, those are the recordings and she
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: will own her She owns the recordings for all the
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: new music she's putting out. Universal distributes it, but she
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: ultimately owns the master's Does right pervert to her publishing?
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: She actually changed her publishers in the last year. She
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: used to be at Sony ATV she is now at Universal.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know the particulars of that deal, but I
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: would imagine she worked out sort of more of what's
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: called an administration or distribution deal, where in the long run,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Taylor Swift can own her music. When you're as powerful
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: as Taylor Swift or in the case of Bob Dylan,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: you get to demand ownership because everybody wants to work
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: with you. So the re recording, Lucas what what what
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: does that change for you know, the stream of money
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: with the recording her old albums. Yeah, So, because she
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: does not control the recording rights or the actual recordings
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: from her first album, what she would do is she
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: can control her publishing right the songs that she wrote.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: She would then make new recordings based off of those
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: lyrics and re release it and try to make it
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: so that those are the songs that people play. But
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: what we don't know is, let's say Taylor Swift does
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: end up rereleasing her her first six albums in some form,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: which she has talked about doing. If you're Spotify and
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: you're put putting together that this is Taylor Swift playlist,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: which is like their equivalent of the best the greatest hits,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: and you want to put one of those early Taylor
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Swift songs, do you pick the one from the initial
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: album which is the version that everybody knows, or do
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: you put the re record on there if you are
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: putting together some curated playlists for a user who really likes,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: you know, who wants to listen to kind of country
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: pop and that some of those early Taylor Sist songs Again,
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: which version and that's gonna you know, I'll be very
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: curious like to see what the streaming services decided to do,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: because they obviously want to maintain good relations with Taylor Swift,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: one of the biggest acts in the world. But there's
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: no telling, there's not really a precedent for fans gravitating
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: towards the rerecord over the original. Um So it's it's
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: a tricky situation and one that you know, we'll learn
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: a bit more about when we actually see what Taylor
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: Swift is doing with the rerecorded music. In the meantime,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: she just put out her second album of the year
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: and album I was listening some of this morning, evermore
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: let's give her add while we're at all, right, Lucas
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: not note we all sort of drifted off there into
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit of daydreaming as we think of Taylor
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Swift on the British Moor's recording music with American pop
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: stars and uh, you know, getting groups in like Jack
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Aunt and Off and so on to make sure that
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: she has another hit record. And uh, Lucas, thank you
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: for giving us up to date. Lucas also out with
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: the story today about the top streamers and Ariana Grande
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: being the top act in the world right now, which
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: is fascinating read. So, Lucas, thanks for joining us, and Paul,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: thank you for for indulging me in that last reverie there.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: It's amazing story. The economics there, this is Bloomberg. All right.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Let's get something just a little less optimistic now, and
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: that is the one billion empty hotel rooms for the year.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: We've been obviously looking at various numbers throughout this year.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: It's been a year of numbers, and this is not
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: one that we enjoy talking about. But Patrick Clark is
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: our real estate reporter and he will talk about it
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: to us. Patrick, how on earth did we get here?
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: A billion rooms have gone unsold or practically at least
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: nine sixty two million through last week. Yeah, well, when
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: was the last time you stayed in a hotel? Good point?
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: You know, there's there's the conference business, which is about
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: a third, hotel demand is completely on ice. Um the
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: you know, there's very little business travel happening. And while
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: there are are you know, some hotels that are in
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: the right end of beach locations where you can drive
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: to them, uh from you know, from big city that
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: are doing okay, you know, across the board. Uh, this
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: is this is really been the worst year and probably
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: the history of the modern lodging industry. And uh when
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: you stack up all the empty rooms, pretty soon we
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: will cross, um the one billion unsold rooms. Mark Hey, pat,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: when when you talk to these hotel companies, what is
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: there thinking as to how uh their business may recover
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: As we start getting vaccines into the market place, there's
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: a you know, expectation of a big ramp up in
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: the first half of the year. How are they thinking
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: about the timing and and you know, the back half
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: of this year and so on. I have to say
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: they're less optimistic than I am. I'm thinking about my
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: next vacation as soon as I get vaccinated. My family
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: is going to the beach. But but um, the I
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: think the I think there, I think hotels tend to
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: be more focused right now on the tough months that
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: they have ahead of them. Yeah, I mean the question
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: I have is we know that, you know, we didn't
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: pay to spend nights in hotels, but how many of
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: these rooms remained empty? How many of these hotels got
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: involved in schemes to rehouse homeless people for example. I
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: think that's been fairly marginal. I mean, I do think
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: there there there certainly has been a you know, a
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: downward drift in the types of business hotels have been
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: willing to take. Right. So like, if you're you know,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: a business traveler who is booking the room on their
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: corporate credit card and not thinking a ton about the
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: price they pay is a good type of business. Um,
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: And you know, the I was just sort of more,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: you know, the richer of the expense account, the better
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: of the business that is for the hotel um the
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: you know, I but I have The last time I
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: was in a hotel was about a month ago, and
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: it was a nicer hotel than I normally would have
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: stayed at because because it was offering a good rate.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: And I got there and there was an airline crew
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: checking in. And you know, I think if you talked
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: to big hotel owners or managers, they'll tell you yeah, well,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: we we are starting to take um, you know, types
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: of business where we have to negotiate a lower rate
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: than we would have otherwise. So you know, your flight
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: crews probably are staying at better hotels. UM. You know,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: there's certainly are medical workers. There's probably some government travel. Um.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: You know, even even people who normally would have sort
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: of recovered from uh you know, maybe like a minor
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: surgery or something in a U in a hospital or
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: instead possibly checking into a hotel thinking that, you know,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: better to be outside of a hospital environment. So there's
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: there's there, there are bits of business available, but you know,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: none of it makes up for what the hotels have lost. Well, Patrick,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: I'm with you as soon as I get the shot
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: hopping on a plane and going somewhere, that's for sure.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: Patrick Clark, real estate reporter for Bloomberg News. He joins
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: us on the phone from New York City, talking about
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: again that same very difficult situation. We're here for the
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: leisure and hospitality businesses, and now the question becomes for
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of them as vaccines get into the marketplace,
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: what is the patient scope of the recovery that you
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: can expect from an airline from a theme park from
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: a hotel um and I guess a lot of it
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: is just we'll have to wait and see, but expectations
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: are starting to build positively. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever a podcast platform you prefer. I'm
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at Bonny Quinn, and I'm
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio