Latest / The Curve / TCW92: Key takeaways from the UK’s historic budget.

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TCW92: Key takeaways from the UK’s historic budget. · The Curve

0:00
Welcome to the Curve Weekly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all of the money
0:04
business and stock market too.
0:06
Brought to you by the Curve's research team, it's the latest insights on what's happening
0:09
in the stock market, companies, other money related news so that you can stay educated and
0:14
ahead of the curve.
0:15
You can thank us later for sounding smarter than those finance bros you need to know, Patti.
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I'm so proud of myself, Fick. Do you know what I did this morning?
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Got a flat white zero and an oak flat white?
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No, that was an accident. They accidentally gave me the wrong one.
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But my new coffee order, sorry, we'll get to you in a second, is a Americana with
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Muncher.
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What the hell?
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What do you think?
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There's an Americana, like a long black, with milk, but then they also put Muncher in.
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This is a Muncher with hot water, but a little bit of a milk on top.
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Why would you pay for that?
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You can just literally shove a bit of Muncher, you scrunch it up in a bowl with a tiny bit
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of water and put it in, like, you do not have instant coffee too.
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No, but my point is they literally just use packet Muncher in a cafe, so you may as well
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just do that at home, like, whereas in a cafe, you're paying for Munch, better quality
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coffee.
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You can make your own coffee.
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I think the big problem here is that a watery Muncher is disgusting.
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It's not, it's like a Muncher tea.
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That's just okay.
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Well, back to me.
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I am really proud of myself. This week I went to the supermarket on Sunday and got
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things like eggs, you know, like little sprouts, things like trying to get my veggie count
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up and also not just buying things because I'm being lazy and, you know, busy and not
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buying or, like, making my own food anyway.
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Firstly, I've got my way through all of the things I bought, so I don't have any wastage.
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And secondly, my massive thing was this morning.
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I went to get my own flat white.
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I thought before I left the house, I'm starving and I want one of the delicious croissants.
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But instead, I thought, no, you spent money on eggs.
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I boiled some eggs and I ate them before and then I wasn't hungry when I got to the
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cafe.
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I find when I got to a cafe hungry, it is so hard to tell myself not to buy a treat.
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It's like going to the supermarket and hungover.
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Oh, I used to do that at uni all the time.
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It's kind of fun, isn't it?
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Lady into it though.
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And then we'd drink the chocolate milk and we'd eat the bread.
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We'd eat the bread on the way while we're doing the shop and then I remember we were
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doing the flat shop and we got to the till and we were like, oh, here's an empty packet
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of bread because we're eating it.
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There's half drunk milk and they found it funny.
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But then we went to put through the actual food for the week and we didn't have enough
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money.
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Sorry.
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We had to go back to the flat with like this empty plastic bag and half drunk milk and
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stuff and we were like, sorry, we got really hungry at the same time.
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Did you used to do like, you would all put money into an account and then just pay for
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that way?
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Yeah.
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I'd be so annoyed if you came home and it's been my, our shared collective grocery
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money on your hungover snack.
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Well, technically we re-bought the stuff.
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We just ate it really quickly.
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So many.
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I know.
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Listen to the day kids don't go to the supermarket, hungover, even better.
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Don't drink.
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Don't get hungover.
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Oh my god, I'm not going to go on about it right now.
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Oh my god.
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But my non-alcoholic weekends are so smug about last weekend, I absolutely had a blow
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out and I hated myself on Sunday and they thought, no, no, no, we're not doing that
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anymore.
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Anyway, do you know what's actually so embarrassing?
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So we've had so many of them move into our house and they've changed something about how
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I wanted to buy a house.
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He's said he's chunged in for about four episodes and he said, oh, I have heard you
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talk, he made this house situation like six months ago, please tell me not still talking
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about it.
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And I was like, do things take time, buddy?
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I feel like I really am annoying.
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Don't let that pressure you.
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You know?
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It's the biggest purchase probably you're even making your life and if it takes you six
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months or six years, so I'll be it.
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Thank you.
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Mr.
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You know, it's about the fact that I obviously go on and on about the thing, like a no-drinking
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alcohol.
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Anyway, over here in the UK, when you're pregnant, oh god, it's taking so long to get into
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this world.
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What?
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When you're pregnant, it's going to be so obvious because you'll be like, like, I haven't
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drunk.
