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WEEK ONE College Football Best Bets!! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:03
All right. Welcome everybody to Targeting
0:05
Winners. It's our Week 1 preview with our
0:08
picks for the first official week, I guess week that's, you
0:11
know, actual big time games coming in here today.
0:15
Darren up in New York, how are you?
0:17
Good man, how's it going? Not bad.
0:20
Peter the Yooper, almost. How's it up there?
0:27
Pete heard. Pete's frozen or he can't hear
0:30
you. One or the other.
0:31
Either that or he can't. Hear I'm back now.
0:32
I can hear you. I think it was frozen for a
0:33
second. But good to see you all.
0:34
I'm excited to be here. Do they have you up there on the
0:37
Upper Peninsula? Is that the?
0:39
Yeah, it's it's like there's there's a pigeon that you have
0:42
to fly back and forth between poles.
0:43
It works sometimes. All right, all right, so we're
0:47
gonna go jump right into our week one picture and look back
0:50
at week zero. First, let's pull up our little
0:53
graphic up here. Darren, take us through it.
0:57
All right, so, yeah, just to get a get a quick recap of what we
1:01
have going for tonight and tomorrow before we get into
1:03
Saturday. So, yeah, quick recap.
1:06
Kansas State screwed us, which, Tim, I'm sorry, you should have
1:10
known you're going to lose that one once.
1:11
I bet it as well. But the Week 0 schneid has come
1:16
to a screeching halt. Thank you, Jalen Daniels.
1:20
Yes, well played. Yeah.
1:23
I mean, I said the new OC was going to make a difference.
1:25
And Daniels only went out and completed 90% of his passes and
1:28
three touchdowns. So it's nice to be right for a
1:30
change. So thank you, Kansas.
1:31
A new streak has begun. I do have one AD for tonight.
1:35
I'll get into that shortly. But for tomorrow, I do have
1:38
Baylor on the money line over Auburn and I do have San Jose
1:42
State. I got 11 1/2.
1:43
That has gone up to 13 or 13 1/2 in some places.
1:47
It wouldn't go any higher than 13 1/2 if you're if you're still
1:51
looking to back the Spartans there.
1:53
I did add a game the other night.
1:56
I was looking at Nebraska and Cincinnati.
1:58
The game being played at Arrowhead.
2:01
Bet MGM really quickly went to +7.
2:04
I jumped on that. So I do have the Bearcats
2:06
tonight +7 that is still available at bet Rivers from the
2:09
looks of it and Bally I think if you have access to Bally where
2:13
you are. Yes, Rivers and Bally still
2:16
showing 7. I mean, I just think people are
2:20
sleeping a little bit on Cincinnati and especially their
2:22
offense. Brendan Sorsby's not a bad QB.
2:25
They got a couple of good running backs, including a
2:27
transfer from Wisconsin who had over 100 yards and 10 TDs last
2:30
year. I think Dylan Riola will
2:33
improve. But what worries me the most
2:36
about Nebraska is they play a 335.
2:37
That front 6 is all gone. I mean, there's no starter
2:40
coming back from that group. So I'm hoping between Sorsby
2:43
and, and his dual threat capability, he did lead the
2:45
Bearcats in rushing touchdowns last year.
2:48
So I'm hoping between him and the 2 running backs, they can
2:50
kind of, yeah, keep Nebraska on the field a little bit longer
2:53
than they want to be. I just think 7's too much here.
2:58
So yeah, nothing. I know it's probably going to be
3:00
all Nebraska fans because it's in Kansas City now, but just
3:05
don't totally trust Nebraska at this point.
3:07
So I, I, I took it because it did hit 7.
3:10
So I do have that to go with mine.
3:12
And Pete, you still got you got one kicking off shortly, one
3:15
later on and 1:00 tomorrow as well.
3:17
Yes, Sir, Auburn, Baylor, under 57 1/2 coming up soon.
3:22
But right now starting, well, three minutes ago, NC State and
3:25
East Carolina kicking off right now.
3:26
So we'll be keeping an eye on it while we're here today looking
3:29
at the under 59 1/2. So I don't expect to see a ton
3:32
of scoring early. We'll see how that goes.
3:34
And then I have Wisconsin, Miami of Ohio over 39 1/2.
3:38
I mean, if you want the full analysis, go back to our Week 0
3:41
show. But as I noted there, right,
3:43
that 39 1/2 is pretty low for a modern, modern college game.
3:47
So, you know, I'm probably getting suckered into that
3:49
thing, but I'm I'm going for it. So I'm in on the over.
3:52
I think it actually went up. I, I think you're on the, you
3:54
got a good number there. I think some places at like 40
3:57
1/2 or even 41 now. So nice call there.
4:01
I'm watching the game here, so if we get a lot of scoring, I'll
4:04
I'll break in here. So let's hear from me about this
4:06
game. The better for the rest of the
4:08
show. Hopefully I don't say anything
4:10
about it. I want to hear a word about it
4:12
right. Leave it alone.
4:14
All right, let's go in. Let's just jump right into our
4:17
first picks here. All right, well, we're going to
4:20
start with one of mine here. We've got UTSA Roadrunners
4:25
travelling to take on my bet for the national champions this
4:28
year. So obviously, I think here the
4:31
line is 24 1/2. I actually got it at 21 1/2.
4:35
I would still bet the 24 1/2. Anyway, I think this is going to
4:39
be a tough order for the Roadrunners.
4:42
They lost so much on defense. Texas A&M has that running game.
4:46
I think they can just run them down.
4:47
Even their backups are going to be are going to be pretty angry
4:52
and getting some good yardage here as well.
4:56
Marcel Reed is to be his big announcement.
4:58
Hopefully if they can't cover this.
5:00
I don't feel very good about all my Texas A&M bets that I made a
5:04
couple weeks ago. I don't know if you guys have
5:06
any thoughts on it, but I have 20 -, 21 1/2 spread did go up to
5:11
24 1/2. I still even if I was 24, I'd
5:15
probably still bet it. So if you can get it, we also on
5:17
the bottom. If you're watching us on
5:19
YouTube, thank you. We have all the other sites.
5:22
We have DraftKings, Baileys or valleys rather rivers, whole
5:30
bunch of other ones that I can't even imagine.
5:32
Yeah, I'm looking at it right now.
5:34
Looks like you can still get under 20 forged out everywhere.
5:38
Yeah, FanDuel. In 2021 so.
5:41
Yeah, Caesar's 23 1/2, DraftKings 23 1/2.
5:45
ESPN bet looks like they're 22 1/2.
5:48
So yeah, you got definitely got a good number.
5:51
Yeah, there's still less than 20 fours out there for anybody who
5:53
wants to back you. Yeah.
5:56
So we'll be putting these lines out.
5:57
So if you happen to see one in on one of the platforms that you
5:59
use, feel free to jump on it. We'll give you as much
6:02
information as we can as we move forward.
6:06
Georgia Southern Pete, if this is one of yours.
6:10
It is indeed one of mine. So over under is 51 1/2.
6:16
So you know my thoughts. I mean, I think, you know, there
6:18
there injury wise is pretty pretty, you know, pretty minor,
6:22
which is good. I I think we're going to see a
6:24
pretty pass heavy approach on both sides here, which would not
6:28
surprise me. So I think we're going to have
6:30
high tempo. There's going to be some scoring
6:33
all of that. So, you know, this is one of the
6:35
kind of Contra picks I talked about last week in the week
6:38
zero. I like I like unders early, but
6:42
this is one of the contras to me.
6:43
I think there's going to be scoring.
6:44
I think it's going to be scoring quite a bit.
6:46
So I like the over at 51 1/2 on this game simply because I think
6:51
there's going to be a lot of movement of the ball.
6:52
So that's my thoughts on on this game.
6:54
But I do like the over 51 1/2. Yep, this was the one that I
6:59
looked at. I don't know Darren, if it's
7:00
this one, quite a year old at all.
7:02
I didn't really take a good look at it, but I do think Fresno
7:06
State having a game under their their belt, even though they
7:09
they did not look great. You know, their first drive they
7:13
looked really good. I'm here bashing EJ Warner and
7:16
that he's a turnover machine. And meanwhile he's going 5 for
7:18
five and leading the team to a touchdown right off the bat.
