Latest / Saving the World From Bad Ideas / Bad Idea #34 “Nuclear? No Thanks!" With Bryony Worthington
Transcript
- 0:00I think I'm in favour of all nukes, actually.
- 0:02I don't have a favorite. I think once they're built and
- 0:04they're operating you, you're never going to regret it, right?
- 0:07They're just so reliable and they're so useful in what they
- 0:10produce because they don't just produce power at huge volumes,
- 0:14they produce heat. And increasingly when we get
- 0:17through this decarbonisation journey, we're going to have to
- 0:20deal with heat. And heat isn't easy because
- 0:22they've maxed everything out to the absolute Max.
- 0:23They couldn't shave off the impurities, so they rolled it
- 0:26anyway. And then famously the inspectors
- 0:28came around and went, hang on a SEC, the impurities level in
- 0:30this casing is slightly higher. Why is that?
- 0:32They went, oh, well, you know, we didn't do the normal shaving.
- 0:35It doesn't, it doesn't materially affect the steel.
- 0:38But in the world of nuclear, everything is micromanaged
- 0:41within an inch of it's life. And that that failure to take
- 0:44into account the fact that you need to take out the impurities
- 0:46by cutting the cutting the steel meant they had to start again.
- 0:50Kami, Can you imagine having to then do that whole industrial
- 0:53process one more time? Course it adds costs.
- 0:55It's completely ludicrous. Welcome to saving the world from
- 0:59bad ideas. I'm Mark Linus and I've had a
- 1:02few bad ideas in my time. I used to go out in the night
- 1:05time to destroy GMO crops and I also posed nuclear power.
- 1:08But then when I looked at the science I found I got it wrong.
- 1:11Oops. I've learned the hard way that
- 1:13none of us are right all the time.
- 1:15So now I'm here to challenge the assumptions that we all too
- 1:17often take for granted because the future depends on us getting
- 1:21it right. My guest today is Briony
- 1:23Worthington, AKA the Baroness Worthington of Briony.
- 1:27Where are you, Baroness of again?
- 1:29Well, Cambridge, but I don't use that because there's only been 1
- 1:32Worthington, so I'm the Baroness Worthington, so you don't need
- 1:36the of bit. Oh, I don't need.
- 1:38Oh, OK. I was thinking there was some
- 1:40town in England they were building a statue of you, but
- 1:43that's good. Yeah, well, they might do one
- 1:46day because you're the originator of the UK's Climate
- 1:49Act, which came about from a campaign that you worked on at
- 1:53Friends of the Earth when you were there and then later when
- 1:55you worked for the government. And you're now even more
- 1:58famously Co host with Michael Lebrike, who we've had on as a
- 2:01guest here of the Cleaning Up podcast.
- 2:03So welcome to saving and well from bad ideas.
- 2:06Thank you Mark here. Delight to be with.
- 2:09You. Well, it's even more of a
- 2:11delight to have you. And now it's safe to say that
- 2:14you're a long time enthusiast for nuclear power.
- 2:17And I thought since this is the season finale, we could go all
- 2:22in our nuclear and contest the bad idea that nuclear is not
- 2:26relevant, it's too expensive, it's not going to happen.
- 2:28The future is going to be all renewables.
- 2:30So if I be the kind of devil's advocate of that side, you've
- 2:34got an hour to convince me that nuclear is still in the game and
- 2:37still important. So are you up for that?
- 2:39Yeah, definitely. Yep.
- 2:41And maybe I'll start with the the renewables revolution, which
- 2:45is something that ember, you know, which is a think tank that
- 2:47you Co founded, they're calling the Electrotech revolution,
- 2:51which is a phrase I rather like. Solar and batteries are now
- 2:53growing so fast that, you know, it's pretty much exponential
- 2:57globally. They're on the sort of steep
- 2:59upward part of the S curve. And I just looked at the latest
- 3:02stats and solar was, I think it's grown by, it's been
- 3:07doubling every three years. It's the fastest growing
- 3:09electricity source in history. So when the Paris agreement was
- 3:12signed back in 2015, it was 1% of global electricity.
- 3:15And now in the first half of 2025, it's getting up to about 9
- 3:19percent, 8.8% of the last last count.
- 3:22And you know, that's only one part of the story.
- 3:24Perhaps just as significant as that batteries are now taking
- 3:27off 2 which combined with solar makes almost you know, solar
- 3:31plus batteries as as as base load, just like nuclear famously
- 3:34is and Ember calls batteries silos for sunshine, which is
- 3:38rather lovely. The latest figures show 160 GW
- 3:41hours of new battery storage last year and prices have fallen
- 3:44tenfold over the last seven years.
- 3:46So I'm beginning to sound a bit breathless with all of this but
- 3:48you know, are you on board with the Electrotech revolution?
- 3:51Do you think it's all as significant as it sounds?
- 3:53I. Mean, yeah, firstly, I should
- 3:54say I completely love what's happened in the the kind of take
- 3:58up of clean electricity. It's yeah, it is kind of
- 4:01breathtaking to watch. And Ember, you know, I've had a
- 4:05sort of front seat in terms of watching that data come through
- 4:08and the narratives emerge. I'm not in any way seeking to
- 4:11sort of suggest that this is, is going to be slowed down or
- 4:14wanting it to slow down. But S curves have a habit of, of
- 4:17having, you know, the top part of the S curve is when it
- 4:19flattens. And famously, the IEA was always
- 4:22predicting there'd be steep increase and then the flattening
- 4:24off and they got it all wrong. But it's not, it's not without
- 4:28potential to slow down. And the reason I say that is
- 4:30because if you look into the data, that's what Ember does.
- 4:34A large part of this story tracks back to China and the
- 4:37extraordinary pace at which China's been installing wind and
- 4:40solar, which has meant that it's now caught up and overtaken
- 4:43other sources of electricity provision.
- 4:45But it is a China story. And if China runs out of room,
- 4:49runs out of, I mean, metaphorical room for renewables
- 4:52or decides for other reasons to slow down you, then you could
- 4:55see that S start to flatten faster than you would want.
- 4:58Now, China's also exporting solar panels and batteries to
- 5:02the rest of the world, but there is no bigger market than China's
- 5:04own internal market. And and they also have the speed
- 5:07with which to move that other countries really don't have.
- 5:10So yeah, it's a very much a China story and what keeps me
- 5:14focus on other sources of technologies because China's not
- 5:17just doing wind, solar and batteries, it's all staying
- 5:19nuclear. It's also doing geothermal.
- 5:21It's also doing, you name it, it's doing it.
- 5:23And and that's what makes me kind of feel like if you
- 5:27understand China's energy demand needs and it's not just about
- 5:31electricity, it's also about heat, then you end up looking at
- 5:34nuclear again, thinking actually there is a really important role
- 5:37for it to play here. Your question was, do I think
- 5:40that the electrotech is as exciting as it as it seems to
- 5:43be. And I the answer to that is yes.
- 5:45I'm just a little bit perhaps sanguine about the
- 5:48breathlessness of this. All we need is these three
- 5:50technologies. I don't.
- 5:51I don't really subscribe to that.
- 5:53You've just been to China, so we'll come back to that and then
- 5:56talk in more detail about, about that because that really is the,
- 5:59the, you know, the, the centre of this massive electrotech
- 6:03revolution. But the issue seems to be cost
- 6:05curves, right? Solar, wind and batteries.
- 6:07They've they've come down and that's due to modularity and
- 6:11learning. And your your Co host Michael
- 6:13Liebreich always waxes lyrical about this.
- 6:15But staying with the big picture here, no one's seeing downward
- 6:18cost curves for nuclear, are they?
- 6:20Because, I guess because they're not actually getting built
- 6:23anywhere. Well, I mean, they are getting
- 6:25built places and they were built in places, right?
- 6:28So the, I suppose just to tell the story of nuclear then that,
- 6:30you know, it wasn't technology that was originally developed
- 6:33for weapons. We all know that.
- 6:35But it was quickly also understood that it could, could,
- 6:37could be commercialized for generating electricity and the
- 6:41famous phrase of, you know, too cheap to meter.
- 6:43And there was this kind of period of rapid development.
- 6:45It's particularly driven by the US and by the UK and Europe, but
- 6:49also latterly, yeah, now importantly being picked up by
- 6:53Asia and China. But the, the story of how was
- 6:56done that, you know, got dominated by the choice of
- 6:58technology. And we chose the pressurised
- 7:00water reactor because of that's where it originated out from,
- 7:03the sort of defence and and manufacturing of weapons.
- 7:06And the PWR, you know, hasn't shown itself to be very
- 7:10effective at coming down the cost curve.
- 7:12The French famously built out a huge number of them in a very
- 7:15rapid space of time. This is in the 80s during the
- 7:18oil shock period where just to get off a dependency on oil,
- 7:22France decided to go nuclear. And the MESMA plan saw a huge
- 7:25build out of nuclear in a very rapid space of time.
- 7:28So, so, so we got to quite a high level of global electricity
- 7:32production through this quite intense phase of build.
