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Chuck’s Commentary - Republicans In Triage Mode As The Map Gets Worse + Elon’s Insane Campaign Spending · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Todd cast is brought to
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  Speaker 1: you by Chapter. Now, almost everything you hear about Medicare
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: is somebody quietly trying to steer you somewhere. And you're
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: skeptical of that, as you should be. I get it.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a federal lawsuit going on right now
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  Speaker 1: over exactly this. Companies that branded themselves as unbiased while
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  Speaker 1: to distrust everyone in this space, honestly, I get it.
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  Speaker 1: I'm a bit distrustful these days myself. That's the whole
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  Speaker 1: reason I want to tell you about Chapter. They're independent
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  Speaker 1: Medicare advisors whose entire model is that their advisors are
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  Speaker 1: lot of people are throwing themselves in this healthcare space.
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• 2:10
  Speaker 2: 3-9-8-5 Hello there.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: I'm Chuck Todd. Welcome to another episode of the Chuck
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  Speaker 1: Todd cast. It is in. We are in nitty gritty
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  Speaker 1: time inside of three weeks until Election Day. Less than
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  Speaker 1: 20 days at this point in the campaign. I know
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  Speaker 1: what I'm doing. I'm spending a lot less time listening
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  Speaker 1: to what the campaigns are saying publicly. And I'm spending
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: a lot more time watching what they're doing privately and
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: watching really what the parties are doing with their money.
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  Speaker 1: That's the information that matters at this point. If you
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: haven't figured out your messaging yet, if you think you've
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: got a great piece of oppo research and you haven't
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: used it, you're probably too late, right? You are not
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  Speaker 1: introducing new messaging now. At this point, it is all
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  Speaker 1: about reinforcing whatever it is that has been working for
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  Speaker 1: you or what's not working for you. And so this
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  Speaker 1: is why we're inside this period of time where The
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: news that matters is going to be these little insider
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: tidbits that I'm going to be sharing with you throughout
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: this podcast, right? Where are the committees still spending money?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Where are they pulling their money? Which candidates want presidential visits?
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  Speaker 1: Which ones would probably prefer if Mr. Trump would stay
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  Speaker 1: as far away as possible? I know one of the
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  Speaker 1: things I've learned covering campaigns for the last 30 plus
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: years is that the last three weeks are when the
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: political professionals that are running the show start telling you
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  Speaker 1: what they really think, even if they don't actually say
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  Speaker 1: a thing.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 1: Usually the most revealing thing they can do. is suddenly
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  Speaker 1: stop writing checks, stop spending money somewhere. I've spent a
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  Speaker 1: lot of the last few episodes talking about the possibility
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  Speaker 1: that we are underestimating this either red undertow or blue wave,
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  Speaker 1: whichever framing you prefer. We have an expanding Senate map,
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  Speaker 1: and I have more news today to deliver to you,
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  Speaker 1: showing the map is that even the Republicans are playing
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  Speaker 1: an expanded defense on this map. There is an asymmetry
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  Speaker 1: to what the two parties are up to right now.
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  Speaker 1: Democratic candidates are working hard to try to separate themselves
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  Speaker 1: from their national brand. And you've got a bunch of
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  Speaker 1: Republican candidates who some of whom know they need to
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  Speaker 1: separate themselves from Donald Trump, but they haven't figured out
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  Speaker 1: how to do it very well. I will say this
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  Speaker 1: Tuesday morning brought another example, but it came from somebody
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: I kind of expected it to, John Sununu in a
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  Speaker 1: debate in New Hampshire. But I do want to get
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  Speaker 1: a little bit more in the weeds in this episode.
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to look at the Republican retreat in some
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  Speaker 1: key House races. You know, to do it this early
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  Speaker 1: out means, you know, the triage is beginning. The incredible
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  Speaker 1: expensive effort that Republicans have now to try to save
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  Speaker 1: their Senate majority and how they've declared Ohio is the
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  Speaker 1: last stand. Texas may be the most expensive state to defend,
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  Speaker 1: but Ohio's getting the most money. We've got some new
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  Speaker 1: economic data that only reinforces this. why people like myself
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  Speaker 1: and others believe this may be bigger than just a
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  Speaker 1: traditional political wave, that something bigger may be happening here.
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  Speaker 1: I've got a few items from what I would call
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  Speaker 1: my Washington notebook, sort of what's happening, you know, including
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  Speaker 1: the extraordinary situation with Kimberly Guilfoyle, you know, and sort
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  Speaker 1: of what the rules are in the world of Trump,
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  Speaker 1: you know, what is legal and what is illegal, not
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  Speaker 1: in real life, but just in the world of Trump.
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  Speaker 1: I got a little something about the search of Ilhan
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  Speaker 1: Omar's home and how close to an election this was done.
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  Speaker 1: And that was clearly an intentional decision, but one that
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  Speaker 1: probably sets them back legally. We got troubling developments in
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  Speaker 1: the war in Iran and Ilhan Musk's decision to be
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  Speaker 1: now the biggest target in American politics. I don't think.
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  Speaker 1: I think he's going to regret what he's doing. After that,
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  Speaker 1: I'll have my most recent top 10 list of governor's
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  Speaker 1: races that are gonna flip. And yes, I expanded it
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  Speaker 1: to 10. And the news I'm gonna be making is
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  Speaker 1: there are gonna be two states that most people would
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  Speaker 1: have put on their list that I will not be
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  Speaker 1: including because of the direction of what is this blue wave.
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  Speaker 1: And I've got a pretty significant take on why The
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  Speaker 1: governor's races will tell us the level of repudiation more
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  Speaker 1: than what happens in the House and the Senate. And
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  Speaker 1: I'll have more on that after the interview with Paul.
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  Speaker 1: But first, let's talk about what the Republican Party is
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  Speaker 1: increasingly having to deal with. And that is some difficult choices.
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  Speaker 1: Because here's the question I think will define the last
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  Speaker 1: three weeks of this election. How many Republicans can survive
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  Speaker 1: an anti-Trump election by convincing voters they're not really Trump Republicans?
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  Speaker 1: And the answer to that question could very much determine
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  Speaker 1: control of the U.S. Senate. You know, it's interesting to me.
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  Speaker 1: Think about the Republicans who still have a plausible path
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  Speaker 1: to victory in some increasingly difficult Senate races. Susan Collins
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  Speaker 1: in Maine. I'm going to include Mike Rounds in South Dakota,
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  Speaker 1: who's just recently scrubbed his website of Trump. He's facing
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  Speaker 1: not a Democrat, but an independent. The Democrats did not
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  Speaker 1: have no nominee on the ballot. So this is one
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  Speaker 1: of those R versus I situations a la Nebraska. Dan
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  Speaker 1: Sullivan in Alaska and John Husted in Ohio. But I
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  Speaker 1: want to single out those four. Collins, Rounds, Sullivan, and Husted, right?
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  Speaker 1: And then I want you to compare them to Paxton, Whatley, Collins.
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  Speaker 1: Whatley is North Carolina. Collins is Georgia. The other, you know,
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  Speaker 1: the other, you know, and the Democrat, the Republican congressman,
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  Speaker 1: not Susan. And then Ken Paxton, right? Because the four
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  Speaker 1: Republican senators that to me still have a plausible path
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  Speaker 1: to surviving, They're not identical politicians, but they all have
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  Speaker 1: very different relationship with Trump, both the individual and Trumpism.
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  Speaker 1: Because what interests me about all four of them is
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  Speaker 1: that none of them is especially identified with the MAGA
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  Speaker 1: wing of the party. They've all in their own ways
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  Speaker 1: expressed some discomfort with the MAGA wing. Look, I'm not
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  Speaker 1: suggesting any of them is somehow a profile in courage
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  Speaker 1: when it comes to standing up to this president. That's
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  Speaker 1: not my point. But my point is on voter perception
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  Speaker 1: in their own states. So, for instance, if Collins survives Maine,
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  Speaker 1: the explanation isn't going to be that voters suddenly embraced
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Trumpism, that they suddenly in Maine think
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  Speaker 1: the economy is good. It's going to be that enough
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  Speaker 1: voters who dislike Trump decided, you know what, Susan Collins
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  Speaker 1: isn't part of the problem. They're going to determine that
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  Speaker 1: she's right now. You know, that's, you know, Troy Jackson.
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  Speaker 1: If he wins, it's because he's convinced enough people that no,
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  Speaker 1: even Susan Collins is part of the problem. But she's
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  Speaker 1: no Trumpy. And if she wins, it's not a notch
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  Speaker 1: in favor of Trump in Maine. It is despite Trump.
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  Speaker 1: And I think that's important. Dan Sullivan in Alaska rounds
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  Speaker 1: in South Dakota. You know, we'll be having similar conversations
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  Speaker 1: about personal brands and their own connections to voters and
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  Speaker 1: the fact that they got elected before Trump showed up.
