Latest / Trumponomics / Why Labor Unions Don't Have the Clout They Used To
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: So Dan, before we get started today, we just wanted
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- 0:41Speaker 1: Learn more at bloomberg dot com. Backslash lanes. Just about
- 0:46Speaker 1: every indicator of the US labor market shows that jobs
- 0:49Speaker 1: are plentiful and we're pushing the limits of how many
- 0:52Speaker 1: people can be employed. But many Americans still aren't seeing
- 0:57Speaker 1: the kind of lift to their wallets that were used
- 0:59Speaker 1: to with these kinds of numbers in the labor market.
- 1:02Speaker 1: One possible explanation is that Americans are not organized in
- 1:07Speaker 1: labor unions like they used to be. While unions have
- 1:10Speaker 1: had some notable successes, like this year's deal by Hollywood
- 1:13Speaker 1: writers that averted a strike, or the victory by forty
- 1:17Speaker 1: thou unionized Verizon workers last year. Most American workers lack
- 1:22Speaker 1: the bargaining power that they had throughout much of the
- 1:25Speaker 1: twenty century. Today on Benchmark, we're speaking with an expert
- 1:29Speaker 1: on this subject, Jared Bernstein, the former chief economist to
- 1:33Speaker 1: Vice President Joe Biden. I'm Scott Landman and economics editor
- 1:47Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News in Washington. Joining me as a guest
- 1:50Speaker 1: co host today is Patricia Leiah, a reporter covering the U.
- 1:54Speaker 1: S economy, also here in d C. Patty, thanks for
- 1:57Speaker 1: being here, h I'm really happy to be here. Thank
- 1:59Speaker 1: you so. Patty, You've just covered the latest US employment
- 2:02Speaker 1: report that came out last Friday. What stood out to
- 2:06Speaker 1: you in that report? Yeah, so the headline number for
- 2:08Speaker 1: April was pretty good, especially after a disappointing March that
- 2:12Speaker 1: was partly caused by that snowstorm we saw that affected
- 2:15Speaker 1: most of the northeast Stella. But even as the main
- 2:18Speaker 1: headline number came above, estimates, on the jobless rate fell,
- 2:23Speaker 1: which growth was still a bit disappointing. It's just not
- 2:26Speaker 1: at the level where it used to be in previous recoveries, right,
- 2:29Speaker 1: and that's been a puzzle for a while. Now the
- 2:31Speaker 1: labor market is getting tighter and tighter, but we're just
- 2:34Speaker 1: not seeing the kind of three percent four percent pay
- 2:37Speaker 1: gains that had happened in previous expansions when we had
- 2:40Speaker 1: a tight labor market that kind of looked like this.
- 2:43Speaker 1: So for more on this now, let's bring in Jared Bernstein,
- 2:46Speaker 1: since he has been a senior fellow at the Center
- 2:49Speaker 1: on Budget and Policy Priorities, and before working in the
- 2:52Speaker 1: Obama administration, he was at the Economic Policy Institute and
- 2:56Speaker 1: was also Deputy Chief Economist at the Labor to Artment
- 3:00Speaker 1: during the Clinton years. He's also a pretty good basketball player,
- 3:03Speaker 1: as I found out some years ago. Jared joins us
- 3:06Speaker 1: by phone from his office in Washington. Now, Jared, thanks
- 3:09Speaker 1: for spending time with us on Benchmark. My pleasure, though
- 3:12Speaker 1: I have to say my teammates last night would not
- 3:14Speaker 1: describe me as a pretty good basketball player. But at
- 3:18Speaker 1: any rate, I'm I'm better at the labor market stuff.
- 3:21Speaker 1: I guess, well we'll focus on that today. Good. So,
- 3:26Speaker 1: there there are lots of things, Jared that are different
- 3:28Speaker 1: about having a job in America today compared with forty
- 3:32Speaker 1: or fifty years ago. Was it really better back then?
- 3:35Speaker 1: Or are we looking through rose colored glasses at the past. Well,
- 3:40Speaker 1: in terms of the connection between wages and the job market,
- 3:45Speaker 1: things were better for various groups of workers, not everybody.
