Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | June 29, 2024 | UFC 303 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA Show | June 29, 2024 | UFC 303 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:02
Fall systems, going clear, the lifting, what is going on? Everybody
0:36
Happy Friday. Hope everybody out there has some fun plans for the weekend fourth
0:40
of July. Next week, thirteen fights Baby pay per view season in Vegas.
0:45
Very excited. It's not Connor McGregor like we wish it was. It's
0:49
not Jamal Hill, it's not Carlos Alberg, it's not Rollin Tree. I
0:53
mean, it's this car has been back and forth crazy even today. One
0:57
Lopez Ortega. Nope, now it's at one fifty five. But hey,
1:00
right now we saw thirteen fights Big Marley only one waitess only waiting for I
1:04
think like two people on the scale year or and someone else. So let's
1:08
get thirteen fights, two hundred k up top a really nice three dollar contest,
1:12
two eighty thousand people in that one. I think it's a good card
1:17
DFS. I'm excited for real life. Big Marley is behind the sticks today.
1:21
You can see I am not where I usually am. I don't have
1:25
producing access just yet, so Big Marley's gonna be on top of it right
1:30
away. We appreciate everyone hanging out like button subscribe, Button helps us out
1:33
a ton. I can't even see the YouTube chat right now, so I'm
1:36
gonna have to pull that up as well and say hi to my people.
1:38
But first, if you want to join us at the nation, head over
1:42
FGWC fifteen gets you fifteen percent off great hosting duties right or producing duties by
1:49
Big Marlee. It wasn't the start Hoop and Tamba wanted yesterday. I have
1:53
not looked yet this morning, but hey, golf, it's a four day
1:56
thing. Today is very important. I know it's a pretty easy course seeing
2:00
a lot of birdies. Fantasy Golf World Championship is this weekend. Shout out
2:04
Hoop and Tambo. Hopefully can make a run one million dollars at first place.
2:07
If you're not a member, this will be going away at the end
2:10
of the week because that's when Fantasy Golf World Championship is over. Head Over
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Shipination dot Com gets you fifteen percent off monthly, six month or annual package
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projections, ownership MMA this week Big Boy Prizes, PGA Showdown, MLB always
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going on. Of course, next thing you know, NFL will be here.
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Get yourself locked in for fifteen percent. Also start messing around with the
2:34
ship demiser. So again, FGWC fifteen gets you fifteen percent off, and
2:38
of course shout out our sponsor sponsoring this show, Drafters. If you want
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a draft on the best best ball site out there, drafters dot com.
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Fifteen dollars contest, five hundred k up top two dollars contests as well.
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It's filling pretty fast. You go over to Drafters, you don't have account,
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from twenty bucks to one hundred dollars. In one hundred dollars, they will
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give you one hundred bucks to draft with. That's a lot of two dollars
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drafts right there. So head over drafters dot com. Get in, let's
3:07
talk some mma. Big Marley, Hey, how about you say hi to
3:09
the people on YouTube today? Since I don't have it up yet. See
3:14
what we got here? We got Ben, Phil Cody, Hebrew, Cheetah,
3:17
Eddie, Michael, Geekai for takedowns, got Rio again coming in the
3:22
chat, Nate and Eddie. Thank you guys all for tuning in. Absolutely,
3:25
thank you Big Marley for helping me out. I will get that YouTube
3:29
chat pulled up. Thirteen fights Big Marley Vegas, Big Boy Prize Pools again
3:34
what more could you ask for it? You could ask for Connen McGregor,
3:37
of course, But it's gonna be a pretty good card and Yuri and Alex
3:40
Prayer is gonna be an insane fight. I do not see how that fight
3:44
can be boring. Any broad slayd overviews? How are you doing on this
3:46
Friday? Any fun plans? What's going on in your world? Yeah?
3:50
Good to have thirteen fights on this card. Hopefully the none of the weight
3:53
misses are gonna end up getting canceled. Yeah, especially after the last few
3:58
eleven fight cards. To have a good pay per view with thirteen, I
4:01
think it's a really good Draft Kings card, So I'm looking forward to it,
4:06
playing on paying for the pay per view. Still don't even need that
4:09
counter fight. I'm glad they replaced it with two good ones. So yeah,
4:12
I'm looking forward to it. Hopefully we can come up with some good
4:15
money on this car too. Absolutely and again so the Lopez Ortego was supposed
4:19
to take place at one forty five, now one fifty five. Both went
4:23
in at one fifty five. They're good. Jeans Silva the only weight miss
4:26
so far one and a half pounds over That fight will be on though,
4:30
just find some of his purse. I say, we got right into it,
4:33
Big Marley. Thirteen fights to talk about. Let's lock in, try
4:36
and pick some winners. Give the people game theory wise again, we like
4:42
first place, but I like first place with as little people as possible.
4:44
I don't want with one hundred plus. So ownership salary game theory. Can't
4:48
just pick each side. Got to get some. We play a salary based
4:51
game against people. Ownership is very important. See how we can get different
4:56
but not too crazy where you're taking last place. First fight in then Baby,
5:00
absolute banger. To start it off, Ricky Simone Benicius de Olivera,
5:04
Venicia Salvador minus two thirty seven is Simone Venetias plus two h two On the
5:10
way back, this fight is minus one seventy to finish Simone plus one sixty
5:15
five inside the distance Benetius plus two hundred. I'll throw it to you right
5:19
away. Great fight to target classic styles. The wrestler in Ricky Simone averages
5:24
over five takedowns per fifteen. Venetia is coming off one of the nastiest knockouts
5:29
you will ever see. Good fight to start it off, man does Simone
5:31
get the wrestling going or does Venetias catch him. Yeah. I think it's
5:36
one of the best fights to target on the card, and you might know
5:39
where you're sitting right away when the card starts. Uh yeah, OLIVERA coming
5:44
off that beautiful knockout, people are gonna remember that. People love knockouts.
5:46
So I feel like the ownership's gonna come with OLIVERA on this card. And
5:51
I don't love those knockout type of guys, so I'll still get I'll still
5:55
get some exposure to Oliver, but Simone is my preferred play in this one.
5:58
Oliver was getting taken down by so Paj, the guy who was smaller
6:01
than him coming up a weight class on short notice. If he didn't gas
6:05
out in that fight, I feel like he would have avoided that knockout and
6:09
ended up winning the fight. Possibly. So somebody like Ricky Simone who can
6:13
go and land five plus takedowns no problem, as long as he avoids may
6:17
probably a big knee also, as long as he avoids getting knocked out.
6:20
I feel like Simone's gonna take this one on points, and this could be
6:24
a fight where he lands eight plus takedowns and controls a lot of the fight,
6:28
ten minutes of the fight, and scores one hundred plus in a decision.
6:31
So I like Simone quite a bit and I will get leverage to him,
6:35
and then on the OLIVERA side, it'll be more so of a hedge.
6:38
I'm not going to x him out of my player pool. I don't
6:40
want to be dead after the first fight if he does knock out whatever.
6:44
Fifty percent of my lineups to have someone in there, So maybe I'll get
6:46
like fifteen percent ol of AA, which I think will put me a little
6:49
bit underweight to the field, but it'll still give me enough hedge where I'm
6:53
still live for the rest of the card. I'm not pissed off watching the
6:56
other twelve fights, but give me someon in this one. I think it's
6:59
gonna be takedown City. I think he has the most takedown upside on the
7:02
card, and I would take over three takedowns on those little prop sites as
7:06
well. Yeah, I agree with all that, and I do think Simone,
7:11
and again our projections ownership will be up shortly after the show. We
7:15
do have Simone as one of the higher own fighters on the card, and
7:18
I think you can get some leverage on the olivera side like I like Simone
7:21
too, fits DFS perfectly, but everybody knows that if he loses, roughly
7:27
forty percent of the field will be dead. Oliveras over or less than half
7:30
of that ownership. You need dogs. He has one of the best inside
7:33
the distant props on this late at plus two hundred coming off that nasty knee.
7:38
So I'm with you. I'm on the Simone side, way better for
7:41
DFS, but I think everybody realizes that, and there is leverage on the
7:45
other side in a fight that's supposed to finish, and a banger of a
7:47
fight as well. So what you laugh in at, Big Marley? I
7:50
do have YouTube chat up, but I am on a laptop, so it's
7:54
it's a lot of say my name Big Marley, there you go take down.
7:59
Well, so we got Phil Phil terping' the lights or the fan or
8:01
something. Yeah, it's I had a background at first, you wouldn't have
8:05
to see the fan keep going always it's a sound in here, so I
8:07
do need that fan rolling. But then my WiFi and everything started legging.
