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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 10 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: We will review our favorite five picks that we put
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: into the Favorites contest. We will dissect why we left
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: some games out. We will preview the early lines we
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: already like for week eleven. I'm joined as always buy
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: my co host, my companion Mike and padre My BFF
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: L sim in, Hey chat, how are we doing?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Brother? There were points today where we were likely to
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: be four and zero. We were likely to be zero
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: to four. We were likely to be two and two
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: with the two teams that we lost that we lost with.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: We were likely to be two and two with the
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: two teams that we won with. As it stands, we
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: are exactly two and two somehow today, Simon, the streak
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: of Favorites covering Road Favorites covering has come to an end.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: At least that was true in the early window. Today. Reminder,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: road Favorites were road favorites heading into today's games have
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: been sixteen games over five hundred. They were one and
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: three in the early window. The Favorites were road favorites.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: The bad news we faded the one team that won,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: and we backed one of the teams that lost. Those
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: are our two losses on the day. We'll get to
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: all of that. Catch every episode of The Favorites live
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: YouTube page. As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: by Bet three six five and now new Bet three
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• 2:40
  Speaker 1: All right, let's start with the road favorite we faded
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: because when we chatted this morning to decide on our
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: final picks, this was the one game you were all
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: of a sudden having second thoughts about, which completely threw me,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: totally surprised me. I am talking about the Indianapolis Colts
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: plus four and a half against the Buffalo Bills. That
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: was the one routine that covered in the early window.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Give me your thoughts and why all of a sudden
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: you got antsy.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: Other than Josh Allen Joe Flacco, But it was Josh Allen.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: It was just the Josh Allen part of it where
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: I was like, are we overthinking this one here? And
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: it clearly we did.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: The Bills make me want something, throw your hands something,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: so throw your hair back.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: Come on now, the Bills. I'm making it happen now.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: The better cub, even though it wasn't a great day
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: for him, he was struggling at one point. You know,
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: if you took away that pick six. It would have
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: been a thirteen ten game, the Colts would have the ball,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: but he did throw that pick six, So seventeen thirteen
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Joe Flacco had to keep it throwing the ball and
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: that was not a position we wanted to be and
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: we wanted them to run the ball, and instead they
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: had to pass the ball because they were They were
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: behind basically from the get go, and yeah, jadd chadd,
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: it's Appearum, Joe Flack goes turned into a pumpkin since
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: he's become the starter. This is the Joe flatkill we
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: all knew and love, who had retired. I couldn't get
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: a job with any team the NFL and then Cleveland
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: game of a job and he's been on a he
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: went on a crazy run. He's back to what he
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: was before that crazy run. And uh that that's unfortunate
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: because it was a good number, and you know at
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: four and a half. I liked the spot as well,
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: but at the simplest terms, the simplest base of it,
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: it was just like, are we overthicking this betting against
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen here? And yeah we did. We did that.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Over Look, to put a finer point on it, I
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of a different take on this
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: game because it generally went if it was just if
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: we're taking out sort of the randomness of turnovers exactly
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: as we thought it would go. The Colts dominated on
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: the ground. When they weren't turning the ball over, they
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: were the not better side, but equal side. In that game.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: There were two drives that mattered. Look Jonathan Taylor, by
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: the way average five point four yards per carry, had
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: more than one hundred yards. Like this team was grinding it.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: And don't forget Joe Flacco throws the pick six. Then
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: they're in the red zone. He throws another interception. After that,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: they were still up thirteen to ten in the first half.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So to me, this game came down to Josh Allen,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: as you said, and it was in the back of
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: my head while I was watching Josh Allen do Josh
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Allen things. Because on the second to last drive of
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: the first half, Josh Allen throws a thirty five thirty
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: four yard bomb to Dawson Knox and then next play
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: runs at thirteen yards for a touchdown. The Colts have
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: to punt on the next drive, and here comes Josh Allen.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: It's second and ten from his twenty seven. He's rolling right,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: his heels get clipped twice, keeps his balance before he
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: goes out of bounds. Classic Josh Allen, flick Mac Collins
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: forty four yards. They get a field goal. All of
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: a sudden, they're up twenty to thirteen, and like it's
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: still the Colts were in it the whole time. It's
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: twenty to thirteen. In the third quarter, they're driving fourth
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: in inches. Joe Flacco gets sacked. You're right it was
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen. You're right, it was Joe Flacco. But if
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: not for Josh Allen or Joe flaccoh we were right there.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: The bills make me a water. You even mentioned he
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: got stripsacked too, Flako, like he just three turnovers, he
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: just killed us. And we talk all the time, and
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: you bet ugly dogs, you cannot lose the turnover battle.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: And not that I knew that we were dead and
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: when we threw that pick six, but I knew eventually
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Josh would figure it out. It took him a half,
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: Like you said, he was bad to start at the game,
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: but once he gets in a groove. I mean, we
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: joke all the time. This guy is top three, top
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: two talent in the league for a reason. He's incredible,
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: and yeah, definitely a bad bet.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: It's it's almost unfair what he can do. So good
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: for the Bills, Good for Matt.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: Mitchell, good for you.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell really excited for him.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Dirt wounds before we come on the show, and.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: That was kind of by the way, Matt Mitchell like.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: I'm the producer.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: I don't ever make comments about your picks, but I
