Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 147 - 10/23/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 147 - 10/23/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 147 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. Let's go down, everyone.
0:34
Happy Wednesday. The work week rolls on.
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We are one day away from NFL Thursday Night Football, which
0:42
we're sitting right now at Minnesota -3 but it looks like
0:45
it might be coming down to the Rams as the Rams are pretty
0:48
juiced up here, maybe getting down to 2 1/2.
0:50
So you shall should have a update and a full breakdown.
0:53
And you know, I'll have a play for you for tomorrow night.
0:56
We got to talk about today's sweats and then we got to recap
0:59
a great night from last night. So looking toward today, guys, I
1:02
have a three pack of plays for you that I'm excited to share
1:04
with you. We're going to get right back to
1:06
the NBA with a total that caught my eye.
1:08
Hoping this thing flies over. Also, we have a college football
1:11
game where I'm looking at again two games tonight with huge
1:14
spreads. Like you have Liberty favored by
1:16
26 on the road, you have Jacksonville State favored by 20
1:20
and half at home. I'm going to look toward one of
1:22
these totals, hopefully take advantage of tonight.
1:24
And then I got to play for you in the NHL.
1:26
There's only one game looking at the Flyers in the Washington
1:29
Caps. I think there's an angle here
1:31
from a betting system standpoint for tonight's game.
1:34
So a three pack overall, one NBA, 1 college, one NHL.
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See if we can go 2 and one, get 2 out of 3 and eke out a winning
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night. I'm also going to look at an
1:42
early sharp report for NFL week 8 because there are three games
1:45
that I have my eye on. I'm thinking we might want to
1:48
grab a couple of these sooner rather than later before these
1:50
hooks and key numbers fall too much.
1:52
But I buried the lead. Great night last night guys. 3
1:56
and 1 + 1.82 units that start off great with a Celtics over
2:00
that absolutely smashed Celtics came out fire and scored a
2:04
million points. Almost set the record for three
2:06
pointers in a game. Got kind of ridiculous at the
2:09
end as they're trying to break the record, but that total flew
2:11
way over again. That was a play for us.
2:14
Looking at some good movement, some good system matches, and a
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good rhythm model where that the model is closer to 2:24 so
2:22
easily cast our over Celtics. Great start to the NBA season.
2:26
Want to know? I'll take it.
2:27
And then a great night in college football.
2:29
Both contrarian dogs we're barking up a storm.
2:33
Had a great hit early with FIU. I remember they were plus 6 1/2
2:36
all the way down to 4 1/2. They got down to 3 1/2 at one
2:39
point. There's a little bit of buyback,
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but that was a kind of clear public all over Sam Houston.
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Yet line went to FIU. That game was insane because it
2:47
was basically 00 like midway through the third quarter.
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Got a little lucky there. At one point FIU ended up losing
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by three, which is great because they were a contrarian reverse
2:57
line move that came through for the team.
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And then UTEP, kind of a heartbreaking loss for UTEP
3:02
because they might have probably should have won the game, but
3:05
they end up losing by 4:00. That's fine with us.
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They open +7. Everyone's on lot tech, yet the
3:10
line got down to 6 1/2, so it's a great hit there with UTEP
3:13
covering the number. So nice little 2 and O in
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college, 1 and O in the NBA. Only loser in the NHL was the
3:19
New York Islanders, kind of a tough one there.
3:21
The aisles lost one nothing. They just couldn't get anything
3:24
going offensively. And if you look at the shots on
3:26
goal, I want to say Detroit only had like 12 shots on goal.
3:30
So kind of a tough one there. But if you tell me we're going
3:33
to go 3 and 1 + 1.82 units, I will take that every single
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time. So great night in the arena and
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let's turn the page to a big Wednesday, see if we can keep
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the good vibes going. Now.
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I want to start off tonight getting right back to the NBA.
3:46
Obviously for those of you who were waiting for the NBA, the
3:50
long wait is over. Had a great win with the Celtics
3:52
over last night and one win down for the over 58 1/2 win total.
3:57
But anyway, I lean typically when it comes to NBA on a lot of
4:00
totals because I have a lot of good totals data basically.
