Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Is Trump's new 'Truth API' insider trading
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Imagine you are about to be offered the opportunity of
- 0:03Speaker 1: a lifetime. You get the privilege of peeking over Donald
- 0:06Speaker 1: Trump's shoulder as he types out stock market moving presidential
- 0:11Speaker 1: announcements like Iran's Ayatola has just been assassinated, or the
- 0:16Speaker 1: US is blockading the straight up four moves, or we're
- 0:19Speaker 1: jacking up tariffs on China so that you see these
- 0:23Speaker 1: announcements before the general public. But it'll cost you up
- 0:26Speaker 1: to one hundred thousand US dollars a month. Is that
- 0:30Speaker 1: ethical or never mind ethical? Is that even legal?
- 0:34Speaker 2: Trump Media and Technology Group has launched truth Api.
- 0:38Speaker 1: Fastest access to the president's post, to banks and some
- 0:42Speaker 1: other financial services firms.
- 0:43Speaker 2: Raising concerns of conflicts of interest, And of course, you know,
- 0:47Speaker 2: insider trading.
- 0:48Speaker 1: This is what everybody's asking now that one of Trump's
- 0:51Speaker 1: family businesses is apparently charging high volume stock traders for
- 0:56Speaker 1: early access to posts on truth social where Trump is
- 1:00Speaker 1: the most followed user. Let me try to tackle this
- 1:04Speaker 1: question of insider trading, because the answer isn't as straightforward
- 1:09Speaker 1: as you might think. But I'll also explain why I
- 1:12Speaker 1: think this question might miss the point entirely. Okay, so
- 1:21Speaker 1: the first thing to clear up here is what we
- 1:23Speaker 1: actually mean when we say early access to Trump's posts
- 1:26Speaker 1: on truth Social, Because if you only read the headlines
- 1:29Speaker 1: or even just heard me say it a moment ago,
- 1:32Speaker 1: it makes it sound like you can pay to see
- 1:34Speaker 1: the president's posts minutes or maybe even hours before they're
- 1:38Speaker 1: actually posted publicly. But no, what you're really paying for
- 1:43Speaker 1: is something more like seconds or even fractions of a second.
- 1:48Speaker 1: What Trump's company is calling truth Api is just offering
- 1:53Speaker 1: a way for people with money to plug in more
- 1:57Speaker 1: directly to truth Social, but to machine a new business
- 2:02Speaker 1: to business data feed with real time access to posts
- 2:06Speaker 1: from the highest ranking truth Social accounts, of which again
- 2:10Speaker 1: Trump is the highest of the high, promising to deliver
- 2:14Speaker 1: truth Social posts to our customers in milliseconds. So the
- 2:18Speaker 1: idea is, when Trump makes a post computers with this
- 2:22Speaker 1: API access that you can reportedly buy for somewhere between
- 2:25Speaker 1: sixty and one hundred thousand dollars a month, you think
- 2:28Speaker 1: of it like plugging right into truth Social servers. They
- 2:31Speaker 1: see the post almost instantaneously, unlike the rest of us
- 2:36Speaker 1: who are waiting for our Trump Truth Social feed to populate,
- 2:39Speaker 1: hitting the refresh button like a chump. So it's like
- 2:42Speaker 1: getting a front row seat as history is being typed.
- 2:46Speaker 1: Oh silly me. You can also use it to make
- 2:50Speaker 1: a ton of money, because who is this access really?
- 2:53Speaker 1: For high frequency and algorithmic trading firms that require a
- 2:58Speaker 1: low latency machine machine readable feed rather than manual tracking
- 3:03Speaker 1: translation computers that are smart enough to trade stock and
- 3:08Speaker 1: generate value without any human pushing any buttons. They're set
- 3:12Speaker 1: up to do it on their own, and they're fast.
- 3:15Speaker 2: The concept of algorithmic trading, which is basically computer based
- 3:19Speaker 2: trading where information is fee fed into an algorithm and
- 3:23Speaker 2: trades are executed based on that information, and so you
- 3:27Speaker 2: can react very quickly to new information, react instantaneously.
- 3:31Speaker 3: Let's just say there was an announcement of a new
- 3:34Speaker 3: tariff one hundred percent across the world. Everybody, everybody gets
- 3:36Speaker 3: into one hundred percent's hair. Well, I wouldn't like to
- 3:39Speaker 3: know that as fast as possible.