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  Speaker 1: And so you would argue that they may have the
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  Speaker 1: best shot at surviving after Trump starts to leave the stage.
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  Speaker 1: But we're going to find out, have they preserved enough
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  Speaker 1: perceived independence from Trump? You know, do they have a
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  Speaker 1: reservoir of memory with their own voters that it's enough
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  Speaker 1: to keep them from being a vehicle for voters to say,
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  Speaker 1: you know what, I'm out. I'm out of the Trump
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  Speaker 1: movement and I'm firing you for being too much of
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  Speaker 1: an enabler, right? Ohio's an interesting test. Like, you know,
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  Speaker 1: John Husted, who clearly the president, was smitten with the
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  Speaker 1: other day of his physical attributes. Like, I know the
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  Speaker 1: internet is on fire about Donald Trump. And all I'll
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  Speaker 1: say is this, the older you get, the less the
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  Speaker 1: filter stays there. And your id comes out. And we've
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  Speaker 1: said this about Trump for the last few years, right? We,
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  Speaker 1: you know, Trump's Trump's barely had a filter as it is.
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  Speaker 1: As he's gotten older, you're getting the real, you're getting,
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  Speaker 1: you really are getting thought bubbles as they pop into
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  Speaker 1: his head. His, it has been interesting to watch him
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  Speaker 1: this year. His admiration for the male physique is something
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  Speaker 1: that I don't think a lot of people knew he
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  Speaker 1: had a fascination with. until he has used his rallies.
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  Speaker 1: And it just seems to come up a lot, right?
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  Speaker 1: You've heard Tom Tillis kind of imply that the reason
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  Speaker 1: Hegseth seems to get away with half the stuff he
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  Speaker 1: gets away with is that Trump's got a man crush
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  Speaker 1: on him in some form. However you want to describe
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  Speaker 1: the crush, but that Hegseth is just, you know, he's
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  Speaker 1: got the look, he's got the square jaw, and Trump
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  Speaker 1: is just enamored with him and the way he was
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  Speaker 1: with Houston. It's interesting. And for those of us that
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: have been... Trumpologists for a decade or so now. Let's
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: just say that there are nonversations about what this really
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: is about Trump that are flourishing in many a group chat.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: But I digress. Let's go back to John Houston. Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump's personal affection for him aside, he's in a tough spot, right?
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  Speaker 1: He was not elected to that Senate seat. He was
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  Speaker 1: the Lieutenant Governor. He was appointed to replace J.D. Vance
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  Speaker 1: when he got elevated. And he's trying to win a
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  Speaker 1: full term, not a full term even. This is just
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  Speaker 1: to finish the Vance term for two years. Remember, the
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  Speaker 1: winner of this John Huston, Sherrod Brown race, you know
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  Speaker 1: what you get? You get to run again in two years,
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  Speaker 1: which is why I was always a little bit skeptical
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  Speaker 1: that Brown was going to sign up for this because
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  Speaker 1: he just ran in 24 and lost. Now he's running again.
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  Speaker 1: If he wins, he's got to run again in 28. Man,
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  Speaker 1: he's in his early to mid 70s. That's a lot.
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  Speaker 2: But, you know, Sherrod Brown, he rolls up his sleeves
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  Speaker 2: and he's always ready to go. So he's going to
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  Speaker 2: keep running. I have no doubt in my mind there.
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  Speaker 2: But I think it's it ain't a lot of fun
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  Speaker 2: that you got to do this again.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: But let's be realistic. Republicans have been worried about Houston
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  Speaker 1: for months. The Senate Republican super PAC poured yet has
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  Speaker 1: already apparently poured 100 million into the race. And it
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: doesn't include all the other outside Republican spending coming more
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  Speaker 1: from Elon Musk or from fair shake the crypto people. Ohio, right,
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  Speaker 1: really is, it's funny, as defensive as many Republicans are
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: getting about Texas, I think the operative wing of the
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Republican Party, particularly the Trump world, does see Ohio truly
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: as the firewall. But they've got to forget Iowa, right?
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  Speaker 1: If they can, you know, if they can hold the
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  Speaker 1: line in Ohio, they're going to hold the line in Iowa.
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  Speaker 1: And they've determined that Ohio, they've And look, it's over
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  Speaker 1: the last couple of cycles, Biden became the first Democratic
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  Speaker 1: president since John F. Kennedy to win the White House
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  Speaker 1: without Ohio. So they're spending presidential-like money this cycle to
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  Speaker 1: protect the Senate seat there, and Trump's going to go
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  Speaker 1: back to Ohio. Now, look, this is where Houston's just
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  Speaker 1: in such a jam, right? He's not a MAGA Republican,
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  Speaker 1: but he doesn't have his own individual brand. That would
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: give him some distance from Trump. And then you throw
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  Speaker 1: in the fact that Ramaswamy is his ticket mate, who's
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  Speaker 1: the Republican nominee. And, you know, Vivek's not going to
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  Speaker 1: try to separate himself from Trump. He's he was part
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: of the Doge movement.
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  Speaker 2: He is.
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  Speaker 1: We wouldn't have Ramaswamy without Trump. Right. Ramaswamy would, you know,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: without Trump getting elected in 16, Ramaswamy would just be
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: working in Silicon Valley. And we may or may not
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: know who he is. And so it's hard for Houston
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  Speaker 1: to separate himself. And he does need Trump's voters to
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: show up. That's been the key to Republican success in
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  Speaker 1: Ohio the last few cycles. But does a Trump rally
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  Speaker 1: really help him? I mean, you know, the last rally
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  Speaker 1: only seemed to concentrate people on John Houston's physique through
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  Speaker 1: the eyes of Donald Trump. And I don't know if
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  Speaker 1: the reminder helps, but I understand why he's sort of
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  Speaker 1: in this dilemma. And I think that this is this
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: is this is the problem Republicans have all over in
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: the fact that this is turning into a red undertow election.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: It's like on one hand, they need the Trump voter
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: to show up. On the other hand, the Trump voters
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: really pissed off right now. Right. So I get that
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Republicans want to treat Ohio as sort of the last
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: stand in the Senate in the sense that it's one
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: of the places they have to demonstrate that they can
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: survive there in an environment that's moving against them. Right.
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  Speaker 1: And look, if they stop if they can stop the
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Democrats in Ohio, they probably prevent a Democratic Senate majority. Um,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: they might even prevent a majority of governors going to
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: the Democrats. So I see why they view Ohio as
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: sort of the, the super firewall there, but, um, and
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: it would certainly complicate Democrats path to the Senate, but
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: let's see any evidence that this is working yet in Ohio. Uh,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: and Ohio is very, very price sensitive, uh, at the moment. Um,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: It is worth noting, Democrats are now, they're all in
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: on Ohio. They've poured another $ 7 million in. They poured
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: another $ 2. 5 million in Iowa, and they're making a $ 5
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: million investment in Kansas. Meanwhile, Senate Republican groups are spending,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: have added money to Nebraska. Pete Ricketts, who's facing not
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: a Democrat, but an independent named Dan Osborne. So you've
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: got national party money moving into Nebraska. You've got obviously
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: they're worried about Alaska. They're pouring more money into Texas.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: But the fact that they feel like they've got to
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: they're they're they're spending money in Kansas. They were hoping
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: to avoid that. So they basically pulled money. The Republicans
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: have pulled money out of Georgia and North Carolina, poured
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: it into Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio. It hasn't gotten and
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: they've put some money into South Carolina. We've yet to
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: see them move it into South Dakota and Mississippi. But
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: those are the last two on my competitive list. that
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: I'm waiting to see what happens. Meanwhile, Democrats have finally
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: decided they now can pull their money out of North
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Carolina and Georgia. They were waiting a little bit longer
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: than the Republicans. Understandable. You can't take anything for granted.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: But look, you see where this is going. The pattern's
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: hard to miss. Democrats are moving resources into states that
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: six months ago they never thought would be competitive. Republicans
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: are moving resources into states six months ago that they
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: never thought they would have to defend. That's the story
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: of this election at the moment. Democrats are in expand
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: the map mode. Republicans are in retreat mode and triage mode.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Pure and simple. It's happening on all levels. It's happening
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: in the Senate. It's happening in governor's races. And it's
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: in particular happening a lot in House races. And one
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: thing to watch for over the next 20 days is
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: whether the Republican candidates who survive, I think, are the
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: ones who have managed to preserve the political identity that
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: they had pre-Donald Trump. And the irony may be that
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: being an establishment Republican that has distance from Trump might
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: actually be a better identifier to have with voters than
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: to be considered part of the Trump establishment. It's possible
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: that being anti-Trump is now anti-establishment, even if your name
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: is Susan Collins or Mike Rounds. I'm not guaranteeing that's
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: what it's there, but it's not lost on me. that
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: the places where Republicans think they can survive are the
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: places where they have the least Trumpy nominees. Hey, this
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  Speaker 1: money at a time that my mother, newly widowed, single mom, me,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: I'm 16. It was of enormous, enormous help at that time.
