Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 148 - 10/24/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello, and welcome to episode 148 of the All Systems Go sports
- 0:25Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:28I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:35Happy Thirsty Thursday. The work week is winding down.
- 0:39Before you know it, it'll be another big weekend of NFL and
- 0:42college football. Maybe a little UFC, little bit
- 0:45of biting in the arena. So we got a lot to get to
- 0:48between now and then and we got a lot to talk about for today.
- 0:51I have a four pack of Thirsty Thursday sweats for you guys,
- 0:54including a pair of bets on Thursday Night Football in the
- 0:57NFLI. Got a side.
- 0:59I got a player prop for you with a good rhythm edge.
- 1:02Then I also have a play for you in college football.
- 1:04There's two games tonight and I found one dog that I'm hoping it
- 1:07will bark for us in a spot where they have barked for us
- 1:10previously this year. So notice some good game day
- 1:13movement. So I'll give you that one and
- 1:15then one bet in the NHL, one game here, which matches our
- 1:19favorite system match that road favorite off a loss versus
- 1:22opponent off a win, which I believe to start the year.
- 1:24Let me just double check, but it is now 6 and O so far to start
- 1:29the year, so I'll give you that play as well.
- 1:31So a four pack and then I'm going to give you a college
- 1:34football play for this weekend. That is so freaking sharp.
- 1:38I cut my finger and started to bleed all over my phone when I
- 1:40logged into the app to put this one in because it makes no
- 1:43sense. There's a massive blind move and
- 1:46it looks like the most disgusting play of all time.
- 1:49But those are the plays you learn to love the most.
- 1:51So I'll give you a college football play for Saturday.
- 1:53Again, that is just remarkably sharp.
- 1:56Hopefully it comes through for us this weekend, but I buried
- 1:58the lead. Another great night in the arena
- 2:01last night. Guys bust out the brooms. 3 and
- 2:04O + 2.55 units. A sweep that you love to see
- 2:08extended the wind win streak to two straight days now.
- 2:11Six and one. Our last seven.
- 2:13Don't let the boys and the girls get hot.
- 2:16We had three winners here last night.
- 2:18One the Washington Capitals came through with that good line
- 2:20movement system match both after a back-to-back take the
- 2:24favorite. We had a good over in the
- 2:26Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets game.
- 2:28Had to sweat it a little bit late and then they absolutely
- 2:30flew over the total over 222 1/2.
- 2:33So good to see us start 2 and O in in the NBA and then Liberty
- 2:38Kennesaw State. Now we got our over there, which
- 2:41is fantastic over 47 and actually beat the closing line.
- 2:44Some books closed at 48, so I knew we were on the right side
- 2:47there. We need a touchdown there late,
- 2:50but it was really notable to me. Liberty, Kennesaw, you know, I
- 2:53didn't play. Kennesaw stayed to win the game.
- 2:55The line went to Liberty, but Kennesaw pulled off an epic
- 2:58upset 27 to 24. Remember, they were favored in
- 3:01the end. They closed plus 27, so they
- 3:04were like plus 1500 on the money line.
- 3:07But I will take a, you know, a .91 unit win every time with
- 3:11-110 juice. So great night last night, guys
- 3:133 and O + 2.55 units. Second straight winning day.
- 3:17Let's see if we can continue to get our hot streak going here,
- 3:21see if we can make it three straight winning days starting
- 3:24today. Now I want to start off with
- 3:27some NFL big match up here in the NFL as we kick off NFL Week
- 3:308, Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams.
- 3:33And I'll just go ahead and tell you guys, this is right up our
- 3:36alley as a super sharp, super contrarian home dog.
- 3:40And I'm going to give you these numbers and bet splits.
- 3:42This is, I believe, the most lopsided game of the NFL season
- 3:47ever since the season started. So up until now, the most
- 3:49lopsided play from a contrarian standpoint.
- 3:52So let's set the stage here. Vikings going to the Rams.
- 3:56Vikings come in five and one biggest surprise of the year.
- 3:58Remember, their win total was only 6 1/2, one of the lowest in
- 4:01football. They only need two more wins to
- 4:03go over that. So they've been a big surprise.