- 3:40Speaker 1: So to truth socials credit, they're pretty upfront about what
- 3:44Speaker 1: they're doing here. They're giving preferential access to Trump's posts
- 3:49Speaker 1: as president so that people who trade stocks where milliseconds
- 3:53Speaker 1: matter can get market moving information just a hair faster
- 3:58Speaker 1: than everybody else and there's a lot of market moving
- 4:00Speaker 1: information out there. Remember one of the posts I showed
- 4:03Speaker 1: you at the start more than a year ago, when
- 4:05Speaker 1: Trump announced a whopping one hundred and twenty five percent
- 4:07Speaker 1: tariff on China. Well, in that same post, he also
- 4:11Speaker 1: announced a pause on tariffs on much of the rest
- 4:14Speaker 1: of the world. That sense stock markets shooting up, And
- 4:18Speaker 1: if you were paying attention to Trump's feed, just hours
- 4:20Speaker 1: before that, he literally posted, this is a great time
- 4:25Speaker 1: to buy. He was right, and even as recently as
- 4:29Speaker 1: this weekend when the new API kicked in that same night.
- 4:33Speaker 1: In fact, this past Saturday, Trump very suddenly announced a
- 4:37Speaker 1: reverse course on an impending strike on Iran, saying the
- 4:40Speaker 1: US was going to hold off any attack surprise. And
- 4:44Speaker 1: then come Monday, crude oil prices tumbled with this imminent
- 4:49Speaker 1: threat of escalation off the table.
- 4:52Speaker 2: You know, just a small advantage, a small you know,
- 4:54Speaker 2: millisecond time advantage can be very profitable if you can
- 4:57Speaker 2: get ahead of the news before or other people make trades.
- 5:01Speaker 1: So is this insider trading when a very privileged class
- 5:07Speaker 1: of people get early access to this kind of money
- 5:10Speaker 1: making information. I'll give you two answers. Yes, it might
- 5:15Speaker 1: be insider trading when you think about how insider trading
- 5:18Speaker 1: is defined in US securities law as buying or selling
- 5:22Speaker 1: stock based on non public information that's been misappropriated.
- 5:27Speaker 4: Donald Trump, the President of the United States, has access
- 5:30Speaker 4: to confidential, non public the United States government, information about
- 5:35Speaker 4: what the Trump administration is going to do and a
- 5:38Speaker 4: wide range of areas truth social By giving advanced access
- 5:43Speaker 4: to the president's post in return for a pay amount
- 5:46Speaker 4: of money could be in violation of Bettle insider trading law.
- 5:50Speaker 1: So this is arguably insider trading if you see this
- 5:54Speaker 1: as white house information being monetized and then only giving
- 5:58Speaker 1: certain people special access. Democrats are certainly trying to make
- 6:02Speaker 1: this case, writing directly to the Chair of the Securities
- 6:05Speaker 1: and Exchange Commission that truth Api undermines everyday investors and
- 6:09Speaker 1: the integrity of our markets, while urging the sec to
- 6:13Speaker 1: immediately open an investigation. But this is arguably not insider
- 6:20Speaker 1: trading if there were never any secrets to begin with.
- 6:23Speaker 1: After all, everything's public, from how the truth api works
- 6:28Speaker 1: to who can get access, even the information itself literally
- 6:33Speaker 1: posted from Trump's thumbs publicly to the platform. Surely people
- 6:38Speaker 1: should be allowed to pay for speed if they wanted,
- 6:42Speaker 1: like an airline selling priority boarding or a shipping company
- 6:47Speaker 1: selling same day delivery, what's the difference in truth socials defense,
- 6:57Speaker 1: I should say there's nothing inherently various about an API,
- 7:02Speaker 1: any major company with data that it wants people to
- 7:04Speaker 1: be able to use effectively PAS one. It's how Uber
- 7:08Speaker 1: can show you a map of your city through Google
- 7:10Speaker 1: Maps API, and how Expedia plugging into various airline APIs,
- 7:15Speaker 1: can show you so many deals at once in real time.