- 3:50Speaker 1: In fact, if you look at the gender wage differential,
- 3:54Speaker 1: women were earning a lot less than men for comparable,
- 3:57Speaker 1: comparable work back then than they are now. There was
- 4:00Speaker 1: still discrimination in the job market in other ways as well.
- 4:04Speaker 1: But if you're simply talking about basically two things, the
- 4:08Speaker 1: tightness in the labor market and the way that tightness
- 4:12Speaker 1: mapped onto people's paychecks, Yeah, that was that was better
- 4:16Speaker 1: back then. So let me give you a pretty mind
- 4:18Speaker 1: blowing statistic on this. Uh it used to be the case,
- 4:22Speaker 1: I was Patty was saying, at least by some metrics,
- 4:25Speaker 1: the current job market might be described as being at
- 4:27Speaker 1: full employment. I'm not sure I quite see it, but
- 4:30Speaker 1: that's a certainly a legitimate thing to declare. Well, since
- 4:34Speaker 1: nineteen eighty, we've been at full employment less than thirty
- 4:37Speaker 1: percent of the time. Before eight, say, the late forties
- 4:42Speaker 1: to nineteen eighty, we were at full employment almost seventy
- 4:44Speaker 1: percent of the time, so we were much more likely
- 4:47Speaker 1: to have a tight labor market, and a tight labor
- 4:49Speaker 1: market delivers some bargaining cloud to uh middle and lower
- 4:53Speaker 1: rage workers. Of course, as you kind of mentioned in
- 4:56Speaker 1: your intro, we were more unionized back then as well,
- 5:00Speaker 1: so economic growth mapped onto the paychecks of middle wage
- 5:04Speaker 1: workers more uh robustly then than it does now. Let
- 5:10Speaker 1: me share some facts with our listeners from the Bureau
- 5:12Speaker 1: of Labor Statistics. The union membership rate was at ten
- 5:17Speaker 1: point seven percent in it was over three and even
- 5:23Speaker 1: the state with the highest union membership, New York, is
- 5:25Speaker 1: at uh just under the lowest of South Carolina at
- 5:30Speaker 1: one point six When when you think about the economy
- 5:34Speaker 1: being at full employment, how how has that particular change
- 5:37Speaker 1: affected the American worker? Are people not organized in unions
- 5:41Speaker 1: to be able to take advantage of a full employment
- 5:44Speaker 1: situation like they used to be? Well, I guess the
- 5:46Speaker 1: way I look at it is a little bit differently,
- 5:48Speaker 1: and the the in American style job markets, you know,
- 5:53Speaker 1: we have a kind of a more rigorous version of
- 5:56Speaker 1: capitalism than they do in in other more social democracies. Uh,
- 6:01Speaker 1: your paycheck is not just a function of how skilled,
- 6:06Speaker 1: you are, your value added. That's kind of what they
- 6:08Speaker 1: teach you an economics class. But that's part of it,
- 6:12Speaker 1: no question. But it's also a matter of your bargaining power,
- 6:14Speaker 1: your bargaining clout. And historically there have been two factors
- 6:18Speaker 1: that have contributed to the bargaining clout of middle and
- 6:21Speaker 1: lower wage workers, or at least two factors. One is
- 6:25Speaker 1: very tight labor market and f I mentioned earlier, that's
- 6:28Speaker 1: been very much the exception, not the rule, over the
- 6:32Speaker 1: last few decades, um and And the other is unionization.
- 6:36Speaker 1: And your numbers are correct, I would simply um add
- 6:41Speaker 1: to them that in the private sector, which is where
- 6:43Speaker 1: most people work, uh, the unionization rate is only seven percent.
- 6:47Speaker 1: So that's that's you know, getting a way below not
- 6:52Speaker 1: only where it used to be, but where it is
- 6:53Speaker 1: in in other advanced economies. There are some other factors
- 6:57Speaker 1: that help determine wages at the level of the minimum
- 6:59Speaker 1: way age, to the extent to which labor standards are enforced,
- 7:03Speaker 1: the structure of employment. You've got the gig work that
- 7:06Speaker 1: can sometimes play out in paychecks and ways that are
- 7:10Speaker 1: negative for workers. But if you put it all together,
- 7:13Speaker 1: the factors that used to give workers, more bargaining power,
- 7:17Speaker 1: tight labor markets, high unionization rates, rigorously enforced labor standards.
