Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 37: Week 6 College Football Betting Preview

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Episode 37: Week 6 College Football Betting Preview · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

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Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, fans of all ages. It's your
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favorite time of the week. You might need to brace yourself and grab a
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cold beverage. Mark and Scott are ready to drop some college football betting knowledge
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on your ass. The boys are back and ready to help you find some
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angles to beat your book, impress your friends, and get you ready to
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enjoy the greatest sport on the planet. So sit back and enjoy, because
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we're damn happy to have you. Welcome to the Crazy Sheet, Ladies and
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gentlemen, boys and girls at your favorite time of week. You get you
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some cold drink, you download the Crazy Sheet, you nestle in, and
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you get ready to talk to some college football with Marke and Scottie. I'm
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Mark, I'm here the college Football podcasting studio otherwise Towns my office today and
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Scotty looks like he's an home brother. How the hell are you, man?
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I'm good, getting ready to go to market. Still recovering from my
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vegas, not using any lube last week, thankfully. Woo. It was
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a rough weekend, but you know that it all came home late with the
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Bsissippi State Bulldogs. Baby also late to West Virginia just in the points.
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Uh that would so actually had actually ended up winning a little bit of money,
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just because I had bet so much on Alabama. But that was that's
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the worst performance week I've had in a long time. I won two games.
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That's it entire everything else loser, loser, loser, loser, loser.
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You're just like, man, well, I don't think all that money
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I had out there on Alabama. My li has been the kind of IMA
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will lose this stool and it would been really with kid. Well, you
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you doubled my performance because I won one game, and it was the Alabama
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game, and I literally, uh, my wife asked me what we were
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doing, and I said, we're going to dinner, and I literally turned
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my phone off and we just enjoyed each other's company. And I found out
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later that they they covered and won the game. I couldn't take it anymore.
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I sat out back by myself and I bet what we covered, and
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then I had some other bets and nothing was going right. And I quickly
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realized that I probably need to shut it down because the envelope I had full
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of cash from my bookie from the previous week. I literally just turned around
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and handed it back to him early this morning. But that's part of it.
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I guess we're on a new week. Look, you can't stay that
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hot, and the good news is you can't stay that cold either, baby,
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So let's get rolling. Yeah, we did it again. It's a
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new week. That's the beauty of gambling. You're never gonna stay hot,
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but you're never gonna stay cold either, So it's just just the beauty of
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the day. Last week, I didn't think we were that far off.
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Actually, on a couple of games, I will say one thing. Kudos
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Mark Freeman on one of our losses. I think we got that game right,
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but kudos to him for not playing for the field goal. That's how
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you lose football games. They went they were still when they were still flinging
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it inside the thirty with thirty seconds, I'm like, oh, this is
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terrible news. They're trying to score. I mean, good for them,
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I mean I do. I think that takes a lot of courage. Most
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coaches try to kick field goal there and there's so many things that can go
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wrong. You've lamented so much about college kickers, but it brings in blocks
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and snaps. Here on the road, there's just all kinds of crazy things
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that can go on. You got a great quarterback, put it in his
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hands, go get it done. So kudos to Mark Freeman. Didn't think
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we were on the wrong side of that game. I still hadn't figured out
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how we didn't cover Louisville. I mean, they slept walk in that first
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half and still should have covered. How in the world is that that LSU
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touchdown a touchdown? But that catch for Louisville in the corner of the end
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zones not a touchdown. I'm like, we need some consistency in college football.
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On replay, it is like every conference, Oh no, can't see
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that, can't tell Oh no, that's that's touchdown. Oh no, that's
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not a fumble. And you're like, how in the what are you looking
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at? I mean, two weeks ago, Will Rogers throws a fifteen yard
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spiral that gets interfit. That's fumble. I'm like, that's the longest fumble
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I've ever seen, and I've never seen one in a spiral either. But
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you know, it works whatever you know. And when you watch it on
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replay, it did look like he was hitting him right as he threw it.
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I think it goes the other way if they don't. But man,
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there there there's a little bit obvious to some of this too. They get
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so caught up in the minutia of the bull moving used to bulling up.
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Did you catch through the foot on the ground. It's like he didn't catch
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the ball. There's still some he caught that ball, you know, there's
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still some. It's pretty obvious, and it's like they don't take obvious into
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anything. So and I'm also going to tell you you're never going to convince
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me some of these officials aren't betting. There are way too many quirky calls.
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There's there are coaches. We've got to talk about it. How about
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James Franklin getting the cover with the fake Neil to get the cover, Don't
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tell me these coaches don't look at the lines. That's a lie. There
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are There's no way he does that at their covering, that is no way
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he does it. That guy is a monumental asshole. And I liked him
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for a while, but you know what I think he here's what I think
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at Penn State. I really, in all honesty, you know, they
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started out the season ranked pretty low for you know what they're considering there's only
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three teams in the Big ten that are any good, and he knows Ohio
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State it's gonna get love and whether they're good or not. And then you
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know, Michigan's playing great, And I honestly think he's like, I have
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got to win every vote I can get, and if that means we've got
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to go out and cover, because he knows not everybody's watching these games.
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They're just looking on Sunday to see, hey, who on those who?
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Yeah, you know, And I get it, which is why let me
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let me clarify. I don't have a problem. I've said this ten times.
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I don't have a problem with the coaches looking at the lines. Your
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entire fan base is betting on you. Literally eighty percent of those college kids
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sitting in the stands are betting their team and laying the points every week.
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So I mean, why not cover? It makes all your fans happy.