7:22
But then he reverted to the EJ Warner we all know and love.
7:28
But I think Kansas's defense certainly played a little bit
7:30
better than I thought they would.
7:33
They had some secondary issues and and after that first drive,
7:35
he really wasn't able to take take advantage of that.
7:37
But I'm expecting an improved performance here against George
7:41
Southern. George Southern should be able
7:43
to put up some points as well. I mean, they're, they're
7:45
probably a second betting choice to win the Sunbelt East.
7:49
So yeah, I can see lots of points.
7:51
I, I, I look for, I look for first state to maybe run the
7:53
ball a little bit more. I thought Donaldson would get
7:55
more than 11 carries last week. He did not.
7:57
So I expect a nice Little Mix. I think they're going to see EJ
8:01
Warner and his went through 2 picks and a lost fumble last
8:04
week. You might see a little more
8:07
running here, but I'm not sure I feel about George Southern
8:10
defensively. So yeah, I, I like where Pete
8:13
said that on that one. All right.
8:16
Uh oh. Nope, Nope.
8:19
Thought I froze up there for a second.
8:20
Boys, we're good. Game of the week.
8:22
Ah, here we go. Game.
8:24
Of the week. Whatever that's you of the week
8:26
is built WEAK. But you know, Alabama, take down
8:31
America's team in Tallahassee. Pete, I believe this is another
8:34
one of your bets. It is.
8:37
And then this is another over for me.
8:39
I mean, I, I mean, last year Florida State's defense was
8:43
abhorrent, to put it nicely. I don't think they're going to
8:48
be any better and I don't think they're going to fare very well.
8:51
Even if they are a little better, playing against Alabama
8:54
is going to be a problem for them.
8:57
So, you know, FSU's chance of actually doing anything is to
9:00
score because they're going to need to score because Bama is
9:03
going to score. I, I, I think that's what we're
9:06
going to see. I, I don't FSU is definitely
9:08
missing some key players on both sides.
9:10
I think it's a problem. And honestly, I think Alabama is
9:13
going to romp here. I, I, I would not expect this
9:15
game to be close. I expect them to score a lot.
9:17
I do expect Florida State to score a bit as well, right?
9:20
So I like the over here at 50 1/2.
9:22
I think it's a pretty safe bet either way on this.
9:27
So so yeah, I'm going to be watching this game.
9:29
I'm excited. I'm actually kind of excited to
9:31
watch this game to see if Florida State got any better
9:33
because last year was kind of painful to watch.
9:35
So those are my thoughts. You'd hope they get better.
9:39
I mean I. Mean I've been blissfully
9:47
ignoring Florida State in the offseason because, you know, we
9:49
won the offseason last year and look where it got us.
9:51
So I know I looked at the depth chart, you know, they got a
9:56
couple of the kids that I like that stayed actually come back.
9:58
They got the the Jackson kid that they wouldn't let play a
10:01
couple years ago. He's back.
10:03
They got a couple new freshmen. Everyone's really high on didn't
10:06
even take the time to learn the names or numbers at this point.
10:08
They're going to have to show me something before I even go
10:13
anywhere near a betting line on this.
10:15
You know, Castellano was talking smack earlier, I guess, a few
10:18
weeks ago to Alabama. That always works out well.
10:22
So, yeah, So we'll see what happens with this game.
10:25
You know, I got a bottle of Jim Beam ready, so you should.
10:30
Probably not. Watch.
10:33
Keep your cell phones on. I'll be texting you guys
10:35
throughout the game, I'm sure. And that's all I got on this
10:38
one. Darren, how about you?
10:41
You know, went back and forth on it from a from a side point of
10:45
view, I, I, I couldn't come up with nothing.
10:49
I mean, like Florida State cannot possibly be any worse.
10:52
There, there there's certainly an improvement at the
10:54
quarterback position with Castellanos and and Alabama's
10:59
thrown out Ty Simpson. Who the hell knows what what
11:01
you're going to get from him. Like the new OC higher somebody
11:05
who's worked with head coach Ken Dubour in the past.
11:08
Whether that translates to a lot of points in game one remains to
11:11
be seen. So you know, what's weird is I
11:15
was looking at my picks before I came in the room and usually I'm
11:17
kind of anti betting on teams that have unproven quarterbacks.
11:21
All three of my picks I'm about to give out.
11:23
I'm betting on unproven quarterbacks.
11:24
So, so much for that theory. But yeah, I I I went back and
11:30
forth. I got nothing here.
11:31
I hope for your sake, Tim, Florida State looks better.
11:35
You know, I hope for Pete's sake, Alabama puts up a 50
11:39
burger. Yeah, I think it's going to
11:41
happen so. I, I I have no, no lean or bet
11:46
on this game whatsoever. Yeah, we got a little message
11:48
from Danny Dimes saying RIPFSU up here in the chat.
11:52
So he's not he likes the car that on looks like he's probably
11:54
not wrong and Mr. Fahrenheit's back.
11:58
He's did we have any plays with Boise State coming up?
12:01
He's no he's been out here. He's wondering if fashion gently
12:05
was more important than a lot of people thought.
12:07
So I saw they they ran 3 quarterbacks on the first drive
12:11
and only one of them looked like he knew what he was doing.
12:13
So that's not good. Yeah, we all expected a
12:17
downgrade at that position. But this this might be more of
12:20
an epic downgrade than than we thought.
12:24
OK, well, hold on. We've got.
12:25
Let me see oh second and goal looks like Fresno is driving, so
12:34
we'll have to keep we'll keep you posted that's like.
12:39
NC State, yeah, NC State back that up.
12:41
We don't. We don't want.
12:42
Any Oh, that's right, NC State. I'm I'm watching on ESPN, so
12:46
they I'm. Watching Jim Beam preemptively,
12:48
so it's, yeah. Oh, another big game.
12:53
Pete's Team Michigan. Oh God.
12:56
All right, Yeah. All right, yeah.
12:59
So I laid the 34 1/2 here with Michigan.
13:02
And again, I know I just said I don't like betting on unproven
13:05
quarterbacks, but my God, he can't be worse than whatever the
13:09
hell Michigan threw out there in the quarterback position last.
13:11
Year, Hey, we had a quarterback last year.
13:14
Well, technically on the roster, you had multiple people that had
13:17
the QB next to their name on the depth chart, whether they were
13:20
actual quarterbacks. I mean, we all saw Alex Orgy
13:23
fumbling the ball constantly at UNLV last week.
13:26
So we all know how that worked out.
13:28
But I'm just going to say this, this rest of this team is still
13:32
epic in all position groups. They're still going to run the
13:35
ball. They still have an awesome
13:36
offensive line. They'd lost Graham and God drawn
13:41
a blank on the other guy's name, Kenneth Grant on the front line,
13:45
But they've they've got those guys replaced in the portal.
13:47
Linebackers are deep secondary, maybe a minor concern, but I
13:51
love that Rod Moore is back after missing all last year with
13:53
an injury. And look, team is going to pass
13:56
the ball more than we think. And the reason I say that is,
14:00
listen, first of all, I don't think New Mexico is scoring if
14:03
they are maybe a field goal. But I mean, that tells me that
14:07
Michigan really only has to get to 38 to cover this line.
14:10
And I know that a lot of times we say, oh, well, then they're
14:12
going to look ahead. They're not going to show a lot.
14:14
They're going to Oklahoma next week.
14:16
Listen, that's not a conference game when you were as bad
14:18
offensively, at least from a passing standpoint as Michigan
14:21
was. You are going to go out there
14:23
and you are going to put up points every chance you get.
14:26
And if it gets to the point that OK, you've got a big lead and
14:28
Bryce Underwood sits. Mikey Keane's got a little
14:30
something to prove after coming over from Fresno State as well.
14:33
I don't think they're going to have him turn around and hand
14:34
the ball off 3 times. And even if they do, they still
14:37
might score before those 3 plays are up.
14:38
So I am looking for, and again, you know, New Mexico, awful
14:42
defense, doesn't look like it's going to be any better.