8:11
Maybe that was the reason, so we didn't even want to mess with that
8:15
no more. So Yeah, I'll be back home in Wisconsin for the next
8:18
two months before the wedding, So you're gonna have to get used to the
8:22
laptop over here. I'll do my best. Let's keep it rolling. Next
8:24
fight on the card, we have second biggest favorite on the card, Riya
8:31
Suruia Seruya sure Ria Suria definitely butcher that name taking on Carlos Hernandez. Minus
8:37
four seventy five is Suruia plus three seventy five is Carlos Hernandez. This fight
8:43
is minus one seventy to finish Souria minus one seventy five inside the distance Hernandez
8:50
plus twelve fifty man. This is an interesting one and I have seen people,
8:54
actually a good amount of people make cases that this line is way too
8:58
wide, which makes sense. Soria and his UFC debut off the road to
9:01
the finals. Young kid, twenty two years old and just a primary grappler
9:05
wrestler. All he does, shoot early, do whatever he wants on the
9:09
mat, good control, good grappling. Hernandez can be taken down, but
9:15
he's twenty two years old, hasn't fought the best competition. Hernandez has UFC
9:20
experience. Now, it's pretty obvious with the UFC wants a Soario win Hernandez.
9:24
He goes from Tasura Tyra to this guy pretty much the same matchup.
9:30
Yeah, I think it's a really good Storia is a really good DFS play,
9:33
gonna come with ownership because of his style. The props all line up,
9:37
everything lines up for him, Carlos Hernandez. Though, if he can
9:41
survive what a one and a half rounds, two rounds, I think he
9:45
can get there. I still don't think I can get Hernandez in twenty entry
9:48
or less because there's a lot. I think you can make a case for
9:50
almost every fighter on this card, and again when I play twenty entry or
9:54
less, I want at least like four fades. Hernandez probably is one.
9:58
But I wanted your opinion on this one because I really like the Sooria side,
10:03
primary wrestler, grappler expected to finish the fights. It's like plus two
10:07
twenty five in round one two, it all lines up, it all checks
10:09
the boxes. But can we get some leverage on the Hernandez side do you
10:13
think in larger field stuff? Yeah, I'm not against it. I have
10:16
three fades currently, and Hernandez is not one of them. I do think
10:20
that the line could be a little bit wide because Hernandez is gonna be the
10:22
better striker. He's probably got better cardio as well, and if he does
10:26
win this fight, I feel like he'll probably score pretty well. He'll he
10:30
might be able to rack up points on a gas Seruya late in the fight
10:33
and maybe even get a late finish of his own. So I do think
10:35
Hernandez makes some sense at low ownership too, not against doubling the field,
10:41
but I do like other underdogs more so I probably will go closer to the
10:43
field, maybe just slightly above. And then Saruya is my preferred play just
10:48
because he's perfect for DraftKings. He's not gonna go out there look to strike.
10:52
He wants to get takedowns early and often good control. Like you said,
10:56
good submission game. But if he can hold up for three rounds,
11:00
doesn't even need a finish. He could score to one hundred plus points in
11:01
a decision win. With his style. He could go out there, get
11:05
five minutes a takedown or five takedowns, twelve minutes of control time and still
11:09
score well. So I like Seruya. I like a lot of the favors
11:13
though, so I don't know that I'm going to force him into lineups,
11:16
but if I can afford him, I absolutely want them. So yeah,
11:18
another good fight to target, but give me Seruja to win by either early
11:22
submission or at least win the first two rounds with grappling. I do think
11:26
he gets it done, but I wouldn't want to lay minus five hundred or
11:30
whatever he's at now one hundred percent, and I do think, and I
11:33
think you'll agree, so Payton Talbot will get to him minus two thousand favor
11:37
to win in round one in a tier of his own at ninety eight hundred.
11:39
Souria the second biggest favorite on the card at ninety three hundred. Totally
11:45
totally fine leap playing Seria leaving five hundred plus and not playing Talbot. Talbot
11:50
just a striker. Obviously the money line odds are a lot better for him,
11:54
but the style on Draftking like and same thing can be said Talbot and
11:58
Ricky Simone like there's leaving money. It's a good card to leave some money
12:03
if you think dogs are gonna come through, And we have a slight favorite
12:05
dog at seventy four hundred we'll get to later. So I definitely think it's
12:09
viable to leave money. I think it's a good thirteen card or thirteen fight
12:13
pay per view card for DFS, Like it's better than at eleven fights what
12:18
last week? Eleven fights a week before feels like it's been a lot of
12:20
pretty bad cards recently in terms of DFS. This one, as long as
12:24
we keep all thirteen main event will have ownership on both sides. Think it
12:28
is a pretty good card, so definitely can leave some money off a Talbot
12:33
place Eruiya Simone, et cetera. Let's get to a fight. I'm not
12:37
really looking forward to big boys Martin Budai taking on Andre Arlovsky forty five years
12:43
old man absolutely crazy, Orlowski making this twenty eighth walk to the UFC octagon
12:48
as a plus two fourteen underdog Buudai minus two fifty four this fights plus one
12:54
fifteen to finish Boudai plus one forty inside the distance, Arlovsky seven fifty.
13:01
So my thoughts are, let me pull up ownership quick. I'm not gonna
13:05
say it out loud, but it is what I expected. Budai will be
13:07
a pivot low owned in that top tier. Talbot will be higher on Simone,
13:11
higher own Suri a higher own. He is going to be one of
13:15
the lowest owned in the top tier. Arloski, I mean, I just
13:18
can never play the guy. He is one of the most He just has
13:22
the lowest ceiling of all time. You have to go back to like twenty
13:24
fifteen until he scored over I think it was like one hundred points. So
13:28
my approach here on the money line, it's Arlovsky all day. Like,
13:31
I think he makes fights boring and I think he can very well do that.
13:35
Budai, though, I'm gonna throw to you on this big marley.
13:39
If he gets a takedown or tries to shoot for a takedown, uses this
13:43
heavy frame on top. That's how he can make the altimal. I do
13:46
see the path plus one forty inside. The distance is not bad at all.
13:50
And if he does try and get it to the mat, I think
13:52
he can have success. And when he's on top, I don't expect Arlovsky
13:56
to get get up, so I will play Buda in chalk your lineups.
14:01
However, A I don't just gun in my head. I don't think this
14:03
fight's on the optimal. I think it's pretty much a fade. However,
14:07
people see it that way and it's gonna be one of the lowest own combined
14:09
fights on the card. Budai Is might prefer DFS play because of the ceiling,
14:15
but at this money line, it feels like it's our lost scal all
14:18
day and it's gonna be a close decision and Narlowski might get the nod if
14:20
he can keep it on the feet. I expect it to be low volume,
14:24
boring, the winner score awful. Even if oar Loosti wins the decision
14:28
at his price, I still don't even really like him, So yeah,
14:31
no ar LOSTI for me. In DFS, I will play some budai as
14:35
a pivot up top and chalky lineups, but I don't love it. But
14:39
if I'm betting this fight, it's a clear dogger pass in Narlowski. How
14:41
do you see it? I agree with everything you said. I'm not looking
14:46
to play Boudet at minus two fifty because he's coming off one of the most
14:50
pathetic performances I've ever seen. Going out there with a game plan to tire
14:54
this guy out by blocking punches with his face didn't work out well for him.
14:58
But I don't think he's gonna have that same issue with Arlovsky. Rolovski's
15:01
not very dangerous. I think if Arlovsky's gonna win this fight, it's gonna
15:05
be more of a split decision type of fight. And you're right, he
15:09
probably won't even come close to a ten X even if he does get that
15:11
done. So Arlovski is one of my three fades on this card. I'm
15:16
looking to find more fads, but I got three so far. And then
15:18
Boudet is kind of a perfect pivot away from a lot of people who are
15:22
gonna be very chalky. At ninety one hundred dollars, he probably needs a
15:26
finish, but plus one forty's that's not bad. So I think he does
15:30
make sense. I think he should look for takedowns here, and if he
15:33
does, I think he could finish the fight on the map. Forty five
15:35
year old Arlovsky, I don't even know if he has any interest in getting
15:39
back up. He might quick tap if he gets his arm taken in a
15:41
komoro or putting a rear naked choke. So I will get some Boudet exposure,
15:46
I will x out Arlovski, but I only want Boudet, and as
15:50
a pivot away from the chalk, it's not somebody who I really feel good
15:54
about scoring. Well, it's just that he's the way that you could take
15:56
this card down solo instead of getting all that Peyton Talbot or Seruja or Pifer
16:03
Chuck instead. So yeah, you broke it down perfect. Yeah, I'm
16:06
glad. We see it the exact same like you. If Boudaye somehow is
16:08
the highest score in the top tier like second or third, that is when
16:12
you might see a solo ship or at two hundred k, if some mom
16:15
Pifer Suria all those guys outscore them, like yeah, that's when you'll see
16:21
a lot a better chance at a split. Now, I see, I
16:23
wouldn't want to play Boudae and fade the main event like that, I think
16:26
is lighting money on fire in lineup said, I'm fading the main event.
