Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / US Jobs Data *Just* Out // Stock Rally at Risk + Stock Market News 02 April 2024

Transcript

US Jobs Data *Just* Out // Stock Rally at Risk + Stock Market News 02 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: And good morning to you.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: It's not often that we have a pre-market as red as this one, unless it's Christmas.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand what that actually means.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: So you're the best informed investor out there.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: We don't just sit here and freak out.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: We can actually do something about it.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: We can find some opportunities to make money, and I want to run you through what caused it.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: What's happening today?
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Jobs are dead, are today, as well as the other key facts that will shape your portfolio for today and possibly for the rest of the year.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: So smash the.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: You know what, if you haven't already.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: And remember in 12 hours actually in 11 hours.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Even more exciting I'm running a live trading training where I will teach about 500 happy souls how we do this, and by this I mean how last year, we made 105% return on capital employed, the year before 126% return on capital employed and how we do that by implementing a very simplistic three-step trading system that we then automate, so we can do this in a couple of hours a week.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Super beginner-friendly, I assume, is zero knowledge.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: All you got to do is go to felixfriendsorg slash webinar and grab yourself a seat.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: We're going to have some fun over there.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Links also down below in the description, if you haven't seen it already, I've also put together for you, not necessarily in preparation or this.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: You don't actually need to know anything to join me.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: But for those of you who want to really understand, if you want to maybe get into trading, like, first thing to understand is stock charts right, really understand it.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: So, linked also down below, felixfriendsorg slash code If you download that, go there.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: You're going to get a 25 page walkthrough of really the important steps of how I look at charts.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: So it's completely free of charge.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Link is again down below.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Now, yesterday was an interesting day, wasn't it?
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Manufacturing data came in better than expected and therefore the market's thinking well.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: With better manufacturing data, the economy is stronger, the Fed can't cut rates as quickly and the PMI came in at 50, which means we're no longer in a manufacturing recession Below 50 is recession and new orders coming in stronger and manufacturing prices coming in higher, which, of course, is inflationary.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Just don't mention that word around the Fed.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Apparently, jerome Powell has got a short fuse on that particular term because he said it was transitory, didn't he?
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing a pickup in employment.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: We're seeing a pickup in orders.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: We're seeing a pickup in prices.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: None of that is really what the market wants to hear.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: And you might be thinking, hang on, surely we don't want a recession?
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: No, no, we want that sort of sweet spot, soft landing, where nothing is very exciting and everything is flattish, which, of course, is only something you get in La La Land.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: But that's what the market's hoping for.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: We also had this overnight Israel struck the Iranian embassy in Damascus, syria, killing apparently 11 Iranians, including some senior generals, and you can imagine that Iran isn't particularly thrilled about it.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised the Canadians are silent, because the Canadian embassy is literally right next door to it, but they didn't say a word and vowing revenge.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: And what happens, therefore?
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Well, the oil price goes up, and the oil price has gone up back over $85 here.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: And what does that do?
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: It's the forbidden word that you can't mention around Fed people.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: It's inflationary right, and it might get us back into the peak of the market here, where we were at $92 possibly.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: So it looks very, very bullish on oil right now.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: If you are into oil trading the orange one we must, of course, mention him.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: He paid 175 million bond in cash.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Well, sort of, he doesn't.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: They're actually their bond agent that do that for you.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Well, sort of he doesn't.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: They're actually, they're a bond agent that do that for you, but you obviously have to give them security in some form.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: And that's the reduced bond down from 454 million to 170 million.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I still think this New York trial case is complete, utter bollocks.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: But I know some of you have stronger political opinions, might disagree with you and I don't care about the politics.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying property developers will always go to the bank and say my property is worth X, the bank will say it's worth Y and you meet somewhere in the middle.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: That's just the way it works.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: In fact, when you buy a house, you do the same thing, right?
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I go say the house is worth 10 million, the bank says it's worth eight and I say well, shall we meet at the life jobs data?
