Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC DFS Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

Transcript

UFC DFS Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems go. Clear for liftoff. What is going on, everybody?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday. Recording MMA show a day early. But yeah,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: we got 12 fights this week at the Apex, 5 p.m.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Eastern Standard Time. Coming off a great UFC 333 event.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: A lot of solid fights there. Usually we get a
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: little bit of a letdown the week after. Yeah, I
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: would say name value-wise, kind of a little bit of
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: a letdown. But DFS, I think it's, I mean, it's
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: a 12-fight card. It's a 12 fights, not nearly as
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: good as 13 or 14. Fingers crossed we keep all 12,
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: but only one favorite, minus 350 or greater, which is nice.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: And as you can see, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: 9 of the 12 fights are expected to finish. So
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I'm expecting some violence. We also have two cheaper-priced fighters
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: in Moicano and Cody Durden, now the favorite. So I
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: think a pretty solid 12-fight DFS card. Prizes are solid,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: all things considering this time of the year with college football.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: and NFL going on, but bringing you in big Marley,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: how are we doing this weekend? Oh, can you hear me?
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, not too bad. Um, I think there's a lot of, uh, yeah,
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: I hear you. Can you hear me?
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: I got you. I got you.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: Oh, you don't hear me.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: I hear you. I hear you.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Hopefully everything will be okay.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Um, but yeah, I think there's a lot of fights
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: on this card that could score. Well, I think there's
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: a lot of fights that could go either way. I
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: haven't messed around with too many lineups, but I was
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: trying to build one earlier and I couldn't, I couldn't
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: knock out one that I really loved for like a
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: single entry type of lineup. So probably another one where
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: I'm throwing 20 into the pool and hoping that my
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: roster construction could just get me there.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes some sense. Three, five star fight or four,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: excuse me, four or five star fights for a big Marley.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Anytime you see that, that is usually a good sign
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: to two star fights. And I do agree with big
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Marley in the sense of, I think it's, A lot
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: of clear fights to target, but I do think there's
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: some fighters that are going to be relatively low owned
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: that I think we can get on to get a
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: little difference. Any rules? Are you going to have 100%
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: of the main events? Any other rules that you would
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: make on this slate? Any broad slate for you?
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: No, definitely no rule for me. I even thought about
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: making the main event four star just because there's so
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: many good fights on this card, but I just went
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: with four or five stars instead. I think those are
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: just going to be Popular but important fights to target.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: For sure. Yeah, I got really nothing more to add.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I just want to head on over to Ship a
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Nation real quick. If you are not a member, this
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: awesome new website we're looking at. See plans and pricing.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: If you are playing NFL, college football, NBA, combination, NHL,
• 3:17
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• 3:20
  Speaker 1: or Starter is definitely the best deal for you. SaberSim
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: and the Discord are included with both of them. If
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: you're just playing MMA, I mean, we've been going live,
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: it feels like, for like eight weeks, nine weeks in
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: a row. Definitely a great bank for your buck. Click
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: on MMA. Less than a dollar a day for our content.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Plenty more dollars if you do want to add SaberSim.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: It also only gets cheaper if you go to the
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: annual package. So we would love to have you and
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: definitely do get in the Discord. If you do join,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: look at that very handsome man right here with Big
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Marley in the middle. All right, let's head on over.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: To the stone, we are going bottom to top like always,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: at least bottom to top with how the stone shows it.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: And we have a great fight to target, as you
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: can see, a five-star fight for Big Marley. Zachary Reese,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: minus 350, which is second biggest favorite on the card,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: taking on Mickey Gall, plus 284. Minus 450 for this
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: fight to finish. Reese, minus 165 inside the distance. Gall,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: plus 275. Reese in round one, plus... Where is it?
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Plus 150. So I did want to note, though, on Tuesday,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: when I put all these odds up, this fight was
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: minus 600 to finish. Now it's minus 450, which is
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: a decent bit of money coming in on the over.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: We've also seen Zach Reiss take 30 cents since Tuesday.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I think Reiss will be one of the most popular
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: fighters on the slate. The mid-tier, like Nolan Moicano, and
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: I do think the Arosa fight gets a little bit,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: but I think Zachary Reiss is the most the highest
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: owned spend up. And the reason for that is second
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: biggest favorite at minus 350 in a fight. That's the
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: most likely to finish at minus 450 and best inside
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: the distance prop and round one prop on the slate.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: So everything leads to Zach Reese getting ownership. And when
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: you fight Mickey Gall, who's seven and seven, that is
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: also nice as well. I think Mickey Gall is an
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: elite tournament play though, for all those reasons. If he wins,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: he'll score well, good inside the distance prop for his
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: price and a lot of leverage off of Zach Reese.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: So Fire up Mickey Gall and Chalky teams. And, yeah,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: play Zach Reese and other teams and find ways to
