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NFL Week 6 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: is our Week six Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Milman,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: off of a four and one week in our contest,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: another winning week five and oh the week before we
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: recorded our Sunday episode before Sunday Night Football, and as
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: we said on the show, a lot of the lines
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: we like to have already moved, which is why you
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: need to listen to the Sunday show if you want
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: to get the best of the number. Today we will
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: get to our assignment says and our exact decision. Thursday,
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: we will do sharp calls, big balls, and foxhole. This episode,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: we'll look at the entire board as we begin narrowing
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: down the five pig will enter in the Favorites Podcast.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: One hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pickup contests still open
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: for sign up, still free to play, still awarding weekly
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: and season long cash prizes at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: By the way, I got a lot of questions and
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: notes this week about accessing the contest through the app.
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  Speaker 1: were in the app, and that suck them to the site.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Please bookmark favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. All right, let's
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: bring in my co host, my bff, my companion, my
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: compadre professional better signon Hunter et Oh, so I'm in.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Hello, hotcha, good morning, my guy.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I was reading the chat the other day and someone
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: had a response, why do I always use an English
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: accent when I introduce you? For those who are new
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: to the show and don't know s i'mon is from England,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: and so I introduced him in a way that makes
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: him feel more comfortable, as if it's akin to his
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: native tongue.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: No, if you want to make me more comfortable chat,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: you would tell me a dark joke, which you don't do,
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: which is very American of you. So that's the British
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: way I'd come in. You'd call me a piece of shit,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: make fun of my mother, and then we get into
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: a podcast. I'd be way more British. But yeah, if
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: you didn't know by the name Simon Hunter, which sounds
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: very British, im posh. I am British, but not the
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: rich British. I was like the peasants.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: You were like peaky Blinders before they became gangsters. True, true, Yeah,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: way up in the North, all right, Simon brock Purty.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: The Niners, they did exactly what we expected them to
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: do on Sunday Night, Throttle the Freaking Cowboys. That was
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: our first bet last week. It was one of our
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: biggest bets last week. The Niners now the odds on
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: favorite to win the super Bowl ahead of Kansas City.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Brock Purty seven to one to win. MVP. Reminder, you
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: did a film session after week won and rock Perty
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: and how good he was. We talked about MVP adds
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: for pretty then McCaffrey also fifteen to one party seven
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: to one. I'd still buy McCaffrey at this point.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I'll give a shout to our guy, Matthew Freeman.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: We had him on some random ass show. I feel
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: like Man Mitchell had him under our own mail back show.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: It was the most random thing ever, but he had
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: him on and he gave out Purty like seventy five
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: to one hundred and one, something crazy like that. For MVP,
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: and I poo pooed it because I just was like,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: the kid's coming off an arm injury. He's gonna start slow,
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: blah blah blah, looking like a great We're great bet
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: there by Matthew Freeman Purty seventy five to one. MVP
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: did not see this coming shot Like I knew that
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: it would be good played in the system, YadA, YadA, YadA.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: He came back from a major elbow injury like that
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: was no off season. Threw him to the Wolves. You know,
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: QB competition, we get one of these rare gems every
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: twenty years, you know, the Kurt Warners, the Tom Brady's,
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Like these guys who no one believes in. They find
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: the right coach, the right system. It's truly mind blown.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: Every time I say his fucking name, Perdy, it's mind blowing.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: So can't give enough props as forty nine Ers team,
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: Like I would love to say they're not the best
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: team of football, but they are right now, which doesn't
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: mean should for the best team in October. But as
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: a fan, that's got to feel really good. Where the
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: Cowboys game was next level. Look on the move, making
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: throws downfield, throws fifty to fifty balls right on target.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: I can't believe it. Chad, like this kid, mister Irrelevant.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: You go back and watch his college tape. You will
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: not believe that's the same person. Year two. This kid's
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: playing this.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Well, Simon, it's not October, it's p October. Shout out
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: t Stucky, Shout out to Colin Wilson. Shout out Big
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Bets on Campus podcast, best college football podcast there is.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Bet three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.
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  Speaker 1: never ordinary at Bet three six five. Must be eighteen
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  Speaker 1: and over in Kentucky and twenty one and over in Colorado, Iowa.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Kentucky or Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio or Virginia. Gambling
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: problem called one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio,
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: and Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Terms and conditions and restrictions apply. Favorites. Contest Update Week
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: five Winners roundup. Wow, you know we got like twelve
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: thousand people in this contest. Week five. In the contest,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: we had two hundred and ninety three entries finished five
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: and zero. We had a four way tie for first
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: because they nailed the tiebreaker length of the Raiders first drive,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: which was twenty five yards. Congrants to our winners. This
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: week's producer couple ward goes to Dylan Danielson for finishing
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: dead fucking last in the Week five contest, going zero
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: to five and missing the tiebreaker by fifty yards. Dylan
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: email producer Matt Mitchell at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: to claim your non cash prize. Thanks for playing. Week
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: six is now live the Monday Night Football tiebreaker total
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: rushing yards on Monday Night Football. Good look everybody? All right?
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Quick reminder some futures at Simon and I have in
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: the offing. Justin Herbert lead the league in passing twenty
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: five to one he had a buye. Not much to
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: say there. Tyreek Hill lead the league in receiving yards
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: at nine to one, all alone in first and Justin
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Jefferson expected to be out the next few weeks. Jalen
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Carter now minus money to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: We got him at seven to one before the season started.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Another great day for him included a sack, vicious sack
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: of Matthew Stafford. We have bet Christian McCaffrey to win MVP.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: We have bet Josh Allen to win MVP when he
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: was down to ten to one. That one may be
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit tougher. Now, all right, let's get to it. Simon.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: We talked about this on Sunday night. Denver is visiting
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. It's already a pros Joe's game. We said,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: we have to bet the Broncos, which we did on
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Sunday night ten and a half. We think we will
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: lose it. It's a historically bad defense that has already made
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Justin Field and Zach Wilson look like they might be
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: serviceable NFL quarterbacks. They are last in the league and
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: pressure rate second most in yards after the catch. Aloud,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: everything Mahomes dominates. They do badly. The only thing we
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: have going for us right now is that Mahomes has
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: twenty four games as a favorite of ten or more
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: ten thirteen and one against the spread.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, of those covers are against this Denver team. I
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: think that much. Agree with me last show, like, we
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: bet this every time.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: You know what, though we did win last year. Last year,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: remember the Chiefs were up like twenty four in the
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: first half and we came back and covered.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: So there we go. We got one. But yeah, we'll
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: bet this number. You guys can join us. I hate it.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: I hate it every year, but we bet this every year.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: Like you're in a divisional game. You're catching more than
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: ten points on a short week. Travis Kelcey is dealing
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: with the bum ankle like the Chiefs offenses does not
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: look right, I mean the vikings. I'm not trying to
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: be such an Eagles homer, but I think the general
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: public is ttarting to see what Eagles fans were bitching about.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: Where the refs and this Chiefs team. This shit is ridiculous.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: That Jets game that call that the flag after the
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: pick ridiculous. The last game, the refs saying to the player,
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: put your helmet back on. The guy takes his helmet off.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: Chatnet if you saw this clip. A player on the
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: Chiefs took his helmet off to go talk to the
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: refs on the field, and the ref said to him
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: put your helmet back on or off the throw flag?