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Here, the amount of chatter on earnings calls, which some poor soul well, hopefully, it's AI nowadays collates.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: How often is the word job cuts mentioned?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: And you can see that starting to pick up again.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: We're still at moderately low levels historically In 2020 here, this was peak of 2020.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: We obviously had much, much higher levels, as we were in last year in March.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: This was 23.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: So heading up, but still pretty modest.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Pretty modest, and in fact it could actually tick up a bit.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: The market would quite like it.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Higher margins and higher unemployment means Fed cuts faster, right?
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of where we're stuck this morning.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Now make sure you join me for the live webinar in 11 hours, as I say, and let's have a look at the data.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Oh, it comes in an hour.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: All right, I thought it was going to come in right now, but look, we've got Indian HSBV manufacturing index and we've got Australian data, spanish data, french data good God, german data, even worse.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, so we have an hour actually till that jobs data comes out.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so watch out for that.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: The job openings is actually the most important data, I think, this week.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Because companies it takes time to fire people.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Because companies it takes time to fire people Very, very quick to take the job offer or the advert off your website.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: And the second piece of data which I think is always underrated is job quits.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Now, job quits is what?
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: How many people are quitting their job?
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: When do people quit their job?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: When they think it's very easy to get a new job.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: So it's a bit of data that's kind of just gives you a feel of how are employees feeling out there.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Do they think they can get a 12% pay rise by just going across the road, or are they thinking, nah, I think I'll stay put for a little bit.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: So you want low job quits and you want low job openings.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Actually, that's really what we want.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: It's kind of funny, isn't it?
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we want both numbers to be below expectation, so watch out for those bits of data there.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Anthony Noto has joined us.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: You bought her some sofa today.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I hope you didn't present it quite the way you presented here in the chat, anthony Noto, otherwise those wedding bells may never ring.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Premarket Google down 1.3%.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Tesla down 6.3%.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I take it that Tesla delivery numbers have come out.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Sales of vehicles made in China saw a modest increase in March, offering a glimmer of hope for the global numbers.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Do you own?
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Tuesday before the market opens?
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: A glimmer of hope for the global numbers Due on Tuesday before the market opens, let's have a look at the global numbers.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Okay, we don't know.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Does anybody have the global numbers yet?
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: They're meant to be out.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: On Twitter I follow some Tesla-rati Alamtea, elon.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: We live on stolen land, mammals from dinosaurs.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's have a look at Tesla.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Okay, tesla is falling hard.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Somebody have the Tesla data.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Tesla delivered 386,000 cars in Q1, massively missing estimates of 449.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Ouch, yeah, 386.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's a big miss, isn't it?
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: 50,000 cars, that's a great little clip.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: That's a great little clip.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so Tesla, boom, indeed.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So Tesla.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: So where are we going to go with Tesla?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Then let's have a look.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: We are trading down here.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: So the low of 14th of March is still in place.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Just, you drop below that, you also fall below the lower end of that trading range and then you have a bit of support here at the 152.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see 152 here in the next couple of days.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: That's my view on that, and you know what I'm going to love it.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I would love to buy some Tesla at like 110, wouldn't you?
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, isn't it wonderful when good things are cheap?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: I think it's wonderful, but this will also drag down the whole EV sector.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: By the way, you guys are agreeing Tesla right?
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Are you guys agreeing Tesla right?
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: So far, 699.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Really, we are 3% down, ouch.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: So, again, I think that's probably interest rate concerns.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Lower interest rates would benefit them.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: They've also announced their earnings on the 29th of the month, I think.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So put that in your calendar and cancel everything else that day, clearly the most important event of the day.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing a little bit of a.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: You know everyone's feeling a little bearish this morning.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Palantir down 3% here below the recent support, below yeah, 2212.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: So that's looking not good.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Good, sorry to say I I think you've broken through all the support here.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Let's have a quick look where the remaining supports lies from.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Maybe the options market is our savior here and this is options watch.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: If you're not on there already, get yourself a free 30-day trial links, probably down below options watchio.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look for the week.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: So what do I look at?
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: See that red bar here 23?