- 7:22Speaker 1: Many of those are things of the past. Right, you
- 7:25Speaker 1: think that would be pretty good to be in an union.
- 7:27Speaker 1: If you're a worker at a D and T, you
- 7:29Speaker 1: have a pension, you have ritary health benefits, you probably
- 7:33Speaker 1: have a bunch of other parts that people in the
- 7:35Speaker 1: rest of corporate America gave up a long time ago. Right, Well, yes,
- 7:39Speaker 1: there are definitely some unions that are still able to
- 7:42Speaker 1: deliver that those kinds of benefits to their members. Um.
- 7:46Speaker 1: Public sector unions often do a pretty good job, which
- 7:50Speaker 1: is one reason why they're under siege and many states
- 7:53Speaker 1: throughout the throughout the nation. Uh. And if you compare
- 7:59Speaker 1: union workers to non union workers just based on their wages,
- 8:02Speaker 1: controlling for everything else, there's still a significant premium there somewhere,
- 8:06Speaker 1: I guess between ten and fiftent at least. But an
- 8:10Speaker 1: interesting finding that that's germained to our conversation is that
- 8:14Speaker 1: when unionization rates get higher, so right now they're about
- 8:19Speaker 1: as you said here, but back when they're or if
- 8:22Speaker 1: you go over to Europe and you see uh, union
- 8:25Speaker 1: rates that are considerably higher than that you end up
- 8:28Speaker 1: with a lot more pattern bargaining or collective bargaining where
- 8:32Speaker 1: union wages enforced the pay of workers outside the union sector.
- 8:36Speaker 1: So there's a spill over there that can happen as well.
- 8:38Speaker 1: And you certainly don't see that when you're down to
- 8:40Speaker 1: the kind of levels of of collective bargaining that we
- 8:43Speaker 1: have our nations with that still have higher union membership
- 8:49Speaker 1: rates experiencing faster wage growth than the United States has
- 8:55Speaker 1: been with declining union membership, or has it been fairly
- 8:58Speaker 1: consistent worldwide? Well, I think on average you wouldn't really
- 9:02Speaker 1: find that UM, But I think if you look distributionally,
- 9:07Speaker 1: their their wage distributions tend to be UM tighter, less
- 9:12Speaker 1: dispersed than ours, They have less wage inequality, less less
- 9:16Speaker 1: earnings dispersion UM, and in fact, in many cases, as
- 9:20Speaker 1: their unionization rates go down, they end up with more
- 9:23Speaker 1: of that UM. An important early study found that about
- 9:27Speaker 1: a fifth of the increase in in wage dispersion, at
- 9:31Speaker 1: least among men, was attributed to the decline in unionization.
- 9:35Speaker 1: Now fifth may not sound like a ton, but that
- 9:37Speaker 1: was the largest factor that I think anyone's ever uncovered
- 9:40Speaker 1: in that in that research. Is it harder to organize
- 9:43Speaker 1: labor unions these days, or oh yes, yeah, is there
- 9:47Speaker 1: more apathy among workers or what is it? Well, I
- 9:50Speaker 1: don't know that there's more apathy among workers. And in fact,
- 9:54Speaker 1: if you pull people depending on the question, you know,
- 9:58Speaker 1: these surveys can be a little squirrelly. Many people will
- 10:01Speaker 1: say something to the effect of, we recognize that we
- 10:04Speaker 1: need some form of an organization to push back on
- 10:10Speaker 1: UM the kinds of things that our employers are trying
- 10:13Speaker 1: to do to us. Now. They might not like the
- 10:14Speaker 1: word union, but that's a pretty consistent finding. I think
- 10:18Speaker 1: what's really different now is that there is a depocketed,
- 10:22Speaker 1: multi billion dollar union avoidance industry, and you know, you'll
- 10:27Speaker 1: see stores like Walmart closed down a franchise somewhere if
- 10:33Speaker 1: they're worried that it's going to become unionized. So the UH,
- 10:37Speaker 1: the anti union initiatives taken by UM employers, not not all,
- 10:44Speaker 1: by the way, but those who are particularly averse to
- 10:46Speaker 1: UH to union membership UM have gotten a lot more aggressive.