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: get different. Five-star fight. I could not agree more.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Reese is my favorite play on the slate.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: If not, then he's one of them. We haven't seen
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: Gall in two years. We haven't seen him win in
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: five and a half years. And he's just a jujitsu
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: guy at this point. I don't think he has any
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: chance of striking with Reese. I don't think he's a
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: good wrestler either, but if he can get the fight
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: to the ground in the first round, I do think
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: he is live to choke out Reese. I just don't
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: think he is a good enough wrestler to consistently get
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: the fight to the ground. So if he's getting it
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: down early, but Reese is getting back up, I just
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: think it's going to be a wrap for Gall. If
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: the first three or four takedowns fail and he's stuck
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: on the feet, I think he's getting knocked out. So
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: I'm really high on Reese. I do think he gets
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: a first round knockout here. But I didn't put a
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: five-star on Reese and a one-star on Gall because I
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: am afraid of that round one submission from Gall. And
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: at 7,100, if he gets it, he's on the optimal lineup.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: So I'm just going to be really heavy on this fight.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to make a rule to be all in,
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: but I'm probably going to have at least 80% on
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: this fight with the majority of it being Reese lineups
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: and just a couple hedges with some hand-built Gall lineups
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: that I really like.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Gall, just looking at, His odds, plus 284. Plus
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: 284 is 26%. His ownership might be 13%. When you
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: look at it that way, and of his 26% in
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: win equity, I mean, what, 25% of it? He's going
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: to be optimal? It's hard for me to see cases
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: where he wins this fight and isn't optimal since he'll
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: need to get it on the mat.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: I also feel like Reese should be like minus 500.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: I think there's still value.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, very fair. When you handicap it different than the
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: odds present, that makes some sense. All right, we'll keep
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: it rolling to the next fight on the card from
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: one big favorite to another, the biggest favorite on the card.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: We are looking at, let me find the exact odds.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Where is it on fight odds? Oh, there it is.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: It's the first one. Lucia Zabova, minus 750, taking on
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Tanara Lisboa, plus 540, minus 170 for this fight to finish. Zabova,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: minus 145 inside the distance. Lizboa, plus 750. Zaboa is opened. Well,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: her round one prop opened plus 250, now plus 240.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: But her inside the distance prop opened minus 115, now
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: minus 145. It also only gets more appealing when you
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: see she is a primary grappler. So she very well
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: could get this fight on the mat pretty quickly and
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: then finish it from there. With that being said, She
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: could score 110. It's still not be enough. She's also 9,600.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: And on a card that with 12 fights, that's kind
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: of hard to get different. I think it's hard to
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: get different within those Lucia teams because that it's going
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: to be Lucia. Okay. Then it's going to be one
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: of Nolan Moicano. Okay. Then it's going to be one
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: of a Rosa or Lee. Then it's going to be
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: one of dirt and Osborne. And you're just going down
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: the same path as everyone. So I'm probably going to
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: be underweight. And I think I can go any Lucia
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: team down to Zachary Reese, any lose or, lucia team
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: go down to gene paul go down to jacoby smith
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: that's what i'll be looking to do on this slate
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: so i will be underweight and it's just pure game
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: theory 9600 is a lot of money and it's harder
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: to get different with her but i got no holes
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: to poke.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: Nah um it's really just the price is the the
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: hold of poke i do think she's going to be
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: better than uh lisboa everywhere. I think the striking, uh,
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: she could win that as well. I think she's got
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: decent kicks. She's got solid knees and the clinch Lisboa
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: is just a low volume Muay Thai striker. So I'm
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: going to X her out at 6,600. I think her
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: best days are even behind her, but I just don't
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: like the matchup for her. I do think Lucia can
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: hang on the feet, but I think she can dominate
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: the fight on the ground. I believe she's a two
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: division champion and another organization. Um, and, and Lisboa is
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: nothing special in the UFC so I do think this
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: is a setup fight for Lucia to win I do
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: think she probably scores about 100 points but I just
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: don't think 100 is going to cut it at 9600
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: so that's why it's two star for.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Me totally agree I would have it probably the exact
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: same and I am not playing Lisboa as well said
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: that last week about Kobe thickness though and he got
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: the win so it's MMA anything happens any day I
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: don't even think thickness was on the winner though when
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: it was all said and done I could be wrong
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: but I do not believe he was. All right, let's
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: keep it rolling. Next fight on the card, Pierre Rodriguez,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: minus 300, Talita Alencar, plus 247. Second most likely fight
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: to go the distance at minus 260. It's plus 200
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: to finish. Rodriguez plus 300 inside the distance. Alencar plus 550. No,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: thank you for me for this fight. With that being said,
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: both girls do average over three takedowns per 15 minutes.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: So do you see either one wrestling heavy and having success?