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: knew that was a bad pick.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Matt.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Thanks, Matt Mitchell really give us a lot of confidence
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: before the show. Let's go all right. So one of
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: the road favorites that we were all in on we
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: were so excited about. We're like, this is the spot
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: San Francisco at Tampa five and a half when it
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: opened six and a half in the contest Tampa coming
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: off a physical overtime game in Kansas City, traveling back
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: San Francis, getting Christian McCaffrey back, and this started out
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: so perfectly for us, Simon, we were nailing it.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, it did it did well. You're talking about
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: they're up ten to nothing in ten to three. Yeah, yeah,
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: but it's still if it never felt right. But you're
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: right at the end of the day. I mean, we're
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: gonna we're gonna talk about blaming this kicker. But the
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: red zone struggles continued though. That's what it is, just
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: bumming me out. It's like they just can't complete these drives.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: They dominated Tampa in every way. I mean Tampa, they
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: they're they're so good at making the plays that they
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: need to. That's that kind of team they are. If
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: you let them hang into this game, they'll steal it
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: from you. Mean, they almost deal with the Chiefs the
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: week before. It's just they're really great at playing, making
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: teams play down to their level and keeping a minute.
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: But they also got crazy lucky, and we had the muffkick.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: Like you said, they were dead, and they muffed that punt, and.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: To open the second half, the Bucks were down and
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: went three and out to start the second three and
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: out and the forty nine ers muffed the punt, and
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, the Bucks are back in
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the game, and it's like, come.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: On still, though doesn't matter at the end of the day,
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: fucking Moody, like this guy misses three kicks and just
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: kills us. Like it's just so brutal. When we play
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: these numbers, these favorites and these key numbers, and we
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: don't get the lucky breaks where it's like, come on,
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: like this is the guy's worst career day, and so
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: happens a good day, we bet on him. So yeah,
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: I was. I was bummed by the end of the day.
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: We should have taken the five and a half and
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: we didn't get the five and a half. We got
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: greedy and thought we were smart in the book and
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: took the six and a half. Or at the end
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: of the day, the five and a half was probably
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: the right number, right, like he makes two of those
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: kicks at least they went by six. The five and
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: a half was the right number, and we got greedy
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: taking that six and a half.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Well, look, even if if we had taken the five
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: and a half, even with all that, don't forget the
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Bucks had a fourth down in their own territory. They
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: went for it. Nick Bosa is hanging on Baker Mayfield,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: literally hanging on the guy. It's one of the best
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: defensive ends in all of football, one of the best
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: defensive players in all of football. Baker Mayfield is such
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: a fucking baller. He's stiff arming the dude dragging him
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: as he rolls right and he completes a miraculous fourth
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: down pass. If he doesn't do that, there was enough
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: time that even if the Niners had gained ten yards,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: they were gonna have to kick field goal, like they
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: were gonna be conservative. But the Bucks had enough timeouts
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: that you and I both had the five and a half.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: I was still like crossing my fingers as Baker is
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: about to go down, but before he completes that pass,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: and like that weird slow motion moment where your entire
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: bet is in the balance. I was thinking, in all
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: those moments, it's like in a movie when everything goes
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: slow motion and like flashing. You're like, all right, this
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: is gonna be incomplete. This is how much time is left.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: This is like the ten thousand hours of betting. You
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: know the situation. And I'm like, okay, we're gonna get
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: the ball back, We're gonna have to kick a field goal.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: We'll be up by six. We're gonna lose this contest,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: but at least we'll be in the five and a half.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Fucking Baker like not only completes that pass, but then
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: there's like three straight penalties. The Bucks tie it. I'm like, okay, great,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: forty one seconds left, maybe we can get the six
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: in overtime. And then Jake Moody finally does his job,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: like that was excruciating. That was an excruciating beat.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: It is, but like giving more love to Baker. He
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: has shown me so much right now these last couple
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: of weeks, like to go to toe with the Chiefs
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: on the road, then come home like you said on
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: short rest, and just keep his team in it where
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: he's just dragging these guys across the line finish line.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: It's crazy, like no Godwin, no Evans.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: No, like you should just lay down and die in
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: this matchup, and he just didn't go away. And it's
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: pretty crazy that. Not that Sam Donald's turned back into
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: a pumpkin, but you know what I mean, take away
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: Jefferson and his other weapons and see how Sam Donald
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: is on the Vikings now and it's just Baker is
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: not that. It's pretty crazy like Baker might actually last
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: year for the next five to eight years in this league,
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: which is just crazy to think where he was at.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: He was on three different teams in a year span,
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: and now he's like a legit starter in this league.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: So yeah, brutal loss for Tampa. That's kind of game.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: They steal that one there. They could be easily be
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: a seventh seed for the playoffs, and now it feels
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: like they're slowly fading away from this playoff race.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: I wonder if there was a poll of quarterbacks who
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: were respected by players, like where Baker would land. You know,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: it's going to be Josh Allen and Joe Burrow and
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Patrick you know, and Lamar. But they also got to
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: love Baker. I would not be surprised even if he's
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: not a top ten quarterback in terms of talent, He's
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: a guy that everybody wants to play with. Here's the
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: question we have to ask ourselves. You're projecting a little
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: bit about Tampa Bay. Now what do we think of
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: the Niners at this point? They are not a team