16:30
Give me all the Talbot if I can fit on Suria all those guys instead.
16:33
It's when you're playing Macy Chase on is a favorite at cheap ownership the
16:38
year or Prairie Aside you're leaving zero dollars, That's when I think it's okay
16:42
to play Budaye. But yeah, we see it the same, which I
16:45
always love to see. Let's keep it rolling next fight on the card.
16:49
Again, I appreciate everyone hanging out. It's light. Bun subscribe button helps
16:53
us out a ton. Next fight, another interesting one right here, Gillian
16:56
Robertson taking on Michelle Waterson. Excuse me. Minus one eighty is Robertson,
17:02
plus one fifty five is Waterson. This fight is plus one thirty to finish
17:06
Robertson plus one sixty five inside the distance Waterson plus six point fifty. Yeah,
17:12
I mean a fight that's more than Robertson. A very good grappler,
17:17
wants to get the fight to the mat. Not the best takedown offense and
17:21
entries, but when she gets it too the mat, very dangerous. Waterson,
17:25
solid takedown defense, just an average fighter all around. She's getting a
17:30
little up there in her UFC career. Can she stuff takedowns? Big Marley,
17:33
And even if she does, I'm gonna throw it to you. On
17:37
this Waterson wins a decision. How many strikes is she landing? Assuming then
17:41
she stuff in takedowns, she wins the striking exchanges, which I don't even
17:45
know if that's certain. She wins a decision seventy seventy five. Do you
17:51
want that? Like I'm gonna play some Waterson and keep her in my pool,
17:55
but because I think she has more upside than our Lawsky. But it's
17:57
one of those that's like, Man, even a win, I just don't
18:00
think there's really if you tell me four dogs win on this card, I
18:03
would want no Waterson because even in a win, I don't think she gets
18:07
there. But if only two dogs win, or three dogs win, or
18:10
one dog win, seventy could be enough at this price. Or tell that
18:12
goes up there and puts up one forty five somehow, and it's like,
18:17
yeah, like stars and scrubb is what you need in seventy is good.
18:19
Robertson we know as the upside. So I'm definitely in on her. The
18:23
inside of the distance prop shows that. But I'm picking Waterson as the dog
18:27
at this price. So talk to me, big Marley. I've been conflicted.
18:30
Interesting, Actually, Waterson's another one of my fades. My fades are
18:36
three fights here in a row. But it's just similar to Ourlavski, where
18:40
I just don't think she's gonna be able to do enough. She should be
18:41
the better striker in this fight, but I don't think she's gonna stuff every
18:45
takedown. Just keep the fight on the feet. I feel like she might
18:48
need a knockout to have any real ceiling, and I don't trust that at
18:52
this at their sizes, So I think if she wins, it's another one
18:55
where it's a close split decision. She gets the better of the striking,
18:57
but she does get taken down and controlled for a while, and she's not
19:00
scoring during those moments. So I think if Waterson wins, she's scoring close
19:06
to ten X. But I don't even think she's getting over ten xt here,
19:08
So I like other underdogs more. I'm gonna fade Waterson and Robertson.
19:14
I don't feel great about her winning, but if she does win, I
19:18
feel really good that she's gonna score well. She has ten UFC wins.
19:21
She averages one hundred and two DraftKings points in those ten wins, So if
19:25
she's gonna win this fight, she's getting takedowns, probably getting a submission against
19:29
somebody who was one in seven or No. No. One in six in
19:32
her last seven fights. So this just looks like a setup for Robertson to
19:36
get the fight to the MAC, get a submission, look good doing it.
19:37
So I will be overweight to Robertson. But Waterson is my second fade
19:42
on the card. Third one is coming up next. There you go,
19:47
tipping your hand. Yes I'm good, William, but thanks you for making
19:49
me laugh. It's the same water bottle and almost always drink out of.
19:53
Let's keep it going. Next fight on the card you said is going to
19:57
be a fade for you, and I think the side is gonna be a
20:00
fade. I think I know what side that might be. Peyton Talbot taking
20:03
on ynamis Gomory minus eighteen hundred is Talbot's plus nine hundred on the way back
20:10
is Gomory. This fight's minus two thirty to finish. This is what's crazy.
20:15
So this fights minus two thirty to finish, but Talbot inside the distance
20:18
is minus two fifty. Like sometimes you get that weird stuff in MMA that
20:22
makes zero sense. You're betting it and you're on bet online. Obviously take
20:26
the fight to finish instead of Talbot to finish. Now, Gomory on the
20:30
other side is plus fourteen hundred. It really comes down to just ninety eight
20:34
hundred is Talbot. The next highest is ninety three hundred. I think there's
20:38
some dogs on this card that might win, but it's not like salary so
20:41
loose or like we have multiple favorites that are cheap. The mid tier is
20:45
solid, so you can go Talbot, mid tier, mid tier, mid
20:48
tier, find a dog. But at the end of the day, I
20:52
just find like Simone can outscore them, Suria can outscore them if Pifer gets
20:56
an early KO, which I don't love the Piper side as much comparing him
21:00
to Talbots. But it's so much easier to leave money on the table,
21:03
and you know people will try and get Talbot if they have the money to
21:07
get there. So I think I'm just gonna hope some of these other guys
21:10
outscore them. Now I will play some Talbot, but maybe that's playing Talbot
21:14
without the main event or something like that, or still trying to leave a
21:17
little money. He has all the upside. He's favored to win in round
21:19
one. Good volume. The Moory dude isn't good cast one of my bigger
21:25
bets. Last fight for Talbot against Simon, Like, I think he's a
21:27
real deal. I loved him since Contender series, but ninety eight hundred is
21:32
a lot of cheese, man, so I take them as overweight. I
21:36
debated going underweight. I said I'll be fine if I fifteen percent Talbot or
21:40
fifty five percent Talbot, because if I fifty five percent and I already think
21:42
I'm getting different enough, sure like sign me up. I don't think that's
21:47
going to be the case. And if I have fifteen percent, yeah,
21:49
I mean he can put up one twenty and still not be enough. So
21:53
yeah, I Talbot by whatever, But that's kind of how I'm approaching it.
21:56
How how are you seeing Talbot in DFS? Yeah, I feel like
22:00
he's probably gonna get enough ownership where I don't want leverage to him at ninety
22:04
eight hundred, just because that's such a hefty price to pay against a primary
22:08
striker, and he can be held down a little bit. If Goamury can
22:12
go out there and land a couple takedowns, we could take away some points
22:15
from Talbot if he makes it out of the first round, finishes in the
22:18
second or a third round. He just might not get there. He might
22:22
get out scored by those other people that you mentioned. So I would feel
22:25
more comfortable going closer to that fifteen range rather than the fifty five range.
22:30
Yeah, somewhere in there'd be fine with me. I think it's more of
22:32
a ship Tomizer type card where I let it control it. But I would
22:34
rather go down five hundred dollars to Seruja or or Ricky Simone as well.
22:41
I definitely see me having a lot more Ricky Simone ownership than Talbot. But
22:45
Gamoury's gonna be a fade for me. He went oh for four on takedowns
22:48
in his last fight. He went oh for twenty four and head strikes in
22:52
his last fight. Come on, buddy, what are you doing out there?
22:56
So yeah, I just don't see how Goomoory has any chance in this
22:57
fight. It's all what does Talbot? I could see him finishing in any
23:02
round. I could see him winning thirty to twenty five on the scorecards.
23:06
I expect him to put up a good score, but he has to put
23:08
up a great score at ninety eight hundred dollars. So I plan on being
23:12
underweight to Talbot full fading Gomori in this one. I like it makes a
23:15
lot of sense to me, And yeah, like one twenty might not be
23:19
optimal. I mean, if you tell me he gets one twenty, sign
23:22
me up, of course, But you need dogs and play an ownership game
23:26
or a salary game. I should say in that aspect, play a salary
23:30
game, like if Simone gets one fourteen, that could be on the optimal
23:33
instead because of the savings and what it gets you for the dogs. So
23:37
if you think a lot of dogs come through on this card, I think
23:38
you can jam Talbot more than others. I think might probably we see a
23:42
couple of dogs come through, But Simone and Suria we did talk about,
23:47
cheaper guys have just as much upside through the wrestling and the grappling, and
23:52
even like Gillian Robertson, like at the end of the day, Robertson wants
23:55
to get it to the map takedowns, she gets an early takedown or something
23:57
some control time in the first round that could outscore Telbot or at least get
24:02
close enough for a lot cheaper. So yeah, we see it pretty similar
24:06
if I can get tell of it, and I think the lineups somewhat different.