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: And what were there's a ref sayto a player put
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: your onla back on. They just throw the flag. So
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: this Chiefs team is the NFL darling clearly like this,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: you can't make it up. They want them to succeed.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: Apparently the swift thing is real. Chad knows, like we'll
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: bet this number every time. Like there's a few teams
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: right now I have blacklisted, And you think I would
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: with the Broncos after last week, not at all. Like
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: I don't blame Russ or anyone for that loss last week.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: It's just we'll take the ten and a half in
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: Russell Wilson and this Denver team.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: That was a great conspiracy rant.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: It's seven in the morning, Chad, you're living.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Large in Hawaii right now? What teams are on your blacklist?
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: We've never talked about this.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: Like what team will I not bet right now? No
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: matter how good the number is. Yeah, the Giants definitely
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: are there right now. I just don't think the books
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: are caught up to how injured out injured that team is.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: And it worked out for me last week. I made
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: a big number on Miami, came through and after losing
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: money just betting against them. This forty nine Ers team,
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: like we're gonna talk talk about this week, but like
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: I'm having a tough time trying to fade this porn
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: irons team and I wanted to this week. We talked
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: Sunday night, like I took them early just because I
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: thought they would blow out the Cowboys and we'd get
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: a good number. They're kind of breaking the mold right now.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: The forty nine Ers are just so good.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: But we're getting Mike vrabel As a three and a
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: half point dog in London facing the Baltimore Ravens. Other
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: than the fact the game is in London, everything else
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: lines up for us to want to be on Tennessee
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: and on Sunday Night. The game opened at four and
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: a half for a blip that it was at four
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: for about twenty four hours, and now it's down to
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: three and a half. We've got a very public dog
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: here the money and the tickets coming in on the Titans,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: the secret may be out that Lamar Jackson not as
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: good as a favorite. Certainly a little bit of deflation
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: on the Ravens because what happened last week. But look,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: we got Mike Vrabel as an underdog and not being
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: in the US. I'm not sure how we take that
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: into account. You tell me, do we care? But Rabel
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: is an underdog of more than more than three twenty five,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: twelve and one in his career.
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it stinks. I thought I was so excited. We
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: were both like, we're getting four and a half home dog, Rabel.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: It's in London. Talk to some really smart guys. If
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: coming heavy on the Ravens. I've seen some lines, you know,
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: some Sharper books back up to minus four and a
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: half on the Ravens. I don't know what to deal
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: with them. I'm glad we don't put in our contest either.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: It's like I want to take Rabel and everything like that.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: But the Ravens, I don't know what the exact stat was,
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: but it was something crazy of like they had one
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty yards and three touchdowns and drops against
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh team, Like, that's how bad the receivers were
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: for Lamar. I'd like to I see from Tennessee, like
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Tannehill doesn't look as bad as he looked last year
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: or even early in the season. And you know, the defense,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: sure they got some weaknesses to it, but against the run,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: they're really strong. And that's still what the Ravens want
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: to do. Right. We saw them try to be a
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: more pass passing offense and just really hasn't worked so
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: far in the early in this seas so happy me
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: and you have to put this in the contest, but
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: do me and try to have a choice, like if
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: this is four and a half again, we'll be with
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: the public and we'll take the public dog of the
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: week and we'll take tennesssee most likely, Yeah.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: We kind of have to. I mean, the only thing
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: is London enough to make us reconsider how we feel, right,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: because that's the only difference. I'm not afraid of betting
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: on Ryan Tannehill as an underdog right now because I
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: think they're not. They're not going to stop going for
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: it over the course of the game.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: It feels like it's a huge number. That's the biggest thing, right,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: That's just a really big number.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: We're playing the number. Another game that I think we're
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: playing the number. Minnesota visiting the Chicago Bears game open
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: to three. I bet Bears plus three. You and I
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: haven't even discussed this yet. It's now down to two
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: and a half. It might be why it moved. When
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: I first saw this game, I thought it's too early
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: to stake out a position. And then the more I
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: thought about it, the more comfortable I was betting on
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: the Bears. And that was before the Justin Jefferson news.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: But I want your sort of unfiltered take.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Feels like one of the easier phases of the week.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: Bears won a game by twenty last Thursday. The Vikings
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: have lost. They didn't cover either, Like people are totally
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: out of this team. You tell me this number will
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: be three and a half if Jeff Jefferson was playing
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: or three. So it moved half a point because he's
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: out of this game. It all feels like fugezy to me.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: So looking at this number, I'll take minus two Minnesota
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: against a Bears team that I don't know how they
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: can handle winning. Chat they hadn't won in a calendar
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: year basically, now they had a whole ten days to
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: be saying themselves, we're back like their fans are back in.