14:45
They lost Devin Dampier, so I don't know how the hell this
14:47
team's going to even score any points against this defense,
14:49
which is probably a top five defense right now and probably
14:53
will be a top five defense by the end of the year.
14:55
So I look for this offense to get right pretty damn quick.
14:59
This is the perfect opponent for Michigan to remember what it's
15:02
like to score in the 40s. You know what, I'm going to
15:05
predict A50 burger here. I'm going to say Michigan is
15:07
going to roll 52 to three, maybe something.
15:11
Like. That, but I'm going with the I
15:14
mean, this kid's a five star. He's got to be good at passing
15:17
the ball. So he's going to get a great
15:18
chance because if we learned anything from New Mexico's
15:21
defense, you can pass on them. So just a one unit play,
15:25
Michigan laying the 34 1/2 and I believe that number is still
15:29
readily available. Let me do a quick scan because I
15:33
forgot to bring that up while I was looking.
15:36
Yeah, 30 fours and 1/2 all across the board, 35 at bat
15:40
Rivers, but everything else, 34 1/2 DraftKings even only has -1
15:44
O 8. So yeah, let's do it, baby.
15:48
Michigan 50 burger. Mark it down, Pete.
15:51
I know. Yeah.
15:52
I mean, you can just tell me if I'm crazy or if I'm.
15:54
Wrong I. Just think this team's going to
15:56
score. They have to show that they can
15:58
score because if you go to Oklahoma and play in that
16:01
stadium with against that defense, you cannot show them
16:05
that you cannot put up points and not pass the ball.
16:08
I, I, I, I agree this is a true freshman quarterback in his
16:12
first game. So listen, I every, I've watched
16:16
so many videos and read so much about, about him and everything
16:21
I've read is just like he is truly a specimen standing out
16:27
everything about him that's great.
16:28
He is still a true freshman starting his first game.
16:32
We have no idea what it's going to be like for him to get chased
16:36
by pass rushers in college. Now, that said, to your point,
16:41
the defense stinks on this side of the ball, right?
16:43
So I don't expect a whole lot of that.
16:45
So it's a great game for him to get his feet wet, man, A50 spot.
16:50
I don't know. I mean, that'd be great.
16:51
But yeah, they're going to win the game.
16:53
They're going to win by at least, you know, 2-3 touchdowns.
16:57
I I couldn't touch this thing because I it's too much of an
17:00
unknown. But for me, I, I don't, I don't
17:02
dislike the bad. I mean, I think that's
17:04
everything I hear. That's what should happen.
17:07
I just don't trust it until I see it.
17:08
So as as a fan, that's all I could do.
17:10
So that's my thoughts. Kind of keep misses Ellison
17:13
happy. They better win.
17:15
She got 10A quarterback. Field goal, that's good.
17:19
So it's. Three.
17:20
Yeah, they just lined up for the field goal.
17:21
Excellent. So only three more field goals,
17:25
less touchdowns for that game. Beautiful.
17:26
That's what I want to see. Hi, Darren.
17:30
I think this is one of yours as well.
17:31
We're gonna stick with you. This one I was actually set on
17:35
backing a returning quarterback here.
17:38
However, if you guys are all familiar with another five star
17:41
prospect, Malachi Nelson, who started at USC, then went to
17:44
Boise State, then went to UTEP. He beat out last year's starter
17:48
Skyler Locklear, and last week was given the starting QB job
17:52
for UTEP. So they're getting 6 here.
17:58
Listen, we, we all loved Utah State.
17:59
They were like the arena ball team of the NCAA.
18:02
They scored a lot of they averaged 32 points a game over
18:05
460 yards. The defense actually gave up
18:08
more points in that and more yards in that per game.
18:12
So Bronco Mendenhall just left his team like late December to
18:16
take over. Where the hell did he go?
18:19
New Mexico team we just talked about or No, not New Mexico.
18:23
Where did he go? No, he went to hear from New
18:26
Mexico. That's right.
18:26
So he all right. So he is the new head coach
18:28
here, but he really has not. I mean, in his other stops, he
18:32
he's had some pieces to build around.
18:35
He doesn't really have that here, especially defensively.
18:38
He still has the old Utah quarterback.
18:41
Was he? They call him the pig farmer, I
18:43
believe. Yes, Sir.
18:45
Yeah. So I mean, that helps, but
18:49
again, you know, we talk about defenses being really bad and
18:51
not having a whole lot of people come back.
18:54
This defense only has three starters.
18:56
So you think, well, maybe they can improve, but they, they kept
18:58
the same defensive coordinator. So you just gonna have another
19:01
terrible defense just with different guys because you kept
19:04
the coordinator. I, you know, I, I have no idea,
19:08
but Malagai Nelson, you know, much like when a horse drops in
19:11
class, they improve. You know, he couldn't cut it at
19:14
USC, got limited work at Boise. Maybe being down here he's going
19:19
to go off and show us why he's the five star prospect.
19:23
I don't hate what UTEP is bringing back offensively.
19:26
They got that Charlotte transfer running back as Sean Wilson.
19:29
He had over 6 yards carry last year.
19:31
Top 2 wide receivers are back as well.
19:33
So Nelson is going to have some experienced targets to throw to
19:36
and the defense actually has a lot of experience coming back
19:39
and they've got a new defensive coordinator who had a top 15
19:43
defense in the FCS at Montana State last year.
19:45
So whether that transfers to this level, I guess we're going
19:49
to find out. But this this game opened at 3
19:52
1/2 and got up to 5 1/2 and six in some places.
19:55
I I thought maybe it would drop when Nelson got the starting
19:58
gig. It didn't budget.
19:59
So I'm going to take UTEP with the six points here.
20:04
Yeah, I do also have a win total bet on them over 5 1/2.
20:08
That's a plus money. I wasn't initially sure that
20:10
this was going to be one of their wins, but maybe with the
20:14
upgrading quarterback and a bad defense on the other side, they
20:17
they can get this done. But I expect them to keep it
20:19
within the six. So I got another unit on UTEP
20:21
+6. All right, well, we had Danny
20:24
Dimes getting on FSUA little bit that Mister Parent I didn't hear
20:28
with a little Yeah here at the Cowboys fan good news today,
20:36
everyone's favorite general manager.
20:38
Yes. And I just make a comment as a
20:41
Cowboy fan and I know this is completely irrelevant for the
20:44
show. You guys know I've been anti
20:46
Jerry Jones for for quite some time long time now.
20:50
Two things. I mean you got a couple of first
20:51
round draft picks. OK that's fine.
20:53
Better than getting nothing. Do I think the trade still
20:55
sucks? Yes.
20:57
But it's not like their defense was any good last year with him.
21:01
So why overpay DAC and this guy you know now?
21:06
Green Bay picks are probably going to be late first round,
21:08
which doesn't really help, but I'll be rooting against Green
21:11
Bay for the foreseeable future. That is fair, That is very fair.
21:16
You know, but yeah, I not, I would rather they trade and get
21:20
something then not be able to resign him.
21:23
That amount of money is insane, but good for Parsons.
21:27
Good for him, yeah. But it's not like the defense
21:29
was getting us to the Super Bowl.
21:31
That's that's means a rebuild so bad.
21:34
They really need a rebuild. They need an actual the
21:37
ownership they right, they need an actual general general
21:40
manager and they need to rebuild because that both sides of the
21:42
ball are just bad. I mean that just that's not
21:44
good. I mean, offensively they should
21:46
be okay, but the problem is they still won't stop anybody.
21:49
Yeah, but the quarterback sucks. I mean, at the end of the day,
21:51
he's always going to choke. Well.
21:52
He's great in the regular season, but thankfully he won't
21:54
get a chance to choke in the playoffs because they're not
21:56
going. Yeah, exactly.
21:58
So their first round pick for the next two years should be
22:01
really good. Hopefully Green Bay will have a
22:03
crappier either this year or next year.
22:05
They'll get another decent pick. But.
22:06
Fantastic. Yeah.
22:07
If you get a really good pick because you suck, that's one
22:09
thing. But if you get a good pick
22:10
because somebody else. Sucks, that's even better.