• 18:48
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• 18:51
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  Speaker 1: rates may vary. That Trustpilot rating was as of August
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: of 2026. Now let's look at the house. Just how
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: big could this get for Democrats? There's some limitations here, right?
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: But there's another set of numbers out there that I
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: think tells us quite a bit about where things are headed.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Republican outside groups are now making some difficult decisions. And
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: we saw earlier this week News on the Republican side
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: that they've pulled support, both in one was a target
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: race in Michigan's eighth, two were defenses, New Jersey seven,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: which is Tom Kane, Iowa one, Marianne Miller Meeks. When
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: you pull funding from a sitting incumbent, you know, that
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: that tells you how serious they are. And it tells
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: you that they're that even the even the Republicans, House
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Republicans are a bit resource. They're in a bit of
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: a resource crunch. They can't afford– look, Tom Kane's seat
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: in New Jersey is very expensive. He had the weird–
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: he disappeared for a while. Democrats have a very good
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: nominee in that race. It was already swingy. It's just a–
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: it's just very expensive. Iowa has become expensive simply because
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: of how busy the airwaves are. And there are two
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: other races that they'd like to try to save there,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: the statewide race of the Senate, Iowa 3, which is
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Zach Nunn's, the Des Moines area district, and then the
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: open seat. that they're trying to. So there are other
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: reasons to prioritize what you can do in there. But
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: you're seeing, you know, pulling money from an incumbent. And
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: Marianne Miller-Meeks has been, you know, she won one race
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: a couple cycles ago by six votes. But the fact
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: that they're starting to pull that tells you something. Meanwhile,
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: the DCCC is in expansion mode. They've added one of
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: the seats that were part of the dummy mander, right?
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Florida's 22nd district. They're now spending more money in Florida 9,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: the Darren Soto district. It's, again, just like with the Senate.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: One party is expanding the map. The other party is
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: trying to shrink it. It's a pretty good indication. We
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: know which direction the political wind is blowing. We just
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: don't know how strong the wind is going to be.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: But there's one other way to look at this. There's
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: a great chart that I've been using comparing the 2024
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: presidential vote in a series of Republican-held or Republican-leaning House
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: districts with the current 2026 forecast from our friends at DDHQ.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: And what the chart gives me is a way to
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: measure how large the potential Democratic wave could get. So
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: I just mentioned the Darren Soto District, Florida 9. Trump
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: carried it by 18 points in 2024. Does that mean
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: it was really a D plus 18 seat or did
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Latino voters over-index for Trump in one election and it
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: sort of it made people perceive that that district was
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: more Trumpy or more Republican than it is. Well, the
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: beauty of this forecast is it kind of is ironing
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: out that surge of Latino vote. And this is the
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: big shift that has really hurt Republicans, particularly in some
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: of these, you know, in Texas Senate, but really in
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: a lot of these Southern and Sunbelt battlegrounds, is that
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: the Latino vote is not They voted for Trump in 24,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: but that didn't mean they became– they rented Trump. They
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: didn't buy, right? And they're ready to flip back pretty easily.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: So yes, you can sit here and say a Florida
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: 9 is going to– now it's projected to be an
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: R plus 2 district, which means that's a winnable scenario
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: for Darren Soto. This is part of the redistricting competition
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: in Florida. Now, is the environment shifting 16 points? I
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: don't think it's shifting 16 points. I think the environment
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: is shifting 10 to 12. But I think in certain
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: parts of the electorate, Trump over-indexed with certain voting groups,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: younger voters and Latino voters. They have flipped back in
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: a hard way the other way. I think that's why
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: you see what appears to be dramatic movements or perceived
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: movements of where this electorate is going. I think it
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: was never a D plus 18 seat. in 2024, just
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: like Kansas wasn't really D plus 16, you know, but
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: it's just that he sort of over-indexed in the moment.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: The district, you know, I want to watch election night.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: I always, you know, are looking for early tea leaves.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: And this list has two districts on it that for
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: me are the early tea leaves to determine how big will,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: could this get for Democrats? One is Kentucky's 6th District.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: This is the Lexington seat, the University of Kentucky seat.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Used to be very swingy when one of the late
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Happy Chandlers, Graham Kids, was the member of Congress there.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: Andy Barr used to lose when he was running to
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: represent that part of Kentucky in Congress. When he won,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: it was sort of a whole shift of the state
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: went to the right. And now you're seeing this district
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: get very competitive. This is one of those, if Democrats
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: are winning Kentucky 6, or if Democrats, and it's an
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: early poll closing, so we're going to know Kentucky 6 by, say,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: 7.30 or 8 p.m. Eastern time on election night, then
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: you know this thing's going to get big. South Carolina won.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: That's the Nancy Mace district. This has been redistricted to
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: be more Republican than the last time it went Democratic
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: back in the last decade. It was R plus 13,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: if you believe the presidential numbers in South Carolina won.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Right now, DDHQ projects it as R plus five. Well,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: if Darlene Graham is as weak as we think at
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the top of the ticket, and that race is too
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: close to call it poll close, and that's an early
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: poll closing state, 730, I believe is what South Carolina is. Well,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: that also, and South Carolina won, right? Democrats picked that
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: one up, then we're looking at the 35 to 40
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: seat scenario, and maybe bigger. But those are two early ones.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: There are two more in Virginia, 7 p.m. poll closing
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: time that I'm obsessed with. The first district, Rob Whitman's district,
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: and the fifth district, which still has Charlottesville in it,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: but it's pretty Republican. Tom Perriello once represented a portion
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: of it. Both of those are districts... Look, Whitman was
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: trending towards the Democrats, the first district. It sort of
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: got a little bit of the Richmond suburbs, and it's
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: what's been happening in sort of the northern neck and
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: things like that, if you know your Virginia geography. The
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: fifth is a Republican district that can underperform in a
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: bad year. And so the fifth would be one of
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: those that I suspect if Democrats won it. it would
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: probably be one that would flip right back in a
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: presidential year. Still, considering that in Virginia, they tried to
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: get rid of, you know, they could end up with
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: a 9-2 map without having to jerry-rig everything. Just keep
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: that in mind when you start to see about those things.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: So that's sort of another way of understanding this election
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: cycle and why early on, right? If Democrats are winning
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: districts that Trump carried in the five to eight point range, well,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: that's a 2006-like wave. If they're winning districts that Trump
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: carried from the 10 to 15 point range, that's something
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: considerably bigger. That's something, that means we're looking at a
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: Democratic version of the 1994 Republican wave, right? That was
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: a monstrous wave. That was a category five type of wave. 2006,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: it flipped both the House and the Senate, but it's
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: more like a category two, category three type of wave.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: And that's the difference. D plus five to eight versus,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: you know, a Trump plus five to eight election, whether
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: winning those Democrats, winning those seats versus the double digit seats.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: And if some of these Trump plus 15 districts start falling,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: you know, then it's we can't we won't even say
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: this is a extreme routine midterm correction. We might be
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: talking about a full on repudiation. And that this is
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: a reset, if you will. I don't think we're there yet.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: I think some of these Republican candidates that we're talking
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: about are the favorites. I think South Carolina one still
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: probably stays Republican. I think Virginia five probably stays Republican.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: But the fact that they're on the board, realistically on
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: the board, that's the debate we're having, right? Which is,
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: is this going to go from conventional repudiation to something bigger?