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: that can get into any rhythm yet. And was today Okay,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: this is your first game back with McCaffrey, maybe you're
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: being a little conservative, Kyle Shanahan said in the halftime interview.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: They're pulling back a little bit on his snaps because
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: it was so hot. They didn't want to burn them
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: out in that first game. But like, what do we
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: think of the Niners right now, they're tough to.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: You even to get a read on, just because the
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: red zone struggles, and it's like, yeah, I want to
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: fade him as these big favorites, but we know if
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: they put together, they can roll teams by twenty one.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Like that's just the hard thing to say, is what
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: are we getting weak to week is? Right now? It
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: isn't consistent and trying to figure it out isn't consistent.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: Like one week they're great and dominant like they were
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: against that Cowboys team. Right they came on that second
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: half when they were down ten to six, score twenty
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: one straight right, three drives, three touchdowns and when it's
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: when their kick a field goes like this and let
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: teams hang in. We've seen this season they've lost a
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: lot of those games, like they could have lost today
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: if Baker makes that completion. Oh yeah, not going to overtime.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: I mean they probably win this game, as crazy as
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: that sounds. So yeah, they're a tough team to get reround.
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about their line coming up, but I'm assuming
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be a big favorite this upcoming week.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: It is a big, big number against Seattle. Touchdown favorite.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: We're going to get into that one for sure. All right,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: let's talk about a couple of games we won. Like
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: when we got to New Yar halftime, I was convinced,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: all right, Pittsburgh's gonna blow this. The Colts are going
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: to cover jeesus, the Niners are going to find their way.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: But this game with Pittsburgh kind of in the end
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: like ended up exactly the way we thought it would.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: We just had to get there. We survived a failed
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: fake punt from the Steelers ten when they were winning.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: We survived a fumble by the Steelers on the on
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: the Commander's one yard line when they were about to
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: go in for the go ahead score. We survived Jaden
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Daniels multiple times. We were saved. This is why football
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: was so great. A Russell Wilson moonball to the newly
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: acquired and vilified by Aaron Rodgers. How lucky he got
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: out of New York. Mike Williams who made a Willie
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Mays over the shoulder catch for the game winning touchdown. Ah,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: it was chef's kiss.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was really fun. And you know, of all
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: the games you picked this week, this is one that,
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: like both of us were a little hesitant about it
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: because Jayden Daniels factor, but I never really waivered. I
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: loved it. But like you said, we both bet heavy
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: on the three. I bet heavy on the three in
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: the two and a half, and I think we were
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: talking in the morning it already moved a one and
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: a half for two, and it's like, should we fade
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: this laid steam? I remember, not that you had cold
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: feet about, but like you were just a little unsure
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: of it.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it was like it just felt like to me, Simon,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: like the raw rass spot that we know we have
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: to bet. That feels a little bit cursed going against
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Jade and Daniels because everybody else was betting it too.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: Well, never know, will we You know, I'm a degenerate.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: But it really came down just to the number and
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: the two and a half. I mean, once again, the
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: two and a half. How important it is. It was
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: going to land on it, like if Daniels drove the
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: field got that field goal, it lands on two and
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: it's like no worries. That's why we always talk about
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: how this is the most important number of football. I
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: really should try to make some money off this two
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: and a half thing. I feel like we're the only
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: ones that beat it to death. But it's such a
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: key number now in football. And yeah, that's the definition
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: of a Tomelin spot. And I'm with you that the
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: I never lost faith even when we were down in
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: every lot of states. But the fumble at the one,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: and again this is coming off all these miskicks on
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: the forty niners. I'm just like, oh my god, oh
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: my god, are we really about to be one and
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: three where we should be three and one? And luckily,
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: like you said, the got the moon ball from Russell
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: Wilson and Pittsburgh. I hate that I doubted them. I mean,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: I said it was a small bet to take the
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: around here before the season, but Tom got that over
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: all those years with no quarterback, and we've seen what
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: he can be now with just not even a great quarterback,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: but someone that at least can be consistent back there.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: And yeah, he put his neck off Russell Wilson and
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: it's paid off. I mean, they're what seven and two
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: outch I have to look at.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Their record, but they're seven and two sign that's crazy, Like.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: They're one they're a game away now from going over
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: their win total.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: They're seven and two and they're three and oh straight
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: up against the spread as a dog, and uh, they're
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: in first place in their division. Right, Yeah, it's crazy,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: you know, And obviously they've got a huge game coming up.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Their schedule gets brutal from here on out. I mean,
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: that was obviously no easy game either, But it's just
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: that was a huge win. Like I said, that's that
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: win dictates. If the Commanders win that game, they could
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: easily have won the NFC. So they still can. Obviously
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: they play the Eagles on Thursday. But Pittsburgh, now, like
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: you just said, they're in the driving position of their division. Now,
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: that's just a huge win.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: They got Baltimore this week. Obviously they'll be home underdogs
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: against the Ravens. We're going to talk about that one too.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: So this the one thing I want to say about
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: this is it was a weird game because it felt
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: like we were dominating the whole game except for a
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: sixteen play ninety one yard drive by Jaden Daniels to
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: end the first half and then an opening drive to
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: score time.
