Latest / Financial Survival Network / Still Bullish After All These Years -- David Morgan #5895

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Still Bullish After All These Years -- David Morgan #5895 · Financial Survival Network

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The idea is that the smart money gets back into goal relatively soon. And
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the central banks bought more gold in twenty twenty two that they had in decide
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and that's the smart one. And even though they pooh pooh gold on CNBC
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and the main financial channels, and they only ex seem to feature a gold
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feature on Goldens Down, the truth of the matter is that gold does well
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for preserving your well. And I'm going to digress for a minute, but
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at a money manager at a major brokerage house, I mean one of the
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top three that is now retired, and we had a chat on their crypto
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backed gold currency. You're listening to Carrie Let's Financial Survival Network, where you
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You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial
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Network now more than ever. And welcome you are watching and listening to the
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Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well, we got
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a rare treat. David Morgan is with us now the Morgan Report dot Com.
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We were just talking, David. It's been twelve years, and it's
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so funny because when we first met, you mentioned that, gee, this
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guy sounds great, but he's late to the party. Yeah. Well,
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we had met. I think it was in two thousand and ten, eleven,
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somewhere in there. And now we peaked in the medals as you know,
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Carrie April end of April, early May twenty eleven and silver in septembery
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in Gold twenty eleven, and you know, we we were kind of me
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and then people in my our genre. Uh, you know, we were
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very popular when gold had eleven years up, you know, in a row,
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and silver outperformed gold most of those years. We had some off years
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in other words, one over the year like gold was, but it did
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well, very well. And then you know, when we met, it
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would have asked me that we're going to go through this long new formation,
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meaning from the top all the way down, down, down down. Fine,
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you get the bottom a few years, get all the way back to
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what's called around trip or gold's back around the top of two thousand, and
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it's going to take till twenty twenty three to do so. I would have
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looked at you like get out of the business. You don't know what you're
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talking about. But here we are, and the fundamentals for gold is I've
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only gotten better. I called the run the gold months ago, and I'll
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believe I'll be vindicated. Not that it's about me, it's the message,
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not the messenger. But the idea is that the smart money gets back in
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the goal relatively soon. And the central banks bought more gold in twenty twenty
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two that they had in decade, and that's the smart one. And even
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though they poo pood gold on CNBC and the main financial channels, and they
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only seem to feature a gold feature when gold is down, the truth of
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the matter is that goal does well for preserving your well. And I'm going
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to digress for a minute, but at a Mney manager at a major brokerage
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house, I mean one of the top three that is now retired, and
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we had a chat on their crypto backed gold currency and he said, you
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know, all those years I worked at X y Z financial house, you
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know I put people in these stocks, in that stock, in the S
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and P and everything else, because all I put him in the gold the
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whole time. They will be better off now after be fair. That's from
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roughly the bottom to now. But if you measure from the bottom, go
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now stocks, bonds and gold, gold is outfformed everything. So now as
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it outperformed a certain stock mill, but has outperformed the index, gold is
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outperformed the S and P five hundred's outperformed the boy. They so back to
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you, Kerry, but you know, gold, I just want to go
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on a minute more, you know, especially early on he's like, oh,
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he's only a gold bug. He doesn't always talking about but they can
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stealthily ask the question of one of these radio hosts, especially the mainstream,
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that are kind of under educated about precious metals. So if I could give
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you an investment they had a compounded annual growth rate of ten percent per year,
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would you be interested in it? And of course the host would say
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yes. So while the one that's done that's gold, name me another one
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that's done a comp how to compound it adual growth rate at ten percent?
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They wouldn't be able to come up, So I don't know if you call
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it zero edge. Today, the new gold rush is fat, something that
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the Americans with the obesity epidemic seemed to be producing in prodigious record amounts.