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: No, I think if Alan Carr wins, it would be
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: from her wrestling heavy. But Rodriguez is, I think she's
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: just as good of a wrestler. And I would guess
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: that she tries to keep the fight on the feet
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: and she's just a better boxer, the higher volume striker.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: I think she would win a decision. and just not
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: make the optimal lineup at $ 9, 200. So I think both
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: of them can wrestle. You've got to like both of
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: their stats on the stone. I just think it kind
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: of cancels out with Rodriguez knowing Alan Carr wants to
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: wrestle and knowing that she could too. I think if
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Rodriguez wants to just beat her to the punch, she
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: could do that, and that would be her chance to
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: score well. So for this fight, it would really just
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: be to get different on either side. I'm not really
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: clicking on either side of this fight when I'm starting
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: my hand builds. But if I end on either side
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: with my sixth piece, I'd be okay with it.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: That makes sense. I plan on fading it in 20
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: entry and below, and it's exactly what you said. The
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: two wins Rodriguez has where she scored over 100, she
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: had seven and eight takedowns. And I totally agree with you.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I think Rodriguez is a clear better striker, and the
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: wrestling's close. So Alan Carr's path is to wrestle. Rodriguez
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: knows that. Why would she even mess with the wrestling
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: exchanges herself? Stuff takedowns, keep it at distance. And get
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: a decision win. And that's not going to score enough
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: at 9,200. So she's very contrarian. If you want to
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: do that as a way to get different. I prefer
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: some other things. Like Mickey Gall. I think I actually
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: prefer Alan Carr over Rodriguez. If choosing. But I prefer
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Mickey Gall. We're going to get to Nick Klein after.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: If those guys win. They're going to outscore any Alan
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Carr win. I guess more than likely. The more I
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: think about it. Because Alan Carr should wrestle if she wins.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: I think she's fine. So maybe I'll... I'll circle back
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: and put her underweight instead of fade. But I still
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: don't love it at 7K just because I do think
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Rodriguez is better striker, and she very well might be
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: the better wrestler too, better everywhere. It is a big
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: step up in competition for Alan Carr. Not a fight
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I want exposure to or much of. All right, let's
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: get to the next fight on the card. Definitely a
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: good one. We got Joseph Crop Shot taking on Nick Klein.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Minus 325 Crop Shot. Plus 265 is Klein. Minus 325
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: for this fight to finish. Crop Shot minus 170 inside
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: the distance. Klein plus 375. Crop Shot round one plus
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: 165 after opening plus 185. Yeah, actually, now that the
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: over has taken money in the Zach Reese fight, Crop
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Shot has the best inside the distance prop on the slate.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: It makes sense. Klein has, what, five minutes of cardio? Maybe.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: And after that, he's just going to die. In that
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: first five minutes, though, he is definitely live and very
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: similar to Mickey Gall. If he wins, it's really hard
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: to see him not being optimal. So just looking at
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: his odds at, what, plus 265? Plus 265 is 27%.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: His ownership might be half of that. I will hope
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: one of Nick Klein and Mickey Gall win this week.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: And it kind of reminds me of that Alan Frye.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: I forget whatever card that was. When two of the
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: three did win as big dogs, you eliminate dupes, you
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: don't give up any upside, and you get some leverage
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: off the chalky guys. But good fight to target. What
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: do you think of it?
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a great fight to target. I
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: think it's Reese and Gall all over again, just a
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: less talented version of it. Klein is live to get
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: a first-round submission. I think he's an okay grappler. Look
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: at him, bro. Um, but I just don't think he's
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: very good at really anything other than submission grappling. And
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: after the first round, I think he does start to
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: gas and crop shot probably better everywhere. Um, if he
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: can just survive the early submission storm from Klein, I
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: think he could submit Klein in any round. I think
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: he could knock them out in any round as well. Uh,
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: it's just, I would rather pay $ 200 less for Reese
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: if I had to decide between the two. Uh, but
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: I liked both of them quite a bit. I would
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: say this was close to a five-star fight, but it
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: was really that comparison that made it a four-star fight.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I do think Reese will be actually a decent bit
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: higher on than Crop Shot as well. Maybe Zachary Reese 43%,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Crop Shot 27% or something. So just because it's 12
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: fights looking at ownership, I prefer Crop Shot, and then
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: it makes me prefer Mickey Gall over Klein, again, because
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: of the leverage it does give. Can you hear that
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: fan going in the background?
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: No.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Can't hear any squeaks or none? No. All right, good.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: This is turning into a sauna in here, which I like,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: but not when I'm trying to do a show and
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: I'm starting to sweat. Let's go to one of the
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: best fights on the card, real life and DFS. Jung
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Young Lee, minus 163. Julian Arosa, plus 139. Minus 400
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: for this fight to finish. Lee, minus 120 inside the distance. Arosa,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: plus 200. Looking at line movement in this one, Lee
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: opened minus 300. One minute later was minus 175. 20
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: minutes later was minus 200. And ever since then, Julian
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: Arosa has taken some money. Looks like a clear clash
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: of styles for me. Jung Yong Lee on the feet.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, Arosa's been knocked out, what, eight times? Absolute
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: no chin at this point. With that being said, Arosa,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: he's not bad on the feet. He just can't take
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: a punch, so he's going to get probably looking up
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: at the stars if it stays there. But man, if
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: La Rosa can wrestle, which I think there is a chance,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: he's very alive to win by submission. Open plus, of course,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: it's not going to load now. He's plus 350 by submission.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: I want to see what he opened at. I'll find
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: it at some point. But yeah, what are your thoughts?
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: I think a great fight to target. I prefer the
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: 1K savings with La Rosa. With that being said, though,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: I think his ownership will be higher, maybe by a
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: decent bit, which does make me have quite a bit
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: of interest in Lee as well. Phenomenal fight.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just think it's a great fight to target. Irosa,
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: just an awesome fighter for DFS because he's a high-volume
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: striker who can go a hard three rounds, and he's
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: also a better grappler who can submit anybody in the
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: first or even the third and score well with volume
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: leading up to it. So any Irosa scores live to
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: score well, I do think he could win this fight
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: on the feet. I think he could submit this guy
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: on the ground in any round as well. So I'm
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: definitely in on Arosa's skills. It's just his chin I
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: don't trust at all. He's been knocked out eight times already,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: and this is his retirement fight. Retirement fights rarely go well.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: So I just think this is kind of a setup
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: fight to get Lee looking good. I've heard a lot
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: of hype around this guy. We just haven't really seen
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: it yet, and I think he has the opportunity to
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: just blitz Erosa and get a first round knockout, possibly
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: a first minute knockout and break the slate. I wouldn't
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: put decent odds or anything on that, but I think
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: it's live. But if he can just connect one time,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Erosa's done, and then he's going to take off his gloves,
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: lay him in the cage. So I like both sides
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: of this fight. I picked Lee to win. So I
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: guess he is my preferred play if he's going to
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: be a decent amount lower owned and all the money's
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: coming in on Erosa. I just think the skills are
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: there for Erosa. The chin just isn't.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know how much the ownership gap will be,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: but I do expect Arosa to be higher on. That
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: 1K does go a long way, especially when you want
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: to play Zachary and other favorites. So I like both.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: If Arosa wins, which he has a good money line,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: it's hard to see him not scoring good. Lee, I
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: don't know, maybe he gets control in the first round,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: gets a second-round knockout. I think that's his path not
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: to be optimal, but he still would have a chance
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: at 8,600. Almost any knockout is going to come with
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: a knockdown, at least one. you would think. So I
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: think a phenomenal fight and I did find he opened
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: plus 400 by submission is now plus three 50. So
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: that was the line movement there. What's going on, Michael Peterson.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Great to see you. Uh, and yeah, it's the MMA show,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: but I know big Marley, big and the best ball streets.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: I hope you did not have too much Jalen. No,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: did you?