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But I mean you talk about new level, I mean that is full on
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you're up to. Weren't you up seventeen or six or something? They were
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up a bunch and easily winning the football game, and to go fake neil
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Baum to the end zone is awesome. I just I mean couldn't get enough
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of it. I'm like, he did not do that. So it's just
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no doubt he and Lane Kipp and two biggest guys that are watching the lines
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and trying to cover. But I'm gonna tell you something. You want to
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get yourself on the hot seat and get just because here's what people don't understand.
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The message boards and all of that have zero barring the booster don't pair
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and the booster do aren't on there. I mean I had logged into our
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message board. Their state's got two and I can't tell you how long.
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And when I do, it's generally because someone we know has posted something asinine
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and we want to go look at it. And anybody say, oh,
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you got to log in and go look at this. You know, nobody
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that matters is paying attention to any of that. But what the rebel,
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what the rabble can really do is create that undertone of unhappiness and a lot
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of that can be put to bed if you're covering lines when you're supposed to
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cover lines. And I don't think enough coaches realize it because there's so much
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social media and at the end of the day, you cover a bunch of
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lines and the fan. But a lot of fans are just not gonna fuss.
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I mean, like I didn't expect State to win, but they went
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out and gave it all they had to do. Last week, they will
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Rogers did everything. I mean, the kid has got eight interceptions and now
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one touchdown pass against Alabama the last three years. I mean, he does
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not play well against those jerseys. He threw too what I think are really
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bad interceptions and one was a one. A one was a tipped ball that
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set up a touchdown, so actually I think it may have got in return
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for a touchdown. The uh So he doesn't play well. But the bottom
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line is you're like, well, I didn't expect us to win. Knew
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we weren't going to win. At least we didn't cover, you know,
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because it's like, man, let me get paid. So the lost things
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a whole lot less. So you know, the biggest message board, I'm
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aware of that. I mean, I don't read him. I've never been
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on the message board. If you google my name and you spell it correctly
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Marc at nipp and you just type in Baylor message board, you'll see where
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I pop up, where our old athletic director Ian mccaugh Uh. When Baylor
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was awful, we put our punter on the cover of the media Guide.
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So I just sent him a little email saying, Hey, I don't know
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if it sends a great message to put the punter on there, even though
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I realize he's going to be an All American. Well, the dumb ass
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copied and pasted and put it on a Baylor message board and then responded to
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me that we represent all of our student athletes are the same and made me
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look like an asshole. In any way, It's still there. So I've
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never been a big message board guy. But my favorite message board story is
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this is that if you've ever been around or then or no people from the
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state of Louisiana, then you know the biggest website in Louisiana is Tiger Droppings.
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And I mean that's literally how all the news travels through Louisiana's Tiger Droppings.
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And last year a buddy of mine's like, dude, you got to
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check this out, and I'm like, what's that and he sends me a
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link to it, and a guy he was a fraternity brother of his.
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He and his wife started an OnlyFans page during COVID, and so the big
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it and it got out, it leaked on Tiger droppings. So the big
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conversation was how small his penis was, and that was like the hottest topic
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on Tiger Droppings for a twenty four hour period, which I thought was fantastic.
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All right, that's okay, great, So he needs your little cash
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to start a I mean, really, are you gonna post your I mean
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seriously, especially if you're not I mean, if you're not you know,
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if you're not not blessed in that way, I mean, are you really
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gone just drop off on the only fans? And do you really teach somebody
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that you know, is that gonna like I mean all of you or whatever,
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or like it's gonna get pastor I mean, I don't know, man,
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who does this? I mean it's like I understand if you want to
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be a porn store or some take off, you know, but like it's
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like these teachers do they really think that some student? I mean, like
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there are moms that go online and poe like they post all these pictures and
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you know, they look some of them are in great shape. Like you
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get a thirteen year old boy, you know the other thirteen year old boys,
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they're saying to your kids, I mean, what are you doing to
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me? Let me just you're getting this kid's shredded, you know, for
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no reason. Well you know it's just because you want to feel good on
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Instagram. I mean, I just don't. I don't get it, you
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know. So all that, all that goes into the same bucket. Well,
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I will tell you this since we're talking about penises, and then we
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can move on. As we record this. It is Wednesday evening six forty
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three Central time, and I do have a little bit of a bet on
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Florida International plus six and a half. They covered this game last year and
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lost Crucians against New Mexico State. I've got this bet for two reasons.
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Number one, the New Mexico State quarterback. I love Jerry Kill, but
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go look him up. Brother Diego Pavia wild motherfucker plays quarterback for these guys.
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But he also got caught pissing on the New Mexico logo last week after
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the game, and it was leaked out on social media. And Jerry Kill
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has not announced what he's doing, but he said he will be handling that
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internally. So I'm kind of hoping we get a little suspension from Diego and
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Florida International sneaks this one out. This is you know, but anyway,
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you're there there. You got two games tonight Jack State against Middle Tennessee State.
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That'll game to be played in Murphysborough, Jack State getting three in that
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spot, Florida International, New Mexico State in Florida National getting six and a
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half. The games played in Los Cruisies, New Mexico. Scott I don't
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have anything on either one of those games. And then on Thursday night,
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Scotty, let's get to some action here. Oh, by the way,
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we went one in eight last week, is that right Ltry Lumber one?
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Yeah? Well yeah, one a one in seven seven and that takes us
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to twenty nine and twenty five. So yes, it was ugly, but
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we did go one in one on top plays, but we lost the underdog
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play and we lost the play of the week all right soon over by the
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way, Akron could not get it done. Very disappointed. Thursday night,
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let's get this one rolling. We're gonna travel to Liberty Line. Here is
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opened up at nineteen. You've seen it move all the way up to twenty
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to twenty and a half. By the way. The man who made you
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look like an asshole is the Adlatan director at Liberty. I believe how it
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used to be. I think he's still there. He's still there anyway.