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And their point was that the companies making anti obesity medicines the two biggest right
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now Eli Lilly with weggavi or we gov and Novardis with ozempic, and you
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know, they their market caps go to the roof. You know, Eli
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Lily is trading six times what it was in twenty twenty. So there's always
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a gold rush going on somewhere, whether it's AI or EV's or cloud storage,
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whatever it might be. But it seems like as far as figuring out
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ways to get people thin again by taking a magic pill, seems to really
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be the latest craze, doesn't it. It does, And I have to
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give you a story. I know this is an open forum, and I'm
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grateful for that, Kerry. But years ago I was getting on one of
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my many flights and two Scandinavians got on board just after I sat down.
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Both were taller than me. I'm a tall man, as you know,
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that blonde younger than me, fitness hell, and I was in the middle
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seed. One set next to me and the other set across when the aisle
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and they're talking, talking, talking, and they had they're going back home
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and they had toured in the United States of America and they seeing you know,
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Boston, Washington, DC, they did to Florida, made it out
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west. I mean, they did the whole, the whole shamol. So
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I listened carefully, and then I politely said, you know, I couldn't
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help overhearing that you had toured the US of A. And you know,
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if you don't mind me asking, I'd like, you know what, it's
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the most profound thing that you found out about America? You know? And
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of course I'm thinking, you know, maybe the Liberty Bell or the Washington
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Monument or you know, the Grand Canyon or whatever. And he looks at
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me and he says, all Americans are fat. I remember what I asked.
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I asked him, what's the most profound thing you found American? That's
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what he answered, All Americans are fat. I wasn't like a top shape,
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not that I've stayed in top shape my whole life, but I've stayed
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with been reasonable boundaries compared to most of less Americans. You've seen me done,
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you know. Yeah, so I kind of sucked in a little gut
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that I have. I mean, he said, yeah, you guys don't
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even have food in your stores. You know, in my country, everything
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goes labeled with the nutritional content of everything that you buy. And in your
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country you sell you know, pop cut pop corn chips, and you know,
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of course we do. And I didn't know if he's referring to convenience
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stores or simple markets. The conversation you go on real long, but it
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was just a real wake up call to me. So it goes right back
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to what you what you started with about the new gold and Ellen won more
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of comment. And that is unfortunately the Americans have not been taught what I
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was taught, and that is self responsibility. I mean, almost everybody knows
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to eat right or basically how to eat right, and you got to exercise,
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and exercise could be a simple as a walking and and that's a that's
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your own responsibility. But they're much more apt to do the fast food,
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fast fix nature of our society, which is, you know, grab a
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pill that will fix B. I don't want to do the work, and
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that's unfortunate, this we both know. But yeah, those companies will probably
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make a fortune, and especially if it helps people to lose weight, anything
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chemically putting your body like that, I always question it. What the side
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effects might be, but back to you, you know it's so true.
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Hey, at one point, believe it or not, it's fifty pounds heavier
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than I am right now. I was fat, obese, bordering on obesity.
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I was definitely overweight by any definition. And its miserable and I found
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it aging. Really, when you're obese really puts a lot of wear and
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tear on your joints, on everything, inflammation. And you know, we
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talk about money, and we talk about wealth, and we talk about,
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you know, what's going on in the world, but what's going on in
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your own life. Are you healthy or not? You know, I got
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COVID. I thought I was more healthy than I was. COVID proved to
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me that I needed to change my ways. And I have lost another twenty
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pounds since then. And you know, I've always exercised. So you know,
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we have the pillars of health, we have the pillars of financial health.
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The pillars of health are number one healthy, diet, number two,
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exercise, number three sleep adequate sleep, number four stress management and they're all
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interrelated here. What would you say the pillars of financial health are having a
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portion of your wealth in hard assets, in precious metals. What other pillars
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are there, David, I will answer that you're fillers of financial health.