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: Because I'll tell you what we don't see any signs of,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: of the mirage. I'm I'm, you know, famous last words
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: and I can eat them. But the idea that this
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: turns into a blue mirage, my friend Patrick Ruffini is
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: constantly wondering if there's a lot of too much that
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the folks on the left are smoking too much opium.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: I hear you. But the political polls match the consumer confidence. Right.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: And the fact that, you know, it it it it
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: is it it you know, sometimes you look at something
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: and like, well, huh. Polls show it's stronger, but boy,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: the atmosphere feels different, right? Everything feels like it's aligning
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: in this one. And that brings me to the latest
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: consumer sentiment numbers out of the University of Michigan. We
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: got those over the weekend. These numbers, this is why
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty confident we're not overestimating. If anything, we could
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: be underestimating. The October preliminary index of consumer sentiment is
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: at a very paltry 46.3 on their scale. What does
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: that mean? Well, it was 48.1 in September, but more importantly,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: 46.3 is lower than any consumer confidence number that was
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: produced during the Biden presidency, okay? And remember how much
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: political damage inflation and consumer and the lack of confidence,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: consumer confidence did to the Biden presidency and Biden's politics
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: and Kamala Harris, okay? Well, consumer sentiment right now is
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: worse in October 2026 than it was at any point
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: in time during any part of the Biden presidency.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: And there's one more part of this University of Michigan
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: report that was released last week that I don't want
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: you to miss. Researchers also asked consumers how they expected
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: to respond over the next year to products that have
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: experienced especially large price increases, right? Thanks to energy spikes
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: or tariffs. Well, only 31% said they expected to keep
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: spending as usual, right? Only one in three voters, right? Well,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: here's your K-shaped economy, okay? 54% majority of people said
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: they're already planning to cut back. 16% said they'd be stopped,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: wouldn't even be buying those overly inflated prices, wouldn't be
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: buying those items at all, okay? So seven in 10
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: Americans expect to change their purchasing behavior simply because of
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: higher prices. 70%. That's a lot of Republicans, Democrats, and
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: independents when you're at 70%, right? And here's where you
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: can see the K-shaped part of this economy in this report.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: Among Americans in the bottom third of income earners, only 20%
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: expect to continue spending as usual. So basically 80% of
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: the paycheck to paycheck crowd feels like they have to
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: cut back. Among Americans who do not own stocks, just 18%
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: think they don't have to cut back. And guess what?
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Among the wealthiest who do own stocks, 50% expect to
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: spend as usual. Well, who do you think Donald Trump
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: is surrounded? I think about this. I looked at this
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: survey and I thought, who's Donald Trump interacting with, right?
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: If half the people with the biggest stock portfolios think
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: they'll be able to keep spending normally, well, that's who
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump lives with. That's who he interacts with. That's
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: who he sees at these rallies. That's who I think
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have a clue. at what his economic decisions
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: have done to the average American. And I think the
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: average American has decided, the guy who used to hear
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: us and who used to say the things, he seems
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: to say what I'm thinking, that ain't this Donald Trump anymore.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: So I definitely think that the lived experience on the
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: president's economic policy decisions is what's dooming Trump. And that's
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: why no amount of messaging, no amount of rallying, no
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: amount of owning the libs, BS, sue the networks, this
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: or that. The lived experience is trumping all of that.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: And this is why, in some ways, this looks even
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: more precarious for Republicans in red states than it does
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: even in the blue states. You can talk all you
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: want about economic growth, right? You can point to the
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: stock market. But again, what about people without stock, right?
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: It is.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: It is voters are making decisions based on what's actually
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: happening to them. And this ain't going well for Trump.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: Gas prices, just to give you, right, gas prices were
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: under $ 3 a gallon before the war began in February
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: of this calendar year. We were just starting the primary
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: process to decide who our nominees were. And gas was
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: under $ 3. It got to $ 4. 50 in May. And we're
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: back to around 450 right now. That's not good. Consumer
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: concerns and tariffs are what dominated 2025. Now you add
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: in the gas prices and the tariffs haven't gone away.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: And what's interesting here is how Republicans in this survey,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: they rhetorically are backing up, they're more optimistic about the
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: state of the economy. But then when you ask them
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: what they're doing, they behave like people who don't think
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: this is a good economy. So we know that people
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: politically answer is the economy in good or bad, you know,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: that they answer with their jersey. But when you start
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: to ask them about what they're doing with spending, that's
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: a different story. They're not answering as partisans. They're just
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: answering as their lived experience. And that's where you see
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: the disconnect because you see people who are voicing optimism,
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: but at the same time saying, telling us that they're
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: cutting back. That's the lived experience. That's why Donald Trump
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: has a problem convincing people, just give it more time,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: just give it more time. He's been doing this now
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: for six months with this Iran war, promising that somehow
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: it's around the corner, costs are going to come down.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: You'll never believe. And here we are. All people have
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: is the experience they're living with in the moment, and
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: it is not a good experience. All right, let me unload.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: Quick little few things on sort of the Washington front.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: I'm going to start with Kimberly Guilfoyle. You know, it's
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: funny how the rules in Trump world work, right? She's
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: no longer the ambassador to Greece. She was forced to
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: resign because she did, you know, she used her access
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: to get, you know, some outsider to try to shake
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: down for money, for access, et cetera. Right. The Wall
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: Street Journal reported that the allegations, you know, that Guilfoyle
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: sought to have a political donor pay off her Amex
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: bill in exchange for getting access to influential figures in
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: the Trump administration. This is not about whether this is
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: legal or not. It's icky. It's certainly unethical. Right. We
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: can have a we can have a legal argument about
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: whether it's technically illegal or not, but it's icky. It
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: looks gross. It's so gross that even Trump and Marco
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: Rubio think it's a bad public look, right? But I'm sorry.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: As I said before, I find the outrage by Trump
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: world comical, right? Look, the allegations are serious and she should,
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: you know, any person doing this should be punished. But
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: if they're, but this administration, this is the administration that
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: they're going to suddenly draw a line, a bright ethical
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: line around monetizing access to Donald Trump. Is it because
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: we're three weeks before an election and that's why you
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: care about this? Did she make the mistake of having
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: this story come out in an even numbered year? If
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: it happened in an odd numbered year, everybody would have said,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: move along now, nothing to see here. Because suddenly Donald
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Trump is outraged by what she did. But this is
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: the same Donald Trump whose political operation hosted a private
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: dinner for major holders of the president's own cryptocurrency. I'd
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: say that was about 100 times worse than anything Kimberly
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Guilfoyle tried to do. The same extended family that has
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: benefited from enormous overseas investments, including Jared Kushner's investment firm,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: receiving billions from Saudi Arabia's sovereign rail fund. The same
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: political universe in which proximity to the president has become
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: such a valuable asset that they sell access to truth
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: social Trump posts early to investors. And Kimberly Guilfoyle is
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: the one that has to go.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: What are the rules?
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: You can't monetize access to Trump if you haven't actually
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: married Donald Trump Jr. Engagement wasn't, it was, you know,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: you don't get to do this just as a fiance
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: or an ex-fiance. Or maybe you need to do it
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: on a much larger scale. $ 100, 000 is chump change, too
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: small time. Don't get caught being a petty, you know,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: being a petty grifter. Go big or go home. But
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: this is a truism throughout the Trump era. People around Trump,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: frequently end up paying a price for conduct that does
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: not produce the same consequences for Trump and his family.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: Michael Cohen went to prison in connection with Donald Trump's
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: hush money scheme. Donald Trump was convicted in a New
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: York courtroom and received an unconditional discharge. Rudy Giuliani lost
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: his law license manufacturing ridiculous allegations that Donald Trump asked
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: him to do. John Eastman was disbarred. doing the dirty
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: work of Donald Trump. Other Trump allies have faced criminal
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: convictions or guilty pleas. Meanwhile, Trump returned to the White House.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: The people who get close to Trump sometimes discover that
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: the rules apply to them in ways they don't seem
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: to apply to him. And Ms. Guilfoyle may have just
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: discovered that there's a particularly important distinction between being part
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: of the Trump family and having once been engaged to
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: somebody in the Trump family. Which brings me to another
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: interesting aspect of this story. The person announcing Guilfoyle's departure
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: was Katie Zachariah. And she's the new White House press secretary.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: She made her debut in the briefing room on Tuesday. Look,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I knew nothing of this person. I'd never heard of her.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know if this means I'm not well informed.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: I think I have a pretty good feed on the
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: right to monitor what's going on. I do sort of,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: you know, I pay attention to what Laura Loomer's up
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: to and I pay attention to what these folks are
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: up to. I'd never heard of her. of this woman.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: You know, I've probably dismissed her as just like another
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: sort of, you know, grifter that's just been grifting off
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: of the Trump movement to build a social media following. So,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: but it's pretty clear how she got the job, right?
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: Sycophantry is how you get this job. Now, her debut,
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: I think you find out what happens. You know, Donald
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Trump has ruined this position.
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: There was a time the position was designed to actually,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: you know, be a conduit to the public and the
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: press about what's the president up to? What's he doing?
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Why is he doing this? Let me find out. And,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: you know. Whether it was Ari Fleischer with Bush or
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: Mike McCurry with Clinton or Robert Gibbs with Obama, you
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: felt like Jen Psaki with Biden. You felt like, yes,
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: they were going to perform every once in a while
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: for the cameras because the cameras were on. But none
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: of them ever wanted to be seen as a liar.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: And it would bother them if they lost their credibility.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: Ari Fleischer- You know, anytime he's been accused of misleading people,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: he gets defensive about it because he doesn't want to
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: be seen as that. Like, that would bother him. It
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: bothers Mike McCurry. It bothers Robert Gibbs. That's not how Donald,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: you know, Donald Trump believes this job. Sure, lie. I mean,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: you know, this is who he is. He's P.T. Barnum.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: So I, you know, I have no, I, my, my
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: expectations for her in this job are super low, right?
