Latest / The President's Daily Brief / PDB Afternoon Bulletin | September 8th, 2026: Iran’s Biggest Source of Cash Is About To Run Out & Russia’s Renewed Kyiv Strikes

Transcript

PDB Afternoon Bulletin | September 8th, 2026: Iran’s Biggest Source of Cash Is About To Run Out & Russia’s Renewed Kyiv Strikes · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:12
  It's Tuesday,
• 0:12
  the 8th of September.
• 0:14
  Welcome to the PDB
• 0:15
  afternoon bulletin.
• 0:16
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 0:17
  your eyes and ears
• 0:18
  on the world stage.
• 0:19
  Oh,
• 0:20
  and by the way,
• 0:21
  congratulations to Ole Miss.
• 0:22
  They came out on top the other day against Louisville.
• 0:25
  Bit of a nail biter,
• 0:26
  but,
• 0:27
  but it's in the win column.
• 0:29
  Alright,
• 0:29
  let's get briefed.
• 0:30
  First up,
• 0:31
  the US blockade of Iranian ports continues to impact Iran's economy,
• 0:35
  and new shipping data suggests the noose
• 0:38
  is tightening on the regime's oil industry.
• 0:41
  Later in the show,
• 0:42
  Russia pounds Kiev with missiles and drones
• 0:44
  immediately after US envoys depart the region,
• 0:47
  killing civilians and damaging buildings across the capital.
• 0:51
  But first,
• 0:51
  today's afternoon spotlight.
• 0:54
  The US blockade of Iran may be approaching a critical point.
• 0:57
  New shipping data shows Tehran's oil exports
• 1:00
  have been effectively trapped inside the Persian Gulf
• 1:03
  for nearly 2 months,
• 1:05
  and the massive stockpile of crude oil that
• 1:07
  Iran had positioned overseas to keep the money flowing.
• 1:10
  Well,
• 1:11
  that's rapidly running out.
• 1:13
  According to new reporting from The Wall Street Journal.
• 1:15
  No Iranian crude has successfully crossed the US blockade
• 1:19
  since it was reinstated back in mid-July.
• 1:22
  Iran is still producing oil,
• 1:24
  and it's still loading some of that oil onto tankers inside the Persian Gulf,
• 1:28
  but those newly loaded barrels are not reaching customers.
• 1:32
  So how has Tehran continued selling roughly a million barrels of oil a day?
• 1:37
  Despite nearly two months of blockade,
• 1:39
  well,
• 1:40
  the answer is Iran actually prepared
• 1:42
  for this blockade scenario
• 1:44
  when diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran produced a
• 1:47
  temporary easing of the blockade back in June.
• 1:50
  You remember that
• 1:51
  Iran moved enormous quantities of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf.
• 1:56
  By mid-July,
• 1:57
  roughly 90 million barrels of Iranian oil
• 1:59
  were already sitting aboard vessels beyond the blockade
• 2:03
  positioned for eventual delivery.
• 2:05
  Mostly to buyers in China,
• 2:07
  it amounted to a massive floating reserve.
• 2:10
  Once Washington resumed the blockade,
• 2:13
  Iran could still sell that oil that had been positioned beyond the strait.
• 2:17
  But that reserve is now reportedly running out.
• 2:21
  Kepler estimates the volume has fallen from roughly 90 million barrels in mid-July
• 2:25
  to around 29 million today.
• 2:28
  And at the current rate of delivery,
• 2:29
  that remaining supply
• 2:31
  could be exhausted by the middle of October.
• 2:33
  But even after that prepositioned oil is gone,
• 2:36
  payments for previously delivered cargoes could continue
• 2:39
  reaching Tehran for another couple of months.
• 2:42
  However,
• 2:43
  according to the journal,
• 2:44
  those payments could largely dry up by mid-December.
• 2:48
  For months,
• 2:49
  Iran has essentially been living off oil that it
• 2:51
  managed to get out before Washington decided the ceasefire or
• 2:55
  memorandum of understanding or temporary pause or whatever it was called
• 2:58
  wasn't working.
• 3:00
  As a reminder,
• 3:00
  before the war,
• 3:01
  Iran was exporting close to 2 million barrels of crude every day.
• 3:05
  In August it loaded an average of just 255,000 barrels a day
• 3:10
  onto vessels inside the Gulf,
• 3:12
  an 85% decline from the average
• 3:15
  earlier this year.
• 3:16
  And again,
• 3:17
  those newly loaded barrels remain trapped behind the blockade.
• 3:21
  Now,
• 3:21
  as alternatives go,
• 3:22
  moving the oil over land,
• 3:24
  well,
• 3:24
  that offers very little relief.