4:03
So I look at kind of totals in which I feel like the markets
4:08
moving in my direction, and then I can take advantage of kind of
4:10
the style of play that one or both of the teams like to
4:14
employ. So I laid on one total tonight
4:16
that I'll be sweating. Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks.
4:20
That's 7:30 PM Eastern Time tonight, and I'm going to go
4:22
over 222 1/2. Now their numbers have moved a
4:26
little bit. Total open at 2:21, it's up to
4:29
222 1/2, but there are some 220 threes and even 223 1/2's out
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there. So I was able to get over 2/22
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and 1/2 at FanDuel as well as Fanatics.
4:38
It's at 2:23 at Caesars and it's 223 1/2 at Bet MGM and ESPN Bet.
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So, you know, most of the time you say, hey, hopefully it won't
4:45
matter. They'll score in the two 30s and
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it won't make a difference. But there will be times where
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again, it lands, you know, 223 the early 2/22 and 1/2 wins, the
4:55
late 223 1/2 loses. Again, always be programmed to
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have multiple outs, have different sports books to choose
5:01
from. Always get the best of the
5:02
number. But let me give you my breakdown
5:04
in terms of why I like this over so couple things going on here.
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Number one, just from a market perspective, this total is
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rising. As I mentioned, open 221 Hawks
5:13
Nets. Now it's up to again 222 and a
5:16
half, 223 even 223 1/2. You should at least be able to
5:20
get a 223 2/22 and 1/2 at FanDuel is technically available
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right now. I hope it's still available when
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the pod comes out, but the line is risen.
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Now let's look at the bet percentages.
5:30
Only 60% of bets are going over net talks, but the over is
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taking into account 69% of dollars.
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So low bets, higher dollars bet split also 60% public is not
5:41
that public. Public will lean even harder on
5:44
over 7080%. So 60% to me, it's it's not
5:47
technically contrarian, but it's not as popular as some others
5:50
that we've seen. So I kind of like the fact that
5:52
it's a little bit lower on the on the obvious or popular side.
5:56
But we do have the low bets, higher dollars, 9% discrepancy,
5:59
which lines up with that tick up in terms of the total.
6:02
Obviously both teams arrested first game of the year, so that
6:05
shouldn't be an issue. Also like the fact that the
6:07
spread is falling a bit for the Brooklyn Nets because you open
6:10
the Hawks as high as a 7 1/2 point home favorite.
6:14
Now they're down to 7 or 6 1/2. So like the fact that the total
6:18
is falling, maybe we get a more competitive game.
6:21
The one thing you worry about when you bet an over is the home
6:24
team or either team, it's a blowout.
6:26
They take their foot off the gas and they just want to get the
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game over with. You want a competitive game with
6:30
scoring back and forth. You want both teams to
6:32
contribute to the total, ideally to cash the over.
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So I do like the fact that we're ticking toward a shorter spread.
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To me, this isn't a short spread by definition.
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Short spread to me is like 5 or less.
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So we're at 6 1/2 or 7. But still the line has ticked up
6:46
in favor of the Nets. So again, hope we get that
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competitive game. And then we look at kind of the
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style of play for both these teams and Atlanta's bringing
6:54
back most of their guys from last year.
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Nets are a young team, of course, but the Hawks in
6:59
particular, this is really a play on the Hawks because last
7:02
year the Atlanta Hawks went 46 and 36 to the over 56%.
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That was the third best over team in the NBA.
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But if you hone it to just when the Hawks are at home, you know,
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you whittle it down a little bit.
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When Atlanta is at home, the over was 26 and 1563% and that
7:19
was the number one over team in terms of if they're at home.
7:24
So again, Hawks were 56% overall to the over, but they're 63% to
7:28
the over at home. You also digging a little bit
7:31
deeper. Atlanta scores a lot.
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Trey Young, of course, comes to mind, but they were 12th in
7:35
offensive efficiency last year. But they're also 27th in
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defensive efficiency. So they score a lot, They give
7:42
up a lot. Meanwhile, the Nets 20th in
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defensive efficiency. They're one of the worst
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defensive teams in the NBA, right there with Atlanta.
7:49
And then also, you're going to play an over.
7:51
You want a lot of possessions. You want back and forth.
7:54
You want a fast pace, not a slow pace.