24:08
Sign me up, but it's a little harder to do. Next fight
24:12
on the car this has been the only weight miss so far. Charles Jordaane
24:17
taking on Gen Silva minus one fifteen Jordayane minus one Zho five is Silva.
24:22
This fight's plus one ten to finish Silva plus two hundred inside the distance Jordayne
24:26
plus three seventy five, so Silva missed weight by one and a half pounds.
24:33
This one's interesting, Big Marley, I'm gonna throw it to you because
24:36
it's slightly favored to go the distance, and if that's the case, probably
24:41
more than likely doesn't get there. It's right in the mid tier with great
24:44
fights the main event Diego Lopez Brian Ortega, but it's also pivot off of
24:48
those fights. Jordaane and Silva can be high volume, but I don't know
24:52
how much it'll take place on the mat. So if it's a striking for
24:56
fifteen minutes, even if they land one hundred significant strikes, sure that's gonna
25:00
be enough. Silva big time power, which shows in the plus two hundred
25:03
inside the distance compared to Jordaan's plus three seventy five. So I guess because
25:08
of the four hundred savings too, my preferred side Silva, but I don't
25:12
know. Man Like again, this is if I'm going this fight over the
25:15
main event or Lopez Ortega, then I'm not playing Budai. I'm fine eating
25:19
more chalk. But if I'm playing like Simon Talbot Suria and leaving zero dollars.
25:26
Maybe this is the fight I'll get to, hoping it out scores an
25:29
Ortega fight or something like that. So I'm indifferent to this fight. I'm
25:33
excited in real life Jordaine's fun. Silva can be fun, but DFS wise,
25:37
I'm a little indifferent. Yeah, I'm kind of the same. I
25:41
don't know what to do with this one. I feel like it's gonna be
25:44
more of an Emmy type fight for me, where I don't want either one
25:47
of them in single entry. But I'm cool with the ship demiser giving me
25:52
fifteen to thirty percent of either one of them. I mean, Geene Silva
25:56
has high ceiling because he will march forward and throw some bombs, so he
25:59
could get a knockout break the slate at seventy nine hundred. But I just
26:03
feel like Jordaane is just a more proven, little, smoother, more technical
26:07
striker overall, so I like him to get the win. But if they're
26:11
not getting knockouts, I don't think that they're gonna score great in a decision.
26:15
I don't know that either one of them wants to look for takedowns,
26:17
and if they do, I doubt we're getting more than two or three takedowns
26:21
from either one of them, so I prefer Jordayne. But if I need
26:25
that four hundred bucks, I'm absolutely fine if the ship to my Ever,
26:29
if the ship to Miser gives me more silver exposure than Jordaane, But yeah,
26:33
it's one where I'm just gonna let let it control this fight. I
26:37
prefer others instead. I have it as a three star over at ship in
26:40
Nation, but it's closer to a two star rather than a four star for
26:44
me, So not one I'm gonna force end the lineups at all, but
26:45
also not one that I'm gonna completely limit the exposure either. Yeah, I
26:51
think that makes a lot of sense, Like if either guy does finish,
26:53
both have good upside that throw a lot of volume. Probably would be a
26:56
knockdown in there as well, But it's like favor to go the distance again,
27:00
how I'm approaching it. If I'm playing this fight, I can eat
27:03
more chalk in the top tier. And if I'm fading, that's assuming I'm
27:07
fading in the main event, or I'm fading like a Lopez Ortega or some
27:11
chalkier options. But if so, if I'm really Chalky to mix in this
27:15
fight. If I'm not as Chalky and I'm playing a Budai robertson something lower
27:19
owned, I probably won't get to this fight much. So that's how I
27:22
see this fight. Sounds like you are pretty similar. What's going on,
27:26
Siggy, Terry in here. Hope everything's well, Joanne phil Rio, Cody,
27:30
Ben Michael. Now that I got it up, Geekaifer can say hi
27:33
to all my people. Hope you're doing well. And Siggy, perfect time
27:37
for this next fight on the card because you were on the couch with me
27:41
when I pulled the trigger. Andre Peeley taking on Cub. Swanson minus two
27:45
thirty is Philly plus one ninety five is Cub minus one fifty for this fight
27:51
to finish, Phelly plus one thirty inside the distance Cub plus three twenty five.
27:56
You know Andrea Peelly open as the underdog. Oh well I did not
28:00
know that. Yeah, Now, I wasn't that good to get that,
28:03
but I got at minus one fifty five three weeks a month ago. I
28:07
just don't understand. I didn't understand forty year old cub who can't take a
28:11
light kick, who can't take a body kick, Phely's nasty. Yeah,
28:15
I mean, I'm worried about his durability too, So I'm gonna play some
28:18
cub and especially as like a little hedge off of my big phey bets.
28:22
But how is this not Peely all day man like? And I like him
28:26
in DFS and our ownership will be up. I was a little surprised to
28:30
see the ownership. I do agree with you. I think it's gonna be
28:33
low owned. I didn't expect that low owned plus one thirty inside the distance
28:37
cub durability concerns to the body, to the leg. If Phelly's any bit
28:41
smart man, chip away at those legs early, take away the power start
28:45
teeing off on him. I got phey by knockout, probably in the later
28:48
stages. I hope he invests to the legs early though minus won fifty five
28:53
is what I got. I wouldn't lay minus two thirty. But yeah,
28:56
I mean, I he opened plus one twenty. I don't understand. I
29:00
don't whoever made that line should be fired. Yeah, yeah, I agree.
29:06
I mean I feel like the line is right now. I mean,
29:08
Philly's not somebody I completely trust, but Swanson's almost forty one years old,
29:12
and I just don't trust these old guys in lighter divisions. He's coming off
29:17
a good win, but I feel like Pheeley's the more dangerous striker. He's
29:21
also more likely to go out there and wrestle. So Swanson is in play
29:25
as a live dog who could put up ten x or so in a win.
29:27
I'm not going to x them out, but I'm also not going to
29:30
force him into any lineups. If the ship Demiser gives me zero percent,
29:33
I'll keep it. But I would rather be closer to like ten to fifteen
29:37
percent Swanson because I do like other underdogs a lot more Pheelly. I feel
29:42
like he always needs a first round knockout. I don't think he's going to
29:45
go out there and wrestle enough to score one hundred in a decision. So
29:48
if he's not getting a first round knockout, he just doesn't really put up
29:51
very many points. So maybe he'll go out there, respect his elder a
29:53
little bit too much and put up eighty points in the decision, which won't
29:57
cut it. I don't think of late f is gonna cut it either.
30:00
I feel like minutes a minute, it'll be fairly close on the feet,
30:04
but I do definitely give Phelly the edge in this one eighty six hundred just
30:07
a lot to pay when I would rather go up one hundred to Robertson or
30:11
two hundred or three hundred whatever it is, to Ricky Simone. So I
30:15
won't get too much Phey. But this is one where I'm just not gonna
30:18
x out either side. But I'm fine with getting ten to twenty percent Phely
30:22
and then maybe around the ten percent range on Swanson as well. But I
30:26
doubt this fight makes its way into my single entry. Yeah, that makes
30:30
sense, So I'll say the ownership quick. In a couple of the fights
30:34
around it, we have Robertson thirty five, Phey fourteen, Prayer forty one,
30:40
Lopez thirty three. I'll just leave it at that clear clear pivot from
30:45
all those guys. Now, Bueno Silva will be low owned two and then
30:48
all the other ones will be higher owned. But if you want Silva or
30:52
Silva and Philly are the clear pivots off Top and Boude. I probably feel
30:57
best with Pheelly, like plus one thirty and the distance, and maybe it's
31:00
like I already got the money line and stuff at a good number, but
31:03
if he chops those legs early, I just I hope he goes to that
31:07
game plan. I don't think he's knocking him out with like a head kick
31:10
or something, but man, that body and those legs are toast. So
31:15
I think it's so so live at fourteen percent owned, right in between a
31:18
lot of higher own fighters. Again, that's the stuff I'll be looking at
31:22
to get different in Chalky lineups. Yeah, no doubt, but I do.