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: No, but I had too much of other people who
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: are dead for the year.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: So we'll see how it goes. Who's that?
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: Jaden Reed, my main one.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Is he confirmed for the year?
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's not good. All right. We'll keep
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: it rolling. No out for the year though, which is unfortunate.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Might save some Marvin Harrison, junior backers, tank Dell as well.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: Might get a little bigger role, but tank Dell, that's
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: who I want.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. We'll see. We'll see. Unfortunate for me. I think
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: he was, I mean, he was looking to be a
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: great late round pick. No, he's dead, but I shouldn't
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: say he's dead. He has a, he has a toe,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: but yeah.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Next fight on the card back to, Some MMA where, yeah,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: people don't die, but it's definitely possible. Rodrigo, Senzonato, minus 170,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: taking on Theodore. Bergen, plus 145. Another fight heavily favored
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: to finish at minus 325. Senzonato, plus 100 inside the distance. Bergen,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: plus 195. Just looking at it, it looks like a
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: clash of styles to a sense. Senzonato, I think if
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: someone's going to wrestle or get a submission, it is him.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: But he's also not dead on the feet as well.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Bergen will be trying to keep it on the feet though.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: And if it is, I think it's pretty close to
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: a coin flip fight. So another great mid-tier fight. If
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: you are fading the main event in the mid-tier 8,200 8K,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: I'm more than likely going to have one of Cincinnati Bergen,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: one of Lee Arosa, and probably one of O'Day Cody Durden.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: All fights right price in that range that have a
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: lot of upside. It's tough to fade the main event,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: but when I do, I want to find fights in
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: the range that can outscore it. I think those are
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: the main three fights. that don't break the bank that
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: are able to do so. So yeah, good fight to
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: target for sure. Minus 225 to finish solid inside the
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: distance props on both sides. Do you have a preferred side?
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: I assume you're going to play both.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: Um, I would say my preferred side is Berg, Bergeron
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: just because he's the underdog. I was going back and
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: forth on this fight. I just think it could play
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: out either way. It says an on does the BJJ
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: guy who, uh, who I would expect to want to
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: get it to the ground. He is live to, uh,
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: win by submission, or just win rounds and score decent
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: in a decision. But it would have to come through
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: the ground for him to score decent in a decision.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: I think he could be an aggressive striker, but Bergen's
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: just going to be taller, longer, more technical. I think
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: if he keeps his fight at range, he's going to
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: be the one winning minutes, and I think he's alive
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: for a knockout. So I just went back and forth
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: on picking a winner, so that always leads me to
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: the underdog. And I picked him by knockout, so I
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: guess at $ 7, 700, I definitely like Bergen more. if he's
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: going to get a knockout, but I do think he
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: could win a decision and score 50 points and just,
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: it wouldn't even matter that he won at all. So
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to be too high on either side.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: I just want to mix both of them in because
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: of any time a clash of styles fight is in play.
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: I just think both sides could score well. So I
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: like this fight in general, just don't like picking a
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: side or being heavy on.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: On either guy. You think it being minus three 25
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: to finish is too hot. you would price it like
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: minus 200 or something.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: Um, I mean, maybe, yeah, I would say I would
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: prefer it to be minus 200, but I could also
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: see either guy getting the finish. So I don't know.
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: I picked the knockout. So maybe I don't think that,
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Uh, how much do you think says the novel wrestles?
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: And do you think, uh, if he does, it comes early.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: I think he should wrestle and would wrestle a decent amount.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: I would give him a one and a half takedown prop. Yeah.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: One and a half takedown prop in a fight minus
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: three 25 to finish. when he's plus 100, is pretty good.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: I like this fight a good amount. Maybe it sounds
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: like a little more than you. I think Bergeron's my
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: preferred side, and it mainly comes down to he's 800 cheaper.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: So you got a dog or a cat or something
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: next to you? Yeah, my dog's in here. Your dog.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, licking himself now. His nails were making all this
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: noise earlier. Now he's over here licking.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: His arms and stuff. Do you just have one dog?
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: I have two, but the other one doesn't hang out
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: as much.
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: What's their names?
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: This one's Reggie. Reggie Miller, Reggie Wayne, Indiana guy.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: The other one's Rosie. Rosie. All right. Not Reggie Bush?