• 3:26
  Analysts estimate that Iran could transport no more
• 3:29
  than about 40,000 barrels a day by truck.
• 3:32
  Rail capacity is also limited in part because Iran
• 3:35
  lacks enough specialized railcars designed to carry crude oil,
• 3:39
  and the longer that oil remains trapped inside Iran,
• 3:42
  the more difficult it becomes to store
• 3:44
  because you run out of storage space.
• 3:47
  There are indications that Iran is already cutting production
• 3:50
  to prevent the storage facilities from filling up,
• 3:53
  and the squeeze is extending beyond just crude.
• 3:56
  Iran's petrochemical industry is the country's second
• 3:58
  largest source of foreign currency after oil.
• 4:01
  According to Kepler,
• 4:02
  petrochemical loadings by August
• 4:04
  had fallen roughly 2/3 from levels seen earlier this year.
• 4:08
  Iran is also facing trouble with its most important customer.
• 4:12
  For years,
• 4:13
  Chinese refiners have provided Tehran with a critical lifeline,
• 4:16
  buying sanctioned crude that many other countries wouldn't touch.
• 4:20
  But Gulf energy officials tell the Journal that some Chinese
• 4:23
  buyers are now shifting toward oil from Saudi Arabia,
• 4:26
  Iraq,
• 4:26
  and the UAE.
• 4:28
  In some cases,
• 4:29
  Iranian crude,
• 4:30
  which traditionally sold at a discount because of the US sanctions,
• 4:34
  is now actually more expensive for refiners because
• 4:37
  obtaining it has become so difficult.
• 4:40
  That's adding even more pressure to an
• 4:41
  Iranian economy that's already under enormous strain.
• 4:45
  Oil revenue typically provides roughly 1/3 of the Iranian government's budget
• 4:50
  and supplies Tehran
• 4:51
  with the foreign currency that it needs to
• 4:53
  pay for imports and to support their currency,
• 4:56
  the rial.
• 4:57
  As those dollars disappear,
• 4:59
  Iran has less ability to prop up its currency,
• 5:02
  and as the rial weakens,
• 5:03
  imported food,
• 5:04
  machinery,
• 5:05
  and raw materials become more expensive,
• 5:07
  pushing inflation even higher.
• 5:10
  Official inflation is already running above 80% year over year,
• 5:13
  according to the journal,
• 5:15
  while the International Monetary Fund expects Iran's economy to contract
• 5:19
  some 5.4% this year.
• 5:22
  The US Treasury says Iran's armed forces,
• 5:25
  including the Revolutionary Guard Corps,
• 5:27
  the IRGC,
• 5:28
  Rely on dedicated companies and shadow fleet networks
• 5:32
  to sell crude and generate additional revenue for military operations.
• 5:36
  The strategy from Washington is to choke off enough of that revenue
• 5:40
  that Tehran can no longer finance its government,
• 5:43
  support its military,
• 5:44
  and keep its economy functioning
• 5:46
  without facing increasingly difficult choices.
• 5:49
  And there is growing evidence that the economic pressure is taking a toll.
• 5:53
  Of course,
• 5:54
  whether that changes Tehran's behavior is another matter.
• 5:57
  Analysts and Gulf officials tell the Journal that they see
• 6:00
  little evidence that the regime is preparing to capitulate.
• 6:03
  In fact,
• 6:04
  Iran appears to be increasing support for its Houthi allies in Yemen
• 6:08
  even as pressure builds at home.
• 6:10
  And this weekend,
• 6:11
  Tehran directly targeted American warships
• 6:14
  before the US responded by striking three Iranian oil tankers.
• 6:19
  Coming up next,
• 6:20
  in a move that
• 6:21
  may shock only the most hopeful or naive believers in the power of diplomacy,
• 6:26
  Putin had barely waved goodbye to US envoys before ordering
• 6:30
  another massive barrage of missiles and drones on Kiev.
• 6:33
  You know,
• 6:34
  I'm starting to think that he's not really interested in a peaceful resolution.
• 6:39
  I'll be right back.
• 6:41
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• 6:42
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• 7:42
  Hey,
• 7:43
  Mike Baker here.
• 7:44
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• 8:47
  Welcome back to the PDB
• 8:49
  afternoon bulletin.
• 8:50
  The Trump administration spent the weekend trying to
• 8:53
  move Russia and Ukraine closer to another round of
• 8:56
  U.S.mediated talks,
• 8:58
  but by Tuesday morning,
• 8:59
  Moscow was once again pounding Kiev with missiles and drones.