- 4:05But they did just lose their first game of the year.
- 4:07They lost to the Lions 3129 as a 1 1/2 point home favorite.
- 4:10More on that in a second because there's an interesting stat when
- 4:13teams play the Lions. What they do the following week,
- 4:16it's not good. The Rams meanwhile, two and four
- 4:19just snapped A2 game losing streak with a 20 to 15 win over
- 4:22the Raiders, however, did not cover as a 7 point home
- 4:25favorite. So what have you seen across the
- 4:27market here? Well, this game opened Minnesota
- 4:29as a three-point Rd. favorite and the public cannot believe
- 4:33that this line is so low. They say Minnesota all day.
- 4:37Minnesota will easily win by 4 points or more.
- 4:39This line is way too short. Vikings are five and one.
- 4:42They're great. Rams stink.
- 4:44They're two and four all day. Gimme Minnesota.
- 4:47Currently, the public is betting Minnesota to the tune of 90% of
- 4:52spread bets, 909 out of 1090%. Now why is that important #1
- 4:58before we even get to the system, matches, line moves,
- 5:01which are important here, 90%. Guys, you know, we've been going
- 5:05through the NFL since week one. I've seen some 78%, some 80
- 5:09percents. I want to say the highest was
- 5:10like 82%. I have not seen a 90% in any
- 5:14game this year. So just from the and I think
- 5:16this also speaks to kind of the public getting a little bit
- 5:19cocky. They think the sports betting
- 5:21thing is pretty easy because they've been doing very well the
- 5:23last two weeks where these favorites are covering these
- 5:26lopsided plays are covering the odds makers are taking it on the
- 5:29chin. Contrarians aren't doing as well
- 5:31as we want to do, but this is it.
- 5:33This is again the, I would argue the exception, not the rule.
- 5:36You bet the obvious plays, they tend not to win.
- 5:39You bet with the public, you tend to lose, but the public is
- 5:42saying, hey, betting is easy. Take the obvious favorite.
- 5:45It's been doing very well last couple weeks.
- 5:47So now they're cocky, they're arrogant. 90% are on Minnesota
- 5:51from if. So, if we just end the cap right
- 5:53there, give me the 10% with the Rams.
- 5:55That's as a contrarian like that gets you excited.
- 5:58Now, the other angle here is the Rams are not just contrarian,
- 6:01they're pretty sharp tonight, guys, Minnesota open -3 on the
- 6:05road. And even though they're getting
- 6:0690% of spread bets, the line is still -3 and a lot of books are
- 6:11even down to -2 1/2. So if everybody and their
- 6:14mother, I know I say that a lot, everybody and their mother,
- 6:16maybe 7560. Sixty, 8% of bets, 80%.
- 6:20But almost literally everyone and their mother is on
- 6:23Minnesota. So if the odds makers are taking
- 6:26in such massive lopsided betting on the Vikings, why didn't the
- 6:30Vikings go up -3 to -4 to -5? Why hasn't the line gone toward
- 6:34the Super lopsided popular side? Well, tells me we got smart
- 6:38money going Rams, which has kept the line at 3.
- 6:41So line freeze. Line freeze when heavy betting
- 6:44is on one side, but the line won't move or reverse line move.
- 6:47Some of these threes are down to 2 1/2.
- 6:49So it tells me the Rams are not only insanely contrarian, the
- 6:51number one contrarian play of the year, but also pretty sharp
- 6:55here. The fact that the line hasn't
- 6:56really budged despite Vikings taking all this lopsided
- 7:00betting. Aside from the line freezer.
- 7:02RLM super contrarian play. You also have some system
- 7:05matches here with the Rams. If you're a conference dog
- 7:07getting 4 points or less, you've covered 54% ATS over the last
- 7:12six years. Primetime dogs.
- 7:14They haven't been great this year.
- 7:15Hoping that trend turns around, but they are. 55% against the
- 7:18spread since 2020. Sean McVay, 14 and 10 against
- 7:22the spread. 58% 12% ROI as a dog getting three or more.