- 7:36And you're absolutely right, the S curves didn't show themselves
- 7:38to be as amenable to coming down as, as solar and and wind
- 7:41because they're much more modular.
- 7:43But there was this period where we didn't stop building.
- 7:46We built one, we carried on, we had this learning phase and then
- 7:49and the French did prove that it could be done in relatively fast
- 7:52and it's but then it stood the test of time.
- 7:54You think about nuclear is you once you've built it, it becomes
- 7:58infrastructure really. And it's there in the background
- 8:01producing heat and power reliably full up to 80 to 90
- 8:06years potentially. So we're starting to see, you
- 8:08know, some of these plants are coming off now because they were
- 8:10built in the 60s and 70s. But we've still got a big number
- 8:13operating around the world and producing not a small amount of
- 8:17electricity. For the longest time, hydro was
- 8:19the biggest source of clean electricity, followed by
- 8:21nuclear. And then the rest of renewables
- 8:23were just trailing, nowhere to be seen on the graph.
- 8:26Now we combine wind and solar, They combine, they're coming up
- 8:29and they produce more electrons, more terawatt hours than the
- 8:32nuclear does. But we forget that nuclear is
- 8:34just there in the background since that period, providing us
- 8:36with a reliable electricity. And over time, of course, it's
- 8:41relatively cheap because if you amortize those capital costs
- 8:44over 80 years per unit today, that's not that expensive.
- 8:49The problem is you've got the big high capital costs upfront
- 8:52that skews the investment case. And you know, that is not an
- 8:55insignificant issue. So I there is, I'm not saying
- 8:58there are no problems, but I think we sometimes treat nuclear
- 9:00a bit unfairly. We equate it all with the French
- 9:03project that's famously 20 years over over delayed and massively
- 9:07over budget. But that was a technology choice
- 9:09and it was a particular build. And we should look at it more in
- 9:13the round of the history of nuclear, which if we hadn't had
- 9:16nuclear, we'd have had a lot dirtier air, there were a lot
- 9:19less clean electrons, we'd have a lot more fossil fuels that
- 9:21were burnt. So I'm glad that we did that
- 9:23phase and I think we're entering a new phase now where nuclear is
- 9:26being done differently. Nicely put and I agree about the
- 9:29past. And also I'm sure we agree that
- 9:31early shutdowns of fossil, sorry, early shutdowns of
- 9:34nuclear make make no sense at all.
- 9:36I guess the question I've still got is whether there will be any
- 9:39more PWR belt, you know, these these pressurized water reactors
- 9:42you were you were talking about. I had as a guest on the show
- 9:45Julia Pike from Sizwell C and I think the numbers was like £38
- 9:50billion for Sizwell C And I think that's just the overnight
- 9:55cost, like just the construction cost.
- 9:56And if you add in financing, it's pushing like 100 if you
- 9:59believe the Financial Times. I mean, you know, you're not
- 10:01going to get many of many more of those things built at that
- 10:04kind of cost, at least not to the extent that we need clean
- 10:08energy for for the future to decarbonize the whole energy
- 10:10system. Yeah, no, there's a whole debate
- 10:12to be had. I'm sure you had it with Julia,
- 10:14the the PWR in Britain story. I don't let's probably not
- 10:17rehearse it here again because I think that is just one lens.
- 10:20And if you sit in London or you sit in Brussels, maybe that's
- 10:22the only thing you see. But if you look a little bit
- 10:24broader, you see that Korea is building nuclear reactors for
- 10:28the Middle East or you see that Brazil has got a reactor and
- 10:31where they actually forged the vessel for that in, in
- 10:34Sheffield, it was a Sheffield Steel manufactured there.
- 10:37There are things projects going on.
- 10:38China, as you've mentioned, is building 1 of everything and is
- 10:41testing out which one it thinks it can scale right now.
- 10:44And it's, you know, it's the one that's driving nuclear up still,
- 10:47whereas other parts of the world are shutting them down.
- 10:50So it seems like it's static and it seems like it's got some very
- 10:53high profile problems. But I think that's a
- 10:56simplification of where we are and we can come on to talk about
- 10:59this sort of now proliferation of different types of nuclear,
- 11:02which I think opens up some elements of modularity.
- 11:06I'm not saying it's ever going to be as quick as a as a
- 11:08silicon's solar wafer in terms of its its ability to innovate
- 11:13and come down the cost curve, but it certainly can't get any
- 11:16worse, right? So if you do modular and build
- 11:19more of them then we will get cost learnings.
- 11:22You can't get any worse. You heard it here first.
- 11:23I mean, that's the best best argument.
- 11:25And you can't get any worse, can't get any worse.
- 11:27And Flamerville, I think is fair to say you could be a problem
- 11:29with this tribute. Clear as the one that you peg
- 11:32yourself as not wanting to copy, basically.
- 11:35For those that don't know, Flamerville is the EPR, the
- 11:37European Pressurised Reactor that that they were building in
- 11:40France. I don't even know.
- 11:41I think it's up and running now or maybe they've already had
- 11:43some, some, some issues, but there is one, there is one up
- 11:46and running at Old Kiluoto in, in Finland, which I've actually
- 11:49been to. And I think they, they built,
- 11:52built some in China as well. And in China they're also
- 11:54building, is it called the Hua long one?
- 11:56I'm not sure if I'm pronouncing that right, but there's a big,
- 11:59you know, so still building the big one, GW pressurized water
- 12:02reactors. So they seem to be able to do
- 12:03it. And do you know, I mean you,
- 12:05you're in China. Do you know anything about their
- 12:07their cost curves and, and and what what the latest looking is
- 12:10on that? Super hard right to get cost
- 12:13data out of China. The per MW hour price curves, a
- 12:16cost that they're quoting, I really wouldn't know.
- 12:19I would. I don't know them.
- 12:20So sorry. I'm much more interested in the
- 12:22politics of this and the narrative as well that we tell
- 12:26ourselves about success. And I think it's very easy to
- 12:30pick, to cherry pick really bad examples and say that was
- 12:32terrible. I mean, fundamentally the Eprs
- 12:35got massive right. There was this, there was this
- 12:37period where economies of scale ruled.
- 12:40So the bigger you build the reactor, the more units you get
- 12:43out, the more you can pay back. And I just think somehow the
- 12:47engineers were were sort of pushed to one side and the
- 12:49economists got hold of it and they maxed it out the absolute
- 12:53Max. So these things that you, you
- 12:54know, you visited one, they're like cathedrals in their scale.
- 12:58If you see a normal EPR, you know, I think it's a, is it each
- 13:02turbine is, is, you know, 1 is it .800 megawatts per turbine
- 13:06and they add 2 together to get 1.6.
- 13:08They doubled it. So you now have 1.6 per turbine
- 13:11times 2 = 3.2 gig. And that's an insane, an insane
- 13:16and undertaking really. It's like maxing out the
- 13:19engineering to its very, very limits.
- 13:21And what we saw with Framerville was, you know, that just simple
- 13:24stuff like when they rolled out the steel, when the steel was
- 13:26cast, you're supposed to roll and then you take off the edges
- 13:30of the of the steel roll because that's where the impurities
- 13:32gather. But because they've maxed
- 13:34everything out to the absolute Max, they couldn't shave off the
- 13:36impurities. So they rolled it anyway.
- 13:38And then famously, the inspectors came around and went,
- 13:41hang on a SEC, the impurity level in this casing is slightly
- 13:44higher. Why is that?
- 13:45They went, Oh, well, you know, we didn't do the normal shaving.
- 13:47It doesn't it doesn't materially affect the steel.
- 13:50But in the world of nuclear, everything is micromanaged
- 13:53within an inch of its life. And that that failure to take
- 13:56into account the fact that you need to take out the impurities
- 13:58by cutting the cutting the steel meant they had to start again.
- 14:02Cami, Can you imagine having to then do that whole industrial
- 14:05process one more time? Of course it adds costs.
- 14:07It's completely ludicrous. I just think these, these big,
- 14:11big, big projects are just a bit, probably it's too, you
- 14:14know, too much hubris and we perhaps need to stick to what we
- 14:17knew, which was the .8 MW, you know, the .8 gigawatts units.
- 14:21We'd built a number of them. It worked.
- 14:22Why? Why did we not just keep doing
- 14:24that? Well, I mean, these enormous
- 14:26projects, it's like the opposite of modular, right?
- 14:29And yeah, so the world is pushing towards in the nuclear
- 14:33renaissance, which is being being hyped a lot, small modular
- 14:36reactors, SMRS. So the M is M is modular, you
- 14:40know, is, is that something you see as being the next big thing
- 14:44or is it just another hype cycle?
- 14:45I don't know. I mean, I've, I think I'm in
- 14:48favour of all nukes actually. I don't have a favorite, I
- 14:51think. I think once they're built and
- 14:52they're operating you, you're never going to regret it, right?
- 14:55They're just so reliable and they're so useful in what they
- 14:59produce. And because they don't just
- 15:00produce power at huge volumes, they produce heat.
- 15:05And increasingly when we get through this decarbonisation
- 15:08journey, we're going to have to deal with heat.