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But Liberty's lay in twenty looks like they're gonna be laying about twenty and a
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half. Is this game sitting around the board? Somebody must have released it,
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because I'm looking at unabated and the lines moving. Sam Houston's traveling out
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there. If you didn't watch Sam play last week, Sam had Jacksonville State
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beat They did not play the game correctly. At the end of the game,
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Rich Rode ended up taking it down with a minute left, scoring a
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touchdown, going for two, winning the game in overtime. That's what happens
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when you play rich Rode and you're coaching at SAM. You're gonna get out
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coached by a guy that had the Alabama job for ten hours and declining it
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to go to Michigan. This Sam team is terrible. Last week they doubled
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their points score total on the season in one game. When they come out
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here to play Jamie Chadwell, I'm gonna say this, Liberty, we may
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be riding the Liberty train. The rest of the season. This conference that
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they're in is terrible. This team's a wagon. They've got a better roster
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than everybody in the conference most likely, and you've got a better coach than
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Jamie Chadwell. It's almost like he moved from Coastal and we kind of forgot
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he was there in the Magic. I mean, we rode the Coastal train
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a long time and when it was getting going there, and you've seen the
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difference almost immediately when he moves over to Liberty. They're four and oh against
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the number of four and oh straight up, and they've covered quite a few
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games, and Coastal on the other side for him, and Coastal on the
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other side is falling off. And I think Chadwell gets it. I think
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he honestly goes out to put up a bunch of flashy points because he wants
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the players to come and I think he and he's looking to do that kind
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of thing. I'm taking Liberty here minus twenty and a half against the Sam
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Houston State roster that does not look like it's even remotely close to being ready
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to b D one. Yeah. I like this. I like this game
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a lot. Actually, this is I mean man. Of all the early
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games of the week, this is the thing that popped out to me the
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most. I just don't think Sam can keep up. I don't think they
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can score. That offense is not good. They came out hot last week.
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Boy, they really struggled on offense in the second half of and did
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not look good. You know you're you're thinking last week, is that a
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good first half? None? Boom, they would have been over the first
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half total. But even after that explosion of of scoring twenty points, they're
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still only averaging nine and a half points a game. I just don't think
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they can keep up. I find it hard to believe that Liberty's not gonna
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be able to score four or five touchdowns in this game. You can still
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cover with them with Sam scoring two. I don't think that happens. I
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think it's a blowout. I think Chad will Wins just came by as much
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as he wants to. Yeah, let's roll with it. Liberty, Baby,
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Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. I don't know who the Jerry Folwell Junior
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was the president there and he got wrapped up in a little sex scandal as
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well at Liberty. Back in the day, I got nothing on Western Kentucky
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and LA Tech. Law Tech is not a very good football team, but
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Western Kentucky has underperformed this season. I was expecting this team to really come
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out and get it done. I do think they could probably get right this
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week against LA Tech, but you're laying almost a touchdown, so I am
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going to pass. We move on to High School Night and Friday Night,
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Scottie. We've actually got two pretty good games Kansas State and Oklahoma State.
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Over under is at fifty four eleven and a half. As you're lying across
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the board, I don't have a play in this one. I would lean
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case State. I'm assuming Will Howard's healthy. Coming off of the bye,
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Oklahoma State, to me, has looked really bad. I think if you're
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Mike Gundhy, you've got to be scratching your head figuring out what you're trying
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to do. And so I got nothing there. The quarterbacking job, that's
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what it feels like. He's terrible and he may be better, but just
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the offense doesn't look good. And you know, this was a team Oklahoma
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State for years that's been very reliable straight up and against the number. I
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mean when they get into Bedlum. I've heard people talk about anything can happen
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in Bedlam. I don't see it this year. This team is really rough.
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But it'll give me a chance to watch it being Friday night. But
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the game we are gonna play, Scotty, let's go up to where speed
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kills and I'm talking about in the Big Ten Corn against Illinois over under here
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is forty three minus three and a half is the number when you get looking
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at these two teams. Boy, they look like they're going the wrong direction.
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Nebraska had a ton of hype with Matt Ruhle coming in there. They've
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been really struggling to put things together. Illinois has not looked great. You
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know, they lose their defensive coordinator to go to Purdue. They lost all
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that talent to the NFL. Alter Meyer, the quarterback, has not been
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consistent in this spot. So Scotty, you know what I like. On
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a short week, whoo baby, let's go first half under at twenty one
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and a half to twenty two. That's gonna require four scores from these two
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terrible offenses that are averaging twenty one and eighteen respectable. I'm going under in
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the first half on a short week at twenty two. Yeah, you know,
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at the end of the day, I don't think I don't think either
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one of these teams can score. The only way, the only way we
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don't hit this number is if one of them makes a stupid turnover and they
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are both minus six in the turnover department. But my guess is they muddle
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it around. They may turn it over and then have to kick field goals,
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which is what I really think, what I think is going to happen,
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is these teams are going to kick field goals. I think we get
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one touchdown somewhere in the first half and I'm guessing three or four field goals
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and guess what that is, mark at the cover in the first half.
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We could have some win around fifteen minths an hour or two at game time,
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which is always helpful for these teams. All right, Scotty, let's
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move on to the board. That's our early week action that we've got.
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There a couple of games that we want to talk about. First, one
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I want to go to is I know a game everybody's getting excited about and
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you think you know where I'm going, but you don't. But let's go
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to the Wazoo game out West, and here's what I want to highlight this
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game is I think it's my favorite game on the board this week. And
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you know what, I can't watch it. Wazoo getting three was was get
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getting the game? Was Zoo getting three and a half points against you UCLA
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in this one? This is an interesting spot man. Wazoo's come out.