22:13
I mean, Green Bay, if Green Bay misses the playoffs, then okay,
22:16
you can say all right, well, that's a good deal because
22:17
they'll be picking twice in the top half of the draft.
22:20
But we'll see. Whatever I hate.
22:23
Jared. Well, Danny Dine, he chimed in
22:25
again. He loves to trade for 'cause I
22:27
guess he's a he's a Giants fan, so go figure out.
22:30
Well then he understands bad front offices and terrible
22:33
draft. At least the Cowboys have decent
22:35
draft picks. But, you know, they just don't,
22:36
you know, just screw it up all the time anyway.
22:40
Gonna come in, gonna come into the last one of my picks for
22:43
this week. He got LSU and Clemson.
22:46
When I looked at this game, I know Clemson obviously has, I
22:51
would say more talent, even though it's, you know, with a
22:53
team like LSU, you know, you're kind of splitting hairs there.
22:58
I for me, it came down to the coaches and this is kind of like
23:01
the James Franklin ball. I don't really like either of
23:03
these two coaches outside the lines.
23:06
Like I've always said, outside the lines, outside the stadium.
23:08
Dabo Sweeney is one of the best inside the lines with the way
23:14
some of the decisions he makes and stuff.
23:15
I'm just not entirely sure on Brian Kelly's not much better,
23:21
but I think he is a little bit better.
23:23
So with this, I got the plus 150 I believe, and I took LSU money
23:29
line on the road. You know, I get an SEC team, you
23:35
know, let's see if all the hype is what it is here because this
23:38
is supposed to be. A lot of people are picking
23:40
Clemson as a dark horse for a championship.
23:43
So yeah, I just went ahead. I just took LSU with the money
23:47
line. I think they'll win the game out
23:48
right and I will yield you guys for questions, comments,
23:54
insults, etcetera. What you got for me?
23:59
Yeah, I mean, I, I, I looked at the game, I, I, I didn't touch
24:04
it. I think it's going to be fun as
24:05
hell to watch. But I I really, to your point
24:08
with the coaches, right, So we've got basically James
24:11
Franklin the second on one side and we got another guy who can't
24:15
seem to be consistent or keep his shit together on the other
24:19
side. Yeah.
24:21
I don't know what to expect. I think it's going to be fun as
24:23
how to watch, but I I absolutely have no idea what to expect out
24:26
of this game. I couldn't even flip a coin for
24:28
me. I don't know who's going to win
24:29
this game. I literally no idea.
24:31
So I think it'll be fun, but I have nothing more than that.
24:35
Any thoughts Aaron? Much like Pete, I took a look at
24:39
this game in hopes to have a pick here for one of these three
24:44
top 10 matchups. I, I, I came up with nothing
24:49
like one. One day I would look at it and
24:50
be like, wow, the LSU's defense should be really improved.
24:54
You know, Clemson still has to show me that they can stop the
24:56
run because they, you know, in their losses last year, they got
24:59
torched on the ground. Then I'm thinking OK well
25:02
Clemson brought in the OC or the OC the DC from oh God where the
25:08
hell did he come from? Now I'm drawing a blank on him
25:11
too to fix that. So now it's like OK well is
25:14
their defense improved? I don't know.
25:16
I love Nussmeyer but unfortunately I like Klubnik as
25:20
well. But yeah, Tim, I don't know if
25:23
you remember our very first show, we did a national
25:25
championship preview back in 2023 and we're like, yeah, let's
25:27
each put out a long shot and I bet on Clemson to win the
25:30
national championship. They were like +2000 and they
25:33
went out and lost to Duke week 1.
25:35
So I've been very anti Clemson ever since show #1 So between
25:40
that, the fact that you have LSU money line and the fact that
25:43
Pete has Clemson under their win total as a future bet I.
25:48
Am double interest here. Yeah, triple, I am totally
25:51
purple and yellow this week. I will be rooting as a fan for
25:54
the credibility of the show and my anti Clemson stance and yeah
26:01
go well, I can't say go Tigers. Aren't they both the Tigers?
26:03
Yeah, go go purple and yellow. Both purple.
26:06
And yellow, yes. Well, Danny Dimes likes my pick,
26:08
he chimed in again. He thinks that's a great pick,
26:10
so we'll. That's because I believe he's
26:11
got Nussmeyer winning the Heisman.
26:14
Yeah, I think he's he's got, he's got his interests.
26:17
He he knows why he's agreed. Right, getting down to it, Cal
26:22
and Oregon State. Peter, this is yours, I believe.
26:26
Yeah. It it is mine.
26:27
So over under 50 1/2. As we talked about back in the
26:32
conference previews. I think Cal is hot garbage.
26:37
I don't think either one of these offenses is going to be
26:39
very explosive. I think they're going to both be
26:41
very methodical in what they do. There are some injury issues on
26:46
the Oregon State side which I think will slow them down as
26:49
well. I think that this is definitely
26:52
not going to be a shootout. This is going to be a grind.
26:55
And at that 50 1/2 number, it that it fits, it fits the grind,
26:59
right? Being under that makes a lot of
27:00
sense to me. I could see something like, I
27:03
don't know, 2024 to 24 to 20 or something like that.
27:07
Would not surprise me. It's not going to be a very
27:09
exciting game. I'm not going to watch it other
27:11
than watching the score because I have 0 interest in this game
27:15
from a from a viewer perspective.
27:16
But from the betting perspective, I think it screams
27:18
under all day long. So I'm putting 1 unit on the
27:21
under 50 1/2. Yeah.
27:25
Any thoughts? I agree with the Cal Trainwreck
27:28
sentiment yeah, apparently from from what I've read it, it's
27:34
it's just really bad there. I don't and and I I have not dug
27:38
into Oregon State enough to to form it.
27:41
I I didn't even look at this game honestly, but I just
27:44
remember ACC preview Cal bad, Cal bad.
27:48
That's it. That's all I got.
27:49
What was? Good, I think.
27:51
Was Cal bad Move on to the next team, yeah.
27:53
Crush totals last year. Whatever he says and involves.
27:56
Cal. Cal Bad, Yeah, I'm on board.
28:00
We got one more pick. Here we go.
28:07
Oh boy. Here we go, I'll.
28:11
Go because this is my pick. So, so we, we, we had a little
28:14
fun with this game this week. So we've talked Notre Dame
28:19
multiple times in the offseason leading up to to the regular
28:23
season here. And, and Pete and I, I've
28:25
mentioned this game a couple times and we kind of both agree
28:29
that Notre Dame really could roll here.
28:34
And I get the spread sitting at 2 1/2 because of the
28:36
quarterback. Well, we know it's CJ Carr.
28:39
How's he gonna perform on the road?
28:40
His first game hasn't thrown a pass.
28:42
All right, that's cool. Every position group around him
28:47
is excellent. All right, you've got 2:00.
28:50
You got possibly one of the best RB duos in the country with
28:54
Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price.
28:57
The receivers which nobody knew last year all of a sudden looks
29:00
really good with with great house coming out of nowhere in
29:03
the in the playoff games. You got a couple of transfers
29:07
that came over Will Pauling from Wisconsin, Malachi Fields from
29:11
Virginia. Jordan Faison is still there.
29:13
So this receiving group went from being non existent to
29:15
actually really, really deep. And the offensive line is one of
29:20
the best offensive lines in the country.
29:22
So he's going to have a lot of help around him.
29:25
Now that being said, the other side of the ball defensively,
29:29
Miami did not have a great defense, especially in the
29:34
secondary. However, they brought in a ton
29:35
of transfers. They have a new defensive
29:37
coordinator who came over from Minnesota.
29:39
I expect that unit to be better, but Notre Dame's defense is,
29:45
yeah, they lost a couple of their stars to the NFL, but this
29:47
is still an incredibly deep group.
29:49
You got to remember they had so many injuries last year, so all
29:52
these guys that are filling in now have had tons of game
29:54
experience on both sides of the ball.
29:56
So I still think Notre Dame is going to have a top five defense
29:59
this year when it's all said and done.
30:01
You look at Miami offensively, they are not going to be the
30:04
Miami that they were last year, OK?
30:06
All their skill players left. Cam Ward's gone.