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: Everyone's drinking the kool aid again. I don't want to
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: do this. I don't want to be backing Kirk here,
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: but we have to. We're getting under a field goal
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: against one of the worst defenses in all football. I'm
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: not going to react too much. I do love what
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: the Bears did and how they look. It's really fading
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: that Bears defense, like the fields still is inconsistent. He's
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: still a guy that he's going to turn the ball
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: over at some point in this game. This defense to
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: the Vikings, they might be terrible. They're going to be
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: blitzing fields like crazy. That's what this this team does.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: So the turnovers are going to be that, the opportunity
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: are going to be there. I won't let it scare
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: me off, Chad. Like if this was three and a half,
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: I probably would go Bears. The signs moved way too
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: much off a guy's injury that I don't think he's
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: worth as much as the spread as people perceive. So
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: I'll take the value on the Vikings.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: All right, So I bet the Bears plus three and
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: it has nothing to do with the Bears winning and
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: the Vikings losing. It has everything to do with something
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: you just said, the Vikings blitzing. And it's not because
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I think Justin Field is going to be great against
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: the blitz I think it's because the Minnesota Vikings are
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: freaking terrible at blitzing, because they're blitzing NonStop, but they're
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: not getting to the quarterback ever. So I was reading
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Bill Barnwell yesterday and he had this great stat Who's
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: really the worst team? And he went through all the
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: teams that are, you know, the Bears and the Vikings
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: and the Giants and the Panthers and the Broncos. Right, So,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: the Vikings are blitzing at one of the highest percentages
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: in the league, but all it's doing is leaving their
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: really bad secondary vulnerable. So this is from Barnwell. Zero interceptions,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: six sacks on one hundred and eight plays with extra pressure.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: That is half the league wide sack rate on blitzes.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: And they're allowing on those blitzes a ninety one QBR
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: because their secondary is so bad. So with the Bears,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: what they've done actually the past two weeks, and we've
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: talked about this, they started to put Justin Fields in
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: a position to succeed by letting him run a little
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: bit more. And I think it's opened up the back
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: end of the offense a little bit because now teams
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: need to account for that. They don't have to count
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: for that in all the first three weeks to RPOs
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: the first two weeks, that was fewer than Mac Jones.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: And I also think that the connection with djmore the
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: past two weeks is giving him more confidence and also
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: making them a much better team. And we believed before
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: the season the Bears would be a better team because
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: in the same way Jalen Hurts got better with AJ Brown,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen get better with Stefon Diggs, Justin Fields would
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: get better with the number one caliber receiver. That's why
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: I bet the Bears.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: All right, I'm not gonna try to convince a guy
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: who's a Bears fan to fade the Bears. I get it.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: This has listen, listen, this has nothing to do with it.
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: Unluckiest team in football is the Vikings. Go look at
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: the luck rankings. You love luck rankings. I gave it
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: to you. They are a top three unluckiest team of
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: football right now in Minnesota.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Cousins has historically struggled with bad teams eleven twenty one
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: and one eleven twenty and one against the spread versus
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: teams with a win percentage of thirty three percent or less.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's not ideal.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: That ideal not ideal. Indianapolis is visiting Jacksonville. Anthony Richardson
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: will not be playing. We like this one. We grabbed
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: it a five and a half. It started moving when
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: we were on the show, Money and tickets all on
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: the Colts, and that was even before the Richardson news.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: To me, it just feels like way too much inflation
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: on the Jags after beating Buffalo who honestly could barely
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: feel the defense and still almost won the game.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really tough if it was such an inflated number,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: I believe. I think gave us a stat last week
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: like a team that comes back from London and doesn't
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: take the bye. Apparently all their games are super close,
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: and we had that with Atlanta last week, like the
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: game really did come down to the last nap. So
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: I'm right there with you, Chad. We're getting a big
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: number another team that's a real public dog. But you know,
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: me and Chad we like this number, so it sucks
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: and it moves so much, but we're still getting a
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: four and a half, which is such a key number.
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: Of course, I'm gonna bet that. I already have betted,
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: like Chad said, I bet the five and a half,
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: bet five yesterday. I'll bet the four and a half
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: again today. It's just a big number for a matchup.
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: We think it's ana come down to the fourth quarter.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: So how do you not take the points here against
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: the Jaguars team that they've looked incredible for two weeks
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: But me and Chad said it like that was in London.
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: Now they're coming back home. Let's see if they can
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: carry the momentum back home where the last time they're
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: at home in Jacksonville they got blown out by Houston.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: This numbers should probably be three, three and a half
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: overreaction to maybe Richardson being now in this line open
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: five and a half and you've seen the pros just
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: bet it down. So I'm happy to take the four
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Chad, Yeah, I'm putting this one on the list. First
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: game we're putting on the list as a potential entrant
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: in our Phase five. We talked about this on Sunday.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Even when Minshew came in, I made a note, do
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: not feel anxious about Anthony Richardson being replaced by Gardner Minshew.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: This Colts team, they tackle well, they do the basics well.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: So there's a verblelesque feel to this team. Put themselves
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: in a position to win when there is an opportunity
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: to win the game.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair to say.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Yep, all right, another game Sunday night, we talked about Seattle.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: Seattle was a three point underdog. The line has moved
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: to two and a half. This is a pros Joe's
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: game against the Bengals. I should say tickets on the Bengals,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: money on Seattle. I grabbed Seattle plus three two and
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: a half. I don't like it as.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: Much like I want to go to the Bengals because
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: this is a great matchup for their offense where you
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: can pass the ball on the six. I know they
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: look like, you know, the best team ever against Daniel Jones,
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: this Giants team, But you mean you know they're not Chad.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: We know the Seahawks have a bunch of weaknesses and
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: good teams can exploit them if you have the right
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: receiving corps, you can really exploit this young secondary that
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: the Seahawks team has. So you know, if I read
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: all week that Joe Burrow is still moving well and
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: no setbacks, two and a half on the Bengals and
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: a healthy Joe Burrow probably can end up on it.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: Like you watch that game against Arizona, he was scrambling,
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: he was moving in the pocket and then on the
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: move making those downfield throws, which for three weeks you
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: watch the same footage he could not hit those throws
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: on the run. And now it looks like he kind
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: of got his groove back and his rhythm back and
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: his timing back. With Chase, it's a big deal. Like
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: so me and Chad, I hate being on the public side,
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: but it feels like a two and a half, that's
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: a good number to back this Beangals team. So I'll
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: throw a little bet on it now and then well,
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: you know, I'll know more by Thursday about what the
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: prosury on this one. But my first glance, first things
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: think was kind of chow where it's like I wanted
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: to take the Seahawks. But then after going back watching
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: the Arizona game, Joe Burrow looks like old Joe Burrows.
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: So I'll take him here as a desperate team to
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: get back to three and three, like they need this
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: game to get back to five hundred. So I like
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: Joe in that position.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: So here's the thing about the Bengals that has me equivocating.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: What do we know about that Arizona team and what
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: do we know about the quality of that win? Joe
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: looked amazing. Do we end up giving Joe too much
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: credit for beating an Arizona team that had been overperforming?
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: No, because I just I wanted to see him move.