31:26
Even though, like I said, I bet Pheey he's been knocked out
31:29
four times coming off a bad one to Dan Egay, and Cub still has
31:33
some pop and I think I don't think Phey. I hope he shoots for
31:36
takedowns. I think it mainly plays out on the feet though Cubs, I
31:40
mean he's been there, He's done that. Pheely can be durability concerns.
31:44
Cup still hits a little hard, So I do will play some Cup because
31:47
I do like the upside as inside the distance. Prop has been bet down
31:51
a little bit as well. Three point fifty now is plus three twenty five
31:53
on the Pheey side. But I do think we get a pretty fun fight
31:56
here and hope to see a knockout let's keep it rolling. Thirteen to talk
32:00
about again. Appreciate all of you hanging out with Hope. He has some
32:04
fun plans for the weekend, and those fun plans should be sitting in front
32:07
of that TV watching some MMA tomorrow. Next fight, Joe Pifer Mark Andre
32:12
Barrio minus two to eighty is Pifer plus two forty is Barrio. This fight's
32:16
minus one seventy to finish. Joe Pifer plus one hundred inside the distance mark
32:22
Andre Barrio plus three seventy five. I mean it's a good fight. I
32:25
know for sure. I want to mark Andre Barrio exposure because he throws a
32:30
lot of volume, he has cardio, and he's a dog. Like we
32:34
need to play. We play a salary based game. We need underdogs.
32:37
If you're telling me Barrio wins, I think he scores well. Pifer,
32:40
I want some two plus one hundreds good. He has a lot of power.
32:45
I'm gonna throw to you on this though, Big Marley. Is he
32:46
gonna try and wrestle because I think he can have success. I think he's
32:51
levels above on the ground. Like I think a submission is very much in
32:54
play, but it's more so I want to know if he might shoot for
32:58
takedowns for the upside, because if he doesn't and he gets a second round
33:01
knockout, could be enough. But if Simone gets eight or nine takedowns or
33:06
Seruja gets five takedowns or first round Sob or Talbot or whatever, it might
33:10
not be enough. He has more out if he does mix in wrestling.
33:14
So do you think he does that? How do you see this fight?
33:19
I do give him the wrestling edge and Burial can be taken down. I
33:22
just don't know that Pifer has the cardio to go out there with a wrestling
33:27
game plan and last for three rounds. I feel like if he is going
33:30
for takedowns, it's most likely early, but I think that tires him out
33:34
and I don't see him getting takedowns in the third round, maybe not even
33:37
the late second round. So I think he's more in play for his first
33:40
round knockout ability, which people love to target and I love to fade.
33:45
So I'm gonna be underweight on Pifer in this one. I will be overweight
33:49
to Burriol. Give me Burial to get a split decision winning this one.
33:52
I think he's got the better cardio. He's the higher volume striker. And
33:55
if Pifer does look to wrestle, I think it's a mistake. He should
33:58
go out there throw some bombs or but I just like to fade those types
34:01
of fighters, especially at nine K at high ownership. I'll probably be half
34:06
the field or so on Pifer. Maybe I'll double the field, maybe triple
34:08
the field. I don't even know yet on Burial, but I like Burial
34:12
a good amount. At seventy two hundred dollars, I don't think he's ever
34:15
scored less than like eighty points in a win. He scored one hundred and
34:17
thirty two. He scored one hundred and twenty. He's got some big boy
34:22
scorers up there. And if he does win this fight, I expect him
34:24
to score eighty plus and have a good chance at the optimal. So give
34:28
me Burial to get an upset. I'll give you a little shout out because
34:31
a lot of those same words you said last week on a particular fight Sergey
34:35
Pavlovich against Volkov, and man, you cannot have been any more spot on
34:39
with that. So you don't like playing guys with power that they rely on
34:44
a lot of same things you said with Pifer are gonna be underweight underweight pav
34:46
he went other sidey at least this time I'll have more burial, so I
34:51
like it. I'm a great call last week, very similar thoughts. He
34:53
just said to the Piper fight as he did last week, keep it rolling
34:58
too, even though if I'm want to say fun fight, boring fight,
35:01
I don't even know. But there's some big names people are excited, name
35:06
wise Ian, Gary, Michael Paige. Minus one forty five Gary plus one
35:10
twenty five is Page Sites plus one fifty. To finish, we have Gary
35:15
plus three hundred and Page plus three thirty inside the distance, So I don't
35:21
like I'm fading Page. The dude throws no volume like. I think Gary's
35:25
not gonna get knocked like Page. If he knocks him out, great,
35:29
I will probably have zero even in one fifty. I really think I'm gonna
35:32
have zero page. I almost pulled the trigger on betting Gary, but I
35:37
didn't know if he's gonna actually grapple like If he doesn't wrestle and grapple,
35:42
this fight, I think is gonna be so boring like the Page in Holland
35:45
fight. Neither is gonna be optimal. It's right in the mid tier at
35:47
eighty two hundred and eight K. But it's my least favorite. I like
35:51
the Jordaine Silva fight more, or Tega Lopez fight more main event more Like
35:55
I think Page is a boring fighter, or a style can lead to boring
36:00
fights. Gary's been a point fighter. He hasn't shown his wrestling and grappling
36:04
thus far in the UFC, But Kevin Holland took down Page when he didn't
36:07
like what was going on on the feet, So I think I almost pulled
36:10
the trigger on Gary at minus one forty. I'm not in a legal state
36:14
anymore, so that's not happening. Ye F's wise though, No Page,
36:20
I have Gary underweight because I think there's a chance he goes and wrestles in
36:23
grapples, and if that's the case, yeah, I mean I think he
36:27
can be levels above Page there. But if he doesn't, I don't think
36:30
this fight's optimal. No Page for me capping Gary's ownership. But unless you
36:36
tell me you think he does come out here and put on the wrestling shoes,
36:42
I think it's in play, and I did. I did get Gary
36:45
at like minus one thirty something already, so sitting on at it, I
36:50
like Gary in this one, and I'm not gonna x out Page because I
36:53
mean, Gary was almost sparked by Keenan Song in the first round. Page
36:58
does have power, He's awkward. It wouldn't shock me to see a first
37:00
round knockout from Page. But that's at plus six fifty. Plus six fifty
37:06
is about thirteen percent implied odds. That's where I'm in a max page as
37:09
so I'm fine with zero to thirteen percent. And then on the Gary side,
37:15
I think he's in play for a knockout as well. I just think
37:17
he's much faster, much more technical, going to be higher volume as well.
37:22
And I also think he could and maybe should mix in wrestling in this
37:25
one. Training at Shoot the Box, probably been working a lot on the
37:30
ground lately, so I think that his ownership is going to be low enough
37:35
where I'm okay getting some exposure or not exposure, some leverage on Gary.
37:38
I do want to maybe even force him into some lineups because I feel good
37:43
about him in this matchup, and I think he could put eighty to one
37:45
hundred points at sub twenty percent ownership, so I will get some Gary exposure.
37:51
I think the line should be a little bit higher than it is right
37:52
now too, to be honest with you, so give me Gary to either
37:55
get a TKO or win possibly all three rounds. Hey, now you're making
38:00
me wish I did unload the trigger. Maybe I'll have to send some money
38:04
over to CEA or something. I wish i'd put more. To be honest
38:07
with you, I didn't go as heavy as I should have. Yeah.
38:08
I looked at it all week and I just was like, man, if
38:12
he doesn't wrestle, I'm not sure he should be minus one forty five.
38:15
But yeah, Gary feels like the side volume wise, I think he can
38:19
win anywhere. But let's just say no takedowns, Big Marley. He wins
38:22
a decision, what's he scoring. He wins a decision, he's probably putting
38:25
seventy to eighty, not cutting it. Yeah, yeah, no takedowns like
38:30
this. I would say closer to seventy. Yeah, I like that,
38:32
or I see it the same way. Don't like that fight much, but
38:36
the Gary side definitely both of our preferred sides. Next fight on the card,
38:39
and this is the very very interesting one. Oh. Actually the line
38:43
flipped a little bit on bet online depending on where you look. It's a
38:46
coin flip of most spots, slight favorite on both sides depending where you look.
38:51
But myro Bueno Silva eighty eight hundred taking on Macy chase on seventy four
38:55
hundred minus one sixteen right now, Bueno Silva that online minus one oh four
39:00
for Macy's fights plus one twenty to finish, Bueno Silva plus one eighty five
39:07
Macy plus four seventy five. So right away you see an eighty eight hundred
39:10
fighter at pretty much even money and a seventy four hundred fighter at even money.