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It's been nine months now, you know, and I'll be like, oh, sorry, and we move on.
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Thank you.
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Sorry.
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The UK budget has just come out.
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And so lots of people will be listening either not in the UK, in New Zealand, Australia,
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other parts of the world.
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We're going to make this relevant for everyone because it's a really good example of how
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you can understand how budgets actually work for countries.
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Yep.
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This has been such an unlock for me because, embarrassingly, I haven't paid enough attention
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to the budgets where people talk about it.
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I don't really get excited because I don't understand what's going on.
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And that this tiny shift of perspective and that it's all of our money being pulled together
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and the government's deciding how to spend it, that might sound really obvious to a lot
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of people, but it wasn't for me.
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So just like you're in personal budget as well, it's like the government's budget.
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It gets money from taxes and then it has to spend money on public things like parks and
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healthcare and welfare and all of that.
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So it's trying to balance that, like, incoming and outgoing and sometimes you get governments
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and they're like, woohoo, we're going to spend.
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And then you get others that come and go, oh gosh, now we have to increase the revenue
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by doing that through taxes.
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When we pay taxes, that essentially goes into the budget pooling and then the government
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decides what we're going to spend that on.
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Yes.
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And so with this particular budget, the reason we wanted to highlight it, we put some
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stuff on socials as well, but it's very special.
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It's the first woman that's made a budget for the UK in a thousand years.
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Eva.
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So the first female chancellor, which means someone that manages the money of the country,
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Eva in the UK.
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That's a big step for women.
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Gosh, that's cool.
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Yeah.
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I'm also like, I think it takes so long.
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But you know, no, no need to predict.
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We've got it.
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Exactly, but also it doesn't surprise me how much I know.
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Absolutely.
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Shit, we get for being bad at budgeting.
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If we've never had a public figure set a country's budget, or never thought that we could
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be responsible enough to be in charge of a country's money.
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So this is a huge win.
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And we want to show you some of the things that have come out of this particular budget
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and explain it in a way that makes sense, regardless of where you are, so that when your
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country is doing its budget, you understand the different levers that are being put.
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It's special for a number of other reasons, because a female delivered it and owns it.
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Secondly, it's special because it's the first budget in 15 years delivered by a Labour
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government.
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So we've had a Conservative party in the UK for many, many years, and then now we've got
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a Labour government.
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So they've got different agendas and different policies and things they focus on.
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Do you know what I find interesting is how many people I hear lean on the idea that Labour
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or left-wing parties don't know what they're doing when it comes to money?
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One's more socialist, so they're like, let's give the lower income people more money,
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and that's tax the wealthy, and that's exactly what Labour's done in this budget.
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This is why it's really important to vote as well in elections, because whatever party
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is in, could set a budget that actually impacts you directly.
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But it's also special because it is the biggest budget in a generation, and by that I mean
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it is the biggest increase in taxes that the UK has seen since the war.
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What?
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Yeah.
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Enjoy it!
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It's not great.
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Isn't that not good?
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So there's a $40 billion pound increase in taxes, and to put that in perspective.
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The whole amount of tax revenue that New Zealand gets is about the same amount.
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So the amount that has been increased in the UK is the total pool of money that New
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Zealand works with.
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Yeah.
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Lots of us are going to have, like, giant salary slaps, and that kind of thing.
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Yeah.
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Pretty much.
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When does it start?
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I need to make the most of my income.
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That's kind of staged increases depending on what thing we're talking about.
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They do give people a bit of time, so that, like, countenance is very generous enough.
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The preface of this is also that during COVID, which was only kind of four years ago, there
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was massive payouts, pretty much all over the world.
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People lost their jobs, businesses couldn't make money, and so governments were paying
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out whatever you want to call it furlough payments, or, like, subsidies, one-off payments,
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or all of that to help people get through.
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That now has to be made up.
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We just print money.
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Yeah, just print money.
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That's so good.
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I still genuinely don't understand why that's really good idea.
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I mean, you could secretly print money for yourself.
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That's why me.
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Can we just print a little bit more?
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Not the whole country.
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Just me.
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No, no, no.
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I mean, can't we just get a little bit more out there?
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Yeah.
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We'll talk about that another time.
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I know that's not a thing.
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Yeah.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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But no, the key takeaway is that a probably most relevant to our audience is they're raising
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the minimum wage.
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This is good.
