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Transcript

Felix Prehn - Last Chance: Why I’m Buying the Tech Rally! + Stock Market News 10 June 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey, look at this here and welcome to this pre-market live stream, live to YouTube and X today, which is lovely, and I want to walk you through in the next couple of minutes.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: I want to empower you, I want to equip you with opportunities.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: So I'll tell you first why I love big and beautiful opportunity number one.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you why I'm a little bit lukewarm on a very popular opportunity number two that's being banded around by a lot of people.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: And while I'm really hot about opportunity number three, I'll tell you what they are in a second.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: And I'll also tell you the key reasons why, well, this rally's got legs and why the main headwind will actually turn into support.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: The retail army is all in on the one stock and we'll do a nice big Q&A.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: We'll look at all your favorite stocks and everything else.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: That's about the plan.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: So I'll share my screen with you.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Winston, of course, is with us in all his might there.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: He is thinking deeply about the next breakouts.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Aren't you, winston?
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: You thinking about breakouts?
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Or maybe cucumbers?
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Probably the latter.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: So you can see it on the screen.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: This is what we're going to run through here.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: If you think knowing and understanding this would give you some value, put a V in the chat.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: So I know that you're alive and not a bot and that this is actually useful for you.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: So, opportunity one, two, three, rally, rally, rally, rally, rally.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: More reasons to be bullish and what everybody's buying and maybe why you want to think about that too.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: So appreciating all the Vs there, my friends.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: So let's jump straight into it, and I think I'm going to have to hide Winston, aren't I?
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: He's sleeping very sweetly here.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Semiconductors we are so excited about semiconductors In fact, I'm going to put out a full length video on semiconductor stocks that you have never heard of today, because there are some big opportunities there.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Beyond NVIDIA and everybody else that everyone is always talking about, amd and so on, there's some other little guys that potentially have a lot more upside.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through that.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Check out the videos coming out later today.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: If you're not already subscribed, you know what to do.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: But yeah, this here is the SMH, which is a semiconductor ETF, one of the big ones, and we are up pre-market.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: We're basically taking out the previous highs and a few more dollars and we will take out all the highs, basically, and we will have liftoff.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm excited about.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: That's a big one to watch.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Happy to walk you through some of those stocks and ask me about it.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Now, this here, though, is a little bit more precarious.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: These are small caps, right?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Iwm or the Russell 2000.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: And why am I cautious about that?
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Because, when I look at some of the reasons for the catalyst, say the big tax breaks.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Who are the big tax breaks for?
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Well, the big companies, not the little ones, largely.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: And interest rates are still high.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Who pays high interest rates?
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: The small companies.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: What about the big companies?
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: They can just borrow from you and me, they can just issue shares or sell bonds or something.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: It's an unfair world, and the little guys get hit hard.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: So, yes, it looks kind of textbook bullish, but there is a warning here, that purple line I'm pointing to, which is the 150-day moving average line.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: We're still below it, so I'd be a little cautious still on this one.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: But there's a lot of people, like Tom Lee and so on, who've been screaming small caps for the last year or so, and we still haven't seen it.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: So proof will be in the pudding when we get served the actual pudding.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: It is potentially, though and I must admit this, this is something why I'm watching this.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Actually it is an inverse head and shoulder and we have broken out above the shoulder, so that should make us textbook kind of bullish.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying I'm a bit cautious on the whole sector, but I might well be wrong and I'm always happy to be wrong.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: And people always say you're always changing your mind, you're flip-flopping all the time, and yeah, I think there's a Charlie Munger quote If you don't change your mind a lot, you're probably a tool, something like that.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: But you get the idea.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Yes, we change our mind all the time.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: That's how we make money.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Because the market changes, direction changes, money moves from one sector to the other.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: We follow the money.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Very, very simple no conviction, no belief in particular stocks, no falling in love with CEOs or any of that story nonsense that people suffer with when the stock.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Look at some companies with great CEOs and great stories, like SoFi or Tesla, right, and they're suffering.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Nvidia suffered for a long time.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Amd has been suffering for ages.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: There's just no purpose in suffering when you could be making money instead.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: And if you don't believe any of that, well, have a look at our picks from last week.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: These are picks based on our rules, right, simply based on our rules.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: And if you look at the performance for the week rules and if you look at the performance for the week that's the column here you see we've done quite nicely right, very nicely in fact.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: So anybody who bought this would have made a lot of money, simply based on our rules.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Now, did we have some losers?
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we did.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: You see down here, but you see how small those numbers are.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: And what about the biggest loser, 25% down?
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: We never actually bought.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: That Didn't trigger our rules.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure if we bought TOI.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: I think not.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: So anyway.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: But even if we had bought those which we didn't, because we have better rules than that all the losses would have been easily paid by probably our second best performer, which means all the other things are just pure gains, pure profit.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn to how you actually pick those things and I'm not selling you anything at all here, I'm just giving you free advice.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Well, free education, never advice.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I should correct myself.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: You can get that if you go where you go to feedexperienceorg slash get free.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: What do you need to make that work for you?