- 7:27McVeigh also speaks to I think a good coach on a short week is 6
- 7:31and two straight up on Thursday Night Football, so he's done
- 7:34well in the short spot. Rams are also the classic buy
- 7:37low, sell high, bad ATS team against a good ATS team.
- 7:40The Rams are only one and five against the spread this year.
- 7:43The Vikings are five and one ATS.
- 7:45So everyone who's played Minnesota has made money and
- 7:48wants to continue to play them. Anyone who's played the Rams
- 7:51have lost money. They want to fade them.
- 7:53But typically when you think through what value means, you're
- 7:55always looking for something that's overvalued like the
- 7:58Vikings, and then also simultaneously playing something
- 8:00that's undervalued like the Rams.
- 8:03Now the important thing here, if you're going to go Rams with me
- 8:07as a insane contrarian, sharp play, you got to get the three.
- 8:11Now, the three is available at several shops right now.
- 8:14You can get it. Let me just double check right
- 8:17now because I want to I want to and I've been doing a better job
- 8:19that's on the pod. But often times a lot of people
- 8:22say, oh, like, where did you get that number?
- 8:24And I want to be transparent. I also want to be, you know,
- 8:26helpful and hopefully helping you get the best number.
- 8:29So the three here is so critical.
- 8:31If you can't go Rams 2 1/2. I mean, you can.
- 8:34I hope they win the game or lose by two or less.
- 8:36But because of that key number, very important that you get it.
- 8:39And right now I'm looking at three at bet MGM and ESPN bet.
- 8:44Bet MGM is plus 3 -, 115. ESPN bet is +3 at -120.
- 8:49So I jumped on it at bet MGM plus 3 - 115.
- 8:53Now, if you only have a 2 1/2, couple things you can do.
- 8:55You can wait to see if it just, you know, ticks up naturally to
- 8:59three prior to kick off. You could buy it up.
- 9:02You know, that would be basically you look for a + 2 1/2
- 9:05like -1 O 5 or even money and you take it up plus 3 -, 120.
- 9:10Or you could play a teaser here with the Rams as one of the legs
- 9:13of a teaser because 2 1/2 up to 8 1/2, that's your sharp Wong
- 9:17teaser going through the three and the seven.
- 9:19Me personally, I got the Rams +3.
- 9:21That's my play now. I'm hoping LA gets a boost here
- 9:25because Cooper Cup is back and maybe Puka Nakua.
- 9:29I was, I noticed that Cooper Cup isn't even on the injury report.
- 9:32He's definitely playing, but Puka Nakua, he was activated off
- 9:36the IR, but I wasn't sure he's going to play 10 or not.
- 9:39He may play again. He's questionable right now, but
- 9:41obviously I hope that he does. But here's that little stat
- 9:44against the Lions. Every team after they play the
- 9:48Lions has lost this year for whatever reason.
- 9:52You know, the Lions are a really good, rough, physical team.
- 9:55You know, they pound you pretty hard.
- 9:57You come back the next week. Whoever played the Lions the
- 9:59previous week, the next week, they've lost every single game
- 10:01this year. So that would be the position of
- 10:03fading Minnesota because they played the Lions last week.
- 10:06Now in terms of the total, we did see a tick up 46, got as
- 10:09high as 49. It's now coming back down to 48.
- 10:12There's some 47 1/2's out there. So it looks like when it got a
- 10:15little bit inflated you had some buyback on the under.
- 10:19The over has a good bet split 64% bets, 71 percent money.
- 10:23But we have seen these primetime unders, they're only 12 and 13
- 10:26this year, but they are 59% since 2019.
- 10:30And when you're the total is 47 or more in a primetime game, the
- 10:34under is 24 and 1267% since 2022.
- 10:37So I don't really have a dog in the fight with a total.
- 10:39I'm always going to root for a prime time under.
- 10:42But my play here guys is Rams +3.
- 10:44You give me a team getting 10% with a sharp line, freeze or
- 10:48some RLM. That's a play I got to make
- 10:50every time. So I am on the Rams at +3.
- 10:53Got to get the three now. Player prop, See if we can cash
- 10:56a ticket on a player prop. I'm going to go with Jordan
- 10:58Addison, the wide receiver for Minnesota out of USC now.