- 15:10And heat isn't easy. It's, it's something that solar
- 15:13and wind and batteries don't really lend themselves to from
- 15:16a, just a pure kind of energy conversion basis.
- 15:19And if you've got something that's producing large amounts
- 15:21of heat, that's going to also be an asset.
- 15:24So I, I'm, I think the 500 MW is fine.
- 15:27Like, I don't know, I don't think we need to go down to
- 15:30micro mini nukes in everyone's backyard.
- 15:32I don't think that will lend itself to economies of scale.
- 15:36And I I don't know what's wrong with the 500 MW size because
- 15:40that's the one that fits in where the coal units currently
- 15:43operate and where the gas units currently operate.
- 15:45So if you're thinking about systems change the thing, if the
- 15:49thing you're replacing is as similar as the thing, you know,
- 15:52if you can match what you're replacing, that's probably a
- 15:54good, good benchmark. But I mean that.
- 15:56But then if someone wants to build hundreds of little ones,
- 16:00stack them all up and that makes sense economically, I don't have
- 16:04an in principle objection to it. I don't think it's the saviour.
- 16:07I think the core of nuclear is just the physics of it, right?
- 16:10That you've got. The nuclear bond is so energy
- 16:13dense, it contains so much energy.
- 16:15When you split that atom, you release an enormous amount of
- 16:18energy in a very small space. And that's the gift.
- 16:21And I think exactly how we configure it and exactly how we
- 16:25commercialize it, that I'm really open to someone making
- 16:28the case for any, any scale beyond this sort of, you know,
- 16:31so that we're going to be using the power of laptops.
- 16:33But the, you know, there's, but actually even there nuclear
- 16:37batteries is another really curious bit of modernity that we
- 16:40skip over. Why is the Mars Rover happily
- 16:43roaming around taking pictures? This is running on a nuclear
- 16:46battery. That's not a fission battery,
- 16:49it's just a nuclear decay. So it's a naturally decaying
- 16:52element that keeps a tiny little wattage running for a long, long
- 16:56time. But that's super useful if
- 16:58you're running a, you know, a mobile unit on, on a foreign
- 17:02planet. So that, so, you know, nuclear
- 17:05is just exciting. And I, and I said, therefore I
- 17:07can't, you know, can't imagine. Well, we won't be exploiting it.
- 17:10Nuclear for Mars, maybe not so much for Earth.
- 17:12We'll have to see. If you don't have a favorite
- 17:15SMR. I mean, there's so many dozens
- 17:16of competing projects out there like, you know, and some, you
- 17:20know, OCLO, which is probably one of the better known ones.
- 17:22I mean, their share price has gone through the roof.
- 17:25They're pretty close to, I think, to Chris Wright, you
- 17:28know, the current energy secretary, right?
- 17:30Closely, he's on the board, isn't he?
- 17:31I think. And in this world, conflicts of
- 17:33interest are no longer a problem, so of course he's still
- 17:36on. The board not for Trump, no.
- 17:38And the I think Sam Altman was who's, you know, the CEO of open
- 17:43AI was also one of the, you know, early, early investors in
- 17:46that. So, you know, you're in the US
- 17:48at the moment. Give us the kind of the American
- 17:51story because it's like that seems to be a bipartisan
- 17:53consensus. It certainly isn't on climate
- 17:56change and there certainly isn't on kind of on renewables, which
- 17:59the the Trump administration is trying to stop and block as fast
- 18:03as possible. But they've they are very pro
- 18:04nuclear. Maybe no one's told them that
- 18:06it's it's low carbon. You know, do you think, is that
- 18:08like a, is that like a bipartisan way through the
- 18:10current impasse? Oh, oh, yeah, absolutely,
- 18:12absolutely. Yeah, there, there is complete
- 18:15agreement that and because this is a country with a lot of
- 18:17nukes, right, the as I'm saying, in the 70s and 80s, right the
- 18:20way up to the 90s, they were building and they were.
- 18:23And so there are lots of people who operate them and they
- 18:25operate them brilliantly. And so there's no kind of,
- 18:27there's no German equivalent of like we must shuttle our nuclear
- 18:31down for political reasons. It just doesn't exist here.
- 18:34And so, yes, the building dried up mainly because of the big
- 18:38discovery of, of shale gas and the cheapness of the cheapness
- 18:41of fossil really that kept that kept them from building more.
- 18:44It just wasn't the economics didn't make sense for them.
- 18:47But now that geopolitics has changed, all fossils run out at
- 18:51some point, right? Even, well, especially the shale
- 18:55gas, actually, there's there'll come a point where it's no
- 18:57longer growing in terms of its capacity or we start to shrink.
- 19:00So what do you do then? Where does your energy
- 19:02independence come from? And yes, they're building solar
- 19:05and wind. And Texas famously is the home
- 19:07of all of these things. But the realization is that
- 19:10nuclear is such a strategically important source of once you've
- 19:14built it and once you've got your fuel supply chains in
- 19:16place, indigenous independent energy source, then there's no
- 19:20way they're not going to do it. And then so yes, there are lots
- 19:22of new actors coming into the place.
- 19:24I mean, you've still got people, big people like GE, who GE for
- 19:29Nova, who are the, you know, the big old industrial builders of
- 19:34note, these engineering companies, they've got their own
- 19:36reactor that they're building now, building the first one in
- 19:38Canada, second one will be in the USI think that's a 300 MW,
- 19:42could call it an SMR, but it's still 300 megawatts, decent
- 19:45size. You mentioned Aqua.
- 19:47I don't know how much of that is nice marketing and, and the
- 19:50reality of that reactor project, I'm not really across it.
- 19:53You've got Kairos based here in California.
- 19:56A lot of smart money says that Kairos is a really sensible and
- 19:59strong endeavour. They're doing their first build
- 20:01now in I think it's in Tennessee or no, it's, it's at the site of
- 20:06one of the big nuclear labs and the Midwest.
- 20:09And then you've got Bill Gates. Of course, he's got his own
- 20:12version as well, the Tara Power. Is it Terra power I get?
- 20:15Confused, I think. I think it either is or was.
- 20:18But yeah, they're actually starting to build, aren't they
- 20:20on on that? The gay story's interesting
- 20:22because he put his smartest people on it and they kind of
- 20:25went through a whole bunch of different nuclear designs.
- 20:27They settled on a kind of travelling wave reactor, which I
- 20:31don't know whether how much this was human intelligence or
- 20:33augmented intelligence, but anyway the computer said this is
- 20:35the one to do. And then it actually hit the
- 20:38reality of politics and regulation and it couldn't be
- 20:40progressed, not even. And then of course, he was going
- 20:43to try and do it in China and it couldn't be done there either.
- 20:45It's just very, very hard to get it through regulatory approval.
- 20:48So so he went back to the drawing board, went through
- 20:50another bunch of designs and came up with the nature and
- 20:52reactor. And that's now, yes, getting
- 20:55built in Wyoming, importantly in Wyoming, where it's an old coal
- 20:59mining state, lots and lots of blue collar jobs and and a kind
- 21:03of pride in coal and energy. And that's so that was
- 21:06symbolically chosen to sort of make this new, this new form of
- 21:09energy kind of politically relevant there.
- 21:11Yeah. So US, there's the stuff is
- 21:14being built, but it's being built quite small, quite slow,
- 21:17you know, meanwhile, China's just throwing them up very fast
- 21:20all over the place in all types of different designs.
- 21:22So yeah, it'll be interesting. And and then of course, because
- 21:25it's the US, the fact that China's doing it is also part of
- 21:27the narrative, right? If we can't have China to
- 21:29dominate the nuclear business, we have to get back in the game.
- 21:33Well, not given that they China dominates pretty much every
- 21:36other business now, all of the critical minerals, all of the
- 21:39batteries or increasingly more of the electric vehicles, solar,
- 21:43of course, wind. And you know, so in terms of
- 21:46the, the new energy economy, it's, it's all about China at
- 21:49the moment. And the US seems to be not just
- 21:52being left behind, but literally exiting the game and leaving,
- 21:55leaving the field open for the Chinese.
- 21:57And maybe, maybe nuclear is the one, the one space that the
- 22:00United States still is interested in having an
- 22:02industrial policy to occupy. But I'm not, I'm not so sure.
- 22:06It seems like it's going to be a long way off before any of these
- 22:09projects actually generate. I mean, at least a minimum of of
- 22:1210 years, probably 15, do you think?
- 22:14Or I'm like, I've been pathetic. Yeah, if you're just waiting for
- 22:18the terrible hours to start to flow, yeah, it's going to take
- 22:20time for them to do the test reactors and then they'll do the
- 22:22first commercial reactors and then they'll scale from there.
- 22:25But you know, as, as we said in the MESMA plan, once you've got
- 22:28a reactor that works and you decide to back it and you just
- 22:30roll through, you can do a lot in a decade, you know, and
- 22:33that's, that's, that's sort of the right timing rate.
- 22:35We've got a decade of wind and solar and batteries will take us
- 22:39through definitely to 2030. And by 2035, I think the nuclear
- 22:43phase build will start to pick up then if you know, that's one
- 22:47scenario and I think it's a credible scenario, but yeah,
- 22:51it's not, it's not today's solution for sure.