39:15
Macy got all the way to minus one twenty a couple of days ago.
39:19
Money came back a little bit on Bueno Silva. I will say the
39:22
inside the distance prop for Macy open plus six point fifty. Let me double
39:27
check plus six hundred and is now plus four seventy five, which you like
39:30
to see. Bueno Silva went plus one seventy five. Now it's plus one
39:34
eighty five. I mean, so clearly Buena Silva is a pivot. Talked
39:37
about Phee talked about Budai good finishing odds, low ownership because of the money
39:43
line. Naturally, I will definitely be playing Bueno Silva in chalk your lineups,
39:47
because she has upside submission. Upside could be any round, and she's
39:52
very very low owned. I don't care about the money line. I care
39:55
about upside. In terms of tournaments in DFS, Macy I'm naturally gonna play
40:00
because she's a coin flip at seventy four hundred, and I think these spots
40:06
don't go. They don't get as much steam as they should, especially on
40:08
the card like this. Macy can have clinch control in this one a volume
40:13
advantage. Does she get offensive takedowns? I think that probably wouldn't be too
40:17
smart, unless she's just really really trusts herself on top. But I think
40:21
Macy has plenty of ways to score for cheap. The odds obviously make some
40:25
sense. She's gonna get ownership, but I don't think the steam gets crazy
40:29
or I am gonna play some Macy and I'm fine getting overweight as well.
40:32
Bueno Silvan, chalk your lineups. I'm gonna be playing this fight. What
40:36
about you. I actually prefer Buenos Silva at their current or what I have,
40:42
their current ownership at just seventy four hundred dollars for an even money fighter
40:45
where people are probably hunting for underdogs. I just think Chasen's gonna get a
40:49
ton of ownership on this card, So I am not gonna get anywhere near
40:52
her and GPPs or not anywhere near that ownership. I will say, own
40:58
your ownership. I agree, I would. I would have a lot less
41:00
than that too. Yeah, I mean locker into cash games for sure,
41:05
first person in your cash lineup, But I'm probably closer to half of the
41:10
field, if not less than half of the field on Chason because I don't
41:14
see her having a whole lot of upside in this one. I don't think
41:16
she wants to look for takedowns against somebody like Bueno Silva, who could wrap
41:21
up a submission from the bottom. And if Chason wins this fight, I
41:23
feel like it's mostly staying at range, landing shots on the feet, maybe
41:28
putting up ten x ten X. I just don't think is gonna cut it
41:31
on this card. I definitely don't want to x her out because she is
41:34
only seventy four hundred dollars. But yeah, she's the type where if you
41:37
want chasaon, you got to get it like a Budet in your lineup.
41:39
Er A FEELI or something like that that makes sense to me. But Bueno
41:44
Silva should come in as one of the lowest stone fighters on the card,
41:46
should be the lowest one favorite on the card, and I think she's live
41:50
for a submission in any round, but more likely in the first or second
41:53
round, which could put her on the optimal lineup. So she's my preferred
41:58
leverage play. I'm not gonna be loading up wonder at all, but she's
42:00
one way for me to get different on this card. I like her to
42:05
win. I feel like I favor her slightly in this one. I don't
42:07
feel good about her winning, but if I'm making a line, she's my
42:10
slight favorite. So give me Buayno Silva to get a submission in the first
42:15
eight minutes of this fight. Yeah, I mean, I would like that
42:19
because I'm gonna be more overweight Silva than I will chase on probably since it's
42:23
way easier to do. Yeah, I mean, I would definitely take a
42:29
chalky dog losing a very low owned favorite. That's the stuff to get a
42:31
unique lineup less than five dupes, which is always the goal for me.
42:36
But it's a thirteen fight card. That's why I'm still saying I'm fine playing
42:38
thirty percent macy because you can play a chalkier, you can play it pretty
42:44
much any of the chalkier fighters. There's enough fights on this card to mix
42:46
and lower on people. Leave salary on the table, make pivots one v
42:51
one's two v twos where you can still eat multiple pieces of chalk. It's
42:54
gotta be low low owneder do something different in a spot or two. So
43:00
yeah, that's the benefit of a thirteen fight card. Eleven fight cards.
43:02
You have to be way more crazy, and that's why we always preach.
43:05
At least I always preach. And more fights way better for dfs because more
43:08
combinations. What's going on, bring the noise. We're ready for tomorrow.
43:14
Absolutely, Nicholas appreciate you hanging out Eddie. So year you made weight.
43:17
Now it's just Anthony Smith. Keep an eye on that, please, Anthony
43:22
Smith. Linehard at least don't go over like three pounds. We need that
43:27
fight on twelve fights, but not be fun. Thirteen fights we need so
43:30
yep, only one person left to weigh in. Let's keep it rolling.
43:35
Three fights left right on OUE, right on Q. I should say Roman
43:37
delite, say minus one thirty five taking on Anthony Smith plus one fifteen.
43:43
This fight's minus one forty to finish. The leeds A plus one sixty inside
43:46
the distance Anthony Smith plus two seventy five. Throw it right to you in
43:51
this one close fight expected to finish. Both guys have solid finishing props right
43:55
there in the mid tier. How do you see it going down? I'm
44:02
not really sure. I feel like Delidze is gonna be our more powerful striker,
44:08
more durable as well. I feel like he's the better wrestler, harder
44:12
to take down, so any finishing upside should be all on the Deledese side.
44:16
He has never been finished himself and Smith has been finished like fifteen times
44:22
or something like that. Uh So upside definitely goes to Dalidze. If this
44:28
fight ends early, he's getting his hand raised in my opinion, but minutes
44:31
a minute, especially if this fight stays on the feet, I feel like
44:34
Smith could out volume him, maybe laying some leg kicks slow him down along
44:38
the way. And if this fight goes to a decision, maybe I favor
44:43
Smith in that case. But at seventy eight hundred dollars, I don't even
44:46
know that Smith is gonna get ten X in a decision when and unless he's
44:50
gonna be the first person to finish Dalitz, I have a hard time seeing
44:53
him just be a lock for the optimal lineup. So my preferred play is
44:57
just to go with the upside, the finishing upside that is on Deleds.
45:00
I don't think that he has a chance at the optimal lineup if he wins
45:05
a decision, because I don't think he'll go out there and wrestle as much
45:07
as we would need in that case. So it's really all the finishing upside
45:13
that I'm targeting. But at eighty four hundred dollars, if he gets a
45:15
hundred points, he's probably on the optimal lineup, So he's my preferred play,
45:20
but his ownership might be a little too high for me to want any
45:22
leverage there, and Smith should be low owned, so not a terrible leverage
45:29
play there. I don't know what I'm gonna do with this one. Probably
45:30
another mm ME one where I let the ship de miser take over. But
45:34
if I'm making one lineup and I had to throw this fight in there,
45:37
I'm probably starting with d'lidze, and then if I need to, I would
45:39
go down and save the six hundred dollars if that really gets to be up
45:42
somewhere else, If that six hundred dollars savings is what I would need,
45:45
yeah, I'll take Delidze, probably buy Atko at some point. Yeah,
45:51
another one of those pivot fights like that one's eighty four hundred and seventy or
45:54
eighty four to seventy eight Lopez Ortega. We talk about eighty four to seventy
45:59
eight. It's Yuri and Peyer that we're gonna get to eighty five seventy seven.
46:05
So we know the Lopezer Tega fight will be higher on. We know
46:07
Prayer year you will be higher owned. So this is like the other pivot
46:10
where people will go to. But if you had to say this fight or
46:14
the Gene Silva Jordaine fight, or you can say the Gary, you can
46:16
throw Gary in that equation too, Like, how would you rank those fights
46:20
as pivots? Who stuff? I know. That's why mme ship Demiser,
46:25
playing multiple teams, That's why I preach all that stuff because single entry is
46:30
so hard in MMA. If you if you're good in single entry and you're
46:32
profitable, good for you. It's a tough game out there. Well,
46:37
yeah, I feel like just overall, the fights in general are all close.
46:40
I'd say the highest ceiling of all of them would be Delites. The
46:45
lowest score from them all would be Page. Yeah, they're all MM fights
46:52
for me. I'm just gonna let the ship Demiser take over for me.
46:54
And if it gives me, you know, twenty to thirty or fifteen to
46:58
thirty percent of really in do you have them other than Page, I'm fine
47:00
with that. Yeah, I like it. I'll be treating it kind of
47:04
similar as well. Not a fight like if I had fifty percent to lease
47:07
there fifty percent Anthony Smith. No, I'm definitely bumping that down. But
47:10
if I had ten percent to thirty five and I loved everything else, sure,
47:15
I'm kind of indifferent about this too. The leads a low volume.