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: No, not Reggie Bush.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: All right. We'll keep it rolling. To the next fight
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: on the card. Appreciate everyone hanging out. All we ask
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: is the like button and subscribe button. Helps us out
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: a ton. Francis Marshall, minus 221, taking on Dakota Hope,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: plus 186, plus 105 for this fight to finish. Marshall,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: plus 180 inside the distance. Hope plus 425. I'll let
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: you break this one down first. Two stars and then
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: three stars on both of them. That shows me you
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: don't like this fight too much.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I really just don't care for this fight. I
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: think that it could be, especially in the first round,
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: I think it could kind of go either way. Hope
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: looks like the more aggressive, more dangerous striker in the first.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: I think he could also land some aggressive takedowns early.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: But Marshall is just the more proven, the more experienced,
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: the more technical fighter. fighter. I think really all around,
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: I think he's the more technical striker who I would trust, uh,
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: throughout the 15 minutes. And I also think over the
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: course of three rounds, he's going to be the better
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: wrestler and grappler. He just doesn't set a pace that
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: I would want to pay $ 8, 700 for, especially if he's
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: going to drop the first round, which I think he could.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: So I have it as a two star cause I
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: really don't care for either side. I do think Marshall
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: could mix in takedowns. I'd probably give him at least
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: a one and a half takedown prop to, uh, But $ 8, 700,
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, I just don't love that. And Hope, I
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: guess when I don't care for either side, I'd rather
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: go to the underdog here. So Hope would be my
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: preferred play if I had to choose between the two.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: But it's just one that I'm not looking to target
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: and more of a sixth spot in my lineup for
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: either guy.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: That's fair. I have a little more interest, I think,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: on both sides, mainly due to the fact of ownership
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: I expect to be low. And it doesn't break the bank.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: Like Marshall, I would probably set his takedown prop at two,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: maybe even two and a half. Why would he strike
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: in this matchup? He can, but Dakota Hope is the
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: clear striker or just a striker. And Marshall mixes in
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: his mixed martial arts a lot greater. So I think
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: a guy that has four, five, maybe even six takedown
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: upside at 8,700 and the cardio to hold that pace
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: is in play at relatively low ownership at 8,700. And
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: he's plus 180 inside the distance. That's 35.5% chance that
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: he wins this fight inside the distance. Looking at his
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: round one prop, plus 450 is not great. Excuse me.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Plus 450, that was 18%. And you might see Francis
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Marshall at 18% on this card. So, yeah, I think
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: a second round win could be optimal. Third round domination
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: through wrestling could be. And then if his ownership is
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: the same as his round one prop, I have interest
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: in Francis Marshall. I will be using him as a
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: way to get different. I'm also picking him to win.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: But Dakota Hope feels more like a floor play. To me,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: if he wins, it's probably stuff and takedowns, landing 95
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: significant strikes, probably winning at 29-28, score 72. 72 might
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: be enough, though. If you're not picking many dogs on
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: this card or many dogs don't win, Dakota Hope can
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: get there at 72. So I'm fine with him. I
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: do prefer Marshall for 1,200 more, though, hoping he wrestles,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: and I do expect him to wrestle. Next fight on
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: the card, five fights left. Gene Paul. Lebo's Neoni, minus 295.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Minus 295 for Gene Paul. Taking on Farman, Hassanov, plus 243.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: Gene Paul, or this fight's minus 215 to finish. Gene Paul,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: minus 145 inside the distance. Hassanov, plus 480. And there's
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: been a good amount of line movement in this one.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: Gene Paul, open, minus 175. Now minus 295. This fight, open,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: minus 180 to finish. Now minus 215. Gene Paul, open
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: plus 100 to finish, now minus 145. Everything is pointing
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: toward Gene Paul, and I agree. I think he's better
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: wherever the fight goes. Better cardio. I guess when they're fresh, maybe.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Hassanoff has better wrestling, but that's maybe. And LeBose Neone
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: is the better grappler. I think he can do whatever
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: he wants, and I think he's a very solid play
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: at 9K. Any Reese team can go LeBose Neone. Not
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: my favorite, probably, way to do it. Probably I would go,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: I can play both of them, or I can play
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Gall in the Bosniani, but I want to be overweight
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: at 9K. He is taking a lot of money, and
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: the under is taking money. I do not think Hasanov
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: has cardio to hold for 15 minutes. So, yeah, give
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: me Gene Paul. What about you?