• 9:02
  Russia's latest barrage killed at least 3 people
• 9:05
  and wounded 19 others across the Ukrainian capital.
• 9:08
  Fires broke out in several districts,
• 9:10
  damaging at least 14 high-rise buildings along with a school,
• 9:13
  a clinic,
• 9:14
  warehouses,
• 9:15
  and several other sites.
• 9:16
  The European Union's ambassador to Ukraine described the scene pretty bluntly,
• 9:20
  saying,
• 9:21
  quote,
• 9:21
  Kiev was exploding and burning this morning.
• 9:24
  A Russian drone also partially destroyed the
• 9:26
  building of a Ukrainian television channel,
• 9:28
  injuring 5 people.
• 9:30
  As previously discussed here on the PDB,
• 9:33
  Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop striking each other's capitals for 3 days
• 9:38
  while US peace envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff
• 9:41
  traveled between Moscow and Kiev in
• 9:44
  the Trump administration's latest attempt to restart negotiations.
• 9:48
  Those visits didn't produce a breakthrough.
• 9:50
  That's possibly an
• 9:51
  understatement on my part,
• 9:53
  but we are getting a clear sense of what came out of them.
• 9:56
  The Americans spent more than 3 hours behind
• 9:58
  closed doors with Russian President Putin in Moscow.
• 10:02
  Afterward,
• 10:02
  Witkoff said they had heard
• 10:04
  new ideas.
• 10:05
  Oh,
• 10:05
  how about that,
• 10:05
  from the Russian side,
• 10:07
  though he didn't reveal what those ideas were.
• 10:10
  The Kremlin also left the door open to another round of talks.
• 10:14
  Moscow said it wasn't ruling out
• 10:15
  restarting three-way negotiations between Russia,
• 10:18
  Ukraine,
• 10:19
  and the US.
• 10:20
  Witkoff later said the Americans had made
• 10:22
  a lot of progress in Moscow,
• 10:24
  and that he was very encouraged by the discussions that
• 10:28
  followed with the Ukrainian team in Kiev.
• 10:30
  Is there anybody more hopeful
• 10:31
  than an envoy?
• 10:33
  Zelensky said those conversations included the possibility of
• 10:36
  US and European security guarantees for Ukraine,
• 10:39
  economic guarantees,
• 10:40
  and a post-war
• 10:42
  prosperity plan.
• 10:43
  But less than 48 hours after the American envoys left Kiev,
• 10:47
  Russian missiles and drones were once again flying over the Ukrainian capital.
• 10:51
  So much for
• 10:52
  a lot of progress in Moscow.
• 10:55
  And Kiev wasn't the only target.
• 10:56
  Russia attacked 8 other regions Tuesday.
• 10:59
  In the northern Sumi region,
• 11:00
  close to 100 people were evacuated
• 11:02
  after Russian drones struck a train.
• 11:05
  Another commuter train was also hit,
• 11:06
  with
• 11:07
  some passengers wounded by shrapnel.
• 11:09
  Farther south,
• 11:10
  another Russian drone attack hit a passenger train in Zabrizia,
• 11:14
  killing a railway worker in what emergency
• 11:16
  officials described as a double tab strike.
• 11:19
  Meaning a second drone hit after the initial attack,
• 11:22
  targeting the first responders
• 11:24
  to the initial hit
• 11:25
  near Odessa.
• 11:26
  Another attack hit a market,
• 11:28
  wounding 3 people.
• 11:29
  Russia,
• 11:30
  for its part,
• 11:31
  says it was targeting military and logistical facilities
• 11:34
  like markets
• 11:35
  and commuter trains.
• 11:37
  But the barrage also underscored a problem that
• 11:39
  Kiev's been warning its allies about for months.
• 11:42
  Ukraine.
• 11:43
  As has been reported,
• 11:44
  is running critically low on the interceptors that it needs
• 11:47
  to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles.
• 11:50
  Zelensky had raised that problem with Trump's envoys just two days earlier
• 11:54
  discussing additional air defense supplies and energy support
• 11:57
  as Ukraine prepares for another winter
• 12:00
  in which Russia is expected to target the country's power grid.
• 12:04
  And that my friends,
• 12:05
  is the PDB
• 12:06
  afternoon bulletin for Tuesday,
• 12:08
  the 8th of September.
• 12:09
  Now,
• 12:09
  if you have any questions or comments,
• 12:11
  just reach out to me at PDB@firstv.com.
• 12:15
  And to listen to the show ad-free,
• 12:16
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• 12:18
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• 12:21
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• 12:24
  I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow.
• 12:26
  Until then,
• 12:27
  stay informed,
• 12:28
  stay safe,
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