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: It's if Donald Trump is happy, great. I, I guess
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: the word Scaramucci is trending with Zacharia, which isn't a
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: good sign because he lasted 11 days. And the question is,
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: was she so bad at this, right? She only took
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: a handful of questions and most of them were just
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: to the, with, with the friendly outlets, which I guess,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: you know, it's sort of like spring training, right? Don't
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: take Don't don't take a high, hard one yet. You know,
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: you don't want to face Jacob Mizorowski. You want to
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: face a bullpen catcher trying to pretend they're a pitcher.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: So. You know, who knows if she's ever gets effective
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: of this at all. I've read where she's a big
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: conspiracy theorist. I don't know why you would want a
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: conspiracy theorist in this job when, you know, and apparently
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: even Susie Wiles was blindsided by this decision. But she
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: fits the pattern of what Trump wants out of a spokesperson.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: He wants a spokesperson, frankly, to be seen more than
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: they're heard. And it appears to be the situation here.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: But it's another reminder how much the institution of the
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: White House press briefing and the White House press secretary
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: has been damaged and has deteriorated. It's on the long
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: to-do list of what's it going to take to restore
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: You know, it's the subject of my column today that
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: you can find on Substack or Newsphere. Now, a story
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: that I think is considerably more serious before we get
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: to my interview with Paul Glastris. Federal agents searched the
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Washington home of Democratic Congresswoman Ilhan Omar on Monday as
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: part of a criminal investigation. Now, the Justice Department says
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: agents executed a judicially authorized warrant. Now, Omar has denied
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: wrongdoing and says she's being politically targeted. Before I go
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: any further, I want to make something clear. I don't
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: know what the evidence the government has. And neither do
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: most people offering instant judgments about this case. I am
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: surprised that the Justice Department got a judge to sign
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: off on this search less than 30 days before an election. So, but,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe... Maybe they have some facts that can
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: obviously they have some facts that convinced a judge a
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: search warrant at this time was necessary. But I can
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: tell you. This better be good because the Justice Department
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: has sort of put their own credibility on the line here. Right.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: There had been longstanding policy, and I know Todd Blanch
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: changes longstanding policy at the Justice Department at the drop
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: of a hat now. He is not interested in the
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: rule of law. He is interested in just being the
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: president's lawyer. I can recite how he screwed this up,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: but if you're listening to me now, you heard it
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: on the last episode. But usually the Justice Department wants
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: its cases taken seriously. And if you're going to do
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: something this close to an election, you better have the goods.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Because it was 22 days before Election Day when this
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: search occurred. The Justice Department for years had operated under
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: policies and traditions designed to prevent federal law enforcement from
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: appearing to manipulate elections. And doing this this close to
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: an election is just that. You've put your thumb on
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: the scale to voters. Now, none of these were absolute
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: prohibitions on investigations. And obviously, there are circumstances where a
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: prosecutor thinks they have to act. But a normal Justice
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: Department who wants credibility with the public, who wants their
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: prosecutions taken seriously by judges, usually dot every I and
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: cross every T. Are you convinced that Todd Blanche's Justice
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Department is dotting every I and crossing every T when
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: they're targeting a member of Congress less than less than
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: a month before Election Day? And it's somebody who's regularly
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: targeted by the sitting president of the United States all
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: the time. So to say this smells is an understatement.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: It smells. She may very well have some messed up
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: immigration papers. Maybe it was her. Maybe it was her family.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: But you better have it. And you better know that
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: she did something criminal here. Because this looks like political targeting.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: This looks like abuse of the Justice Department. And here's
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: the thing. If they had no track record of abusing
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: their power like this, they'd get a little bit more
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt. But have they earned the benefit
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: of the doubt? Who made this decision? Who signed off
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: on it? And we're not seeing anything. The only thing
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: the Justice Department is trying to do is sue the
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: news media these days, right? Now the Justice Department decided
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: to open an antitrust investigation, conveniently, less than a month
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: before Election Day involving the television networks over the fact
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: that the White House, that the TV networks decided to
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: suspend pool coverage because Donald Trump banned members of the pool,
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: individual members of the pool from covering the president. I
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: was a part of that pool. It's contractual obligation, number one.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: But number two, if you choose not to cover something,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: that's part of your First Amendment right too. He has
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: no right to coverage, just like he claims we have
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: no right to be physically in his presence to cover him.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: So it is not a serious investigation. It is simply
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: the Justice Department being weaponized to create the illusion that
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: somehow Donald Trump is a target by the media is
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: coming to get him, right? Oh, the media is coming
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: to get him. I will just say, I don't know
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: what I would take seriously out of this Justice Department,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: but anything that targets somebody who's regularly a punching bag
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: for Donald Trump, you have to be skeptical about whether
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: they even have the goods. And the fact that they
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: violated a norm inside of 30 days of an election
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: like this, Um, and yet they don't really, they don't,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: if they had it, I think they would tell us,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: you know, this is one of those things they're, they're not,
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: they're not saving. If they had the goods on her,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: we'd all have the information. They'd be screaming it from
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: the rooftops because why would you sit on it? Right.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: If you have something, you wouldn't sit on it. So
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: they're just trying to create the, you know, I don't
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: think they care whether they actually have a case. I
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: think it's pretty clear that just having the search of
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: Elon Omar as a headline three weeks before the election
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: is the feature, not the bug. They don't care if
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: they have a prosecutable case. I think if they had
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: a prosecutable case, we'd already know. And they don't have
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: a prosecutable case. All right, one more thing before I go.
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: I want to shift gears for a moment because there's
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: another story that I think could have consequences well beyond
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: this election. So Elon Musk is now decided to spend
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: another $ 276 million supporting Republican groups in his own super PAC.
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: And that's just since July. Okay. $ 276 million just in
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: the last 90 days. He sent $ 158 million alone to
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: the Senate Leadership Fund, which is the Senate Republican super PAC.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: In fact, that single contribution was larger than the amount
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: the Democratic super PAC raised from all of its donors
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: during the quarter. Now, look, we've had extraordinarily wealthy political
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: donors before. George Soros, a big one for the Democrats.
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: We've had billionaires who've spent enormous sums trying to influence elections.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: But what's striking to me about Musk is how deliberate
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: and public he's being about his involvement. He's not simply
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: writing checks to candidates he likes. He's becoming one of
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: the most identifiable financial backers of the Republican Party, and
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: specifically of the effort to preserve Republican control of Congress.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: I think it's a giant mistake. If you're a shareholder
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: in any of Elon Musk's business, his decision to be
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: a partisan like this is not in the best interest
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: of these companies. He is not abiding by the fiduciary responsibility.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: He is hurting the bottom line of these companies. I'm
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: not saying the money's not going to have impact. It could.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of ads that $ 276 million can buy.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: But Musk is making himself personally responsible, at least in
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: the public's mind, for the political project he's financing. And
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: that means he's going to be a target. And I
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: think he's going to regret being a target. He already
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: bought Twitter simply to do that. So he wants to
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: control the information ecosystem. He wants to financially be the
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: single most important backer of one political party. This is
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: a concentration of power that no party and no individual
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: American should be comfortable with. But more importantly, if you're
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: a shareholder in his publicly traded company, and if you're
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: a business leader and you're somebody who wants to work
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: with Tesla or SpaceX or XAI, if you're a local
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: government considering a project involving one of Musk's companies, you
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: now have to think about the political implications of that relationship.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: He is making decisions. And I guess you could say, well,
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: he's not hiding who he is. Okay, maybe. But I
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: don't think Musk fully appreciates this. And It's the way
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: he goes about it, right? You know, there's plenty of
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: donors that pick a side and stick to that side.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: But are you doing it with malevolence or benevolence? And
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: he's clearly doing it with malevolence. And it only increases
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: interest in finding ways to prove he's doing something wrong,
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: doing something illegal, doing something over the top. But if anything,
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: he's got just way.
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: He himself may have been personally responsible for sort of
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: helping to try to mainstream this crazy rumor about Tallarico
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: that when he was sick with the flu that he
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: was somehow in some unnamed mental facility. And this is
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: what makes him so dangerous, right? And we've just seen
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: this over and over again. So I just think Musk
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: has made a huge mistake and made his companies more
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: vulnerable to scrutiny. made his companies more vulnerable to businesses
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: not wanting to partner with him, right? The more partisan
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: and polarizing you are, the more uncomfortable people are going
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: to be to hang out, especially when the winds shift.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: And the winds have shifted quite a bit. I understand
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: Musk looking at the situation and going, boy, everybody hates
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: tech except Donald Trump, so I guess I will support him.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: That's the way you become a supervillain. It's not the
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: way you figure out how to work in tandem with government. And,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: you know, the guy wants to get up in space.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: Democrats are going to have a lot to say about
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: the funding of those programs as well. So it just
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: feels like both a strategic mistake by him. I think
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: it's a, the fact that he already has an outsized
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: influence on our media ecosystem with what he does with X,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: and he does this, this is, you know, He's accumulated–
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: it's pretty clear. He's accumulated way too much power. The
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: question is how do you check it in a way
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: that's small d democratic and still protects his rights as well?