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: That's like it could have been anyone out there. It
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: doesn't matter what the team was. It could have been
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: your ebarrass team, the worst, one of the worst defensive
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: in football. Just seeing him move when it made me happy,
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: Like the guy had him been moving outside the pocket,
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: He had him been moving around inside the pocket like
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: you go and watch that Tennessee team. It looks like
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: Joe had never played football before. Like he just would
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: stand back there he was counting a five in his
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: head and then just get sacked and like Joe healthy
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: against Arizona, he didn't look that way, like he'd count
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: the three in his head once it got past three,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: like old Joe, he'd move into the pocket or he'd
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: get outside the pocket and use his feet. So that's
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: really what I wanted to see. And I mean, you
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: could totally get burned if we going on this week
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: against the Seahawks and Joe isn't right and he isn't
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: healthy and that was just some mirage against the Cardinals.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: But from all everything I've seen the tape, everything I've
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: read from the Beat writers this week, sounds like Joe's
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: kind of gotten over that leg injury.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: Carolina visiting Miami. Miami is a fourteen point favorite right now.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: Last week on the show, talked for a minute about
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: the Giants, and ultimately you decided to back Miami as
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: a really big favorite. Turned out to be exactly the
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: right call, Carolina. You talked about luck rankings, and you
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: know how much I love the luck rankings by Sean
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Kerner and Nick Ifin and Billy Ward, our predictive analytics team.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Everyone must check them out. They will do like what
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: the expected score would have been. If you clean up
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: the noise of unforeseen circumstances, right, you get rid of
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: some turnovers, you get rid of some bad luck. Et cetera,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Carolina this year, the expected scores in their
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: game would have been like ninety one for Carolina, one
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty four for their opponents. The actual score
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: in their games ninety one for Carolina, one hundred and
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: forty four for their opponents. Carolina is exactly who we
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: think they are, a terrible football team with Bryce Young
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: averaging the fewest air yards per completion or something like that.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Awful football team to be back Miami again as a
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: massive favorite.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: And I don't know if you saw a clip of
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: Frank Reich talking about what everything I went into get
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: in Bryce Young, but he basically put it on the owner,
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: like he pretty much openly said I wanted a different quarterback,
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: and the owner was the one that stepped in and
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: we talked. See that, Yeah, we talked in nauseum all
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: off season before the draft. Everything I was hearing and
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: how everything I heard was everyone on the coaching staff
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: was all in on CJ. Everyone loved CJ brought up
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: for the inner and they loved him, loved the kid.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: And then out of nowhere before the draft, the Bryce
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: Young number moved and it looks like it was the
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: owner that stepped in and took this kid, which you
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: know is looking like a total total bust. Like this
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: kid is just undersized. He looks completely terrified out there,
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: and I don't want to put too much on him
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: because they're just it's just really not his fault. Like
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: I think Bryce Young does have a ton of talent.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: He's one of the smartest quarterbacks ever come out of
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: college football. They just they they've set him up to fail.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: And you know, I tried to go in on him
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: last week at plus ten. It was a good number
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: against that Lions team. They totally steamrolled him, like every
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: time he has the ball. I just have no confidence
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: in this team getting downfield and scoring, and I want
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: to take them here. This is such a big number.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: But if you're giving me some books, I have at
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: thirteen and a half right now for Miami and Tua
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: had a bad game last week and they still covered
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: at sixteen, Like he threw a pick six and they
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: still beat the Giants by double digits. So they're a team.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: I told you I wouldn't get caught by this Miami team.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: I had just in my rankings even after the Bills game.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: They got blown out by the Bills. I did not
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: move them in my powering because I kept them right
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: where I had them before the game, which was right
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: behind the Bills. It's like, you know, they're they're just
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: not that they're not that bad of a team compared
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: to these other top tier teams. So if I'm gonna
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: give these, you know, tons of respect to these really
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: good teams like the Lions, who I should have gave
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: more respect to against this Carolina team, I have to
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: deal here with Miami Chad, So I hate doing it.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: I hate taking a big favorite again back to back weeks.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: But how does Carolina keep up in this game? Like
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: is Adam Feeling really gonna go off again for another
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty yards in a touchdown? Like it's
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: just it just isn't there for Carolina. They're like they're
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: gonna get if they get into shootouts, they're never gonna win.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: I don't think they have the dogs on defense anymore
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: to get stopped. So I'm not seeing how this team
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: makes the moves and makes the decisions. And the coaching
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: too on Carolina, like they're just they're just so outclassed
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: right now compared to Miami. I'll do the chalky pick.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: I'll take the big favorite of Miami here under fourteen though.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: If you can thirteen and a half, that's a big
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: deal to me, So hopefully you can find that thirteen
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Producer Tita just put a note in the chat. In April,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: Panthers owner David Tepper said the team didn't need an
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: elite wide receiver because Bryce Young was going to be
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: playing QB like a point guard. You know what's interesting,
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: You and I are more afraid to bet a team
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: that is setting offensive records as a two touchdown favorite
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: than we are to bet on a terrible team with
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: one of the worst quarterbacks performing quarterbacks in the NFL
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: right now? Isn't that interesting? Like the psychology of betters
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: that a fourteen point favorite, which is an automatic play
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: for the public, is scarier for us than a fourteen
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: point underdog on a terrible team.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: It's also for a good reason, Like when Tua threw
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: that pick six, I was like, well, that BET's dead.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: Like you don't overcome a pick six, Yeah, I had
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: your favorite.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: I guess sucked.
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, But Miami their offense is so good. That's why
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: it's like I want to get there. The Panthers. But
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: after a bad week, I expect Miami to get things
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: right offensively, and this is a great game to get
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: right again.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: New Orleans is visiting Houston. The Houston Texans are one
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs. CJ. Shroud looked great the
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: other day. Can it look great for three and a
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: half quarters and then he looked like a guy who
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: knows what he's doing. New Orleans blew out Bill Belichick
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: and the Patriots. To me, that was a smash spot.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: You sort of could see that coming. It's a tough
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: one for me.
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: To me, it is really obvious where it shouldn't be,
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: but it is. It's you're back in a Saints veteran
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: defense against the rookie quarterback like this kid. Once again,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: he's been playing out of the world. But every week
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: you're getting more tape on him. Every week. It's gonna
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: get a little tougher for CJ. Teams are going to
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: take away what he likes to do. Here comes the Saints.