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But before I go there, I just want to remind everyone that's not a
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previous member of the mortgage Report that I've signed off from letter to one and
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report one till present with this statement wishing you health above wealth, comma,
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wisdom beyond knowledge. So I myself from what I've experienced in my own personal
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life, but particularly my family with my dad having a massive car accident being
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a quad allegiate last year. It happened his life and really put the context
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of money versus health and the perspective I'll never overcome. And because you know,
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my dad actually retired very well off due to some investments in back one
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that I pretty much put proposed to him in the Southern phone industry, and
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he did extremely well in the sou Their phone industry. And yet when he
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got paralyzed, I'm sure he would have given up, you know, all
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those all that financial gain to be able to walk, right. So,
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so I just want to get that out there. So what you said,
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you already outlined it. It's it's balance. Nature preaches balance. You too
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much, you get fat, too little, you're too skinny. If you
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exercise too much, you can lower your telemeres. If you exercise the right
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amount, you can keep them long and strong. So there's this balance in
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nature of the right amount, you know, the old adage that moderation in
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all nags. You know, it's not like you can't ever have that chocolate
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cake or that cheesecake or you know, I love cheesecake and I like pie
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some pot but I don't eat it very often, you know, but just
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mean a cat have it. But these people that order pizza three days a
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week, or you know, the bass trained to bat hell. So it's
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it's the adage moderation all things. It's on the financial legs. Yeah,
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what are the three things that are legacy? Well, gold, land,
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and fine art. Now most of us are out of the fine art category
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because when we don't really know how to buy it into. It's probably out
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of most of us middle class, working class people. But those are the
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three of the wealth of the elites. But two of those are accessible to
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any of us really, or any of us that can save. Then that
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is gold, which basically I've brought into precious metals, and land, which
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is unimproved or improved land real estate or commercial real estate, you know,
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residential homes, farm in land, any of that classifies his land. And
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in art I'll just leave out there. But on a financial portfolio, you
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want when I think the late great Harry Brown, it was one of my
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mentors and he came on. So all the permanent portfolio and the permanent portfolio,
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I don't remember the percentage as folks, so forgive me, but I'll
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give you the right idea. So a certain percentage was bonds, a certain
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percentage with stocks, a certain percentage of real estate, a certain percentage was
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precious metals. And there might have been another one like miscellaneous, like if
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you wanted to do private equity or have your own business or whatever. I
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don't recall if that was in there. And so he add the percentages and
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then what he did on an annual basis, so you're not sitting there stressing
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all you know, day, what's the price of goal doing today? And
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oh my god, they took the silver market down again, and all this
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stuff that many of our followers do. You just casually had a nice you
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know, glass of wine or whatever, you know, mid January looking at
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portfolio, and you saw the bonds in your portfolio. Instead of being thirty
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percent of the portfolio, we're now forty percent. You sold off that amount
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until you got the bonds back down to thirty percent. And then if you
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saw your precious metals were down from fifteen percent of your portfolio to eight percent,
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you put that bond money into the precious metals bring it back up to
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fifteen percent. So what you were doing was obviously common sense good money management.
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When things got above their cost in other words, yet a profit,
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you took the profit, not all of them, and thinks so we're undervalue
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allocated money too. So you were selling high and buying low every year.
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And it's used to be on the on the mutual fund. So Terry CrOx
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and actually had the idea. So all have good credit because Jerry was worked
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with Harry and did an excellent job for him, and you could buy them.
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Well, I think it's long gone now, but if you go to
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office on Amazon or not, but goo google Ferment Portfolio by Harry Brown Browne.
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I'm sure there's some used books out there, and I'm not saying you
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should do it exactly, but it's a great way to look at the markets.
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And I'm not a big bond guy. Never owned a bond in my
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life outside of savings bond that we're required to buy at work at one point
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in my career. But you know, stocks, I'm not against them.
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Real estate, I'm not against high real estate. So it's balanced again.
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And I think you have every category so well you should really over diversify or
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whatever at certain times and you go back to what I outline of the purer
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portfolio, and the medals have been down for so long, and you know,
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bonds were the best thing could be in from nineteen eighty to forty years.