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: And I think that's a little bit of a challenge.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: But there are ownership rules. If you're going to be
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: a donor of that size, if you're going to be
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: a government contractor, right, he's basically looking for government. He's
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: a massive government contractor when it comes to a space program. So–
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: I don't see how his money is anything other than
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: a bribe, a direct bribe like this. So whether it's
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: government contractors being barred from giving money, there's a lot
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: of things that need to be done. But this is
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: one of those where I know I'm going to sound
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: to some like Bernie Sanders here, right? The oligarchy. But
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: I'm a Teddy Roosevelt guy, and it's about concentrations of
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: wealth and power. And capitalism doesn't work with concentrations of wealth.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: and democracy doesn't work with concentration of power. And Elon
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Musk is, is, um, essentially anti-capitalist. He's anti-free market. And
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: it turns out he's, he's anti small D democratic. And
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: it's a, it's a, it's a troubling, and there's no
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: easy solution to this. He's like a, a, a rogue actor.
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: He's like a, he's like a, a, one of these
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: AI agents that's escaped and you don't quite know what
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: to do. Um, Because there's a lot of people afraid
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: of figuring out how to rein him in. But I
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: think this is a, you know, I can tell you this.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: I don't think voters are going to take kindly to
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: the billionaires trying to prop up political parties. And I
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: do think careful of the company you keep on this
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: if you're somebody running for office. All right, it's time
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: for my top five list. And like I did last week,
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: since we're getting so close to election day, the map's
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: gotten bigger. And if I'm going to do the top
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: five governor's races most likely to flip, I'm better off
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: doing the top 10 because frankly, you know, the competitive,
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: the competitive, the Competitive nature of governor's races is through
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: the roof right now. I'd say, right, there's 36 that
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: are up. I'd say we're right at about half of
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: them are going to be decided, perhaps decided by five
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: points or less, which shows you what kind of competitive
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: environment it is. But it brings me to the central
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: question I was asking at the opening of this podcast
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: in my opening monologue on the Wednesday portion of the podcast,
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: which is just how large is this wave going to be,
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: if it's a blue wave or red undertow, however you
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: want to do it. If this is a fairly conventional
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: midterm in which the president's party loses ground, or are
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: we watching something bigger and more consequential? And I've come
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: to the conclusion that the answer is not just from
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: the House and the Senate, but it comes from governor's races,
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: because there are several states where Democrats are competing for
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: governorships in places that voted decisively for Donald Trump two
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: years ago, right? And there are other states where Republicans
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: are trying to take advantage of local circumstances that may
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: have very little to do with the national environment. So
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: it's an intriguing list I have here. I have a
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: few Democratic-held seats that are in my top 10 of flips.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: But there's some really red states that have made the
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: top 10 as well. So I'm ranking the 10 governorships
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: that I think is in order of most likely to flip,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: the least likely to flip. They're all, if you've made
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: this top 10, you're in play, pure and simple. Now,
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: there's two states not on my list. Arizona and Michigan.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: It's not that these are swing states, but the battleground states,
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: and these are two-week Republican nominees. Republicans have already pulled
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: their money from Michigan on the governor's race. And while
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Turning Point is throwing a bunch of money into Andy
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: Biggs in Arizona, the word is out that he's a
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: MAGA guy. And MAGA people don't win statewide in Arizona
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: these days. It's just been a... I know Katie Hobbs
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: says she needs more money And the DGA is probably,
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: you know, they can't afford to lose it. But the
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: amount of money they're spending there probably is more than necessary.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: But I do think if this is an election about
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump, the Democrats flip the House and the Senate.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: If this is an election about Republican governance and Donald Trump,
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: will they flip the House and the Senate? And there's
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Democratic governors in Texas, Ohio, and Iowa. And in fact,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: I look at those three in particular. Okay? I look
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: at those three in particular. Because Republican governance is what's
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: on the ballot, particularly in Texas. And I've said, I
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: think if Texas goes Democratic in the governor's race, this
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: is a repudiation of Republican governors, and it's certainly a
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: repudiation of the voucher movement. And funding of public education
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: and the funding of public health are sort of two
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: of the issues that are bothering voters the most of
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: their governors. And you could see Democrats potentially being able
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: to take advantage of that. All right. So without further ado,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: let me do my top 10 list. So number one,
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: most likely to flip, Iowa. In fact, for me, it's
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: a new number one. I've had Kansas won for the
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: longest time. I have Iowa in the one spot. You know,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: Rob's saying His lead seems to be durable. I don't
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: remember the last poll I've seen of Rob Sand leading
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: by less than five points. The curiosity to me is,
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: does he have a ceiling? What's the ceiling? Is it 52, 53?
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: Or can he get it closer to 55? If he
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: can get it closer to 55, that might be enough
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: to pull Turek over the finish line. But I do
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: think Turek... in the Senate race really needs Rob Sandu
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: to get close to the all-time record for Democratic performance
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: in an Iowa governor's race, which goes back to the
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: 60s when they had a candidate hit 55%. No Democrat
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: in the modern since then who's won a governor's race
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: in Iowa has ever gotten that much of the vote.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: That possibility is somewhat distinct there. And if he gets
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: to 55, he probably can sweep, might be able to
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: sweep the statewide offices. AG, Treasury, Secretary of State, you know,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: or other statewide races in Iowa. So we should, so
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: Iowa's one. Number two, Kansas, as you know, they have
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: literally been on a pendulum every eight years. They switch parties.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: We've had eight years of a Democratic governor. She's term limited.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: Her chosen successor lost the primary election. So, look, it's
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: going to be it's a it's a close race. I
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: think the Republican candidates probably slightly to the right of
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: where the state is. Democratic candidates probably slightly left to
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: where the state is. I'm I think you have to
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: assume at this case that especially for, you know, I'm
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: bullish on Kansas Senate because I'm bearish on Kansas Gov
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: for Democrats and I'm bullish on Iowa Gov. For Democrats,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: because I'm bearish for Iowa Senate, I think you're going
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: to have some voters that are like, look, I'm not
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: voting for two Democrats. I'm only voting for one. And
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: I think Hamilton is, you know, I think Marshall's unlikable
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: enough and Hamilton's likable enough to be the comfortable lone Democrat.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: And then there's that voter that might pull the R
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: level on the gubernatorial side, too. That's my sense. But,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: you know, I do think Kansas is going to be
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: quite close, but I think advantage R. Then the rest
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: of these races are all very, very close. I think
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: both Iowa and Kansas, you would say, distinctly leans to
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: the party to flip, leaning Democratic on the Iowa side,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: leaning Republican on the Kansas side. Number three on my
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: list is Ohio. Amy Acton has probably been ahead in
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: more polls than Ramaswamy has. I certainly think there's a
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: high floor for Republicans in Ohio. So this is if
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: she wins, it's going to be really, really close. This
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: isn't going to be you know, I think she's got
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: a ceiling of 51 or 52, period. But I do think,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: you know, it's possible third party candidates like she could
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: end up winning by four or five because there's a
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: third party vote that goes down there. And and For
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: the next episode, I'm going to dig into the third
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: party votes, by the way. I think I promised that
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: last one that's coming for my Thursday podcast. Just the
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: states where I think that the third party could be
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: significant on either side. We've seen where Republicans are spending
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: some money on a minor party candidate in the Senate race,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: hoping to dilute votes for Sherrod Brown. Number four on
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: the list is Alaska, the right choice voting. It does
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: appear that the Democrats have the upper hand here. Man,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: It has been a wild and wacky race for governor.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to pretend that I know the intricate
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: details of this wackiness, but it does feel as if
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: the Democratic candidate has the upper hand here. And, you know,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: it's been a good 20 years since Democrats have held
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: that governor's mansion. Tony Knowles, I believe, was the last
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: Democratic governor of the state of Alaska. They tried to
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: get him to translate that to the Senate. It didn't happen.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: But that's... Alaska is looking fairly optimistic there. And number
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: five on my list is Texas. I've spent a lot
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: of time on Gina Enos' campaign. It does feel as
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: if that Abbott's financial advantage has stopped the bleeding. We've
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: seen some– there's been slight improvement for Abbott in the
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: most recent Santa poll, New York Times Santa poll. But
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: it's neck and neck. And he's running for a fourth term.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: I find it hard to believe that much of the
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: undecided vote is going to go to the incumbent. I
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: know it's Texas. But I think if you're not with
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: them now, I don't know what more is going to
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: convince you to do it. I really don't. But we'll see.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: It could be just a numbers game there, right? There's