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: I mean that drive, Like, again, we talk all the time,
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: he is so good though, Like that drive was not
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: vintage Peyton Manny but it felt like that, like this
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: kid in a two minute drill, it's something special and
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: it's just when you watch, you just know and it's like,
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: I know, I hate that he's in my favorite team's division,
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: but as something that just loves football, it's like, man,
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: I'm going to enjoy this for the next ten to
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: fifteen years. Jen Danels is just something special to watch.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: He is a amazing He's just so good. But that
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: was a really sweet victory for US. Yay Steelers, Yay
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: rah rah. All Right, Atlanta, New Orleans, New Orleans plus
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: three and a half, let's give it up for Saints
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: interim head coach and special teams coach Darren Rizzy because
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: after the game, Darren Rizzy admitted that when he got
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: to the stadium, he went to use the crapper in
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: the coach's locker room, the head coaches crapper, and he
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: stopped it up and the first thing he thought to
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: himself was this is going to be a crappy day.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: That's that's what he admitted postgame. And the truth is,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: we love an interim coach with a sense of humor
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: who also covers.
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I mean, you just saw it was just
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: he I love first time that coaches right because he's
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: so emotional in silent every play he's living and dying.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, every time they missed a kick, he was
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: going berserk, which cracked me up. And it's like, man,
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: I love there's still guys like this coaching like not
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: the boring always kind of pissed off guy and the
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: side like literally guy having fun with real emotions. But
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: that was a total spot like that same steam is
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: so bad. And they were so good in this game
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: in so many different ways. Defensively, they stepped up their
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: Carr's deep ball was incredible and another play that I
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: thought we were dead on was Kamar dropping that easy
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: walk in touch under the game.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and so the game just so like context. They
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: had a third and one, they complete, they get a
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: first down and it's over. Alvin Kamara does not have
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: anybody within twenty yards of him, and he and he
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: drops the ball, just drops it. I thought, oh fucking a,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: it's gonna end twenty four to twenty, or it's going
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: to go to overtime and we're gonna lose twenty six
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: to twenty. No.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: I definitely felt the twenty fourth twenty It's like you
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: just gave Kirk the exact life he needed. The defense
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: is tired, they'll be able to get it here. And
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: now the defense really stepped up. I mean, I want
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: to give up seventeen points to this high flying Atlanta team.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: And you know, Robinson had an incredible game. I don't
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: know if you catched a couple of theseus, but yeah,
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: he was sick incredible and like that was the main
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: game I had on my main TV. You know, that
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: was like my favorite bet today on Yeah, convinced me,
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: and it's like, you know, feeling good right there. They
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: started out Saints looking great and then they're not doing
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: anything in the second half. I think they only scored three
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: points in the whole second half and we still held
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: on to the cover. So really fun swept bet. We
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: might take a week off from Ben the Saints team, you.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Think, because right now they're going to be three point
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: home favorites against the Cleveland Browns. So it might actually
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: not be a game we take off in which we
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: have to bet the return of Jameis Winston. That's true
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: to New Orleans in a revenge game, we're getting shuttled
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: out of town. This was a huge luck game, the
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: biggest luck game board for the luck rankings, and it
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: almost played out exactly like that. The Falcons missed multiple
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: field goals. Talk about you know, your fate being on
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: the foot of kickers. That included Young Wayku missing the
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: game time kick with six point thirty left in the game.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: We got a little bit back because of the Alvin
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: Kamara drop, so it was a little bit equal.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't mind him making it though, because I was
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: I told you I was worried about that touchdown, So
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: him making the field goals have been nice because they
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: would have just been up three, and I'm like, okay,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: Like now we have Derek Carr taking those deep shots
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: and if he misses, who cares. We still cover our number.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I had a decent amount on their money
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: line as well, especially on our money line around Robin,
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: and I thought we would get there with the Saints.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: When they put up three in the second half, it's
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: like I didn't feel like we deserved it or even
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: had the chance to get in there. But once again,
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: their defense really stepped up. That Saints team, and we
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: talk all the time that's the difference of having a
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: coach you like and you want to play hard for.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: And that felt like a game where the team played
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: hard for that coach, where you know, there's some other
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: games you could talk about if you want, where he
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: just felt like guys simply quit on their team and
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: their coaches.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: Last stat for you, the Saints averaged ten point seven
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: six yards for passing attempt. That's great, that is insane.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: And shoutout we only won one by three.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Shout out to Nick Giffen, by the way, who
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: not only had this in luck rankings, also had the
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Cowboys Eagles under in the luck rankings, also had the
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Jaguars vikings in the luck rankings that were under also
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: had He talked about this on convinced me this morning.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: If you're not watching, you're missing because he had Derek
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: Carr under half an interception in this game and had
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: a great breakdown about how the Falcons can't get pressure,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: so when Car isn't pressured, he's less likely than the
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: league average to throw an interception. All right, we just
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: talked about some teams that really quit, and so that's
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: going to be impacting how we think about them going forward.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: We have the Rams minus one and half tomorrow night.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Thank God. Our last game out was the Jets minus
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Do you want to talk about that.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: For a second? Swinging and miss that was a bad one.