30:08
Damian Martinez is gone. Xavier Restrepo, Isaiah Horton,
30:13
all those receivers gone online, excellent.
30:16
They brought in a ton of talent on the online.
30:18
I think that's going to be their strongest position group
30:20
overall. But I mean, Carson Beck is not
30:25
Cam Ward. OK, he had for him an off year
30:28
last year, Georgia led the nation in drops.
30:31
That certainly didn't help his stats.
30:32
But now he was injured, he missed some time.
30:35
So he he didn't get a full offseason of practice with all
30:38
these new receivers. We don't know how good these new
30:41
receivers are or if he's got any.
30:47
Yeah, I was getting to that. Jeff, thank you for that
30:49
comment. But yeah, I, I mean, Mark
30:52
Fletcher's going to be their running backs.
30:54
I don't know what to expect from this team offensively.
30:59
I don't even know if I trust Carson Beck more than I trust CJ
31:02
Carr, to be honest with you. From, from what I've seen, at
31:04
least I know CJ Carr is healthy going in.
31:06
I don't know what to expect from Beck, but I think what's going
31:10
to happen is they're going to load up the box because they
31:14
know Notre Dame's going to try and run the ball to start with.
31:17
So CJ Carr, those first couple of drives, he's going to have to
31:20
hit some passes. And if he does, this is going to
31:23
get ugly because Miami is not going to know what's coming.
31:25
So I went and and yeah, Jeff brought up the the coaching.
31:30
Yeah, I would trust Marcus Freeman more than most coaches.
31:34
Then I would trust most coaches over Mario Cristobal.
31:37
So we know there's always a game where the Hurricanes crystal
31:40
ball themselves. Usually it's much later on in a
31:44
much more key moment in season. But I just think Notre Dame is a
31:49
much deeper team than they were last year.
31:50
And this team got to the national championship last year.
31:53
And I I, I know there's some Miami people out there that are
31:55
like, oh, well, Notre Dame, they play in Indiana now.
31:58
They got to go to Florida in, you know, early September and
32:01
it's going to be hot. We know what else was hot?
32:04
Texas A&M when Notre Dame went down there in Week 1 and who
32:07
collapsed in the fourth quarter. Yeah, it was the Texas A&M
32:09
defense. It wasn't Notre Dame.
32:10
So don't give me this, whether it's humid, bullshit, because
32:13
that obviously does not affect Notre Dame either.
32:16
So I had a little fun here. I didn't want to lay the 2 1/2
32:20
at -110 so I played a little alternate line.
32:24
Here. I'm laying 6 1/2 at a nice plus
32:28
171 on DraftKings. Love it.
32:31
I I think that this could be A2 touchdown win for the Irish
32:34
here. I think top to bottom they're
32:36
the better team. If CJ Carr can just hit like 60%
32:40
of his passes this this could get ugly for Miami.
32:42
So give me the Irish 6 1/2 alternate 9 ultimate line lice.
32:46
Nice. Plus Price fighting.
32:49
Marcus Freeman's are going to roll Sunday night.
32:51
They aren't getting all scientific.
32:54
I'm telling you, I'm just trying to anybody that wants to come in
32:57
the comments and say, well, Miami has hot weather.
32:58
Yeah, I, I, I don't care. So the.
33:01
Alternative lines. They're under grass, trenching
33:05
over here, it's like. Once the week 0 curse ended.
33:07
I mean, I'm just out of control. He's out, Pete, any thoughts on
33:14
this game? I could not agree more.
33:17
I think Notre Dame and Michigan are in very similar situations
33:19
right now with a new quarterback starting out, right.
33:22
So it's that that's the question marks around the quarterbacks in
33:24
both teams. Outside of that, the teams
33:26
around those quarterbacks are excellent.
33:28
I think Notre Dame is a light years better team than Miami on
33:32
both sides of the ball. So to be clear to our listeners
33:35
and viewers, the only thing I'm betting on looking at this year,
33:38
like last year are over unders. I'm not betting anything else,
33:41
but I would lay those points all day long.
33:46
I agree with Darren 100%. I think Notre Dame is going to
33:49
pound them. I think it could get ugly later
33:52
in that game. I don't think Miami has the
33:54
offense to respond to what Notre Dame will do, especially against
33:58
that Notre Dame defense. I think Carson Beck is going to
34:01
be running for his life. I don't know if he's going to
34:03
make it through the game because he's already potentially
34:05
injured, so that could be a problem.
34:07
I think this is going to be a really ugly game for Miami.
34:11
So I I could not agree more. I think it's a great bet.
34:13
I love that alternative line. I would lay that that I would
34:16
lay those points too. That's that's an awesome bet.
34:19
This is one of the two or three teams that would have me rooting
34:23
for Notre Dame. So yeah, go Notre Dame, go Irish
34:25
# them. I hope that comes true.
34:29
You know, cannot go there. So let's head on to our RPO
34:34
segment. First game we got Texas.
34:37
And who are they playing, Pete? Forget who they're playing some.
34:41
Team, I don't know. They, they, they, they're, I
34:43
don't know, they're, they're savages.
34:44
They, they live in Ohio. I think.
34:46
I don't know, yes. Plus 1 1/2.
34:49
What do you guys think about this one?
34:52
I mean depends. What day you ask us?
34:55
That is fair. I mean honestly, I there is
34:59
nothing that I would love more to watch Arch take that team
35:03
into the shoe and pummel those disgusting things, right?
35:10
I would love to see that. I don't have confidence that
35:15
will happen though. So much for when they go low,
35:18
you go high I guess. Yeah, I don't know, but I just
35:22
don't. I think it's going to be a very
35:25
good game. I think it's going to.
35:26
I actually think it's going to turn into a defensive game.
35:29
That's, that's my perspective. So I think, you know, the, the
35:31
under was a little interesting to me, but I can't, I can't
35:33
touch this thing. I, I can't wait to watch it.
35:37
I, I, I want to see, I mean, I talked about it a couple weeks
35:41
ago. I talked about it.
35:42
No, I did not last week, but a couple weeks ago.
35:44
What concerned me about Texas was Sark's inability to, to, to
35:52
restructure what he was doing. You know, when he when he was,
35:55
when they were not doing well against Georgia twice, he could
35:59
not find a way around that concerned me, right?
36:01
But now he's had a whole flipping offseason, a plan for
36:04
this thing, right? So if he can't make that offense
36:07
with that man work against this team, then that that's
36:11
concerning to me. So thinks it'd be a great game.
36:13
I could go either way, honestly. But I would love to see Texas
36:17
just rail them. I think Sarkeesia is for me is
36:20
like James Franklin Light. Like he's not quite that bad,
36:23
but I still haven't seen too many what I would consider great
36:28
coaching jobs. Like you look at the game be
36:30
like, oh, Sarkisian really coached his ass off there.
36:33
So I don't know Darren. Any thoughts on this one?
36:35
Well, to to echo to Pete's concerns about Sark, I mean, I,
36:39
I brought up before, you know, the national semifinal, you're
36:43
down 7 yet 1st and goal at the one.
36:45
You don't run a single play with Arch Manning.
36:47
I mean, what's wrong with you? Come on, that's that's a no
36:50
brainer right there. I mean, I'm a fucking moron and
36:52
I would have put Arch Manning in at least two of those plays
36:54
because he probably would have scored by then from a yard out.
36:56
But. Anyway.
36:58
And you know, I, I the slightest lean, I mean like the slightest
37:03
lean, I would lean Texas here. I just one, I can't trust Brian
37:11
Hartline to call plays. He was an offense coordinator 2
37:13
years ago, but he was not calling plays in 2023.
37:15
This is his first chance to call some plays.
37:18
And don't get us started on Matt Patricia taking over the defense
37:21
at Ohio State. A defense that has to replace 8
37:24
starters. Yeah, he's terrible.
37:28
Yeah, the the man that Belichick made that's done nothing since
37:31
he hasn't worked with. In like 9 years he hasn't had a
37:35
decent. Defense, I, I live in Michigan
37:37
to, to watch him with the Lions and how pathetic that team.
37:40
I mean, it was awful. I mean, this man should not be
37:43
coaching. So I agree.