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Atlanta was #5 in terms of pace last year, the fifth fastest
8:00
team. So we have the total rising 221
8:03
up to now around 2:23. We have a low bets, higher
8:06
dollars bet split. We have a rested, you know,
8:08
group of guys on both sides. We have a short spread that's
8:11
falling to the dog. We have the Hawks as a great
8:13
over team and home over team. We have good offense efficiency,
8:17
bad defensive efficiency and we have fast-paced team, especially
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in particular with Atlanta. So you add it all up here guys,
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this reminds me a lot of Celtics one last night.
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I'm going to go Nets Hawks over now.
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I got 2/22 and 1/2 that was available at FanDuel as well as
8:32
Fanatics, but again, some books at 2:23 or 223 1/2.
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Try to get the best number you can, but I am holding Nets Hawks
8:39
over 222 1/2. Now let's go over to college
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football because there are two college football games tonight.
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And to be honest with the guys, they're huge spreads and I don't
8:49
like laying or taking huge spreads.
8:51
It's just, you know, there's more volatility, there's more
8:54
variance and it really comes down to like 1 possession
8:57
whether you're going to cover or not.
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So in terms of the two games tonight, as I mentioned before,
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Liberty, Kennesaw, Liberty's favored by 26, Middle Tennessee,
9:05
Jacksonville, Jacksonville State is favored by 20 1/2.
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I want to focus on the first game, Liberty and Kennesaw
9:11
State. Now in terms of kind of both
9:14
these teams, they're polar opposites.
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This is of course a Conference USA game 7:00 tonight on CBS
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Sports Network. Liberty comes in five and O
9:23
again, undefeated. They've played great.
9:26
They just beat FIU 3124 and overtime member we covered with
9:29
FIU there. Kennesaw complete opposite.
9:32
They are terrible. They're O and six.
9:35
They just lost to MTSU 14 to five their last game.
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Now in terms of the side, we have seen movement here in favor
9:43
of Liberty. So maybe Liberty just blows them
9:46
out because Liberty opened at -24 now they're -26 even 26 and
9:51
half across the market and they're getting around 65% of
9:54
bets in dollars. So big line move public play
9:57
toward Liberty. I don't want to play liberty
9:59
because I'm getting the worst of the number and with the public,
10:02
I don't particularly want to play Kennesaw because you really
10:05
have don't have anything other than a contrarian opportunity
10:07
here. So I want to focus on the total.
10:09
And one thing I noticed is some sharp money hitting this over.
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I'm going to go over in this one, guys, give me the over 47.
10:17
Now this total open at 45 1/2. It's now been bet up to 47 and
10:22
actually a couple of shops that are at 47 1/2.
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So just like we talked about that Nets Hawks total trying to
10:27
get the best of it over 47. If you want to play this with
10:30
me, it's available at both Caesars and fanatics right now.
10:33
47 1/2 with a hook. That's FanDuel bet, MGM and ESPN
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bet. Now the total is ticked up 45
10:39
1/2 to 47. So we know right off the bat we
10:42
got some respective money going over.
10:44
Now it looks kind of like a pro and Joe over to me.
10:46
Currently you're getting around 75% of bets and dollars on the
10:49
over. So I don't think it's just
10:50
public saying, hey, that's a low total.
10:52
Let's go over. It looks like there was some,
10:54
definitely some wise guy money early, more closely when it was
10:58
around 45 and a half, 4646 1/2, but looks like pro and Joe bets
11:02
in dollars both to that over. But I'm going to look at this in
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a couple different directions. My angle for the over is that we
11:09
have a really good offense for Liberty.
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They're averaging 33 points per game on offense and we have a
11:14
terrible defense. In terms of Kennesaw State,
11:17
they're giving up 32.3 points per game.
11:21
So hopefully Liberty scores a lot and hopefully Kennesaw can
11:24
pitch in with, you know, a touchdown or two to help us cash
11:27
this over. We also look at the opportunity
11:30
here with a really good weather spot, you know, in terms of
11:33
really just perfect football weather for Kennesaw State
11:37
tonight. It's going to be around 70°, no
11:39
wind at all, around 3 mph, clear skies.