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They've played really good. I think this team. I watched a great interview
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with Dicker. If you don't watch Inside College Football on CBS Sports Network,
20:12
I highly recommend that's a good show. New Heiseel's good, the host good,
20:18
Randy Cross is good. Everybody on the show is really good. It's
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about a two hour show. I record it and watch it. But they
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had a great interview with Dicker, the coach from Washington State, and how
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he's really embraced kind of the odd situation that Washington State's in and the team's
20:33
bought in. It's like, look, as we don't know where we're going
20:34
to be next year, we're kind of playing for that. You've got Kim
20:37
Ward that's in there. If you haven't seen Kim Ward play, you're probably
20:41
not going to see him play this week because that game's on the Pac twelve
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network. But he is fantastic kid, can do it all, and he
20:48
really has matured from year one to year two in this Washington State program.
20:52
You go down to Ucla and I love Dante Moore in the quarterback that he
20:56
is gonna be for UCLA, and I like Chip kelly Ton. The reason
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we didn't take Ucla on the road against Washington on the road against Utah a
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couple of weeks ago was we were curious what that freshman quarterback was gonna do
21:08
in this spot, and he didn't perform well. He opened up with a
21:12
pick six and then they just got out coached at that point, and in
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Utah really bottled them up. This Washington State defense is not bad. The
21:22
over unders at fifty nine think could be a tad high, but Washington State's
21:25
defense plays physical. And this is an early game. This is a noon
21:29
kickoff on the West Coast. There's not going to be a home field advantage
21:32
at the Rose Bowl for Ucla at noon in California. Get the fuck out
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of here with that, and so let's take Washington State plus three and a
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half. Yeah, look, this is the best defense. I think this
21:45
is a better defense than he faced personally, then he faced against you,
21:48
Chah. Now, I do think that's a tough, much tougher environment.
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Whazoo's pretty going good on defense, and I think that's what a lot of
21:55
people don't realize about this football team. They're good and I was really impressed.
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I was probably one of the eight people that was really watching that game
22:03
when they played Oregon State. I was really impressed. And I really did
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say when we said on the podcast, that was the game that where that
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was gonna be the next team to step forward, that fourteam to step forward.
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I'm not backing off of that because I think Oregon State showed last week
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they are still a very good football team. Uh, Wazoo is a good
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football team. I just think they're a little bit better than UCLA. I
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like them getting the points here, and I got to tell you, take
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you a little money line too. I think it's a good chance right here
22:34
for you to make a little extra cheese on this line. I like Lazoo
22:40
to win this game. Straight up. I'm with you. I will say
22:44
one thing about Orangon State. We're I touch on this a little bit later
22:45
than pod. Oregon State's offense has looked a little bit off since the Washington
22:49
State game. They you know, he didn't look dj and Galley didn't look
22:52
great against San Diego State. I mean, I just I kind of wonder.
22:56
But anyway, I like that Oregon State team a lot as a unit,
23:00
and I've got to play on them later. But it'll be a lean
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on the podcast, Scottie. Let's get it going, gigantic game. I
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know everybody's excited. They're gonna get up on Saturday. They're gonna get the
23:11
remote out looking to tune in that two thirty game. And what are you
23:14
gonna put on? Baby? You're gonna put on Akron at home, getting
23:18
you some six and a half against Northern Illinois. Anyway, right here,
23:22
mac play of the week. What do we got? Scott eaton Northern Illinois
23:27
lay in six and a half. Both these teams are are not very good,
23:32
but Northern Illinois played a much better schedule, much better schedule, and
23:37
so I think their records a little deceiting because of who they played and where
23:42
they played. I think is still with a good win. I ain't at
23:45
boss college game. I think they go on the road and I think they
23:49
covered this number comfortably. It is under a touchdown. I just don't think
23:55
Akron can score. Their quarterback got banged up last week. That's probably why
23:59
they lost that ball and overtime. He's probably out. He is out.
24:03
I like, I like Northern Illinois here to win this ball game by more
24:07
than a touchdown. That's your MAC play of the week, dj Ivy quarterback
24:11
at Akron. I had several people texting tweet me or DJ Iron excuse me,
24:15
ACL tear out for the season. You got a big drop off from
24:19
an offensive perspective, losing that kid going out. Yeah, Northern Illinois hung
24:23
around with what I think is probably weren't the first or saving best team in
24:26
the MAC. Last week in Toledo put some points out. I hate Northern
24:30
Illinois because I had bet against him so many times last year that I swore
24:33
him off, and now here you are making me do it again. I'm
24:37
gonna have to watch that fat motherfucker wonder up and down the sidelines that coaches
24:41
them, and just wonder if he's I mean, he's like the black version
24:45
of fat suit Mark Mangino. It's like that dude's gonna stroke out and then
24:48
when you realize he's a running back in College it's even better. So I
24:52
have no idea, but I'm gonna be voting for Northern Illinois again the Huskies.
24:56
Holy shit, I can't believe I'm doing this all right. Moving on,
25:00
let's travel down to the second most watched conference in the country. You
25:03
ready for this one. Let's get you a little fun belt, baby?
25:08
What game? Members that? Forty nine straight days of football today? Baby?
25:14
Getting on board with the fun belt? Absolutely? Man, Absolutely,
25:18
Texas State? Where is that game? Scott? That game? Is that
25:22
ula LA game? Four to three? Yes, if it took me a
25:26
second to find it, four oh three on the boards, the last game
25:29
on the board if you're looking for it again. Mid afternoon start time.
25:32
Texas State will be traveling down to Lafayette. Should be any issues with weather
25:36
in this one? Boy? You know that George in Auburn wishes they had
25:40
TJ. Finley playing quarterback in the spot. This is an interesting game.