37:45
I I I want to be arch light that defense on.
37:48
Like I said, the slightest lean to Texas, but then again, if you
37:50
told me well, Ohio State's got the best offensive and defensive
37:53
player in all of football, I would agree with you, 100.
37:56
Percent. I'd argue with that.
37:58
And that and these are the thoughts that made me change my
38:01
mind, I think for seven days in a row, but as soon as today and
38:05
you're asking me slight lean to Texas, but I I would not bet
38:09
this with either of your guys. Yeah, absolutely.
38:12
With your alternate line, I was awesome.
38:16
Has me thinking maybe explore an alternate line with Texas -1 1/2
38:20
and see what the what kind. Of you don't ever want to go
38:23
through 0. Tim, yeah, that's tough.
38:25
On the other side of that zero is a really tough dig.
38:28
I don't know. Hey by the way, sidebar 3 to
38:31
nothing still at the end of the first.
38:32
Quarter. Nice.
38:32
I was just going to rock it in. How is it?
38:38
Mississippi State, Southern Miss?
38:40
Darren, let's start with you. What you got?
38:43
I'm not really sure how a team that finished dead last in the
38:47
SEC, the two touchdown favorite over Marshall version 2 point O
38:51
here. That just seems kind of high.
38:54
God, yeah. You know what?
38:59
I would, I would take Southern Miss here, even though I was
39:03
looking at my sheet earlier. My sheet would tell me to bet on
39:05
Mississippi State, but then I can't trust them.
39:10
No. Yeah, No, I would.
39:12
I would. I don't know if I would run to
39:13
the window, I might casually stroll with a beverage in one
39:17
hand and a little bit of money in the other hand.
39:19
But you get 13 1/2 still. Yeah, I I would take a shot on
39:24
Southern Miss. I like Marshall version 2.0.
39:28
Peter. Yeah, I toyed with the over, but
39:31
it's a big number, right, 60 1/2.
39:33
I mean, I think it's going to be scoring.
39:34
So it's just that that number, to me, it's just a little, it
39:37
was it, it was not the number I wanted to see.
39:39
I do think it's going to be a lot of scoring, but to me, it's
39:42
a little high. And I to Terrance's point, I
39:45
don't necessarily trust what Mississippi, Mississippi State's
39:47
going to do. I think they'll probably win the
39:50
game, but I, I'm not quite sure what we're going to see out of
39:53
them. So I stayed away.
39:55
Yeah, as much as I love Crom and Oak and Fluff over there at
40:00
Mississippi now, yeah, this is 1 I I want to stay away from.
40:03
So we'll just move on to Northwestern at Tulane.
40:07
Peter, any thoughts? I mean, plus 6IN Northwestern,
40:10
that's seems low, I think. I think Northwestern's.
40:14
Horrible. Yeah, Northwestern's horrible.
40:16
I mean, typical Northwestern. They're going to run the ball,
40:19
they're going to do what they're going to do.
40:21
You know, over under 45 1/2. I toyed with it.
40:24
I actually was leaning under a bit, but that number's a little
40:29
low. And so I didn't, I mean, if it
40:31
was like 47 and a half, 48, I would definitely have played the
40:37
under at that 45 1/2. It's getting a little close to
40:40
the to the barrier for me. So, you know, I think it's it's
40:44
not going to be an interesting game.
40:46
Honestly, I don't want to watch it, don't love that number, but
40:50
I do think it's going to be a low scoring game.
40:51
So those are my thoughts. Aaron.
40:55
To piggyback on that thought, I agree with the low scoring game,
40:58
but Northwestern plus six actually looks looks somewhat
41:01
appealing here. When we had talked about that,
41:03
remember they got Preston Stone as their QB now.
41:06
So if he's 100% healthy, I expect him to look somewhat like
41:09
the 2023 version of Preston Stone.
41:12
And I think defensively they will get better because now they
41:14
actually have some semblance of an offense.
41:17
I know Pete and I were very anti Tulane when we did our American
41:20
preview. They just lost too much.
41:21
I don't know why they're one of the favorites to win the
41:23
conference. I don't think they're even going
41:25
to be in the game. But again, you know, public
41:29
looks at their home favorites if you hold out till till Saturday
41:33
or is this a Friday game or is this a Saturday game?
41:35
I don't even remember. It is a Saturday game, I think.
41:38
Is that a Saturday? I would hold out, see if you can
41:40
get 6 1/2 or maybe even 7, but Northwestern intrigues me here.
41:46
And here's the game we talked about a couple times during our
41:49
conference previews, Toledo and Kentucky.
41:52
Toledo getting 9 1/2 at Kentucky.
41:55
This was one we were all, I think all three of us were
41:57
leaning Toledo. I think we, I'm thinking about
41:59
running through the window with this one, taking the 9 1/2 with
42:03
Toledo. I don't know about you guys.
42:05
Yeah, I, I, I'd walk slowly to the window because when we first
42:09
looked at this game, it was 10. It it went all the way down to 7
42:12
1/2 and now it's slowly working its way back up.
42:15
If you take your time getting to the window on game day, you
42:18
could get 10. I would feel more comfortable if
42:20
that line got back to 10. If it does get to 10, yeah, then
42:25
then it begins sprinting and take that, take that 10 with
42:30
Toledo. Actually while you're while
42:31
Pete's talking. I'm going to see if that's 10
42:32
anywhere. You know what you got?
42:34
Yeah, interesting. Right.
42:35
So you know, so I'm only doing over unders, right, 47 1/2.
42:41
I was leaning under that aside, right.
42:43
I agree what Tim said. I this is going to be
42:46
interesting. I actually think I'm not betting
42:50
it, but I actually think Toledo has an opportunity to win this
42:54
game outright. Now, will they go in there and
42:56
do it? I don't know.
42:57
But I do think they're the right type of team the the way they
43:02
play that could go in there and win this game outright.
43:06
So the money line is intriguing. I'm going to keep an eye on it
43:10
as we get closer just because I I, I'd like this Toledo team and
43:16
and I think it could be pretty interesting.
43:18
So I've done nothing so far, but I think they're, I mean with 10,
43:23
I would take that all day even, you know, what are we 9 1/2?
43:27
Definitely. I mean, I think I, I would take
43:29
the points once again, not betting it, but I would take the
43:31
points. But honestly, the money line
43:33
intrigues me here so. Hey Pete, I'm giving his
43:36
thoughts. Check FanDuel because This site
43:38
is telling me that Fanduel's got a 10 1/2 and a lot of other
43:42
books have 10. I don't.
43:44
I don't. I know sometimes mine and yours
43:45
FanDuel have different but I'm seeing a lot of 10s now.
43:48
Yeah, let me take. A look, maybe there, maybe there
43:50
are some 10s out there, but if you can get to, I'm very down on
43:54
Kentucky. They're new starters.
43:56
Zach Calzada don't don't really like him a lot either.
44:01
This is this is ripe for an upset man.
44:03
This is. I'm telling this is.
44:04
Right. Oh, and I'm looking right now.
44:07
Give me a second if. Toledo gets this.
44:09
We looked at their schedule there.
44:10
There's an undefeated possibility if they can somehow
44:13
pull this off. I know.
44:15
That schedule's pretty interesting.
44:17
So I mean that that's intriguing to me.
44:18
I I don't want to watch that game.
44:19
So I'm very intrigued by that. Hold on, let me see.
44:22
While you're checking that, we'll move on.
44:24
We got Marshall at Georgia, Darren, Georgia, even 39 1/2 I
44:28
got here. You know, I tried to find some
44:30
games for this segment and the problem in week 1 is there's a
44:33
lot of good teams playing not so good teams and there there's a
44:37
lot of spreads that are insane. Like you see this little 4 game
44:39
run that we're about to talk about.
44:42
You know, I, I read summer Kirby Smart really doesn't run it up
44:46
early on, you know, first couple weeks of the season, just they
44:49
kind of just like figure some things out.