11:42
So you don't have any issue with the weather should be perfect
11:44
conditions for offense. And then you also look at an
11:48
angle here in terms of a rhythm system match.
11:51
What really what I really like to want this over was that it
11:53
was ticking up and rhythm was telling me to play the over
11:56
because I had two rhythm system matches or predictions.
12:00
Here in terms of the total, 1 is a final total of 49.2.
12:06
The other one is a total of 48.1.
12:09
So even if you take the 48.1, you disregard the 49.2.
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Both of these models are predicting this number to be
12:15
higher than what the current total is.
12:18
Then you look at the community model.
12:19
So everyone with a rhythm app who has created a personalized
12:23
model, where does it land over or under here?
12:26
Well, currently you're looking at 65.8% of those models also
12:30
saying to take the over. So I know it's a big spread.
12:33
You know, we know Liberty's going to score, you know, will
12:36
they win 48 to nothing? That'll catch the over.
12:39
But if they get in the high 30s, can we get a couple touchdowns,
12:41
10 points or more from Kennesaw? I'm hoping that is the case.
12:45
Also, Kennesaw is at home as a dog, so even if you're down big,
12:48
hopefully you fight to the bitter end and maybe get a
12:50
garbage touchdown. If that's what we need, we'll
12:52
take it. But either way, guys, this total
12:54
is on the rise. Perfect weather, great offense,
12:57
bad defense and a really good rhythm.
12:59
Edge predicting a total closer to 49.
13:03
So I'm going to go over. I got the over 47 for Liberty
13:06
and Kennesaw State, and that came for me from Caesar's.
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Keep on cruising. One NHL bet for you tonight,
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guys, and there's only one game to choose from.
13:15
They're doing it again to me. We had one game the other night,
13:18
then 16 last night, now one tonight and then nine tomorrow.
13:22
So this is going to be like get off my lawn, you know, old guy,
13:25
you know, yelling at the at the clouds.
13:27
But I just do not get the NHL schedule makers.
13:30
It makes no sense to me. Anyway.
13:32
That being said, let's see if we can cash a ticket in the NHL
13:35
tonight. So only game on the board.
13:37
Philly and Washington Flyers visiting the Caps Flyers come in
13:41
one, four and one. They've had a tough start to the
13:43
year. The caps are playing pretty well
13:46
four and one so far to start the season.
13:48
Now important thing to know is that these teams played last
13:51
night and it was in Philly. So this is a home and home home
13:54
Philly last night. Now it's home Washington.
13:56
So it's a back-to-back for both teams, which applies to a really
13:59
good system that I have that I'm hopefully used to help us cash
14:02
tonight. But anyway, last night they
14:04
played Washington won four to 1. So now they they flip it.
14:08
They go to the Capitals Arena tonight and it's the same
14:11
matchup. Philly Washington.
14:12
So first thing you notice is the line is going toward Washington.
14:16
Washington open at some shops as low as around -135.
14:20
Now Washington is up to around -145 some books even up to -150.
14:25
I got Washington on the money line at -145 at Caesars.
14:29
Looking at the bet splits, 77% bets, 84% money on the over.
14:34
Again, I don't look at a ton of bet splits with hockey because
14:37
it's really not a public sport. But I do at least want to get
14:39
some low bets, higher dollars. So we do have that with the line
14:42
move toward Washington and a low bets, higher dollars bet split.
14:46
But really to me, this is a play on #1 we've seen from both these
14:50
teams thus far. Like Washington is averaging
14:52
four goals a game versus 2.2 for Philly.
14:55
So Washington, the Caps here have the better offense.
14:58
They also have the better defense.
14:59
They're only giving up three goals a game versus 4.2 for
15:02
Philly. And the goal tenders tonight
15:05
we're expected to get Ivan or Ivan the top Fedotov O and two
15:11
six point O, nine goals against 818 say percent.
15:14
He's gotten lit up in the only couple starts that he made.
15:18
If you look at his box scores, let me just pull them up real
15:21
quick. He gave up five goals to
15:23
Seattle. He gave up five goals to
15:25
Calgary, his only two games that he's played this year.
15:28
So I'm hoping that the Washington Caps offense can get
15:31
to Fedotov and then Logan Thompson, who used to be on the
15:36
Vegas goal of the Knights. He's going for Washington.