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: Like the Saints offense, I have no faith in. Even
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: after that New England game, I still have a lot
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: of questions right now about Derek Carr. I just I
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: don't know if he's fully healthy after taking that shoulder
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: injury a couple of weeks ago. So if you're like
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: me and you went back to Saints, just you're back
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: in this veteran defense against this rookie QB. But I
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: totally get it if you're coming on Houston. I know
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: a really sharp group that came in on Houston. I
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: believe this number is three plus two and a half
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: when it opened. They came in now it was just
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: stuck at one and a half. So it's another week
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: of pros are on both sides, Like there's guys like
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: me who really like the Saints team, believe in this defense.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: And then there's the other side of the ball where
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: it's like CJ's performed well against really good defenses all season,
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: Like this guy's played well in every game, and you know,
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: I want to get there with him. But the line
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: to me has just moved too much. Like we're getting
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: the Saints now and minus one and a half against
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: this Houston team. I just I don't want to say
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: it feels like I'm a little crazy, but it does.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: When I'm talking to people, are just like, well, you
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: got to take Houston here. It's like, do we really like,
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: is this really We're just gonna keep buying high on
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: this Houston team after they just keep covering every week.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: So yeah, in an ideal world, this summer would have
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: been three and I could have been on Houston. But
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: it's it's moved too much. I'll just take the value
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: on the Saints team that basically they just need to
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: win this game to cover this number.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Dennis Allen continues to be one of the worst coaches
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: in the past twenty years, just saying.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: Defense is good though.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Man, he's a good defensive coordinator. The other day, my
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: buddy Seth who has been on the podcast Seth Wickersham,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: who wrote a best selling place.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: Was that New York Times bestseller New York Times bestseller?
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: A couple New York Times bestsellers cutting it up?
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, couple guys cutting it up. You know what we
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: were doing. Actually, he lives nearby and his kid. You know,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: he's got a young kid who had like a soccer
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: practice at a school nearby, so he had an hour
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: to kill and he was near the house. He came
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: over on Friday afternoon, went outside and we threw the
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: football around, We played some catch and I was like Seth,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: Why does Dennis Allen have a job as an NFL
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: head coach? And then as he as the Saints were
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: killing the Patriots, He's like, Dennis Allen is killing the
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: Patriots Right now, I'm like, Dennis Allen is killing the
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: Patriots in spite of himself. He's killing the Patriots because
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Mac Jones is a terrible quarterback. That's what he's doing.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: He runs a good scheme. I agree with you, Like
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: it's the same thing as Josh McDaniels last night. That
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: guy is such a fucking idiot. Like he might be
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: a great offensive coordinator, that dude cannot coach. He does
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: not know to use his timeouts or anything like that.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: You're right there, you're saying, like, I agree with you
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: totally about Dennis Soud. The guy makes such stupid head
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: coaching decisions all the time. But defensively he's a genius.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: Like his defenses are so good. Every week they come
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: prepared and they just they scheme up so well against
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: whoever they're playing against. I mean, I think the best game,
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: the worst game they've had this year was against Baker
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: in that offense and now is just because it was
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: never any short fields like every time his defense got
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: on the field, the ball was already in their zone.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: So I could be having a big miss hear, You're right,
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: chat Like, I'm probably putting little too much faith into
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: his defense here, but I got to take him in
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: this defense against this rookie QB.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: All Right, San Francisco at Cleveland. Look, this is the
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: game that we're dying to talk about. The Niners fifteen
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: consecutive regular season wins ties the forty nine Ers record
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: set when it was Joe Montana and Bill Walsh. Right,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: They've scored thirty plus points in eight straight regular season games,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: longest street for a interfest NFC team since the Rams
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: of ninety nine two thousand, the Kurt Warner Super Bowl
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: winning Rams. You wisely said, take this game at three
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night. Gotta listen to the Sunday Night Pod.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: I have since taken the Browns at plus five. It
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: is now five and a half. It may go higher.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: I took it kind of thinking Deshaun Watson might play
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: and thinking it wouldn't go higher. Now it has, and
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: I feel like a dope. Explain your thoughts here, because
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: you had a really good comment, and if you don't
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: say it, then I'll remind you what it was about
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: the Niners in this position in the schedule and what
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: this should have been.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this was a scheduled loss. Like this was gonna
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: be our easiest bet of the week. Everyone in the
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: world was gonna come in heavy on the forty nine ers.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: This is just the classick example of the not that
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: the general public doesn't look into things. We look into chat,
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: but they don't understand that the Brown's biggest strength is
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: their d line. The forty nine ers biggest weakness is
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: their offensive line. I know it didn't show up against
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys like you thought it would, but there isn't
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: just a Parsons you could take away from this Browns team, Like,
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: even if they take away Garrett, there's other guys on
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: this te line that are, you know, just as talented
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: get into the quarterback. So this was going to be
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: such an easy ben. We talked Sunday night, like I
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: was making that bet on the forty nine Ers just
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: in case they blow at Dallas. I was like, there's
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: no way this sign will stay at three. We didn't
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: know Watson was still really banged up, and that's why
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: this line I think has moved so much. It's not
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: just because the public has come in on it. It's
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: the books predicting against all the money line and teasers
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: are gonna be getting on this foreigners team. Like my brother,
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: one of the most public betters I know, he was like, yeah,
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: this week Eagles Teezers, forty nine Ers Teezers, this week
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: Rams Teezers with the forty nine ros Teezer. Like everyone's
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: gonna be doing those really chalky teasers, and there's always
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: gonna we're gonna talk all these other games. There's like
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: a bunch of games this week that I really love.
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: The home dog getting no love from the public. The public,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: they've had their week. I think it's sixty two percent
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: so far. The team's getting the most tickets have covered
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: that that's so rare. I think it's the most the
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: public has won since two thousand and five. So, man, chat,
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: they're gonna get caught eventually. And we've had a nice
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: run where we've we've really danced around these last couple
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: of weeks, Like you know how much I love to
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: fade the public, But there's been certain lines where just
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: like that, that line just isn't right. The books haven't
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: caught up to it. So this one on paper was
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: going to be the easiest bet ever. We're gonna go
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: all in the Browns and a huge light down spot
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: for the forty nine Ers. Team forty nine ers were
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: going to lose this game. Now. If it's PJ Walker
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: against this forty nine Ers defense, forget about it, they're dead.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: This number should be seven air above. So if you're
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: for asking me what the value is right now. If
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: Watson doesn't play, it's easily on the forty nine Ers.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: If this game is seven and a half comes Sunday morning, mean,
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: Chad might have to talk about it because it's like
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: that's a that's a big number to take. So if
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: you're out there you want to take the forty nine
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: ers team you missed the three week gave out Sunday night,
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: you can go ahead and take it. Take the five now,
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: and if Watson's out, you're gonna have good value. If
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: he comes back in, you can ride with me and
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: Chad Like, if Watson's playing this game, the Browns will
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: be in our contest. This we'll be an automatic bet
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: this week if it is Watson. If not, go out
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: of the value right now, is in the forty nine
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: erser get a good number, Simon.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: I want you to make Little Caesars, which is the
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: official pizza sponsor of the NFL, part of your game day. Oh, Simon,
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: does a game day without Little Caesars even count as
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: a game day?