44:51
And I think with Stockton that that trend could actually hold
44:54
here. Of course, the flip side of that
44:58
is they could they could put up 50 by accident, not even trying,
45:01
but 39 1/2 seems high. I would hold my nose and hope
45:07
that somehow marginal can get in the end zone and, you know,
45:12
maybe this ends up like 41 to 7 and they cover.
45:16
But I, I would I would not run to bet Marshall.
45:21
But Kirby usually doesn't usually doesn't rub it in like
45:25
our next coach. Yeah, we're going to talk about
45:28
likes to do so. I mean, if you really want to
45:31
hold your nose and vomit a handful of times for over the
45:34
course of 3 1/2 hours, Yeah, Take a shower, Marshall.
45:37
The hell. By the way, to your to your
45:39
question, Toledo's getting 10 1/2 right now on FanDuel.
45:42
That is such a juicy, beautiful man.
45:48
That's a lot of points. I love that.
45:50
Well, if you add that, drop it in the comments after the video.
45:52
So I'll probably add that. I mean, I don't what I said I
45:55
promised I'm only going to bet over under.
45:57
So that's whatever. But but that is a juicy number.
46:01
That's crazy. And what's the next game we got?
46:05
Oh, our favorite coach, Penn State and Nevada.
46:10
I'll, I'll let you guys start. What you guys got?
46:14
We go with Pete. I mean, Penn State better win
46:18
this game and they, they better win this game pretty handily,
46:21
right at, at the end of the day, I, I, I mean, was it, is that 44
46:26
1/2? That is 44 1/2, yes.
46:29
Sir, I mean, the older under 7 1/2, so they stayed in.
46:32
Nevada's going to do absolutely nothing.
46:35
But their offense is abhorrent, so that's not surprising.
46:37
Penn State's defense is suffocating, so that's not
46:40
surprising. And so this is kind of similar,
46:43
like you were talking about Michigan, right?
46:45
So, you know, maybe Nevada can tweak, you know, squeak out
46:48
three points, Penn State's probably going to score 50 or
46:51
something and just pound the living hell out of them.
46:53
So, yeah, I mean, I don't think there's any question what the
46:57
outcome is going to be on this thing.
46:58
It's just a matter of, you know, what is James dude is he does he
47:01
pull back the throttle? And so that's what like numbers
47:04
like this 57 1/2 over under. The reason I won't touch it is
47:08
because you never know, especially early in the season,
47:11
you know, they get up by 30 points or something.
47:13
He's going to pull back the throttle.
47:14
He's not going to put it, He's not going to endanger his
47:16
players. So to me, that's an under
47:19
because if they get up, because Nevada's not going to score
47:21
shit, right? And they're not going to do
47:23
anything. So it's all in Penn State's
47:25
hands. And so, I mean, the under is
47:27
intriguing simply because I think James will pull back.
47:30
So that's my thought on that game.
47:33
Anything else, Pete or Darren, we'll move on.
47:35
No, I wouldn't touch this game please.
47:36
Carry on. Damn, this straight at USC
47:41
they're getting 35 and a halfs, slightly less than about us
47:44
getting at Penn State. Darren, any thoughts with this
47:47
one? Yeah.
47:48
US CS going to going to roll here.
47:51
Yeah, this this is going to be I'm I'm not betting it because
47:54
like Pete had mentioned with Penn State, USC gets up a ton.
47:59
Jane, my via sits a lot of other skilled positions sit who knows
48:03
what Missouri State can do. You know, and they're they're
48:05
one of the unknowns coming in from the FCS.
48:07
Who knows if they're going to surprise and get maybe 14 points
48:10
here. But you know, USC is is probably
48:14
going to put up 50 here. So I would take USCI mean maybe
48:18
I would see maybe you can get 35 even.
48:22
But yeah, I could see a six touchdown win here for USC
48:26
pretty easy all. Right, we got the see Georgia
48:29
State and home. Miss Peter, let's start with you
48:33
on this one. Georgia State getting 35 1/2.
48:36
Yeah, I mean, I barely looked at it.
48:38
I mean, this wasn't even hitting my radar so much.
48:41
I fully expect that old miss Will will will beat them pretty
48:45
handily and see the whole thing with these big, with these non
48:48
conference early season games with these big, big lines, man,
48:52
they're tough. They're tough to bat right,
48:55
because it's hard. Once again, you don't know who,
48:57
how how long people are going to stay in what's going to go on.
49:00
You know, it's it's just tough, right?
49:02
And it makes these over. I mean, I tend when, especially
49:04
when these numbers are bigger with the over unders.
49:07
I tend to love the unders because at at least for the most
49:09
part, any coach who's thinking about the whole season, which
49:12
they largely are, are going to kind of start to ramp it back
49:16
and rest some players and just do the right thing.
49:18
And so the, but then again, if a team is so much better than the
49:21
other team, the second team guys going to beat the crap out of
49:24
their team too. So it's, it's hard to, it's hard
49:27
to vet that. So I, I just, with these big
49:28
lines, I just try to stay away. And I, I did not like the over
49:32
under number. So I've got nothing on this one.
49:34
I'm kind of betting with the coach.
49:36
I'm really leaning Ole Miss. I was thinking Lane Kiffin, if
49:38
he could drop 50 on somebody, he's going to do it.
49:42
Put up a lot of points last year off you know, obviously he had
49:44
the quarterback. But yeah, I maybe casually soul
49:50
and if you don't trip on anything, get up to the window
49:52
and I've laid a 35 1/2 at all miss.
49:55
I think they I think they covered pretty easily.
49:57
Good God, N Canada, NC State scored two touchdowns already in
50:00
the second quarter. So they're trying, they're
50:02
trying real hard to screw me here.
50:05
We're not going to have that. So all right, continue.
50:07
All right, let's keep going before B has a heart attack
50:09
here. We got Hawaii at Arizona getting
50:11
17 1/2, Darren. I I tried to keep an eye on the
50:18
Hawaii Stanford game on the YouTube TV multi view and my
50:22
God, how far back did these two teams set football?
50:27
I mean Hawaii's quarterback actually looked legit.
50:31
I had some concerns, especially that first drive where it's the
50:36
ball in the end zone, gets sacked, fumble, Stanford gets a
50:39
touchdown. But to his credit, he gutted it
50:41
out, led the team to win, but he could barely walk in the
50:46
second-half. So I have to assume that if he
50:49
even plays, he's not 100%. Yeah.
50:53
And I'm glad for Pete because I know he's got over 5 1/2.
50:56
So that Stanford win was huge. Because I think this is this is
50:59
AL. Because I think if he's not
51:01
healthy, why would you put him out there?
51:05
You know, just let Arizona roll, let your quarterback get healthy
51:10
and get ready for next week, whoever you got.
51:12
But, yeah, I I think this one, this one, this one looks bad for
51:15
Hawaii. I would take Arizona here.
51:17
Yeah. And we got Utah -5 1/2 at UCLA.
51:22
A pretty interesting line. Peter, what do you got on this
51:24
one? Hold on.
51:25
I want to. I want to talk about Hawaii for
51:26
one second. So yeah, I mean no.
51:28
You're getting wow, they're not things you.
51:31
Arizona, Arizona's going to roll.
51:33
There's there's no question about that.
51:34
But I did say last week, Hawaii at home is dangerous.
51:38
Now, Stanford is hot garbage. It didn't matter at the end of
51:42
the day, right? I don't care who Hawaii plays at
51:45
home. It's dangerous, right?
51:47
So you don't want to go there. And so I was not surprised at
51:51
all with what they did last week.
51:52
And and, and kudos to the quarterback for dragging his ass
51:55
through that thing because he really, really did drag that
51:58
team to a victory. And that was pretty, pretty cool
52:00
to see. So that that's enough.
52:02
That one Hawaii on the road, totally different story.
52:04
They're going to get pumped, right?
52:06
So it doesn't doesn't matter. And just to disagree with Pete's
52:08
point, you don't want to go there.
52:09
You do want to go there, but just not to play football.
52:12
That's. Right, right.
52:14
A great vacation there. I would love to go there, but
52:17
not to play. Football, you know, if your team
52:19
goes there and that's the week you tweak A hammy or something
52:21
and you can't play so you sit around the beach or something.
52:23
That sounds just terrible, right I?