- 7:18Speaker 1: And I can't help but wonder whether this preferential access
- 7:23Speaker 1: upsets the overall market balance much less than you'd think,
- 7:28Speaker 1: because those companies that already have access to the best
- 7:33Speaker 1: data scrapers, the smartest algorithms, the fastest bots that can
- 7:38Speaker 1: automatically and instantaneously execute thousands of trades in the blink
- 7:42Speaker 1: of an eye, with or without truth API, they were
- 7:46Speaker 1: already faster than everybody else. In one way, truth API
- 7:50Speaker 1: is like hitting my minivan against an F one car
- 7:54Speaker 1: and then giving the F one car a headstart. I
- 7:57Speaker 1: have news for you, they were already winning the race.
- 7:59Speaker 1: You can't be more first place than first place. And
- 8:03Speaker 1: for most people, being beaten to the best stock price
- 8:07Speaker 1: by one millisecond or two might not make a difference.
- 8:12Speaker 1: Where it does make a difference, though, is within that
- 8:16Speaker 1: ultra high speed Formula one class of high frequency, high volume,
- 8:22Speaker 1: heavily automated trading. Within that tier, Truth Social is creating
- 8:28Speaker 1: two tiers of ultra high speed, those who pay for
- 8:32Speaker 1: that extra millisecond and those who don't. And like I said,
- 8:35Speaker 1: in that speed class, milliseconds do matter if you can
- 8:38Speaker 1: flip a few thousand stocks in that time over your
- 8:41Speaker 1: next closest competitor. So who within that tier could afford
- 8:46Speaker 1: not to pay.
- 8:47Speaker 3: The ones who are the best of the best, and
- 8:48Speaker 3: the names that people see often see in the press,
- 8:51Speaker 3: they will have no choice but to buy that because
- 8:53Speaker 3: if they don't, their competitor will access the information sooner
- 8:57Speaker 3: than they will.
- 8:58Speaker 1: Even Trump's company itself acknowledge this. We are going to
- 9:01Speaker 1: create a lot of friction for those folks that aren't
- 9:04Speaker 1: coming to us directly. That's the interim CEO talking, arguing
- 9:08Speaker 1: the API will be significantly faster than scraping. And this
- 9:13Speaker 1: is where we come across what I think most experts
- 9:15Speaker 1: agree is the most problematic part of this truth Social API.
- 9:20Speaker 1: Fascinating because truth Social isn't just a social media site.
- 9:26Speaker 1: It is one of the US president's primary channels for
- 9:29Speaker 1: announcing the direction of US policy, which countries the US
- 9:33Speaker 1: will work with, even which countries the US is planning
- 9:36Speaker 1: to bomb. And this is a platform in which Donald
- 9:40Speaker 1: Trump has a clear financial stake. When I read through
- 9:44Speaker 1: Trump's financial disclosure for twenty twenty five, I can see
- 9:48Speaker 1: on this line of his assets and income Trump Media
- 9:51Speaker 1: and Technology Group, that's the company that controls truth Social
- 9:54Speaker 1: Trump owns more than one hundred and fourteen million shares
- 9:58Speaker 1: worth over fifty million dollar. This is about forty one
- 10:02Speaker 1: percent of the company. And this creates an ethical dilemma
- 10:06Speaker 1: like a bouncer holding a tip jar, because it is
- 10:10Speaker 1: no longer clear whether the president's announcements, his policies, even
- 10:15Speaker 1: his choices about how to communicate with Americans, whether they
- 10:20Speaker 1: are driven purely by civic duty or by money. What
- 10:25Speaker 1: is true in an absolute sense is that Trump is
- 10:29Speaker 1: more incentivized now to make decisions that make him money,
- 10:33Speaker 1: to generate value for those high powered stock traders who
- 10:37Speaker 1: have lined up to pay his family business one hundred
- 10:40Speaker 1: thousand dollars a month for preferential access to valuable information.
- 10:44Speaker 1: So when Trump posts We're close to a deal with Iran,
- 10:50Speaker 1: the US maybe, but Trump also knows there's money to
- 10:54Speaker 1: be made just by saying the words, whether they're true
- 10:58Speaker 1: or not.
- 10:58Speaker 4: I'm very much helping. The president will decide that his
- 11:02Speaker 4: priority for the remainder of his term is the interests
- 11:05Speaker 4: of the United States of America, not all his own
- 11:08Speaker 4: personal financial interests, or the financial interests or truth Social
- 11:11Speaker 4: or the other companies he owns.
- 11:13Speaker 1: And this is an open question that will linger long
- 11:16Speaker 1: after the sec or anyone decides whether truth API is
- 11:21Speaker 1: even legal to begin with.