47:19
Anthony Smith can be pretty low volume that stays on the feet. It probably
47:22
doesn't get there. But both guys do have some I guess wrestling grappling upside,
47:27
but the leads a more power the low volume though. Yeah, another
47:31
fight I'm indifferent about. Like Ortega Lopez so much better, Yuri brought like
47:37
Pereira, These next two fights so much better. But it's no secret and
47:39
the main event. It's gonna be a ninety seven percent home combined or something.
47:44
I think Lopez Ortega is a fight. A lot of people jam in
47:47
the mid tier as well, so for people like myself that want as little
47:51
dukes as possible to win, I'm hoping this fight or Jordain fight or not
47:55
Paige because I won't have them, but I'm hoping some of these lower own
47:59
pivot fights do outscore them. That's the more likelihood you see a solo shipper
48:02
and stuff like that, which is always the goal. Two hundred K is
48:06
a lot more fun and enjoyable than twelve k with two hundred of your best
48:10
friends. But hey, no one's ever gonna say no to twelve k.
48:15
Two fights left. Diego Lopez taken on Brian or Tega. Fight was supposed
48:20
to be at one forty five is now at one fifty five, and both
48:22
guys did successfully make weight at one fifty five Ortega. It was on Ortega
48:28
side they said he was preparing for like a fight in September at the Sphere,
48:31
so he was like kind of bulking. He wasn't gonna be able to
48:34
make one forty five. Not from my understanding, did Lopez just find this
48:37
out today or did they just announce it today. Yeah, I'm not sure.
48:42
I just learned about it through our discord. Yeah, and I've been
48:45
working over on the Ship of Nations sheets since then, so I haven't really
48:49
had a chance to look into it. But that's kind of what it seemed
48:51
like to me. Yeah, And like, so I'll say the odds first
48:54
and get my quick thoughts on that minus one forty five is Lopez plus one
49:00
twenty five or Tega minus won sixty five for this fight to finish, Lopez
49:04
plus one twenty five or Tega plus three hundred. So that was my thought
49:09
was, like, if Ortega kept this to himself, it'd be a little
49:14
advantage to him because Lopez already in the middle of cutting all this weight.
49:17
But he did weigh in at one fifty five, so, like, I
49:22
want to look into it a little more. Again, I was got back
49:23
from the gym, was making breakfast. It hit like twenty minutes before we
49:27
came on the show, So I didn't get that answer either. If someone
49:30
in YouTube chat knows, But if Ortega like hid that information until late,
49:35
he obviously cut a lot less weight because he knew he won't be able to
49:37
make one forty five. But Lopez is on the flip side, a bigger
49:43
fighter, taller fighter. He's really big for the division, so I think
49:46
he's gonna feel a little better than he usually does walk into the octagon at
49:50
one fifty five instead of one forty five. Now, it won't matter if
49:53
he starts him in a minute and a half like he has his last three
49:55
opponents. He stills all the upside in the world. But yeah, maybe
50:00
this fight goes a little deep, like maybe I think Ortega might have an
50:04
advantage there about the weight cutting stuff. I don't know, kind of just
50:07
speculating. I'm guessing I'll follow a line movement right now. The line has
50:10
not really done anything since this fight was moved to one fifty five, But
50:15
yeah, I was just trying to read into it a little bit. Any
50:19
thoughts on the weight going to one to fifty five now? Regardless, I
50:22
think it's a good fight to target, great fight in real life. I
50:24
think a lot of people like this fight as well. Grappling upside knockout upside
50:30
two known guys. Diego Lopez is on a roll though. Man, it's
50:32
tough to pick against him, right now are you gonna do so? Yeah?
50:37
Wait, wise, I would imagine it helps out Ortega a little bit.
50:40
I would guess that Lopez was probably at like one fifty one when you
50:44
heard about it. No problem to get that four extra pounds in. Probably
50:46
got that in in thirty minutes. Yeah, I'd imagine they're both fine,
50:52
not gonna help out or take it too much. I feel like with weight
50:55
misses, I usually think that if it's an injury, it's gonna hurt them.
50:59
But if they knew that they were gonna miss in their wrestlers, maybe
51:01
it helps them. Or Taga not necessarily a wrestler, he's an amazing grappler.
51:07
They're both amazing grapplers. I really hope this fight takes place on the
51:09
feet. I would love to see a grappling match between these two. But
51:13
yeah, upside goes to Lopez. If this fight ends in the first round,
51:16
I'd imagine it's Lopez, whether it be a knockout or submission. I'd
51:21
kind of be surprised to see him submit Ortega, but it'd be cool to
51:23
see. And then if this fight ends in the third round, it's gonna
51:27
be Ortega in my opinion, or take is nasty in the third round.
51:30
He's got like four or five third round finishes in the UFC alone, But
51:35
yeah, I feel like it's a scratch on the ground. But wrestling wise,
51:38
I do give Ortega the upside. I mean, Diego Lopez was taken
51:42
down four times by v Loev, three times by Brito. Maybe maybe it
51:45
was the other way around, but he was controlled for more than half of
51:49
both of those fights. I think that's somewhat in play for Ortega here.
51:53
And also, if Lopez comes out super aggressive in the first round like he
51:57
has lately, maybe he starts to slow down with this fight taken on short
52:00
notice, So I don't know. I feel like I originally was liking Lopez
52:07
just because he looks like an absolute killer, most improved fighter in the last
52:12
four years in my opinion, But this is a big step up, and
52:15
I kind of see it first half going to Lopez, second half going to
52:20
Ortega. Split decision type of fight. Split decision either way might not get
52:23
us there on this fight that I think is going to be pretty owned.
52:25
So I think I'm gonna be underweight to the fight as a whole. I
52:30
think Lopez has a whole lot of hype behind him, he'll get more ownership,
52:34
So I plan on being underweight to him, and then maybe I'll get
52:37
around field weight on Ortega because I am picking him to win. He had
52:40
the plus next to his name. That's ultimately what I picked him for.
52:44
He's an underdog I'm picking to win. I always like to go a little
52:46
bit overweight to those types of people. So Ortega, I guess, is
52:50
my preferred play in this one. But I would guess that he needs a
52:52
finish. Maybe a third round finish could be enough, but I don't see
52:58
either one of them having any chance at hundred points in the decision win here.
53:00
So I think we're gonna need a finish, and the field might be
53:04
on it enough to where if I'm making five lineups, I might just exa
53:07
fight out. How much grappling wrestling you think they'll be? Like Ken,
53:10
If Diego slows a little bit, you don't think you can get like reversals,
53:14
takedowns, control time and it still gets there in the decision. Yeah,
53:17
I feel like more of the wrestling is on the Ortega side in this
53:22
one. Yeah, I just don't. I don't know how this one's going
53:25
to take place, Like trying to like close my eyes and picture how this
53:29
fight's gonna happen. I have no idea. Like that's also how good two
53:30
people are, like they can do it all. Yeah, like exactly like
53:35
I would imagine. It mostly stays on the feet with them just kind of
53:37
fearing the other one's jiu jitsu. But that's what I want to see.
53:40
Is I want to see a grapple limit, Yeah, that'd be I hope
53:43
most of this fight takes place on the ground, and if that's the case,
53:45
then either one of them could make the optimal lineup. So I want
53:49
exposure to both sides for sure, But I just think the field's on it
53:51
enough to where I won't get any leverage if I do it would be or
53:54
take a side. Yeah, And this is one where I'm like, if
53:58
I had fifty percent Lopez and fifteen take and I love my script, sure
54:00
go Diego or unless I have a really good Ortega team and then go Ortega.
54:05
Late you'll know where you're sitting who you're gonna be cheering for in DFS
54:08
if you're even live lucky enough to be alive at the end of it.
54:12
But fifty Lopez fifteen or take I love it. Sure, I'm in fifty
54:15
Ortega fifteen Lopez. I'm in because I don't have a strong lean either side,
54:20
and I don't even if I have fifteen of both, I'm probably good.
54:23
I probably would be fine with it because I'm definitely underweight to and it's
54:28
gonna be a fight that gets pretty owned, and I know I'm gonna be
54:30
playing the main event. I'll be a chalk donkey and eat that fight,
54:32
so I only can eat so much shocking spots. So yeah, maybe I'm
54:36
with you and I end up underweight on this fight, but this is one
54:38
of them where like I'm looking at a lot of other fights and making sure
54:43
my ownership's more locked in there than this fight, because I really like it,
54:46
all right, I like it. You can make a case it's not
54:49
optimal, like Big Marley did, but also you can like, if this
54:52
fight isn't optimal, it buries a lot of people. I'll use this fight
54:55
in like non it doesn't like we have a thirty three to twenty three.