15:38
Logan Thompson on the years 2 and O not a great 3.41 goals
15:42
against or 877 save percentage. One game he won, he beat Vegas.
15:46
He only gave up two goals. Last one was a win as well, six
15:49
to five in overtime, but he gave up five against the devil.
15:51
So it's not like Thompson is, you know, Tim Thomas in the 2011
15:55
Bruins playoff run. But I do think it's an advantage
15:58
Thomas over Fedotov. But really the angle for me with
16:02
Washington are some really good system matches.
16:04
And here's some systems that really incorporate the
16:07
back-to-back system match. So if both teams are on a
16:10
back-to-back again, Philly, Washington played each other
16:13
last night, now they're playing in tonight.
16:15
So it would qualify both teams on a back-to-back take the
16:18
favorite. It's very simple.
16:19
It's two and one this year, 67%. But if you look at historically,
16:23
it's been really good year, year over year, looking all the way
16:27
back to since 2021. So pretty good sample size.
16:31
It's two O 1 and 9668 percent, 8% ROI and then a favorite just
16:37
in general against the team on a back-to-back nine and four this
16:39
year, 69% since 2021. But it's really that both
16:43
back-to-back take the favorite for whatever reason, you know,
16:45
maybe it's the familiarity instead of leveling the playing
16:48
field. Maybe is it's a benefit to the
16:49
home team. Washington also gets the last
16:51
ice change here. But either way, guys, we got a
16:54
line move. We got good system matches,
16:56
hopefully an edge and goal. I'm going to go caps tonight.
16:58
Let's go Washington. I got him at -145 at Caesars.
17:02
So capitals over 47, Liberty, Kennesaw and Nets Hawks, I got
17:07
over 222 1/2 again, some shops a little bit higher now 223 three
17:12
pack. See if we can find a way to get
17:14
two of them. Now let's keep an eye on the
17:17
action for this upcoming week in the NFL cuz there are a couple
17:20
games that caught my eye. First off, let's look toward
17:24
Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans now going in this
17:28
one. This is a 1:00 game on Sunday.
17:30
The Colts are four and three. They've won two straight and
17:34
they just held off the dolphins 16 to 10 covered as a
17:37
three-point home favorite. You know all the Texans 5 and
17:39
two just saw their three-game win streak come to an end.
17:42
They beat they lost to the Packers 2422.
17:46
They did cover though as a three-point Rd. dog.
17:48
I'm happy because I'm money line the Packers there.
17:50
But this is all about a classic reverse line move because the
17:53
public is saying give me Houston all day.
17:55
Right now. The Texans are getting 78% of
17:58
spread bats, a big popular play, yet the open minus 6 1/2, the
18:02
line's down to five. Why is this line going toward
18:05
Indy if everyone's playing Houston?
18:08
You guys know by now that's your easiest, most dead giveaway, You
18:12
know, signal that smart money is going with the Colts and the
18:14
points. Colts are only getting 22% of
18:16
bets, but 48% of dollars. So a really good low bets,
18:20
higher dollars bet split. Colts would also be a divisional
18:23
dog. So that built in familiarity
18:25
leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting
18:27
points in particular, even though it's kind of been a
18:30
chalky year in the in the NFL, you still have Rd. dogs doing
18:34
pretty well. Rd. dogs are 37 and 28 against
18:37
the spread 57%. And in particular, if you are a
18:40
road dog getting 4 1/2 points or more, that's been kind of the
18:44
the line of demarcation Rd. dog 4 1/2 or more.
18:47
Those teams are 19 and 10 against the spread, 66% this
18:51
year with a with a nine percent ROI or sorry with a 25% ROI.
18:56
CJ Stroud, by the way, he's great as a dog six and two
18:59
against the spread. He's only 5 and 9 ATS as a
19:02
favorite. So he really hasn't played well
19:04
or he's won, but he hasn't covered these numbers routinely
19:07
as a favorite. Then also if you like the under,
19:10
it's a huge line move in a bit great bet split.
19:12
The the total opened 48 1/2. It's down to 46 and the under is
19:17
only getting 54% of bets, but 96% of dollars.