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: And it's like typical where like you always joke about
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: you're getting bullied. But I wish I could have dug
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: in my feet on it. But I got where everyone
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: was coming from and what their view was, and I
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: should have trusted my instincts and thought this line should
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: be three. With Arizona, the books had hung a bad line. Instead,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: I went against that thought I had made a bad
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: read that the professionals were smart on it, and they weren't.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: That is a team that is simply quit in everywhere.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: And Arizona the Kyler experience. When he's on, he is on.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Like in that game, I think at one point he
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: was twenty for twenty one passing like he.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Was really locking seventeen straight past as new Arizona Cardinals record.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: He might have completed more, but that's when I saw
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: the record.
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: No, he was really impressive. And you know we always
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: joke like you can tell a lot from the early
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: in the game, how two teams are they drove the field,
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: got two touchdowns, Jets drive the field, get two field goals,
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: and like we always say, it's over from that point forward.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: I think they eventually went up twenty one to six,
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: and offensively they could have done whatever they wanted. Arizona,
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: they just looked like such a better team Defensively. We
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: talked about it like they're a team of no names.
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, they have Buddha Baker obviously, but yeah, Gannons
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: really turned that defense around into his identity of they
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: give up yards, but they don't surrender those touchdowns, and
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: they've kind of had that identity this whole season. So impressive.
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: It's what four straight wins for him now the Cardinals
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: and Kyler so I keep waiting there for a de
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: fall the other way, but it's it's not happening. This
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: is a legit team. They deserve to be in the
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: winning the NFC West right now. Like they're the best
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: team in that division, no doubt.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: Six and four. Two things. One. Anytime you say Buddha Baker,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: he's one of the best defensive players in football, and
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: this year he's sort of playing like it. I always
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: feel whenever I hear my kid and I whenever we're
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: watching these games, we're always like you know so and
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: so college, John Simpson College, you know, and we'll mention
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: like the most random people to see if we can
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: get it right. He said Buddha Baker in my head,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: I'm like Buddha Baker, the way he plays, he should
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: have gone to LSU or Alabama. I'll open it up
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: to the YouTube chat as well as Evan to see
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: if anyone can get the right college for Buddha Baker.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Speaking of teams, Wow, someone just got it Washington. It's right.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Speaking of teams that quit, boy Dallas Cowboys, thank god
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: we didn't have a conversation about putting them in the contest.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: No, and I won't even tell you. I won't even
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: tell the people the other game you were trying to
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: get in there because you were losing your goddamn mind.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, Well, you're right. I was tempted by
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: the Titans. All week we had avoided the Titans. I
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: was tempted by the Titans just because I was going
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: to mention it was the one game that Nick Giffin
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: and the luck rankings completely whiffed on and all week,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: like he had been hyping it in the slack channel,
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: I was saying, this is gross We're not going to
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: do it. He talked about her to convince me we
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: avoided it. I'm proud of us, so good for that.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: You're like, I know, it's gross, let's just put it in.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: It's gross.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, it wasn't. I wasn't that cavalier. It
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: were like, if we're going to take one out. You said,
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: if we're gonna take one out, you'd rather with the Jets,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: And I said, really, over the types And we ended
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: up leaving it as it is with the Rams for
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: tomorrow night. The one game that I feel like we
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: missed on and we just sort of were cowardly even
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: though we handicapped it perfectly, was the Broncos We need.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, that was really fun. I mean we didn't
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: even talk about that. That was by far the most
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: insane game of the day. As much as I want
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: to take a victory lap on Dallas sucking and the
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: Eagles winning, I don't want to punch down right now.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Our producer Gift knows he doesn't need it. He doesn't care.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: I don't think Cowboys care right now. They're just like, yeah, whatever,
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: we'll get a good draft pick. Yeah, Like you know,
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs. We joke all the time they're gonna
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: get caught by some team, but they just find a way.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: And what was it did a get was Denver up
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: fourteen three at one point? Yeah, okay, there was something
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: like that.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: They were up. I can't remember what it was, but
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: they were definitely Yeah, it was fourteen to three.