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They've peaked. I wouldn't touch upon now if you pay me to be
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in them, but you know, for forty years it was really one of
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the best places to be. So let's say we're in that mindset for those
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thirty or forty years, and you would be selling off gains in your bonds
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the whole way and putting it into precious metals the last twelve years or so
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and others. I mean, stock market goes up and down too, But
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I think that's my best answer. I don't get that question often, and
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most people wouldn't have an answer like mine because they're not as old as I
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am, beasant as I am same here, I've done as many investments as
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I have. But that's the answer. There's actually a play I looked it
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up while you were talking, called the Lazy Portfolio ETF, and they have
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what's called the Harry Brown Permanent Portfolio. Now, obviously there's no real estate
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in it, but they could have been rates in there too, right,
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But this is strictly a stock based portfolio. So twenty five percent gold,
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twenty five percent US large cap stocks, and then fifty percent fixed income,
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of which half is TLT and then half is a short term And they said
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that it's it's had a net return of about six and a half percent per
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year compounded over like twenty five years. But they don't have real estate in
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there, obviously, And you know the fact is that ETF really aren't a
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good analog for what he was trying to get at because for commodities, they
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just put gold in there, and obviously if you had certain commodities, you
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know you were going to do better than what gold did because they have done
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well over time. Yeah, so yeah, again, I don't remember the
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exact same might not have had real estate, and the original one, I
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really don't know. I know he was not a big real estate guy.
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I mean that's from the other books I've read by him, and also being
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lucky enough to spend some one on one time with him later in his life.
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I was very honored to be able to see one of my heroes and
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you know, have dinner with him and that type of thing. So no,
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I get it, But whether you really that shows though, is a
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simple strategy like that could give the almost seven percent of compound, aren't they?
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And that's beat the inflation rate for quite a while. It's probably a
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little less than the inflation rate is right now. But if it's been twenty
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five years where we had basically no inflation, we're any of the experts.
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I don't agree that true inflection rache as low as the Yeah, right,
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we both agree on that. Just to make clarity, Wait a minute,
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David, you said you didn't trust your placer, right, Yeah, I
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don't. I don't trust much of anything that was for the federal government are
18:18
most state governments. But regardless, the idea is sound and I'm glad you
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looked it up. Thanks, Kurt. Yeah, so so another old saw
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and I knew you knew this when we talked about it before, is that
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one ounce should buy a very fine men's suit. One ounce of gold And
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in fact, now you know, yeah, you could buy suits Italian super
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designers like Kittans for fourteen thousand dollars new, but a good suit really probably
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a thousand, maybe fifteen hundred. Get a really good men's suit. You
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go to the outlet, probably get it for seven to fifty. So golden
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is really pulled ahead of what it used to be as far as buying one
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ounce buying a fine men's suit, Well that could be true. I mean,
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I don't look at one data point. I'm too you know, studied
19:11
as an engineer, you'd want to take a database of several things, like
19:17
you know, the Hamburg or index and whatever. I don't know whether our
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barney costs. I've never owned one. Maybe they're two thousand. I was
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going to say two thousands. Probably about it right, But regardless, the
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idea is the same. It preserves your well. And in the suit category,
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maybe you'll value I'm not arguing with you. But in the food category
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maybe under value. You know, we don't know, but that's I like
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to take a broad base. But the suit. Analogy is good because people
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can relate to and so again no argument. But I would say what that
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gold is very undervalued relative the money because if you look at what's the paper
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price of gold is a very easy equation. I put it out when my
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first Internet articles is still floating out there and cyberspased somewhere, called the engineering
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the price of Gold. Then you take what the Austrians call base money or
20:06
true money supply, which is M zero. So that's the amount of paper.
20:10
So that's you put that on an numerator. Then you can take the
20:12
amount of gold and you divide it. That's the denominator. And if you
20:18
do that division problem, you come out with fourteen thousand dollars announces, which
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is the high price that you just match. So that's a two thousand now.
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So from that metric, it's seven times under value. And the reason
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I say that is you go back into history, you'll see where that metric
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worked. In other words, as Mike Maloney says, gold catches up and
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does a financial accounting for all the bad printing that's gone on for years.
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Yeah, I did in nineteen eighty. It can do that same map.
