Latest / Beliefs, Ballots, And BullDawgs / CFB WEEK 2 Recap
Transcript
- Greg: Hey, what's up everybody, and welcome to the weekly recap for college football week two edition of Whiskey and Winners. It's just me and my brother B. Nobles here today. We are ⁓ we're one man down without David Smith, but we had to ⁓ had to give him a break sometime. ⁓ we'll start off the show by recognizing our our first and only sponsor, Jake's Pool Service, in the North Georgia area. Jake is your guy. ⁓ Brian, it was it was not a great weekend. ⁓ you know, you and I spent the first weekend you were at my house and and we talked about ⁓ we felt like we were reading the lines well, seeing things well. You know, as we watched games play out, we felt like we were reading the board and and things were, you know, there was very few shocks to the system, so to speak. I gotta tell you, man, personally, I I was four and four again, but as I sat through there yesterday, I felt good as I was watching it. I I felt like I was having a winning day, and usually that's that's a good sign. ⁓ you know, most of the the of the four losses I Two of them I'd play again. I'll admit the Arizona play was absolutely nothing but a numbers play and a model play. I don't know nothing about either those things. I got no detail or inside information. That was just a model-only play, and it just didn't hit. But the damn model was almost 70% across the board for everything I ran through it. So I can't say the model's wrong. It just rated that one a little higher than some others. So I played it just because of the number. ⁓ and then obviously I think I think I got a misread on Georgia Tech. I think that is probably. Brian: Mm. Greg: That's a bulldog bias of me, because look, let's be real. At the end of the year, they're gonna give us absolute hell and they're gonna be more than we want to deal with. So I guess I'm just psychologically thinking they're better than they are because they always play us so darn tough. Maybe tech's just not a good football team. So I'm gonna I'm gonna downgrade tech a little bit. Probably won't be on them anytime soon in the next couple of weeks unless the books just hang a stupid number. ⁓ you know, Brown, we're we're we're fifty-four percent for the season as a team. For everything we've put out there, the goal is sixty, so still well within reach. ⁓ we are right at that fifty-four percent number, which is where you kind of be you know, teeter between profit break even, whatever. So it hasn't been bad two weeks. ⁓ but if I'm being honest, between the two of us, I think you'll probably agree before I turn it over to you. It it just feels like we've probably left some money on the table because I feel like we have read the board and seen things better than the rewards indicate. Brian: Yeah, I agree with you. I mean we still sitting about fifty four percent. I went five and six this week, this first week that I've had a losing record so far, and I got a few of these games I'll go through with ⁓ but ⁓ I would bet some of ⁓ in, some I probably wouldn't. I did adjust my power ratings off some of these. I'm like you the Arizona I mean a Arizona game I had a lean in that. I didn't have it. I would have took the same thing you did the seven seven once with the veteran quarterback. Greg: And and they were winning at half, you know? I was getting the I was getting seven and a half and they were leading at the half. So again, I don't I don't think it was a bad bet. I'm just being a hundred per hundred percent transparent for the folks that are paying attention. That wasn't anything I claim to have been personally on. That was just a model play. The model said we like it. And again, the model hit damn near seventy percent. So the model's not bad. ⁓ it just it didn't come home. And sometimes that's part of life and part of gambling. Brian: Yeah. Yeah, that's right. I mean I'm with you like on Georgia Tech. I mean I put too much stock into I guess Brent Key fixing them problems, but they got whipped up front just like they did against Colorado. I mean it does it was bad. I mean they gave up almost three hundred yards rushing. I fell into that trap. You know, you're getting two touchdowns almost at home, Georgia Tech at night. I said, Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna go with that, but After watching that team get beat up in the trenches, this is usually not what happens with him over these past two weeks. I don't know that they even make a bowl game. Greg: Well, and and and you probably covet that one a little bit like I do, 'cause y'all gotta play them every year as a Florida State