- 11:03I got him over 42 1/2 receiving yards a little bit earlier
- 11:06today. You can always check my Twitter
- 11:08at Josh under score Insights because I write sharp reports
- 11:11for visen.com. So you can get a head start a
- 11:14little bit. But Addison is now up to 43 1/2
- 11:18and some shops are 44 1/2 and even see one book at 45 1/2.
- 11:22So player props. Again, different books will have
- 11:24different numbers. The 43 1/2 is still available at
- 11:27Bet MGM or Caesar, so that's probably your best number right
- 11:29now. But a couple things to like
- 11:31about Addison tonight. 1 he had a good game last week.
- 11:34He had three catches for 66 yards.
- 11:37He's got a pretty good connection with the deep ball
- 11:39with with Josh Darnold, Sam Darnold.
- 11:43He's also gone over this number and two of his last three.
- 11:46He's gone over this number and six of his last eight Rd. games
- 11:49overall, the Rams giving up around 212 passing yards per
- 11:53game. That's 18th in the NFL.
- 11:55So toward the bottom half and I'm also thinking, you know, if
- 11:58you're McVeigh, you got to stop Justin Jefferson.
- 12:01So if the focus is Jefferson, hopefully that leaves Jordan
- 12:04Addison available here to make some plays for us tonight.
- 12:08Also games indoors, nothing bad in terms of weather.
- 12:11Perfect conditions here. High total of 48 ish.
- 12:15Some 47 1/2's out there. But hopefully we we get Jordan
- 12:18Addison to come through. And the cherry on top rhythm is
- 12:21predicting Jordan Addison with 52 receiving yards.
- 12:25So can he get us at this point 44 or more or 45 or more for
- 12:29those who you know, can't get the best of it?
- 12:32I'm hoping so. So I got Jordan Addison over 42
- 12:361/2. Now, you can still get him at
- 12:38over 43 1/2 at both Caesars and Bet MGM.
- 12:42So we got Rams plus 3 Jordan Addison over receiving yards.
- 12:46Now let's go over to some college football because 1
- 12:49college football game really caught my eye tonight and it is
- 12:52Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Now this one's interesting for a
- 12:57couple reasons. Number one, it is your most
- 12:59heavily bet game of the night, 730 on ESPN and right off the
- 13:03bat we have Syracuse and a pretty good contrarian play
- 13:07currently Syracuse across the market.
- 13:09Let me just give you the updated numbers here.
- 13:12They are only getting 37% of bets as a road dog, but they are
- 13:17taking into account 44% of dollars.
- 13:19So a little bit low bets, higher dollars, but what I like about
- 13:22Syracuse, First off, you're contrarian and heavily back
- 13:26game. So bet against the public, but
- 13:27also game day movement is coming back toward the Orange.
- 13:30Because if you look yesterday, you know, Syracuse was one book
- 13:35was plus 6 1/2 + 6. Now they're down to 5 1/2.
- 13:39So just overnight, last 24 hours, you know, limits get
- 13:42raised, big bets come in. I'm always a big fan of being
- 13:45with the late movement because typically that's most of the
- 13:48time the most informed money coming in.
- 13:50But over the last day, the lines coming back to Cuse, and that's
- 13:53important because Cuse is the contrarian side.
- 13:56So I jumped on Cuse plus 5 1/2 again, only getting 37% of
- 14:02spread bets with that reverse line move and getting more
- 14:05money. But then you dig a little deeper
- 14:07right up, right up our alley with Cuse guys.
- 14:09One is unranked, first ranked. Syracuse is five and one, but
- 14:13they're unranked. Pittsburgh is 6 and O, but
- 14:15they're ranked 19th. So big reason why the public is
- 14:18going Pittsburgh is they're the ranked team, quote UN quote the
- 14:21better team. I always love to buy low, sell
- 14:23high on ranked versus ranked. Secondly, we have a conference
- 14:27dog. This is a ACC matchup, so two
- 14:31teams from the same conference, kind of like divisional dogs in
- 14:33the NFL that built in familiarity.
- 14:35The rivalry aspect typically levels the playing field,
- 14:38benefits the team getting points.