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There's been inflation, you know, the minimum wage has been raised for a very long time,
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so it's going to increase from about 11 pounds, 44 to 12 pounds, 21.
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So it's about a 7% increase.
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Remember, inflation's been anywhere from around 9%.
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So a 7% increase is pretty good.
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OK, so the New Zealand minimum wage is around $21.
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Australia is about 23.
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And then what's the pound?
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Now it's going to be this.
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What's that?
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New Zealand dollars.
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Probably pretty soon.
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Four?
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Oh, OK.
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So minimum wage, you actually earn a little bit more in the UK.
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Yeah.
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So if you're a full-time worker over 21, that's an extra 1,400 pounds a year, which is helpful.
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I actually feel good.
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I like carrying them.
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And I was on minimum wage my first job.
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And I'm pretty sure it was like $6 or $7 an hour.
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Oh, this is in coecast.
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Yeah.
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Cafe.
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I remember asking for a $50 cent pay increase.
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And I was so nervous.
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Like, anyone would have thought I was asking for, like, double my salary.
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Good.
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On you, by the way, how old were you?
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About 14.
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10 to 15.
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Oh, I'm impressed by that.
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My mum made me do it.
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What was your case?
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I don't know what I've done with $50 cent more.
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I think I would have done it like five minutes before my shifting did.
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You know?
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Or, definitely.
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Would you always do that?
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You wait to have some important chat until literally you have a time limit.
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I know.
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Oh, gosh.
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This is actually something that's really worth knowing.
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If you don't know what tax bracket you're in, regardless of where you are in the world, you can Google that, right?
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You can say, what is the tax bracket?
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You can use it on Australia, whatever.
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And what it's called as a progressive tax rate, which means the more you earn, the more you pay.
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And you only pay it on the increase in that amount.
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Let's just use the UK as an example.
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So if you're between 12,000, around 12,000 pounds to around 50,000 pounds.
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On that amount, your tax is 20%.
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Yeah.
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But anything above that, up from 50,000 pounds to 125,000?
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Yeah.
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But one thing to remember with tax bands is that if you're going and asking your employer for a salary increase,
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because of inflation or because you've had a promotion or anything like that, just be aware,
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if that tips you over, say you were on 50,000, and you've increased it to 60,000.
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Or even 52.
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52, yeah.
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Then it might actually impact you more negatively than you think.
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So maybe a bit of a bit of homework for anyone listening.
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So I think actually regardless of where you are in the world, because this is super important.
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Yes.
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Yeah.
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Is to go and check what salary band your salary falls into.
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Yeah.
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Also, a little tip on this is if you were asking for, no, this is a tax evasion, actually don't know.
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Can you tell us what you were going to say?
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I mean, it's not tax evasion.
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I think it's quite genius.
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But if I went to my employer and I was earning 50k, and I still wanted to stay in that salary band,
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I could ask for perks that aren't monetary.
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Oh, that's quite clever.
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How can you pay for my car park or how can you pay for my gym membership or, you know,
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genius, that's not, that's not naughty.
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I think that's just been clever.
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Please don't come after me.
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Another thing quickly, another takeaway from the budget is that there's going to be a big increase.
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This is probably one of the biggest increases in national insurance contribution.
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So this is state pension.
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So this is what companies pay the state pension.
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Anyway, don't really need to know about the mechanics, but one thing to remember.
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Wait, what is it though?
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What is the state pension?
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We contribute to our own pension.
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Yeah.
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And then there's businesses contribute to a state, like a country pension.
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So it's pretty much an increased tax for businesses.
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But a lot of people have to pay that.
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Do we have to pay that?
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The curve?
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Yeah.
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What?
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Yeah.
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So a lot of people have been going, this is quite sneaky from the government.
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Because if we take the curve, for example, us having to increase wages for our staff,
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because we now have to pay more per person to a state pension fund.
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Now, means we have make less profit.
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So therefore, the way we're around that is we increase prices to our customers.
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So actually, it ends up really being massively detrimental on customers and consumers.
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Even though we have to pay more the way we get around that.
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So let's say, let's use, like, when we talk about the election episodes,
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if you haven't listened to that by the way, it's raising the curve episode.
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139 breaking down the US election.
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And in that, we spoke about how the different policies with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
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and how they are some are increasing corporate tax, some are decreasing.
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But at the end of the day, we end up paying that corporate tax as customers, as people.
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So this is okay.