fan, and so you probably a little bit put a little more stock into them being better just 'cause you're used to dealing with ⁓ I you know, first takeaway after two games of watching Georgia Tech is man, Haynes King was something special. Brian: No doubt. He was he was definitely ⁓ who was carrying ⁓ it looks like. ⁓ the ⁓ next one I'll talk of ⁓ I'll go into the ones that I lost and kind of give a feel on it so so we'll know going forward. I mean, Arizona State I got caught up in the Dylan Ham hike, you know, usually he's good in a big game. But I severely underestimated the talent gap between them and Texas A and ⁓ and they just got whipped. I mean, they gave up forty eight points, four turnovers. That ain't winning football. So it could have probably been worse than that. ⁓ Greg: What are what are your other takeaways from the weekend? It could have. I A and M's just got athletes who when you s when you spend the kind of money they've spent in the last four or five years, it's just hard to match up. Like outside of the the you know, the rest of the top eight to ten schools in the country, A and M's just gonna have better athletes than most of the schools they go up against week in, week out. Brian: ⁓ yeah. And then ⁓ going into the Alabama, Kentucky, I had under forty nine and a half. I feel like I would had the right read on that game. I mean, we had two defensive turnovers deep into the other territory. You had a ⁓ turnover on downs inside your own thirty five yard line. I mean that's a conference matchup. Quarterback making his first start on the road. I think I got burned on that one by just the short field turnovers. I would I would probably make that bet again. I would just It was y it I was on the right side of that one. I think it just didn't work out with those turnovers. Greg: Yeah, I I can I can low key admit to feeling a little bit grateful to have gotten home with Alabama minus the points in that one. They they looked so bad in the first half and and I even kind of texted you and David before the show and as that one kind of snuck up on me and as the Michigan Oklahoma game was wrapping up, I go, Man, that that Bama in election game started to have a weird feeling to me too, even though I was holding a Bama minus the points ticket. ⁓ I feel a little fortunate to get that one to come home the way they looked in the first half, but like like you and I were talking about, you just a a young quarterback on a road environment, the SEC, man, you just start throwing in turnovers and short fields. It's just hard to control the number. I I'm with you. I I it didn't play out the way I thought it would, but getting Bama to cover the points kinda in in some respects it kind of did too, you know? Brian: ⁓ yeah. And then moving on to the Georgia game, I had two bets in that one, you know, I had ⁓ minus twenty three and a half. That was easy cover. I mean, like we talked about Kirby, you know's gonna smother those teams in the in the first ⁓ half against a team that he's severely I mean, got a whole lot more talent than. I did lose on the ⁓ Western Kentucky team total under three and a half for the first half. I mean, what do you do when your backup quarterback turns the ball over on a fumble inside the twenty? I mean, there ain't Greg: Brian, it if if if if there's no other sign than the gambling gods having a sense of humor, the fact that the former potential hope of your program, Brock Glenn, came in as a backup and scored two touchdowns himself to cost you that ticket, I mean, that that's one of those sometimes you just gotta look up and go, Yeah, okay, well, I get it. That was a donation. I paying my dues. Brian: Yeah, and he was on the other side of ⁓ Georgia team scoring sixty six against them again, so Iowa State game moving into that one. I mean, you hit that under. That was good for the full game. I should have went with that also. I went with the the other route team total under seven and a half. I was on the right side of that also. Iowa State seven and a half points, just a little Greg: Yeah. Brian: you know, back up for our our listeners to know 'cause I'll probably make that same exact play again next year. Six out of the last twenty times I wa that they played each other, Iowa State scored over seven and a half in the first half. So that just happened to be one of those six Saturday nights. So I like the odds of them not doing that again back to back years for sure. So I feel like we both had the read right. We were similar on our line with that. You took the full game under, I took the team total. But It is what it is, part of gambling. Greg: That's it, my