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It's really an arithmetic edition. If you do that in nineteen eighty, what
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you'll find was that the paper price of gold was four hundred dollars announce.
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Then it peaked at eight fifty in the spot mark at January twenty first,
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nineteen eighty, which is over double the theoretical true gold price. And we
21:07
could have gone back on a gold standard. So that was nine years from
21:10
the time Nixon close to the gold window, and you would have been able
21:14
to peg the price of the golden let's say eight hundred, and been well
21:18
above the requirement for a paper price of gold. You would add twice as
21:23
much. You can think of it in two one of you think of it
21:27
several ways, mainly say well, we have prices, must goals. We
21:30
need to meet our obligations because really four hundred is the paper price of gold
21:37
and we're pegging at an eight hundred. Or you could say, you know,
21:41
we can inflate a lot more paper until we get into trouble. We
21:44
could double the money supply of still cover ourselves in gold. So that didn't
21:49
happen. Obviously. Yes, it was a one day event, but gold
21:53
hung in there pretty well. I remember selling I was gonna say a lot
21:57
of mine. I'd have that much, but that was in the futures market.
22:00
I did well, and and I had physical goal of also and I
22:04
sold some of that physical around the seven hundred dollar mark. But at that
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time wasn't like I had to do it like the day after the peak.
22:11
There were months there where it was floating into seven hundred. Silver is a
22:15
different story, but silver was claw bared. I think the commodity exchange feared
22:22
silver far more than the third because when the hunts really had them by the
22:27
you know, add them, basically, they didn't know what to do.
22:30
They panic, they hadn't panic. They all the rules crashed it they So
22:37
you know, one thing that we've seen, though, is that our sector
22:41
that you and I follow, intimately involved in, the precious metals miners,
22:45
are in the dumps here. I mean the major is the medium ones,
22:52
Okay, they're doing all right, but the others are the juniors are just
22:59
they're a world of pain. That's the worst it's been to my knowledge.
23:03
I mean, there's a metric you can look at. There's a barren gold
23:07
index, which hasn't been around all that long. But if you look at
23:11
the discrepancy of the change between the price of the metal and the price of
23:15
mining shares. They've never had this big a gap before, which really spells
23:19
opportunity. And it's of course disheartening to me because that's basically the majority of
23:25
what I do. Of Course, I look out ahead. I looked out
23:27
ahead on this green Revolution thing, and will be on an interview later today.
23:32
I'll critical metal minerals and I don't know what the guy expects, but
23:34
you know me, I mean, and I am independent. I don't work
23:37
for publishing house, but regardless, it's a ruse. But anyway, I
23:41
digress to come back. Yeah, I'm concerned. You know, there's just
23:45
these things just don't add up. Carry Yeah, they certainly don't. So
23:51
looking ahead as much as we can, for whatever it's worth, how do
23:56
you see the situation unfolding? I mean, I heard about the bricks and
24:00
the so called goldback currency, but you got like failing economies trying to do
24:07
a synergistic play that somehow the sum of all their currencies is going to be
24:12
worth more than the individual currencies themselves. It seems destined to failure. Well,
24:18
it's sorry. This having massive problems because the productive capacity of trying at
24:25
this point is as too much capacity, there's enough demand. So and they
24:33
have a huge depth problems in thirty percent of their cots built on real estate,
24:37
and the big real estate that firms are blowing up, and so they're
24:41
really in a very very precarious situation. The banking sector hasn't reflected the amount
24:48
of pain that's in the real estate sector, but it will. So you
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know, if you're going to base your bricks on you know, all these
24:56
countries that recently joined at of course, Brazil, Russia, India, China
25:00
and South Africa and one of your stalwarts, China, which is the second
25:04
largest economy in the world, going down to tubes, how's that going to
25:07
work. It's not not going to work. Now. The part that does
25:11
work, it's interexchange between their own currencies. So you can trade resilient currency
25:18
for Chinese currency, Chinese currency for Russian rubles, Russian rubles for South African
25:22
rand, North African rand for you know whatever, pasos, and that's fine,
25:26
and that alleviates them having to go through the dollar, which is good
25:30
for those countries. The problem is that even though it's a unified currency,
25:37
it's just like the euro because they have different cultures, have different work ethics,
25:41
they have different holidays, they have different productive capacities. And because of
25:45
that, you are let's say, at Greece in the Euro and you're Germany
25:51
and the Euro. Who's getting a better deal. Well, yeah, you
25:55
can pick about it, but they're not the same. And that's the problem.