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: 15 minutes and a pen and a piece of paper, because you will not remember it otherwise, because it is actually pretty packed full of information.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: But there are only three rules.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Wall Street's been using them for decades.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Retail investors still FOMO, and that's why we generally are a losing, miserable, impoverished crowd, whereas the Wall Street guys are well, they're wearing nice suits, they've got nice cars, they've got nice houses, they've got nice boats, they're smiling and they're retiring very, very young.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: So if you want to join that crowd, come and learn.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: That's what I'd say.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: That's the only way you're going to get there.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Now back to the IWO, back to the small caps.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: And does that make some sense to you what I just said?
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: By the way, put a one in the chat.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: If that made some sense to you.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: That, why to?
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Following the same system that Wall Street uses is actually the only logical approach and everything else is just guesswork and misery and a waste of life.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: The CTAs, which are algo funds, so they're computers, basically that have been programmed by humans.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Still they are short the Russell right now and Goldman Sachs, the big investment bank there, just got done putting my stops for the week.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: So I did the same thing this morning.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I looked at them and I found three stocks.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I didn't have stops, which I obviously missed.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So it's always good to do a double check every once in a while.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: And that's pretty much everything I did.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: It took me about 10 minutes, 15 minutes maybe, but yes, small caps are going to have two and a half billion dollars in buys over the next weeks from computers and about 5 billion over the next month, so that could be supportive.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: That could be enough to bring IWM out of the doghouse the literal doghouse, right, winston, exactly.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: So I might well be wrong on that, but I'm just saying I'm a little cautious on that one here.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: But here's the link again phoenix friends at oxlash, get free.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I've pinned it to the chat as well for anybody who, uh, can't type phoenix friends at oxlash, get free.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: But there is another reason why I am bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: So this is the NASDAQ seasonality and of course it goes up in a straight line.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Why do I say of course?
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Because the market on average for the NASDAQ goes up right On average over the years.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: But we see a particular growth spurt when we go into the summer.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: So June, july, particularly July, tends to give us a very, very nice rally.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So we are here there and therefore we should be looking at a pretty nice sort of seasonality push happening there.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: It doesn't have to happen exactly like that, obviously, but that is the average.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So we are only halfway through the year and most of the gains historically.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: So, historically, first half of the year we make about 6%, second half of the year we make 12%.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: And I think if you look at the tax breaks coming in and perhaps some policy benefits, deregulation and some of the investment starting to flow and so on, and perhaps more visibility in what the Fed is going to do at some point they're going to have to cut rates I think all of that will give us a very, very, very nice second half to the year.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Don't you think so, winston?
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Winston, what do you think?
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Any thoughts Blink if you think it's going to be a good second half of the year, that was more than a blink.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So I think, therefore, that we should put all of our money on the Nasdaq, don't you think?
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Always follow a golden retriever for investment decisions.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: That seems to be the golden rule for me.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: But here's another one.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Some people think oh, but the rally has gone so far, it can't go any higher.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: I'm going to sell everything.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I'm sitting in cash.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: It's all under the mattress, all that sort of thing.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Let me give you one number, literally just one number, to walk you off that ledge of not being invested.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: There is a little tracker which tracks the percentage of S&P stocks that are at a new one-year high, 52-week high.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: And for the S&P at present, how many stocks do you think are at an all-time high out of the S&P?
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Give me a percentage number.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Do you think it's 10% of them?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Do you think it's 50% of them?
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Do you think it's 100% of them?
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: How many S&P stocks are currently at their all-time high?
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Give me a number.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: In the chat guys Scott says 5%, peter says 10%, george 25%, crimson 7%, 10%, 25%, 12%.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Farsight has just come out of the closet.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Probably not the greatest forum for it, my friend, nobody really cares.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Caroline, 20%.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Okay, you guys are obviously smart.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: You're reading the chart right.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: It's actually zero, 0.2 to be precise.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: There is not a stock, or maybe, yeah, there isn't a stock.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Well, there's probably one stock, literally one stock out of 500 that is at a one-year high, right?
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: So what does that say to you?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Does that say to you we're in euphoria, we're at the top of the market?
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Probably not, right?
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Okay, let me ask you the same question.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: That was the S&P.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: I'll ask you the same question about the NASDAQ, and I'm going to make it a little harder for you because I'm not going to show you the chat.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: So, out of the 100 stocks in the NASDAQ, how many of them do you think are at a one-year high, 52-week high?
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Give me some numbers for the NASDAQ here.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Okay, nasdaq numbers, any Nasdaq numbers.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Room to fly, indeed.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Okay, 7%, 12%, 10% says George Six, zero, five.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Okay, you guys learn from the last experience, right, you're getting a bit more conservative there.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: You see what happens.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: You've got one piece of information.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Okay, we're being a bit cautious there.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Yes, but most of you are going for pretty, pretty low numbers there on that front.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: And you're right, it's zero.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Not a single Nasdaq stock is currently at a 52-week high.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: So is it likely that we are at the top of the market?
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Where is the market?
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Typically when we are at the top of the market?