19:21
That is a huge low bets, higher dollars bet split and we do have
19:26
system match here in a divisional game when the total
19:28
falls at least the full point. The under is 9 and seven this
19:31
year and it's 54 percent, 4% ROI since 2017.
19:36
So I would lean pretty hard on the under 46 1/2 if you can find
19:39
it. There is one book with a hook at
19:41
FanDuel, 46 1/2. Rest are 40 sixes and I see a 45
19:45
1/2 at ESPN bet. But I would mention this if you
19:49
have a FanDuel account. Right now I'm in Massachusetts.
19:52
FanDuel is giving me the hook on the Indianapolis Colts.
19:55
So if you have the opportunity to get a hook here plus 5 1/2,
19:59
again, the majority of the market is +5 Indy.
20:02
I would jump on the 5 1/2, so that's what I did.
20:04
Vandal was giving me plus 5 1/2. I'm grabbing it here with Indy,
20:09
but this would be a contrarian Rd. reverse line move.
20:11
Divisional dog, low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
20:14
And again, if you can get the hook on under 46 1/2, I'm not
20:16
going to argue with that either. Next one Atlanta Falcons, Tampa
20:20
Bay Bucks. Huge line move in this one.
20:23
Let's set the stage though. Falcons come in four and three
20:26
just had their three-game win streak come to an end.
20:28
They lost to the Seahawks, got rolled 34 to 14, lost as a
20:31
three-point home favorite. You know, the Bucks four and
20:34
three couldn't quite get that last score for us to cover on
20:37
Monday night. They lost 4131 as a four and a
20:39
half point home dog. So early opener for this game
20:43
was actually Tampa Bay favorite, around a 2 1/2 point home
20:45
favorite. But because we saw huge injuries
20:48
to Tampa Bay, Mike Evans is out for a while.
20:51
Chris Godwin's probably out for the year.
20:53
Your two best wide outs are out because of that mostly.
20:56
And smart money, Atlanta. We've seen the sign completely
20:59
flip toward the Falcons. The Falcons after an early plus
21:02
2 1/2 opener, are now -2 1/2. So you guys know what that is.
21:06
Dog to fave line move that I want to get behind now.
21:09
Atlanta's getting 60% of bets, but 80% of dollars.
21:13
Low bets, higher dollars bet split tells us slight public
21:16
support but also heavy sharp action Rd. favorites are 24 and
21:21
11 against the spread 69% this year.
21:23
It's been a good system. Falcons also are a rest first
21:26
tired play. They played on Sunday.
21:28
You'll get the bucks during a short week.
21:30
They played Monday night against the really physical tough Ravens
21:32
team and now they have to their top wide receivers who are out
21:36
now. If you want to go Atlanta here,
21:38
which I'm that's what I'm doing. I want to bet against Tampa with
21:41
their injuries short week and then I want to follow this line
21:43
move Atlanta and that road favorite system match.
21:45
This is a money line play for me.
21:47
I'm not going to mess around laying at 2 1/2.
21:49
Maybe Atlanta wins by one or two.
21:50
I lose my bet. I'm not going to go down that
21:52
road. So I money lined Atlanta -145
21:55
that's in pocket and the Falcons good bet split to the money
21:59
line. Only 52% bets, 72% money.
22:04
You also have a really good Rd. ref Sean Hockey League.
22:06
He's 56% to the road team. We have seen this total fall 49
22:10
1/2 down to 46 with a lot of these good offensive guys out
22:13
for Tampa. But Tampa, I think it's just a
22:15
bad spot for them. Short Week 2 huge injuries.
22:19
Atlanta's off a blowout loss. So you expect them to come back
22:21
and play well? This is a dog to fave money line
22:24
play for me. I'm on the Falcons at -145 next
22:28
one for you. I can't believe I'm going to do
22:30
it. Give me America's team, give me
22:32
Jerry's team. Dallas Cowboys like the boys
22:34
here, guys, this is Sunday Night Football.
22:37
Dallas Cowboys at the San Francisco 49ers.
22:40
Cowboys come in three and three. Last time we saw them, they got
22:43
their doors blown off by the Lions.
22:45
They lost 47 to 9, didn't cover as a 3 1/2 point home dog.