- 22:54But another scenario is that the wind solar batteries can do it
- 22:56by themselves. I mean, particularly, I think
- 22:59the issue there is batteries, right?
- 23:00If batteries come down enough in price and to be scaled up
- 23:04sufficiently that you can literally just dump solar into
- 23:07them and they can, you know, run pretty much a space load 24/7
- 23:12even with some seasonal storage, then it's over for nuclear,
- 23:15right? I mean, if that's, you know, it
- 23:16depends on the cost, but I think that's also a plausible
- 23:20scenario, don't you? Well, I, I think you can do you
- 23:23can do a huge amount, yeah, for sure.
- 23:24And let's just do it right. The costs are there.
- 23:27Let's get all the impediments out of the way.
- 23:28Let's go, go, go build, build, build.
- 23:29I think that is very likely to happen for the rest of this
- 23:32decade and are excited about it. It can it do everything?
- 23:35Well, no, not really, because certain things that the grid
- 23:38needs to move electrons and all I should say it's not just
- 23:40batteries though, it's transmission as well, right.
- 23:42So you can store it or you can move it.
- 23:44Those are the two things. Or you can shed demand, But you
- 23:47know there's going to be a lot of that happening to accommodate
- 23:49this new type of intermittent power.
- 23:52And that's all hugely exciting, but the reality is that we need
- 23:55a lot of heat, right? So, and this perhaps takes us
- 23:58back to China again, when I was working with this other project
- 24:01called Repower Initiative, we started in Poland, because if
- 24:04you look at Poland's use of coal, it's very different to
- 24:06Europe. EU KS use of coal, it was
- 24:09providing a lot of CHP services and a lot of heat.
- 24:12So you couldn't just say, oh, it's fine, just, you know,
- 24:14switch to wind, that'd be fine. CHP is combined heat and power.
- 24:16So that's like steam steam pipes going through the roads into
- 24:20people's houses and keeping the whole city warm, right?
- 24:22So you need a heat source for that.
- 24:24Or it's powering an industrial process or a manufacturing
- 24:26process or, you know, all sorts of stuff like that, which we
- 24:29normally use gas for. But they were, they were using
- 24:31coal. So, so there's this cold
- 24:33dependency, which wasn't just power.
- 24:35And so, so, so we started looking there about the role of
- 24:39nuclear and, and actually Poland did stand up for nuclear in
- 24:43Europe and stood up to the Germans.
- 24:45And there's the Austrians and insisted that they wanted to do
- 24:48this. And, and then partly the reason
- 24:49was they could see that Europe was becoming far too dependent
- 24:52on gas, right? That is the reality of when
- 24:55you're muddling through this transition with renewables, you
- 24:59need something to back up the renewables.
- 25:01Yes, you could try and build hundreds and hundreds and
- 25:03hundreds of batteries and we are doing that now.
- 25:06But initially it was just gas that was providing the backup.
- 25:09So the polls said, well, we're not so comfortable with that
- 25:12kind of combination. What if we do nuclear as well?
- 25:13So, so that's, that's why Poland's going for nuclear and
- 25:18Poland's conditions are quite similar to China's, just China
- 25:21is a vastly bigger, bigger space and a bigger, bigger challenge.
- 25:25So I think something like 60% of Chinese coal has a heat
- 25:29component that's used. So you it, you can't just say
- 25:33ah, wind, solar, batteries, It's not, it's not going to answer
- 25:36that problem. I think in Finland, Finland,
- 25:38they've got ASMR company that is designing small reactors
- 25:44specifically to provide heat at the municipal scale as well.
- 25:47So that's their, you know, their solution, which I imagine
- 25:50they're hoping to export as well.
- 25:51But to come back to China, then tell us, well, if you can, if
- 25:54you can, if it's not private, tell us, tell us what you're
- 25:56doing there and give us some kind of impressions of what the
- 26:00sort of energy landscape is there.
- 26:02Yeah, I was. I was over there for a few days
- 26:04for a meeting talking about this concept of how do you re power
- 26:10or kind of reuse your thermal assets and the infrastructure
- 26:13that's built up around your thermal assets, meaning your
- 26:15coal plant and switch them out to clean.
- 26:19It's slightly different. It's the kind of subtle
- 26:21difference between just build your windows zone or anywhere
- 26:24and then interconnect them to the grid and it'll all be fine.
- 26:26It's kind of looking at these assets as what are they
- 26:28providing currently, the full services that they provide and
- 26:31how do you switch them out? And it, it is facilitated by
- 26:34there being clean, large scale, clean source of heat.
- 26:38The so a nuclear reactor gives you that heat.
- 26:40It's that steam temperature. And the Chinese have developed a
- 26:43high temperature reactor. So we talked about PWRS.
- 26:47I mean, they're quite low grade heat, 300, four, 100° of heat.
- 26:51That's not enough to power a coal turbine really speaking.
- 26:54So the there are versions of nuclear that produce much more
- 26:58high temperature heat that can catch the exact steam that a
- 27:01coal turbine is running on. So that that was exciting that
- 27:04China has already built and is already operating efforts HTR
- 27:08the high temperature reactor. So that's one reason why this
- 27:11concept of switching the coal out.
- 27:14So for nuclear works in China. It's not just that though.
- 27:17You can also use concentrated solar power that's a source of
- 27:19heat and feed lends itself to that vast areas where you can
- 27:24put in CSP. And then you've got the advanced
- 27:28geothermal now where you can drill for heat anywhere because
- 27:31of the advances in drilling technologies.
- 27:33So that's another potential technology that's going to come
- 27:36in and provide us with these heat sources.
- 27:38So that's why I was there. I was just exploring all of
- 27:40that. And as is always the case with
- 27:42China, you go there and as we were prepping for going there,
- 27:44we just realized that pretty much everything we were going to
- 27:47say to them, they've already done, but they've just done it
- 27:49once or they've done it in one area or they've done an
- 27:51experiment pilot. They haven't codified it yet
- 27:54into a policy or really dumb, you know, not that we're aware
- 27:58of yet that the scenarios they're looking at to get to
- 28:01their very challenging net 0 targets haven't quite got this
- 28:05concept in there embedded in there of this reuse.
- 28:08So that's what we're excited about is if we run the scenarios
- 28:10again with this idea embedded, what does that do in terms of
- 28:14China's ability to do this affordably and reliably and
- 28:17securely, basically? Doesn't China already have a
- 28:20thorium reactor molten salt thing which is reached
- 28:25criticality? And I mean, did you get any
- 28:26Intel on that? So perhaps we should have
- 28:28started with this, the story of how I got interested in nuclear,
- 28:31because that was you. Were Thorium pro or SIS?
- 28:33I don't know what. The yeah, exactly.
- 28:36I was like authoriophile whatever.
- 28:40I'd come across Kirk Sorensen while I was, I did a piece of
- 28:45work for the Guardian actually, which was assessing world
- 28:48changing ideas that could beat climate change.
- 28:50And they selected the best 10 and they got brought the malls
- 28:53in Manchester and got them presenting.
- 28:55And, and to credit to them, they selected a nuclear project and
- 28:58it was Kirk's. And it was this idea that we
- 29:01could use thorium fuel as opposed to uranium and we could
- 29:05combine that into a molten salt cooled reactor rather than a
- 29:09water cooled reactor, which is what the traditional ones are.
- 29:12And the combination of the fuel and the different coolant would
- 29:15give you a really inherently safe and different reactor.
- 29:19And it had been trialled famously by Alvin Weinberg like
- 29:22in the 60s. And this was a revival of that
- 29:24idea. And yeah, so I, I thought that
- 29:26was fussy a, that there was a whole type of nuclear that I'd
- 29:29never heard of. And it had all these different
- 29:31attributes that meant that it, you know, it was no risk of a
- 29:35Chernobyl style reaction happening if you switch to the
- 29:38molten salts. So it's kind of an intriguing I.
- 29:41Think thorium was kind of a gateway drug for a few, quite a
- 29:45few people It it's yeah. So I mean, it seemed to me a bit
- 29:48of AI don't want to knock you down, but a bit of a cult.
- 29:53So enthusiastic. Well, people got so enthusiastic
- 29:55about it and the advantages seem to me didn't seem that
- 29:58significant over uranium. I mean, I know there's like 10s
- 30:00of thousands of years worth of thorium just lying around.
- 30:02But like, anyway, back to China. They've actually got one up and
- 30:06running. I read it somewhere.
- 30:07Did you did you hear any more about this and whether it's even
- 30:10true? Well, so they, it's the molten
- 30:12salts that they're testing and they're doing, I think it's in
- 30:14the Gobi Desert and it's run out of Shanghai.
- 30:17And there's a Shanghai University Institute devoted to
- 30:21this and they, they're not using thorium with it.
- 30:24They're using just uranium fuels to test the malt salts as the
- 30:28coolant and that's what's currently being built and I
- 30:31believe is gone critical and is operating.