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like JPL here. I just think he is,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: aside from wrestling, he's going to be better everywhere. Hasanov,
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: he scored 150 in his debut, landed, what, 17 takedowns
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: in that fight. But that's the style he's going to be,
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: I feel like, always. And that's what JPL is going
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: to have to deal with. It's going to be an
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: annoying fight where he probably is going to get taken
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: down a few times and have to get back up
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: and fight this guy's hands off of him again. It's
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: just going to be real annoying. That's the best way
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: to put it. And then I do think at some
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: point he's going to finish him. He's just going to
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: be the better striker. I think he's the way more
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: dangerous grappler of the two. And if Hasanov does start
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: to gas and JPL wants to mix in his own takedowns,
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: I think he could probably do that as well. JPL
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: is my preferred play as well. But if Hassanov is
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: going to win, it's going to be 8 plus, 10
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: plus takedowns, 10 minutes of top control time. It's going
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: to score well. I just don't think this is the
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: matchup for that style to really work.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, totally agree. I'm hoping people look at the game
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: log and he comes in a little over-owned. But you
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: can never cross off a fighter like Hassanov because if
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: he wins, he's almost surely optimal at 7,200. There's just
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: a lot of money going against him. I do not
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: think he will win. Let's go to the next fight,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: the most likely fight to go the distance on the card.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: We got Luana Santos taking on Yana Santos. Minus 325
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: for this fight to go the distance. Luana plus 300
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: inside the distance. Yana plus 800. We're talking another clash
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: of styles. Luana, the wrestler. Yana, the striker. Yeah, take
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: it away. Sam Santos wins. I was going to say
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: got to win, but I say that and it'll be
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: a draw.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely like Santos here. But no, I would
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: say it's favorite or pass for me if I'm starting
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: my lineup with a Santos because Luana is going to
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: have to be the one grappling and grappling heavy if
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: she's going to look like a minus 275 or whatever
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: she is favorite. Yana is the better striker, more technical,
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: more proven striker. higher volume. And if she can stuff takedowns,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: I just think she's a live dog who could win
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: this fight. Uh, and if, if things are really going
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: her way, I think she could even land a couple
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: of takedowns and be fine in top control, kind of
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: score an extra couple of points for us that way.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: It just wouldn't be smart, uh, taking the fight to
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: the ground where Luana wants it. Uh, so I think
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: Yana's in play as a live striking underdog, but Luana's
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: the one who has a high ceiling with three rounds
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: of possible grappling or a submission could come in any round,
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: but she's 10 years younger, a lot more physical, uh,
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: And I think she could have a lot of success
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: once the fight is on the ground. I think she
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: could either keep it there or get a submission. I
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: just think the hardest part for her will be getting
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: it from the feet to the mat. And if she
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: can't do that, I don't even know if she's going
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: to win this fight. So I'm okay with either side
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: of this one. But I do have a preferred play,
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: and that's Luana, because she could score 115 points where
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's in play for Yana.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: I agree with everything you said, Yana. A live dog,
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: if she wins, 70 she might score, 62 she might score.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: But if enough underdogs lose and all the favorites win,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: 62 might be enough. And if you told me no
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: underdogs win on this card, I actually think Yana, I
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: was going to say she's one of the best because
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: the fight's so heavily to go the distance. But she
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: could spend so much time off her back where she
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: still doesn't score there. Luana? No. Yeah, I think this
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: is going to be relatively low-owned. You like it. I
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: like it a little bit, though, so I'm nervous some
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: people catch on. But if she wins, she needs a
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: finish is how I see it because all three of
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: her 100-plus wins in the UFC have come by finish.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: Any decision win, she has not scored over 100. She's
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: plus 300 inside the distance, which is 25%, and I
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: think her ownership will be somewhere around 18%. So a
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: wrestling-heavy game plan, which Luana's going to come in at.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: plus 300 to finish, which is higher than what her
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: ownership's going to be, in a range where Zach Reese
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: is going to be clicked a ton, that people are
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: going to go to that mid-tier. Jacoby Smith's going to
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: be a lot more popular, 8,800. Luana fits chalkier builds,
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: so I totally am in agreement with you. Luana, my
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: preferred play, the wrestler, hope she finishes, but I'll probably
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: cap Luana at 25%, so I won't be too, too overweight,
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: just because, again, she's never scored over 100. In a
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: decision win, and I don't think that changes this week
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: with a pretty loaded upper tier. Three fights left. Three
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: good fights to talk about. Mid-tier, where the cheaper fighter
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: in Cody Durden is now the favorite at minus 114.
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: Taking on Ode Osborne, minus 102. Minus 175 for this
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: fight to finish. Ode plus 120 inside the distance. Cody
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: plus 280. Talk about clash of styles. We got one
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: right here. The wrestler in Cody Durden. The striker in
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: O'Day Osborne. I'll let you take it away.
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like both sides of this fight as well.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: I do think this is a fight we probably want
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: to target. Durden is the, I'd say the decision guy
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: in this one. He's going to be our harder worker.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: He could land higher volume if it were stuck on
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: the feet, but we really want him to be wrestling
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: and he could wrestle hard for three full rounds and
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: score 110 plus points. As an underdog. So I definitely
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: like Durden. But we need him to survive. I think
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: Odeh is the more dangerous fighter. Really everywhere. I think
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: in round one. His submissions. He could grab a neck.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: And just not even let Durden get going. I also
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: think he's the better striker. Really until he starts to
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: slow down. I think he's the better striker. And I
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: also think he's more dangerous. But he's just not high
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: volume enough. For him to score well without a finish either.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: So if we get a finish from Odeh. He probably
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: scores well, especially if it's an early finish. But if
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: we don't get a finish from Odie, it probably means
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: Durden is winning and he's going to score well. So
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: with it priced right in the mid range, I think
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: both guys are alive for the optimal lineup. I was
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: going back and forth on this one as well. Don't
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: even remember who I picked. Let's find out.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Let's see.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: Must've been lower on the card.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: I picked Cody by unanimous decision. So I prefer the underdog,
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: I guess.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: Would you go another fight where I think Cody will
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: be a decent bit higher on than O'Day? He just
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: has a lot more outs. I think he should be
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: higher on. How much more? That gap's to be determined.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: Two mid-tier fights to compare, though. This fight or the
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Senzonato-Bergren fight. You have the exact same stars everywhere on
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: those two.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: I would say I like this fight more. Yeah, I
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: do like this fight more.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Okay, I think I'm on the other side just because
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: I'm most worried about O'Day winning and not being optimal.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Whether Cody controls him round one, dominates one and a
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: half rounds, gets knocked out after. But if Cody wins,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: he should be optimal. I'm a little more confident. Cezanato,
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: if he wins, it's through wrestling or an early finish
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: or just 7,700 is a price tag where it's a
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: lot easier to be optimal to win. But it's close.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: It is close for me.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: Two fights left. We are looking at Jacoby Smith, minus 283,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: taking on Randy Brown, plus 234. Minus 400 for this
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: fight to finish. Smith, minus 140 inside the distance. Randy Brown,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: plus 240. This was supposed to be Randy Brown versus
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Carlos Leal. Out is Leal due to injury. In is
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Jacoby Smith. Yeah, that's not very fun for Randy, rude boy, Brown.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: Going from Carlos Leal to Jacoby Smith. This dude looks
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: like he's built out of a lab. 13-0. 4-0 in
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: the UFC. He's done everything he's needed to do for
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: second round wins in every single fight. With that being said,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: he's given up five inches in height, six inches in reach,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: and a whole lot of UFC experience as this is
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: Randy Brown's 23rd walk to the UFC octagon. I love
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: this fight. I absolutely love it. I don't think the
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: field's going to treat it like a five-star fight, though,
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: so it seems like you want to be overweight on
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: both sides. I would have the stars exactly how you do.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: I'm picking Jacoby Smith He's taking money. But, man, Randy
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: Rudeboy Brown, if he wins, it's hard to see him
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: not being optimal. I would expect him to just be
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: a junkyard dog, survive early, and take over late and
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: get a finish. Last thing to note, too, again, this
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: fight on Tuesday, minus 350 to finish, now minus 400,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: which you like to see when you're playing this fight.