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: I think they're beating the crap out of them, and
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: somehow Spags makes the adjustments. Bo Knicks, who I think
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: he started the game, you know, throwing for one hundred
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: ninety two yards to two touchdowns. At that point, they
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: figured him out and they shut it down. I don't
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: think he scored another point the rest of the game, right,
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: They won sixteen fourteen, So they did. Yeah, even on
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: their worst day, which was today, like we talked about,
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: they came off a short week overtime game. They looked sluggish,
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: they looked tired, They did not play well. Still played
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: a full game. And that's what's so special about this
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: Chiefs team. And you know, with joke all the time
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: about that Brady run with that perfect team and the
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: pressure you feel that that team was not coming off
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: of anything like this is a team coming off two
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: Super Bowls, now they're a perfect nine to zero. This
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: Kansas City team, it is truly mental how special this
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: team is and this everything between the coaching and the
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: players everything, I know, we're gonna we're gonna going to
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: keep doing what we've been doing. Is we take more.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: Holmes is a short favorite, and we faced him as
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: a big dog, and I'm with you, I'm pissed me
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: to have it in there because it just it went
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: right into what we talked about him. He plays these
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: ugly teams close and he beats up on the good teams.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: Like that's the thing about Mahomes, it's it's bizarre. Like
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, they beat the crap out of them.
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: They played really good against the Ravens that game. Today
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: they did not play good. It was tough in every way,
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: the denvers all over them, and still they found a way.
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: And yeah, you can say they got lucky, but that
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: was a blocked field goal. That's not luck, that's coaching scheme.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: It's something they saw on tape and they attacked it.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that was That was probably the most fun game.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: That was the game. I definitely I jumped out of
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: my scene shot it because I was like Holy shit.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: I can't believe they blocked that because I thought they
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: were dead too, just like the announcers. So pretty crazy
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: Chiefs fans.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: All right, well, let's use that to transition into the
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: week eleven games. Reminder, Simon and I are two and
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: two heading into Money Out of Football. We're on the
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: Rams at minus one and a half in the contest.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: The numbers moved up obviously tree and by the way,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: that ultimately was the factor. Like we liked the number
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: on the Rams at one and a half, it was
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: two and a half in the contest this morning, so
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: we decided to lock in that closing line value Week eleven.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: I don't even want to say the games I like,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: because the game that I want to talk about is
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: the game that you just mentioned, the Chiefs and the
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. In Buffalo, the Chiefs are one point favorites.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: Pro Football's two superpowers renew their classic rivalry. Everything says,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: of course, we want to take the Bills. Yet we
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: can't because we're going to have to take Patrick Mahomes
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: as a one point favorite on a now fifteen game
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: winning streak with a score differential in their undefeated season
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: so far of fifty six points, which is the lowest
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: score differential of any team that has ever started undefeated
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: this many games. It's why we bet against the Chiefs
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: this past week because they are not blowing teams out.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: But like, what the fuck do we do here? Simon?
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: This is easy bet. I am on bet three six '
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: five in New Jersey. The line has flipped to plus
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: one and a half on the Chiefs. Hammer that number
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: on the Chiefs. We talked about you just you don't think, well,
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Mahomes is the dog. Don't ever think it. You take
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: the number. So I could have been talking into this
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: that the Bills where the dog. That's where the value
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: would have been. The profession has already come in. They've
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: already hit this number. It's plus one and a half
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: right now for this Chiefs team. Give it to me.
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, if I could put more than a thousand
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: bucks on a teaser, this would be a huge teaser
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: play for me. It's seven and a half on this
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: Chiefs team. But unfortunately that's not gonna be happening for
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: the next at least two or three days. So I'll
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: grab it early. This Chiefs one and a half, I'll
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: grab as much as I can even if this keep
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: going up like we've seen it before, right, it was
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: like that forty nine er scenario they go to two
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: and a half by kick golf. So maybe I'll get
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: a little greedy and weight. Maybe this more Bills money
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: will come in. But we don't overthink these spots. We
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: take mahomes the dog. Even if we lose this game.