25:44
ULAA to me is a team I downgraded pretty big going into the season.
25:48
Thus four they are one and four against the number. Uh. Defensively,
25:52
they're giving up about twenty nine points a game and they're not They're turning the
25:56
rock over and I think a lot of people still think that Sun Belt Billy
25:59
is coaching this squad, but he's moved on to Florida and Texas State is
26:03
kind of getting things done here. How are we gonna roll with Texas State?
26:08
Love me some Texas State here. I like them getting the two and
26:11
a half. I think they're another live dog. I just think they're gonna
26:14
score too many points. Breu la la. I don't think they can keep
26:17
up with them. I think they're still getting a lot of the ability nape
26:19
of your love. I don't think they're quite as good as they've been.
26:23
So I like Texas State here. You know, we always talk about Marcus
26:27
is just a little bit of a side note, but I think everybody's an
26:33
amord this. This number is big, I mean really big. Sixty nine
26:37
is the over under, and you look at the totals that both these teams
26:41
are scoring, and so you know they're gonna be able to score, both
26:44
of them giving up twenty nine points a game, so you know they're gonna
26:47
put on some points. I just have confidence with what Texas State's done every
26:51
week that they're gonna be able to go do it. And because I've watched
26:53
them do it and going to Finley man style, going with where you think
27:02
is the best school when you're in recruiting and take the time and ask a
27:06
coach where do I fit and how are you going to use me? Because
27:08
Finley is a perfect example. Do you have any idea that kid can get
27:12
it around like he's getting it around the yard? No, he's didn't,
27:15
but he was a super talented kid to show up at Auburn in the first
27:18
place. He's finally gotten a guy who knows how to use the skill set.
27:23
And the guy's the first year head coaches. That is another great part
27:26
of this. And he's and he's winning ball games and putting up points.
27:30
Kudos for that kid. And look, this has been a tough job at
27:33
French Yon. He couldn't win down there. I mean, what's the name
27:37
they just got rid of? That was the A and M coordinator's babatoon.
27:42
He couldn't win down there. I mean it's been a man they are.
27:47
They have come out rolling, I mean right out of the box. So
27:52
bring in a little incarnate word offensive coordinator and you're ready to roll, baby.
27:56
That's all you needed. Maybe Texas, maybe Tech North Texas might still
28:00
hire the coordinator and not ted coach. It could be true. The other
28:03
thing I like about this game is kind of interesting is Ululai is coming off
28:07
of miss They played at Minnesota last week, which I know that doesn't sound
28:11
like much, but that was a much more physical game than what they were
28:15
used to. They gave up over two hundred yards on the ground and you
28:19
did say what you want about Minnesota. We're gonna talk about him he in
28:22
a minute, but that was probably a much more physical game than what they
28:26
were used to playing. And in the game's previous where they played Buffalo,
28:30
uab Old Domino and Northwestern State, so it was a big step up in
28:34
class. I think this Texas State team, they play fast, They're gonna
28:37
try to get it done. These kids have a chip on their shoulder.
28:41
Texas State has not been good. They could easily sneak down there to the
28:45
Lafette and get the win. Let's get it rolling baby taking Texas State and
28:49
the Bobcats getting her done. Scotti. Next game I want to go to.
28:53
Let's go back to Minneapolis, the Twin Cities, Michigan will be rolling
28:57
in there on Saturday evening playing a Minnesota team over under here's forty six.
29:03
Minnesota is getting nineteen points at home. Michigan's five and zero straight up.
29:08
They are won three and one against the spread, with their first cover being
29:12
last week. Minnesota is three and two straight up, two and three against
29:17
the number. A couple of interesting things I'm gonna take away from this.
29:19
I'm gonna flip this game to you. No team has snapped the ball inside
29:25
the Michigan ten yet this season, which I think is crazy. I don't
29:29
care who your schedule is, the fact that they've played that well. And
29:32
then the other thing, if you haven't watched the PJ. Fleck press conference
29:36
this week talking about Michigan and how hardball's built the team as a unit,
29:41
because I personally think Fleck, whether you like him or not, as far
29:45
as the coach goes, I think he has a lot of respect for the
29:47
coaching community, how teams build their roster. I mean when he took over
29:51
the Western Michigan program a couple of years ago, how he united that team
29:55
to come together with the whole row your boat thing. When he took this
29:59
Minnesota job, he created a lot of excitement that's around him. They're banged
30:03
up with some key injuries and they I thought this team was gonna be able
30:06
to throw the rock a little bit more than they could this year. They
30:08
just had able to get it done. How are we gonna go with big
30:11
ten speed kills? Baby, I think Michigan, I really do believe that
30:17
Michigan's going to drill these guys. I just simply I have watched this team.
30:22
They really struggled throwing the football, and yes they're getting a little better,
30:26
but man, I just do not think they're gonna be able to move
30:29
the football at all at all against a really, really good Michigan defense.
30:36
And at the end of the day, not give it. I ain't.
30:40
Come Saturday, we're gonna have another game where they haven't. Nobody's runn to
30:42
play inside their ten. I think that's the bottom line. And if you
30:47
can't get inside their ten, how the hell you gonna cover nineteen. I
30:51
don't think you are, because I think Michigan's gonna do it. Michigan,
30:53
those first three games kind of throw out the window. Harpball. Wasn't coaching
30:59
take that out to win? They took They just went straight gaff can.