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Smith, one of my favorite players on the card,
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: just his style. I love the powerful wrestling, the powerful knockouts,
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: if they're if the knockouts not coming and he wants
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: to wrestle, I think he could do that. And there's
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: just been nothing bad that we've seen about his game
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: so far. Maybe Brown can expose them as an experienced
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: vet who is well-rounded, but is a good striker who
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: can have his cardio last for three rounds. I just
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: don't think Brown's the guy. I think he's towards the
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: end of his career. And this looks like a spot
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: where the UFC would love for, Brown just to give
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: all his success and his name right over to Jacoby
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: Smith and let him carry that forward. So I almost
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: made this five stars on the Smith side and one
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: star on Brown, but the money line talked me out
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: of it. I just, I think he should be a
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: bigger favorite than he is. Maybe it's the short notice.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's the less experienced, but skill wise, Smith just
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: looks like the full package and the real deal. And
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: I think he could wrestle his way to a high
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: scoring decision, but I think he's going to knock out
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: Brown and score well that way.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: If I'm telling you, guaranteed this fight starts the third round,
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: who do you think would be more likely to win
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: that third round?
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: The third round, I would think probably Brown. I would
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: think that's where you would see, like, Smith is up
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: two rounds, but it's a pick-em line on the live odds,
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: and you're like, oh, shit, what's going to happen here?
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: He's slowing down. Brown's picking it up, something like that.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: I would think that's how Brown wins and possibly could
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: score well, especially if Smith were to gasp. And Brown
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: could get like a late third round finish after really
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: putting it on him. I think Brown does have a
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: decent ceiling as well. Just I don't expect him to
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: do really anything in the first round. I think Smith
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: is just going to be too powerful and dominant for him.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, there's no doubt Randy Brown has a ceiling.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: He opened plus 285 inside the distance. Now he's plus
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: 240 inside the distance. I mean, that's better than Luana Santos.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: That's better than Pierre Rodriguez talking some 9K high 8K fighters.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: If Randy Brown wins, he definitely has upside, and I
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: agree with you. If this fight goes to the third round,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: you better watch out. I think the UFC vet, Randy Brown,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: might be a good live betting opportunity. I know a
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: lot of people, a couple people that success in the
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: Discord when we mentioned the live betting stuff, and they
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: hit it, and they've made some money last week. I
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: can't remember who it was the week prior. Yeah, live betting,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, is the biggest edge out there left
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: in the MMA streets all around if you watch enough fights,
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: if you are price shopping and have multiple books up. Yeah,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: I should also say, happy Halloween to everyone out there.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: This card is on Halloween day, so I will not
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: be watching any of it. I now have a little one,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: so yeah, no chance. The wife will let me stay
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: in and watch some UFC, but hey, we can still
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: make money with it. I take it you're also not
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: going to be watching any Big Marley and that you
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: will be out in the trick-or-treat streets?
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'll probably have it on the phone while
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: I walk around.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah. I actually, I can't even say that. I
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: think I'd get yelled at for, for the first Halloween
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: over here.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: So my kids are going to be running on their own.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: They're a little older.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Complete, completely different ball game for sure.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: It's the main events. Closest price fight on the card
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: and pretty much tied for the closest line fights. The
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: cheaper fighter. We're not to Moicano. Now the favorite at
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: minus one 15 taken on Tom Nolan minus one Oh
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: one minus three 25 for this fight to finish. Moicano,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: plus 140 inside the distance. Nolan, plus 140. inside the distance.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Moikano run one slightly better, plus 475. Tom Nolan plus 575.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is very similar to the O'Day-Durden fight
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: where it's a clear clash of styles. Moikano the grappler,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: Nolan the striker. What wins out? What do you think
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: wins out?
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: I actually don't know that Nolan is the striker. I mean,
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: I think he is the more explosive, more dangerous striker,
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: especially early in the fight. But Mui Kano is a
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: good striker, too. And I think point fighting wise, I
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: think Mui Kano can hang, especially the longer the fight goes.