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As an example, talking about this, let's just say coffee.
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Coffee.
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Coffee.
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Poppins now.
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Poppins, for anyone that doesn't know, is it my favorite question?
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They now have to contribute maybe a 5% increase in terms of expenses
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for this national insurance contribution that's increased.
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This coffee is now going to cost me more.
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Yeah.
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Because they have to pass that on.
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They have to make it up somewhere else.
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Oh, it's sneaky.
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So while you're going, oh, this is companies paying tax.
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This is increasing business tax.
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Doesn't relate to me.
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It does.
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Oh.
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Yeah.
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Annoyant.
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So just remember that whenever you hear about corporate tax, business tax.
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It does affect you.
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It does affect you.
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It does affect you.
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Lastly, another really interesting one is the increase in capital gains tax.
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Now, for any of you don't know what that is, that is tax that you pay
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on the increase in profit that you make from an investment.
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So wherever you are in the world, if you invest in something,
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whether it's a house, stocks, jewelry, anything that is going to increase in value,
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that's like a capital gain, right?
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Like the amount that that is valued at is increased.
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So if you buy something for $100 and you sell it for $120,
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your capital gains that you pay tax on is at $20.
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In New Zealand, we don't have capital gains tax.
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Why if we move to London?
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That's why the property market goes bananas.
15:18
Do you think that would ever change?
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Well, this is the thing.
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It's really hard for government to come out.
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Vote for me.
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I'm going to introduce capital gains.
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Everyone's like, absolutely not.
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We're literally one of the only countries in the world that doesn't have capital gains.
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So I think there's got to be a point.
15:32
Oh, touch wood.
15:33
Touch my head.
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Let's not.
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OK, woodwork.
15:36
I'm serious.
15:37
This is important.
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Anyway, in the UK, she's increased from 10% to 20%.
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It's huge.
15:42
Yes, it's doubled.
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So let's just say you sell a stock, you hold something in you seller,
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and you've made profit of $100.
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Yes.
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You before would have been taxed 10%.
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So 10 pounds, now that's 20 pounds.
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Yes.
16:00
So this is why ISIS, which is an investment savings account in the UK,
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are so good, because you get 20,000 pounds a year tax-free.
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And you either understood this until right now.
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So if you're in the UK and you're investing and you're not using an ISA,
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start using an ISA because you'll be paying capital gains tax if you're not.
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And that's huge.
16:23
It could be a lot of money.
16:24
Yeah.
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Especially if you make a lot of money on your resiments, you want to keep that.
16:28
I want to talk about Donald Trump.
16:31
I know.
16:32
But I just really quickly, I don't want to give him too much airtime.
16:34
But the fact that he went on Joe Rogan, the podcast,
16:38
how many 14 million people listen to that?
16:41
Like, do we think?
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34 million.
16:44
What?
16:45
Yeah.
16:46
Shit.
16:47
Oh my god, it's had 34 million views in three days.
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Is that a good thing?
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Because I'm so conflicted between giving someone airtime
16:54
and the giant audience that that will provide for him.
16:57
Or if that's actually going, people are going to say that
17:00
and be really illuminated with what he says in terms of,
17:03
oh my gosh, absolutely not.
17:05
I think it's the former.
17:07
Oh gosh.
17:08
I think the Trump media is quite interesting.
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Okay.
17:11
So Trump has his own company called Trump Media.
17:13
And it owns his social media platform.
17:15
It has been an absolute dog in terms of performance.
17:18
It's a public listed company.
17:19
Absolute dog.
17:20
Sorry.
17:21
As it has been doing that.
17:22
It's been absolutely terrible.
17:23
Yeah.
17:24
But this last month, it has taken off like a meme stock.
17:28
Like it has gone bananas.
17:31
And everyone's like, well, you know, markets don't lie.
17:34
He's going to get in.
17:35
He's, you know, markets are forward looking.
17:37
They're, you know, they're rational all of that.
17:39
That he's going to get in.
17:40
And then Bitcoin as well has just reached new highs.
17:43
So and he's pro cryptocurrency.
17:46
So he runs like, well, if you look at that, he's winning.
17:48
I mean, that might have changed by the time we released his podcast.
17:51
But fingers crossed.
17:53
I mean, right?
17:54
Not, not going to tell anyone about my political views.
17:56
I'd love for you to tell everyone about what's happening with Reddit.