31:02
The last couple of weeks, I like them here. I think they I
31:07
just I think they're gonna pound Minnesota because Michigan looks like one of the best
31:14
teams in the country. Like to me, I've seen two what I think
31:17
are really good football teams like minus the first series in the game Washington Arizona
31:25
was never within two scores of Washington last week. Now they didn't cover,
31:27
but Washington was totally in control of that football game on the road, and
31:33
so that's a really nice road conference win. Sure, I think they look
31:38
legit. I think Michigan looks legit, and I think Texas says look legit,
31:44
and we find out Saturday if they are. I'm gonna hold off on
31:48
Florida State because we don't know who LSU is after that weekend, after the
31:52
last couple of weeks. If they're that team that we've seen the last two
31:56
weeks, I'm gonna really hold off, really hold off on Florida State.
32:01
So it will see. But as the eighth FEC good enough to beat them
32:05
and expose them to To me, those look like the best teams in the
32:08
country on the field. Notice I didn't mention Georgia. Georgia had been unimpressive,
32:14
I mean really unimpressive to me. So bottom line is, I think
32:16
Michigan goes on the road, covers this number with solid defense as much as
32:22
anything, It's gonna be interesting. I like this play a lot. I
32:28
think Michigan's physical. I think they kind of get this cover. Nobody's paying
32:30
attention to them. There's a lot bigger games earlier in the day. I
32:35
think Hardball has done a good job. I mean, I think the team
32:37
is completely brought into what he's selling, and you can see that weekend and
32:40
week out. I will ride on this one with you, Scotty. That's
32:44
the board small board this week, but we got a couple of other players
32:47
want to hit on. Let's talk about Oklahoma, Texas. The Red Rivers
32:51
are Shootout. I'm not going to call it a rivalry because that's not what
32:53
they named it, damn thing when they created it. But the Red River
32:57
Shootout this weekend'll be in Austin. Are being doll Texas. If you've never
33:00
been there. Half the stadium's crimson and cream, half the staves burn orange
33:05
and white. And there's a whole lot of hate right there in the middle.
33:07
Baby over under here. This has been moving up at sixty, but
33:10
the line's been creeping too this line. Earlier in the season this summer,
33:14
when it opened up at circa Game of the Year lines, Texas was minus
33:17
four and now we're seeing Oklahoma getting six and a half points in this one.
33:22
I think this is a game if Texas legitimately has a chance to play
33:25
for the national championship, they got to come out and get this win.
33:30
They could still probably lose and sneak their way in with the way things are
33:34
going here. But Texas wins this game, and I think they really boult
33:37
themselves into the top three or four teams in the country. That all being
33:40
said, if I can get a seven, I'll probably roll with OU in
33:45
this one. But I don't have a hard opinion. I'm really looking forward
33:47
to this game. Was embarrassing last year for Oklahoma. They looked like they
33:52
had no idea what was going on. I think this team's gonna get better.
33:55
Oklahoma hasn't really played anybody yet this season, but I would lean,
33:59
you know, Lahoma plus seven if I can get it, But I have
34:01
no official play here. Yeah, your eye tell you Texas should win this
34:08
ball game by this number and that the line should be going in this direction.
34:13
The boy I've seen some wild stuff happening in this game over and over
34:16
the years, and so I can't wait to watch. SEC Commissioner will be
34:21
at the ballgame in Dallas, a little bit of extra with Greg Sank in
34:28
the stand, so that'll be that's an interesting move by the Southeastern Conference.
34:35
Oklahoma has not looked good the last two weeks to me, but boy,
34:37
this looks like a much better version of Oklahoma. And we're gonna find out
34:42
what they are and Texas wins this ball game. Buddy, talk about in
34:47
the driver's seat for the Natty, there are any I mean that is a
34:51
real deal. I think that that this that you find out if they're for
34:55
real, because they've certainly taken the first step, and that they take this,
35:00
it's gonna be really hard for Texas to not play in the final four.
35:04
I don't think next game, I want to go to Scott A.
35:06
Let's go to an SEC game that the Commissiony's not gonna be at Bama traveling
35:09
to college station. Boy, the hype wagon is parked down the street from
35:15
my house. Baby line's shrinking. Bama is laying one and a half at
35:19
home against Texas A and m Bama has struggled. If there's any team over
35:24
the last seven or eight years that Bama has consistently really had a hard time
35:30
putting away, I would tell you Texas A and M has done the best
35:32
job of that. You're gonna be playing with a backup quarterback in Max Johnson
35:37
with Connor Wegman being out. I like Max Johnson a lot, but keep
35:40
in mind he did not win this starting job for a reason. But where
35:44
I think this game is gonna be interesting is in the trench. The Texas
35:47
A and M front seven has really stepped up the last couple of weeks.
35:51
They're gonna need him here. That score from that Arkansas game last week was
35:53
completely misleading Bama. On the other hand, I told you, I mean
36:00
grabbed me a Bama Natty ticket after that egg that they laid. I don't
36:04
think it's a bad bet. I mean, you're laying one and a half.
36:07
You can Why wouldn't you just take Bama to win this one. Do
36:09
you think A and M gets to win at home? It's gonna be rocking
36:13
in that place come Saturday afternoon. Oh, there's no doubt it's gonna be
36:16
rocking. It'll be It'll be going on. But this looks like this is
36:22
just so typical of Abama go on the road cover when it's when they're an
36:28
obvious underdog, I mean an obvious you know what looks like it could be
36:35
an upset. I said that the wrong way where it looks like they're primed
36:37
for an upset and boom they win by ten points, you know, And
36:42
that's that is what this game feels like to me. I am not still
36:47
not sold on the I know, I look at how many tackles for loss
36:52
and they're creating havoc. I can't get that Miami second half out of my
36:57
head on this, on this A and m D and so I don't know
37:00
who they are yet. Have they just not played any teams that are any
37:04
good? And is Bama any good on offense? So can they take advantage
37:07
of that defense? Like to find out? In this ball game? Too
37:10
many question marks for me? If anything, Bama created more question marks.