- 14:40Also a primetime contrarian dog mention that, but again, 730
- 14:44game, ESPN, Publix on Pit. I want to be on Cuse, especially
- 14:48with that late move. And then I'm going to bank on
- 14:51Kyle McCord. Now.
- 14:52If you guys remember, we took Cuse in the points.
- 14:55It was on the road at UNLV. Do you guys remember that game?
- 14:58I want to say it was a very similar spread.
- 15:00Maybe Cuse was plus 5 + 6 somewhere around there, but they
- 15:04won 4441 in overtime and a reason why we liked them then
- 15:08and why I still like them here. Is there a dog who can score?
- 15:12So we talk about all the time, but a dog who can score.
- 15:14System match. If you're a dog, you either have
- 15:17to have incredibly good defense to cover the number and keep it
- 15:20low scoring or, and this total has gone up around 60 1/2 up to
- 15:2462 1/2. Looks like there's some over
- 15:26money there. Some books are even at 63.
- 15:28But if there's going to be a high scoring game and the total
- 15:32is telling you it could be a high scoring game, you got to
- 15:34put up points to keep pace or backdoor cover and Cuse can put
- 15:39up points. They're averaging 34 points per
- 15:41game and they are led by and remember, we sweat him a couple
- 15:44weeks ago, Kyle McCourt, who was at Ohio State and he is second
- 15:49in the country in passing yards, 360 per game.
- 15:53So I like this angle of dog who can score.
- 15:56Also, you got to think about close to that road short Rd.
- 15:59dog, four or less system match. That's been the sweet spot.
- 16:02But think of it this way around three points for home field.
- 16:05Typically in college, you know, the NFLS little bit less than
- 16:09that, but 5 1/2 spread Basically that means on a neutral site
- 16:12pitch should only be favored by around 2 1/2 points.
- 16:15So I like that sharp kind of game day movement back toward
- 16:20Cuse low bets, higher dollars, contrarian heavily bet game
- 16:23unranked versus ranked conference dog McCord in this
- 16:26offense can put up points and oh, by the way, Syracuse on the
- 16:30road two and oh this year. So maybe they got some mojo here
- 16:34going on the road be added all up here.
- 16:36Guys, I'm going to take cues in this one.
- 16:38I like this sharp buyback. A lot of system matches.
- 16:41I got Syracuse at plus 5 1/2. Now over to the NHL.
- 16:46We got another big night in the NHL and I found one game that
- 16:49fit our model. And really it checks off the the
- 16:53number one system box, which as I mentioned earlier, is that
- 16:57road favored off a loss versus opponent off a win.
- 17:00And that is the Devils. Let's go Devils, baby.
- 17:03I'm on the Devils tonight. Devils are on the road at the
- 17:07Detroit Red Wings. Devils come in five, three and
- 17:10one. Red Wings are three and three,
- 17:13but the Devils have lost two straight.
- 17:15Red Wings have won two straight. Yet even though Detroit's
- 17:18playing better than Jersey as of late, this game open Devils
- 17:22around a -, 155 road favorite. Now they're up to -170 -, 180.
- 17:27Why is this line going so heavy toward the Devils if they've
- 17:31played worse than Detroit as of late?
- 17:34Currently they're getting 74% bets but 85% of dollars.
- 17:38Again, hockey. I don't put as much into the bet
- 17:40splits because I really no public is playing.
- 17:43But again, I was like a low bets higher dollars.
- 17:45We did have that with the Caps last night.
- 17:47But think of it this way again, Devils have lost two straight.
- 17:51Red Wings have won two straight. Yet you have this kind of big
- 17:54favorite with the Devils on the road.
- 17:56Doesn't make any sense, right? As always, if it looks fishy or
- 17:59doesn't make sense again early embedding, I would say you know
- 18:03odds makers are wrong. I'm smarter than the odds
- 18:04makers. No, doesn't make sense.
- 18:06Embrace the side that doesn't make sense, the fishy side.
- 18:10And I'll give you the updated numbers here guys.