55:00
I'll say right now, I think Ortega probably takes a little more steam,
55:04
maybe even Lopez takes like thirty five thirty six because of the run he's been
55:07
on sixty five percent combined ownership in this fight. I don't know. Yeah,
55:13
Like I said, I'll let the shift to miser and all that.
55:15
I'll let my other script and my other people dictate what I do in this
55:19
one, minus won sixty five finish though was bet down a little bit.
55:22
It was minus one eighty, So some money coming in on the over main
55:29
event, Tom baby, what a main event. We have Alex Peira YEARI
55:32
Praashka two. We have Alex Peyra minus one forty seven year he plus one
55:38
twenty seven minus five hundred for this fight to finish, Alex Peyra minus one
55:44
twenty year he plus won eighty. In the first fight we had Alex pere
55:49
I get a second round knockout, was taken down in the first round,
55:52
controlled a little bit, still scored ninety eight points in that one while landing
55:57
eleven significant strikes in round one. I don't think Yari's gonna come out and
56:00
wrestle. I think this fight just plays out on the feet. It's tough
56:05
man like I was debating for a split second, I was like, Yeah,
56:09
I like Pereyra by the light kicks, the check left hook, if
56:13
it's on the feet. I think I learned my lesson from the Jamal Hill
56:15
fight. You just don't bet against the sky in any striking match. But
56:19
dude, YEARI is just a freaking psycho and the light kicks. I lost
56:22
so much money on Alexander Rackitch lied because of the light kicks. I just
56:27
kept hammering it. The dudees likes toast toast toast, and it didn't matter,
56:31
like it did not matter. Pereyer, obviously better kicker than rackets,
56:36
rackets, went away from it like a donkey, all that stuff. But
56:39
I don't know man like Yeerie at plus money in what should be a war.
56:44
He landed shots against Perera too, like he had him backed up.
56:46
He pressured him in that first fight. He had moments against Pereira, but
56:52
got into my head. I'm still picking Peyer because the light kicks. I
56:54
don't think year you will have any answer for It's gonna be all mental and
56:59
heart and warp. But I think Pereira is not gonna get away from it.
57:01
Like Rakach, he slows down the power, the movement, et cetera,
57:06
and eventually gets him at some point. But again, I have sixty
57:09
percent YEARI and thirty percent, Pereira fine, vice versa fine. I will
57:15
make a rule on twenty entry in below, though, to have one of
57:16
these fighters in every lineup. Sure it's chalky, but there's thirteen fights.
57:21
I can get different in enough spots. I'm fine playing Budai, I'm fine
57:24
playing Silva, feely, et cetera. I am not fine fad in this
57:28
fight with only twenty teams or less, so fireworks, insane fight, do
57:31
not miss it. It's gonna be a good one. But yeah, no
57:35
strongly, and I guess yeah, I'm the same. This is just a
57:38
fight. It's my favorite fight on the card to target. I would lock
57:42
it in with twenty or less as well, not a complete must have with
57:45
one hundred and fifty lineups. I would not make a rule with one hundred
57:49
and fifty on this one, but I want to load up and I would
57:51
be fine with thirty to sixty percent on either side as well. I'll say
57:55
that I would like to start with Pereira as my preferred play, just because
58:00
Jerry's just too defensively irresponsible overall, and with this fight being short notice,
58:07
I don't know how much he's gonna look to wrestle I always get worried about
58:09
these people gasing out if they look to wrestle, especially if they're not primary
58:13
wrestlers and they're not used to that stuff. But he just might be crazy
58:15
enough where he can fight through the fatigue, like he's fighting through those Lake
58:20
kicks. So I don't know I would want to start with Perera, Like
58:23
in a single entry, I'm putting him in, and then I'm trying to
58:25
fill out the rest of my lineup, and if I need to save some
58:28
money, then I'm dropping down to Jerry. So yeah, this is one
58:30
where I want to force it into my single entry. Don't really care which
58:34
one it is, but my pick to win is gonna be Pereira. I
58:37
think he lands that left hook at some point puts Jerry away. But Pereira
58:40
is the side where if he wins, it's not gonna be a lock for
58:44
the optimal lineup, especially if it's not a first or a second round knockout,
58:47
Whereas if Jerry wins, he's got to be a lock for the outamal
58:52
lineup. Like Jerry's probably scoring a hundred points in any win. Pereira could
58:55
score in the eighties here and just get out scored by other big favorites,
59:00
so he's the side that makes it not I must have. But he's also
59:02
got the best left hook I've ever seen in my life, and I feel
59:06
like it lands at some point. If it lands in the first round,
59:07
he's on the optimal lineup. So give me Pereira to win by TKO,
59:13
but I'm not confident about it. I kind of thought I was gonna bet
59:15
it, and then I went and rewatched that first fight. Jerry won the
59:19
first round, he landed a takedown or two, controlled more than half the
59:22
fight. He definitely took the first round, and then he was landing some
59:24
big shots in the second round too. He was winning that fight until until
59:29
the elbows that Peier hit him with. It wasn't even the left hook that
59:30
took him out, it was just some elbows while he was trying to get
59:34
a takedown. So Jerry was winning until he lost. It would not shock
59:37
me to see him go out there and win four rounds here and still score
59:40
great on the cards. So great fight to target whoever you have a leen
59:45
on go heavy on them. But yeah, it's another one where I'm kind
59:47
of fine letting the ship de Miser take over. Just load it up for
59:51
me. Any thoughts on the spirits and all that talk. That's pretty much
59:54
a storyline of this weekend. Have you heard about any of it? Nah?
1:00:00
Pretty much. Year he's just telling Alex Parra not to use his spirits
1:00:04
that he knows he does it, these practices, the higher ups, all
1:00:07
this stuff. So I ain't even gonna get into it. I didn't know
1:00:08
if Yeah, no thoughts, it's yeah, it's really really interesting stuff.
1:00:14
But it's going to be a great, great fight. That's an hour talking
1:00:17
MMA pay per view season UFC three oh three supposed to be McGregor, no
1:00:23
McGregor anymore, Hopefully we do see him at some point. Alex Peyra in
1:00:27
to save the day against Yeary will be a great fight. Six pm Eastern
1:00:31
T Mobile Arena. If you're going to be in there, I am very
1:00:34
very jealous. Again, FGWC fifteen gets you fifteen percent off. All the
1:00:39
MMA content will be up shortly after the show monthly six month annual package.
1:00:45
We do have the ship de Miser two for MMA. Definitely make sure to
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check that out MLBPGA as well, and of course shout out our sponsor Drafters
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Drafters dot com head over use that promo code ship it. They will match
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one hundred percent from twenty bucks all the way to one hundred dollars two dollars
1:01:00
drafts fifteen dollars draft five hundred k up top This year, Big Marley and
1:01:05
I will be talking some best ball. In two weeks. Rankings will be
1:01:07
up. Very excited for best Ball season. Final words for the people,
1:01:10
Big Marley, uh Well, final words with drafters that two dollars one already
1:01:15
filled up. That just filled like a night or two ago. Outside.
1:01:19
Yeah, and I only got up to one thirty on it. I'm already
1:01:22
digging into the fifteens though. I probably I'm probably close to two hundred drafts
1:01:27
deep at this point. So I'm gonna be hitting these rankings up real soon.
1:01:29
I'm gonna be working on them today. If I can finish them today,
1:01:31
I'll get them posted over at ship in Nation. I'm gonna do Drafters
1:01:35
first, so if anything is posted ranking wise, it will be Drafters.
1:01:38
We'll also throw out some underdog rankings as well. Yeah, man, looking
1:01:42
forward to this card. I think it's gonna be a really important mid range
1:01:45
to target if you can get the mid range right You're gonna be looking good
1:01:49
on this card, so love it. Hopefully it's a good one. Good
1:01:52
luck to you title, Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
1:01:55
Let's ship it. Indeed, great stuff behind the scenes as well, Big
1:01:59
Marley doing that producing duties for myself. Have a great week and everybody and
1:02:02
I will not be back until after the fourth of July, so hey,
1:02:06
enjoy the fourth one of the best times of the year. Enjoy it with
1:02:08
family, friends, hopefully nice weather. Let's make some money this week to
1:02:13
make it even better. For Big Marley. I'm titled Talent. Have a
1:02:15
good one. Be safe,