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: Long term, it's a winner.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't argue with it. Even if they were
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: at one point favorite, I still probably would have played
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: We know this Bills team though. That's another thing else
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: pissed off. Today. We talked about you bet the Bills
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: against bad teams and nothing to stand out more this year.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: They've just beat up on bad teams this year. But
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: we said they struggle against good teams this year and
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: they've played good competition. They've struggled against them. So trying
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: hard out to ever think this one because I am
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: with you, I don't want it right away. I wanted
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: to be on the Bills because I thought we're gonna
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: get them as a dog. But no, the professionals are
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: the public whoever came in early has dictated this happy
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: to bet this Chiefs team at plus one and a half.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: Right now, I know the right side is the winning side,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: shout out Scooch. But the Colts were the right side
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: in that game. They cover that game if they don't
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: have two interceptions, a fumble and all that that ends
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: in a sack and by the way, and a touchdown
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: to Josh Downs, their best receiver that he drops, that
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: is a walk in touchdown.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: I agree with Matt Mitchell who says it's a ludicrous tack.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: What does Matt Mitchell know? We also mentioned the Niners.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Niners are seven point favorites at home against Seattle. I
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: don't know that I've seen enough from the Niners at
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: this point to make them a seven point favorite in
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: the divisions. The team coming off a bye.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: Crazy. It's crazy because even if they covered today, said
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: they did cover, I would make this line like six
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: and a half. But they didn't cover it. So it's like,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: how do you not make this line five and a half.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: It's seven? It opens at seven, So I I guess
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: I'm a sucker. I'm missing something here. I'll take the
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: seven right away. Like you just said, who are this
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers team to be getting that seven? I
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: know the Seahawks have been bad and everything. We get it,
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: But like Chad just said, they're coming off a bye
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: in a divisional game. That's a must win for the
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: Seahawks team. They are so desperate they know this is
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: their season in this game. So, yeah, the seven, this
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: has to come down. Is this really gonna go up
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: to seven and a half? Is this really gonna keep
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: going up? I don't think so. I think it's gonna
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: go down by Tuesday. So I'm with you on that one.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: I'll grab the seven. Now.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: The other game that interested me, I know, we just
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: talked about it. I don't know how we don't take
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: Cleveland plus three against against New Orleans. It's in New Orleans.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: I know it's jamis, but I don't have a fear
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: of that one. Like the come down for the Saints,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: it's still the Saints. It's still a team that just
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: lost seven in a row. It's a team that had
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: the perfect spot and still, by the way, needed a
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: lot of luck to win this game. Like that defense
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: that the Browns have is the epitome of the defense
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: that gives Derek Carr a hard time. If I can
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: get the Cleveland Browns as an underdog with one more
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: week of Jamis prepping to take over. I'm okay with that.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm laughing because that week, I don't know how
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: it helps Jamis. Either we're gonna get a good Jamis
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: Day or getting a bad Jamis day. Mean you know that.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Bet No, we'd have no idea what we're gonna get
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: out of them. But I agree with you. This is
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: more to me just about playing the number. Yeah, I
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: don't know if I'm gonna bet this one for real
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: this week because there's other games I do like a
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: lot more. And again Jamis, I still feel like, I mean,
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: you got away when I gets the Ravens and it's
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: like I can't get over that. The Kyle Hamilton drop
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: just always will pop in my head with him for
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: the rest of the year, where it's like that's who
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: he is, Like that really is who he is. He's
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: gonna throw a bunch of amazing passes and then just
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: one absolute meatball right to the defender that either they're
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: gonna catch it or thing's going to go right through
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: their hands. So yeah, play the number. I'm already seeing
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: a couple two and a half's pop up, Chad, So
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: you're actually on the smart side round. This number is moving,
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: So I would say, if you agree with me and Chad,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: definitely grab the three now because it's going down.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: What do we do with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Pittsburgh is
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: a three point underdog at home. It's the raw ras spot. Yeah,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is streaking right now. It's it feels like we're
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: tempting fate. I know, percentage wise, we're supposed to keep
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: betting the Steelers, but it does feel like we are
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: tempting fate a little bit. And also, here's one thing
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: that I think is really important. The Steelers have been
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: much better when Alex Highsmith was playing. He went out
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: at the end of the Commander's game and was walking
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: on one leg off the field the Steelers defensive end.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: So I do think I'm not quite anxious to bet
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: it until I know his status.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm against total speculation, but he'll look like he
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: stepped on Daniel's ankle and rolled his own ankle.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, rare.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: That's a quick turnaround. So I'm with you on that.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: That's definitely negative, but it's another game where you can,
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: if you want, you can be patient. I'm gonna grab
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: the three now, just because in the case of professional
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: side's coming on Pittsburgh. But this is gonna be a
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: pros rust Jos. I mean this is every year we
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: do this. Every year we're in the exact spot me
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: and you have bet this number at three, three and
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: a half on Mason Rudolph or Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: at home against Lamar and we've covered that number. So
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: I know you're I get what you're saying right now,
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: but you're gonna come around. This is no doubt this
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: is gonna be one of our picks. But it's all
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: about the value. If this is two and a half,
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: I have no issue now forcing this one in at
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: three and a half. It's too tempting to pass on
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: that number, especially where we just know this this Ravens team.