- 30:33I did not get to visit it. It's in the middle of nowhere
- 30:36and it and you know, China's like any vast continent scale
- 30:41country where you know, information flows and slightly
- 30:44pocketed. So I was hanging out with the
- 30:45Tsinghua University people who are much more interested in the
- 30:48high temperature reactor and that's what they're following.
- 30:50So, you know, there's but yes, they have got that and they, and
- 30:54we've also got their first little SMR that's coming on
- 30:57board quite. There's nothing they haven't
- 31:00really thought of or aren't doing.
- 31:01So that's their nature. You know, they were what I found
- 31:04striking was in Europe or in perhaps even in the US.
- 31:07We'll run ahead with an idea and we'll set targets and goals that
- 31:11we're not quite sure how we're going to meet, but we set them
- 31:13anyway because the challenge of getting there is going to be the
- 31:15thing, right. We do this not because it's
- 31:17easy, because it's hard kind of thing.
- 31:19China's completely opposite. They'll only set a target if
- 31:22they're very, very confident they can exceed it, and they
- 31:25want to know in minute detail how it's actually going to work.
- 31:28So that's the cultural difference, I think, is that
- 31:31they're in their testing phase right now.
- 31:33They haven't announced, although their nuclear ambitions are vast
- 31:36compared to everyone else, it's still not.
- 31:38They're not at full speed. They're still testing is my
- 31:40impression. And of course, famously in the
- 31:43West, we can't actually build anything or anything large at
- 31:46cost, right, Whether it's a bridge or a high speed rail or
- 31:49anything. Whereas in China they don't seem
- 31:51to have that problem. And maybe maybe this the the big
- 31:54nuclear problems with big nuclear in the West are
- 31:56basically just just an extension of that.
- 31:58Oh, well, there's no doubt the big construction they've,
- 32:00they've got, you know, very good at it.
- 32:02And labour costs are different, land costs are different, their
- 32:06regulatory environments, different land, but cost of
- 32:08capital, etcetera, etcetera. All of that gives them an edge.
- 32:12I mean, yeah, just look at the high speed rail right here I am
- 32:15in California. How long have we been talking
- 32:17about putting high speed rail between the two biggest
- 32:20conurbations on the West Coast? And it's still inching forward.
- 32:23They've built thousands of kilometers that connected all of
- 32:27their conurbations now with an amazing network.
- 32:29And it's happened practically overnight if you consider it
- 32:33Western standards. So, yeah, there's definitely
- 32:35something about our inability to do infrastructure well.
- 32:39And I mean, and this, well, this is a big topic, right?
- 32:41Because part of what's interesting in the US is you
- 32:45think of the US as kind of like, well, worst deregulated
- 32:48environment. But certain states like
- 32:49California almost more regulated than Europe, right?
- 32:53If you want a nanny state, I love it here.
- 32:56It's amazing. But boy, do they like to choose
- 32:59and get involved and dictate and their law making process is kind
- 33:03of, you know, almost too easy. They can pass laws and spend
- 33:06money, but it doesn't require them to take a really long term
- 33:09view. And and there's a lot of
- 33:12hitching of agendas onto everything, right?
- 33:14If you're going to build a rail system, you better make sure
- 33:17that it ticks all the boxes of social justice and this that and
- 33:20the other. And I don't want to sound like
- 33:22I'm anti all of those things, but when you load it all onto
- 33:24infrastructure, gosh does it slow it down.
- 33:27And just finishing in China, are they planning to dominate on
- 33:31SMRS as well? Because, you know, their kind of
- 33:34domination of, of solar and batteries and EVs and critical
- 33:38minerals hasn't, hasn't come up by accident, right?
- 33:40That's been a, you know, a project of industrial policies
- 33:43stretching back, well, ten years or more.
- 33:45Do they have the same agenda and the same ambition when it comes
- 33:47to nuclear? Almost certainly, yes.
- 33:49I mean, and I just saw news article said that they're
- 33:52already trialling that they're going to have nuclear ships,
- 33:54right. So, you know, you've got to
- 33:57remember lots of driving factors.
- 33:59One, they have no oil and gas, right?
- 34:01So they cannot just sit back. They can use their own fuel or
- 34:04develop a fossil based economy. They've got a lot of coal, yes,
- 34:08but when it comes to transport particularly, they're very
- 34:12vulnerable. They're importing all of that
- 34:14oil. So of course they're going to
- 34:15push into everything that they can that makes it more secure,
- 34:19more domestic, build out the supply chains.
- 34:22So yeah, I think of course they'll do that.
- 34:25The other thing that's driving them is Chinggua University has
- 34:28100,000 people on that campus and they produce so many
- 34:33engineers and so many people are working really, really hard.
- 34:37Like the level of dedication to furthering yourself through
- 34:41education is incredible. Those people all got to find
- 34:44jobs in the economy. And the real kind of worry is
- 34:48that, you know, we're going to have unemployment or unrest or
- 34:50people working all their lives to get their kids into the best
- 34:53university to do really well and then no job.
- 34:56So, so they build out industries as an extension of that drive
- 35:00towards education and research and furthering things.
- 35:03It's, it's a completely made, there's lots of problems with
- 35:06it, but it's thought through, right?
- 35:07It's got it. They're playing chess, right?
- 35:10And I think unfortunately, if the US is playing chess, it's
- 35:13playing it like a gorilla would play chess, right?
- 35:15Just throwing the pieces everywhere, changing its mind,
- 35:18you know, just storming out the room.
- 35:20It's not. It's not.
- 35:21Doesn't have that long term measured, thought out, argued
- 35:26through and then implemented feel to it, does it?
- 35:28Yeah, I mean, here on saving the world from bad ideas, we're
- 35:31quite pro democracy and we've had quite a few guests talking
- 35:36about democratic backsliding and and the rise of authoritarianism
- 35:39and and obviously all of the problems there.
- 35:41And China is a pretty authoritarian country.
- 35:45It's even exporting authoritarian tech as well
- 35:47around the world, as well as nice things like solar and
- 35:49batteries. What kind of impression did you
- 35:51get of that? I mean, it's, it's one thing we
- 35:53we kind of it because they can take this very long term as
- 35:55view. That's because I've got like a
- 35:57single dictator at the top who whose ideas, you know, can just
- 36:01then be implemented throughout the rest of the Communist Party
- 36:03structure for the next decade or something.
- 36:05I mean, you're not, I'm sure you're not suggesting that's a
- 36:07superior way to organize affairs.
- 36:09But like, you know, having just been there, I haven't been to
- 36:11China for almost a decade. Like how?
- 36:14How does that feel? Well, I mean, it comes, you
- 36:16know, you see it, you know, if you want to get access to
- 36:18everything, you're used to being able to get access.
- 36:20You need a VPN, right? There are things that you
- 36:22cannot. Be on the Internet, you mean?
- 36:24Yeah. Yeah, exactly right.
- 36:26So the information environment is controlled and it is very
- 36:30paternalistic in that sense. And it's you'd think there'd be
- 36:34a lot of frustration. Maybe you'd talk to young
- 36:35people, They would chat to some of the students there.
- 36:38Do they feel hemmed in? Do they feel, you know, like
- 36:40angry that they can't get access to?
- 36:42And actually, quite often, while you'll hear, and of course this
- 36:44is parroting what they want you to, to say is, well, I don't
- 36:48want full freedom because it might, you know, I don't need to
- 36:51see everything. Something's harmful or I don't
- 36:53want to be, you know, I, I quite like the fact that I'm not being
- 36:58made to feel miserable or, you know, that because they pick up,
- 37:00of course, they get the, the, the, they have a window onto the
- 37:04West. They can see what's happening
- 37:05here too. And our version of freedom can
- 37:09look pretty dystopian at times. So it's a really big
- 37:13philosophical discussion, isn't it?
- 37:15Because absolute freedom doesn't work, right?
- 37:17Just doesn't. As Naomi Oreske's famously said,
- 37:21freedom for the wolf is slaughter for the lamb, right?
- 37:23So, so whose freedom are you protecting?
- 37:26In the US, we protect corporate freedoms more than any one thing
- 37:29else, right? Corporate ability to do
- 37:31corporates want is, is lionize. And that means that they survey
- 37:35the country's habits. They're watching what you're
- 37:38doing. They're but marketing to you
- 37:40that, you know, lots of stuff in the pursuit of shareholder
- 37:43value. China's doing all of those
- 37:46things and more in the pursuit of stability.
- 37:49That's what they would argue that they we create a society,
- 37:53they're stable. You can't really say that there
- 37:56aren't downsides to both, right? And.
- 37:58And what would be fun is if Europe could be a really good
- 38:01mixture of the two. I don't know that we've got the
- 38:05cohesion or harmony in Europe to do that.
- 38:08But yeah, neither is perfect by any stretch.
- 38:11And I don't know enough about the data.
- 38:15You can get a feel while you're there.
- 38:16It feels very dynamic. It feels well run.
- 38:20But you know, I've been in the big cities, actually did get
- 38:22out. I did get out into the
- 38:23countryside Great Wall and saw drove through the kind of more
- 38:26rural areas. But it's an impression, right?