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: just not enough Democrats yet, not enough independents yet to
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: cross the aisle. But I have Texas five. Six, I
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: have Georgia. Some might argue that Georgia should go ahead here.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: The reason I have a slightly more optimism about Hinojosa
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: winning than I do Keisha Lance Bottoms is she's up
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: against You know, I think the Republican nominee, Rick Jackson,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: has got enough distance from Trump and an enormous amount
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: of money himself that has made him a better bet, right,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: than Abbott. Abbott's having to defend, right, where Jackson's an outsider.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: So I think this is, you know, I think had
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: literally Republicans ended up with any other nominee than him,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: I think Keisha Lance Bottoms would be the favorite. She
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: still could end up winning. And I think if Ossoff
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: does have the Oval Office in his sights for 28,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: he should be pulling out all the stops to do
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: whatever it takes to help Keisha Lance Bottoms. Because getting
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: a governorship in a presidential battleground seat is a BFD,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: and that's a pretty good shit. And he would get
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: a lot of credit for this. Number seven on my
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: list is Nevada. Lombardo fits my description of who are
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: the Republicans that are more likely to survive an environment
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: like this. People who are not considered very Trumpy. Joe
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: Lombardo is not considered very Trumpy, but he's a Republican
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: in a swing state in a bad year to be
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: a Republican. If he loses, it's simply that. I don't
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: think he's committed a fireable offense, but the Democrats have
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: a reasonable nominee in the sitting AG and Aaron Ford.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: They're spending an enormous amount of money. outside groups are in,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: you know, this feels like if this is a generic
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: party vote, Lombardo might lose. If Lombardo can make this
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: a choice and about, you know, and he can show
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit, remind people that he's a little bit
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: different from Trump and he's been trying, he's got Democrats
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: on air, endorsement ads and stuff like that. But I
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: put him on this list because I think the environment's
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: just deteriorated around him and he just may not be
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: able to survive the environment. Oregon. Boy, Republicans have been
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: on the verge of winning the Oregon governor's mansion, it
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: seems like, this entire century. Democrats keep electing unpopular governors.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: And the unpopular governors have somehow gotten reelected a couple
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: of times, simply because there was a divide. Like last cycle,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: there was an independent, and there was a divide. And
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: that's how Tina Kotek was able to win the first time.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: There isn't a third party candidate this time. The question
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: is whether the R, is it a scarlet R for
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: Christine Drazen? Or can she prove that she's an independent governor,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: even if she's on the Republican ballot line? I can
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: tell you this, if she were running as an I,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: I think she'd be the favorite in this race. The
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: only thing that keeps Kotech in the governor's mansion is
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: this national political environment. Number nine on my list is Wisconsin.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: I think that David Crowley has stabilized this race. Democrats
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: are pouring enough money in it. I think in a
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: battleground state in this environment, advantage Democrats, whether it's Michigan governor,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: whether it's Wisconsin governor, and you just have to have
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: an unusual Republican on the other side to prevent that.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: That's what we see in Nevada. That's what we see
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: in Georgia. It's not what I see in Wisconsin. I
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: don't think Tom Tiffany is unique enough to carve out
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: his own identity to overcome what I think is just
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: an environment that is not overcomable for Republicans right now
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: in the Midwest. We'll see. We've underestimated Wisconsin Republicans before,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: but is Tom Tiffany Ron Johnson? I'm not so sure.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: And then coming in at 10 is Florida. As you know,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: I'm skeptical. I think that it's interesting. My man, Uncle Luke,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: Luther Campbell, former lead of Two Live Crew, sort of
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: a rap group of my era, of my youth, if
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: you will, huge Hurricane supporter. He ran for Congress himself.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: He's got a pretty significant following down in South Florida.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: He had Byron Donalds on his Twitter podcast, and he's
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: going to have David Jolly next week. This battle for
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: the black vote in Florida is real. Donalds is engaging
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: in it. Look, it's possible Donalds is going to underperform
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: in the northern part of the state, but if he
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: can counter that by overperforming in African-American communities, it might
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: be the difference between him winning and losing. The thing
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: Jolly has going for him is the surprise victory by
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: Angie Nixon in the Senate race. And she has been
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: kind of pushing back. She is campaigning heavily in African-American communities.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: And she's been trying to push back on those that
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: are sort of Donald's curious in there. But can I
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: just say one thing about Florida governor, by the way?
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: is that no matter what happens, I think we're going to,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: no matter who wins, Jolly or Donald's, that we're going
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: to have a, we're not going to have an awkward,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: the last 16 years of governors, and even you throw
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: in Charlie Chris 20, it's like, can I just have
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: a normie behaving individual, like that sort of lives a
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: normal life, that isn't like an introvert or a little
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: bit awkward with people, Right. Like neither Rick Scott or
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: DeSantis has ever seemed like a conventional politician. And maybe
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: that was a strength for them at times. But they're
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: kind of you know, they they don't look comfortable when
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: surrounded by people. Both Jolly and Donalds are a bit
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: more what I would call conventional politicians. And I say
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: that not as an attack. I just think that you're
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: just going to have some normal human behavior that is
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: not unpredictable in the governor's mansion, regardless of who wins
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: this governor's race. And considering, like I said, I'm No,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: Governor DeSantis is a little. I know Governor Scott better.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: There's Senator Scott. You know, they're not natural politicians. David
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: Jolly and Byron Donalds are more natural politicians. So maybe
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: that's the most generous way I can describe that. All right,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: it's question time. Let me start with Chris. Say Chuck,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: love the pod.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: M-I-Z.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: Are you doing it for Milwaukee or are you doing
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: it for Mizzou? You're doing it for Mizzou. That's all right. Cal,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: she still has Ann Wagner at 75 percent of Missouri, too,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: even though polling under the old map looks pretty even.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: So I threw a little cash on Fred Wellman for
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: the potential payout if Wellman pulls off the upset. But
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: Missouri Republicans challenged the results under the old map. What
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: happens to my trade, Chris? That's a great question. I
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: got to think that. These are the rules and regulations
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: I need to get more familiar with. I'm going to
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: do a little research on this. I think it's an
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: important question that I need to be able to answer cleaner.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: And I will confess that I don't know the full
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: answer because I've wondered this myself. Do you wait till
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: the elections are certified, especially if you're doing some, I
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: think there's some trades you can make that have to
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: do with margin of victory or number of Senate seats. Well, okay,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: what if there's a party switch? How does that get
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: factored in? When is the cutoff date, right? I think
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: this has always to me been the challenge of including
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: election results in markets like this because arguably they're not
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: certified until the state certifies them, hard stop, right? Well,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: that can sometimes take three weeks I have a feeling
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: that that's not how long they plan to keep your money. So, look,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: I am– it's a great question. My– you know, the–
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: I only would– I could tell you what happens when
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: sporting events get postponed or moved because of weather or
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: postponed or canceled if we've had like a health issue
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: like during COVID is– usually there's automatic refund. Everybody just
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: gets their money back. And there's no, it's as if
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: it didn't happen. That's how I would be doing business.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: So I say it out loud, my friends at CalShield
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: probably hear me, but on this, I gotta think that that's,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: if somehow the election gets thrown out, which I think
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: is very possible because of this weird situation we're in
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: in Missouri, I think the most likely thing they would
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: do is just return everybody's money. Just make everybody whole.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: Nobody wins. Nobody loses. Everybody just gets– it's as if
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: it's just a full-on reset, which to me is the
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: right thing to do. Henry in New Orleans comes in.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: He goes, hey, Chuck, after listening to the podcast discussion
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: on Pete Hegseth this morning, I have one question. If
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: Trump doesn't fire Hegseth after the election and Thomas Massey
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: succeeds in getting the House to impeach him, what incentive
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: or obligation would the Senate have to convict him and
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: potentially bar him from holding public office again? And if
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: Hegseth resigns before a Senate trial, could the Senate still
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: proceed or would resignation effectively allow him to avoid that consequence?
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: Thanks and regards, Henry in New Orleans. Well, no. I mean,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: if the House successfully impeaches, the Senate has to have
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: a trial and it doesn't matter whether they choose to
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: stay in office or not. Now, maybe they just decide
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: not to, you know, that, but it's up to the,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: you know, the Senate can work its will and it
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: makes its decision. The magic number 67. Do you have
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: 67 votes to bar Pete Hagseth from ever holding any
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: federal office again? I don't know. If it's 54 seats
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: that Democrats win, It's still 47. And by the way,
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: when would the Senate trial be held? Is it held
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: before January 3rd with the old Senate or the new Senate?