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Typically it sits here at about 20 percent, when we about 20 percent of all stocks.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Now it's like an S&P, uh, at an all-time.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Well, maybe not all-time high, but 52 week all-time high.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: That is usually close to the top of the market.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: We are not at 20 percent, we're at zero.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: So I think we've got some room to fly.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I believe I can fly.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: He sings from jail.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Why is it that every musician with good music is presently in jail?
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Winston, any thoughts on that?
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Any thoughts on that?
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Just sort of any thoughts?
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: No, no, he thinks it's very sad too.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: He likes the music too.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: No, no, he thinks it's very sad too.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: He likes the music too.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: So there we go.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: I suppose he did marry Aaliyah when she was 16.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: That might've been a little bit of a giveaway, right?
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: I'm sure they met just exactly the day she turned 16, and nothing unto what happened before then, but anyway.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: And then she died in a plane crash.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Poor thing, accident, I'm sure, just like Epstein tripped and hung himself and then beat himself up after he was dead.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Now, what's dragging the Nasdaq down?
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Anybody.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: What is the one stock that's dragging the Nasdaq down?
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Dirty business?
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what they call the show business, isn't it A very dirty business?
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: What's dragging the Nasdaq down?
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: It isn't Winston, he's doing his best to pop it up.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Any stocks?
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Give me a stock.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: In fact, you can give me two stocks.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: What do you think is dragging the Nasdaq down.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: If you get these right, if you get both of them right two stock names you will get a cookie.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Are you sure you're not from NYC?
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Yes, I would say that was fairly apparent.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Right, I am a German with a somewhat English accent who's in Hong Kong.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: It seems fairly unlikely that I'm from New York.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: You guys, lots of cookies to be given out.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: If we only had cookies.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Lots of you are getting that right.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Absolutely brilliant.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: I love you guys for that.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it is Tesla and it is Apple, and I'll tell you in a second why Apple is dragging the Nasdaq down.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: But yeah, it's those two.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: If they were not down, the Nasdaq would be up 6% or something more.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: And let me give you two reasons why.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: At least the Tesla stock, I believe, should not be where it is right now.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: But that is an opinion.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: The chart kind of.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: We have a look at that in a second.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: The ride share market of autonomous vehicles.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Av stands for autonomous vehicle.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: You might want to remember that one because that's the one that's going to be all over the news forever.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: We're expecting the autonomous vehicle market by, say 2027, to be about a percent and a half of the ride share market, but still about a $1.5 billion market.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: This is Goldman Sachs.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to happen way quicker.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: By the way, by 2030, they think it'll be 7% and I'll show you some data in a second why it is way slow in about 7, 8 billion.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to happen way faster.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: And you know why?
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: Because, waymo and before you ask yourself what stocks to buy, obviously go and watch the masterclass and actually learn the rules You're not buying the wrong autonomous vehicle driving stock because that could be very, very, very, very painful.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Waymo at the moment, how many cars do they have on the road?
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Anybody know how many cars do they have on the road?
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: And obviously it's a declining number.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Given how many are getting satellite in Los Angeles, you know, fighting for freedom or some sort of nonsense.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: I do think all violent protesters should be shot.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: I don't actually mean that they should be shot, they should be arrested.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: I think they should be arrested.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: I don't really get policing nowadays, it's just sort of stamped there.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: I don't really understand.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: That's not what used to happen.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: They used to just come and charge at you.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: But anyway, that's a side story.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: Waymo there are 1,500 Waymos on the road and at the moment, there are 3% of Uber's rides, which is quite a lot.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: I think it's 3%, is it 1.5%?
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: I can't remember.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: It's somewhere between 1.5% and 3%.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Don't quote me on the exact number, but it's still quite a lot.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's 1.5%, I think it probably is.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: That's quite a lot.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: So I think, for when Tesla comes on stream, I think this is very rapidly going to scale up because it's just going to be way cheaper.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: It's going to be way, way, way cheaper.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: They should short.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Yes, the inner German came out for a second.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Yes, I should always short.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: Round them all up.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: I do actually think they should.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: You know, honestly, I remember when I was in no-transcript burning You're calling that.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know anyway, nevermind.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Now, what about Tesla?
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Well, tesla was the most sold stock across UBS's platform 36 million in outflows.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Sold stock across UBS's platform 36 million in outflows, massive volume, the biggest sell-off.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: The day that Elon and Musk fell out that's probably what happened, isn't it?
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: Musk and Trump fell out was the biggest sell-off they've ever had, except for the launch of DeepSeek, when everybody dumped Nvidia and that was a fairly profitable buy right.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: But the lovely retail degenerates are buying one thing and one thing only, and I was thinking who's buying this?
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: And then I looked on my ex-fees and some of my friends are buying this too.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: It is a stock called TSLL.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: It is basically two times Tesla, so it moves at double the speed and it's just seen the biggest inflow yesterday ever since the thing's been around.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: So retail is gung-ho on Tesla and if you look at the pre-market, it's actually driving it up 2% up again today as we look at that chart in a second.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't discount it.