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: Not at all?
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: Not at all. Order online during our pizza pizza pre
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: game one hour before NFL games and get ready for
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: some football and fun. Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: or pick the toppings you crave. Simon, what is crustier
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: the crust of a Little Caesar's pizza or Bill Belichick.
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: The crust on the pizza.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: However you ordered your crust you And speaking of winning,
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: everyone scores with convenient delivery or our in store pete
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: supportal pick up. So grab some friends and enjoy a
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: few slices during the game. Washington at Atlanta Atlanta is
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: now a two and a half point favorite. Again, we
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: owe people, of Simon says, we owe people in exact decision.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: I got two things coming up that could go either way.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: I have no interest, in no opinion in this game.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: I you shockingly I like Washington here. I was hoping
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: I was gonna stay at three, and that would have
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: been a really nice number to take, especially in contest
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: if it was gonna be three and a half automatic play. Sure,
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: Desmond made some good throws last week. When I go
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: back and graded it, he had the most completions on
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: balls that shouldn't have been completed. Like his wide receivers
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: did amazing things for him last week, made amazing catches.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: He was thrown into crazy tight windows, which he completed it. Like,
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: I'm not hating on the kid, but over time, he's
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: not that guy, like I've seen him through five weeks.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: He just he's inconsistent. And if I'm looking at team
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: that's been undervalded right now, and you know, when Fields
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: is hot and you've got a wide receiver like DJ,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: they can make any defense look really dumb and bad.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: And Washington they might have a bad defense, like we've
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: had multiple weeks now where they've kind of been blown
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: up and they've been passed against by really good offenses.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: Atlanta doesn't have Russell Wilson. Atlanta doesn't have a Jalen Hurts,
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: they don't have a Justin Fields type. They got Desmond Ridder,
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: who's coming off arguably his best pass game of his career.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: So it burned me last week trying to fade a
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: quarterback like Zach Wilson, who had the best week of
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: his life. He didn't play that well against Denver, like
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: he made some vic throughs, but overall he wasn't like spectacular.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: I expect the same year for desmon Ridder, like I
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: expect him to have a down game. He's inconsistent. That's
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: what he's been since he's been the NFL, and I'm
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: happy to pay for it, like I'll make the bet
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: on the dog. I'm gonna have him in our money
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: line around Robin Washington. That's just a team that people
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: wouldn't believe it. But they're not as bad as they've looked.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Like their offense can move the ball for defense, has
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: a really good front four. They have some things to
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: build off of that team. So to me, this line
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: should be you know where it's at. I wish it
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: was plus three like right now, technically the value is
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: comporting according to my model, the value is on Atlanta here.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: But I still think two and a half such a
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: key number. When we got burned by it last week,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: like this hit on the dog against Atlanta, It's hard
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: for me not to get sucked in and take this
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: plus two and a half on this Washington team chat.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: It's just I don't really see that big of a
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: difference between these two teams right now, so it doesn't
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: doesn't shock me. The public has come in and some
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: pros have coming on Atlanta. You know, that's just like
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: you said, you didn't really have an opinionless team. I
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: feel like a lot of people are gonna be that way.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: It's like both both these teams have such big weaknesses
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: and strengths. It's really hard to try to try to
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: get better. On one side.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: New England at Las Vegas look team of a horrible
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: loss versus a team that just won in prime time. Everything.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: We'll say Paths are undervalued. Las Vegas is overinflated teams
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: coming off a night game playing a team who lost
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: by twenty points and more since nineteen ninety the favorite,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: uh uh so that is the Raiders. One of the
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: next two games we're going to talk about will be
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: my exact decision. If you feel strongly about one of
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: the next two games, as he Simon says, I will
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: choose either one. But I think we got to put
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: New England plus three on the list here.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, definitely, we'll take the We'll take the plus three.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: They are horrible. They're like just thinking about it right now.
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, thank god I was off to them last
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: week because I took so much shit hearing from so
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: many pros. Kind of same thing as you, where it's
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: like you're back in Dennis Allen against Belichick, like this
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: is such a bad matchup. He's gonna get out coached.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: And it doesn't matter how good your coaching is when
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: you have a guy like Mac Jones, like this kid
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: gift wrapped that seat that sanes game like throwing picks
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: to pick six.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: He was dazed and confused the whole game. I know,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: it looked like it almost looked like we were watching
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: nineteen fifties football. He was just lobbing, like the ball
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: was a different shape and he was just almost pushing
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: it as far as he could in high arching throws.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: And I have to wonder if he has PTSD going
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: back here from last year where he had one of
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: the worst players we've ever seen in all football. Where
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: the game was tied, he completely got destroyed. The ball
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: taken away from the guy ran down the field. It
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: might have been Chandler Jones was someone like that, took
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: it the other way and scored the touchdown. That was that,
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: And since then everything has just gotten worse for this
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: Patriots team. Like ever since that moment, it's just all
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: been bad. So Chad's right, Like, maybe someone will come
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: into my life and hopefully talk me out of making
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: this one of our five. But this is what me
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: and Chad do. We buy low at the lowest point
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: on teams. It doesn't get any lower than this team.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: People thought the week before was rock bottom. Then they
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: came out and lost thirty four to nothing to that
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: Saints team. And you know another crazy stat. Mac Jones
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: already has many picks sixes in his early career as
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: Tom Brady did his entire career at Gillette. Like that's
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: just the difference between a Hall of Famer and a
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: guy that's probably gonna bet the league in a year
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: or two. So totally hate this game chat. It's making
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: me sick to my stomach thinking about taking it. But
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: that's how I felt last week with Pittsburgh. So Chad's
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: onto something here. We probably got to take this plus
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: three and just hold our nose and take the Patriots.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Here Detroit at Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay plus three and
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: a half. I bet the Tampa Bay. I bet three
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: and a half on Sunday Night. Huge pros Joe's game here,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: that's in the Lions money in the Bucks. Jared Goff
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: one hundred most profitable quarterback against the spread. I was
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: writing down notes on Sunday, Simon, are we going to
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: have to start talking about Jared Goff as MVP? But
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: his dome split road splits are terrible? Five hundred against
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: the spread. I don't think the market is adjusted to
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: the Bucks, and I think they've overinflated the Lions. Exact
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: decision Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I'll say a plus three. We
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: like it both ways. Three and a half and three.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: your honors? Text executive decision? So there's only threes out there.