- 38:29And so I don't really know. I'd love to dig into.
- 38:32Do you know the data by how would you find it?
- 38:34That's the question, right? Yeah.
- 38:36And of course, I'm asking you to sum up a country of 1.8 billion
- 38:39people in just 20 seconds, if that's all right and.
- 38:44Yeah. I mean, did you, did you get the
- 38:47sense that this is a project of climate change there sort of big
- 38:50clean energy build out? Or is it to do with air
- 38:52pollution? Or is this to do with just
- 38:54dominating the, you know, the, the, the economy going forward
- 38:57globally with exports and so on? Like what?
- 38:58What? What's the big?
- 39:00Why are they doing it? It's just energy security.
- 39:03It's, it's recognising energy as an input to the entire economy
- 39:06and that energy's a function of growth and development.
- 39:09And if you don't have it or it's too expensive or it's, you know,
- 39:12then you will, you can't do what you want to do.
- 39:15I mean, they more than anyone have had to work out like when
- 39:18they do, we're going to do EVs at scale now, you know, do it
- 39:22here. They have to, the access to
- 39:24energy is a massive part of that equation.
- 39:27So so yeah, it's it's about that.
- 39:29It's about being able to maintain prosperity, maintain
- 39:32independence, maintain affordability.
- 39:34Climate is in there. I mean, then they're, you know,
- 39:37very pro science, right? So they're not skeptics in any
- 39:40way on climate. And so, yeah, that definitely
- 39:43features air quality was a big driver, right, for the cities.
- 39:46But they they cracked that one by just moving the power
- 39:48stations further away and putting in HVDC cabling, which
- 39:51is actually also an amazing innovation that they did better
- 39:54than anyone else. So it's a combination of those
- 39:57factors. But the big one is not having
- 39:59any oil and gas. If you don't have access to your
- 40:02own oil and gas, you don't want to be.
- 40:03They don't like to be reliant on other people.
- 40:06And so self-sufficiency is the driver.
- 40:09And then maybe accidentally then they've made solar so
- 40:12unbelievably cheap with them currently, there's a lot of
- 40:14overcapacity in China that they're, it's just being,
- 40:16they're just dumping it on, on, you know, Pakistan famously, and
- 40:20other countries in the global S who, which are now building out
- 40:22solar. And, you know, it's a huge rate
- 40:24actually. And they kind of from the bottom
- 40:25up. This isn't like grid stuff being
- 40:27done by utility grids. This is householders literally
- 40:30just plugging in, right, which is an incredible, incredible
- 40:33shift and and is driven by, I don't know, accidental export
- 40:37imperatives from China, it seems.
- 40:39Yeah, Well, I mean, the the story is, you know, well, well
- 40:42told starts I think in the US with NASA, right.
- 40:46And then Germany goes, right, we're going to do solar and
- 40:48famously starts to manufacture it at scale, brings the cost
- 40:52down. And then China goes, oh, that's
- 40:53good. We we've got a lot of sunshine,
- 40:55we'll do that too. And then we can manufacture
- 40:56great, let's do it. And here we are now with this
- 40:59massive, massive, I mean, there's going to be quite a lot
- 41:02of oversupply in that market for sure.
- 41:04And there is, and people are predicting a slowdown.
- 41:07They're predicting a kind of falling away of demand from
- 41:10within the Chinese market. So what they do, they move out
- 41:13into export. And they're also got great
- 41:16relationships with lots of different countries.
- 41:17So I mean, great relations. That's the euphemism for kind of
- 41:22there's quite a lot of interdependency.
- 41:23And even though Nepal's a great example where suddenly everyone
- 41:27in Nepal's driving electric vehicles.
- 41:30Why is that? Because China just went, here
- 41:32you go, you're going to buy these now.
- 41:33And that is what they'll do. They'll they'll find out.
- 41:37And they already are they Southeast Asia, the uptake of
- 41:40solar and EVs is rapidly rising, right?
- 41:43And batteries combined. So the whole deal.
- 41:45And if you think about it, if someone turns up and says to
- 41:48you, hey, we get this is going to be a bit of upfront capital
- 41:50costs here, but hey, we can probably lend you the money.
- 41:53Once you've installed it, that's it.
- 41:54You just run it, right? You've got your solar on your
- 41:56batteries that is going to run your infrastructure.
- 41:58Someone else turns up and says, oh, I've got this really great
- 42:01fuel. You have to install lots of
- 42:02infrastructure to absorb it and to burn, burn it.
- 42:05And then once you've done that, you have to keep buying it from
- 42:07me continually forever, because as soon as you've burnt it, it's
- 42:10gone. That's such an unattractive
- 42:13proposition compared to the Electrotech proposition.
- 42:15And of course, it's course it's winning.
- 42:18Well, and in, in places like Africa, most obviously, I mean,
- 42:21particularly where there's no access to electricity at all,
- 42:24few solar panels and a battery and suddenly you've got a, you
- 42:26know, a small grid and they can get connected.
- 42:28And, you know, it's probably the quickest way to to get people
- 42:33to, you know, connected to electricity, at least at the
- 42:35outset, right. And the fact that China's got
- 42:37all these exports at such low costs is, is going to be a
- 42:40complete game changer for Africa, I think.
- 42:42But to go back to our, our favorite topic is the role for
- 42:46nuclear in, in Africa and, and in, you know, the poorer
- 42:50countries as they sort of industrialize and, and get more
- 42:53electricity for their, for their populations.
- 42:55It's a good question, isn't it? I mean, I think the place it
- 42:58lives starts and it and it will it'll win on veil in is, is the
- 43:03big is the really big countries who've got big enough markets to
- 43:06justify the regulation, the infrastructure, the fuel supply
- 43:11chains, the manufacturing, all of that.
- 43:13And that's, that's, that's going to be US China.
- 43:16I mean, we haven't talked about Russia, but Russia has always
- 43:18maintained its nuclear capabilities nucleus domestic
- 43:21commercial nuclear capabilities and they've been selling
- 43:24reactors. Rose Adam is the one that you
- 43:26know, goes out selling its wares to a lot of people.
- 43:28India famously signed a contract with 10 nuclear reactors prior
- 43:31to the troubles in Ukraine and the invasion, illegal invasion
- 43:35in Ukraine. So yes, so those are the, it's
- 43:38the big blocks that will do it now.
- 43:40Well to that then means there's an affordable reactor and A and
- 43:45a regulatory environment that can sustain it in countries
- 43:47which are, you know, earlier in their development curve.
- 43:50I don't know, it'll be an interesting thing to watch.
- 43:52I mean, certainly the Middle East is embracing nuclear and
- 43:55that's adjacent. Perhaps you don't need it if
- 43:57you've got transmission and you've got lots of distributed
- 44:00renewables. I think maybe I'm definitely not
- 44:02a nuclear everywhere person. I really don't want to be
- 44:04characterized as that I strategically think has a role
- 44:08to play. And I'm particularly interested
- 44:09in China. If Africa goes down that path,
- 44:13it'll only do so if it's cheap. And that's so that's the test,
- 44:15right? In 15 years time, will you be
- 44:17able to dial up and get a cheap nuclear reactor?
- 44:21I don't know, 30 years time maybe?
- 44:24It'll be too cheap to meter I. Don't know about that.
- 44:28I mean, interestingly, solar is getting too cheap to meter in
- 44:32the sense that it's now negatively pricing and there's a
- 44:35point at which saturation gets reached unless you're, you know,
- 44:40then you're then you're waiting for all these transmission lines
- 44:42to go in. Or, or if you bring, if you have
- 44:45enough batteries and you don't need transmission either because
- 44:47you can only you'll need to transmit then not when you're
- 44:50generating, but when, when there's the demand and you can
- 44:52do arbitrage and you know, sell, sell at high prices and load up
- 44:56your batteries at lower prices. And you know, I could even do
- 44:58that at the household level. You know, I've got a solar array
- 45:01here and even in the UK if I had, you know, if the batteries
- 45:04came down in costs efficiently for me to charge them up at
- 45:06night and then, you know, dump it back into the grid during the
- 45:09day. You know, and particularly if
- 45:10the whole thing is run by AI or something, you wouldn't want to
- 45:12do this by hand. And enough people are doing it.
- 45:14That's going to change the whole dynamics of how utilities and
- 45:18grids and everything operate. And I don't think, I mean, I
- 45:20sure as hell don't have a sense of how that's going to play out.
- 45:22I mean, I don't know if do you feel you do?
- 45:24No, not at all. And that's the interesting bit
- 45:26rate that there's this all this dynamic end of wire change
- 45:30happening where people are just going, oh, hang on a SEC, I've
- 45:33got sun and I've got a garage, I've got a battery in there and
- 45:36I've got my EV like a kind of detaching themselves from the
- 45:39old utility model. And for a period that was a
- 45:42problem because all that was happening was you're seeing
- 45:44demand distraction on the on the grid, like it just was showing
- 45:48up as negative demand. They were just disappearing.
- 45:50And then suddenly the cost base, you're having to spread the same
- 45:54fixed costs over smaller or smaller numbers of customers.