- 10:51Speaker 1: I do think that workers probably think differently about unions
- 10:55Speaker 1: than they used to. I know there was a case
- 10:57Speaker 1: pretty recently, I think it was Volkswagen in maybe Tennessee,
- 11:01Speaker 1: where the workers voted not to form a bargaining unit unit.
- 11:06Speaker 1: And I wonder if some of what was going on
- 11:09Speaker 1: there was a sense that the you know, the union
- 11:11Speaker 1: wasn't going to really help them all that much. Let's
- 11:14Speaker 1: drill down a little bit further into some of the
- 11:16Speaker 1: wage data you have. By all indicators a tight labor market.
- 11:20Speaker 1: The retail sector is a major is a fairly significant
- 11:24Speaker 1: part of our employment. I think it's around fourteen fifteen
- 11:27Speaker 1: million people are employed in retail. Uh, they're fairly low paid. UH.
- 11:32Speaker 1: Maybe the wage gains, at least in some of the
- 11:34Speaker 1: recent data have been have been pretty flat. Would could
- 11:38Speaker 1: would they be potentially faster if there was more union
- 11:43Speaker 1: organization in that sector or do you think there are
- 11:47Speaker 1: other forces at play? I think that you'll find union
- 11:51Speaker 1: wages are higher, as I mentioned earlier, that there's a
- 11:55Speaker 1: premium there. Whether they're growing faster or not. UM, that's
- 11:59Speaker 1: probably a tougher call. I don't I don't know that
- 12:02Speaker 1: I've seen so much of that in the data. So
- 12:04Speaker 1: probably more of a level story than a growth story.
- 12:08Speaker 1: I think, you know, economists are scratching our heads over
- 12:11Speaker 1: the the what we call the flatness of the Phillips curve,
- 12:14Speaker 1: which is just a fancy way of saying the breakdown
- 12:16Speaker 1: and the correlation between tight labor markets and price growth
- 12:20Speaker 1: and wage growth. Uh, whether you're looking at prices or wages,
- 12:25Speaker 1: you might expect there to be more uh growth when
- 12:28Speaker 1: you're you're down at an unemployment rate that's four point
- 12:31Speaker 1: four percent. But there are many explanations for that, by
- 12:34Speaker 1: the way. One is that the federal reserves, at least
- 12:37Speaker 1: in terms of inflation or prices, has kind of locked
- 12:40Speaker 1: in everybody's heads that are going to target two percent
- 12:42Speaker 1: no matter what, so inflation is really quote well anchored.
- 12:46Speaker 1: Another is, of course, the bargaining power story that I've
- 12:48Speaker 1: I've been talking about we've been discussing throughout our our conversation.
- 12:53Speaker 1: Uh and UH. Another is the bargaining power discussion that
- 12:58Speaker 1: we've been having uh throughout our conversation. UH. And then
- 13:02Speaker 1: there is kind of a sectual story, as you were suggesting, UM,
- 13:06Speaker 1: there are sectors in our economy that are facing a
- 13:11Speaker 1: set of pressures they didn't face fourty or fifty years ago.
- 13:14Speaker 1: For instance, our manufacturers are in much more of a
- 13:18Speaker 1: global competitive situation than they were back in those days
- 13:23Speaker 1: of you know, literally two and three percent unemployment rates
- 13:26Speaker 1: if you go back to the nineteen sixties. UM and so,
- 13:30Speaker 1: uh what what While globalization has many upsides, no question,
- 13:35Speaker 1: particularly in terms of the supply of resources, liquid supply
- 13:41Speaker 1: chains and all that, UM, for many workers, blue collar workers,
- 13:46Speaker 1: production workers, workers and manufacturing, that kind of wage competition
- 13:50Speaker 1: has hurt them. M. That's become a very politically salient
- 13:53Speaker 1: effect in recent years. Need I say, Jared, In some
- 13:57Speaker 1: cases corporations are you for unions and not for the
- 14:00Speaker 1: best reasons. I used to report in Mexico, and there's
- 14:03Speaker 1: a practice they're called protection contracts, which has become standard.