22:49
Meanwhile, the 49ers 3 and 4 just lost to the Chiefs 2818
22:54
losing as a 2 1/2 point home favorite.
22:55
I'm still kicking myself. Why didn't I just, why didn't I
22:57
just blindly take my homes as a dog, which I did in the Super
23:00
Bowl? I don't know why I talked myself
23:01
out of that. But anyway, early opener was
23:04
49ers 6 -, 6 1/2 at home. However, 49ers, similar to the
23:09
Bucks, have some big injuries. Brandon Iuke is out for the
23:12
year. Devo Samuels in the hospital
23:14
with like illness or pneumonia or something.
23:15
So he might miss this game. And because of that, we've seen
23:18
the sign really tumble. San Fran minus 6 1/2.
23:21
Now it's down to San Fran -4 1/2.
23:24
So a big two point adjustment in favor of Dallas.
23:28
Dallas is only getting 40% bets but 50% money.
23:31
So good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
23:34
Also rest first tired advantage. Cowboys are coming off a bye so
23:39
again they needed that by after they got rolled by the Lions but
23:42
rested off a bye. San Fran just played the Chiefs
23:46
so rest first tired play. Weirdly enough, Dallas 3 and O
23:49
on the road, O and three at home kind of doesn't make much sense,
23:52
but they are on the road here, which is a good sign.
23:55
I've seen a Wong teaser opportunity 4 1/2 up to 10 1/2
24:00
that would go through a couple key numbers and also looks like
24:03
a really good under play total open at 4:00 at 50.
24:06
The total is now down to 46 1/2 and the under is only getting
24:11
33% bets but 86% money. So maybe we get a lower scoring
24:16
game here with, you know, Dallas's offense not playing
24:18
great in San Fran, having some injuries.
24:21
But if you look at that prime time under system match, 59%
24:24
since 2019. So I jumped on the boys at plus
24:28
4 1/2 and again, FanDuel looks like one of the few books that
24:32
is still giving out the hook at four and a half.
24:34
A lot of the rest of the market is at 4, but I'm looking toward
24:37
toward Dallas in this one. Maybe, maybe San Fran wins by
24:40
three, you know, But I like Dallas off of by line move.
24:43
San Francisco's banged up. I'm going to take the boys at
24:46
plus 4 1/2. So that about does it for an
24:50
early sharp report for NFL Week 8.
24:52
And that does it for this edition of the pod.
24:55
Episode 147 of the ASG Pod here powered by Rhythm.
24:59
This is part of the pod. We wrap things up where I start
25:02
by asking a big favor of you. Can you do me a solid?
25:05
Can you make me happy? Could you please take a few
25:08
seconds out of your day and give this podcast a five star review?
25:12
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, go to rate and
25:14
review, click five stars. I would very much appreciate
25:17
that would help us to grow the pod, you know, rise up the
25:20
charts, gain more, more lessons and continue to to grow.
25:24
That's where the goal of this pod.
25:25
So if you want to give it five stars, I'd very much appreciate
25:28
it. If you want to leave a nice
25:29
review, that's great as well. If you want to click the follow
25:31
button, good idea there. That way you'll be alerted as
25:34
soon as it drops each day. And also if you want to
25:37
recommend the pod word of mouth to a friend of yours, I would
25:40
love that as well. But seriously, five star review.
25:43
I would very much appreciate that.
25:44
Secondly, if you enjoy the style of betting, breaking down the
25:49
market, following the market, do you feel like a Wall Street
25:51
trader looking at stocks and prices and trying to take
25:55
advantage of you know where the smart money's going?
25:57
Having a contrarian mindset, looking at bets in dollars line
26:00
move system matches, you know, identifying sharp bankroll
26:04
management plays? If this style of betting appeals
26:07
to you and you've now seen the light a little bit, will you
26:10
become a millionaire overnight? No, but it provides you a
26:12
blueprint to grind your way to profitability, turning an
26:15
investment, turning a hobby into an investment.
26:18
If this style of betting appeals to you and you enjoy the pod and
26:21
you want to make my day not only by giving it five stars, but
26:24
also by buying my book. That's right, I wrote a book.
26:28
It's called the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
26:30
Just go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to
26:33
Sports Betting. Pick up a copy for you, or a
26:35
buddy or a friend of yours, or someone who's in a newly
26:38
legalized state, or someone who's trying to bet on sports
26:41
but you know has no idea how to start.