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: That was the support.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Right, there's a bit of 22, but not a lot.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: So we've broken through that.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: That's not good For the month.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Can't really make out any support.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, 22.50.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: What about going into the end of May, 22.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: So there's a bit of hope left at 22.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: But yeah, 23,000.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: There's a bit of support at 22 still, but we're trading right now at 2286.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: So there is a chance that we might not drop much lower here, because between 22 and 23, we have pretty good support levels.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: But if you close where we are right now, at the end of the day, then I think we're going to get lower.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: That will be my view on that in the short term.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Tamir, maybe you should take a 30-day trial.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Data is your friend, my friend.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Data is always your friend.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: What is Andy Walton's question?
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I didn't see it.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: What happened to PayPal in the last two days?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: And his Citigroup are hidden in plain sight.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Gem.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: I'm never a fan of banks, don't understand them.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: I don't think the people running them understand them.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: So they're sacking people.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I think that's what's going on over there.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know why we've got the Canadian hedged version up, but that's really all they're doing.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: They're sacking people.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if that's really a great reason to buy Citi.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I don't understand their business.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Paypal down here 1.92% it.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: I don't understand their business.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Paypal down here 1.92% it's just it's been going up a lot.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: I mean stocks don't go move up in straight lines, right.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: So I don't think.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Basically, this resistance line here from 68 there, that peak, right, that's always a resistance.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: A peak above is always a resistance.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: That was a little too much.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: We hit it, we hit our head, we went out and now we're going down a little bit, and the question is like where do we bounce off again?
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: We're trading right now down, with the whole market here at 63.80, which provides a little bit of support.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: The 50 day moving average line should provide some pretty decent support around 62.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: And we can also have a look in Options, watch, paypal, and yeah, we're really breaking down here.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: 66 was the support and, and obviously we're well, well below that.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: What about for a month?
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Okay, there's a lot more here at 60, 60 to 50 and 60.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: They will again both be supportive, yeah, and then we move lower as we go further out.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Watch for 60 to 50 and then 60.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: 60 to 50 might also coincide with the 50-day moving average or thereabouts within the next two days or so.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: This is what I look at as support.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Can you check AAP?
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Nice rally Leveling off a bit, though, isn't it?
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: It of losing its momentum there, with no apparent real resistance other than its own resistance?
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: I think just that.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Where did my volume go?
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Someone stole my volume.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we just Look.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: That's what I thought Less volume going sideways-ish.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: So it's just People are not that excited about the stock at $85.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: That's basically what it's saying.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: I thought Less volume going sideways-ish.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: So it's just people are not that excited about the stock at $85.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: That's basically what it's saying to you.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: So it might consolidate, could go somewhat a bit higher, but at the moment this is looking kind of boringly range-bound.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Juan, what's the difference between a short squeeze and a gamma squeeze?
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Short squeeze is caused by stocks.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: So just people shorted the stock and then say the people shorted the stock here and then it goes up.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: What happens?
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Well, those guys who shorted, they have huge losses in their books and they have to close out those losses because otherwise they go bust.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: How do they close it out?
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: They buy the stock.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: So the stock goes up more.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: That's a short squeeze.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: A gamma squeeze is caused by options.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: It's a little more complicated.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: It's basically caused by, like, when you buy an option, you think, oh, I'm buying it from you.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Know, logan?
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: No, you're probably not.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: You're probably buying it from a market maker who sits on a trading floor somewhere and he creates the option and sells it to you and that market maker will hedge his position by buying the shares.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: So he's got no exposure because his short call option, say, he's now long 100 shares.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: So, depending on which way the market goes, this guy is forced to buy more shares, so you can squeeze, in a sense, the market up through that mechanism, which is what I was talking about in the NVIDIA video I made about a week ago.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: So that's basically, I think, what NVIDIA is playing with.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: How big is the impact of the options by support resistance?
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: The more volume there is, I mean, the more options there are, the bigger the impact, and so what I would look at is look what's the volume yeah, 87,000 trades in a day.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: So support here 12,000, it's decent, it's not huge.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: If it was bigger, if it was 30,000 or something like that, then that would have obviously a bigger impact.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: So it depends a little bit on how big it is really.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: That's really what matters how big is the position that's sitting at that level and therefore, how big will that impact be?
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: We are working on making this a little easier to understand and giving you lines on the chart which will actually show you exactly the positioning, and I think that will be very useful.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: So that's coming up at some point in the future.