17:59
Because when this listed as a public company,
18:01
I was really hooked on the way that they did it.
18:04
I thought it was so clear that they crowd funders.
18:06
So basically anyone that used Reddit got the chance to buy in
18:11
and support this company as a transition from being a private
18:14
to a public company, which they have 100 million daily active users.
18:18
So that's a big pool of investors to, to offer shares to.
18:22
But yes, it listed only in March this year on the New York Stock Exchange.
18:27
So it hasn't been listed that long.
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And it produced a financial result.
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So we're in the middle of earnings season.
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So lots of companies are reporting results.
18:37
And Reddit's result was the first time it had made a profit.
18:42
Which is so quick.
18:44
Yeah.
18:45
The fact that it's listed and it's public and it's already made a profit is huge.
18:48
Yeah.
18:49
And investors thought so too. She was up 40%.
18:52
Wow.
18:53
Yeah, it's done really, really well.
18:54
Honestly, when it first listed and when it was kind of that crowd fund approach.
18:59
For some reason, I felt like it would do kind of similar to all birds.
19:02
People, there would be all this hype.
19:04
People would buy into it and then it maybe like the reality of the business.
19:08
And how it was functioning might not translate to actually a profitable business
19:13
with the fact that it has its kind of cool.
19:15
It's interesting though.
19:18
Yeah.
19:19
Like these platforms like Netflix that has nearly 300 million users,
19:23
you know, and Spotify that has, you know, over 200 million users
19:28
and doesn't have the same impact on the share price.
19:31
I don't know why that is.
19:33
It's almost like, this is such a lame way to put it.
19:35
But you know the whole past, the people think.
19:37
Because there's so many people that rely on that for really genuine,
19:41
straight up information because it's not filtered by a massive media company.
19:45
I think that it's got such a community and that kind of makes sense to me.
19:51
Everyone wants to see this success.
19:53
Yeah.
19:54
And lastly, do you remember?
19:55
Hubba Bubba.
19:56
Oh my God, I loved icing sugar.
19:58
It was about six pieces in my mouth.
20:00
Same, and it was like they're a massive, just pure sugar.
20:03
And that you know how much sugar was in them.
20:05
Because your saliva ducts would just go through.
20:07
Or whatever you put it in for the first three minutes.
20:09
It was a flavor explosion and then you were chewing on plastic.
20:13
I just feel like my poor parents, like the amount of sugar highs I must have had
20:19
and then been an absolute brat of a child.
20:21
But why do I still do that as an adult?
20:22
Like I still have two and a half a block of chocolate.
20:25
Do the exact same thing.
20:27
Like I haven't learnt.
20:28
I haven't learnt.
20:29
I haven't learnt.
20:30
Yeah.
20:31
Well, the reason I'm mentioning Hubba Bubba is that Mars, the conventional company that owns
20:37
Eminem, Skittles, Bounty.
20:40
They actually own Riggles as well.
20:42
Yeah, they have acquired Kellogg's, which is no longer called Kellogg's.
20:46
It's called Kellanova.
20:47
But I try to make it sound real.
20:49
It's like Casanova.
20:50
And I can just imagine they're like millions of dollars that would have been spent on that.
20:56
Yeah.
20:57
And someone's coming up with a pinch.
20:58
Let's call it Kellanova.
21:00
Anyway, they have acquired Kellogg's for about $40 billion.
21:06
So this is one of the biggest deals in the kind of confectionery, snacking landscape.
21:14
But Mars is actually a private company.
21:16
It's been family-run, but it now generates about $50 billion in revenue.
21:21
So it's massive.
21:22
Billion.
21:23
Billion.
21:24
God, it's a lot of money.
21:25
Yeah.
21:26
Oh, my God, I have to finish on this.
21:27
It was in our Curve Weekly newsletter.
21:29
But you and I'm loving how much you're flocking the newsletter.
21:32
She does put a lot of money in it.
21:34
And it's like when I sit down to write the newsletter, it's like, what child do I love more?
21:40
The podcast or the newsletter?
21:42
It's so ill.
21:43
Because when I get a really juicy piece of news and I put it in the newsletter, I feel sorry for the podcast.
21:49
And then if I put in the podcast, I feel sorry for the newsletter.
21:51
But then I don't want people to like read the newsletter, be like, oh, I wasn't in the podcast.
21:56
Anyway, it's a real mind-boggle on a Thursday.