- 45:57So then prices start to rise and everyone's start.
- 45:59You know, it's sort of been happening, I think in an
- 46:02unplanned way, certainly. And now we've got people hanging
- 46:05solar panels of balconies in Germany wherever, you know, like
- 46:08Australia, suddenly rapidly, everyone's got a solar panel on
- 46:11every roof. And that really challenges the
- 46:14existing utility model. But what's changed there?
- 46:17And I think this isn't, you know, part of why I think the
- 46:20nuclear comes back is that demand is starting to rise
- 46:23again. So whereas demand was just being
- 46:25distracted, being destroyed or holdings holding steady, we're
- 46:29seeing demand rise because of the increase in use of it, of IT
- 46:33and data centres and and AI. And that is causing again about
- 46:38bigger projects, more investment into conventional generation,
- 46:42which was kind of frozen for the longest time.
- 46:45And of course, famously, you can get hold of solar panels and
- 46:48batteries faster than you can a gas turbine.
- 46:50At the moment, there's a big waiting list for gas turbines,
- 46:53so it looks like that's going to be a boost for renewables in the
- 46:57short term. But it also means that when you
- 46:59pitch your modular reactor to an utility, then you've got a
- 47:03strong case for it because the demand growth is back.
- 47:07I do want to talk about AI and data centres.
- 47:09I mean, Nucleus beginning to sound a bit like a niche
- 47:11product, though. It's like 15 to 30 years away.
- 47:14It's good for these, you know, heat things, powering cities.
- 47:18With these heat things, that is about 1/3 of primary energy so
- 47:21you know you can't just dismiss. It is.
- 47:23It is CHP 1/3 of primary. Energy.
- 47:25No, I mean heat is a heat is a, it is a big part.
- 47:29I don't know exact data. It's I can check for you, but
- 47:32you can't dismiss it because it's driving industry and
- 47:34manufacturing as well as heating buildings great.
- 47:37So it's it's a big portion. All right, all right.
- 47:39But is, is one of these niche applications, AI and data
- 47:42centres, because I know there's been some deals signed, haven't
- 47:45there with some of the big, big companies and some of the newer
- 47:48SMR companies. I mean, are these just like
- 47:50paper MO us or is some of it actually commercially relevant?
- 47:54Yeah. I mean, Google's been doing
- 47:55quite a lot of this, right? Trying to pull forward the
- 47:57supply curve with them, underwriting it with PPA, the
- 48:01power purchase agreements. And I mean, you know, I think
- 48:04that's a very good, it's a good thing, right?
- 48:06It's a, it's a, it's a way of getting over in the West.
- 48:09This problem you have between, oh, I've got my demo, but I
- 48:12can't get it out of the valley of death and commerciality.
- 48:15And so my first of a kind got to go to end of a kind.
- 48:17And how do I do that? And so Google and others, big,
- 48:20big buyers have been trying to solve for that.
- 48:22And yeah, their, their, their contract with Kairos is the one
- 48:27that the most, perhaps most relevant to the nuclear debate.
- 48:29And I mean, they did their homework.
- 48:31That's, it's, it's got a very, very talented team.
- 48:35It's, as I say, started. They've already broken ground on
- 48:37their test reactor. But also Google will be around
- 48:40the world trying to build things now, right?
- 48:42Not waiting for the five to 10 years it takes Kairos to get
- 48:45their reactors on the ground. And now they're probably doing
- 48:47geothermal and they may well then they'll be certainly doing
- 48:50batteries, certainly be trying to do wind and solar wire.
- 48:53It makes sense. And they'll probably be building
- 48:55gas as well, right. And that is the thing that is
- 48:58going to happen in the near term is we'll probably see a lot more
- 49:01gas burnt as well as everything else.
- 49:05Well, you mentioned geothermal a couple of times and that's
- 49:06another heat thing. So I'd like to put it, is that
- 49:09going to be something which is very geographically restricted
- 49:13and like tectonically hot zones or is it becoming something
- 49:16which can be deployed more or less anywhere now?
- 49:18In theory, you can deploy anywhere, you know, within The
- 49:22thing is that we can drill deeper and we can fracture the
- 49:26rocks and create heat stores in ways that we couldn't previously
- 49:29thanks to the, you know, unconventional shale gas
- 49:32developments. And so those drilling
- 49:35technologies are now coming across to geothermal and it is
- 49:37changing the game. So you can you can where you
- 49:40need to rather than wait where there's a happens to be a
- 49:43geological feature of of like wet rock heat, you can go to dry
- 49:47rock and you can start to draw. And I think probably I did, we
- 49:51did an episode of a Jamie Beard who works for this sort of
- 49:54geothermal house promotion of geothermal.
- 49:57And I and talking to her, she's got a really, really compelling
- 50:00story about how oil and gas service companies.
- 50:04So the Halliburtons and all the guys who, because the big named
- 50:09oil companies don't do their own actual infrastructure, they'll
- 50:12contract in and those contractors are now realizing
- 50:15they've got another, another potential buyer of their
- 50:17services and that's the geothermal.
- 50:19So that switch is happening. And I think although you could
- 50:22do it anywhere, I suspect where it will come first is places
- 50:26like America where you've got a lot of land, not many people,
- 50:29and a fairly light touch environmental regulatory
- 50:31environment, plus all of these people who've got these specific
- 50:35bits of kit and specific skills you can switch across.
- 50:38So I think geothermal could be quite significant.
- 50:41But yeah, it'll be, there'll be this interesting confluence of
- 50:44an existing workforce and an existing set of infrastructure
- 50:47that can be pivoted. Yeah, which isn't everywhere.
- 50:50What about nuclear fusion? I mean, I've, I've been a
- 50:53sceptic on this, but I keep reading headlines about new
- 50:55breakthroughs and I don't follow it closely enough really to be
- 50:58that informed. I mean, is, is it, is it a
- 51:01serious challenge of fishing in maybe 30 years?
- 51:04I don't know. I mean, I, yeah, occasionally,
- 51:06you know, you have every conference you go to, you'll
- 51:08meet a fusion person. Now I think it's a long way off
- 51:12and I don't, I think there are some fundamentals that make it
- 51:16incredibly, incredibly difficult, right.
- 51:19And and it, they, they sort of trade themselves as the clean
- 51:23squiggy, clean version, nuclear. But the truth is that, you know,
- 51:26if you're, if you're creating these fusion events, it creates
- 51:31radiation like there, there is a, there's an element of it
- 51:34which is just very hard to handle and contain.
- 51:37And I, I think in, I mean, you know, I don't want to say we're
- 51:41not going to do it. Maybe we will.
- 51:43I think it's being oversold somewhat right now.
- 51:46I think the problems are very, very challenging and let's see
- 51:51it, you know, and you've got different versions.
- 51:53I mean, you've got the sort of slightly small, some people
- 51:55saying, you know, we can get it down to a very small scale.
- 51:57And there's the top of Mac massively huge experiments going
- 52:01on. I mean, I'm all in favour of
- 52:04keeping the experiments going and I wouldn't want us to stop
- 52:07trying, but I, I'm not don't see it riding over the horizon to
- 52:10save us it. The time scales are just don't
- 52:12match up and the challenges are just too fundamental still I
- 52:17think. And the thing that bugs me about
- 52:19the argument for fusion is that the the reasons they they give
- 52:22for doing it are actually, well, the improvements they say are
- 52:25efficient actually are kind of imaginary anyway.
- 52:27I mean, it's it's like, oh, it doesn't produce waste.
- 52:30Well, I don't care about. Waste.
- 52:31No it does. It's pretty non.
- 52:32Issue and so well Even so nuclear waste and fission is
- 52:35like is not the issue that. It's Oh, exactly and even.
- 52:37So yes, there's two points. So what?
- 52:38Problem are you trying to solve even.
- 52:39Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I mean, we haven't talked
- 52:42about in fact, which has been refreshing your skepticism of
- 52:45nuclear stems from speed and affordability rate and that is
- 52:50where the nuclear sort of skepticism is now retreated to.
- 52:54I get less and less people saying what about the waste or
- 52:57what about the accidents? And, you know, just that
- 53:00thankfully, I think we've got through.
- 53:03Hopefully people are real realizing that those were never
- 53:06really issues and we can make them feel like bigger issues
- 53:08than they really are. But what?
- 53:09To what end? Really.
- 53:11Yeah. Yeah, and I, I wrote a report
- 53:13for We Planet called Water Waste and I did some of the numbers
- 53:16for if you recycle spent fuel, how long can you right basically
- 53:20run the entire countries for centuries, even even, you know,
- 53:23the UK, US, everywhere that's, that's stored up quite a lot of
- 53:27spent fuel if you were to recycle it into a new generation
- 53:29of, of fast reactors. And interestingly, some of the
- 53:32SMR companies are now talking about this and they're talking
- 53:35about waste recycling as one of the products that they'll offer,
- 53:38which I think actually is really exciting because you've got the
- 53:40spent fuel from, you know, first couple of generations of, of, of
- 53:43pressurized water reactors hanging around.