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: I don't think the first order of business for the
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: new Senate, do they want to make a Senate trial
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: of Eggstaff? And yet, so it's, here's the thing. I'm
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: convinced that if the election goes bad enough for Republicans,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: that Eggstaff could, you might have plenty of House Republicans
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: that decide That's it. I'm out. Maybe they read the
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: tea leaves, although this administration rarely reads tea leaves, and
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: Higgseth resigns. And maybe it's over the decision to try
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: to live stream the execution, which clearly Trump has suddenly
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: gotten cold feet about. But no, in theory, if you've
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: been impeached, resignation isn't supposed to, doesn't necessarily, you know,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: they can choose to keep going with the trial, but
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: one would argue what's you know, unless you really want
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: to bar him from that, but you better have the
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: 67 votes. And I don't, it's hard to imagine if
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: the 67 votes, but I think impeachment itself was, is
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: the indictment. And if he's indicted, if you're Trump, I
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: think you push them out immediately and get your, get
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: the old Senate to confirm a new defense secretary. Don't,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: don't test getting a defense secretary out of a democratic
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: controlled Senate. Brian from Virginia's 10th District. It's loud and
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: counting these days. You often talk about how four or
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: five political parties are essentially squeezed into our two major parties,
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: creating tension between their competing coalitions. Yet the UK and
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: Canada also used first-past-the-post elections and still managed to elect
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: multiple parties to parliament, while even independents rarely win seats
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: in the US House. Why is the US such an
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: outlier when it comes to third-party representation? Is it our
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: presidential system or is it something else at play? It's
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: ballot access, right? It's ballot access. If every party had
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: equal access to the ballot, equal– and independents had equal
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: access across the board, you'd have a different story. But
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: it's ballot– that's where– and that's hard– voters haven't been
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: given the choice of how they would handle multiple parties
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: in a lot of states.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: But that's the biggest impediment to this is the duopoly
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: in a lot of states makes creates major party and
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: minor party status and minor party needs more petition signatures
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: than major party. I mean, it is literally rigged so
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: that the the major parties don't have to do as
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: much small the democracy to get on the ballot as
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: minor parties or independent candidates do. And I think, frankly,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: all of that's unconstitutional. It's not equal access to the ballot.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: It's not equal treatment on this. And, you know, equal
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: protection seems like it should be a pretty good argument
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: on this one. But I think that's the biggest issue
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: is simply access to the ballot. If access were easier,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: I do think you'd get more diversity in itself. But look,
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: I think our congressional districts are too big. If you
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: had smaller congressional districts, you'd likely have this issue. There's
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: a number of ways we could do this, but as
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: much as I want to see a multi-party system, and
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: I think more factions, I'm with James Madison on this one,
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: more factions are better than fewer factions. We have to
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: change the rules of getting on the ballot before this
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: can work. You can't just suddenly snap your fingers and
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: hope new parties show up. You actually have to, it's
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of laws in a lot of states
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: that have to change in order to get equal access
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: to the ballot. But these are where these small groups
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: are making lawsuits and all this stuff. I mean, just
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: it is absurd what independent candidates and minor parties have
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: to do in some states to get on the ballot.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: And all of it seems to me should be unconstitutional.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: All right, Kevin from Tennessee's 6th Congressional District, previously the
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: 5th and the 7th. Yeah, they do have a new map.
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: While I'm not overly optimistic, I've been thinking about how
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: Congress could return to regular order if this election serves
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: as a wake-up call for Republicans. Could presidential emergency powers
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: be reformed so that rather than remaining in effect unless
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: Congress overrides them, they automatically expire after a short period?
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: Say 15 days unless Congress explicitly proves it. Kevin, they
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: have this power right now. They could decide they've gone
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: out of their way to not force– to not do
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: more votes on this stuff. They don't want the responsibility, right?
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: This has been leadership decisions, whether the leadership, you know,
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: whatever the president's party is, who's run the House, has
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: not wanted to have the responsibility of dealing with these things. And,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: you know, we haven't had enough, you know, I do
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: think you'll see Democrats pound their chest now when there's
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: a Republican in the White House. The question is, Are
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: they going to be this willing to revoke emergency power
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: when somebody of their own party is in the White House?
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: All of this would be better done in a bipartisan basis.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: And all of this, absolutely, right? It shouldn't even be
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: 90 days. It should be 15 days, should be 30 days.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: All of our emergency powers should be real emergencies and
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: emergencies are measured in weeks, not months or years, right?
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: I don't think there should be any emergency from 1978
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: that you're legally able to use. It just shouldn't be.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: It should expire at least by the end of that
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: Congress so that a new Congress actually has to proactively
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: pass a new emergency power in order to let an executive–
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: the executive branch have some authority, whether it's trade authority
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: or whatever. But this is what's so frustrating is that
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: Congress has this power right now, Kevin. It's a choice.
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: And it has been– the partisan– the decision– By Newt
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: Gingrich and then Nancy Pelosi did not change the way
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: to basically to not let the House, you know, to
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: sort of narrow the leadership of the House to the
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: leaders themselves, to pull back power from committee chairs, pull
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: back power from individual members. That was what Newt Gingrich
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: decided to have in order to have party discipline, in
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: order to partisanize things. Nancy Pelosi went right along with
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: it when she took over Congress in 2007. She could
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: have gone back to the older way of doing things.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: Tip O'Neill and Tom Foley did things. It's a choice.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: And Hakeem Jeffries is going to have a choice if
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: he has a chance to do this. And I'll be
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: curious to see what choice he makes. Last question for
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: this episode. Josh in Anderson, South Carolina. South Carolina's third district.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: Where Clemson fans are still smarting from that loss to
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: my beloved Miami Hurricanes. I appreciate you say they're smarting.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: Hey, man.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: We just did for you. What you guys successfully did
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: for Miami, you show us how far you have to go. And,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: you know, the pounding Clemson gave Miami in a ACC
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: title game a few years back, at the Hard Rock
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: a few years back, sobered up Miami fans and realizing
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: we weren't doing enough. We didn't have enough. We're just trying.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: We were just here to help. Just know the blowout.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: We were here to help. Thursday's podcast, you mentioned Annie
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: Andrews fundraising as a hurdle to defeating Darlene Graham. But
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: what about straight ticket voting? How do pollsters account for it?
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: And how can a challenger overcome that disadvantage in a
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: state like South Carolina? I'd also love to hear your
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: thoughts on how other states have managed to repeal straight
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: ticket voting. Keep up the great work. Your podcast is
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: appointment listening to me. Well, I appreciate you saying that.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: You know, what's funny about straight ticket voting is it
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: used to be a phenomenon of Democratic machines of the
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: Northeast and in some cities in the Midwest. And then
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: you had a lot of Republican efforts in the 80s
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: and 90s to get rid of straight ticket voting up
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: and down because they thought it was preventing them. And then,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: of course, they get majorities and they get control and
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: they decide they want straight ticket voting. You know, straight
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: ticket voting is not popular. Voters may behave as partisans,
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: but they don't like to be treated as partisans. And
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: there's a distinction. So the case against straight ticket voting
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: is easy to make. And nobody wants to cast a
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: ballot for it. And if it comes up, let's institute
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: straight ticket voting. Voters want to believe they have a choice. Now,
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: do voters end up mostly straight ticket voting? Yeah. I
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: think about 80% of voters do that. But The voter
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: wants to decide to do that. So, yeah, I think
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: straight ticket voting is a tool of authoritarianism to be
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: straightforward about it. I think it's a horrendous idea. And
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: it is always suggested by entities in power who are
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: afraid of losing power. And we don't live in a
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: parliamentary system. Maybe if we did, you could make a
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: better case for it. But to me, there is not
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: a case anybody can make to me that this is
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: a small d democratic idea. Straight ticket voting. Voter could
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: do what they want. But to have a place where
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: literally you bubble once and the whole thing goes or
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: you pull down. And I'm surprised there are any places
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: left that allow it. Because again, no voter, no matter
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: how partisan they are, wants to admit that they would
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: prefer straight ticket voting. Because we're all independent thinkers. And
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: we'll always tell you we're independent thinkers. All right. With that,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: as always, I appreciate all of the emails. We'd love
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: more of them. Keep them coming. I do my best
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: to get through more of them. But that's why I
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: do five or six with every episode. I don't want
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: to just do the mailbag episode for you, right? I
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: know those are always fun, but I think spacing it
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: out so that we're always in a constant conversation. And
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: what I love about the questions, you allow me to
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: touch some races that sometimes I wish I'd touched sooner,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: but you guys are smart enough to bring it up
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: in questions. And so that I appreciate. So with that,
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: I'll see you in 24 hours. Thanks for listening. Until
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: we upload again.