21:59
Just so you know, Blake, I'm going to do your real solid plug here.
22:03
Anyone that listens to this podcast, sign up to our newsletter.
22:06
I'm going to put the link in the podcast show notes.
22:08
Because honestly, it is true what she says.
22:10
She makes so much effort to make sure there's good content in both.
22:13
So just make sure you're sign up and you get it.
22:16
And I love both my children.
22:17
I love equally.
22:19
But yes, in the newsletter, speaking of large amounts of money,
22:23
Russia has fined Google, 20 Desimon, which is 20 billion trillion trillion dollars.
22:31
Google banned certain YouTube channels and Russia and Russia's like, this is unacceptable.
22:37
We want to be able to broadcast in Russia on your platforms.
22:41
So we've fined you more than the entire global economy.
22:49
It's 36 zeros.
22:51
No.
22:52
2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.
22:58
So that's only halfway through it.
22:59
I'm not going to like it.
23:00
But that is actually outrageous.
23:02
Yeah.
23:03
It's so good.
23:04
Who would have done that?
23:06
When asked about the lawsuit during a call with reporters on Thursday,
23:09
the Kremlin spokesperson admitted that he can't even pronounce this figure.
23:18
And CNN, his contact to Google for a comment.
23:21
And in its quarterly earnings,
23:23
publishers which were amazing, by the way,
23:26
the company referred to its ongoing legal matters on Russia.
23:31
That's so funny.
23:33
Anyway.
23:34
And then you, when they got that survey,
23:36
being like, you have to pay 20 desolion, whatever it's called,
23:39
surely they would have said laughing.
23:41
Imagine the interest on that if you didn't pay it.
23:44
But also, what's the likelihood that they get through?
23:47
Surely.
23:48
Yeah.
23:49
I think it's just more of like a bit of an ego, big contests.
23:51
I mean, what are main sense if they just find them a Google?
23:55
Which is way more than a desolion?
23:57
Oh, is it?
23:58
Yeah.
23:59
I mean, that would be quite ironic.
24:00
Is it really?
24:01
I thought Google was less.
24:02
Oh.
24:03
Okay.
24:04
How many?
24:05
Really?
24:06
Zeroes are in a Google.
24:08
100.
24:10
So they've been fined 36 zeros.
24:13
Honestly, it's so stupid.
24:16
And I mean, they should have just find them a Google 100 zeros.
24:20
That would have been very symbolic.
24:22
Anyway, we'll leave you on that little bit of fun news for...
24:25
You're going to answer some questions that came in from the community.
24:28
But I think we just have talked for way too long.
24:30
Yeah.
24:31
But if you do have any place in them through, we're collating all of them
24:33
so that we can make sure we answer some of them at the end of each curve weekly.
24:36
Whether that's on like where you listen to your podcast,
24:39
or on Instagram, email or whatever works.
24:41
We've got a big, amazing filing system these days.
24:44
Amazing.
24:45
Copy paste.
24:46
Copy paste.
24:47
Copy paste.
24:48
Okay.
24:49
Have a good week, everyone.
24:50
Bye.
24:51
Thank you so much for listening to the Curve Weekly.
24:53
Make sure you hit the subscribe button to stay up to date
24:55
with all the many business stock market news.
24:57
And if you like what you heard, we would love a review.
25:00
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25:01
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25:02
We would love a review.
25:03
If you didn't hate it, please.
25:04
Yeah.
25:05
Don't leave one if you hate it.
25:06
No, but in all seriousness, could you please leave a review?
25:09
Because it really helps other people find our cute little podcast.
25:12
And we hope you have a good week and see you next Monday.
25:15
Bye.
25:16
Bye.
25:17
See you next Tuesday.
25:19
Bye.
25:20
See you next Tuesday.
25:21
I mean Monday.
25:22
No, actually though.
25:23
New episodes out every Tuesday.
25:24
Okay, quickly, the Curve was created to empower and educate you about investing,
25:25
but we are not financial advisors.
25:27
Our platform exists for educational purposes only, and it doesn't provide personalized investing
25:41
advice for your individual needs and should not be relied upon to make an investment or financial decision.
25:46
And always remember to do your own research before making any investment or financial decision.
25:50
We're here for any knowledge and support you need, but the final call is always yours.
25:54
And thanks for being here.
25:56
You got this.
25:57
Yeah, we know you got this.