- 53:46And either it goes into a big hole on the ground like the one
- 53:48they're digging in Finland, or you recycle it, which to me is,
- 53:51is a much greener, a much greener option.
- 53:54I don't know. Have you been following this?
- 53:56I saw a media report about the US, some of the companies
- 54:00looking at recycling waste. Do you think this is a big deal
- 54:03or not? I mean, to the extent that
- 54:04everyone was kind of woken up to the fact that some of our, you
- 54:08know, nuclear supply chain was not immune to the, you know, the
- 54:11problems that we experienced in the Ukrainian invasion rate.
- 54:15Russia is a fabricator of fuels. So there was a definite sudden
- 54:19focus on, hang on a minute, how, how, how can we diversify our
- 54:22nuclear fuel supply chains? And, and obviously where you've
- 54:26got stores of plutonium sitting there, that is a source to go
- 54:29look at. Again, I think I'm right in
- 54:32saying that the, the worries about the uranium supply chain
- 54:34have lessened. I mean, famously places like
- 54:36Australia are big, big sources of uranium and there are other
- 54:39places that that mine it too. So it's not, you know, that
- 54:42imperative of Oh my goodness, what if we get a squeeze on
- 54:45uranium is lessened, But there's still, yes.
- 54:49Your point is that you've got this stuff lying around.
- 54:51If you can reuse it, wouldn't that be a good thing?
- 54:53I think the cost of doing it versus just the natural, you
- 54:57know, enrichment of of uranium coming out of the ground doesn't
- 55:01stack up right now. But who knows, You know, going
- 55:03forward there is a but then maybe we'll do thorium, right?
- 55:07Because once you've got a lot of fissile material and plutonium
- 55:11is the perfect precursor for breeding thorium to make it
- 55:15fissile. It's fertile when it's in the
- 55:17ground, but it needs to be kicked started.
- 55:21I don't know as the honest answer, and I'm not enough of a
- 55:24chemist or an engineer to know how hard it is to process these
- 55:27fuels once they've been sitting there for a while.
- 55:29I suspect they're decaying into all kinds of bits of the table
- 55:33of elements. So it, you know, it is, it is a
- 55:35resource that's it's always, it's always treated as if it's a
- 55:38waste. But it's, it's contains this a
- 55:41huge amount of potential energy because the fuels, you're only
- 55:44allotting them, you're only using 2% of the fuel right
- 55:47before you have to take it out and store it.
- 55:50So yeah, still a lot of energy there.
- 55:53Yeah, and, and in plutonium in particular, I mean, I know
- 55:55everyone's terrified of plutonium, but actually it's a
- 55:57really great fuel. And actually the only, the only
- 56:01people who agree with us on this is the Trump administration.
- 56:06Yeah, very strange bedfellow situation.
- 56:08Which reminds me, I mean, the the the way they want to make
- 56:11nuclear cheap is to tear up all of the safety regulations and
- 56:14basically, you know, kind of, I wouldn't say destroy the Nuclear
- 56:19Regulatory Committee, the NRC, but at least defang it in terms
- 56:22of its ability to hold things up.
- 56:24What's your reading of that? I mean is that is that move in
- 56:27the right direction or are they, are they endangering the safety
- 56:29of the public? The safety of the public was was
- 56:32gold plated to such a degree that yes, it became impossible
- 56:36to do anything right. And when you think about our
- 56:39perceptions of risk that industrial accidents, nuclear
- 56:43got singled out and treated in such an extraordinary way that
- 56:47yes, in a way, the green movement got got to a point
- 56:50where it had convinced everybody that they need to regulate this
- 56:53to to a point where it's even safer inside a nuclear reactor
- 56:56than it is on public beaches in Turkey because the background
- 56:59radiation emitted from the planet is higher than the
- 57:03standards that they're required to meet.
- 57:05And then you've got the decommissioning requirements,
- 57:07which require it to go back to Greenfield.
- 57:10So, you know, back to as it was before even industrialization
- 57:13happened. When in reality, if you just
- 57:16leave a nuclear reactor alone for a while, take the fuel rods
- 57:18out, make it safe, leave it around, leave it around for a
- 57:21while, the longer you leave it, the easier it is to clean it up,
- 57:23right? So forcing us into these
- 57:26expensive overreactions to this radiophobia really, because
- 57:31people don't really understand radiation and it's a complex
- 57:35subject and energy ministers don't spend enough time thinking
- 57:38about it that we allow this kind of huge and regulatory burden to
- 57:43to be put onto the industry. I'm not saying be unmindful
- 57:47about safety, but we've, we've become so wedded to this, we,
- 57:51there's this theory, I'm sure you've covered it in other, in
- 57:54other podcasts about the, the exposure to radiation.
- 57:57Is it a threshold event or is it a linear exposure to risk?
- 58:01Like the meaning that does the risk just stay there forever
- 58:04until it tracks to 0? Or is there a threshold under
- 58:07which it can be deemed to be safe because it's within natural
- 58:10variability boundaries? And we don't regulate on a
- 58:14threshold basis. We regulate right down to 0.
- 58:17And that's what causes a bit of a crazy overreaction to
- 58:21radiation, which is, let's face it, hitting us from all angles.
- 58:24Comes out the rocks, comes out from your partner who sleeps
- 58:27next to you at night, and it comes from the sun.
- 58:30This radiation is everywhere. We evolved radiation and it's
- 58:34just the the sort of degree of power is not really warranted.
- 58:38Listen, we should, we should probably wind up there, but I'm
- 58:41trying to think, have you, have you convinced me that that we
- 58:44still need nuclear or we don't need nuclear anymore is a bad
- 58:47idea? I think for the moment, but I
- 58:49think we might have to, we might have to come back to this.
- 58:51And this is, you know, it's the situation that's just changing
- 58:53so rapidly all the time. I kind of, well, I'd say I keep
- 58:56changing my mind, but I think keeping an open mind is probably
- 58:59the right way forward. Would you really agree on that?
- 59:02Oh, no, no, totally. Yeah.
- 59:03I mean, I'm a bit like, you know, I like, I like to change
- 59:07my mind with evidence. And if it's shown to me that
- 59:10there's absolutely no role for in China is going to get off its
- 59:12thousand gigawatts of coal to provide 60% of which is
- 59:16providing heat that without, without it, then I'll be the
- 59:19first to celebrate. But they're building it, they're
- 59:22experimenting with it. It will speed up their
- 59:23transition. I suppose I'd like to sort of
- 59:26convey a sense of excitement about it because that is what
- 59:29got me. So yes, Thorium was the gateway
- 59:31drag. But then once I really
- 59:32understood just the inherent efficiency of this process, the
- 59:36kind of the land sparing nature of it, right?
- 59:39That these are these are very, very dense sites which produce a
- 59:43huge amount of power. And that that gives us more
- 59:46space in the in the world to do other things with the land that
- 59:48you would otherwise be carpeting with energy or digging fossils
- 59:52out of the ground perennially. I think it's got a very, very
- 59:55low environmental impact. And that's exciting.
- 59:58And it allows us to do things that like space exploration that
- 1:00:01we just can't do with anything else.
- 1:00:02So that's why I come back to it as just.
- 1:00:06It's part of human, it's part of our story of human development
- 1:00:09has been a part, is still a part and will be a part.
- 1:00:11And I think gives us kind of a hope.
- 1:00:14It gives me hope. And I I'm a very pro humanity
- 1:00:18environmentalist. So that's why it's in my basket
- 1:00:21of things I really get excited about.
- 1:00:23Well, Amen to that. And actually, I agree with you
- 1:00:25that nucleus the most environmentally friendly of all
- 1:00:28of the energy sources. But whether it's the cheapest is
- 1:00:31remains remains to be seen. This this is our season finale,
- 1:00:35I think. So I think we should from
- 1:00:38producer Rob, who's wearing his Santa Claus beard without you
- 1:00:43shouldn't dress up in red, at least producer Rob.
- 1:00:45But anyway, I think from, from all of us, it's happy Christmas.
- 1:00:48So from me, from Baroness Worthington, Happy Christmas.
- 1:00:53Yeah. Yeah, happy Christmas, looking
- 1:00:55forward to 2026. And yeah, let's revisit it again
- 1:00:59in a few years time and we'll see see how far we've got.
- 1:01:01But yeah, thank you so much for inviting me on and thanks for
- 1:01:04producing the podcast, Rob. Good to see you.
- 1:01:06Thanks Bernie and we'll see everyone in 2026.
- 1:01:10Goodbye. Thanks so much for listening to
- 1:01:15Saving the World from Bad Ideas, a Weplanet podcast.
- 1:01:18Weplanet's a movement of citizens and scientists
- 1:01:21dedicated to defending the science and solutions we need to
- 1:01:23save the world. Please do subscribe and share a
- 1:01:26nice review. It helps us spread the message.
- 1:01:28We'd also love to hear your feedback and suggestions at our
- 1:01:30e-mail podcast at weplanet.org. Please also join our podcast
- 1:01:34mailing list and we'll let you know when a new episode drops.
- 1:01:37Just go to Saving the World from badideas.org or
- 1:01:40weplanet.org/podcast right now. See you next time.