- 18:11If you look at that system match, Rd. faves off a loss
- 18:15versus an opponent off a win, six and oh, this year, let's try
- 18:18to make it 7. And oh, and since the beginning
- 18:20of 2023, start of last year, it's 70 and 3070 percent, 18%
- 18:26ROI. Another system out here would be
- 18:28Rd. favorites with steam for a play versus an opponent who
- 18:32missed the playoffs the previous year.
- 18:34That's nine and five this season, 64% at 61% over the last
- 18:38three seasons. And then another system that I
- 18:40was just playing around with and I came up with today, both
- 18:43missed the postseason last year. Take the favorite, very simple,
- 18:46but it's 20 and seven so far to start the season, 74%.
- 18:51It's 64% since 2021. You dig a little deeper.
- 18:54I'm going to bank on goaltending hopefully as an advantage for
- 18:57the Devils. Markstrom is in that.
- 19:00He's 3, two and one with a 2.99 goals against.
- 19:03He'll be opposed by Cam Talbot, who's one and one with a 3.31
- 19:07goals against. And if you remember, Devils lost
- 19:11eight to five kind of a baseball score the other night, but that
- 19:14was Jake Allen and it was not Markstrom.
- 19:16So Markstrom is rested and ready to go.
- 19:18Better offense for the Devils. They're averaging 3.6 goals per
- 19:21game versus 2.5 for Detroit and better special teams.
- 19:26Power play for the Devils is 25% versus 15% for Detroit and their
- 19:31penalty kill, the Devils are 83% versus 68%.
- 19:35Devils meanwhile, 3 and one on the road, Detroit only one and
- 19:38two at home. And you do have Devils having
- 19:40lost two straight, so let's buy low on them.
- 19:43Detroit has one two straight, so let's sell high on Detroit.
- 19:46So big sharp line move. Our favorite system match.
- 19:49I'm going to go Devils here, guys.
- 19:50I got the devils at -170 at Caesar's now to finish up the
- 19:56pod here, as we mentioned our four pack for tonight, Rams plus
- 20:003 Addison over Cuse and the Devils.
- 20:03I got a play this weekend for you that I joked about at the at
- 20:06the beginning of the pod, but it is so sharp and makes no sense.
- 20:11And shout out to my guy Devin Joseph, because he he mentioned
- 20:13this game to me earlier this week and I'm like, holy crap.
- 20:16This is just, this is just mind boggling, but it's BYU and UCF
- 20:21now. If you go into this one, you're
- 20:24like, OK, BYU will absolutely destroy UCF, right?
- 20:27BYU is 7 and O undefeated. They're the 11th ranked team in
- 20:31the country. UCF is three and four, and UCF
- 20:35has lost four straight games. So BYU should be what I don't
- 20:39know -7 on the road. What do you think the line
- 20:41should be -3 -, 7 - 10? No, no, no, no UCF is favored.
- 20:47Why is UCF favored? And not only are they favored,
- 20:50but we actually opened this game, BYU, as a very short
- 20:53favorite. A lot of books were around BYU
- 20:55-1 -. 1 1/2 on the road. And everyone and their mother is
- 20:59playing BYU. Yeah.
- 21:02Or, sorry, they're yeah, they're playing BYU because currently
- 21:04you're getting 89% of bets on BYU.
- 21:08Again, odds makers are wrong. You know, got to take BYU
- 21:12undefeated. You know this, this line is
- 21:15completely off, right? Wrong.
- 21:16Team is favored. However, despite everybody
- 21:19playing UCF or sorry, playing BYU, the line is flipped to
- 21:23UCFUCF went from plus 1 1/2, now they're -1 1/2, some books even
- 21:29-2. So why is this line moving away
- 21:32from BYU is getting nearly 90% of bets and in favor of UCF?
- 21:36Tells me UCF is very sharp. Again, makes no sense, but this
- 21:40is the ultimate wiseguy play. I money lined UCF on the money
- 21:45line. You can get them around -120 but
- 21:48this would match my favorite system in college football, the
- 21:51unranked home favorite verse ranked opponent.
- 21:53Now that's 55% against the spread since 2017, but on the
- 21:56money line it's 67%. So actually seen it do better on
- 22:00the money line than than ATS. So I got to go with this move.