25:59
So you got problem. Got a country that let's say, uses their
26:03
paso to buy your rubles, and the production capacity of the paso is not
26:11
the same as the ruble, then how valid is you know? The reason
26:18
that the US dollar is the best shirt in the hamper as this oppression is
26:23
because all these other countries are inflating faster. We're inflating like like hell,
26:30
won't have it. But when you consider what Zibabwe did with their inflation compared
26:34
to the dollars, dollars are real key or the lira, you know,
26:40
Turkish lira or whatever. So and is that true, David, In every
26:45
case, No it's not. But that's the way the index reacts is that
26:48
these other currencies are devaluing faster than the dollar, and because of that fact,
26:56
the dollar looks better than the rest of them, not because of there
27:00
destroying the dollars just destroying at a lower rate. And of course the main
27:04
reason, as we all know, all they should be said is because we
27:07
do have the luxury of being the reserve currency just being diminished by the bricks.
27:12
But the bricks currency taking over, it's not going to happen, at
27:17
least not for a long long time in my view. And I'll change my
27:22
mind I get better data or something appears that I'd missed. But these dollar
27:26
debts are that the dollars are dominated. So if you're an Indonesia or you
27:33
know, in each country that has dollar nominated debt, you've got to take
27:37
those ruples or those pasos or whatever your currency is converting the dollars to pay
27:44
off the dollar debt. Yeah, I pay your dollar debt off with the
27:47
ricks currency. Can't be done. Yeah yeah, and yeah, like in
27:52
the long run, maybe it'll have some effect. But yeah, we always
27:56
say now that it's the dollar is the best looking house in Baltimore, Right,
28:02
I like that one. So all right, So Morgan Report dot com
28:08
that's where we find you these days. Yeah, I'm going to put out
28:15
a special for my expires. I'm going to let them have a free report
28:19
basically, the cost of the report is the cost of a one hour consultation.
28:23
Anyone that resigns, I'm going to give them a one hour consultation,
28:27
one on one with me, not one of my staff. And I do
28:30
that for a couple of reasons. One, I want to build that report,
28:33
and secondly, I want to make sure to get started right with the
28:37
right equities, because you know, everyone would love to get rich in the
28:41
juniors, but it's the wrong time of the season to be heavily invested in
28:45
the juniors. I want to be in the top tiers, in the mid
28:47
tiers, you want to be the junior producers as your more specative for part
28:51
of your portfolio. And I want to get everyone started correctly. So I'm
28:55
going to make that offer here with them and probably by the end of this
28:56
month, probably rather thirty days. Well that's accomplished, then we'll probably go
29:02
to the general public and I'll do not quite the same because people are loyal
29:06
to me. I'm more loyal to put something along the lines of a half
29:08
hour consultation, and you could say a lot. So trying to give back
29:12
as much as I can, I still have to keep this business afloat.
29:15
There's a lot of people. Yeah, they're liable. Keep the lights on,
29:19
not just about me and sure that's it. So thank you for letting
29:23
me get that into Curry. Hey my pleasure. Well, hey, you
29:26
got a question for David myself? Email me k l at Terry LUTs dot
29:30
com. Hey, you'll find a link to david site in the show notes
29:33
to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Just click through and you'll
29:38
get to them. While you're there, sign up for a free newsletter David
29:42
always a pleasure. Thanks so much for coming by. We'll talk to you
29:45
getting real soon. Great cry, Thank you, thanks for listening to carry
29:49
Lets's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
29:56
go to Financial Survival Network dot com, financials or vival Network now more
30:02
than ever m