- 14:07Speaker 1: It's basically an agreement between a company, in these case
- 14:10Speaker 1: automakers and an union that doesn't legitimately represent workers, UM,
- 14:15Speaker 1: which agrees even years before they break ground on the plant,
- 14:17Speaker 1: to keep wages really, really low. I'm wondering if you've
- 14:21Speaker 1: ever seen anything similar in the US, or basically if
- 14:24Speaker 1: you haven't, what's the bad side of unionizing. Yeah, I
- 14:28Speaker 1: think that those are these kind of basically management kind
- 14:32Speaker 1: of puppet unions UM. And I don't know that we've
- 14:36Speaker 1: had so much of that in this country. We've certainly
- 14:40Speaker 1: seen that in UM countries without much of the kind
- 14:44Speaker 1: of more industrialized union base that got started here in
- 14:48Speaker 1: the in in the Great Depression, UH, and you know,
- 14:51Speaker 1: fought their way off and violently into a much more
- 14:57Speaker 1: solid part of the job market, at least until their
- 15:00Speaker 1: membership really started to erode back in the in the
- 15:04Speaker 1: eighties or so with the pat Co strike. But if
- 15:07Speaker 1: you go back to the days of early unionism and
- 15:10Speaker 1: to sit down strike at Flint in the nineteen thirties, UM,
- 15:14Speaker 1: there was these were militant unions sometimes and militant management
- 15:19Speaker 1: by the way on the other side, and they were
- 15:21Speaker 1: fighting tooth and nail for UM what I'm calling bargaining power.
- 15:25Speaker 1: But back then they would have very much have seen
- 15:28Speaker 1: as h pushing back on essentially a corrupt system that
- 15:33Speaker 1: wasn't affording them the UH the pay that they believe
- 15:37Speaker 1: they deserved. So we we have to my knowledge, and
- 15:41Speaker 1: I must say that I haven't focused on this as much,
- 15:44Speaker 1: especially as unionization rates have gotten so low, But we
- 15:47Speaker 1: haven't had the kind of company union so much here
- 15:49Speaker 1: that you're describing in Mexico, Jared. When we originally were
- 15:54Speaker 1: coming up with the idea for this topic on this podcast,
- 15:58Speaker 1: we were looking at the the Hollywood writers, the TV writers,
- 16:02Speaker 1: and they were threatening to go on strike, and we
- 16:04Speaker 1: were going to do a show about how they were
- 16:06Speaker 1: on strike and what that says about the economy. And
- 16:09Speaker 1: in fact, at the very last minute, they reached a
- 16:11Speaker 1: settlement with the studios and and got some uh what
- 16:15Speaker 1: what seemed like some some decent pay increases or benefit
- 16:19Speaker 1: or benefits from that deal. And also a year ago
- 16:22Speaker 1: we had this big Verizon strike and even though both
- 16:26Speaker 1: sides claimed victory, there was some indication that that this
- 16:30Speaker 1: strike was able to get some benefits for for the
- 16:33Speaker 1: Verizon workers that maybe they wouldn't have had if they
- 16:36Speaker 1: weren't able to get organized. Now, putting these events together,
- 16:40Speaker 1: are these two things representative of what unions can still
- 16:45Speaker 1: do in the economy or they really kind of the
- 16:47Speaker 1: exception to the rule when it comes to workers bargaining
- 16:51Speaker 1: power these days, more the exception than the rule. Uh. Interestingly,
- 16:57Speaker 1: I think the way people in the union movement are
- 17:01Speaker 1: starting to think about the way forward. And remember, we
- 17:04Speaker 1: talked about a seven percent unionization rate in the private sector,
- 17:07Speaker 1: and that's as we've been saying, that's a multi decade trend.