52:24
Would go for that time to go. Right, right, All right.
52:28
Utah, UCLA. Darren.
52:31
I thought they were going to start with Pete, but yeah, I'm,
52:33
I'm excited. I'm, I hope this game's on TV
52:35
because you got Devin Dampier against Nico.
52:38
Nico, I'm a leave in Tennessee. This should be fun, man.
52:42
I, I, I wouldn't touch this game because I, I don't know who
52:47
Nico's going to throw to and I don't know how Devin Dampier is
52:50
going to do, You know, stepping up against the Big 10 defense.
52:54
That was actually not too bad last year, but yeah, I'm I would
52:58
love to watch this one like stand alone have nothing else
53:02
on. So I would love to see how these
53:03
two Q BS play here with with their new schools.
53:06
I I'm really looking for this is this is a game I'm not betting
53:08
on, but it's probably the one game I'm not betting on.
53:10
I'm looking the most forward to actually watching.
53:12
So I'm excited to watch this game and see how these two guys
53:15
look. Peter.
53:17
Yeah, over under, 51 1/2. I didn't bet it, but I was, I
53:20
was leaning, leaning under. I, I, I do like the under.
53:24
To Darren's point, who's he going to throw the ball to?
53:25
I don't know. I think it's going to be a lower
53:27
scoring game than we had originally think.
53:30
If you're just looking at these two teams, I think it's going to
53:32
be a fun game. I agree with Darren, it's going
53:33
to be fun to watch, but I do think it's going to be a lower
53:35
score. So you know, that 51 1/2, I'm
53:37
leaning in the under. I didn't play it, but that would
53:41
that would consider it at some point here.
53:43
But regardless, I think it will be a really interesting game to
53:47
watch. So those are my thoughts.
53:48
And be our Virginia Tech getting 7 1/2 at South Carolina.
53:52
For me, it's a heavy lean at with South Carolina here.
53:57
Darren, what are you thinking here?
53:59
Well, let's all congratulate Rachel Faison, who after 47
54:02
years of waiting to hear from the NCAA, has been granted
54:06
eligibility to play for South Carolina.
54:08
So their running game takes a huge step in the right
54:11
direction. I think Virginia Tech's head
54:15
coach getting fired before the year's over.
54:17
I can't trust Kyron Drones to stay healthy.
54:20
Their best running backs on the Jaguars now.
54:24
Yeah, I agree with you, Tim. I, I know South Carolina lost a
54:26
crap ton on the defense. It it might not matter against
54:29
the Hokies here. So exit Sandman.
54:32
Give me, give me South Carolina. And finally, TCU going up the
54:38
Chapel, Bill Peter, they're getting 3 1/2 or they're giving
54:41
3 1/2, rather sorry, giving 3 1/2 at North Carolina.
54:45
Given 3 1/2 and trying to find the over under on this hold on,
54:48
I got to find it my big list of games here.
54:50
Where am I? I don't.
54:55
Know I can't find the damn number right now.
54:57
Whatever. I mean, I looked at it briefly.
54:58
I I mean I can't find it. It was not on my higher
55:01
confidence list. So I have a higher I just a
55:03
little back scene, right? What I do for all these over
55:05
unders is I rank them all confidence up to level 5 S 1:00
55:08
to 5:00. So if I'd if it's not at least a
55:11
three or a four, I'd barely even look at it.
55:13
So this is one of those that was like a 2.
55:15
So I didn't I didn't really look at it.
55:17
So I have not much to add here. I do I my first future bet back
55:22
in December was North Carolina over their win total of 7 1/2.
55:25
This is one of the games I figured that they would lose.
55:28
I like TCU a lot better here. I know, Tim, your boy Gio Lopez
55:32
was named the starter the other day.
55:34
Obviously that helps immeasurably, don't get me
55:37
wrong. But I'd still take, yeah,
55:40
exactly. Still take Josh Hoover over him
55:44
until otherwise I wouldn't touch this line.
55:48
I if I had thought that, you know, if I looked at it back
55:52
with North Carolina was a 2 1/2 point favorite a couple months
55:55
ago, I would have been all over TCU.
55:56
But but shame on me for not even getting close to the best number
56:01
if you had to pick. I mean, I know this is Labor
56:03
Day. It's a standalone game on Monday
56:04
night. It's the the week 1 Hawaii game
56:07
where everybody who's losing is going to try and bail here.
56:09
And and Jake loss is on this game.
56:13
Please don't be, you know, have a losing record going into this
56:16
case. I would not.
56:19
I had to make a I'm. Here in North Carolina, I think
56:22
it'd be one of those things where you know, you know, do a
56:26
football, I can see they win and the hype train, then it's all.
56:29
I mean, The thing is, nobody has any idea what North Carolina is
56:32
going to look like. Nobody has a clue.
56:34
And if they tell you they do that, then they're fooled.
56:37
Because I looked at this team a lot to before I made this
56:41
futures bet and I still have no idea what the hell they're going
56:43
to look like. But until it gets to four, if I
56:45
had to make a pick, I would lean TCU here.
56:47
I I think they're going to win this one.
56:50
All right, let's start to wrap this up.
56:52
I'm going to go over my bets first.
56:54
I've got Texas A and M -, 21 1/2 over UTSA and I've got LSU money
57:01
line over Clemson. Pete, what you looking at?
57:05
I'm looking at the game right now that's going on, which is NC
57:07
State and East Carolina. It's 17 to nothing right now.
57:09
I've got the under 59 1/2. It'd be great if East Carolina
57:12
could actually punt the ball a little farther after they keep 3
57:15
and outing. So I don't know where this is
57:17
going, but I think we're still in pretty good shape there.
57:20
Wisconsin, Miami of Ohio over 39 1/2.
57:23
As I mentioned before, that number is really low.
57:26
Auburn, Baylor, going to be a fun game.
57:28
I'm looking forward to watching that game under 57 1/2.
57:31
Alabama, FSU over 50 1/2, largely because Alabama is going
57:35
to score and FSU's defense is hot garbage.
57:39
Cal and Oregon State under 50 1/2.
57:42
I mean, Cal is just bad everywhere.
57:44
Just bad and Oregon State's got some injuries.
57:47
So I don't think they're going to like light it up like I would
57:50
maybe expect them to otherwise. So I like that under there.
57:53
And then Georgia Southern Fresno stay over 51 1/2.
57:58
Darren, late AD for me on Tuesday night.
58:02
I got +7 with Cincinnati over Nebraska in the neutral site
58:05
game. That kicks off in about an hour
58:07
or so. I, you know, last week I gave
58:10
out Baylor on the money line over Auburn.
58:12
A little bit of plus money there.
58:14
San Jose State, I lay at 11 1/2. That's up to 13 1/2.
58:17
I wouldn't go any farther than that.
58:18
If it gets to 14, just stay away.
58:21
But I'd feel comfortable laying up to 13 1/2 there against a
58:23
very questionable Central Michigan offense.
58:26
And then for my plays for the weekend, give me the Fighting
58:29
Malachi and Elsons and UTEP with the six points over Utah State,
58:33
Michigan coming out party for the passing game, baby, they are
58:37
going to cover 34 1/2 against New Mexico.
58:40
And now the fighting. Marcus Freeman's little fun bet
58:43
for to wrap up Labor Day weekend, little alternate line
58:46
DraftKings. If you choose 6 1/2, you can get
58:49
a nice plus 171 there. So that is my bets for the
58:54
weekend. And guys, if you're using
58:55
FanDuel, DraftKings, whatever, there are a lot of profit boost
58:58
coming out for these big games. Usually they limit you to 10 or
59:01
20 bucks, but you can get some 50% profit boots on like Texas,
59:05
Ohio State, LSU, Clemson. So check your apps, take
59:09
advantage of that. Even though the bets are a
59:11
little bit limited, you can get get some nice payouts if your
59:14
bet hits. All right, well, that's going to
59:17
wrap up our show for this week. We're looking forward to Week 1.
59:21
Thank you all for watching. Don't forget to like and
59:23
subscribe to the channel. It's free, it helps us out and
59:27
we really appreciate it. Thank you all for watching and
59:30
we will catch you next week.