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: You know what, top two, number one offense in football,
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: terrible defense, They're just terrible. Like Chase, I know he's special.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: He looked like he was playing at different speed and
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: I know that its youth is the game changer because
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: again when the Eagles played against him, Mitchell shut him down.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: Like when you have a young, fast corner. It's different
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: with Chase, though he looks so much faster than this
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: secondary and now they might be without Kyle Hamilton on
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: the Ravens side. How do we not factor that in
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: as well? That's an even bigger loss than anything when
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: we can add into that, Like, yeah, I'm trying not
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: to overthink this one. I think we should take the
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: three now because I do see the professional money coming in.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: But people out there that are just one one better,
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: they only bet one time a week. You can't be
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: patient because I could see this on up the three
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: and a half. Because this just feels like such a
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: public side of this Ravens team. I mean, we talk
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: all the time about that trend Lamar three and under.
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: It's usually an auto bet for me and Chad. Just
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: in this spot, it's not.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: You were talking about Jamar Chase, by the way, I like,
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: for a second, I'm like, Chase, who is he talking?
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: And then I remember Chase Chase Chase in the Bengals.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: What other games are you looking at? Uh?
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: Just it's just like, Okay, these games pop out. We
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: said we thought the that's quit. The Jets right now
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: are minus three against the Colts. How do you feel
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: like rolling it back with Joe Blackowa.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I feel fine, it's on my list. I almost felt
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: like I was going to be ridiculed, I know, but
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: I was kicked off the show if I mentioned taking.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: We're just betting numbers here, so that that's an early
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: number I'll grab now, just because that Jets team really
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: looked like they quit on me that.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: I was talking to Coward. I was doing his show
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: on Thursday, and I told him the wise guys are
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: on the Jets and he goes, no, he goes why,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: and I gave him all the reasons. He goes, yeah,
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: all those makes sense if they've got a coach who's
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: good and a team the police, but they don't. And
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: you know what, he was one hundred percent.
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well that's great. Okay, just ones that jumped out
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: to me. Chargers are minus two and a half at
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: home against the Bengals Sunday night. Yep, that's really interesting.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: That number is really interesting.
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: I wrote it down own. My first instinct with Cincinnati
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: Wow, all right, My first instinct was Charger is because
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: it's so the Bengals is so tempting. I thought that
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: would be a pick. So that's why I have a
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: modeled at So that's again another game where I'm just
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: questioning my own model because it's like, maybe I'm giving
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: too much respect to this Bengals team because they have
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: had some really close losses, but when they play against
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: really good teams other than the Ravens, they've kind of
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: been rolled, right, like the Eagles absolutely rolled them. So
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: that's that to me, is just the number that popped out,
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: like is this really good? We're gonna go up to
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: three plus three. They're gonna get so much Bengals money
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: against this Chargers team. So that's just an interesting number
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: that jump.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: I expect T Higgins to be back.
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: That's fair if he is back now changing my opinion,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: but if this is two and a half and there's
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: no T Higgins, I love this Chargers like they match
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: up really well, not only offensively, but defensively I think
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: as well, Like they're their front can attack this Bengals front,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: like we know that's the Bengal's weakness. They just can't
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: block for him right now. So just an early line
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: that jumped out.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: To me orders giving up a craptastic garbage time back
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: door overcover to the Tennessee Titans with forty one seconds
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: left today.
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: That was brutal.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: That was in that moment. My dog started whining because
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: she wanted like a little chewy, and I was like,
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: I cannot do this with you right now. And my
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: son was like, why are you being so mean to her?
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: And I didn't want to be like because I just
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: lost this fucking total because will Levis did the one
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: thing he can't do for fifty nine fucking minutes. Yeah,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: I tried to keep myself together. I just said, she's
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: I don't want to hear the whining right now. That's
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: all I said.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: Before we go. Just got to get your earlier read
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: on it, because I'm betting. I already bet the Packers
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: a minus six and a half. What's your view on this? Like,
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: isn't that a huge smash back for Green Bay? It
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: could not be worse vibes for Chicago it is, and
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: now your coming off of bye week, dude, it.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Is such bad vibes there. The fact the Bears hired
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator, they hired, they kept the coach. They
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: have wasted a year of Caleb Williams. They have possibly
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: wasted two years because next year he will have to
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: unlearn all the bad habits, rebuild chemistry with a team
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: and a receiver corps and DJ Moore specifically, who has
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: clearly lost faith in the guy, and he will have
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: to not be trigger happy because he is afraid that
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: he is going to get his head taken off by
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: teams like the New England Patriots, who sacked him nine
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: times today. By the way, another excruciating beat, Sean Kerner
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: gave out twenty nine and a half pass attempts under
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: Caleb got to thirty on the last player of the game.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: So it like this team is terrible. But six and
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: a half is a lot of points in the division
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: at home. That's my take. So I'm not I'm not ready.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: I'm on the other side. I'm taking Green Bay now
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: because I think this is gonna go up.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm not saying I'm not gonna wanna eventually get there.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not in the same place.
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: Your hesitation, I get it.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, not there because Jordan Love hasn't been amazing. He's
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: been giving the ball up a lot, he's banged up,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: He's thrown a lot of picks. So there's a lot
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: of variants there in a big number in the division.
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: All right, exciting exciting stuff as a reminder. The Favorites
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