friend. Well, did you did you pick up on anything in particular you look forward to taking into week three? I've not even started looking at the schedule of the numbers yet. So I I I know I don't have anything much else to offer, but I wanted to open the floor for you if you've ⁓ if you do have any kind of look ahead that you've already picked up on. Brian: I got one more ⁓ loss that I talk about real quick 'cause it was kind of a it was the Army minus three and a half against South Florida. Army's gotta fix their problem about blowing games at the end. They did that a lot last year, they starting off doing it again this year. I mean when you're winning by ten points with four minutes to go in the game, that should have not been a sweat and then they end up losing the game outright. So what do you do? But ⁓ You know, my Montana State team covered again, so I'm gonna stay with riding with them. I see they're playing ⁓ nobody next week, so I'm interested to see what their line's gonna be. I'm sure it's gonna be somewhere in the fifties, so we'll have to decide if I'm gonna play that or not. I mean we got some some pretty good ball games coming up this week that we'll be on. I know that a lot of people's gonna wanna hear about Ole Miss and L S U. That's gonna take over the the weekend. Lane Kiffin going back to ⁓ Oxford. That ought to be a ⁓ a wild environment. Greg: Well, Brian, you you got a few more, ⁓ you got a few more strings and attachments to deal with, but I'm putting it out there for our our entire audience now. Put it on the record. Whiskey and winners, if we're ever invited to do a road show at Montana State, we are absolutely saying yes. We will book it. As soon as they call us and invite us, we will figure out a date and go, we will do a ⁓ we'll do a a road show live whiskey and winners from Montana State. Brian: Yeah, I can't wait. It's a it's a fun environment to be up there. I mean obvious go looking and looking again forward. I mean, talked about LSU Ole Miss. I'm obviously gonna be looking at Alabama, Florida State. That's probably gonna get up with ⁓ just a little hint there. ⁓ and then Georgia's going on the road at Arkansas, but I just watched Arkansas go on the road to Utah and it was ⁓ they got whipped bad up front, so I'm concerned about ⁓ what they may look like next weekend against Georgia. Greg: Yeah, I I don't know what the what kind of number the book's gonna give us on that one. I i I I just gotta imagine it's gonna be a number that I probably won't know part of either way, 'cause they're gonna be asking us to lay way more than I'm comfortable laying on the road in the SEC. ⁓ but I do agree that is that is a pretty bad Arkansas team and they should not be they should not be much opposition, but ⁓ now I mean I I I'm with you. I'm I'm ready to start digging in for for week three. I'm ready to ⁓ ready to get back with David on Wednesday night and hopefully put out some good content for everybody. ⁓ I will make a l a programming note. If for some reason you're watching me and we're upside down, I assure you I have changed nothing in my recording setup. For some reason, this platform is just decided to start throwing shit out there on YouTube upside down. So I'm gonna ⁓ spend some of my time this afternoon to try to figure out how not to be upside down on this video, but ⁓ that's it. That's all I've got for content. B you got anything you wanna say before we roll it out? Brian: No, I mean you know, we've we we put a lot of work into this, so ⁓ you know, we do a lot of research, try to put y'all good lines out there. So it's gonna you're gonna have those weeks in gambling, but I promise you this we're gonna put in the work this week before Wednesday to try to get back on the winning side this week. Greg: Yeah, and and I would absolutely, and we've thrown out the disclaimers before. Look, if if you are just blind tailing and firing your money out there because any of us says anything on this show, well, that's a you problem and you need help. You should look at us as nothing more than tools and resources that if you're already looking at a game and leaning a certain way and we can say something or provide a little insight that kind of reassures you or maybe talks you off a game, that's great. Consider us an extra data point before you make that bet. But please do not just be throwing any sort of money around just because me or this guy over here, who's the best I know at it, and I don't even blindfollow him. So please be re be responsible, be respectful, and ⁓ till then we'll get to work and see y'all Wednesday night. God bless. Brian: All right, see ya.