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: I just want people get mad at us. You want
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: to get to three and a half here like that?
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: That was a big deal to me. Hopefully it comes back.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: Me and chatter I talked about the public is going
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: to be all over this Lions game. After that Dallas game,
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: I did move in my power ratings the Lions ahead
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: of them, but there's still a pretty big gap between
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: the Egos and the forty nine ers and the Lions
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: and the Dallas team. Like this Lions team, they have
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: looked incredible. They've been beating up on some bad teams lately.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: This is gonna be a good test for them. They're
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: going outdoors against a team that is just you know,
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: say what you want about Baker and this Tampa Bay
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: team and how lucky they've been. I know their luck
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: rankings are one of the luckiest teams we have right now.
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: They play really hard and like I look at all
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: their all the games they've been in, even that Eagles game,
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: Like if if Mike gmsdn't have those really bad drops
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: that they would have been in that game. Matt Mitchell
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: just said, it's the Cream School week too, Like they
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: got the Cream School Tampa Bay jerseys on. That's gotta
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: add another point to our line, right chet. So yeah, yeah,
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: just we love Tampa. We're hoping for three and a half,
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: Like that's what we want. We want the three and
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: a half public do your thing, coming on the line
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: team by at their peak. This is this is the
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: kind of team you guys, love me, Me and Chap
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: will just hope they get to three and a half.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: So uh, chack chack gave it out of three right now.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: That's only reason I'm not making my Simon says, it's
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: just I'm hoping I bet the three. I just want
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: people to know I've bet the three. But right now
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: most of my money's on the three and a half,
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: so I'm hoping to get back to that three and
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: a half. It's just it's such a key number in
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: a game that no one will be shocked that it
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: comes down to a field goal. Like these teams are
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: more evenly matched than people perceive.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: All right, look this next game is so hard Philadelphia
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: at the New York Jets. Jets are six and a
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: half point dogs. We faded the Jets last week's We
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: did not believe Zach Wilson could played well two weeks
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: in a row. I said last week, I don't want
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: to bet the Rams because the Eagles remind me of
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: the Patriot Circon twenty tens. Right, great coaching, great talent,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: super confident they can win even while like learning how
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: to play the game with all new coordinators and you know,
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: understanding a new system. Soon they are going to be perfect,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: and there were times against the Rams where they looked
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: truly dominant. It's a big number on the road. I
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: know I should like the Jets here talk me off
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: the Eagles.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: I almost made this our Simon says, Bet, just because
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: it's up to seven now for this Jets team, I'm
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: worried that number is going to disappear Jesus Christ. But
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: I won't do it to our fans. I won't do it.
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: I won't make our Simon says, but it might have
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: been our big balls. Bet, It's just how do you
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: not grab this seven right now? The Eagles are a
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: twenty eighth team right now in red zone offense like
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: last year, they're the thirteen red zones offense like that.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: You can see the difference between the offensive coordia from
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: last year, who looks amazing with this Colts team, and
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: this new OC we have with this Eagles that, yeah,
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: we're getting the ball downfield, we're driving downfield. The red
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: zone offense is really sloppy like and the Jets, the
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: way this team plays defenses, they kind of do the
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: old school Belichick thing where it's like between the twenties,
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: we'll give you guys all the yards you want, We're
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: gonna make you dink and dunk all the way downfield,
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: and then once you get in the red zone, that's
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: when we got our stops. And that's really what it
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: feels like this Jets team has been this year. So
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: you know, they do have weaknesses. I need to I
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: would want to know who's going on with their injuries,
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: Like if Sauces out, that's a big deal. And I
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: know they already lost on their offensive linemen this week.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: You know that's that's a big deal. This Jets thing
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: already had a really bad offensive line, So you know,
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna make it. Simon says, don't worry people,
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: but don't be shocked. This is what I mean. And
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: shot five, it's just a really good number against an
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: Eagles team that Jad's totally right. They have all the talent,
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: they should be one of the best teams in all football.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: There's just something missing with his team right now. And
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: you know, seven to points, seven points on the road.
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: Maybe I get that respect to the forty nine ers
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: who deserve it right now, but I don't think the
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: Eagles have deserved that kind of respect. So Jalen hurts
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: this year. What's he three? And oh? Now on the road?
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: Ats pretty shocking because that's usually where he struggles. I think,
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: I think we have a little bit of regression coming
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: and we'll catch We'll catch his Jets team on a
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: good number at plus seven and just take it.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: All right, So we'll wait. I do worry that Jalen
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: Carter will make Zach Wilson, uh just disappear into the earth.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: Now, it's scary. He could kill him.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: He honestly could kill him.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: He's so good, so good.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: He's so big. He looks bigger and faster than like
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: Fletcher Cox and Jordan Davis, Like it doesn't even look
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: like a comparison, and those guys are massive and fast.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: It's freakish. I'm so glad the Bears didn't take them,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: because that would have been a terrible idea for them.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: Uh Arizona at the Rams, I don't have a leaner
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: in edge here. The public loves the Cardinals. The wise
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: guys are on the Rams. I guess that should tell
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: me something.
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I wanted to get there the Rams, but this
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: is just a lot. That's a lot of points for
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: a rams them that you know, they just don't they
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: you feel like the kind of team chat that me
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: and you are gonna love back and as a dog
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: and then fading as a favorite this year. They're just
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: six and a half.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: By the way, that's the number right now.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, doesn't that feel huge? So that's that's the
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: only thing that's scaring me off, where it's like, why
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: wouldn't I be in the Cardinals here? That's such a
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: huge number. So a game I haven't put a penny
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: on yet. I'm not talking to some people see what
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: they're seeing on this one. But there's some games I
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: just want to read on. This is one of them
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: where it's like my gut is telling me you got
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: to take the Cardinals here, but my head's saying, why
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: why is this number so big? Doesn't make sense? Maybe
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: it's an over action to last week and the Cardinals
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: getting bown out by the Bengals and kind of everyone's
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: left them now and they're off this team. But isn't
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: that Usually when we kind of come in and buy
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: on the team chat, it feels like that's the right move.
