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Mark interviews John Carney, editor at Breitbart Business News. · The Mark Simone Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Mister New York marsimone on wo Well, bring you to
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: the smartest people around now, Breitbart Business Digest.
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: You got to read this, you got to subscribe to this.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: It's very important. Bright Bart Business Digest. The President reads it.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, the smartest people, Larry Kudlow is the first
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: thing they read every day. Bright Bart Business Digest. Go
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: to Breitbart and where it says newsletters, sign up for
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: the Breitbart Business Digest. It's free. It'll come right to
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: your email, but sign up for it at Breitbart dot com.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: And the editor of the Business Digest is the brilliant
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: John Karney, and he's with us right now. John Carney,
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: how you doing.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Thanks for having me Mark, and yeah, thanks for reading
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Business Digect.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: Well, thanks for doing it. It's great stuff. Now, the
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: jobs numbers today was supposed to be up fifty thousand.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: It's way down and they even revised down previous report.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: What happened.
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  Speaker 3: It is a very bad jobs report. There's probably a
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: few non economic factors going on. Remember how harsh February
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: was weatherwise, and we had days where, like you know,
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: with blizzards in New York. There was days where it
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: was zero degrees less than zero degrees. You're not hiring
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: and you're not looking for a job in that kind
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  Speaker 3: of weather, So that was probably contributed to part of it.
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  Speaker 3: But look, the forecasts were supposedly taking that into account.
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  Speaker 3: It's not like the people who said we were going
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: to get fifty thousand jobs didn't know it was cold
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  Speaker 3: in February.
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  Speaker 4: So this is a lot worse.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: There was also has our health had a big strike
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  Speaker 3: the Department of Labor, so that took out a lot
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  Speaker 3: of the healthcare jobs. But this is a weak number.
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: Some of it is probably AI driven.
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  Speaker 3: We saw business and professional services and information those are
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: two areas very exposed to you know, people losing their
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  Speaker 3: jobs to AI. Those both contracted. I think if you
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: take a three month average, so we added a lot
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: of jobs in January, but.
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  Speaker 4: December got revised.
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  Speaker 3: Down to a from a gain of forty eight thousand
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  Speaker 3: to a loss, so we are that took out.
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  Speaker 4: A lot of jobs.
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  Speaker 3: We are averaging only about six thousand jobs a month
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  Speaker 3: over the last three months, and if you take the
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: six month average, we've lost one thousand jobs a month.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: That's a pretty weak labor market. The Federal Reserve should
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: look at that and say you know, there's some cause
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: for concern here. We should be prepared to cut rates
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: if we need to. However, they're also going to see
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: stuff like oil prices rising very rapidly and get nervous
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: that that could lead to uh, lead people to expect
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: more inflation and therefore push inflation up.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, but overall the economy is healthy. So yes, you
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  Speaker 2: must be very surprised.
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  Speaker 3: Absolutely, No, the economy is growing very quickly. We are.
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  Speaker 3: Productivity has been you know, a huge winner, and that
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  Speaker 3: actually may be part of the story here. We're the
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: output per our work of us workers has been rising
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: at a very rapid level. One of the things that
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  Speaker 3: means is that businesses actually don't need to hire many
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  Speaker 3: people because when you can get you know, three or
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: four percent more out of your worker than you were
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: you know, a year ago, then you you're hiring needs
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: just don't go up as much. It's actually probably both
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: because unemployment is very low and we and we're a
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: lot of people are retiring and we're deporting a lot
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: of the low wage workers who were here illegally. Businesses
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  Speaker 3: are actually trying to figure out how to do more
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  Speaker 3: with fewer people. And so the although you know. Yes,
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  Speaker 3: I'm not going to try to say that ninety two
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: thousand jobs is not a bad number, but I will
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  Speaker 3: say it's not as bad as it looks, in part.
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  Speaker 4: Because businesses are finding ways.
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  Speaker 3: To grow without trying to hire people, and unemployment is
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  Speaker 3: very low. Four point four percent is a very low number,
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  Speaker 3: So even though we're not hiring people, there's not a
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  Speaker 3: lot of people without jobs right now.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, why are they revising earlier reports? I thought we
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  Speaker 2: fixed that problem.
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  Speaker 3: Will never fix that problem, and it's going to stay
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: a problem. One of the things that's happened in recent
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  Speaker 3: years is actually the initial response rate. So you know
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: they do these things. It's it's actually very strange. You
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: know that we still do it this way, but it's
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  Speaker 3: basically they send out surveys to businesses and say how
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  Speaker 3: many people work for you? And the response rate from
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  Speaker 3: those surveys has gone way down, at least the initial
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: response rate, So businesses are taking longer to report to
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  Speaker 3: the government they're payrolls. That means that they get in
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  Speaker 3: later data, which means they have to revise the prior numbers,
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  Speaker 3: and you get these wild revisions and springs. The good
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  Speaker 3: news is the January number.
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  Speaker 4: Which was really good actually wasn't revised very much.