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: I think he can hang even more late in the fight.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: But I do think if the fight's going to end
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: with a knockout in the first or second round, that
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: is probably Nolan. And I think that's his best path
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: to victory as well. But Mui Kano is just the
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: more well-rounded fighter. And I think that if he could
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: get takedowns, if he's wrestling heavy in this fight, I
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: think Nolan could really be in trouble because I do
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: like Mui Kano's top game. I think he's live for
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: submission in any round and I trust him more. The
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: older guy, actually, I kind of trust him more late
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: in this fight. He's just the more proven guy. He's
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: been there. He's done that. He's getting the main event now.
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: I kind of like, well, he was the underdog when
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: I was looking at this fight. Now he's the favorite.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: So I would rather just pay less for the guy
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: that I picked to win and is now the favorite.
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: I'll be heavy Moikano, underweight, but still get a decent
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: amount of exposure to Nolan.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Moikano opened plus 149 shortly after, was down to
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: like plus 108. The odds stayed there for a little
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: while before Moikano, what was it, like Sunday, Saturday or Sunday,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: dropped down to minus 106 and has stayed around there
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: ever since. I don't have, I mean, yeah, the odds,
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: like you're talking KO, plus 700 for Moikano, plus 200
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: for Nolan. Moikano by sub, plus 175. Nolan by sub,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: plus 800. So I do think it's a bigger gap
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: on the ground for Moikano than I think Nolan on
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: the feet, but I do think it's a clear way.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Nolan does win. I'm going to go opposite, but it's
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: really just game theory. Tom Nolan being 200 more and
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: the striker and the lesser name, I think you could
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: see a pretty wide ownership gap in this one. Just
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: a We saw Murab, and I know it's a little different,
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: but Murab was 54% last week. Peter Jan, 33% or 34%.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: That's a big gap. He ended up wanting neither of them,
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: which was absolutely crazy, that card. But I think you
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: could see something like Moicano, 52%. Tom Nolan, 38%. And
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: if that's the case on a 12-fight card, that's hard
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: to get different on an only $ 200 difference. I would
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: take that ownership gap. If you're telling me Moicano's 48%
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: and Nolan's 44%, give me Renato Moicano. We play a
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: game theory, an ownership game with only so many combinations
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: in MMA. So what you have the projected ownership at
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: should dictate what you do. At least that's how I play.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: So I think the gap will be wider than it should.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: And I'm going to say Tom Nolan is my preferred play,
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: even though he's 200 more. And I, to be honest,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: like any Tom Nolan team obviously can go Moikano and
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: leave 200. I think you more times than not have
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: less dupes when you use the 200 to and leave
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: $ 0 this week than leaving the $ 200, which you don't
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: say very often. So that's my take on it. Strong
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: lean on the actual winner? No. Gun to my head.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: I'm probably going to take Moicano just because there's a
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: bigger gap on the ground. But, yeah, I think you
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: can get lesser-duped teams with the Tom Nolan side without
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: giving up. Too much upside and too much on the
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: money line. Also, last thing to note, Moicano on Tuesday
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: was minus $ 130, 000. some buyback on the Nolan side, about
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: 15 cents, which I do like to see. I plan
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: on having a hundred percent of this fight in 20
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: entry and below, but I might've, you might've, and I
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: might've talked myself out of it just with a pretty
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: strong mid tier and eight K range. And I do
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: think there is pivots where 95 from Tom Nolan isn't enough.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: You said you don't plan on being a hundred percent.
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: No, honestly, if I'm making 10 lineups, I don't know
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: that I would be a hundred percent. Even in a
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: single entry, I could, talk myself out of using this
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: fight based on the fact of being chalky in every
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: other position in my lineup, and that's my excuse on
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: getting different is not having one of these guys.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: This fight or Durden-Osborne?
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: This fight.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: This fight or... Oh, you already said the O'Day fight
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: over the Cincinnati fight. So, yeah, this fight, I guess,
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: or Jacoby Smith-Randy Brown?
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: Ah, man, I'd say... I'd say that's close. Those are
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: my third and fourth favorites of these two five stars.
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: I like Reese Gall more, and I like Lee Arosa,
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: I think, a little bit more as well. Maybe not.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know. That one's tight. I like Reese Gall
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: the most for sure. These three are kind of tied together.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: But I'm not going to be all in on any
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: of them because of the other three. I'm fine just
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: targeting those ones.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Solid 12-fight card
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: at the Apex, 5 p.m. Eastern start time. Again, if
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: you're going to be watching, definitely enjoy it. If you're
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: going to be out and about trick-or-treating, whatever it may be,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: definitely enjoy your weekend. And hopefully you have a little
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: more cheese in your pocket come Free Money Sunday. That's
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: going to do it. Any final thoughts for you, Big Marley?
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: No, man, hopefully it's a good card. Hopefully it's a
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: happy Halloween. Enjoy that Packers game tomorrow. Good luck on Sunday.
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: Let's ship it.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. I will definitely be enjoying getting up to Lambeau
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: my first time in many of years to watch a game.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: So very excited for that. Head on over to Shippenation.com
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: if you want to get in and see plans and pricing.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: If you are playing NFL, NBA, NHL, any of that
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: good stuff, either the Core 100 or Starter, most likely
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: the best deal for you. Only gets cheaper the longer
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: you're with us. If you're playing thousands of dollars a month,
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: I do think trying out the Sims and the Ultimates
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: is definitely something you should look at. You also do
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: get DFS Mastermind with Starter and Ultimates. And if you're
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: only playing MMA, monthly and annual options as well. And
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: if you want Saber Sim, it only costs a little
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: bit more to add. That's going to do it. Enjoy
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: your week in Big Marley. Good luck, everybody. We're Big Marley.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: I'm Titletown. Good luck. Be safe. Peace.