37:15
That should have been a thirty point win in Sarcles Saturday because the state did
37:20
everything they could do to lose that ball game and simply didn't get any breaks
37:24
either. They muff a punt, State almost recovers it, but doesn't.
37:29
This was early in the ballgame, and the same thing, they had a
37:35
fumble that they didn't recover that they would have that they had a chance to
37:38
recover. So just some freaky things that if the ball bounces their way,
37:43
that's when you're in for an upset. Bama just looks mad to me because
37:47
State is really challenged on defense and they couldn't really capitalize on it. It
37:52
took took those three big turnovers, two big turnovers to really extend this game
37:57
and getting US Apy State to cover. Yeah, I'm with you if I'm
38:01
if I'm road rash, Bobby Petrino, I mean, I walk down the
38:06
hall and I'm like, look, DJ, you send those front seven guys
38:09
all day long and you make Milrow beat me in the air. And I
38:14
think I can get us. You know, I can get us thirty five
38:15
point. You know, I get us twenty eight thirty five point to this
38:17
one. And that's what I mean, that's what I would do Ohio State,
38:21
Maryland. I would love to take Maryland at plus twenty one. Go
38:23
back and look at the history on this game, and Ohio State has just
38:28
ass stumped this team several times, not a you know, gat US I
38:31
don't know if he can get it done. And coming off a buy after
38:35
the way Ryan Day looked like such a jackwagon a couple of weeks ago.
38:37
Can't lay it with that one one ticket I do have in my pocket,
38:40
Scottie TCU Iowa State, which typically would be an under for me. I
38:45
go over fifty two and a half. Iowa States revamped their offense. They're
38:49
chunking the ball all over the yard. TCU is coming in here in wounded
38:53
dog mode. Baby. This team has not lived up to playing for the
38:58
Natty last year. I think they know, oh that there's no sex appeal
39:01
about going to Iowa State. They beat the dog shit out of this team
39:05
last year. I got a little overticket fifty two and a half in my
39:07
pocket. What you got, uh? You know? I like me.
39:13
I got two more underdog guys for you. Give me some. NC State
39:17
is completely underwhelming, and they changed quarterbacks now bench rending Armstrong and have gone
39:25
to the kid who was playing that got Leary gone, assuming he was going
39:30
to be the quarterback. You don't let you don't bring in a fifty year
39:34
senior for quarterback if this guy's your answer. So the bottom line is I
39:37
don't think they got a quarterback. I think that's where we're at. I
39:40
like Marshall, I think they I think they got enough in them for six
39:45
and a half to cover. But I would there there is enough upside and
39:51
a couple of these lines. The lines are getting big enough and the numbers
39:54
large enough, like Texas State, that number is not large enough for me
39:59
to mix it in. But man, you talk about plus six and a
40:05
half, plus six, because Louisville Notre Dame is where I'm going next.
40:08
You got three huge games for Notre Dame in a row, back to back
40:14
road games. They're starting to get banged up very easily. Could have lost
40:19
that ball game last week. So anyway, bottom line is I like both
40:23
of those underdogs to have a chance to win. And boy, you talk
40:30
about them and Wazoo, get you a little three game money, just the
40:36
manage to take ten bucks ten buckses, so just get after it. Boys.
40:42
So you got Louisville against the Irish, is that right? That is
40:46
correct? I will tell you I'm gonna take Marshall plus the points, but
40:51
I will have a pizza money bet on Louisville, Marshall and Wazoo as a
40:57
money line underdog, and I will have as a money line dog straight up.
41:01
Just now. Ooh, I like where you're headed here. I like
41:05
where you're headed here. Hang on one day, I got one more for
41:07
you. Let's go to sleepy cal Berkeley, Oregon State traveling down on the
41:13
road to play the Golden Bears. Can I interrupt you before you start this?
41:17
Did you see that cow had all of eight people in attendance last week?
41:22
No? No, I mean buddy of mine plays golf with some guys
41:27
from northern California. I don't know if he listens to the podcast or not.
41:30
And he was like, remember, Buddy sent me this picture for the
41:35
video of the game. He goes. He called their fan base a smothering.
41:37
As you looked over, because there were just people scattered across the stadium,
41:42
it looked like somebody had just blown shit, like through a screen door,
41:45
like in that one movie where the chick sneezes at her ass, It
41:49
sneezes and blows out her ass and hall pass, Hall passes the movie.
41:52
That's what it looked like. It was like this beautiful outlook and everything and
41:57
then just the friends and family package that didn't want to sit in ox to
42:00
each other because maybe they're gonna get COVID. I have no idea, but
42:02
anyway, here's why I like this game is Oregon State last week two weeks
42:10
ago, last week played a Utah game, big game, big home game
42:15
for them. They get the win, twenty one to seven. Utah's offense
42:19
is not very good with Cam Rising not there, but like I said,
42:22
Oregon States looked just a little bit off the last couple of weeks. They
42:27
go to Col's running tempo like crazy. They're scoring thirty one points the game
42:30
here, and the Oregon State may have to keep up with them. I'm
42:35
not sure they're gonna be able to bottle this up. And the other thing
42:37
is is Oregon State's got UCLA on deck. Now that doesn't sound like much,
42:42
but man, they've got to be looking ahead to UCLA coming to Corvllas
42:46
and looking past this Berkeley team that no one has paid attention to all season
42:51
long. You're getting Cal Berkeley plus nine and a half, get you the
42:54
hook bought all the way up to ten. I think you could be a
42:58
live dog in an upset in this one. And I'm telling you, look,
43:02
we got a little bit of Dandy Sheridan and some home dog in us
43:07
this weekend. I guess that's all a chalk we played the last three weeks
43:09
that finally came back to bite us. But hey, that's gambling, baby.