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  Speaker 3: It came in at one hundred and thirty thousand. That
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  Speaker 3: was you know, the mind blowing January hiring spree. We
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: saw that got revised down to one hundred and twenty
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  Speaker 3: six thousand, So still really really good numbers. The bad
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  Speaker 3: news is maybe that gets revised again. I'd also you know,
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  Speaker 3: warned this one, this ninety two thousand, that could get revised,
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  Speaker 3: and they don't just get revised down, they get revised up.
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  Speaker 3: So this number might not be as bad, or maybe
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  Speaker 3: it's much worse. I hate to like say you can't
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  Speaker 3: rely on the numbers, but that's the way it is.
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  Speaker 2: Why are we sending out surveys. It's twenty twenty six.
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  Speaker 2: Why can't you digitally see exactly who's working.
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  Speaker 3: Where you know you can? And there are people who
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: are trying to do that better. Look, I'll tell you
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  Speaker 3: like a lot of the big banks, they get a
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  Speaker 3: lot of payroll data themselves because they.
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  Speaker 4: Have booth you know, they're the banks for the businesses.
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  Speaker 3: So they and they and they're the banks for the people.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: They look at their own internal data.
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  Speaker 4: You have ADP.
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  Speaker 3: They put out their own reports they're a big payroll
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  Speaker 3: process or the government could probably update it. From what
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  Speaker 3: I understand, actually, some of the services are actually still
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: received by facts, so literally, you know, like you have
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: a fact come in and people are reading it. That
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  Speaker 3: sounds ridiculous and it is. I guess it's better than
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: people having to mail them in, but it is still
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: it's not being done very efficiently.
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  Speaker 2: Right, Wow, Hey John Carney brightbart business dies. If you
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: watch the fake news, all you hear about is oil prices,
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: gas prices. It's obviously it's a spike due to the war.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: But correct, it's just a spike. They will come down.
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  Speaker 2: Won't take these prices?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, they will come down. The real question and the
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: real question is how long they stay elevated if oil
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  Speaker 3: prices go up. Right now, they're going up a lot.
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  Speaker 3: This morning, I saw brent krude, which is like the
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  Speaker 3: international standard, was up above ninety one dollars a barrel.
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  Speaker 3: That's a lot. It's less than what we saw back
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  Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two. I mean, we saw oil get
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  Speaker 3: up to one hundred and fifty dollars a barrel under
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  Speaker 3: Biden was and that's what led to gas prices going
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  Speaker 3: sky high.
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  Speaker 4: We will see.
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  Speaker 3: Gas prices go up even from a short term oil spike,
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  Speaker 3: but it really doesn't start to weigh on the economy
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  Speaker 3: unless it stays up there.
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  Speaker 4: So as long as the Trump administration.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: In the US military can get that golf that straight
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: of her moves open so that Persian golf oil can
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  Speaker 3: come through, which is about twenty percent of the world's
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  Speaker 3: oil supply. As long as that reopens, we'll see this
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  Speaker 3: come down. It's probably it's almost certainly not going to
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: be a permanent increase in the price of oil. It
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: should come down, but it's not clear right right now.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump says he wants to keep going until he
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: gets an unconditional surrender from Iran. Iran still has missiles
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  Speaker 3: that they can launch at tankers, but straight try to
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  Speaker 3: get through this bottleneck between the Persian golf and the
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  Speaker 3: rest of the world. So you know, it could last
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: a while right now. I think one of the reasons
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  Speaker 3: the prices are up so much today is because people
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  Speaker 3: are worried that maybe the conflict doesn't get resolved quickly.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, hey what about Wall Street? They I mean, you
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  Speaker 2: fire one shot in they panic? What is this panic
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  Speaker 2: at waste?
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, look, we've seen this, I think for a year.
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  Speaker 3: Every time something bad happens, Wall Street panics, right, So
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: if Trump announces tariffs that are higher than they expected,
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: you get this sell off. The people who really make
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: money on Wall Street these days are the people who
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: buy into the selloffs because they reverse. You know, if
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: you've timed it back to the to that Trump to
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: the Trump Liberation Day tariff announcement, stocks are up close
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  Speaker 3: to thirty percent of that.
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  Speaker 4: So you know, the smart guys.
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  Speaker 3: Made a lot of money by buying into the panics,
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  Speaker 3: and we'll probably see that again. People, you know, the
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  Speaker 3: Dow goes down, people smart money will come in and
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: buy that said like, look, the stocks aren't even down
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  Speaker 3: that much. I would have thought with oil up at
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: you know, above ninety dollars, that we've seen an even
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: bigger panic. I think people are figuring out that this
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: is probably not going to be an economic catastrophe even
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: with these bad jobs numbers. Again, that could change though,
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: if it does seem like we're going to be in
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  Speaker 3: a long, drun out war, or that Iran's offensive capabilities
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: in the Persian Gulf are stronger than people thought.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: Wow, well, John Carney, great stuff. I urge everybody to
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: sign up. You're gonna love it. Read it every day.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Bright Bart Business Digest. Just go to Breitbart dot com
• 10:31
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• 10:34
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• 10:36
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• 10:40
  Speaker 2: and you'll love it. John Carney, great stuff, Thanks for
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: being with us, Thanks for having me, Mark, I take care. Hey,
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