- 22:04That makes no sense guys. Unranked verse ranked dog to
- 22:07fave line move again, the ultimate buy low sell high
- 22:10because UCF has lost four straight and yet BYU is
- 22:14undefeated. So why is this line going to
- 22:16UCF? Tells me we got a lot of
- 22:18respected money here buying low and going with the UCF Knights.
- 22:22So I'm going to go UCF again makes no sense.
- 22:25Give me that side that makes no sense.
- 22:26Let's go UCF. I got UCF on the money line at
- 22:30-120 So that about does it for episode 148 of the All Systems
- 22:35Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 22:38This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and we
- 22:41start by asking a favor of you, the listener who I love.
- 22:45Thank you as always for taking the time out of your day to pull
- 22:48up a chair to the virtual bar talk sharp contrarian, plays
- 22:51with the team. But if you enjoy the pod, if the
- 22:53pod has become a part of your sports betting routine, maybe
- 22:57you play every game that I mentioned.
- 22:58Hope you know I play them all. I got skin in the game for every
- 23:01play. I will never mention a play that
- 23:03I didn't personally bet. Maybe you come in with a couple
- 23:06games on your radar and maybe you kind of look for some
- 23:09overlap. However you apply, maybe you
- 23:11don't even bet. I would be surprised.
- 23:13Maybe you like just like listening to the breakdowns.
- 23:16But anyway, no matter how you listen to the pod, the fact that
- 23:20you listen, I appreciate you. And if you want to let me know
- 23:23that you appreciate the hard work that I put in hosting this
- 23:25pod, then please do me a big favor.
- 23:28Do me a solid, could you give this podcast a five star review
- 23:32on Amazon or sorry, on Spotify or iTunes?
- 23:36Specifically Spotify, because that's kind of where the pod is
- 23:39based. And I listen to Spotify and
- 23:41that's kind of how I kind of track the pod the most.
- 23:44But if you want to give it five stars, that would make my day.
- 23:47Help us to grow the pod, rise up the charts, gain more listens,
- 23:51more credibility, and continue to grow.
- 23:53Of course, which is always the goal.
- 23:55If you want to give it five stars, it would make my day.
- 23:57If you want to click the follow button should be an option to
- 24:00follow. That way once it gets released
- 24:02each afternoon, you'll be the first to know.
- 24:04If you want to recommend it to a buddy or a friend, that'll be
- 24:07great as well. If there's an option to review,
- 24:09you want to leave a nice note how maybe the pod has helped you
- 24:12to cash some tickets, that'll be great as well, but please give
- 24:15it a five star review. Secondly, if you enjoyed this
- 24:18pod and you are 6 in one in your last 7 plays and you busted out
- 24:22the broom last night and you got a couple extra units in your
- 24:24pocket, do me a favor, Go buy my book.
- 24:27Support the team, you know, take, get the book for yourself
- 24:30or gift it to a friend or buddy or, you know, cousin or
- 24:33colleague of yours, someone who's newly into sports betting
- 24:36or in a newly legalized state. But if you want to pick up a
- 24:39copy of this pot of of my book, the Everything Guide to Sports
- 24:43betting, again, just go to Amazon.com, type in the
- 24:46Everything Guide to Sports betting.
- 24:47But I call it kind of my sharp contrarian Bible.
- 24:49It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
- 24:52set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
- 24:55locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
- 24:58how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
- 25:00management plan, all included in the Everything Guide to sports
- 25:03betting. Next, have you taken advantage
- 25:06of Rhythm or Juice Reel? Well, I hope you have, but if
- 25:09not, no worries, you can still sign up for that today.
- 25:12I'd love for you to sign up for both those sports betting apps
- 25:16today because they help us to cash tickets.
- 25:18They're going to help you to cash some tickets.
- 25:20But starting with Rhythm, who helped us catch the the Celtics
- 25:24over a couple nights ago and then the Hawks over yesterday.
- 25:27But Rhythm is great for their AI backed models and predictions,
- 25:30especially NBA. Now that NBA is back, they're
- 25:33really good at NBA player props and game bets.