43:15
Now what do you got? Baby? I got one more for you,
43:16
And I don't know where you're going with this one. And this is
43:19
another game you cannot watch, the biggest story in college football five weeks in
43:24
a row, big game. Fox has been there three times already this season.
43:29
I thought they'd move their headquarters to Boulder. So what do we got.
43:32
Prime, after any historic comeback against USC last week to get themselves back
43:39
in that game, to legitimately give themselves a chance to tie it up in
43:43
the fourth quarter, goes on the road to an Arizona State team that is
43:47
awful, just terrible. I think Drew Pine is back to playing quarterback for
43:52
him. Colorado's laying for So what do I want to do mid afternoon but
43:55
turn Colorado on again? But you know why I can't because it's on the
44:00
fucking Pac twelve network that no one has access to in the whole country.
44:04
And Prime's laying four on the road here. How are we gonna play this.
44:06
If we play it, Prime gonna get it because I don't think Aris
44:08
on the Steak and I don't think they keep up with them. But I
44:12
mean literally, PAC twelve has three good games this weekend and they're all on
44:16
the PAC twelve networks. I mean, just unbelievable. Just I mean,
44:20
it's dumb aster. You want to know why your league failed, why you're
44:22
league failed. You know, I actually have some people that want to watch
44:25
your games and will pay for it. Before you start taking all the games
44:29
and put them on a network nobody can find. Oh boy, coach Prime,
44:34
you're gonna lay four on the road with Coach Prime. I'm laying four
44:37
on the road with Coach Prime on that. I do like that game,
44:39
and I will be involved in that game. I just don't think Arizona Stake
44:42
can score enough to keep up with You've got to be able to take advantage
44:45
of that of that defense for Colorado, and I don't think Arizona Stak can.
44:52
So I think that's the difference in the ballgame. Is Travis Hunter back
44:55
this week? Do we know? Not sure? I have. I had
45:00
been meaning to look at that the last two days and not looked. I
45:02
know they were talking about this week or next week. So anyway, I'm
45:07
not sure if he's back yet. I all had to confirm it says he's
45:10
doing well, but has not announced if he's going to return or not.
45:15
So, according to Timeline, Sanators provide a Hunter would also miss next week's
45:20
game against Stanford. So now, yeah, originally they said they were talking
45:23
a four to a five week dealtcha. That would put next week or the
45:29
following week. So, oh baby, I'm excited. Scotty. What's your
45:32
top play you got this week before we wrap this up? And I gotta
45:36
you know obviously you said you think watsoo U c l A is your top
45:39
play. I think that is a very good one. But I like our
45:42
Mac play a week. I think I think we're getting dialed in on a
45:45
little maction. But I really like I really like Liberty early in the week
45:51
too. I'm not against it. I like my under at twenty two into
45:54
the Illinois game. That's there. Uh, And I'll go with Texas State
45:59
plus and that. But yeah, I like this board a lot more than
46:01
I like last week's board. Last week's board I didn't like. I was
46:05
like, oh that's okay. I've done this before I'm going to fire,
46:07
and I thought I was playing Keno at the end. I was like,
46:12
oh, this is awesome. I'm going to get all the way to the
46:14
end and not have any of my points taken, and I'm gonna win a
46:16
Keno game. I'm gonna go buy me some Menthols and sit here and smoke
46:22
some Parliaments and play me some Kino for the rest of the day. It's
46:25
what I'm gonna do is awesome. If you could have just just if you
46:31
just could have dropped a downtown casino reference on us, then we'd all been
46:37
good. If you could have mixed it in a downtown casino reference for us,
46:40
that would have been been perfect. I'm gonna we did a plaza reference
46:44
is where I was really going with. I love the plaza. They got
46:46
a great new bar out front, the Carousel Bar. It's fantastic. They've
46:52
they've ring done it. But I'm missed the old school. It had this
46:55
awful I don't bore everybody to death with a couple of great stories about it,
47:00
but they had this old school chalkboard. Yeah, uh that deal that
47:04
literally the lines were in chalk until oh, probably two thousand and seven or
47:09
two thousand and eight. I mean it was still chalk when everybody else was
47:14
electronic and everything. It was its fabulous. Do you know. Do you
47:16
know why you go to the Plaza if you're gonna gamble is it's the only
47:22
roulette wheel left in Vegas that only that has a has a single zero,
47:25
not the double zero, the triple zero, So you can you can lay
47:29
the super nova on the board and you've only got one zero on the roulette
47:32
wheel out there. It's a It's fantastic. If you get a chance and
47:36
you're there, go upstairs, need to Oscars. That's where they film part
47:38
of the movie Casino. It's where Sharon Stone was getting pushed out of the
47:42
booth when as he was calling her a whore. But yeah, the Plaza
47:45
is one of my favorites. I will actually be at Circa next week.
47:49
We're gonna be there Wednesday to go watch you two play at the Sphere,
47:52
so we'll have to figure that out. So yeah, I'll be out there
47:55
for the hockey kickoff season, a couple of college football games, and NFL
48:00
game Thursday night. So if anybody's gonna be in Las Vegas, let me
48:02
know. And I'll be happy to buy you a beer and shoot the bull,
48:06
but we'll have a good time next week, all right, Mark Kay,
48:09
I'm ready. Let's get rolling. Sounds good, folks, Everybody out
48:14
there, give us a rating and give us a review. We'd love to
48:15
hear from you, no matter what you got to say. Hopefully we're gonna
48:19
redeem ourselves after last week and we'll knock a couple out of the park.
48:22
We'll talk to you soon.