- 17:11Speaker 1: And those kinds of trends are hard to turn around.
- 17:13Speaker 1: So folks are trying to think outside the box, and
- 17:16Speaker 1: they're thinking less about well, actually, in a way, it's
- 17:20Speaker 1: it's less about the kind of the Brizon model and
- 17:22Speaker 1: more the writer's model. That is, UH, instead of thinking
- 17:26Speaker 1: about organizing an industry, organizing a sector, organizing fast food,
- 17:31Speaker 1: or organizing retail, they're thinking about how they can organize
- 17:36Speaker 1: place by place. Now, this would take a change in
- 17:39Speaker 1: labor law, UM, and so you're not going to see
- 17:42Speaker 1: that from this administration. But the idea is that especially
- 17:46Speaker 1: with a more sort of what some people call the
- 17:49Speaker 1: the fisher economy or the gig economy, the the W
- 17:53Speaker 1: two economy, the idea that you're working maybe less for
- 17:56Speaker 1: a particular employer, there's more UM of self employment, UH,
- 18:03Speaker 1: independent contracting, things like that. UM. With with with those
- 18:06Speaker 1: kinds of developments going on, UM, people are starting to
- 18:10Speaker 1: think more about trying to form unions at a particular
- 18:16Speaker 1: restaurant versus UH the restaurant industry. UM that that if
- 18:21Speaker 1: they're able to pull that off, that may may give
- 18:23Speaker 1: them some uh may give them some success. So Jerry,
- 18:28Speaker 1: we definitely have a tight labor market. We saw a
- 18:31Speaker 1: high number of openings and quits this morning. So with
- 18:34Speaker 1: or without unions, what's it gonna take for us to
- 18:36Speaker 1: see higher wages in the US? Well, I think the
- 18:39Speaker 1: wage story is a really interesting one. Um. Uh. Wages
- 18:43Speaker 1: have accelerated, as I'm sure you know, if you go back,
- 18:48Speaker 1: uh a year and a half or so, wages we're
- 18:50Speaker 1: growing two percent year over year nominal. Uh. Now they're
- 18:54Speaker 1: growing somewhere between two point five and three percent. I
- 18:57Speaker 1: have an index that I put together which takes five
- 19:00Speaker 1: different series and smashes it together in some sort of
- 19:03Speaker 1: sophisticated waiting way. Um, and uh, it's it's growing. It
- 19:08Speaker 1: was growing two percent, now it's growing two point eight percent. Um.
- 19:11Speaker 1: So we're getting some some uh bump. But the thing
- 19:17Speaker 1: that's got me nervous now, and this is only a
- 19:19Speaker 1: few months so these numbers, as you know, are jumpy,
- 19:22Speaker 1: is that if you look at the blue collar wage
- 19:25Speaker 1: or the wage of non managers and services, so of
- 19:29Speaker 1: the workforce that's not in the that that's that's in
- 19:32Speaker 1: those categories. Um, they went from two to two point
- 19:36Speaker 1: five and they've just been sitting at two point five
- 19:39Speaker 1: for a number of months, even as the jobless rate
- 19:41Speaker 1: has come down. Now, if you look at the other
- 19:45Speaker 1: of the workforce with higher wages, they've started growing at
- 19:48Speaker 1: a pace that's closer to three or even north of three.
- 19:51Speaker 1: And so I'm worried that there's this wage inequality problem evolving. Uh,
- 19:55Speaker 1: and I gotta be watching that. It's definitely a story
- 19:59Speaker 1: that we will will continue to follow here at Bloomberg
- 20:02Speaker 1: and on Benchmark. Jared Bernstein, thank you so much for
- 20:06Speaker 1: being with us today. My pleasure Benchmark will be back
- 20:09Speaker 1: next week and until then, you can find us on
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- 20:26Speaker 1: of the show. You can follow me on Twitter at
- 20:29Speaker 1: at Scott Landman Patty you are at Patty Lea, and
- 20:34Speaker 1: our guest Jared Bernstein is at at icon. Jared Benchmark
- 20:38Speaker 1: is produced by Sarah Patterson. The head of Bloomberg Podcast
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