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: But I just don't get why of some them we're
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: so big, Like right now I'm showing two points of
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: value right now in my model, like I have this
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: a four and a half, so don't be shocked if
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: we're in on this one again where it's like like
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: I like the Cardinals team and it's a big number,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: but fishy, fishy number that it's moved this much off.
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: I don't know a bad loss, I guess to the Bengals.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: So I don't know, Chad, just a weird number right
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: now that I don't really have to play on.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: I thought last week was hard, but this week shaping
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: up to be pretty hard too. Simon, can you name
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's their sponsor, game Time. I love game
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One, they sponsored their show too.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: pro and college football games. I'm going to open the
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: game Time app right now from my house here in Connecticut.
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: Guess what, folks, NHL season is opening right now. I
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: could go see the New Jersey Devils for seventy dollars
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: right here, not too far from my house. No matter
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: where you live, download the game Time app. Get out,
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: have some fun this week. Go sweat your bets live
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: and in person, and you can redeem code favorites for
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: download the app and enter code favorites for twenty dollars
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: off last minute tickets the lowest price guaranteed. Well, we're
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: not going to spend much time on this game because
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: it's the Giants at Buffalo, and you've already said the
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: Giants are blacklisted, so tea nothing to say.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and just keep an eye on Daniel Jones. He
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: might be injured. He might be missing this game. So
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: I want to take the Bills. The Bills have maybe
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: the worst injury of luck right now in football. I
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: think they're down two of their best.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: Atalano out, lost defensive back against the Jags, like lost
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: some offensive linemen. There trouble right now.
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: No, it's bad, like they're just they're just running into
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: really bad luck right now with injuries. So it's a
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: massive spread. I'm just gonna throw a little on, you
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: know whatever minus fourteen when the Bills, just in case
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: Dno Jones is out, even though if he is out,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: how much does this line really move you know that's
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: how bad it is right now.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: He's no justin Jefferson to the line. I'll tell you
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: that much.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So don't don't really know what to do with
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: this one with Chad right, we'll just keep it moving.
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: Monday night football, this is going to be your Simon says,
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: because we haven't had it yet. It's Dallas visiting the Chargers.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: The Cowboys were exactly who we thought they were on
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: Sunday night. We are not buyers, and Mike McCarthy, we
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: are not buyers. In Dak Prescott, we fell pretty alone
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: on the Niners at three and a half, and I
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: comfortably went to bed at halftime. What are we saying about,
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: Simon says.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: Here, Simon says, if you can find it, go grab
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: the two and a half on this Chargers team right
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: now plus two and a half. That's the most public
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: book in America. It's at two and a half, so
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: people will be able to find it. We gotta do it.
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: We take the dog here, we take the points, and
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: we hope Alan's on two. Like this Chargers team, they
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: always play down to their competition, which means when they're
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: playing bad teams usually have a letdown whenever he's playing
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: really good teams. Herbert in primetime games, he usually shows
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: up and plays really well. And looking at this matchup,
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: I mean it hurt them last week not having Digs
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: on that secondary and you saw how Perduk do whatever
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: you want passing against them. Now we got Herbert, Like
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: you think they're going to figure all this out in
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: a week to prepare against Herbert in this high powered
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: offense the Chargers have, I do not do you think
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: their their offensive line is going to figure out all
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: their struggles Like last week was the first time they're
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: five stars to play. They played together against that forty
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: Irons team. You know the foy I's got a decent
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: amount of pressure even early in the early in the game,
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: they're getting pressure. Now you know, I've no idea. I
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: Khalil Maccus found his groove after getting six sacks in
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: one game, but he did look different and Bo says
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: look better every game this year. So if the Chargers
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: can get their pass rushing going, we've seen Dak doesn't
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: like pressure at his feet like the guy throws when
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: he's off bounce or if he doesn't have his feet
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: set you saw yesterday, like he throws in the tight
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: windows and the ball is a little off target, It's
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: gonna be a pick. Like that's that's just how it
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: is with Dak So I wanted to get Dallas here
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: because I was just like, you know what, the public
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: will come in really heavy on the Chargers in this
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: line will probably be a pick. It's not like we're
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: getting plus two and a half right now. This Chargers team,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: that the mean, this line is gonna keep going down.
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: I think it will be two one and a half
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: by the time we come back on Thursday. So that's
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: why IM making them. Assimon says, I want to do
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: the Jets because it's at seven now, but I do
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: think the Jets could keep going up now they're getting injuries.
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: This Chargers team, I only can see this number coming down.
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: So if you can grab it, go get that two
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: and a half right now.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: You didn't give me a rundown on as of Tuesday.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Your biggest bets so far this week?
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: My biggest bet so far, I don't know. I had
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: a decent amount put into the forty nine Ers when
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: we did our show, and I did it a lot
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: on Tampa plus three and a half, So yeah, my
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: biggest bets right now, I feel like Tampa, Like Tampa's
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: probably my most most money bet at three and a half.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: Once again, I'm hoping you guys can get the three
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: and a half. I know it's gone, but that does
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: just I hope it comes back up for people. And
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: you know, right now, Chad, I guess Chargers for my
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: number two. Like I just I haven't gotten too much
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: down yet, I'd be honest, like I haven't liked the
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: prior weeks, even last week. I really have a lot
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: down until Friday Saturday. So it's shape up again this
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: week where I'm kind of with you, Chad, were like
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: after this week feels super tough. It's just tough for
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: me to make the bets where it's like I'm really
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: gonna have to stomach some of these bets, like this
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: Jets bet against the Eagles. It's uncomfortable, Like knowing that
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna have to bet this Brownson against the
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: forty hunders team really uncomfortable. Me and you talked about
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: Tampa game. Even though it's a great number, it's still
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: like I'm putting a lot of money on Baker at home,
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: and you know, one of the best teams on football
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: around this line. So definitely a week if you're a
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: fan of the show, it's it's gonna be one of
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: the tougher weeks. You just got to hold your nose
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: and make these bets like trust the numbers. Trust what
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: me and tarare peaching to you. That the public they've
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: kind of had their timeless sun. It's going to come
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: back down. It's going to come back down hard for them.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: We should change the name of this podcast to the
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Hold your Nose Podcast. It definitely ask people to do. Yeah,
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: it's like torture. As a reminder of the Favorites Podcast.
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• 53:27
  Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites live on the Action Network YouTube
• 53:30
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