- 25:36Pretty much all sports. Pretty soon they'll have I think
- 25:39MLB starting next year and hockey starting next year.
- 25:42But they do have college hoops, which is coming up here soon.
- 25:44But AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
- 25:47player props and then Juice Reel does a great job for a variety
- 25:50of reasons. I look at Juice Reel as kind of
- 25:52a Swiss army knife. You can get arbitrage
- 25:55opportunities each day, you know, free money basically if
- 25:58you follow the risk ratios. You also get the AI best bet
- 26:01picks from Robo Jackson if you want to tail those.
- 26:03You will also get game breakdowns, you know, real,
- 26:07actual dollars risked for all the side total and and money
- 26:11line plays from people who have synced up their sports books to
- 26:14the app. You get a running report card of
- 26:15your action. And there's also an I want to
- 26:18speak more to this as we continue on the pod.
- 26:20But there's an ability to almost bet on yourself by setting up
- 26:25your account, syncing your books and then basically selling your
- 26:28plays. I know it sounds sounds kind of
- 26:30touty, but it gives you the ability to like if you're a good
- 26:34better and you're, you know, proud of yourself and you're
- 26:36confident in your game. You know, you can set up, you
- 26:38know, people to follow you and get your plays and you can pick
- 26:41how much you want to you want to charge for it.
- 26:44So you could do $1.99 for a week in my plays, 20 bucks, 100
- 26:48bucks. I mean, you can decide what you
- 26:49want to do, but I kind of like that.
- 26:51It just gives you the power to bet on yourself.
- 26:54So I thought that was a cool feature that I haven't heard of
- 26:56anywhere else. But anyway, juice real and
- 26:58rhythm go sign up, but please do it in a specific way.
- 27:01Click those custom links that are located in the bio
- 27:03description of this podcast. For example, today's pod will
- 27:06say something like an episode 148.
- 27:09Josh dishes out a four pack of sweats for Thursday, Yadda,
- 27:12yadda, yadda. Scroll down.
- 27:13Should be a link for juice real and rhythm.
- 27:15Click those custom links. You'll get going right off the
- 27:18bat with your 7 day free trial. So that about does it everybody.
- 27:22Of course, the last two things like to mention before we wrap
- 27:24it up. Number one, whether I see you at
- 27:27the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
- 27:30Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
- 27:32Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
- 27:35casino R.E.M. GM Springfield and my neck of
- 27:37the woods in Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true
- 27:40grinders get down. Where Billy Walter sends his
- 27:42number runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
- 27:45Point. Sweat and sharp contrarian
- 27:46plays. Jumping in the stadium swimming
- 27:48pool. When you catch a big ticket at
- 27:50Circa, wherever it may be, you're just going to walk up to
- 27:53me in the book and you're just going to show me a broom.
- 27:54That's all we're going to make. We're going to wink at each
- 27:57other. Show me a caps ticket A Hawks
- 27:59Nets over a Liberty Kennesaw over Guess what first one's on
- 28:03me, next one's on you. We're going to post about the
- 28:05book sweatsharp contrarian place all night long.
- 28:08So wish you the best of luck. Everyone have a fantastic
- 28:11Thursday night. Of course I'll leave you with
- 28:13this. Whether we were three and O or O
- 28:15and three last night, always remember the model never changes
- 28:19up down treading water, battling to get back in the green
- 28:23battling to stay in the green. Sports betting is not easy and
- 28:26it never will be. We got to be really sharp lines
- 28:28at the odds maker set. We got to avoid bad beats, ref
- 28:31screwing us over, human errors. All that is included.
- 28:35But here's the thing, betting is not impossible and it's possible
- 28:38if we stick to the model in the group, the blueprint, the
- 28:40data-driven blueprint against the public with the house, with
- 28:43the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line
- 28:47value. If we can do that long term,
- 28:48we're going to be successful sports bettors.
- 28:51So have a fantastic Thursday night, everybody.
- 28:53We'll be back at it tomorrow for a big Friday edition of the all
- 28:56systems go sports betting pod. It'll be episode 149.
- 29:00And of course ASG is powered by rhythm.
- 29:03Good luck everybody, have a great Thursday night.