26:44
But the Everything Guide to Sports Betting, it's got
26:46
everything I've learned in the industry.
26:48
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
26:50
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
26:53
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
26:56
a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
26:58
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
27:00
So grab one, bring it to the sports book.
27:02
When I see you there, I'll buy a beer or ginger ale.
27:04
I'll sign the book for you and we'll sweat some games together.
27:07
How's that sound next? Have you taken advantage of
27:10
Rhythm or Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
27:13
apps on the market. And if you haven't done it yet,
27:16
I'd like you to download Rhythm and Juice Reel and give it a
27:19
shot with a 7 day free trial. You can do so by clicking the
27:22
custom links that are located in the bio description of each
27:25
podcast. For example, today's pod will
27:27
say something like an episode 147.
27:30
Josh dishes out a three pack of sweats across NBA, college, NHL
27:34
and has an early sharp report for NFL Week 8.
27:36
OK, scroll below that. Go down a little bit.
27:39
You should see a link to Rhythm and a link to Juice Real.
27:41
You got to click those custom links.
27:42
It's very important because I want to know, I want them to
27:45
know that I've referred to you their way, that I'm doing my
27:47
part to help grow both Rhythm and Juice Real.
27:50
But Rhythm, as we know, great for their AI backed models and
27:53
predictions for both player props and game bats.
27:56
If you like betting NBA Rhythm is one of the best for NBA.
28:00
If you bet player props or game totals again, we use that rhythm
28:03
prediction closer to 224 for the Celtics last night took the over
28:07
that helped us cash then also with Juice reel fantastic for
28:11
their Robo Jackson best bet picks each day.
28:13
If you just want to tail those or you want to take advantage of
28:16
arbitrage opportunities, you can look at sharp mush indicators.
28:20
Make sure you're on the sharp side with the wise guys and not
28:22
not the drunk guys at the bar. Or of course, linking up or
28:26
syncing your sports books, getting a running breakdown of
28:30
your performance, keeping yourself honest, knowing your
28:33
strengths and weaknesses, all available to you.
28:35
Those great features with a Juice Reel membership.
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So sign up for both. Give him a shot.
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They help me win. I'm confident they'll help you
28:41
win. So that about does it,
28:43
everybody. Second last thing I'll always
28:45
leave you with, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic
28:48
City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New
28:50
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, at the
28:54
Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
28:57
In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts, or out in the
28:59
desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters
29:02
sends his number runners, also known as beards.
29:05
Or of course, out in the desert at Circa, jumping in the pool at
29:10
stadium swimming to catch a big ticket, wherever it may be.
29:13
You're going to show me some nice tickets from last night.
29:15
Show me a Celtics over ticket. Show me an FIU plus the points
29:19
ticket. Show me AUTEP plus the points
29:21
ticket. Guess what?
29:22
First one's on me, next one's on you.
29:24
We'll post about the book and sweat some data-driven plays
29:27
together. So that about does it everybody.
29:29
As always, my parting words, whether we're three and one, one
29:32
and three, grinding up, down, it doesn't matter.
29:35
Always remember sports betting is difficult, so when you have a
29:37
good night, it gives you confidence you can win.
29:40
When you have a bad night, don't get down on yourself.
29:42
This is the hardest market to beat.
29:44
We got to beat the supercomputers, the incredibly
29:46
razor sharp lines the odds maker set.
29:48
We got to avoid human error ref screwing us over.
29:52
You know, you know, players making mistakes, things you
29:55
don't expect that's going to happen.
29:57
But here's the thing, you can never guarantee a win.
30:00
But if you stick to the data-driven approach against the
30:02
public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays,
30:06
get that closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
30:09
to be successful sports betters long term.
30:11
So enjoy the sweats tonight, guys again, three pack here.
30:14
Let's find a way to get two of them and get our keep our
30:16
winning streak going here. And then we'll be right back at
30:19
it for another big pod tomorrow, which will be a big thirsty
30:22
Thursday episode 148 for tomorrow of the all systems go
30:26
sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
30:29
Good luck everybody, have a great Wednesday night.